monitoring forecast trends using deltek cobra...2016/11/01 · performance factor = 1/cpi...

Monitoring Forecast

Trends Using Deltek

Cobra

Robb Webster, Principal Consultant, PrimePM

[email protected]

©2016 Deltek, Inc. All Rights Reserved 2

Overview

Cobra can be used to monitor how your EAC is fluctuating from month to month. While wInsight is the

more appropriate tool to perform this type of analysis, Cobra is able to provide detail in this arena.

Topics to discuss

Forecasting in Cobra: Statistical v Manual

Capturing Trends in Cobra

Forecast Trend Report Demo

Monitoring Forecast Trends Using Deltek Cobra

Statistical v Manual



Statistical v Manual

Manual forecasts provide a way for CAM’s to estimate remaining work.

Statistical forecasts provide a way to assess the validity of these estimates.

Seeing how any of these are trending are a great indicator of project health


Manual Forecast

Load using the Integration Wizard

Generally formulated by CAM


Statistical Forecast

Use the Calculate Forecast wizard to estimate the final cost of the project at any given time during

its course.

Cobra will calculate based on factors/indices/measurements at the time of calculation. It will always

overwrite the current forecast and can be done at any time during the month, so it can be updated

periodically throughout a status month.

Create a forecast class and indicate its method of calculation



Performance factor = 1 — Assumes that the project will perform all remaining work according to

budget.

Performance factor = 1/CPI cumulative to date (where CPI = Earned Value/Actual Costs) —

Assumes that all remaining work will be performed at the same rate of efficiency (cost performance

index or CPI) as has been achieved so far.

Performance factor = 1/CPI last status period — Assumes that all remaining work will be performed

at the same rate of efficiency as has been achieved in the current fiscal period.

Performance factor = 1/CPI last three status periods — Assumes that all remaining work will be

performed at the same rate of efficiency that has been achieved in the current period plus the two

previous periods.

Performance factor = 1/CPI last six status periods — Assumes that all remaining work will be

performed at the same rate of efficiency that has been achieved in the current fiscal period plus five

previous fiscal periods.

Performance factor = user-defined value — Allows you to enter a performance factor at the time

new forecasts are generated.



Performance factor = 1/((a * CPI) + (b * SPI)) (where a + b = 1.0) — Allows you to define a

performance factor that reflects the cumulative CPI and SPI and in which the relative weighting of

CPI and SPI are user-definable. This method allows you to indicate the relative importance of cost

and schedule performance when calculating performance factors.

– For example, assume that the cumulative CPI for a work package is 1.5 and the cumulative

SPI is 0.6. You want to assign a relative weighting of 75% to the cost performance and 25% to

the schedule performance. As a result, Cobra calculates a work-package performance factor

of 0.889.

– By contrast, if you assume the same values for CPI and SPI but assign a weighting of 25% to

cost performance and 75% to schedule performance, Cobra calculates a work-package

performance factor of 1.212.



Performance factor = 1/(CPI * SPI) (where SPI = EV/Budget) — Allows you to define a performance

factor based on both the cumulative cost performance index and the cumulative schedule

performance index.

– For example, assume that a work package originally budgeted at $10,000 is half way through

its schedule and has a cumulative Budget of $5000. Thirty-percent (30%) of the work package

budget has been earned, resulting in a cumulative EV of $3000. Cumulative actual costs,

however, are $2000. Thus, the work package has an unfavorable SPI of 0.6 (3000/5000) and a

favorable CPI of 1.5 (3000/2000).

– As a result, Cobra arrives at a work-package performance factor of 1.111.



• Multiple performance factors — This method allows you to have multiple performance factors. With

the multiple performance factor feature you can have Cobra calculate a different performance

factor depending on how much of the project has been completed. Cobra determines how much of

the project has been completed by comparing the cumulative EV to the BAC.

– When you define multiple performance factors for a forecast, you can define up to four ranges

of completion over which a particular performance factor takes effect. For example, if you want

to set up a forecast that uses a performance factor of 1 (forecast method 1) for the first third of

the work, a user-defined performance factor (forecast method 6) over the second third of the

work, and the cumulative CPI (forecast method 2) over the final third you can use the following

definition:


Capturing Trends



Trends

It is possible in Cobra to capture any project health indicators and create reports showing trends


Trends

Create a work package, resource, and cost class to hold the numbers.


Trends

The curve report will create a line graph.

Format the template to look like the style you require.

You can apply this same concept to other measurements, like expected progress or variance

monitoring


Forecast Trend Report Demo



Report

48,000,000

50,000,000

52,000,000

54,000,000

56,000,000

58,000,000

60,000,000

62,000,000

EAC Trend Past 12 months


Setup: Classes and Cost Sets


Setup: Reclass


Setup: Reclass (Custom Hook)

LPARAMETERS toObj

PRIVATE vpcProgram, conn

* Connect to the server

conn = SQLStringConnect( "dsn=Cobra5DSN;Trusted_Connection=True;" )

* Initialize variables

vpcProgram = toObj.GetParam( "Program" )

SQLExec(conn, "exec [dbo].[RC_EVMS_Advanced_Calendar_Custom_Hook] '"+ vpcProgram + "';")


Setup: Reclass (Custom Hook)The SQL for the stored procedure:

@pCobraProjectID nvarchar(22)

DELETE FROM TPHASE WHERE PROGRAM = @pCobraProjectID AND CLASS = 'EACMinus12';

UPDATE TPHASE SET CLASS = ‘EACMinus12’ WHERE PROGRAM = @pCobraProjectID AND CLASS

= 'EACMinus11';


= 'EACMinus10';


= 'EACMinus9';


= 'EACMinus8';


= 'EACMinus7';


Setup: Reclass (Custom Hook)UPDATE TPHASE SET CLASS = ‘EACMinus7’ WHERE PROGRAM = @pCobraProjectID AND CLASS

= 'EACMinus6';


= 'EACMinus5';


= 'EACMinus4';


= 'EACMinus3';


= 'EACMinus2';


= 'EACMinus1';


Setup: Reclass (Custom Hook)INSERT INTO TPHASE

(PROGRAM,CAWPID,CECODE,CLASS,DF_DATE,BATCHNO,COM,DIRECT,FEE,FRINGE,FTE,GANDA

,HOURS,OVERHEAD) SELECT

a.PROGRAM,a.CAWPID,a.CECODE,'EACMinus1',a.DF_DATE,'0',SUM(a.COM),SUM(a.DIRECT),SUM(

a.FEE),SUM(a.FRINGE),SUM(a.FTE),SUM(a.GANDA),SUM(a.HOURS),SUM(a.OVERHEAD) FROM

TPHASE a, COSTREPCLASS b WHERE a.PROGRAM = b.PROGRAM AND a.CLASS = b.CLASS AND

a.PROGRAM = @pCobraProjectID AND b.PROGRAM = @pCobraProjectID AND b.COST = 'EAC'

GROUP BY a.PROGRAM,a.CAWPID,a.CECODE,a.DF_DATE;

DELETE FROM COSTELEM WHERE PROGRAM = @pCobraProjectID AND CLASS LIKE

'EACMinus%';

INSERT INTO COSTELEM (PROGRAM,CAWPID,CECODE,CLASS) SELECT

PROGRAM,CAWPID,CECODE,CLASS FROM TPHASE WHERE PROGRAM = @pCobraProjectID AND

CLASS LIKE 'EACMinus%' GROUP BY PROGRAM,CAWPID,CECODE,CLASS;


Setup: Reclass (Batch)

To execute a batch process,

make a copy of a Cobra desktop

shortcut and change the target to

the Cobra.Api.exe. Add a user

name, password and script file.



Your script file will look something like:

[Process001]

ProcessID=Reclass

Project=<your project name>

SourceAction=CopyDelete

SourceClass=EACMinus11

TargetAction=Replace

TargetClass=EACMinus12

[Process002]

ProcessID=Reclass








[Process003]

ProcessID=Reclass






[Process004]

ProcessID=Reclass








[Process005]

ProcessID=Reclass






[Process006]

ProcessID=Reclass








[Process007]

ProcessID=Reclass






[Process008]

ProcessID=Reclass








[Process009]

ProcessID=Reclass






[Process010]

ProcessID=Reclass








[Process011]

ProcessID=Reclass






[Process012]

ProcessID=Reclass


SourceAction=Copy

SourceClass=ETC





[[Process013]

ProcessID=Reclass


SourceAction=Copy

SourceClass=ACWP

TargetAction=Add



Running the Report

Increase the maximum

number of cost sets allowed

Has one period flagged,

ATCOMPLETE


Formatting the Report

Click to have your cost sets

along the horizontal axis


Formatting the Report

Format the chart as desired

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Val

ue

Time-phase period

DRAFT Draftsmen

{CostSet1.Description}






Q&A


Monitoring Forecast

Trends Using Deltek

Cobra

Robb Webster, Principal Consultant, PrimePM

[email protected]

monitoring forecast trends using deltek cobra...2016/11/01 · performance factor = 1/cpi...

Documents