monitoring intelligence: pv system health scan (karel de
TRANSCRIPT
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PV System Health Scan using Operation Data
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
[email protected] | www.3E.eu
1st European Performance Plus Workshop
Author: Karel De Brabandere
Date: November 18, 2014
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How to optimize O&M?
Early and accurate anomaly detection and alerting
Accurate model of expected system behaviour in the field
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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Pro-active maintenance
Optimized O&M
detection and alerting
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How to optimize O&M?
� How to assess the expected behavior of a well-funct ioning PV system?
Accurate model of expected system behaviour in the field
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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� Use datasheets / lab tests / bottom-up modelling ?
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PV System Performance Evaluation throughBottom -up Modelling (1)
� Many different losses affect the performance ratio (PR)
� Different losses are estimated
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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� Different losses are estimated beforehand
� Measuring different losses on a PV plant is extremely difficult
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PV System Performance Evaluation throughBottom -up Modelling (2)
� Production differs from system to system, both forecasted and real
� Not always good correlation
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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� Not always good correlation between forecasted and real production
� Root cause of deviation often not identified
� Theoretic performance ≠ Operational performance Source: Leloux et al., “Review of the performance of residential PV systems
in Belgium,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2012.
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How to optimize O&M?
� How to assess the expected behavior of a well-funct ioning PV system?
Accurate model of expected system behaviour in the field
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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� Use datasheets / lab tests / bottom-up modelling ?� OFTEN NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE FIELD REALITY
� Use on site tests ?� TOO COSTLY, CUMBERSOME, NOT EFFECTIVE
� Use operational data ?� OUR METHODOLOGY
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Automated PV System Health Characterisation from operational data
� Overall Objective� Development and implementation of methods to identify root cause of
sudden or gradual changes of PV system performance
� Approach� Accurate model of field behaviour of well-performing system
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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� Accurate model of field behaviour of well-performing systemo Model structure reflects known physical dependencieso ‘Fitting’ model parameters (electrical, optical, thermal)
� Continuously monitor the evolution of these parameters� Compare parameters with expected range� Relate parameter deviations with possible root causes
� Sneak preview of work in progress
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Use cases
� Understand difference with the forecasted PR:� Identify where the losses / gains come from
o PV modules? Inverters? String connections? Grid? …o Design? Dimensioning? O&M? …o Inter-array shading? Soiling? Sensor issues? ...
� In order to o Initiate pro-active maintenance actions
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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o Initiate pro-active maintenance actionso Learn and make better future design choiceso Identify components which systematically under- or over-perform
� Alternative for IV sweeping of PV arrays� No additional equipment, no interruption of production� Evolution over time, not just a one-off snapshot� Cost-effective� Fitting operation points that matter (MPP)
� Commissioning, due diligence� …
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PV System Health Scan Process
Configuration, Datasheet,
Laboratory Tests
Theoretic System
Parameters
Theoretic Performance
Irradiation
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Analyse
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Monitoring DataMeasured
Performance
Irradiation
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Analyse Performance ratio of many inverters on one site?
� Box plot chart: the principle
75th percentilePR
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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median
25th percentile
outliers
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Analyse Performance ratio of MANY Inverters on one Site?
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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Grass growth
Benefits
String issues
ONE chart to give a precise and accurate view about ALL the inverters Concerns specific time AND historical : all stakeholders have interest
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PV System Health Scan Process
Theoretic System
Parameters
Configuration, Datasheet,
Laboratory Tests
Theoretic Performance
Irradiation
Analyse
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Analyse
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Monitoring DataMeasured
Performance
Irradiation
Modelled System
Parameters
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Bottom -up versus Top -Down
� Bottom-up� Detailed ex-ante modelling of system components and its parameters
o Estimation of yield before production startso e.g. PVsyst
� Lots of ways to tune parameters
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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� Sometimes large deviations between model and reality
� Top-Down� Ex-post fitting of monitoring data to system equations in order to derive
system characteristics� Parameters are result from fitting, no tuning� Small deviations or ‘residuals’ between model and reality
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Fitting of System Parameters
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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MPP voltage fitting: fitted versus measuredE
stim
ated
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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Measured
Est
imat
ed
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Fitting of System Parameters
� Similar approach for other monitored data, e.g.:� MPP current and voltage� AC values� Irradiation sensors� Temperature sensors� …
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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� …
� Estimation of other system parameters, e.g.:� Offset and slope of sensors� Reflection� Shading� Equivalent thermal resistance� Time constants (thermal, MPP tracking)� Inverter derating limits� …
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Fitting of System ParametersMPP Current PV module temperature
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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� How visualize estimations for all these parameters and compare with expectations in a user-friendly way?
Parameters PV Temp Model-2.01
1.00
0.0388
0.12
8.4
RMSE [°C] 1.02
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Think of a blood analysis…
Expected range
Measured Value
Measured component
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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Fitted compared to expected parametersEstimated component
Expected range
EstimatedValue
Benefits
If one coefficient is out of range Plant issue is detected
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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If one coefficient is out of range Plant issue is detected
The coefficients are the “expression” of the field reality of the plant
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PV System Health Scan Process
Theoretic System
Parameters
Configuration, Datasheet,
Laboratory Tests
Theoretic Performance
Analyse
Irradiation
Analyse
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Analyse
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Monitoring DataMeasured
Performance
Modelled Performance
Irradiation
Modelled System
Parameters
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PV System Health Scan Process
Theoretic System
Parameters
Configuration, Datasheet,
Laboratory Tests
Theoretic Performance
Analyse
Irradiation
Analyse
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
Analyse
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Monitoring DataMeasured
Performance
Analyse
Modelled Performance
Irradiation
ModelledSystem
Parameters
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Analysis of residuals
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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You foresee these losses
These losses trigger further analysis
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Sankey diagram
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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Analysis of MPP operating range
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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Analysis of MPP operating range
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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partial shading
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Analysis of MPP operating range
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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Missing string in June
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Challenges
� Data quality / availability in commercial plants� Data gaps, sensor availability, communication issues� Sensor accuracy� Correctness of configuration data
� Parameter uncertainties (e.g. depending on data length, system configuration)
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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� Parameter uncertainties (e.g. depending on data length, system configuration)� Confidence margins of estimated parameters
� Build up a knowledge base of typical health scan results� Determination of typical distribution, expected range� Dependency on components, design choices, …� Link between parameter deviations and probable root causes
� Visualisation of results understandable to system owners, O&M� Health scan, Sankey diagram, Scatter plots, …
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Conclusions
� Pro-active maintenance requires accurate model of expected behaviour of well-performing PV plant for early and reliable detection of performance issues.
� Such an accurate MPP model is ideally created and updated using operational data.
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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operational data.
� The 3E Health Scan methodology for characterising the physical parameters of a PV array shows how it provides insight in root causes of performance losses
� We analyse field reality
� All the stakeholders gain benefits with this approach
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Thank you
� Brussels� Toulouse� London� Milano� Beijing� Istanbul
This work has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No 308991.
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� Istanbul� Cape Town
www.perfplus.eu
www.3E.eu