ISFHAN

Equity Research | Indonesia

13 August 2019

Morning Call

Market PULSE Research Team

(+62 21) 2970 9430

Key Indonesia Indices

Close Chg % Chg

JCI 6,251 -24.1 -0.4

Agricultural 1,374 22.6 1.7

Mining 1,628 21.9 1.4

Basic Industry 834 4.9 0.6

Misc Industry 1,210 -17.7 -1.4

Consumer 2,358 -0.3 0.0

Property 483 -0.4 -0.1

Infrastructure 1,197 -1.8 -0.2

Finance 1,283 3.1 0.2

Trade & Svc 801 -0.6 -0.1

Manufacturing 1,496 -1.0 -0.1

Latest Previous Vol (b) 9.8 10.5

Value (IDR t) 5.1 0.2

Top % gainers Close % Chg

ERAA 2,080 8.6

JSMR 5,850 2.2

KLBF 1,465 1.7

Top % losers Close % Chg

UNTR 21,700 -6.4

WIKA 2,200 -4.8

BSDE 1,320 -3.6

Most active Close % Chg

BBCA 30,200 -0.4

UNTR 21,700 -6.4

BMRI 7,400 -0.7

Market Data Latest % Chg

IDR/USD 14,280 -0.2

Dow Jones Index 25,898 -1.5

S&P 500 2,883 -1.2

Oil Price (USD/bbl) 55 -0.2

Gold Price (USD/oz) 1,516 0.3

Coal Price (USD/mt) 67 -0.8 CPO Price(MYR/mt) 2,141 3.3

Economic Statistics Latest *Previous

GDP growth YoY (%) 5.05 5.07

CPI inflation (%) 3.32 3.28

7-day Reverse Repo rate (%) 5.75 6.00

*Previous month for CPI & 7-day Reverse Repo rate, quarter for GDP

OCBC Sekuritas

Key Ideas

Economy: Bank Indonesia Says Ready to Intervene in Currency, Bond Markets

Agri: Indonesia Sees 4.63M Tons of Rice Surplus in Jan.-Sept

Stocks to Watch

GMFI IJ: Co implements strategies to improve cash flow

DAYA IJ: Co revenue hikes 84% di 1H19

HERO IJ: Co allocates Rp 500 billion for store revitalization

TOBA IJ: Co recorded US$ 230.7 million of sales in 1H 2019

Daily Chart Views

JCI Index – Slightly rise: Potential technical rebound though

forming of Black candle but decrease in volume (R: 6,280 | S: 6,210)

WSBP – Spec buy: Potential technical rebound supported by

the forming of Bullish Gravestone Doji pattern and increase

in volume ( R:360 | S:332 – Entry:338-344)

SCMA – Spec buy: Potential technical rebound as last closing

price still above near term support ( R:1,305 | S:1,200 – Entry:1,210-1,230)

UNTR – Buy on Weakness: Continue to fall supported by the

forming of Black Marabozu pattern and increase in volume ( R:22,200 | S:21,250 – Entry:21,400-21,525)

CTRA – Buy on Weakness: Continue to fall supported by the

forming of Bearish Belt Hold pattern and increase in volume ( R:1,245| S:1,110 – Entry:1,135-1,150)

JSMR – Trading buy: Continue to rise supported by the

forming of Bullish Belt Hold pattern and increase in volume ( R:6,000 | S:5,600 – Entry:5,725-5,800)

Sources: PTOS,IDNfinancials, Bloomberg and other sources

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Market Snapshot

Global Market: Asian shares fell on Tuesday as fears about a drawn-out Sino-US trade war, protests in Hong Kong and a crash in Argentina’s peso currency drove investors to safe harbors like bonds, gold, and the yen. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.26 percent while Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 1.28 percent. The selling in regional markets came as Wall Street stocks took a beating on Monday, with the S&P 500 losing 1.23 percentSentiment was already weak due to increasing signs that the United States and China will not quickly resolve their year-long trade war. Markets were hit with further turbulence after protesters managed to close down Hong Kong’s airport on Monday. Traders were also on edge after market-friendly Argentine President Mauricio Macri suffered a mauling in presidential primaries, increasing the risk of a return to interventionist economic policies. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were near the lowest in almost three years, gold was pinned close to six-year highs, and the yen was within a whisker of a seven-month peak versus the dollar in a sign of the heightened anxiety in financial markets already battered by global growth woes. US stock futures were 0.19 percent higher early in Asia, which may provide some respite to anxious markets. The Argentine peso collapsed overnight, falling to 55.85 to the dollar, after voters snubbed Macri by giving the opposition a surprisingly bigger-than-expected victory in Sunday’s primary election. The Merval stock index crashed 30 percent and declines of between 18-20 cents in Argentina’s benchmark 10-year bonds left them trading at around 60 cents on the dollar or even lower. Refinitiv data showed Argentine stocks, bonds and the peso had not recorded this kind of simultaneous fall since the South American country’s 2001 economic crisis and debt default. The grim backdrop was enough to push investors into safe-havens, and US Treasury yields dropped across the board on Monday as trade worries and political tensions supported safe-haven assets. Hong Kong’s airport, the world’s busiest cargo airport, reopened on Tuesday, which could ease some concern about the immediate economic impact of protests over the past two months.

Source: CNBC

News Headlines

Bank Indonesia Says Ready to Intervene in Currency, Bond Markets

Central bank stands ready to intervene in bond, forex and domestic non-deliverable forwards markets to stem risk off triggered by fears of financial crisis in Argentina and political risk in Hong Kong. Bank Indonesia committed to be in the markets to maintain rupiah stability, the bank will ensure sufficient liquidity in the markets. Bank Indonesia will intervene in bond market if needed. Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia Sees 4.63M Tons of Rice Surplus in Jan.-Sept

Rice output expected to come from 8.99m hectares of paddy fields in Jan.-Sept. period, Investor Daily Indonesia newspaper reports, citing an official. Total Jan.-Sept. domestic production est. at 26.91m tons, while consumption est. at 22.28m tons, says Suwandi, director general of food crops at Agriculture Ministry, as cited in report Govt optimistic that food production through end of year, especially. rice, will not be hampered despite dry season that may last longer than expected. Source:Bloomberg

GMF implements strategies to improve cash flow

PT Garuda Maintenance Facility AeroAsia Tbk (GMFI) or GMF will implement a number of strategies to improve the company's currently negative cash flow. Among others, the company will press costs, partner other MRO (maintenance, repair, overhaul) providers, choose consumers selectively, and improve receievable collectivity.Based on the company's financial statements as of June 30, 2019, GMF's net cash was recorded at US$ 14.05 million in the first semester of 2019 and US$ 43.63 million in 1H-2018.According to Mr Andika, the aviation industry currently still faces challenges that result in higher costs. Eventually, such costs are charged to customers and thus the company must choose customers selectively. In addition, GMF has also diversified its business by establishing subsidiaries. Currently, the company's subsidiaries which have contributed to its 1H performance are Garuda Energi Logistik dan Komersial and Garuda Daya Pratama Sejahtera. Source:IDNfinancial&Bisnis

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Duta Intidaya revenue hikes 84% di 1H19

PT Duta Intidaya Tbk (DAYA) recorded a revenue increase of 84% year on year (yoy) to Rp 485.34 billion in the first semester of 2019. The company attributes its positive performance to offline and online outlet expansion throughout the period.DAYA Director Sukarnen Suwanto explained that as of 1H the company operates 120 Watsons outlets, and the number is expected to rise throughout the year.In addition, DAYA is also strengthening online sales through its official website watsons.co.id and the Watsons app, as well as partnerships with various online marketplaces. Source:IDNfinancial&Kontan

HERO allocates Rp 500 billion for store revitalization

PT Hero Supermarket Tbk (HERO), has allocated a Rp 500 billion budget to revitalize its stores this year. By creating a new atmosphere in its stores, the company expects to obtain more revenue. Based on the disclosure of company information, HERO's management aims to create a new atmosphere and improve its service standards for customers.The company focuses on a multi-year transformation program and believes the program will lead to long-term sustainable growth. HERO is the operator of Hero Supermarket and Giant Hypermarket, a retail stores chain. The company also operates Guardian and IKEA stores. Source:IDNfinancial

Toba Bara recorded US$ 230.7 million of sales in 1H 2019

PT Toba Bara Sejahtera Tbk (TOBA), a coal mining company, recorded US$ 230.7 million of sales in 1H 2019, 23.2% higher than its record in 1H 2018. This was due to the large recognized revenue from Sulbagut-1 and North Sulawesi-3 power plant project (US$ 62.6 million).As quoted from the disclosure of company information, the company's cost of goods sold rose by 47.3% YoY, due to the large amount of coal purchased and construction expenses for the Sulbagut-1 and North Sulawesi-3 power plant project. In addition, the company generated US$ 23.2 million in profit in 1H 2019, 25.6% lower than the record in the same period of last year. Source:IDNfinancial

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Technical Analysis | Indonesia

Daily Chart Views Liga Maradona ● (62) 21-2970 9431 ● liga.maradona@ocbcsekuritas.com

Tuesday

13 August 2019

Summary for today:

JCI Slightly

rise Potential technical rebound though forming of Black candle but decrease in volume

WSBP Spec

buy Potential technical rebound supported by the forming of Bullish Gravestone Doji pattern and increase in volume

SCMA Spec

buy Potential technical rebound as last closing price still above near term support

UNTR BOW Continue to fall supported by the forming of Black Marabozu pattern and increase in volume

CTRA BOW Continue to fall supported by the forming of Bearish Belt Hold pattern and increase in volume

JSMR Trading

buy Continue to rise supported by the forming of Bullish Belt Hold pattern and increase in volume

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) Gc = Golden-cross Pos = Positive Dc = Dead-cross Neg = Negative Up = Up Ob = Overbought

Dn = Down Os = Oversold Nt = Neutral

Source: Bloomberg

Recomendation Slightly rise

Resistance 6,280

Support 6,210

Close 6,250

Indicator MACD Dn

W%R Nt

Histogram Neg

Mov Avg Nt

OCBC Sekuritas

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Waskita Beton Precast (WSBP)

Gc = Golden-cross Pos = Positive Dc = Dead-cross Neg = Negative

Up = Up Ob = Overbought Dn = Down Os = Oversold

Nt = Neutral

Source: Bloomberg

Surya Citra Media (SCMA)

Gc = Golden-cross Pos = Positive Dc = Dead-cross Neg = Negative

Up = Up Ob = Overbought Dn = Down Os = Oversold

Nt = Neutral

Source: Bloomberg

Recommendation Spec buy

Resistance 360

Support 332

Entry 338-344

Indicator MACD Dn

W%R Os

Histogram Neg

Mov Avg Nt

Recommendation Spec buy

Resistance 1,305

Support 1,200

Entry 1,210-1,230

Indicator MACD Dn

W%R Os

Histogram Neg

Mov Avg Dn

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United Tractors (UNTR)

Source: Bloomberg

Ciputra Development (CTRA)

Source: Bloomberg

Recommendation BOW

Resistance 22,200

Support1 21,250

Entry 21,400-21,525

Indicator MACD Dn

W%R Os

Histogram Neg

Mov Avg Nt

Recommendation BOW

Resistance 1,245

Support 1,110

Entry 1,135-1,150

Indicator MACD Up

W%R Nt

Histogram Neg

Mov Avg Up

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Jasa Marga Persero (JSMR)

ws Dc = Dead-cross Neg = Negative

Up = Up Ob = Overbought Dn = Down Os = Oversold Nt = Neutral

Source: Bloomberg

Recomendation Trading buy

Resistance 6,000

Support 5,600

Entry 5,725-5,800

Indicator MACD Dn

W%R Nt

Histogram Neg

Mov Avg Up

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S 2 S 1 R 1 R 2

Sho rt-

T erm

M id-

T erm

Lo ng-

T erm

JCI 5,642 7,228 6,251 6,193 6,244 6,308 6,360 Bearish Bearish Bullish

H o ldings

INDF 100 66 7,525 7,300 7,475 7,550 7,700 Bullish Bullish Bearish

ASII 255 273 6,750 6,544 6,738 6,863 7,044 Bearish Bearish Bearish

B anks

BBCA 565 745 30,200 29,713 30,075 30,475 30,763 Bearish Bullish Bullish

BBNI 223 148 7,925 7,594 7,838 8,038 8,244 Bearish Bearish Bullish

BBRI 609 530 4,300 4,198 4,295 4,385 4,478 Bearish Bullish Bullish

BBTN 38 24 2,300 2,208 2,285 2,345 2,428 Bearish Bullish Bearish

BDM N 28 49 5,000 4,756 4,948 5,053 5,216 Bullish Bearish Bearish

BJBR 15 15 1,520 1,468 1,510 1,540 1,588 Bearish Bearish Bearish

BM RI 381 345 7,400 7,163 7,375 7,525 7,713 Bearish Bullish Bullish

C o nstruct io ns

ADHI 10 5 1,385 1,328 1,375 1,420 1,478 Bearish Bearish Bullish

PTPP 50 11 1,835 1,773 1,835 1,900 1,963 Bearish Bearish Bullish

WIKA 52 20 2,200 2,103 2,195 2,325 2,423 Bearish Bullish Bullish

WSKT 71 24 1,775 1,706 1,758 1,798 1,846 Bearish Bullish Bullish

C o al M ining

ADRO 61 34 1,070 1,005 1,060 1,110 1,165 Bearish Bearish Bearish

INDY 8 7 1,365 1,284 1,358 1,408 1,484 Bearish Bearish Bearish

ITM G 21 17 14,650 14,181 14,638 15,313 15,781 Bearish Bearish Bearish

PTBA 53 29 2,480 2,360 2,460 2,570 2,680 Bearish Bearish Bearish

C o nsumers

GGRM 100 140 72,600 71,150 72,300 74,175 75,150 Bearish Bearish Bearish

HM SP 147 338 2,910 2,705 2,870 2,940 3,095 Bearish Bearish Bearish

ICBP 84 131 11,275 10,975 11,200 11,425 11,675 Bullish Bullish Bullish

KLBF 46 69 1,465 1,390 1,440 1,475 1,520 Bullish Bearish Bearish

UNVR 107 343 44,975 44,119 44,688 45,288 45,569 Bullish Bearish Bullish

P lantat io ns

AALI 17 20 10,625 10,188 10,450 10,725 10,988 Bullish Bearish Bearish

LSIP 21 8 1,170 1,089 1,148 1,203 1,259 Bullish Bearish Bearish

P o ultry

CPIN 60 80 4,850 4,738 4,835 4,915 4,998 Bearish Bearish Bearish

JPFA 38 18 1,570 1,499 1,568 1,603 1,669 Bearish Bearish Bearish

Infrastructure

INTP 45 81 21,925 21,425 21,700 22,025 22,325 Bearish Bullish Bullish

SM GR 76 76 12,800 12,481 12,688 12,913 13,181 Bullish Bearish Bullish

UNTR 124 81 21,700 20,731 21,638 23,188 24,081 Bearish Bullish Bearish

AKRA 29 15 3,860 3,745 3,820 3,880 3,965 Bearish Bearish Bearish

JSM R 25 42 5,850 5,538 5,675 5,875 6,038 Bullish Bullish Bullish

M etal M ining

ANTM 261 25 1,035 984 1,028 1,078 1,124 Bullish Bearish Bullish

INCO 86 32 3,240 3,028 3,185 3,355 3,468 Bullish Bearish Bearish

TINS 29 7 975 930 970 1,010 1,050 Bearish Bearish Bullish

Oil and Gas

ELSA 6 2 342 326 335 347 360 Bearish Bearish Bullish

M EDC 10 14 790 756 788 813 846 Bearish Bearish Bearish

PGAS 61 48 1,980 1,933 1,975 2,000 2,043 Bearish Bearish Bearish

P ro perty

ASRI 3 6 314 304 311 317 326 Bearish Bullish Bullish

BKSL 25 8 136 129 136 139 145 Bearish Bullish Bullish

BSDE 17 25 1,320 1,256 1,318 1,383 1,446 Bearish Bullish Bullish

CTRA 41 22 1,185 1,126 1,178 1,233 1,276 Bearish Bullish Bullish

LPKR 35 19 262 250 259 269 280 Bearish Bullish Bullish

SM RA 29 18 1,235 1,164 1,218 1,278 1,324 Bearish Bullish Bullish

R etail

LPPF 27 9 3,250 3,095 3,250 3,310 3,465 Bearish Bearish Bearish

M API 9 16 990 933 975 1,015 1,053 Bullish Bearish Bullish

RALS 9 9 1,305 1,238 1,290 1,330 1,378 Bearish Bearish Bullish

T eleco mmunicat io n

EXCL 47 36 3,360 3,155 3,270 3,400 3,515 Bullish Bullish Bullish

TLKM 429 422 4,260 4,138 4,235 4,325 4,418 Bullish Bullish Bullish

Suppo rtLast

P rice

R esistance Indicato rsM arket

C ap

D aily

T urno ver

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SHAREHOLDING DECLARATION: The analyst/analysts who wrote this report holds/hold NIL shares in the above security. DISCLAIMER FOR RESEARCH REPORT This report is solely for information and general circulation only and may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without our written consent. This report should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the securities mentioned herein. Whilst we have taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this publication is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness, and you should not act on it without first independently verifying its contents. Any opinion or estimate contained in this report is subject to change without notice. We have not given any consideration to and we have not made any investigation of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the recipient or any class of persons, and accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of the recipient or any class of persons acting on such information or opinion or estimate. You may wish to seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the securities mentioned herein, taking into consideration your investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in the securities. PT OCBC Sekuritas and their respective connected and associated corporations together with their respective directors and officers may have or take positions in the securities mentioned in this report and may also perform or seek to perform broking and other investment or securities related services for the corporations whose securities are mentioned in this report as well as other parties generally. The information provided herein may contain projections or other forward looking statements regarding future events or future performance of countries, assets, markets or companies. Actual events or results may differ materially. Past performance figures are not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance. Privileged / confidential information may be contained in this document. If you are not the addressee indicated in this document (or responsible for delivery of this message to such person), you may not copy or deliver this message to anyone. Opinions, conclusions and other information in this document that do not relate to the official business of PT OCBC Sekuritas and their respective connected and associated corporations shall be understood as neither given nor endorsed. RATINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: - OCBC Sekuritas Research’s technical comments and recommendations are short-term and trading oriented. - OCBC Sekuritas Research’s fundamental views and ratings (Buy, Hold, Sell) are medium-term calls within a 12-month investment horizon. - As a guide, OCBC Sekuritas Research’s BUY rating indicates a total return in excess of 10% based on the current price; a HOLD rating indicates total returns within +10% and -5%; a SELL rating indicates total returns less than -5%.

Isfhan Helmy Head of Research

Published by PT OCBC Sekuritas Indonesia