MOOCs and

ubiquitous

computing

Summer 2013

1: ubiquitous computingMark Weiser, 1988ff Example: "The Computer

for the Twenty-First Century" (1991)

“The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave

themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it.”

“The mobile phone is the primary connection tool for most people in the world. In 2020, while "one laptop per child" and other initiatives to bring networked digital communications to everyone are successful on many levels, the mobile phone—now with significant computing power—is the primary Internet connection and the only one for a majority of the people across the world, providing information in a portable, well-connected form at a relatively low price.”

Beyond the PC

"When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks because that's what you needed on the farms." Cars became more popular as cities rose, and things like power steering and automatic transmission became popular…

"PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. "They are still going to be around." However, he said, only "one out of x people will need them."

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-20006526-56.html ; image via Wikipedia

Interface changes

Gartner: end of the mouse

Touch screen (iOS) Handhelds (Wii) Nothing (Kinect)

Searchthe

world

Multimedia lives here

Ecosystems

Ecosystems

Ecosystems and decisionsCombining devices,

format, services, and business model

Kindle: Amazon store iPad: iTunes book

section Android: Play

Big mobile changes Laminating

the world digitally

Media consumption

Interface transformation

Media capture

Social connection

Web 2.0, amped

All of Web 2.0, just more so

Microcontent increases Social participation increases

From consumer to user to prosumer

Accelerando!

2: Das MOOC

No, MOOCsNo good categorical name:

…which sometimes indicates the future

Delphi

Horizon Report 2013

Horizon trends, 2013

Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less Massively Open Online Courses

Tablet Computing

cMOOC

xMOOC

Two different Webs

Video vs social media

Container vs Weinberger

Automation vs humans

3: Grappling with the future

MOOCs don’t act alone Demographics Great

Recession Hollowing out

of middle class

Globalization Automation World going

online

Complexity of US higher education

Adjunctification

K-12 reform Serials +

monograph crises

MOOCs don’t act alone

Mobile apps Persistent DRM Social media’s triumph Interface transformations Global cyberwar and

surveillance

Possible paths ahead

I: MOOCs exacerbate problems

Star system intensifies Adjunctification increases

(rōnin model, King and Nanfito)

Sticker prices drop, leading to more cuts

F2f for elites

The bubble bursts

http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/files/TermEnrollmentReport-Spring2013.pdf

Phantom learning

Post-tsunami Schools are rare and distant

Information is plentiful and nearby

II: Open world Open content, open access, open source

• Very Web-centric

Good things Global conversations increase, filter bubble pops

More access, more information

Lots of creativity

Not so good things Industries collapse Authorship mysterious Some low quality tech (videoconf.)

Some higher costs More malware + less privacy

Good things on campus Information prices drop Faculty creativity, flexibility grow

IT “ “ “ Academic content unleashed on the world

How does this impact campuses?

Tech challenges Outsourcing and offshoring

PLE beats LMS Crowdsourcing faculty work

Information literacy central

III: MOOC bubble pops

http://www.flickr.com/photos/thales/2782129254/

(or my favorite metaphor)

How it happened

MOOC provider goes bust Media buzz reverses

Elsewhere

Economic growth returns to US (energy, medical, nanotech vs world)

17-22-year-old residential niche revitalized (K-12 failure)

Full-time faculty stabilize (AAUP-ALA strike)

Higher education landscape: Supplemental rather than

transformative tech Logistical instead of

pedagogical tech Academics include tech in

old structures (classes, publication

Bryan Alexanderhttp://bryanalexander.org

Bryan on Twitterhttp://twitter.com/BryanAlexander