morning matters - th.rhbtradesmart.com...minor international plc, a food and hospitality group, set...

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See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems‟ EFA TM Platform 19-Nov-2013 Morning Matters WHAT’S INSIDE On The Platter Economic Highlights (3Q13 GDP Growth Weaker Than Expected) Thailand‟s real GDP expanded at 2.7% y-o-y in 3Q 2013, slightly slower than the revised +2.9% registered in the 2Q and compared with +5.4% in the 1Q. This came below consensus estimates of 2.9% and our forecast of 3.3% and was attributed to the deterioration in domestic demand, on account of declines registered by consumer and business spending due to a rising household debt burden. These were, however, partially mitigated by the increase in net exports helped by a sharp slowdown in imports, though exports of goods & services continued to sustain its decline. Industrial Estate (Neutral): Still Unexciting In industrial estates, profitability for AMATA, HEMRAJ and TICON has been on track so far but the sector‟s bottomline was dragged down by ROJNA‟s net loss. 9M13 profit grew by only 2% y-o-y while investment applications for 10M13 slipped 3.6% y-o-y. HEMRAJ is the top performer in land sales to date. Maintain NEUTRAL. Retail Non-cyclical (Underweight): Growth Momentum Slows Continued slowdown in domestic consumption pressured SSSG to drop further in 3Q13, except MAKRO and CPN, as retailers increased SG&A expenses to boost sales, leading to margin squeeze. ROBINS and GLOBAL risk earnings downgrade as they were hit the most. Going forward, we see no significant SSSG rebound and softer 4Q13 earnings as the Consumer Confident Index declined in October. Given the rich valuations, we remain bearish on the sector outlook. MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS Bad-loan rate holds steady Myanmar dismisses rumours, confirms ITD deal still in place NBTC plans 'fair' digital bids Erawan dips toe in budget hotel pool Minor unveils B37bn strategy ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS Foreign Buying of U.S. Portfolio Assets Gains on Asia Demand Dudley „More Hopeful‟ Growth Rebounding as Fiscal Drag Wanes Homebuilder Sentiment in U.S. Held in November at Four-Month Low Greeks Turn to Tarot as Market Revival Belies Jobless Gloom Draghi‟s Rate Cut Puts ECB in Holding Pattern Until 2014 SET Intra-Day Graph Source: Bloomberg Key Market Indices (18 November 2013) Value Chg % Chg % YTD SET 1423.96 3.30 0.2% 2.3% SET50 974.16 3.09 0.3% 3.0% SET100 2140.83 5.83 0.3% 3.0% Dow Jones 15976.02 14.32 0.1% 21.9% S&P500 1791.53 -6.65 -0.4% 25.6% Nasdaq 3949.07 -36.90 -0.9% 30.8% FTSE 6723.46 30.02 0.4% 14.0% FSSTI 3203.03 1.76 0.1% 1.1% Hang Seng 23660.06 627.91 2.7% 4.4% Nikkei 15164.30 -50.17 -0.3% 45.9% KLCI 1792.39 2.52 0.1% 6.1% SHANGHAI SE 2197.22 61.39 2.9% -3.2% JCI 4393.59 58.15 1.3% 1.8% SET 5-yr avg 2012 2013F PE (x) 13.5 12.6 14.7 P/BV (x) 1.8 2.2 2.2 Yield (%) 4.0 3.0 3.2 Key Statistics SET Value by investor Type: Daily Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm) Institution 1,232.13 1,168.28 63.85 Proprietary 2,921.93 2,240.96 680.97 Foreign 8,137.87 8,714.09 -576.22 Retail 13,778.05 13,946.65 -168.60 SET Value by investor Type MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) Institution 9,635.78 90,796.42 Proprietary 2,373.46 876.96 Foreign -22,507.75 -127,759.43 Retail 10,498.51 36,086.05 SET50 Index Future Long Short Net MTD YTD Institution 2,814 3,313 -499 -824 10,477 Foreign 1,809 1,735 74 -3,299 -9,888 Local 4,626 4,201 425 4,123 -589 Foreign Fund Flows (USDm) Last MTD YTD YTD(%) -18.3 -715.2 -4,411.5 -431.3

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Page 1: Morning Matters - th.rhbtradesmart.com...Minor International Plc, a food and hospitality group, set its five-year investment plan for 2014-2018 at 30-37 billion baht to expand both

See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems‟ EFATM

Platform

19-Nov-2013

Morning Matters

EFATxtMacro|

EFATxtRisks|

EFATxtGrowth|

EFATxtValue|

WHAT’S INSIDE

On The Platter

Economic Highlights (3Q13 GDP Growth Weaker Than Expected)

Thailand‟s real GDP expanded at 2.7% y-o-y in 3Q 2013, slightly slower than the revised +2.9% registered in the 2Q and compared with +5.4% in the 1Q. This came below consensus estimates of 2.9% and our forecast of 3.3% and was attributed to the deterioration in domestic demand, on account of declines registered by consumer and business spending due to a rising household debt burden. These were, however, partially mitigated by the increase in net exports helped by a sharp slowdown in imports, though exports of goods & services continued to sustain its decline.

s real GDP expanded at 2.7% y-o-y Industrial Estate (Neutral): Still Unexciting

In industrial estates, profitability for AMATA, HEMRAJ and TICON has been on track so far but the sector‟s bottomline was dragged down by ROJNA‟s net loss. 9M13 profit grew by only 2% y-o-y while investment applications for 10M13 slipped 3.6% y-o-y. HEMRAJ is the top performer in land sales to date. Maintain NEUTRAL.

Retail – Non-cyclical (Underweight): Growth Momentum Slows

Continued slowdown in domestic consumption pressured SSSG to drop

further in 3Q13, except MAKRO and CPN, as retailers increased SG&A

expenses to boost sales, leading to margin squeeze. ROBINS and

GLOBAL risk earnings downgrade as they were hit the most. Going

forward, we see no significant SSSG rebound and softer 4Q13 earnings as

the Consumer Confident Index declined in October. Given the rich

valuations, we remain bearish on the sector outlook.

MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS

Bad-loan rate holds steady

Myanmar dismisses rumours, confirms ITD deal still in place

NBTC plans 'fair' digital bids

Erawan dips toe in budget hotel pool

Minor unveils B37bn strategy

ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

Foreign Buying of U.S. Portfolio Assets Gains on Asia Demand

Dudley „More Hopeful‟ Growth Rebounding as Fiscal Drag Wanes

Homebuilder Sentiment in U.S. Held in November at Four-Month Low

Greeks Turn to Tarot as Market Revival Belies Jobless Gloom

Draghi‟s Rate Cut Puts ECB in Holding Pattern Until 2014

SET Intra-Day Graph

Source: Bloomberg

Key Market Indices (18 November 2013)

Value Chg % Chg % YTD

SET 1423.96 3.30 0.2% 2.3%

SET50 974.16 3.09 0.3% 3.0%

SET100 2140.83 5.83 0.3% 3.0%

Dow Jones 15976.02 14.32 0.1% 21.9%

S&P500 1791.53 -6.65 -0.4% 25.6%

Nasdaq 3949.07 -36.90 -0.9% 30.8%

FTSE 6723.46 30.02 0.4% 14.0%

FSSTI 3203.03 1.76 0.1% 1.1%

Hang Seng 23660.06 627.91 2.7% 4.4%

Nikkei 15164.30 -50.17 -0.3% 45.9%

KLCI 1792.39 2.52 0.1% 6.1%

SHANGHAI SE 2197.22 61.39 2.9% -3.2%

JCI 4393.59 58.15 1.3% 1.8%

SET 5-yr avg 2012 2013F

PE (x) 13.5 12.6 14.7

P/BV (x) 1.8 2.2 2.2

Yield (%) 4.0 3.0 3.2

Key Statistics

SET Value by investor Type: Daily

Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm)

Institution 1,232.13 1,168.28 63.85

Proprietary 2,921.93 2,240.96 680.97

Foreign 8,137.87 8,714.09 -576.22

Retail 13,778.05 13,946.65 -168.60

SET Value by investor Type

MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) Institution 9,635.78 90,796.42

Proprietary 2,373.46 876.96

Foreign -22,507.75 -127,759.43

Retail 10,498.51 36,086.05

SET50 Index Future

Long Short Net MTD YTD

Institution 2,814 3,313 -499 -824 10,477

Foreign 1,809 1,735 74 -3,299 -9,888

Local 4,626 4,201 425 4,123 -589

Foreign Fund Flows (USDm) Last MTD YTD YTD(%) -18.3 -715.2 -4,411.5 -431.3

Page 2: Morning Matters - th.rhbtradesmart.com...Minor International Plc, a food and hospitality group, set its five-year investment plan for 2014-2018 at 30-37 billion baht to expand both

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Media Highlights

Bad-loan rate holds steady

Despite an increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) and overdue consumer loans during the third quarter, the bad-loan ratio remains stable due to an increase in loans outstanding. Anupap Kuvinichkul, senior director of the financial institutions strategy department, said although there has been a decline in the credit quality of consumer loans, this is not a big concern since the loan proportion is minimal and commercial banks have tightened approvals. NPLs outstanding rose to 266.3 billion baht for the three months to September from the second quarter's 263.9 billion baht, while the percentage of gross and net NPLs remained stable at 2.2% and 1% of total lending, respectively. The Bank of Thailand defines loans overdue by 30-90 days as special-mention loans. NPLs and overdue loans outstanding have climbed on the back of the government's domestic consumption stimulus measures, including the tax rebate for the first-time car buyers. Special-mention loans outstanding at the end of September rose to 269.1 billion baht from 260.1 billion baht in June, making up 2.2% of total loans. (Bangkok Post) Myanmar dismisses rumours, confirms ITD deal still in place

The Myanmar government has clarified that a 75-year concession granted to Italian-Thai Development Plc (ITD) in Dawei remains in place but that construction work has stopped to facilitate the participation of international investors. Set Aung, adviser to the Myanmar President Office, brushed aside reports that the government has terminated the concession to ITD to develop a special economic zone and a deep-sea port in Dawei, eastern Myanmar. Energy Minister Pongsak Raktapongpaisal, who headed the Thai team that visited Dawei earlier this month, said last week that the Myanmar government planned to seize the concession awarded to ITD, Thailand's largest construction company, after the Dawei project had been delayed for many years. Mr Pongsak, who was recently named head of a special task force to kick-start the Dawei project, also noted that the Myanmar government would call for international bidding for Dawei early next year. "It is not true that Myanmar government wants ITD out," Mr Set Aung told the Bangkok Post yesterday. "However, ITD has to stop all its work to have due diligence assessments conducted on these projects. Without due diligence assessment, no other investor will be able to participate in any projects related to the Dawei SEZ development. And with no other investors' involvement, the Dawei project will never be successful," Mr Set Aung said in an email yesterday. (Bangkok Post)

NBTC plans 'fair' digital bids

The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) will implement best practices for digital TV bidders to reinforce auction transparency and fairness. Col Natee Sukonrat, chairman of the NBTC's broadcasting committee, said the new regulation will cover the whole process of the digital TV auctions such as the preparation of bidders and the implementation of best practices for bidders. The NBTC will announce the date, time and venue of the auctions at least seven days in advance for bidders in each category, starting from variety with high definition (HD), variety with standard definition (SD), news and children's channels. The regulator allows only five representatives from each bidder to enter the auction room. The bidder must submit the list of its representatives to the NBTC at least five days in advance.(Bangkok Post) Erawan dips toe in budget hotel pool

Erawan Group, a SET-listed hotel developer, plans to open 11 new budget hotels and a mid-scale option this year as part of its move into the budget hotel segment. The company, which operates 16 hotels under the Grand Hyatt, JW Marriott, Renaissance, and Ibis brands, will open with the expansion of Holiday Inn Pattaya next year. Erawan allotted 2.5 billion baht in investment from 2013 to 2014 to finance hotel construction and expansion. The 10 two-star hotels will operate under the Hop Inn brand, Erawan's own brand, with half opened in the second quarter next year and the others in the final quarter of 2014, said Kanyarat Krisnathevin, chief financial officer. Another economy hotel will be opened under the Ibis brand in Krabi. While the new mid-scale offering is Mercure Pattaya, said Thanachart Securities. "Demand for two-star hotels is increasing," she said. The fast-growing middle-income sector and low-cost airlines have stoked demand for economy hotels recently. "By the end of 2014, the company's rooms will rise to 5,290 from 3,800 in 16 hotels presently," said Ms Kanyarat.The company expects tourists next year will increase by 8% from 26.2 million projected for this year. Its occupancy rate may grow to 83% in 2014 from 81% this year. It plans to raise its room rate by 10% on average. (Bangkok Post) Minor unveils B37bn strategy

Minor International Plc, a food and hospitality group, set its five-year investment plan for 2014-2018 at 30-37 billion baht to expand both its food and hotel businesses. Of the total, 20-25 billion will be used to diversify its existing business, while 10-12 billion baht is for new investment opportunities, likely hotel acquisitions, said Chaiyapat Paitoon, vice-president for strategic planning. "With our aggressive investment plan, we hope our earnings will rise 15-20% and the return on investment will be 16% over the next five years," he said. Minor's board approved this five-year investment plan last month. For its food business, the company will keep growing its existing food brands and allow more investors to become franchisees. Its major fast-food chains include The Pizza Company, Sizzler, Swensen's, Dairy Queen and Burger King. For its hotel business, it plans to operate at least 150 hotels in Thailand and abroad in five years. Minor has 100 hotels of its own and under management contracts for the Anantara, Avani, Oaks, Per Aquum, Marriott, Four Seasons, St. Regis, and Elewana labels. (Bangkok Post)

Page 3: Morning Matters - th.rhbtradesmart.com...Minor International Plc, a food and hospitality group, set its five-year investment plan for 2014-2018 at 30-37 billion baht to expand both

See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

Economic Highlights

Foreign Buying of U.S. Portfolio Assets Gains on Asia Demand

International investors were net buyers of U.S. long-term portfolio assets in September as demand strengthened from China and Japan, the two largest foreign holders of Treasuries. The net long-term portfolio investment inflow was $25.5 billion after a revised $9.8 billion outflow in August, the Treasury Department said in a statement today in Washington. China raised its holdings of U.S. government debt by 2 percent and Japan boosted its by 2.5 percent, the department said. The data cover the month in which the Federal Reserve decided against cutting back its bond purchases at a Sept. 17-18 meeting. The Fed buys $85 billion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities each month to keep downward pressure on borrowing costs. Officials will decide to pare purchases to $70 billion a month at their March 18-19 meeting, according to the median of economist estimates in a Bloomberg survey on Nov. 8. (Bloomberg) Dudley ‘More Hopeful’ Growth Rebounding as Fiscal Drag Wanes

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said he‟s “getting more hopeful” the U.S. economy is gaining strength as the drag from fiscal policy wanes. “While growth in 2013 has been disappointing, I believe a good case can be made that the pace of growth will pick up some in 2014 and then somewhat more in 2015,” Dudley, 60, said in a speech today in Flushing, New York. “As growth picks up, I expect to see more substantial improvement in labor market conditions.” Economic growth isn‟t yet sufficient to ensure the substantial labor market gains that the Fed has said are a prerequisite to any reduction in its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases, Dudley said. Policy makers, aiming to bring down unemployment now at 7.3 percent, have pumped up the central bank‟s balance sheet to a record $3.91 trillion. “We‟ve seen quite a bit of improvement” as unemployment has dropped, “but I don‟t think we‟ve really seen enough growth momentum to give us confidence we‟re going to continue to see” gains in the outlook for jobs, Dudley said in response to an audience question. (Bloomberg) Homebuilder Sentiment in U.S. Held in November at Four-Month Low

Confidence among U.S. homebuilders held in November at a four-month low as buyer traffic and sales outlooks retreated. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment gauge was unchanged at 54 from a revised October reading that was weaker than initially estimated, the Washington-based group reported today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey projected it would come in at 55. Readings above 50 mean more respondents reported good market conditions. The 16-day partial government shutdown and political wrangling over the nation‟s budget have taken a toll on consumer sentiment, causing some would-be buyers to delay spending decisions. Higher mortgage rates also are holding back gains in real estate, which has been a source of strength for the economic expansion. “Policy and economic uncertainty is undermining consumer confidence,” David Crowe, chief economist at the builders association, said in a statement. “The fact that builder confidence remains above 50 is an encouraging sign, considering the unresolved debt and federal budget issues cause builders and consumers to remain on the sideline.”Estimates in a Bloomberg survey of 51 economists ranged from 52 to 58 after a previously reported October reading of 55. (Bloomberg)

Greeks Turn to Tarot as Market Revival Belies Jobless Gloom

In the abandoned building that once housed the Athens Stock Exchange, artist Teo is shuffling between the Fool, the Magician and the Devil in a Tarot card reading to divine the fate of the crippled Greek nation. Above his head, a flickering electronic installation depicts share prices from 2007 near the market‟s euro-era peak, before six years of recession and successive bailouts wiped about 48 billion euros ($65 billion) off the economy. Temporary home to the Athens Biennale arts exhibition, the disused trading floor has become a mausoleum of former wealth and a hotbed of conjecture. Economists and artists have come together to tackle the question on all Greek minds: now what? The byword for the financial ordeal that threatened to tear apart the euro, Greece remains the biggest drag on the continent‟s ability to overcome it. With the economy 23 percent smaller and more than a quarter of the working population jobless, Greeks are girding for more pain just as fellow debt crisis victim Ireland stops relying on rescue loans. (Bloomberg)

Draghi’s Rate Cut Puts ECB in Holding Pattern Until 2014

Mario Draghi won‟t follow his unexpected interest-rate cut with new liquidity injections into the financial system next month, economists say. While a majority in a Bloomberg survey say the European Central Bank‟s most probable next move is a measure such as long-term loans, 77 percent of those see it happening in the first or second quarter of 2014. Just 9 percent see Draghi taking action in December. The ECB‟s surprise policy move this month, which most respondents in the survey said was warranted, took the benchmark rate to a record low of 0.25 percent. That‟s sparked speculation among economists and investors how far policy makers are prepared to go if inflation, already less than half of the ECB‟s target, slows further, or the economic recovery weakens. “The ECB wants to understand the effect the rate cut has had on liquidity, on credit growth and on monetary aggregates,” said Matteo Cominetta, European economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in London. “If the effects are not significant, they will go for a new LTRO. I think they will have to act again.” (Bloomberg)

Page 4: Morning Matters - th.rhbtradesmart.com...Minor International Plc, a food and hospitality group, set its five-year investment plan for 2014-2018 at 30-37 billion baht to expand both

See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

Outperform

Current Target Upside/

Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks

(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013F 2013F

AAV Neutral 5.30 5.09 -4.0 16.0 0.0

CENTEL Buy 39.00 45.00 15.4 35.3 0.8

CPN Buy 46.00 66.00 43.5 16.4 1.4

ERW Buy 4.56 6.75 48.0 12.3 2.9 .

MINT Buy 26.00 32.50 25.0 21.8 1.0

NOK Buy 24.40 30.80 26.2 11.6 4.3

Page 5: Morning Matters - th.rhbtradesmart.com...Minor International Plc, a food and hospitality group, set its five-year investment plan for 2014-2018 at 30-37 billion baht to expand both

18 15 14 13 12 18 15 14 13 12

1 AOT 59.8 -52.2 82.6 -1.6 53.7 KBANK -357.7 -144.3 -30.6 -525.6 -195.7 BTS 1,071.3 BAY -2,637.1 INTUCH 49,433.2 SCC -11,730.1

2 BBL 44.2 -143.0 -52.8 -48.3 -209.1 BAY -149.3 -351.9 -359.2 -752.0 -595.2 ADVANC 748.7 LH -963.3 ADVANC 17,887.8 LH -2,939.6

3 CPN 22.3 -1.2 -27.5 -27.2 -23.1 SIRI -61.3 -33.7 -14.9 -30.9 -29.9 PTTEP 565.4 DTAC -942.5 BAY 15,206.0 SIRI -1,129.0

4 LH 16.9 -10.1 -13.8 -48.2 -70.2 PTTGC -48.1 -110.0 -128.4 -174.3 -36.0 EGCO 466.3 INTUCH -702.0 PTT 14,370.0 CK -683.3

5 MAJOR 13.7 -0.9 4.3 5.4 3.8 DTAC -44.3 -372.4 -62.8 -150.7 -23.3 BEC 205.4 BBL -450.0 DTAC 12,754.8 DEMCO -579.1

6 DELTA 13.1 -14.8 7.2 10.4 30.6 CPALL -29.0 -132.9 67.9 -103.1 -13.0 SCB 189.9 SIRI -218.0 PTTEP 12,817.0 UV -414.0

7 THAI 3.2 -42.7 -8.9 -1.6 -4.7 IVL -20.6 -13.9 3.7 -22.0 -10.7 BANPU 179.9 TRUE -213.3 PTTGC 11,660.6 JAS -281.2

8 EVER 2.6 -1.0 -1.0 4.3 -0.2 CPF -18.9 -29.9 56.4 -21.0 107.6 DELTA 159.9 JAS -123.3 STEC 5,161.7 NOBLE -334.5

9 AAV 1.5 -2.6 -8.3 -2.8 -8.4 SPALI -13.3 -14.8 -1.7 -3.0 -1.0 TMB 158.6 BCH -115.2 AOT 5,200.4 ASP -305.7

10 RASA 0.7 -1.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 THRE -10.6 -26.8 0.8 -1.2 3.5 PS 152.1 LPN -113.8 CPF 4,874.6 RML -258.0

11 PRANDA 0.3 -0.7 0.0 1.6 0.0 AP -10.3 -25.5 9.5 -62.9 -4.0 CPN 116.7 THCOM -101.4 CPN 4,432.7 MINT-W4 -238.0

12 ERW 0.1 -4.0 -6.2 -4.9 -1.5 EARTH -7.3 -0.7 0.4 -5.2 -0.5 STEC 98.7 MINT -93.0 CPALL 4,268.8 TRC -221.1

13 ASP 0.1 -1.2 1.7 0.8 -0.0 LPN -6.5 -33.6 -15.1 -0.6 -25.7 MAJOR 83.7 RATCH -87.0 TOP 4,534.3 EARTH -230.5

14 MJD 0.0 -3.5 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 AH -3.8 -1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 CPF 80.4 AOT -77.7 BIGC 4,267.2 IRPC -201.3

15 SMT 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 TWFP -3.2 -3.0 -0.9 -2.1 -4.7 BIGC 72.2 ERW -75.8 MAKRO 4,184.3 MCOT -198.9

16 LANNA 0.0 -7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ASK -2.8 -0.8 -0.7 -1.8 0.5 BEAUTY 67.5 TISCO -72.3 BTS 3,758.8 GUNKUL -195.4

17 UVAN -0.3 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 ITD -2.7 -2.8 -4.5 -14.6 1.1 GFPT 67.4 IVL -71.5 EGCO 3,568.5 LRH -188.8

18 JMART -0.6 -1.0 -0.5 -0.6 0.6 SUC -1.9 -4.0 -2.2 -3.7 0.0 DEMCO 62.9 BCP -62.9 THAI 3,277.4 GLOBAL -179.6

19 KCE -0.6 -1.0 -0.8 -0.1 1.1 SNC -1.4 -10.7 -5.3 -0.4 -1.3 KKP 59.1 ITD -60.1 DELTA 3,330.2 SINGER -162.2

20 INET -0.7 -1.8 0.3 0.0 -0.3 BMCL -1.3 -5.5 0.8 -2.8 -1.2 TKS 52.4 IRPC -59.9 MINT 3,249.4 TWFP -164.1

% % of % of

Turn. paidup paidup

1 GJS 34.23 1 TISCO-P 66.16 65.86

2 SIRI 19.97 2 BBL 30.38 29.99

3 TRUE 3.62 3 KBANK 27.77 28.50

4 TMB 6.48 4 INTUCH 23.04 5.41

5 BTS-W3 1.13 5 SPALI 21.83 17.94

6 LH 44.33 6 E-W1 21.61 22.27

7 KTB 14.41 7 GOLD-W1 20.03 14.87

8 IEC 1.08 8 THRE 17.65 15.50

9 EMC-W3 14.99 9 LPN 16.91 21.73

10 GSTEL 7.87 10 LH 16.74 21.18

11 BTS 6.59 11 DTAC 15.63 13.33

12 DTAC 62.85 12 TCAP 15.51 12.60

13 JAS 1.36 13 TWFP 15.15 24.77

14 KBANK 42.47 14 THIP 14.50 12.64

15 PTTGC 25.93 15 EGCO 14.42 10.17

16 N-PARK 1.03 16 AP 13.75 12.92

17 BAY 11.26 17 LALIN 13.70 13.53

18 BLAND 0.40 18 STEC 13.18 7.26

19 HEMRAJ 30.37 19 PRANDA 12.98 14.59

20 EMC 14.04 20 GBX 12.77 13.54

Source : SET.OR.TH

-433,300

3,815,700

2,652,600

1,909,600

1,768,400 4,421,000

-1,964,000

5,619,5002,593,100

265,000 4,142,200

4,447,200

561,600

1,241,600 3,205,600

4,428,0812,518,481

4,377,300 4,938,900

2,630,700 6,753,800 9,384,500 -4,123,100

5,787,500 3,191,600 8,979,100

526,465,000 -608,881

2,595,900

3,026,400

14,405,860 2,354,634 95,060,550

8,000,000 1,160,000 1,011,300

1,125,200

111,592,900

75,927,784 53,541,225

393,293,857 884,200

147,453,300 1,089,076,392

4,407,200 -3,877,200

200,939,595 86,117,327

53,127,000

139,055,400 -3,541,300

3,218,100575,800 4,369,700

3,763,900

2,748,600 1,623,400

111,300 3,652,600

3,793,900

4,372,000

409,144,800

1,525,106,540

2,859,920,138

113,007,600

59,270,000

367,964,647

825,000,000

315,525,949 2,367,811,000 370,111,476

198,146,120 161,065,653 1,277,816,397

1,475,698,768

10,025,921,523

249,585,086 320,609,239

1,678,177,677 2,123,251,472

370,342,718

3,512,494,860

74,197,298 74,970,598

620,066,733 544,461,149

74,978,228 77,281,246

8,901,600

7,540,000 5,130,000

7,635,300 6,037,900

17,064,690 -10,785,892

12,670,000 2,410,000

13,673,200 1,597,400 347,000,000

3,139,399 13,925,291

9,901,600 -7,901,600

11,785,312 1,678,600 13,463,912 10,106,712

1,000,000

3,206,420,305

-5,247,695

1,716,553,249

2,393,260,193

738,901,856

307,949,569 374,736,124

-560,200 173,363,101 10,192,200 10,752,400 20,944,600

572,486,791 -29,791,900

664,548,225 682,155,834

579,827,974 30,663,100 31,534,300

8,439,800 13,687,495 22,127,295

NetBuy Sell Total

1,908,842,894

11,947,800 39,965,200 22,400 22,300 51,913,000 -28,017,400

871,200

33,858

Net Buy Net Sell Net Buy Net Sell

2 Jan- 18 Nov 13Nov 13

(Last)

NVDR Shrs. Paid up CapitalNVDR Shrs.

18-Nov-13 2-Jan-13

Most Active Values (Btmn)

19 November 2013

Nov 13 Nov 13

Total Volume Shares

NVDR Trading Data by Stock (Volume) NVDR Shares to Total Paid-up Shares(%)

NET BUY NET SELL Month to Date Year to Date

THAI NVDR : Top Ranking

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Platform 1

Sector Update, 19 November 2013

Industrial Estate Neutral BUY

Still Unexciting

Macro

3

Risks

3

Growth

2

Value

2

Revenue

THBm 3Q13 y-o-y q-o-q 9M13 y-o-y

AMATA 2,323 75% 15% 5,468 48%

HEMRAJ 1,955 35% -16% 6,320 36%

ROJNA 2,107 25% 13% 5,704 25%

TICON 430 14% 41% 1,021 -39%

Total 6,815 41% 5% 18,513 27% Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Net profit

THBm 3Q13 y-o-y q-o-q 9M13 y-o-y

AMATA 626 83% -8% 1,440 72%

HEMRAJ 625 1% 12% 2,086 30%

ROJNA (119) -136% -56% (41) -104%

TICON 86 12% -48% 507 28%

Total 1,218 -11% 7% 3,992 2% Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Margins

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Wanida Geisler +66 2862 9748

License No.17602 [email protected]

P/E (x) P/B (x) Yield (%)

Dec-13F Dec-13F Dec-13F

Amata Corporation THB17.0 THB22.0 10.5 2.2 3.8 BUY

Hemaraj Land & Dev THB3.3 THB4.0 13.1 2.7 3.8 TRADING BUY

Rojana Ind Park THB7.6 THB10.6 na 1.5 5.8 NEUTRAL

Ticon Industrial Connection PCL THB17.7 THB24.0 11.1 1.5 6.0 BUY

Company Name Price Target Rating

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

In industrial estates, profitability for AMATA, HEMRAJ and TICON has been on track so far but the sector’s bottomline was dragged down by ROJNA’s net loss. 9M13 profit grew by only 2% y-o-y while investment applications for 10M13 slipped 3.6% y-o-y. HEMRAJ is the top performer in land sales to date. Maintain NEUTRAL.

Revenue continues to rise. The industrial estate sector’s revenue in

3Q13 was at THB6.8bn (+41% y-o-y and +5% q-o-q) while 9M13 turnover expanded by 27% y-o-y to THB18.5bn, with Amata (AMATA), and Hemaraj Land and Development (HEMRAJ) leading the pack. Meanwhile, Rojana Industrial Park (ROJNA) saw a gradual pickup in q-o-q revenue in 9M13, as its power plant had resumed operations. Ticon Industrial Connection (TICON) also reported an improvement in revenue following an increase in its occupancy rate. We expect 4Q13 to be the peak quarter, boosted by TICON divesting assets worth THB6.5bn to a newly-established property fund. (Please refer to the table at the bottom of this page for the valuations, ratings and TPs of stocks)

Stable EBITDA and net margins. We note that ROJNA’s EBITDA

margin turned positive in 3Q13 - the first time since 4Q12 - although its net margin is still in the red. AMATA and TICON saw their EBITDAs and net margins slip, while HEMRAJ’s revenue and margins improved as the Gheco One power plant, its 35%-owned associate, resumed operations after a maintenance shutdown in 2Q13.

Unexciting profit. The sector’s 3Q13 profit of THB1.22bn was

unexciting, falling 11% y-o-y but rising 7% q-o-q. 9M13 earnings, on the other hand, increased by a mere 2% as ROJNA’s loss dragged on profitability. AMATA led profit growth for 9M12, at 72%, while HEMRAJ and TICON registered a y-o-y growth of 30% and 28% respectively. In the meantime, ROJNA remained in the red.

4Q13 will be the sector’s peak quarter. TICON’s asset divestment

worth THB6.5bn will help to fuel the sector’s growth. On the other hand, whether ROJNA turns profitable will greatly depend on its ability to realise revenue from land sales at its Prachinburi estate. This 4000-rai new estate is almost 80% sold, and Honda (which occupies the majority of the space) has begun construction of its second automobile plant. We note that HEMRAJ’s and AMATA’s 9M13 earnings already account for 83% and 85% of our full-year forecast respectively.

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19 November 2013

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HEMRAJ is the market leader for industrial land sales. HEMRAJ reported

industrial land sales of 1978 rai for 9M13, at 94% of its 2,100-rai full-year target. Hence, its 2013 land sales are likely to come in rather close to the 2,317 rai sold last year. Early this year, the company set a very conservative land sales target of 1,600 rai, before increasing it to 1,800 rai in 2Q13 and 2,100 rai in 3Q13. AMATA, on the other hand, booked poor YTD land sales of 669 rai, which accounted for a mere 22% of its full-year target of 3,000 rai. We expected AMATA to sell 2,200 rai (-15% y-o-y) of land this year. Meanwhile, ROJNA has not clearly disclosed its actual land sales figures since early this year - its management simply told investors that its new 4,000-rai industrial estate in Prachinburi was 80% sold (Honda: 1600 rai, TICON: 400 rai and other auto suppliers: 1000 rai).

Applications for BOI privileges in 10M13 dipped 3.6% y-o-y. The investments that

applied for Board of Investment (BOI) privileges in 10M13 were valued at THB757bn (-3.6% y-o-y). Sectors which saw a decline in applications included minerals & ceramics (-30% y-o-y), light industry (-24% y-o-y), electronics & electrical (-56% y-o-y) as well as chemical, plastics and paper (-72% y-o-y). However, applications from service & infrastructure (including automotive) and agricultural products surged by 39% and 55% y-o-y respectively. The BOI targets investment applications for 2013 at THB1tr, down from THB1.47tr in 2012.

9M13 profit as a percentage of our full-year forecast. As AMATA’s and

HEMRAJ’s 9M13 profit accounted for 83% and 85% of our full-year forecasts, our sector estimate will likely be met. Whether ROJNA is able to turn a profit will depend on its ability to realise revenue from land sales in its Prachinburi estate. TICON, on the other hand, is waiting to book THB6.5bn from an asset divestment to a newly set-up property fund.

Figure 1: 9M13 net profit as a percentage of 2013F numbers

THBm 9M13 2013F

9M13 (% of

2013F) Remark

AMATA 1,440 1,725 83%

HEMRAJ 2,086 2,462 85%

ROJNA (41) 277 n.a.

Will turn a profit if it is able to realise revenue from land sales in Prachinburi estate

TICON 507 1,598 32% Waiting for THB6.5bn asset divestment into a newly set-up property fund

Total 3,992 6,062 66%

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Risks heighten. The macro outlook in terms of global financial status, domestic

economy and political stability turned unfavorable from 3Q13 onwards. We also saw flooding in new areas, ie Chachoengsao, Prachinburi and Chonburi, located in the eastern seaboard. AMATA’s industrial estates in Nakorn Phases 7-9 was inundated with water at end-3Q13, while ROJNA’s new estate in Prachinburi was also in the flooding zone. The seriousness of these problems this year was far less than it was in 2011, and no damage to major factories was reported. However, such negative factors do pressure investors’ confidence – and will continue to impact the pace of sales for major industrial estate developers in the short to medium term.

Recurring income is crucial to smoothen earnings growth. To ease the problem

of volatile annual land sales, listed industrial estate developers over the past 5-7 years have been growing their recurring income from power plants, water businesses, service and rental businesses. Among the four industrial estate developers, HEMRAJ has the highest portion of recurring income, while AMATA has the least.

It has been two years since ROJNA was severely hit by 2011 floods but the company has yet to fully recover. Although we noticed recent signs of improvement, these were still insufficient to return the company to the black. With better utilisation of its power plant and income recognition from the Prachinburi estate, ROJNA should be able to turn a profit soon. TICON, on the other hand, has seen a gradual recovery in its occupancy although the majority of its income will come from its asset monetisation.

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Platform 1

Sector Update, 18 November 2013

Retail – Non-cyclical Underweight

Growth Momentum Slows

Macro

1

Risks

1

Growth

1

Value

1

Sector topline

THBm Sales % chg Sales % chg

3Q13 y-o-y q-o-q 9M13 y-o-y

BIGC 28,905 6% -4% 87,326 7%

CPALL 86,156 69% 61% 140,182 35%

CPN 4,437 13% 0% 11,284 18%

GLOBAL 3,549 30% -3% 10,809 38%

HMPRO 10,174 18% 2% 29,830 17%

MAKRO 30,423 12% -1% 92,011 13%

ROBINS 5,869 13% 6% 17,733 16%

Total 139,090 10% 1% 408,693 12% Source: RHB Research

Sector net profit

THBm 3Q13 % chg 9M13 % chg

Net profit y-o-y q-o-q Net profit y-o-y

BIGC 1,374 33% -12% 4,340 3%

CPALL 2,660 -8% 0% 8,495 3%

CPN 1,456 17% 2% 4,643 31%

GLOBAL 197 26% -14% 720 59%

HMPRO 720 16% -1% 2,141 18%

MAKRO 1,027 35% 7% 2,993 27%

ROBINS 425 12% -5% 1,424 1%

Total 6,832 4% -2% 21,658 10%

Total - ex.CPALL 5,199 24% -3% 16,261 18% Source: RHB Research

SSSG performance and store expansion

THBm SSSG new store Remark

3Q13 9M13 YTD

BIGC 0.0% n.a. n.a. n.a.

CPALL 4.6% 7.8% 497 +>53 in 4Q13

CPN 6.2% 6.5% 1 +2 in 4Q13

GLOBAL -1.3% 4.3% 6 +3 in 4Q13

HMPRO 5.7% 4.1% 8 +3 in 4Q13

MAKRO 7.7% n.a. 3 +3 in 4Q13

ROBINS 3.5% 4.0% 3 + 2 ihn 4Q13 Source: RHB Research

Chalie Kueyen 66 2862 9745

License No.4975 [email protected]

Continued slowdown in domestic consumption pressured SSSG to

drop further in 3Q13, except MAKRO and CPN, as retailers increased

SG&A expenses to boost sales, leading to margin squeeze. ROBINS

and GLOBAL risk earnings downgrade as they were hit the most. Going

forward, we see no significant SSSG rebound and softer 4Q13 earnings

as the Consumer Confident Index declined in October. Given the rich

valuations, we remain bearish on the sector outlook.

Weaker earnings growth momentum. Key developments in Thailand’s

retail sector in 3Q13 were: i) slower same-store sales growth (SSSG),

which resulted in softer topline and net profit growth, particularly those of

GLOBAL, BIGC, ROBINS, and HMPRO, ii) margins (EBIT margins and

NPMs) had been on a downtrend for three consecutive quarters due to

higher SG&A expenses to boost sales and higher personnel expense.

MAKRO & CPN strengthen; ROBINS & GLOBAL weaken. Among

retailers, MAKRO performed the best with improved SSSG and margins,

followed by CPN. MAKRO posted 3Q13 SSSG of 8% y-o-y with NPM

rising 60bps to 3.4%, while CPN’s SSSG grew 6.2% with NPM rising

80bps to 30%. ROBINS performed the weakest as the expansion of its

three malls boosted sales (+16% in 9M13), but not profit (+1%).

Meanwhile, BIGC’s q-o-q earnings slump reflected its inconsistent

operation, while GLOBAL was effected by unusual heavy rainfall in north

and northeast Thailand. Likewise, exceptional expenses (financial

advisor fee & interest expense) related to M&As with MAKRO hurt

CPALL’s bottomline.

Store expansion continues. Most retailers maintained their expansion

pace despite a slowdown in consumption. Of these, only HMPRO

benefitted from the expansion with stable SSSG and margins. ROBINS

was hit by the most since its expansion eroded cash on hand with its

9M13 earnings growing by only 1%. Most retailers plan to ramp up

expansion in 4Q13, with CPN aiming to open two big malls, GLOBAL to

add three malls, HMPRO – three malls, and MAKRO & ROBINS – two

malls each. The expansion should pressure the firms’ bottomline as

marginal promotional expenses will outweigh marginal revenue.

Earnings cut for ROBINS and GLOBAL. Since ROBINS and GLOBAL’

9M13 earnings accounted for 68%/65% of our/consensus full-year

forecasts and we see no significant rebound in 4Q13, we cut our

earnings forecasts for both companies by around 10-12%. We trim

CPN’s FY13F earnings and target price by 4% each on higher SG&A

expenses from the company’s planned expansion in 4Q13.

Sector trading at demanding valuation. Our stock selection is based

on the view that high valuation multiples should be justified with growth.

With a PEG of 1.8x and EV/EBITDA-to-growth of 1.5x, we are bearish on

ROBINS and GLOBAL, fair on HMPRO, but bullish on CPN (which has

PEG of 1x, EV/EBITDA-to-growth of 0.8x).

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Retail - NonCyclical 18 November 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Higher SG&A expenses to boost sales. The domestic consumption slowdown and

the implementation of minimum wage nationwide have been the key challenges

facing the retail sector. Domestic consumption has slowed amid rising household

debt in the mid- to low-income segment following the government’s first car-buying

scheme, while farm income has remained stagnant. This prompted retailers to raise

SG&A expenses to boost sales, which resulted in operating expenses growing at a

faster pace than that of revenue in both 3Q13 and 9M13. Discretionary items seemed

to be affected the most, which had a negative impact on retailers like ROBINS.

Figure 1: Growth in revenue and net profit

3Q13 y-o-y 9M13

Rev SG&A NP Rev SG&A NP

BIGC 6% 12% 33% 6.8% 13.3% 3.4%

CPALL* 8.1% 27.1% -33% n.a. n,a, n.a.

CPN 13% 25% 17% 18% 26% 31%

GLOBAL 30% 55% 26% 37.9% 50.4% 64.4%

HMPRO 17.7% 16.9% 16.1% 17.3% 18.5% 17.5%

MAKRO 12% 11% 35% 12.7% 16.9% 25.1%

ROBINS 5.6% 6.1% -5.0% 16.1% 22.2% 0.9%

Source: RHB estimates

* CPALL fully consolidated MAKRO in 3Q13, growth at CPALL is based on company only statement*

Falling margin trend. Retailers’ margins (EBIT margins and NPMs) had been on a

downtrend for three consecutive quarters, with the exception of MAKRO, which

posted better margin in 3Q13. Only gross margins had been maintained due to

retailers’ bargaining power over producers. Rising SG&A expenses hurt EBIT

margins and NPMs for BIGC, GLOBAL, and ROBINS. For 3Q13, only MAKRO’s

margin improved while HMPRO posted stable margin.

Figure 2: EBIT and NPM margin trend

BIGC – falling margins CPALL – falling margins GLOBAL – falling margins

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

-       EBIT margin

-        NPM

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

-       EBIT margin

-        NPM

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

-       EBIT margin

-        NPM

HMPRO – stable margins MAKRO – better margins ROBINS – falling margins

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

-       EBIT margin

-        NPM

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

-       EBIT margin

-        NPM

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

-       EBIT margin

-        NPM

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

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Retail - NonCyclical 18 November 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

Outlook – No sign of turnaround

CCI decline to pressure 4Q13’s SSSG, margins. The Consumer Confidence Index

(CCI) is a leading indicator for SSSG in the retail and quick service restaurant (QSR)

sectors. We take SSSG of ROBINS, which is highly-sensitive to changes in the CCI,

as the main indicator for comparison. In addition, we takes SSSG of MINT and

CENTEL, which together manage more than 20 brands in Thailand under the QSR

segment and cover more that 50% of Thailand’s food industry. Based on Figure 3, a

higher CCI level indicates a pickup in consumer spending, which in turn drives SSSG

up. Since 1Q13, CCI has been on a downtrend, which mirrors the same trend for

SSSG and margins for most retailers.

Lower SSSG expected for 4Q13F. The CCI level is likely to drop even lower in

November from October given the country’s current political unrest. Thus, we believe

retailers’ SSSG will continue to come under pressure in 4Q13, with little chance of a

turnaround. As a result, the operating environment will be even tougher. Furthermore,

most retailers plan to ramp up new store opening in 4Q13. This will put more

pressure on earnings due to rising pre-marketing and promotion expenses from store

expansion.

Figure 3: CCI vs SSSG (when CCI falls, SSSG falls faster)

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

Dec-1

1

Feb-1

2

Apr-

12

Jun-1

2

Aug-1

2

Oct-

12

Dec-1

2

Feb-1

3

Apr-

13

Jun-1

3

Aug-1

3

Oct-

13

Consu

mer

Confident

Index (

CCI)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

SSSG

(y-o

-y)

CCI

SSSG - ROBINS

SSSG - QSR

Source: Bank of Thailand, Company data, RHB estimates

4Q13 CCI to further weaken. The CCI in October 2013 was 76.6, down by around

1.2 points y-o-y. Political unrest in Thailand is expected to further weigh on the CCI in

November. We expect 4Q13 CCI to weaken to the range of 76-77 (vs 79.3 in 4Q12),

which should push retailers’ SSSG down.

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Retail - NonCyclical 18 November 2013

See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

Sector trading at demanding valuation. Most retailers are trading at very high

multiples, seemingly unjustified by their growth prospects in the near to medium term.

Give that FY13/14 P/Es of 33x/26x and EV/EBITDA of 25x/23x imply a PEG of 1.8x

and EV/EBITDA-to-growth at 1.5x, with the slowdown in domestic consumption

expected to persist over the next three months, we expect growth prospects to

remain weak, along with our bearish view on the sector.

Maintain BUY on CPN. As CPN’s earnings and EBITDA growth implies 1.0x PEG

and EV/EBITDA-to-growth of 0.8x, we think the stock deserves to trade at high

valuation. In addition, despite a consumption slowdown, spending in the high-end

segment is more resilient than the mid-low segment. Hence, we expect CPN to

maintain rental rate SSSG of above 6% (2x GDP growth). We deem CPN a high-

growth company with consistent operations, backed by a highly-efficient product mix,

good store layout and strong bargaining power over producers. Finally, we gather

that CPN has grown in tandem with the rising number of local and international

tourists, since around 60% of its malls are located in top tourist destinations.

Figure 4: CPN’s margins Figure 5: CPN’s rental SSSG outpaces those of retailers and QSR

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

-       EBIT margin

-        NPM

low er margin pre-

mkting exp

related tw o new

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18D

ec-1

1

Feb-1

2

Apr-

12

Jun-1

2

Aug-1

2

Oct-

12

Dec-1

2

Feb-1

3

Apr-

13

Jun-1

3

Aug-1

3

CPN

QSR

ROBINS

Source: RHB estimates Source: RHB estimates

HMPRO to outperform GLOBAL. Despite bearish prospects for the home

improvement segment, we expect HMPRO to outperform GLOBAL in 4Q13 given

the former’s cheaper valuation multiple, lower earnings risk, and operating

consistency. ROBINS is projected to remain weak in 4Q13 as rising expenses from

its mall expansion (addition of two malls in 4Q13) will hurt margins. Similarly, CPN

will open two large regional malls measuring 60,000 sq m each in Chiang Mai and

Hat Yai.

Figure 6: Sector valuation

Mkt cap Mkt P FV BV ROE EV/EBITDA(X) Rec.

USD m 15- N ov- 13 (THB) '13F '14F '13F '14F '13F '13F '13F '14F '13F '14F '13F '14F 1M 3M 1Y YTD

BIGC 5,030 192.5 182.0 7.2 8.2 3.2- 13.9 43.6 18.3 26.7 23.5 15.3 13.7 4.4 4.0 -8 -4 6 -6 Neutral

CPALL 11,738 41.3 48.0 1.3 1.8 5.7 38.0 3.5 46.4 31.7 23.0 32.2 25.7 11.8 9.0 5 6 25 -8 Buy

CPN 6,575 46.3 66.0 1.4 1.6 34.6 14.3 19.9 18.4 33.0 28.9 22.6 19.1 2.3 2.2 -4 1 80 14 Buy

GLOBAL 1,540 18.6 n.a. 0.5 0.7 32.4 44.4 3.9 17.5 41.3 28.6 36.4 28.0 4.8 4.3 -7 -11 50 22 NR

HMPRO 3,372 11.1 n.a. 0.34 0.4 10.5- 17.6 2.1 30.2 32.6 27.8 21.5 18.5 5.3 4.7 -5 -5 47 20 NR

MAKRO 5,131 33.3 n.a. 16.8 18.5 13.5 10.1 52.6 38.8 2.0 1.8 25.5 23.2 0.6 0.5 0 -5 84 51 NR

ROBINS 1,988 56.5 56.5 1.75 2 5.9- 14.3 10.0 23.8 32.3 28.3 16.4 14.5 5.7 5.1 2 9 -7 -14 Neutral

Price change (%) EPS EPS GWT PE(X) PBV(X)

Source: RHB estimates

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5

RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation to the clients of RHB and its related companies. Any recommendation contained in this report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This report is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice to independently evaluate the particular investments and strategies. RHB, its affiliates and related companies, their respective directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this research report or any securities related thereto, and may from time to time add to, or dispose off, or may be materially interested in any such securities. 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Risk Disclosure Statements The prices of securities fluctuate, sometimes dramatically. The price of a security may move up or down, and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. RHBSHK does not maintain a predetermined schedule for publication of research and will not necessarily update this report Indonesia This report is published and distributed in Indonesia by PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia (formerly known as PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Thailand This report is published and distributed in Thailand by RHB OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL (formerly known as OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Other Jurisdictions In any other jurisdictions, this report is intended to be distributed to qualified, accredited and professional investors, in compliance with the law and regulations of the jurisdictions. DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage DISCLAIMERS This research is issued by DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd and it is for general distribution only. It does not have any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific recipient of this research report. You should independently evaluate particular investments and consult an independent financial adviser before making any investments or entering into any transaction in relation to any securities or investment instruments mentioned in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources we believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and views expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd, a joint venture between OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged entity is referred to as “RHBIB” which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad) and Deutsche Asia Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd (a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank Group). DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd is a Member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited. DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and their associates, directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities covered in the report, and may also perform or seek to perform broking and other corporate finance related services for the corporations whose securities are covered in the report. This report is therefore classified as a non-independent report. As of 14 November 2013, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd, do not have proprietary positions in the subject companies, except for: a) - As of 14 November 2013, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, except for: a) - DMG & Partners Research Pte. Ltd. (Reg. No. 200808705N)

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Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2013

ADVANC BCP CPF ERW IVL NKI PS ROBINS SCB SNC TCAP TMB UV AOT BECL CPN GRAMMY KBANK NOBLE PSL RS SCC SPALI THAI TNITY VGI ASIMAR BKI CSL HANA KKP PAP PTT S&J SCSMG SPI THCOM TOP WACOAL BAFS BROOK DRT HEMRAJ KTB PG PTTEP SAMART SE-ED SSI THRE TRC BANPU BTS DTAC ICC LPN PHOL PTTGC SAMTEL SIM SSSC TIP TRUE BAY CIMB EASTW INTUCH MCOT PR QH SAT SIS SVI TASCO TTW BBL CK EGCO IRPC MINT PRANDA RATCH SC SITHAI SYMC TKT TVO

2S AYUD CNT GL KKC MBK OISHI SABINA STANLY TK TTCL zZMICO ACAP BEC CPALL GLOW KSL MBKET PB SAMCO STEC TLUXE TUF AF BFIT CSC GOLD KWC MFC PDI SCCC SUC TMILL TWFP AHC BH DCC GSTEL L&E MFEC PE SCG SUSCO TMT TYM AIT BIGC DELTA GUNKUL LANNA MODERN PF SEAFCO SYNTEC TNL UAC AKP BJC DTC HMPRO LH MTI PJW SFP TASCO TOG UMI AMANAH BLA ECL HTC LHBANK NBC PM SIAM TCP TPC UMS AMARIN BMCL EE IFEC LHK NCH PPM SINGER TF TPCORP UP AMATA BWG EIC INET LIVE NINE PPP SIRI TFD TPIPL UPOIC AP CCET ESSO ITD LOXLEY NMG PREB SKR TFI TRT UT APCO CENTEL FE JAS LRH NSI PRG SMT THANA TRU VIBHA APCS CFRESH FORTH JUBILE LST NWR PT SNP THANI TSC VIH ASIA CGS GBX KBS MACO OCC PYLON SPCG THIP TSTE VNG ASK CHOW GC KCE MAJOR OFM QTC SPPT TICON TSTH VNT ASP CM GFPT KGI MAKRO OGC RASA SSF TIPCO TTA YUASA *** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25,2012

A BCH CRANE FPI IT MBAX PICO SGP TBSP TPP WIN AAV BEAUTY CSP FSS JMART MDX PL SIMAT TCCC TR WORK AEC BGI CSR GENCO JMT PRINC POST SLC TEAM TTI AEONTS BLAND CTW GFM JTS MJD PRECHA SMIT TGCI TVD AFC BOL DEMCO GJS JUTHA MK PRIN SMK TIC TVI AGE BROCK DNA GLOBAL KASET MOONG Q-CON SOLAR TIES TWZ AH BSBM DRACO HFT KC MPIC QLT SPC TIW UBIS AI CHARAN EA HTECH KCAR MSC RCI SPG TKS UEC AJ CHUO EARTH HYDRO KDH NC RCL SRICHA TMC UOBKH AKR CI EASON IFS KTC NIPPON ROJNA SSC TMD UPF ALUCON CIG EMC IHL KWH NNCL RPC STA TMI UWC ANAN CITY EPCO ILINK LALIN NTV SCBLIF SUPER TNDT VARO ARIP CMR F&D INOX LEE OSK SCP SVOA TNPC VTE AS CNS FNS IRC MATCH PAE SENA SWC TOPP WAVE BAT-3K CPL FOCUS IRPC MATI PATO SF SYNEX TPA WG *** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.

IOD (IOD Disclaimer)

การเปิดเผลผลการส ารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบรษิัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการก ากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี้เป็นการด าเนินการตามนโยบายของส านักงานคณะกรรมการก ากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการส ารวจของ IOD เป็นการส ารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจดทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลกัทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผูล้งทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถงึได้ ดังนั้นผลส ารวจดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการน าเสนอในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน

อนึ่ง ผลการส ารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการส ารวจ ณ วนัที่ปรากฎในรายงานการก ากับดแูละกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการส ารวจจึงอาจเปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทัง้นี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จ ากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการส ารวจดงักล่าวแต่อย่างใด