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MONETARY POLICY REPORT 2020/I Bank of Albania THE REPORT REFERS TO BANK OF ALBANIA’S MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT FOR 2019 H2, APPROVED BY THE SUPERVISORY COUNCIL, DECISION NO. 4 , DATED 5.2.2020

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Page 1: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Monetary Policy rePort

2020/i

Bank of albania

The reporT refers To Bank of alBania’s MoneTary policy sTaTeMenT for 2019 h2,

approved By The supervisory council, decision no. 4 , daTed 5.2.2020

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Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I

2Bank of Albania

Data from this publication may be used, provided the source is acknowledged.Published by: Bank of AlbaniaSheshi “Skënderbej”, Nr.1, Tirana, AlbaniaTel.: + 355 4 2419301/2/3; + 355 4 2419401/2/3Fax: + 355 4 2419408E-mail: [email protected]

Printed in: 220 copiesPrinted by: Adel Co sh.p.k.

www.bankofalbania.org

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C o n t e n t s

inTroducTion 7

foreWord By The Governor 8

1. price sTaBiliTy and Bank of alBania’s MoneTary policy 11

2. exTernal econoMic environMenT 162.1 Global economy 162.2 commodity prices in global markets 202.3 financial markets 20

3. financial MarkeTs and MoneTary developMenTs 223.1 financial markets 223.2 deposit and credit interest rates and financing conditions 273.3 credit to the private sector 313.4 Money and deposits in the economy 32

4.1 inflaTion 354. inflation and economic growth 354.2 Gross domestic product and aggregate demand 384.3 cyclical situation of the economy and inflationary pressures 51

sTaTisTical appendix 57

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B o x e s

T a B l e s

2. external economic environmentTable 1 economic indicators for countries in the region 19

4. inflationTable 2 contribution of key items to annual inflation (p.p.) 37Table 3 Balance of payments indicators. 51

Box 1 assessment of the effect of earthquake on the economy and prices 14Box 2 potential implications of the earthquake on the financial market 29Box 3 Balance of payments developments in 2019 Q3 50

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C h a r T s

2. external economic environmentchart 1 composite leading indicator of Gdp (left) and inflation (right) in major countries 17chart 2 selected macroeconomic indicators. 18

chart 3 oil prices in international and domestic markets 20chart 4 policy rates of major central banks 21chart 5 selected global financial indicators 21

3. financial markets and monetary developmentschart 6 Bank of albania open market operations and interbank rates performance 23chart 7 The exchange rate trend in the domestic foreign exchange market 24chart 8 The performance of the lek against the currencies of the main trading partner countries. 24chart 9 yields in primary market 26chart 10 deficit, instruments for financing it (left) and agents in the domestic market (right) 26chart 11 interest rates on new loans in lek and euro 27chart 12 non-price terms for loans to enterprises (left) and households (right) 28chart 13 The interest rate on lek and euro deposits 29chart 14 lending to the private sector 31chart 15 lending to the private sector and annual contributions by purpose of use 32chart 16 Money indicators 33chart 17 deposits in the banking system 34

4. inflationchart 18 headline inflation, target (left). inflation in regional and eu countries (right) 36chart 19 contribution by food and non-food categories to annual headline inflation 37chart 21 contribution of branches to value added in “industry, energy and water”, and the capacity utilisation rate in industry 40chart 22 valued added and capacity utilisation rate in construction 40chart 23 contribution of branches and capacity utilization rates in the services sector 42chart 24 economic sentiment indicator and structure of domestic demand 43chart 25 private consumption and consumer confidence 44chart 26 indirect indicators on the performance of private consumption 44chart 27 Gross fixed capital formation 45chart 28 short-term quantitative and qualitative indicators from investment surveys 45chart 29 orientation of fiscal policy 46chart 30 Budget expenditures 47chart 31 performance of budget revenues 48chart 32 contribution of net exports to aggregate demand (in p.p.) 48chart 33 import and export by category (in all million) 49chart 34 annual dated Brent oil prices, domestic oil export (left), metal prices index and domestic metal export (right) 49chart 35 indicators of the cyclical situation of the economy 52chart 36 participation in labour force, employment level and unemployment

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level in economy 52chart 37 average wage indicators (left) and annual flattened average changes of labour cost and their breakdown (right) 53chart 38 long-term inflation expectations (left) and short-term expectations (right) 54chart 39 iipi and contributions of its components (left). contributions of imported inflation and domestic inflation to annual headline inflation (right) 55chart 40 one-year-ahead inflation expectations, businesses and consumers (left) and financial agents, according to three horizons (right), annual change in % 55

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The primary objective of monetary policy in Albania is to achieve and maintain price stability. In quantitative terms, it is defined as maintaining inflation close to the 3% target.

In achieving this objective, the monetary policy sustains the stable and long-term growth of the Albanian economy, promotes financial stability and supports improvement in the overall welfare of society.

In accordance with the principles set out in the Monetary Policy Document, the Bank of Albania implements a forward-looking, consistent, balanced, prudent, and transparent monetary policy.

The economic and monetary analysis in this report is based on the statistical and qualitative data available as at 24 January 2020.

IntroduCtIon

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The new information analysed in this Report suggests that the economic activity in Albania was hit by the earthquake of November 26th, 2019, but this shock has not compromised the medium-and long-term trend of development. The consequences of the earthquake are expected to have a slowdown resultant effect on both the economic growth and inflation. However, this slowdown is expected to be temporary and concentrated during 2020.

The updating of our baseline scenario suggests that the growth pace will accelerate in the medium term. This acceleration is expected to bring the economy to equilibrium and inflation to target by 2021. Based on these considerations, the Supervisory Council deemed that the current monetary stimulus remains adequate.

The Supervisory Council concludes that downside risks have increased. Their materialisation might dictate a further easing of the monetary policy stance.

The conclusions of this Report are detailed following.

In the fourth quarter, inflation averaged 1.3%, down from the previous quarter, and remaining below our target of 3%. The decline in the inflation rate reflected the slower increase of food prices. This phenomenon is particularly present in December. While, prices of other basket items recorded less fluctuations.

From the macro-economic perspective, low inflation rates and the undershooting of the target reflect a still insufficient growth in wages and production costs in the economy, low inflation rates in our trading partners and the residual effect from the exchange rate appreciation in 2018. The decelerating effect of these factors will be gradually reduced in the medium term.

According to INSTAT data, the Albanian economy recorded an annual growth of 3.8% in the third quarter, accelerating from the first half of year, and in the upper side of our expectations. In sectoral terms, this acceleration was driven by the positive tourist season and the reduction of the negative effect originating from the fall in production of electrical energy. In terms of aggregate demand, it reflected the faster growth of consumption and exports, while private investments were down.

ForeWord BY tHe GoVernor

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The expansion of aggregate demand is combined with the gradual improvement of the country’s cyclical position in the last four years. In response to these trends, the unemployment rate stood at 11.4% in the third quarter, the historical lowest rate recorded in Albania, while the average wage recorded an annual growth of 3.7%.

Nevertheless, the rise of wages and production costs remains insufficient for inflation to converge to target, by showing that the Albanian economy is still far of the fuller utilisation of its production capacities.

The information available on the economic developments in the fourth quarter is incomplete. Analysis of preliminary data suggests that the earthquake of November 26th, 2019, had a negative impact on the economic growth pace. This effect is expected to continue in 2020 as well. The damages to firms’ sites, the increase of uncertainty and the re-orientation of expenditures to repair the damages, are expected materialise in the slowdown of the production in the affected sectors, including tourism. On the other side, the re-construction process is expected to provide a positive effect on the growth, but not simultaneously with the negative shocks, and not sufficiently strong to compensate their effects.

Judging on the available information and global experience, the Bank of Albania deems that the earthquake has not damaged the medium-term and long-term basis of the country growth and development.

The reconstruction process and the normalisation of the situation will help to regenerate the production capacities and a faster expansion of the aggregate demand in 2021 and further. The rise in employment and wages will support the expansion of family consumption; the rise of utilisation of production capacities will increase the demand for investments; while Albanian exports will continue to benefit from the development of tourism sector.

In parallel, the overall financial environment appears favourable. The financial markets are relatively calm, financing costs are low, while the exchange rate appears more stable. Our accommodative monetary policy stance, the restructuring of banking sector and the improvement of its balance sheet have boosted a more rapid credit growth. The credit portfolio grew by 7.8% on average in the fourth quarter, driven by the expansion of credit to enterprises and of credit in lek. The structure of credit growth provides encouraging signals, both on its impact on economic growth and on credit portfolio quality in the long term. At the same time, non-performing loans ratio dropped at 8.4% in December, by reflecting the concrete measures implemented by the Bank of Albania for their reduction and the improvement of both economic environment and financial situation of borrowers.

Looking ahead, the Bank of Albania deems that the earthquake effect on the economy is expected to concentrate during 2020. Both the economic growth and average inflation in 2020 are expected to be comparable with the rates

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recorded during 2019. On the other side, overcoming the consequences of the earthquake is expected to pave the way for a more rapid growth of economy and inflation in the period ahead.

Our baseline projection, compared with the previous round, shows a notable shift to the down side for 2020, but it maintains the same trajectories for 2021 and on. These forecasts are surrounded by a heightened level of uncertainty, linked primarily to the inability of precisely forecasting the impact of the earthquake on the economic growth. Also, the balance of risks around the central forecast is tilted to the down side.

Judging on these projections, the Bank of Albania deems that the current monetary policy stance remains adequate. The fulfilment of our objective - price stability - would require maintaining the accommodative stance of the monetary policy in the medium term.

The risks to the down side remain present. These risks arise from both the external environment, with the euro area economy improvement still remaining fragile, and the domestic environment. In particular, the potential risks with possible adverse impact are:

• Astrongerintensityoftheearthquakenegativeeffectsontheeconomyperformance over 2020 and on. In particular, this scenario might be materialised if the psychological aspects of the earthquake exceed its material impact on the economy.

• Thedelay in the reconstructionprogrammeorahigher support fromdomestic financing sources.

Addressing the factors that can lead to these risks materialise is in the remit of the central and local governments. However, if they do materialise, the monetary policy stance would need to be revised on the easing side.

Finally, the Bank of Albania emphasises the need for further accelerating the structural reforms, as the best instrument for improving sustainable and long-term growth in Albania, and maintaining the focus of the economic policies on the long-term stability of the country.

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The new information analysed in this report points to a complex dynamics in the second half of the previous year and makes the forecast for the short-term trends of the country’s development difficult. On one hand, the performance of both economic activity and labour market in the third quarter, as well as monetary developments in the fourth quarter have been positive. On the other hand, the low inflation in the fourth quarter; the earthquake of 26th

November 2019; and the worsening of confidence indicators, suggest a possible slowdown in this period, and - potentially – also in the forthcoming quarters.

Available data show that the Albanian economy continued to improve the cyclical position until the third quarter. In line with this performance, the domestic medium-term inflationary pressures continued to increase, although they remain insufficient for the convergence of inflation to target. In parallel, imported inflation continues to remain low, in response to developments in international markets and the appreciation of the exchange rate during the previous quarters.

Financial markets are calm, characterised by low interest rates, ample liquidity and increased stability of the exchange rate. Both the increase of the demand and the improvement of bank credit supply were accompanied by a better transmission of monetary stimulus and an upward trend of credit to private sector.

In the short run, the consequences from the earthquake are expected to feed into the slowdown of the economic activity, but they will not affect the expected economic trends in the medium term. The update of our medium-term forecasts suggests inflation will converge to target within 2021, albeit the downside risks remain dominant.

In accordance with these projections, the current stance of the monetary policy remains adequate. Bank of Albania will continue to assess on on-going basis the adequacy of this stance and the intensity of monetary stimulus, always aiming at the convergence of inflation to target within the medium-term time horizon.

The new analysed information shows a positive performance of economy in the third quarter. According to INSTAT data, the Albanian economy grew 3.8% in this period, compared with 2.5% in the first half of 2019. The higher pace of economic growth was mainly driven by the good tourist season, the growth

1. PrICe staBIlItY and Bank oF alBanIa’s monetarY PolICY

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of industrial production and the fading out of the negative effect from the lower electricity output. Also, labour market continued to improve in the third quarter, driving the unemployment rate at the historical minimum level of 11.4%.

Annual inflation averaged 1.3% in the fourth quarter, down from the previous quarter. Inflation reduction, in this quarter, was attributable to the fall in prices of rents and oil. On the other hand, processed food prices have increased, while prices of other items in consumer basket maintained low positive contributions to inflation.

The slow increase of costs in the domestic economy and the weak pressures from external environment affected the low inflation. The rise in wages and production costs is still insufficient for inflation to converge to target. In turn, core inflation stands at low levels. Also, imported inflation remains at low levels reflecting the low prices in international markets and the appreciation of the exchange rate.

Financing conditions and lending have maintained the improving trend at the end of year. This performance reflects the accommodative stance of the monetary policy. Financial conditions for firms and households continue to be characterised by low interest rates and reduced risk premia. Also, the annual appreciation of the exchange rate has been trending downward, lessening its tightening effect on financing conditions.

The favourable financing conditions have supported the expansion of credit portfolio to private sector. Adjusted for loan write offs and the exchange rate, this portfolio recorded 7.5%, annual growth, in December. Credit growth to private sector was supported by the higher financing to enterprises. Credit in the domestic currency has accelerated in the last quarter, thus helping the better balancing of credit portfolio. The ratio of loans in lek to total loans to the private sector increased at 48.7%.

The new economic and financial information suggests that both medium-term and long-term trends of development remain positive. Nevertheless, the short-term perspective of economic and financial developments shall be considerably determined by the consequences of November 26th earthquake.

The earthquake impact on the macroeconomic indicators is foreseen to be negative, in the short run. Its effects may be transmitted into the economy thorough a possible reduction in: consumption; private investments; tourism and other economic activities, in the affected areas. On the other side, the re-construction programme will give a positive impulse to construction sector.

The slowdown of the growth pace is expected to reduce the inflationary pressures in the short run. In line with this forecast, inflation is projected to hover around the average 1.6% in 2020, lower than our previous projections.

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In the medium term, economic growth pace is expected to accelerate, by increasing the inflationary pressures. The re-construction programme to recover the stock of lost capital will give a positive impulse to construction sector, by supporting the faster growth of economy. The return of economy to equilibrium will be accompanied by the increasingly utilisation of production capacities and a faster rise in wages and production costs. In accordance with these forecasts, inflation is expected to converge to the target in the second half of 2021.

Forecasts in the baseline scenario require maintaining the accommodative stance of the monetary policy in the medium term. Monetary stimulus is necessary to support the growth of aggregate demand and build up domestic inflationary pressures.

The macroeconomic forecasts in this Report are updated in the context of an increased uncertainty. Albeit the medium-term development perspectives of the Albanian economy are stable, the economic performance in the short run remains subject to the degree of materialisation of the earthquake consequences in the macroeconomic indicators. The impulse generated from the re-construction programme is particularly important to the medium-term dynamic of both aggregate demand and production. The size and structure of financing, as well as the timely allocation of expenditures for re-constriction may have significant effect on the performance of both production and inflation.

Bank of Albania will continuously aim at adjusting the monetary stimulus to the new macroeconomic data. In the event this information suggests a slower performance of both economy and inflation compared to our current projections, Bank of Albania is willing to undertake a further easing of the monetary policy stance.

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Box 1 assessMenT of The effecT of earThQuake on The econoMy and prices

The earthquake that hit albania on november 26th, 2019, caused many damages in residential and trading buildings, disruption of economic activities and increased the uncertainty. The ability to assess and forecast the size and extent of these effects is limited, due to the lack of such episodes in the close past. The international evidence suggests that in event of natural disasters, the economic activity pursues a v-trajectory: at the first moments, the disruption of economic activity and capital damage drive to production loss, but evolving, the expenses to recover the lost capital boost the economy.

This Box aims at presenting a prior assessment on the possible impacts of the earthquake on the economy in the short and medium term, and the expected transmission channels of them*. These assessments are based on preliminary available data, which, as such are subject of a high uncertainty.

our analyses evidences that short -term effects of the earthquake are expected to be negative on both economic growth and inflation. With the extension of time horizon, the positive effect of re-construction are expected to be dominant, and to support the growth of economy and inflation at a faster pace. in the medium term, the earthquake effect on the economy will depend on, among others, the volume and form of re-construction process financing, and the extension in time of its allocation.

Based on the available information so far, we assess that the degree on which these potential impacts will materialise is expected to be low. each of the above stated points is addressed following:

Possible transmission channels of the earthquake consequences

durrësi was the district most hit by the earthquake. according to insTaT, this district generates around 10% of albania Gross domestic product, it accommodates around 10.1% of the population of the country, and it employs around 9.1% of employed persons in economy. statistics about durrësi show that around 7.9% of active enterprises in albania conduct their activity in this district. during 2018, durrësi was visited by around 9.1% of residents who travelled for either personal or business purposes in albania. These statistics illustrates the economic importance of this region and suggest that the economic consequences of the earthquake will be felt on country level.

The potential transmission channels of the earthquake consequences may be:

- increase of uncertainty among albanian households and businesses. The earthquake seems to worsen the perception of albanian households and enterprises, who may hesitate in conducting expenditures and investments. uncertainty indicators, calculated from the confidence survey of economic agents, show the increase of uncertainty during the last months;

- reduction of tourist activity. Tourism in this district may be reduced due to the damage of respective structures and the psychological effect of both national and international visitors. damages of firms across other sectors, in addition to tourism, remain a transmission channel;

- Growth of investments for recovering the lost capital stock. Through this channel, the high levels of private and public expenditures - boost the economy- which relate to the re-construction of the damaged capacities.

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Assessment of the effect of earthquake on the economy and prices

in the current stage, it is difficult making precise assessments on the extent of materialisation and duration of the earthquake effect on economy and prices, through the above-mentioned channels. our preliminary analyses and assessments show that its short-term effect will be negative. summarising:

- The earthquake consequences may reduce the economic growth by 0.3-0.6 percentage point s during 2020. This effect combines the reduction in tourism revenues and the deceleration of consumers’ spending given the heightened uncertainty. The effect from reduction of expenditures for consumption is expected to be lower compared with the reduction in tourism. The shock in confidence and uncertainty are expected to reduce over time and consumers are expected to return to their consumption model. in January, the economic sentiment indicator maintained the level of the previous month. on the other side, the positive stimulus which will be injected into economy from the reconstruction activity of the damaged objects is expected to balance the negative effect of the earthquake. considering the necessary time for the collection of funds and the compilation of logistic plans for action, this effect is expected to cover the calendar year unevenly. for that reason, the positive impact from reconstruction, albeit cushioning the negative effects of the earthquake, fails to fully counterbalance the latter.

- The earthquake shock may reduce inflation by 0.2 - 0.3 percentage points during 2020. The growth of aggregate demand at a low pace, during the current year, would be accompanied with weak pressures for the rise of wages, other production costs and consumption prices in economy. in the analysis of the earthquake effect on inflation, it is important to assess its impact on the production capacities of the economy, and consequently, on the size of output gap.

The reduction of short-term effect of the earthquake is expected to be accompanied with the recovery of the economic growth rates in the medium-term horizon. first, the key factors that support economic growth have not changed considerably. This judgement is based on the low impact on: capital stock and the production base of economy; financial sector balance sheet; and the simulating financial environment. second, re-construction activity is expected to provide a crucial stimulus to the economy beyond the short-term horizon. construction sector is expected to accelerate by providing positive chained effects on other related sectors. Third, the recovery of capital stock enables its replacement with new and improved capital, by boosting economic growth in the long term.

* Box 2 summarises the analysis and assessments of the Bank of Albania about the potential impacts of earthquake on the financial sector.

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The global economy has showed signs of improvement in 2019 H2, after the slowdown trend it pursed in the first half of year. Advanced countries are expected to grow at a more moderate pace in 2020. The emerging countries are expected to increase faster compared to the previous year, albeit, the recovery of the high growth rates will be slow. Expectations on the economic growth are surrounded by downside uncertainties, originating from the increase of geopolitical tensions and the structural problems in the manufacturing sector in some countries.1.

Inflation rates have started to show a slight increase, mainly affected by the increase in energy price at the end of year. Inflationary pressures continue to be contained, although in some countries the unemployment rates record the lowest historical values.

Major central banks continue to pursue an accommodative monetary policy. Financial markets continue to appear calm and financial conditions remain favourable.

2.1 GloBal eConomY

The global economy improved in 2019 H2, albeit the growth pace remain slow. The trade disagreements between USA and China appear close to a solution and the indicators on global economy have started to expand again. Nevertheless, the outlook for the global economic growth appears unsecured, within the context where geopolitical tensions are rising. Risks to the global economic growth remain on the downside.

In 2019 Q3, GDP in Japan, China and India recorded slower growth rates, while USA, euro area and many advanced countries recorded slightly higher growth rates. The leading indicators on economic growth (PMI2) and OECD confidence indicators suggest a moderate growth pace in the fourth quarter. Inflation rates increased, at the end of year, affected by the rise in oil price, but the long-term inflationary pressures appear down.

1 IMF forecasts, World Economic Outlook, January 2020. 2 PMI is the composite output index, constructed from the information available from survey and

serves as preliminary indicator on economic growth. This index is published by the Markit on a monthly basis.

2. external eConomIC enVIronment

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Chart 1 Composite Leading Indicator of GDP (left) and in�ation (right) in major countries

Source: OECD

-3.6%

-1.8%

0.0%

1.8%

3.6%

2013

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Hun

dred

s

Greece Italy Eurozone OECD

97.00

97.50

98.00

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102.00

01/13

09/13

05/14

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06/16

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11/19

Japan USA Eurozone China

Composite Leading Indicator (CLI)

Financing conditions continue to be favourable for borrowers, as the major central banks have affirmed the monetary policy easing. The more optimistic expectations about the economic growth, being favoured also by the eased policy orientation of central banks, have positively affected the performance of equity market and have favoured the moderate recovery of long-term yields.

united states economy

In 2019 Q3, the economic growth pace in USA pursued the slowdown trend started since the beginning of 2019. Consumer spending have continued to support the economic growth, but their increase pace have slowed down. Also, government spending, residential investments and net exports have positively affected the growth, while non-residential investments provided an opposite impact. The positive news about the reduced US-China trade tensions affected the increase of foreign trade. The inflation rate trended upward in 2019 Q4, driven by the energy prices. Core inflation did not change standing close to the target of Federal Reserve. Unemployment rate continued to record low values, unchanged at 3.5% in November and December.

In the United States, growth is expected to be sluggish in 2020. Consumer spending will continue to provide a positive contribution, while the reduced fiscal stimulus will effect on the downside the economic growth.

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Chart 2 Selected macroeconomic indicators

Source: Eurostat, BEA, BLS.

0

1

2

3

4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

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2019Q3

Euro area GermanyFrance UKUSA

Euro area GermanyFrance UKUSA

Euro area GermanyFrance UKUSA

0

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4

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2017M03

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2017M07

2017M09

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2019M07

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2019M11

Annual in�ation

3

5

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9

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2017M03

2017M05

2017M07

2017M09

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2018M03

2018M05

2018M07

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2019M01

2019M03

2019M05

2019M07

2019M09

2019M11

Unemployment RateGDP, YoY change

euro area economy

In 2019 Q3, the economic growth in the euro area showed equal rates with the previous quarter. Economic activity recorded the same pace with the second quarter, both in annual and quarterly terms, 1.2% and 0.2%, respectively. GDP growth was underpinned by the increase of consumer and government spending and the increase of investments. On the opposite, the contribution of net exports to economic growth remained negative. By sector, the economic growth was supported by services sector, while industrial production provided a negative contribution to the growth. The analysis by country shows the positive developments in France, Spain and Germany (the latter shrunk a quarter earlier).

Data available suggest the GDP growth in euro area will continue at a moderate pace in the fourth quarter. Preliminary indicators of economic developments (PMI) increased these months; nevertheless remaining below the averages recorded when the economic growth was strong. The weakness is mainly noted in industrial sector, whose production continues to be below the expected levels. The recent projections3 of the European Central Bank have revised down the economic growth for 2020.

In the last quarter, inflation remained unchanged and below the ECB’s target. The updated forecast of ECB experts assess that inflation will continue to be contained in the next two years.

In Italy, economic activity grew at a positive, but low, pace. Economic growth was fuelled by consumer spending and investments, while net exports provided a decelerating impact on the economic growth, by reflecting the faster increase of imports. Although slowing down, economic activity in Greece, recorded

3 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, December 2019.

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a higher positive growth than the European region. This growth was mainly supported by investments and net exports, while the slowdown of private consumption and the contraction of public consumption decelerated the aggregate growth of the economy. Unemployment rate in both countries stands above the Euro area average, with marginal changes per month. Inflation picked up more rapidly in both countries in December, but it continues to recode lower rates than ECB’s target.

reGional econoMies4

In 2019 Q3, the regional economies showed higher growth, compared to 2019 Q2. They mainly benefited from higher consumer spending and investments, which account for the main share of aggregate demand. Unemployment rates trended downward across the regional countries. The economic growth across the regional countries will maintain the similar pace in the fourth quarter as well. Risks on the expectations for the economic outlook of the regional countries are set on the downside and mostly relate to the slowdown in the euro area, the main trading partner of the regional countries.

The economy of kosovo accelerated the growth in 2019 Q3, supported by the strong increase of government spending and the expansion of consumer spending. The slowdown in investments and net exports has negatively impacted the economic growth. In 2019 Q3, economic growth in serbia was supported at a broader base. The strong increase of investments is accompanied by the improvement of both consumer and government spending and by the acceleration of net exports. Economic growth in north macedonia was underpinned by the positive performance of both government and consumer spending and the strong increase of investments. The slowdown of exports has impacted negatively the pace of aggregate growth. Economy of turkey returned to the annual positive growth in 2019 Q3, after three quarters of economic contraction. The increase of consumer and government spending fuelled this growth. The contraction in investments and the weak performance of net exports affected negatively the economic growth.

Table 1 Economic indicators for countries in the regionAnnual change of GDP Annual inflation Unemployment rate

2019 Q3 December 2019 2019 Q3Italy 0.3 0.5 9.7*Greece 2.3 1.1 16.6**North Macedonia 3.6 0.4 17.1Serbia 4.8 1.9 9.5Turkey 0.9 11.8 13.4**Kosovo 4.3 1.2 24.5Albania 3.8 1.1 11.4

Source: Respective statistical institutes. *November 2019; **October 2019.

4 The main trading partners outside the European Union (Kosovo, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey).

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In December 2019, inflation rates picked up in all countries, except of Kosovo. The items of “Transport” and “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” remain the determinant factors of inflation in the region.

2.2 CommodItY PrICes In GloBal markets

The main indices of commodity prices trended upward in 2019 Q4. The annual increase of indices shifted gradually from negative values to positive ones at the end of year. The Food Price Index drove to the acceleration of the annual growth pace by around 7% in December, mainly affected by the increase in the prices of cereals. The Metal Price Index recorded one-figure positive increase in December, for the first time since the middle of 2018. The performance of this index is affected by the positive news on US-China trade deal.

In December, Brent oil price averaged 67.3$/barrel, up around 17.3% annually, from -2.4% a month earlier. The geopolitical tensions in Middle East - which are expected to decelerate the crude oil supply-, affected the increase of this item price. According to market forecasts oil prices will decline in the next months5.

Chart 3 Oil prices in international and domestic markets

Source: INSTAT, staff calculations; WB indices; EIA forecasts.

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2.3 FInanCIal markets

At the end of October, Fed cut, for the third time this year, the federal funds target range, by 25 basis points, down to 1.50%-1.75%. The ECB maintained the interest rate on the main refinancing operations unchanged, while it confirmed the expansion of the Asset Purchase Programme. The policy rate of the Bank of England stands at 0.75%, while that of the Bank of Japan stands at -0.1%.

5 Forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration: “Short-term energy outlook”, January 2020.

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The yields on government securities in advanced economies showed a slight upward trend during these months. The heightening of expectations on a US-China trade deal and the eased monetary policies implemented by central banks have favoured the shift of investors’ interest, from bonds to equities market, which coupled with the more optimistic assessments on the economic growth outlook is reflected on a slight growth of long-term yields.

The spread between securities of countries that need fiscal consolidation against German Bonds overall remained unchanged during this period. Yields on corporate bonds in the euro area markets also edged slightly down during these months affected by the ECB’s asset purchase programme of private sector securities. In the euro area money market, interest rates on short-term instruments remain at negative levels.

Chart 5 Selected global �nancial indicators

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters and Eurostat.

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The Euro reduced the depreciation against US dollar during 2019 Q4, hovering at levels almost similar with the previous quarter. In December, the euro was traded for 1.11 US dollars, appreciating 0.6% on average, compared to the previous three months. In annual terms, the euro depreciated 2.4% from the previous year.

Chart 4 Policy rates of major central banks

Source: Central banks (ECB, Fed, BJ and BE).

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The financial market in 2019 Q4 was characterized by decreasing risk premiums, low interest rates and favourable liquidity conditions. Yields on government securities were downward this quarter, driven by the banks’ high demand to invest in them. Banking financing costs remained low for households and enterprises, reflecting low risk premiums and increase of the banking sector efficiency following the consolidation process. Currency risk indicators in the foreign exchange market appeared to be within normal parameters.

Favourable financial conditions and structural improvements of the banking sector supported the expansion of lending activity, especially lending in lek, which recorded high growth rates in the fourth quarter. These positive developments are also reflected in the monetary expansion in the economy and expansion of other monetary indicators. The financial situation so far does not signal for increased risks in the post-earthquake financial activity in the economy.

3.1 FInanCIal markets

interbank Market

Interbank rates hovered near the policy rate in 2019 Q4, in line with the operational objective of monetary policy. The liquidity of the banking system was at adequate levels for the monetary policy transmission, thus not being a stress factor in the money market. The interests applied on two main maturities used for daily and weekly fund exchanges recorded a decrease in the marginal rates this quarter, and continued to maintain minimal spread against the policy rate. Their volatility was also low, close to values noted in the previous quarters of the year6. Trading volumes slightly decreased compared to the previous quarters, as a result of the reduction of transactions in both maturities. Overnight and one-week maturities remain the most employed ones; in addition, the 2-, 3-days transactions have been also used.

6 The standard deviation of the overnight interbank rates in the fourth quarter of the year was 0.06, from 0.05 and 0.06, respectively in the two previous quarters.

3. FInanCIal markets and monetarY deVeloPments

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Chart 6 Bank of Albania open market operations and interbank rates performance

Source: Bank of Albania.

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The Bank of Albania continued to supply liquidity to the banking system through its main instrument, the one-week repo, and through the three-month maturity injections. As a result of the decrease in the liquidity deficit, the injected amount was lower than in the third quarter of the year, mainly in injections with one-week maturity. In the meantime, interest rates in auctions have always been close to the policy rate.

doMesTic foreiGn exchanGe MarkeT

The domestic currency (lek) depreciated in 2019 Q4, following the appreciation in the two previous quarters, which coincided with a good tourist season. The average exchange rate was 122.7 lek/euro in this quarter, with a lek depreciation of 0.9% compared to the previous quarter. Lek continues its appreciation against the euro, compared to the previous year, although at a lesser extent. Lek appreciation slowed down considerably, dropping at 1.4% in the last quarter of the year, from 3.4% in the two previous quarters, and from 5.9% in the first quarter of the year.

Concerning the shorter-term horizon, December was characterized by the appreciation of lek against euro by 0.5%, in line with its seasonal behaviour. Euro/Lek exchange rate hovered around the average of 122.0 lek/ euro in the first three weeks of January, with no significant change from the average level in December. Overall, the euro trading in the foreign exchange market during the recent months has been calm; Risk indicators appeared at optimum levels7 and in the market, no slanted expectations have been noted on either

7 Bid-ask spreads in the euro / lek exchange rate and volatility indicators have been low and within their normal values.

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the appreciation or the depreciation of the Lek8. The performance of these indicators shows the normalization of agents’ expectations in the market and he lack of speculations regarding the future performance of the exchange rate.

Chart 7 The exchange rate trend in the domestic foreign exchange market

Source: Bank of Albania. Data as at 23 January 2020.

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The performance of the US dollar in the domestic market reflected its appreciation in the international foreign exchange market, further reinforced by the depreciation of lek against euro. The USD/ALL rate averaged 110.8 lek/usd in the fourth quarter, with a lek depreciation of 1.4% compared to the third quarter, and 1.6% compared to the previous year. In the first weeks of January, the US dollar was traded at values close to those registered in December.

Chart 8 The performance of the lek against the currencies of the main trading partner countries.

Source: Bank of Albania.

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8 The exchange rate appreciation/depreciation ratio is calculated as the ratio of the number of days when the lek is depreciated against the number of days when the lek is depreciated, over a moving time horizon of 250 days. The value of this indicator near 1 indicates an equal number of cases of appreciation and depreciation. If this indicator is significantly and persistently above 1, there are one-sided pressures for appreciation in the market and vice versa.

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In nominal effective terms9, lek depreciated by 0.7% in the fourth quarter against the third quarter of the year, reflecting its depreciation against all currencies of the main trading partner countries, except for the Turkish lira. The effective annual appreciation of lek continued to narrow, falling to 1.7% in this quarter, from 3.1% in the previous quarter. The real effective exchange rate has shown a similar trajectory to the nominal. The annual appreciation of the exchange rate was 1.0% in the fourth quarter, from 2.5% in the third quarter.

priMary MarkeT

T-Bills and bond yields in the primary market trended downward in 2019 Q4. The performance of yields mainly reflected the behaviour of banks and their competitive bids. Given the lack of pressures from government’s supply, the banks’ demand was higher and drove to their decrease. The average yield of 12-month T-bills fell to 1.7% in December, from 2.3% and 2.1% in September and October, respectively. Similar to the previous quarter, banks have confirmed their interest in government debt securities, thus keeping the bid-to-cover ratio always high, especially in the long-term segments10. During this quarter, yields declined along the whole curve and as a consequence its slope remained roughly the same as in October. However, compared to the previous year, the yield curve has been flattening, mainly as a result of the decrease of premiums in long-term maturities, which are more preferred by the banks.

The downward trend in yields was somewhat curbed at the end of December and in the first auctions of 2020; bond yields did not change, while bond premiums registered marginal growth. In the last auction in January, the 12-month bond yield was 1.76%, being roughly the same as the average in December. Similarly, bond yields declined in the last three months, but in the recent auctions they registered marginal growth. Thus, the yield on the 2-year and 10-year bonds was 2.25% and 5.29%, respectively, in January from 2.16% and 5.20%, respectively, in the previous auctions held in December and October.

9 The nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) is calculated against the currencies of Albania’s five major trading partners (Italy, Greece, Germany, Turkey and China), using the relevant market weights. For the purpose of calculating lira/lek and yuan/lek rates, the official reference rates remain those of the Turkish lira and the Chinese yuan against the US dollar. The real effective exchange rate (REER) is calculated similarly to the nominal, but it considers the domestic inflation and those in the trading partners, as well.

10 The bid/cover ratio for T-bill auctions realised in the period October-December was 1.3. This ratio for bond auctions is 1.6 for this period.

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Chart 9 Yields in primary market

Source: Bank of Albania. The chart includes auctions conducted as at 23 January 2020.

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financinG To puBlic secTor

By the end of the 11-month period, budget deficit totalled around ALL 10.6 billion, from ALL 0.9 billion in the same period in the previous year. Deficit financing sources during 2019 were domestic, the use of which beyond the budget deficit has led to the reduction of government external debt by about ALL 10.4 billion by the end of the 11-month period.

The budget deficit in October and November expanded by about ALL 7.2 billion. Its financing came through borrowing in the primary market for government securities (84%), as well as the use of liquidity created throughout the year, thus staying in line with the approach implemented during the first 9 months. Domestic borrowing during these two months increased by ALL 6.1 billion, which consisted entirely of long-term debt denominated in lek.

Chart 10 De�cit, instruments for �nancing it (left) and agents in the domestic market (right) *

*Values above the horizontal axis in this chart imply Fiscal de�cit; values below zero imply Fiscal surplus.Source: Ministry of Finance and Economy, Bank of Albania.

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In the fourth quarter, the borrowing structure in the primary securities’ market was similar to that of the two previous quarters. Thus, similar to the two previous quarters, commercial banks continued to play the primary role in financing the fiscal deficit in the domestic market (at around 87%). This structure of the primary market seems to reflect at the largest extend, the strategy pursued by the government since July 2018. Its main aim is the market’s development for benchmark securities11, which intends to serve as a stimulus for the development of the secondary market in the future.

In the last quarter of 2019, non-bank financial institutions continued to show interest in expanding their securities portfolio, and this interest continued during the rest of the year. Meanwhile, unlike the first three quarters, the participation of households in the primary securities market was more active, and it was finalized with an increase by 1.4% of their existing portfolio by the end of September 2019.

3.2 dePosIt and CredIt Interest rates and FInanCInG CondItIons

Interest rates on new loans to the private sector continued to hover near their lowest levels, both for lek and euro loans. Their level indicates lower cost of financing in lek to the private sector since after the first quarter of the year. The lower interest rates reflect a reduction in risk premiums and a more positive approach of banks toward lending, driven also by increased competition following the consolidation process in the banking system.

Chart 11 Interest rates on new loans in lek and euro

Source: Bank of Albania.Note: Interest rates and the spread between them are presented as a 6-month moving average.

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The average interest rate on new loans in lek was 6.3% in 2019 Q4, remaining the same as the two previous quarters’ average. The interest rate of loans to 11 Since the beginning of the issue of the benchmark bond, in July 2018, government borrowing

increased mostly due to this type of instruments. For 2018, they were 5-year bonds, whereas in 2019, 3-year bonds were also added.

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enterprises was stable at 6.1%, reflecting slightly lower interest rates rate for liquidity financing loans and a marginal increase of loans rate for investment financing. Households continued to receive mortgage loans at low interest rate, whilst interest rates on consumer loans increased in this quarter.

Average interest rate for new loans in euro to the private sector was 4.2% in the fourth quarter, slightly up compared to the previous quarter (4.0), but remaining near the average level of the last two years. The growth of this quarter is mainly driven by the increase in the rates of loans for investments granted to enterprises, while interest rates on loans for liquidity to enterprises and to households changed to a negligible extent. The spread between interest rates on lek and euro loans remains at low levels of about 2.0 percentage points for enterprises, 3.0 percentage points for households and almost zero for mortgage loans12.

Non-price terms and conditions of loans to enterprises and householdsBanks’ terms and conditions of loans to enterprises remained unchanged during the last quarter of the year. The increase in loan size compared to the previous quarter was offset by the higher conditionality set out in the respective loans to enterprises agreements. 

Chart 12 Non-price terms for loans to enterprises (left) and households (right)

Source: Bank of Albania and staff estimates.

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The general terms and conditions of loans to households did not change in the last quarter of the year. Thus, commissions, loan size, collateral requirement in relation to the loan received, and terms of the loan agreement, as well as the maximum loan maturity remained the same as in the previous quarter.

The financing costs for the banking activity through deposits remain low, thus supporting low interest rates on loans. The average interest rate on new time deposits in lek stands at 0.76% in 2019 Q4, close to the levels of the two

12 The values are the average for 2019.

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previous quarters and slightly below the average of the previous year. Interest rates on time deposits of up to one year, which make up the majority of time deposits have been stable, while rates for deposits with higher maturities have been downward for several quarters. The average interest rate on new time deposits in euro was 0.14% in this quarter, close to its average in the last two years. The spread between the interest rate on Lek and Euro deposits is minimal, by 0.7 percentage point during 2019.

Chart 13 The interest rate on lek and euro deposits

Source: Bank of Albania.

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Box 2 poTenTial iMplicaTions of The earThQuake on The financial MarkeT

in addition to Box 1, the following section addresses the potential impact that the earthquake implications or the measures taken to address them may have on the financial market. a significant amount of financial indicators are measured and reported at a periodic frequency compared with other economic data, and as such they provide preliminary signals on what is happening in the economy. after the earthquake, the Bank of albania kept these indicators under special monitoring, in order to identify potential signs of stress in the financial market. so far, no tangible impact of the earthquake has been identified in the market. from the previous year’s experience, or even from that of the other countries, shocks of this nature can be manifested in the market in three main directions: (1) in the volatility in yields and in other interest rates, (2) the volatility of the foreign exchange market, and (3) the lending performance. More specifically, these implications are discussed below.

(1) volatility in yields and other interest rates

interest rate volatility may increase due to the uncertainties of economic agents and / or increased government borrowing in the domestic market to finance measures to address earthquake-related damages. so far, there is no evidence of increased volatility or uncertainty in the financial market segments. The addition to the government deficit for 2020, planned after the earthquake, is

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about all 10 billion, of which about all 7 billion is projected to be financed through increased borrowing in the domestic market. This amount remains within the historical funding rates, and is considered affordable by the money market, without causing shocks to the yields performance. in the government securities auctions conducted post-earthquake, yields have fluctuated in a narrow range, with no real upward trend.

(2) volatility in the foreign exchange market

during the two months following the earthquake, the exchange rate has fluctuated roughly in line with its seasonal year-end behaviour. foreign currency trading was conducted within normal risk parameters and no signs of stress were detected in the volatility indicators.

The potential impacts on the exchange rate performance in the current year are twofold and the risks are balanced. on the one hand, with the depreciating effect on the value of the lek lies the scenario of possible reductions of revenues from the tourism. The impacts of the earthquake were more pronounced in the coast area of durres and as a result the tourism activity might be weaker this year, since the reception capacity has reduced and there is need for reconstruction. also the foreign tourists might feel discouraged to visit durres after such event. on the other hand, an increase of inflows in the form of remittances or foreign aid and donations is also possible, in support of the families affected by the earthquake. The impact on the exchange rate will be a result of the action of these two factors.

(3) lending performance

lending to the economy has been steadily improving over the last year, reflecting the growth of loans to enterprises and the stable performance of loans to households. The potential impact on the continuity of loan growth may result in two scenarios: on the one hand, the slowdown of the economic activity in sectors affected by the earthquake and the increase of the uncertainties of households, enterprises or even the banks themselves may induce a slowdown of loan growth. Bank of albania deems that even if this happens, it would be temporary, as will the consequences of the earthquake in the real economy be. on the other hand, the need for restructuring and replacement of physical capital may be associated with increase of loan demand. The balance between these two scenarios will also depend on the risks-weighting by banks and their approach to lending.

To sum it all up, based on the information available to date, we deem that the materialization of earthquake-related risks is expected to be limited in the financial market. however, all indicators are under constant monitoring, in order to timely detect and address the issues.

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3.3 CredIt to tHe PrIVate seCtor13

The growth rates of banks’ financing to the private sector improved in the fourth quarter, averagely at 7.8% or 0.3 percentage point higher compared to the previous quarter. Credit to GDP ratio also increased, reaching 36.5% or 1.2 percentage points higher compared to the previous year. Positive developments in the lending activity were supported by the easing of credit supply and the structural improvements that have taken place in the banking sector during 2019. Meanwhile, demand for loans is not stable yet - after rising for two consecutive quarters, it decreased in the last quarter, impacted by both enterprises and households. Based on the banks’ opinion, the performance in the last quarter was also affected by the post-earthquake situation14. From a longer point of view, the dynamics of loans portfolio point to a more balanced structure of the portfolio of loans by currency and a higher contribution of loans to enterprises regarding portfolio expansion.

Chart 14 Lending to the private sector, CPS

Source: Bank of Albania.

34%

35%

36%

37%

38%

2014t4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Credit to the private sector

CPS yoy (% left)CPS/ GDP (right)

-2%

1%

4%

7%

2014t4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

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4Q

1Q

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3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

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4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Annual change (in %)

Foreign currencyLekCPS

0

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

The improvement of lending activity was supported by funding in domestic currency, which contributed by 4.8 percentage points to the annual growth of credit to the private sector in the fourth quarter. The contribution increase of loans in lek offset the lower contribution of loans in foreign currency, which slowed down the growth rates at year-end. The high growth rates of banks’ lending in lek, by 10.1%, are supported by low interest rates, by banks’ favourable policies for financing in lek as well as by higher awareness of public on the risk of the exposure of exchange rate in borrowing. This positive dynamic has led to a more balanced structure of the loan portfolio. Loans in lek accounted for 48.7% of loans to the private sector in December 2019, 10 percentage points higher than the weight of this credit five years ago.

13 Credit data are based on monetary statistics and are adjusted for the effect of written-off loans and exchange rate movements.

14 For more, click here https://www.bankofalbania.org/Monetary_Policy/Surveys_11282/Bank_Lending_Survey/.

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Chart 15 Lending to the private sector and annual contributions by purpose of use

Source: Bank of Albania.

-2%

1%

4%

7%

10%

2014M12

2015M03

2015M06

2015M09

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2016M03

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2018M03

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2019M12

Household credit (annual growth % )

Household-consumerHousehold- mortgage

Households

-2%

1%

4%

7%

10%

2014M12

2015M03

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2017M03

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2018M03

2018M06

2018M09

2018M12

2019M03

2019M06

2019M09

2019M12

Business credit (annual growth %)

Business-liquidityBusiness- investment

Business credit

The main contributor to this increase, during 2019, is the loan to enterprises, unlike the lending dynamics of the last three years. Loans to both households and enterprises improved in the last quarter of the year. The portfolio of loans to households increased by 7.5%, from 6.9% in the previous quarter. The expansion the growth pace of loans to households, in the last quarter, has benefited not only from the higher contribution of loans for house purchase, but also from consumer loans. The annual growth pace for each portfolio improved to 7% and 7.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, growth pace of loans to enterprises is slightly higher than in 2019 Q3, of 8% on average (7.8% in 2019 Q3). Unlike the previous quarter, it is noticed that the growth of loans to enterprises in the fourth quarter is determined by the expansion loans for investments. This portfolio grew by an average of 9.2% compared to the previous year, or about 4 percentage points higher than in the third quarter15. The improvement of lending to investments has offset the weaker performance of loans for liquidity, which slowed down its growth pace to 6.5% against 11.1% in the previous quarter.

3.4 moneY and dePosIts In tHe eConomY

Monetary supply in the last quarter of the year accelerated its growth pace. The broad money indicator, M3 aggregate, registered an annual growth of 4.3% on average during this period, 0.7 percentage point higher compared to the third quarter. The creation of money in the economy is supported by the financing of the private and public sector by the banking system. On the liabilities side of the banking system, the money structure continues to be affected by the shift of household savings to deposits with maturities of over two years, 15 The comparative basis with the year before has also contributed significantly to this improvement-

where loans to investments decreased significantly as a result of data verification by a bank of the system.

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which are not included in the calculation of M3. The aggregate in lek, M2, improved the growth rates to 3.5% on average over this period, against the 2.7% in the third quarter of the year. Expansion of the monetary supply was widely supported by the steady performance of loans in domestic currency and by government funding. Money supply M1, shows an acceleration of the annual growth rate at 9.6% or 1.2 percentage point higher compared to the previous quarter. This indicator has mainly taken the form of demand deposits, reflecting at the same time the increased demand of economic agents’ for cash, at the end of the year. Meanwhile, the ratio of the latter to aggregate in lek, M2, stands at relatively similar levels as in the previous quarter, around 38.3%.

Chart 16 Money Indicators

Source: Bank of Albania.

0

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-20

0

20

40

60

80

1002016M

12

2017M6

2017M12

2018M6

2018M12

2019M6

2019M12

Annual changes of �nancial instruments (in bln lek)

HH securitiestime deposits >2Ymonetary depositsCOBM3 (rhs)

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2016M12

2017M4

2017M8

2017M12

2018M4

2018M8

2018M12

2019M4

2019M8

2019M12

Annual changes of monetary aggregates (in %)

M1 M2 M3

-4.0%

-2.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

The growth pace of deposits in the banking system improved in the last quarter. Total deposits are estimated at around 70.4% as a ratio to GDP at the end of the year. Deposits’ stock recorded an average annual growth by 5.7% in the fourth quarter, compared to 4.7% a quarter earlier. This performance was mainly supported by the rapid expansion of deposits in foreign currency by about 6.5% in annual terms, compared to 5.7% a quarter earlier. The growth rates of deposits in lek improved to 4.9%, up by 1.3 percentage points from the third quarter. In terms of the time structure of deposits, the latter in the banking system continues to shift toward two maturities, mainly in the form of demand deposits, as well as time deposits with maturity above two year. As at the end of the period, demand deposits accounted for around 47% of the total stock, whereas those whose maturity term is longer than two years accounted for around 13.4% of the total stock.

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Chart 17 Deposits in the banking system

Source: Bank of Albania.

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2014M12

2015M6

2015M12

2016M6

2016M12

2017M6

2017M12

2018M6

2018M12

2019M6

2019M12

Annual changes of deposits

total depositslek depositsfx deposits

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2009Q4

2010Q4

2011Q4

2012Q4

2013Q4

2014Q4

2015Q4

2016Q4

2017Q4

2018Q4

2019Q4

deposits(<&> 2V)/PBB

Households’ deposits account for over 80% of the deposit stock in the banking system. About 60% of them are held in time instruments, reflecting their investment in a longer-term form of savings. On the other hand, enterprises hold over 90% of their deposits as liquid holdings (cash), depending on their seasonal activity and needs.

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Inflation averaged 1.3% in 2019 Q4, resulting 0.1 percentage point lower than in the previous quarter. The performance of inflation reflected the slow increase of wages and domestic production costs, the low inflation in our trading partners and the lagged effect of exchange rate appreciation during 2018. The positive rates of economic growth and employment have mitigated the negative output gap, but have not eliminated it, thus supporting the assessment that the demand-side inflationary pressures remain insufficient for the convergence of inflation to target.

Economic growth accelerated in 2019 Q3 reaching at 3.8%, underpinned by both domestic and external demand. In particular, the consumption of population provided a significant contribution followed by net exports.

The return of the economy to potential is expected to continue, but at a more mitigated pace, driven by the negative impacts expected from the earthquake of 26th November 2019. Given this factor, the low inflation environment and inflation expectations, headline inflation’s convergence to target may require a longer time. Meanwhile the return of inflation to target is expected to be supported by the stronger materialisation of the impacts from the rise of wages and costs in the economy.

4.1 InFlatIon

In 2019, the average inflation was 1.4%. Throughout the year inflation registered low levels, failing to respond adequately to the relatively positive developments of economic activity and domestic demand. Although the negative output gap continued to narrow down, the weak performance of import prices, the appreciating of the exchange rate and the presence of base effects have kept inflation values below those of the previous year.

The average inflation registered a low level in the last quarter of 2019 (1.3%). Inflation in this quarter was affected by the developments in December (1.1%). The seasonal impact of inflationary effect from the category “Unprocessed food” had a lower intensity than in the previous years16. The other categories continue to have a low impact on headline inflation, as in most of the year.

16 Monthly inflation of the category “Unprocessed food” in December resulted at 5.0% against 6.2% in the previous year.

4. InFlatIon and eConomIC GroWtH

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The slow increase of prices in the last quarter has continued to be affected by the contained pressures generated by the domestic economy. Commodity prices in foreign markets, as well as inflation in EU and regional countries returned to increasing values at the end of 2019. Nevertheless, the relatively long period of appreciation of the domestic currency has kept the pressures from import prices low.

Chart 18 Headline in�ation, target (left). In�ation in regional and EU countries (right)

Source: INSTAT, Trading Economics database and calculations of the Bank of Albania.

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

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2015Q1

2015Q2

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2018Q1

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2018Q3

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2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

Albania Regional Coutries EU

0.0%

0.5%

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1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

201

2M1

22

013M

04

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3M0

82

013M

12

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014M

08

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82

019M

12

Y/Y Headline in�ationAverage headline in�ation

Target

The structure shows that the volatility of food prices accounted for 85% of this quarter’s inflation. The contribution of prices in the category “unprocessed food” continues to be significant within this group of goods, accounting for around 60% of headline inflation. In the first two months of the quarter this category registered an increase in terms of inflation and contributions. Meanwhile, in December, the value of the contribution of particular sub-items within this category was dominated by “vegetables” which drove to the decrease of contribution by 0.3 percentage point17. Favourable climatic conditions, the increase of greenhouse output, weak pressures from production costs due to lower fuel prices and the increase of competition in agricultural produce markets are factors that have driven the slowdown of inflation in the respective category.

In the category “Processed food” the result of slight fluctuations of the prices of groups composing it was almost the same as in the previous quarter (0.3 percentage point). Within this category, prices of the sub-category “bread and cereals” have increased, while the contribution of the sub-category “tobacco” has resulted downwards in December.

17 In December the contribution of this category decreased from 0.9 to 0.6 percentage point, driving the decline of headline inflation rate as well.

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The “non-food consumer goods” contributed with low positive values to this quarter’s inflation, a lower contribution compared with the previous quarter. This performance has reflected inflation and the negative contribution of fuel due to: the downwards trend of oil prices in foreign markets by the end of the year; the appreciation of the domestic currency; and the impact of the high comparative base of the previous year.

Table 2 Contribution of key items to annual inflation (p.p.)*Q1‘17

Q2 ‘17

Q3‘17

Q4‘17

Q1‘18

Q2‘18

Q3‘18

Q4‘18

Q1‘19

Q2‘19

Q3‘19

Q4‘19

Processed food 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3

Bread and cereals 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1

Milk, cheese and eggs 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2

Unprocessed foods 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.8

Fruits 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4

Vegetables 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.4

Services 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

Goods at regulated prices 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Water supply 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Housing rent 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0

Non-food consumer goods 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0

Fuel 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1

Durable consumer goods 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

Consumer Price Index (annual change, %) 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3

Source: INSTAT. *The table shows some of the main groups of items.

The prices of other more stable components of inflation, which includes the prices of services, housing and durable consumer goods also, had a lower contribution to the inflation rate compared with the previous quarter (0.2 from 0.3 percentage point). The category “housing-rent” registered a stronger base impact compared with the previous quarter, decreasing its contribution by 0.1 percentage point. The category “services” has contributed slightly to headline inflation, as in the previous quarter. Durable consumer goods have continued to contribute positively to headline inflation; however this impact has been almost negligible as well (0.1 p.p.).

Chart 19 Contribution by food and non-food categories to annual headline ination

Source: INSTAT and Bank of Albania calculations.

-1

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3

13_Q04

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Contribution of food inationContribution of non-food inationTotal

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Annual change in the index of “Goods and services at regulated prices” over this year reached a low level due to the diminishing impact from the increase of water price rise in the previous year (-0.2 percentage point). This behaviour was noted during this quarter as well, where the relevant category maintained its low, almost negligible, annual contribution to headline inflation.

4.2 Gross domestIC ProduCt and aGGreGate demand

In 2019 Q3, economic growth resulted at 3.8%, faster than the 2.5% growth in the first half of the year. The expansion of the economic activity continued to be determined largely by the services sector, mainly with increased contribution from tourism and continued trade support. Also, the decline of the downward impact of low electricity output and the increase of the value added in industry were reflected in positive contributions for economic growth. Meanwhile, construction activity continued to show a slight downward dynamic similar with the previous quarter.

The increase of aggregate demand in 2019 Q3 continued to be largely driven by domestic demand, with private consumption being the main contributor. Net exports, supported mainly by services exports, also had a positive impact. Public consumption contributed slightly upwards, while the impact of investments, albeit to a small extent, remained negative.

The update of macroeconomic developments with data obtained by indirect and qualitative indicators, given the materialisation of the negative impacts from the earthquake of 26th November 2019, suggests a more moderated economic growth in 2019 Q4.

4.2.1 Gross domestIC ProduCt BY seCtor18

In 2019 Q3, the economic growth is mainly attributed to the services sector, by around 66%, whose contribution is calculated at 2.5 percentage points. The production sector also improved its performance and contributed as well to the acceleration of economic growth. The value added of the production sector increased by 1.9% and its contribution to economic growth resulted at 0.7 percentage point. The improved dynamic of production mainly reflected the diminishing downward impact of electricity. After negative contribution, averaging 1.3 percentage points during 2019 H1, the impact of energy in economic growth resulted negligible, during 2019 Q3.

18 Gross Domestic Product and Gross Value Added by sector are treated in terms of real annual changes. The analysis relies on the latest GDP data from output method for 2019 Q3, published by INSTAT on 24 December 2019. The differences between the sectors’ growth rates of this publication and those analysed in the Monetary Policy Report 2019/IV are the result of the series’ review.

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Chart 20 Gross domestic product by output and condence indicators

Source: INSTAT and Bank of Albania. *Semi-nal data. ** A preliminary estimate.

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

12341234123412341234123412341234123

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17* '18**'19**

Contributions of economic activities in yoy real GDP

Agriculture, forestry and shingIndustry, energy and waterConstructionServicesNet taxes

-30

-15

0

15

30

123412341234123412341234123412341234

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

Diference from long term average

Industry condence indicatorConstruction condence indicatorServices condence indicatorTrade condence indicator

Mining and quarrying and the manufacturing industry continued to support the annual growth of GDP as well, by 0.4 and 0.2 percentage point, respectively. The value added in agriculture, forestry and fishing decelerated, contributing to the annual growth of GDP by only 0.1 percentage point. Meanwhile construction, largely affected by the incoming completion phase of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project, contributed negatively by 0.1 percentage point, as in the previous quarter. The net tax component provided a contribution of around 0.6 percentage point to economic growth, from 0.5 percentage point in the previous quarter.

the industry, energy and water supply sector improved its performance in 2019 Q3, registering a growth of value added by 5.8%. After the contraction in 2019 H1, the dynamic of the sector reflected mainly the diminishing of the negative impact of the low electricity19 output, and to a lesser extent the expansion of mining and quarrying industry20. The mining and quarrying branch, with a contribution of 3.2 percentage points, formed around 54.9% of the annual growth of the sector. Manufacturing industry supported as well the performance of the sector by 2.0 percentage points, albeit at a slower growth of value added at 3.6%, compared with 5.4% in the previous quarter. The slower growth performance of manufacturing industry is attributed mainly to the

19 The slowdown of the negative dynamic showed by the branch of “Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning” is also confirmed by the net volume sales, which increased by 3.3% after a contraction of 12.6% in the previous quarter. Net domestic output of electricity during 2019 Q3, continued to be lower than the same period in the previous year by 27.3%, a rate that was lower than the strong contraction in 2019 H1. This dynamic continues to bear the impact of a higher comparative base with the previous year, where for the first three quarters of 2018 the net domestic output volume of electricity expanded on average by 120.1% in annual terms.

20 Increase in value of exports of the group “Salt, sulphurs, oxides, lime and cement” and the increase in volume of exports of the group “Mineral fuel, mineral oil and their distillation products” related with the mining and quarrying industry are assessed to have affected positively the performance of this branch of industry.

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downward impact of textile, clothing, leather and footwear output as well as to metal products manufacturing, which is also evidenced by the contraction of the exports of products related with them. Meanwhile, other activities included in manufacturing industry contributed positively to the performance of the branch.

Chart 21 Contribution of branches to value added in “Industry, energy and water”, and the capacity utilisation rate in industry

Source: INSTAT and Bank of Albania. *Semi-�nal data. ** A preliminary estimate.

-320

-240

-160

-80

0

80

160

240

320

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

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40

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3

'13 '14 '15 '16 '17* '18** '19**

Annual changes (%) and contributions (percentage points)

Mining and quarring, electricity, water, supply and sewerageManufacturing industryIndustry, energy and water supplyElectricity production (net domestic, annual changes in %, rhs.)

60

64

68

72

76

80

123412341234123412341234123412341234'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

%

Capacity utilisation rate

Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q

The growth of industry, energy and water supply sector is assessed to continue in 2019 Q4, albeit at a slower pace. The higher utilisation of production capacities, the confidence level above the historical average and the declining impact from the high comparative base of the previous year, suggest for a continuation of the positive dynamic of the sector. However, the quarterly fall of confidence and of some groups of product exports related with industrial activities give mitigating signals of the upward trend of the sector for 2019 Q4.

Chart 22 Valued added and capacity utilisation rate in construction

Source: INSTAT and Bank of Albania.

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

1234123412341234123412341234123412341234

'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

Value added in construction (annual changes in %, in real terms)Capacity utilisation rate (rhs., in %)

-60

-45

-30

-15

0

0

40

80

120

160

412341234123412341234123412341234123412341234

'08'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

Issued building permits (moving sum, 4 terms, index 2008 = 100)Order books (balance from the business survey, moving average with 4 terms, rhs.).)

Quarterly Quarterly

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The construction sector continued to decline in 2019 Q3. As in the previous quarter, the negative developments in the construction sector are closely related to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project entering its final stage. The annual decline of value added in construction, affected largely by the high comparative base with the previous year21, resulted around 1.1%, comparable with the decrease of 1.6% in the previous quarter. The contraction of the output volume in construction is assessed to have been driven by the lower level realised in new constructions and reconstructions22. Meanwhile, the engineering category registered an increase, affecting positively the performance of the sector, in line with the assessed contribution of the public component. The increase of foreign direct investments inflows as well, albeit at a slower pace than in 2019 Q2, is assessed to have supported the sector’s upward performance.

The performance of the construction sector is expected to improve slightly in 2019 Q4. The increase of the capacity utilisation rate and the higher number of construction permits granted during the first three quarter of 201923 suggest for a relatively better performance of the construction sector in 2019 Q4. However, the decline of the confidence indicator, the downward impact of the completion of most of the TAP project implementation, and the assessed negative impact by the public component, remain restricting factors for the expected improvement of the sector.

The services sector registered a faster upward dynamics in 2019 Q3. The value added of the sector expanded by 5.0%, after the annual growth of 4.3% in the previous quarter. The branch “Trade, transport, accommodation and food service” continued to generate the main upward impact, contributing by 2.5 percentage points in the performance of the services sector. Developments in it reflected largely the contribution of activities related with accommodation and food service24, while trade activity continued to support the performance of the sector to the same extent as in the previous quarter. The branches “Professional activities and administrative services”25 and “Public administration, education

21 In 2018 Q3, value added in construction registered also the highest annual growth of the year, around 6.5%.

22 These two categories are also affected by the higher comparative base with the previous year, when they also registered a strong expansion of the respective output volume.

23 The number of construction permits granted in total for new buildings in 2019 Q3 was 293, from 310 permits granted in 2019 Q2. In total, the number of building permits granted in the first three quarters of 2019 remains higher than in the previous year, and mainly for residential buildings. The projected value of construction permits for new residential buildings also increased compared to the previous year.

24 According to the volume of net sales index the branch “Hotels” registered a rapid upward performance in 2019 Q3 by 22.5% from 7.0% in the previous quarter. The volume of net sales generated by the activity of “Bar - restaurants” also continued to increase by 5.4% from 4.1% in the previous quarter. The number of foreign nationals also increased during 2019 Q3, albeit at a slower pace compared with the previous quarter (by 5.8% from 16.0%). The main impact by purpose of travel continues to be attributed to the increase of the number of individuals travelling for personal purposes in the category “Vacation, visit to relatives, etc.”

25 The improvement of the performance of value added of Professional activities and administrative services is attributed mainly to the increase of the volume of net sale of architectural and engineering activities, after two consecutive quarters of contraction.

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and healthcare”26 increased their positive impact on the growth of the services sector as well, contributing by 1.3 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively.

Meanwhile, services related to “Real estate” and “Financial and insurance activities” supported the performance of the sector by 0.6 percentage point each, slightly lower than the previous quarter. The impact of the branch “Information and communication” on the sector also weakened compared with the previous quarter, reflecting an almost negligible contribution in the annual performance of services. The branch “Art, entertainment, recreation and other services’ activities” continued its downward impact by 1.3 percentage points, mainly reflecting the closure of gambling activity.

Chart 23 Contribution of branches and capacity utilization rates in the services sector

Source: INSTAT and Bank of Albania. *Semi-�nal data. ** A preliminary estimate.

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12341234123412341234123412341234123'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17* '18**'19**

Annual changes (%) and contributions (in percentage points)

Arts, entertainment and recreation services

Public administration, education and health

Professional and administrative services

Real estate activity

Financial and insurance services

Information and communication

Trade, transport, accomodation and food services

Services value added

64

68

72

76

80

84

88

23412341234123412341234123412341234'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

%, capacity utilisation rate

TradeServices excluding trade

Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q QQQQ

The upward dynamic of the services sector is assessed slower in 2019 Q4. This expected performance of services is in line with the fall in both confidence and the capacity utilisation rate of the sector.

4.2.2 aGGreGate demand

Economic growth is supported by both domestic and foreign demand in 2019 Q3. The increase of domestic demand is driven by the acceleration of consumption, while the positive contribution from foreign demand is related with the rapid growth of services’ exports. On the other hand, “investments” generated negative contributions. Data from indirect indicators signal that economic growth in 2019 Q4 is expected to be slower. The domestic demand, with main impacts from population consumption, will determine this growth. Also, investments are expected to provide positive contributions. 

26 Regarding the budget expenditure data by functional classification, the main upward impact in this branch is related to healthcare expenditure.

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Domestic demand expanded by 2.5% in annual terms in 2019 Q3, a higher rate compared with 2019 H1 (2.3%). The annual dynamic was defined by population consumption, with positive contributions from public consumption as well. On the other hand, investments decreased compared with the previous year.

Leading and indirect indicators suggest domestic demand will continue to grow in 2019 Q4, but at a slower pace. Private consumption is expected to deliver the main impact, followed by investments.

Chart 24 Economic sentiment indicator and structure of domestic demand

Source: INSTAT and Bank of Albania.

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Gross �xed capital formationPublic consumtionPrivat consumptionDomestic demand, yoy

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Economic sentiment indicator (lhs)Domestic demand, yoy (rhs)

in % Contribution in p.p.domestic demand growth l - t average = 100

private consumption

Private consumption increased by 3.9% in 2019 Q3, around 1.2 percentage points higher than during 2019 H1. This component provided the main contribution to the expansion of domestic demand and in the economic growth of 2019 Q3. The increase of private consumption was affected by the increase of expenditures in the services sector (based on value added data from output). The contribution of the two other components of private consumption, short-term and durable consumer goods, is assessed to have remained unchanged compared with 2019 Q2, based on indirect data from retail trade index.

In terms of factors that support the growth of private consumption, both the performance of income from employment, and the increase of the number of employed, have driven consumer spending. This is reflected in an improvement of the economic sentiment indicator in 2019 Q3. Also, consumer and services sector confidence indicators remained above their historical averages over 2019 Q3 as well. The increase of remittances’ inflow in Albania continued to support private consumption funding during 2019 Q3. Financial conditions also continued to drive the acceleration of consumption and its contribution to the expansion of aggregate demand.

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Chart 25 Private consumption and consumer con�dence

Source: INSTAT and Bank of Albania.

-4-3-2-10123456

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Privat consumption

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annual changes

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Consumers con�dence, ma (lhs)

Services con�dence indicator (rhs)

Diff froml - t average

Available partial data for 2019 Q4 suggest a continuation of the increase of households’ consumption for short-term consumer goods and services. This assessment is based on quantitative data on the performance of food imports, movements of citizens in Albania and the increase of consumer credit. The performance of household expenditures for durable goods, a component that is even more sensible to the confidence environment, is harder to evaluate for the last quarter of the year, based on the available partial data27.

Chart 26 Indirect indicators on the performance of private consumption*

*) Quantitative data for 2019 Q4 are approximated from October and November data.Source: INSTAT and Bank of Albania.

-6-4-202468

10121416

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Credit to householdsImports of food

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in p

.p.

in %

Index of home appliances and furnishings, yoy (lhs)Major purchaces, CCS, ma (rhs)

annual changes, in %

27 The decline of confidence may have an impact particularly on the consumption of durable good purchases, which has an elastic demand that may be delayed over time while households wait that the situation is clearer.

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investments

In 2019 Q3, investments deepened the annual fall, 1.9%, with a negative contribution to economic growth of -0.428 percentage point. Indirect assessments show that private investments determined the downward dynamic of investments. The latter, based on indirect data from 2019 Q329, was affected by both investments in construction and investments in machinery and equipment.

The factors affecting private investments remained supportive during 2019 Q3 as well, but their decrease has reflected the continuation of the shock from the final stage of the investment in the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project. Meanwhile, the positive impact factor for private investments are: increase of the capacity utilisation rate in the production sector; acceleration of consumer demand for goods and services; continuation of the impact of eased financial conditions. The growth of foreign investments also resulted in positive territory serving as funding source for new investments.

Indirect assessments indicate that the contribution from public investments was low, but positive during 2019 Q2 and Q3.

Indirect indicators suggest an improvement of investment dynamic in 2019 Q4, supported by private investments. The component of public investments is assessed to give a negative contribution in the last quarter of the year.

Chart 28 Short-term quantitative and qualitative indicators from investment surveys

Source: INSTAT and Bank of Albania.

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Businesse �nancinal situation, BCS, diff from aveCredit for investments, yoy

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Imports of capital goods (lhs)

Public investments (rhs)

28 The contribution of investments to the economic growth is an assessment of the Bank of Albania.29 INSTAT does not publish Investments in economy with quarterly frequency by type and sector.

Over 2019 Q3 imports of capital goods decreased by 3.8 % and value added in the construction sector contracted by 1.1%.

Chart 27 Gross �xed capital formation

Source: INSTAT.

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Gross �xed capital formation4Q mov.avg.

annual changes, in %

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public sector demand and fiscal policy30

Fiscal policy has shown consolidating features for most 2019, illustrated by the positive values of primary balance. However, the weakening of the intensity of fiscal consolidation, particularly in October-November of this year, has increased the positive impact of fiscal policy on aggregate demand growth.

Fiscal impulse, which proxies the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth, by the end of 11-month period was estimated at around 0.9 percentage point of GDP, from 0.2 percentage point at the end of September.

Chart 29 Orientation of �scal policy*

* The orientation of �scal policy is proxied by changes in the ratio of primary cumulative de�cit for a 12-month period to the GDP, compared to a year earlier. Negative changes, i.e. the values of this indicator under zero show that the �scal position has improved, which indirectly indicates negative

values of �scal impulse in the economy. Burimi: Ministria e Financave dhe Ekonomisë, INSTAT, dhe llogaritje të sta�t të Bankës së Shqipërisë.

-1.5

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Fiscal stance

-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.0

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Overall de�cit/GDP

Budget deficit was around ALL 10.6 billion, at the end of the 11-month period, estimated at around 0.6% of GDP, higher by 0.4 percentage point from the end of 9-month. Primary balance continues to be positive, at around 1.4% of GDP.

Budget expenditures, in October and November, increased by around 2.1% in annual terms, at a slower pace than the average 6.4% registered for the first three quarters of the year. The slowdown in the growth pace of expenditures, in these two months, was defined by lower expenses for domestic and foreign debt interests. The performance of interest payments on foreign debt is related this the cycle of interest payments on Eurobonds issued in global markets. On the other hand, the decline of expenditures for domestic debt interests is due to the continuous decrease of the interest rates of government securities issued in the domestic market.

30 The analysis on fiscal indicators is based on data published as of 23 January 2020, including the more recent reporting for 11-month 2019 period. As such, they still do not reflect potential impacts due to the earthquake of 26th November 2019.

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Capital expenditures registered an annual contraction by around 2.4% in October and November as well, albeit at a slower pace than the average registered in the other three quarters of the year. The contraction impact (0.4 percentage point) of this category on total expenditure, during these two months, was compensated by the 2.7 percentage points positive contribution of current expenditures. From the current expenditure components, expenses for special funds and those for local government continued to drive growth in this quarter as well, thus keeping the profile of total expenditure growth almost similar to the previous quarter.

The performance of the budget expenditure items suggests that the fiscal sector will continue to support aggregate demand growth in the fourth quarter, mainly in the form of an additional impulse from public consumption.

Chart 30 Budget expenditures

Source: Ministry of Finance and Economy.

-15.0

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Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4*

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Current exp.Capital exp.Other exp.Expenditures annual change

Expenditures growth decomposition

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Central govn.current exp.Central govn. capital exp. (rhs)Local govn. exp. (rhs)

Annual change, in %

For the first 11 months of 2019, expenditures were around ALL 431.6 billion, or 5.6% higher in nominal annual terms. Current expenditures, for the same period, expanded by 7.2%, while capital expenditures contracted by around 3.7%, compared with the previous year.

Revenues in October and November contracted by around 1.3% in annual terms, unlike the behaviour shown in the first three quarters of the year. Revenues from VAT, grants, local taxation and tax on earnings, over the last two months, had a negative impact on revenues performance. The VAT revenue item has shown a dynamic almost similar to the first three quarters, registering a decline of around 5.9% in annual terms, in October and November. Adjusted for the impact of reimbursements this decline results somewhat more mitigated, at around 4.3%.

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Chart 31 Performance of budget revenues

Source: Ministry of Finance and Economy.

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Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4*

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Grants+Non-tax revenuesTax revenues, excl.VATVATRevenues, annual change

Revenues growth decomposition

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Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4*

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VATPro�t taxPIT

Annual change in %

Regarding the 11-month period, revenues amounted to around ALL 421.1 billion, or 3.2% higher than in the previous year. The increase of the total, during 2019, is supported mainly by tax revenues on personal income, which accounted for around 72% of the growth of total revenues, despite the modest share of 11% that this component has on total revenues. VAT, which is the item with the largest share in revenues (30%), has declined throughout 2019. The annual contraction at the end of 11-month was 4.7%. Lower revenues from VAT, compared with the previous year, are due to the combination of several

factors31.

external demand and foreign trade

Real trade deficit in goods and services contracted by 19.1% in 2019 Q3. This performance is in contrast with 2019 H1, where the deficit expanded by 9.6%. The main driver of this development has been the rapid increase of export of services (by around 13.0%). On the other hand, export of goods continued to be characterized by a decline in annual terms (2.4%). For the same quarter, imports expanded by 3.6%, driven mainly by the annual increase in export of goods (3.6%). Imports of services were also characterized by an increase (3.6%).

31 First, during 2019 the amount of VAT reimbursed has been higher than in the previous year. Adjusted for this impact the contraction of VAT for the 11-month would be 1.2%. Second, for 2019 were envisioned some relieve in the form of exemptions or reductions of VAT, supported by specific sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, agro-tourism and pharmaceuticals. The impact of these impacts of these measures is hard to assess. However, the curbing impact that this year’s fiscal relieves may have provided are in line with the dynamic of VAT collected on the output of goods and services in Albania. At the end of the 11-month period, domestic VAT made a negative contribution of 5.2 percentage points to the contraction of total VAT of 4.7%.

Chart 32 Contribution of net exports to aggregate demand (in p.p.)

Source: INSTAT and Bank of Albania.

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Data on the performance of external trade of goods, in 2019 Q4, show a slight narrowing of the trade deficit in annual terms (around 1.5%). Both exports and imports have contracted compared with the previous year, but the effect of imports has been higher.

Chart 33 Import and export by category (in ALL million)

Source: INSTAT

020000400006000080000

100000120000140000

Others

Exports

201720182019

0

50000

100000

150000

Imports

201720182019

Food,beverages

andtobacco Minerals,

oil andelectricalenergy

Chemicaland plasticproducts

Leatherand related

products

Wood andpaper

products

Textilesand shoes

Construction materialsand metals

Machineryand parts

Others

Food,beverages

andtobacco Minerals,

oil andelectricalenergy

Chemicaland plasticproducts

Leatherand related

products

Wood andpaper

products

Textilesand shoes

Construction materialsand metals

Machineryand parts

The exports of goods in value declined by about 6.7% in annual level during 2019 Q4, a faster rate compared with the previous quarter (0.9%). Categories “Textile and footwear” and “Construction materials and metals” have generated the main impacts on this dynamic. The unfavourable external demand situation, the declining deflators32 and the relatively high comparative base of the previous year, were factors that have affected negatively the performance of exports, particularly in October. Electricity trade continued to remain a significant factor33 in the dynamic of exports, but with lower impacts compared with the previous quarters.

Chart 34 Annual Dated Brent oil prices, domestic oil export (left), metal prices index and domestic metal export (right)

Source: INSTAT, IMF, EIA, London Metal Exchange, Marketindex, Cameco.

-100

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Metals' exports (value)Metals' price index

32 Due to international prices as well as the performance of the exchange rate.33 Particularly in October, affecting the performance of 2019 Q4.

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Imports of goods decreased by 3.8% during 2019 Q4. The downward import performance has been defined by the categories “Construction materials and metals” and “Minerals, fuel, electricity”. Overall, the dynamic of the other categories as well has been negative or quite sluggish.

By geography, the countries of the European Union, and particularly Italy, remain our main trading partners for both exports and imports. Over 2019 Q4, the relative share of Italy declined due to the poor performance of “Textile and footwear” exports.

Box 3 Balance of payMenTs developMenTs in 2019 Q3

net current account position recorded a deficit of eur 161.2 million in 2019 Q3, expanding by around 10.1%, annually. it stood at 4.6% of nominal Gdp, around 0.1 percentage point higher than the same quarter a year earlier. a key driver in this dynamic was the expansion of the trade deficit in goods. This performance was determined by the growth of imports by around 7.6%. in the case of exports of goods, a significant decline of around 3.9% in annual terms has been verified, a rate that is more mitigated compared with 2019 Q2. regarding services, the positive surplus expanded in annual terms mainly due to the increase in exports (by around 11.3%). The performance was mainly driven by the rapid increase of “travel services” exports. in parallel, it was observed an increase of import of services as well (by around 7.6%), also driven by travel services.

The “primary income” account was characterized by a negative surplus, up around eur 22.9 million from the previous year. This was due to the increase in income outflows related to “direct investments”. regarding the secondary income, a positive surplus of 10.9 % was recorded in annual terms. in this regard, net remittances grew annually by 8.6%. The financial account was characterized by an annual contraction of net liabilities by 8.8%. direct investments net flows contracted by around 1.9%, while only the liabilities of direct investments expanded by 1.4% in annual terms. The balance of payments was characterized by an increase in reserve assets by around eur 109.7 million in 2019 Q3. The reserve is sufficient to cover 6.7 months of imports of goods and services or 160% of short-term external debt.

The balance of payments reports an inflow of “errors and omissions” at eur 126.0 million.

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Table 3 Balance of Payments indicators.

  2018 Q1

2018 Q2

2018 Q3

2018 Q4

2019 Q1

2019 Q2

2019 Q3

Current account (in eur million) -178.4 -169.4 -146.4 -372.2 -245.2 -280.4 -161.2 Y-o-y (%) 13.3 -33.8 2.5 20.1 37.4 65.5 10.1 /GDP (%) -6.3 -5.0 -4.5 -11.0 -8.0 -7.8 -4.6Goods and services -358.3 -427.2 -359.7 -614.8 -403.7 -518.9 -376.8 Y-o-y (%) 14.9 -12.2 -3.8 7.8 12.7 21.5 4.8Exports, f.o.b. 841.8 1024.0 1240.4 952.8 885.2 1058.2 1345.0 Y-o-y (%) 8.8 14.5 11.7 8.8 5.2 3.3 8.4Imports, f.o.b. 1200.1 1451.2 1600.1 1567.6 1288.9 1577.1 1721.8 Y-o-y (%) 10.6 5.1 7.8 8.4 7.4 8.7 7.6Net Travel 77.6 83.5 197.1 72.1 75.9 81.5 254.9Primary income -22.8 19.8 -17.1 6.3 -32.7 -10.0 -39.9Credit 70.3 123.6 94.0 105.0 78.7 132.5 108.7Debit 93.1 103.8 111.0 98.7 111.4 142.5 148.6Net income from Direct Investments -69.4 -81.2 -83.9 -48.1 -74.6 -111.2 -110.2secondary income 202.7 238.0 230.4 236.4 191.2 248.6 255.6Credit 224.5 260.9 254.8 265.2 220.1 274.2 280.8Debit 21.7 22.9 24.4 28.8 28.9 25.6 25.2Net Remittances 148.6 181.7 170.0 169.2 150.2 185.2 184.6 Y-o-y (%) 10.0 11.7 2.6 -1.7 1.0 1.9 8.6Capital account 18.3 21.2 22.9 41.6 17.9 12.3 19.7net borrowing/net lending -160.1 -148.2 -123.5 -330.6 -227.3 -268.0 -141.5Financial account -285.2 -198.0 -16.9 -271.0 -371.1 -353.2 -15.4 Y-o-y (%) -3.6 -4.1 -92.4 32.0 30.1 78.4 -8.8 /GDP (%) -10.1 -5.9 -0.5 -8.0 -12.1 -9.8 -0.4direct investments -290.3 -218.2 -268.7 -244.9 -287.2 -227.5 -263.6 Y-o-y (%) 40.6 -3.4 -21.0 10.7 -1.1 4.3 -1.9Portfolio investments 5.5 108.3 13.1 -203.0 -0.2 -82.4 90.8Financial derivatives 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0other investments 142.0 -173.3 83.9 -96.9 -12.9 0.4 47.6reserve assets -142.4 85.1 154.8 273.9 -70.7 -43.6 109.7errors and omissions -125.1 -49.8 106.5 59.7 -143.8 -85.1 126.0

Source: Bank of Albania, INSTAT and staff’s estimates.

4.3 CYClICal sItuatIon oF tHe eConomY and InFlatIonarY Pressures

The indirect indicators of the cyclical situation, the unemployment rate and capacity utilisation rate gap show a gradual shift towards equilibrium. However, domestic inflationary pressures sourced by rising wages and production costs remain still insufficient to generate the return of inflation to target. This has been reflected also on the performance of core inflation during 2019 Q4. In parallel, the appreciation of the exchange rate during previous quarters and the slow growth of inflation in partner countries have generated a slow increase of imported inflation.

In the medium-term, the continued upward trend of the economy and of the capacity utilisation rate, as well as higher stability of the exchange rate, are expected to bring about faster economic growth and a more stable price base.

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The improvement of the cyclical position of the economy is estimated to have continued in 2019 Q3 as well. The utilisation rate of output factors has increased, but the economy is still below potential. As a result, inflationary pressures from the real economy are still insufficient for inflation to converge to target.

The capacity utilisation rate in economy stood at around 74.0% in 2019 Q4, a level similar to the rate in the previous quarter. However, the indicator remains 2.1 percentage points higher than in the same period in the previous year, and 0.4 percentage point higher than the historical average.

Developments in labour market resulted positive during 2019 Q3 as well. Employment in the economy increased by 3.3% in annual terms, a comparable rate to the 3.4% registered in the previous quarter.34 The upward dynamic of employment continued to be attributed mainly to the activities in the services sector and to lesser extent to industrial activity. This increase continued to affect the further growth of employment and the decline of the unemployment rate. This indicator declined at 11.4% in 2019 Q3, down by 0.8 percentage point compared with the same period in the previous year, and registering the lowest historical level.

The gross monthly average salary per employee35 registered an annual increase of 3.7% in 2019 Q3, continuing the upward trend of 2019 H1.36 In real terms, the monthly average wage increased by 2.3%, from 3.1% in the previous quarter. The slower performance of the average wage has reflected the

more mitigated growth of the average wage in the private sector, at 2.6% in nominal terms, or 1.2% in real terms. Meanwhile, the average wage in the public sector continued to accelerate the annual growth rate, at 5.6% in nominal terms and 4.2% in real terms.34 The analysis of employment and unemployment is based on the “Quarterly Labour Force Survey”

(QLFS), and refers to indicators for those 15 years and older. Participation in the labour force represents the group 15 - 64 years old, to prevent the impact from retired persons (according to the explanatory note of INSTAT in the QLFS for 2019 Q3).

35 This indicator refers to the gross monthly average wage received by an employee and is based on the payroll information declared at the General Directorate of Taxation. This wage consists of the base salary, additions to the salary for management positions, additions for years of work, additions for work hardships, and other additions related to titles, degrees and bonuses. It includes all the economic activities, both in the public and the private sectors, for all paid employees working in Albania, including foreign residents.

36 The performance of wages during the year was affected by the increase of the minimum wage and the increase of wages for various categories of the public sector. The monthly minimum wage for employees nationwide increased from ALL 24.000 to ALL 26.000 in 2019 Q1, or by 8.3% in annual terms.

Chart 35 Indicators of the cyclical situation of the economy*

*The output gap is the average of several measurements on which the method of moving average is applied. The capacity utilisation rate gap is

estimated as a deviation of the current value from the relevant historical average, and then the moving average method is applied. The unemploy-

ment rate gap is assessed as an average of unemployment gaps according to three methods, which assess the equilibrium or structural level of

unemployment (NAIRU or NAWRU). The unemployment rate gap is stated as the difference of the equilibrium unemployment rate to the actual unemploy-

ment rate and then the moving average method is applied.Source: INSTAT and estimations of the Bank of Albania.

-4-3-2-1012345

12341234123412341234123412341234123412341234'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19

Core in�ation (in %)Output gap (in % of potention GDP)Unemployment rate gap (in p.p.)Capacity utilisation rate in the production sector (in p.p.)

Chart 36 Participation in labour force, employment level and unemployment level in

economy

Source: INSTAT.

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1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3

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Employment rate (in %)Labour force participation rate (in %)Unemployment rate (in %, rhs.)

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53 Bank of Albania

The unit labour Cost37 followed an upward trend in 2019 Q3, up by 1.5% in annual terms from 1.2% increase in Q1. The performance of this indicator continues to be largely determined by the relatively rapid growth of real wage versus labour productivity for the activities covered by the respective statistics.38

Chart 37 Average wage indicators (left) and annual �attened average changes of labour cost and their breakdown (right)

Source: INSTAT and estimations of the Bank of Albania.

-8

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17

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q32016 2017 2018 2019

annual changes, in %

Minimum wageAverage monthly wage per employee in public sectorAverage monthly wage per employee in the economyAverage monthly wage per employee in the private sectorat

-20

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123412341234123412341234123412341232011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019

Average wage impact (in p.p.)Labour productivity impact (in p.p.)Unit labour costs (annual changes, in %)

Meanwhile, other production costs showed a downward dynamic in 2019 Q3. The prices of industrial output registered an annual decline of 1.6% affected mainly by export output prices. These developments are attributed largely to the contraction of prices in the mining and quarrying branch. Meanwhile, industrial output prices for products in the domestic market decreased by 0.4% in 2019 Q3 while production costs in the construction sector39 were almost the same as in the previous year.

The gradual narrowing of the negative production gap and the more contained appreciation of the exchange rate affected the upward trajectory of core inflation during 2019 H2. This indicator registered 0.9% in this period, compared with the average of 0.6% in 2019 H1.

However, on a longer time horizon, long-term and domestic inflation fluctuated around low levels in 2019. In average annual terms, core inflation and net non-tradable inflation resulted 0.7% and 1%, respectively. They stood 0.1 and 0.4 percentage point lower than the respective averages in the previous year. This development reflected partially the impact of the comparative base due to

37 Proxy indicators of labour productivity and unit labour costs and average wage by short-term statistics are calculated by the Bank of Albania using the total series of Short-Term Statistics (SHTS, INSTAT, 2019 Q3). Their calculation includes: the index of paid employees, the net sales volume and total wage fund for the total of activities covered by the survey of SHTS. The reported growth rates are in real terms and refer to the four-terms moving average of the annual changes of the indicator.

38 For activities covered by the Short-term Statistics, see the respective methodology (INSTAT).39 Construction cost index for apartments includes prices of building materials, labour force and

other capital expenditures used for the construction of a typical building of 8-10 floors.

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the increase of inflation in the category of housing during 2018 and partially the more complete transmission on costs of the exchange rate appreciation.

In addition to the developments of the above components, inflation performance during 2019 Q4 was affected also by the performance of short-term components. Non-core inflation stood at 2.4%, slightly lower than in the previous quarter while basket tradable inflation was around 2%. This value reflects the particularly low inflation of non-processed food during December.

Chart 38 Long-term in�ation expectations (left) and short-term expectations (right)

Source: INSTAT and estimations of the Bank of Albania.

-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5

10.511.512.5

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Non-core In�ationIn�ation of Tradables

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Core In�ationIn�ation of Net-Nontradables

In the first two months of 2019 Q4, the imported inflationary pressure index (IIPI)40 contracted on average by 0.5% in annual terms. Import prices and the exchange rate dynamics continued in opposite directions. The appreciation of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) in annual terms registered 1.6%, while the expansion of “Import Price Index” (IPI)41 expanded by around 1.1%.

40 It is a proxy on imported inflationary pressures, which aggregates in one single indicator the information from import price indices (IPI), with the information from the developments in the in nominal effective exchange rate (NEER). IIPI is calculated as the annual growth of IPI and NEER for the respective period. IIPI is assessed to affect domestic inflation approximately after a 2 months’ time lag.

41 It is a proxy of imported inflation pressures, comparable to tradable goods sector inflation of Albania’s CPI basket. The import price index is based on the values of: the inflation of “Food, beverages, tobacco” for the 18 main countries; and the inflation of “Items” (i.e., not only foods) for Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Italy and Turkey.

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The increase of IIPI in the first three quarters of 2019 materialised in an increased contribution of imported inflation in 2019 Q4 (0.8 percentage point). Despite this development, the relevant contribution in average terms for 2019 remained lower than that from domestic inflation, standing at 48% and 52%, respectively. Imported inflation showed high volatility during the last months of 2019. However, curbing pressures from the exchange rate are assessed to have trended downwards during 2019 H2.

Chart 39 IIPI and contributions of its components (left). Contributions of imported in�ation and domestic in�ation to annual headline in�ation (right)

Source: INSTAT and estimations of the Bank of Albania.

-15

-10

-5

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2010Q1

2010Q3

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11NEERForeign pricesIn�ationary pressures from foreign prices

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Imported In�ationDomestic In�ationTotal in�ation

inflation expectations42

Measurements other than inflation expectations surveys during 2019 Q4 remain overall at levels similar to the previous quarter. Their level continues to stay higher than official inflation in the last quarters. More specifically, in 2019 Q4 consumers expect that one-year-ahead inflation will be 3.8%, down by 0.2 percentage point from the previous quarter43.

42 The analysis on inflation expectations is based on the results of the business and consumer confidence survey, as well as on the financial agents’ expectations survey.

43 Starting from 2019 Q1, inflationary expectations of businesses and consumers are reported by measuring through direct quantitative questions rather than intervals. This question has been addressed to businesses and consumers starting from 2016 Q2. The extension of this series back in time is done by using the values of the old question with intervals. The change in the form of the question, (from interval values to open quantitative points) has caused an increase of volatility in the series. Time series of businesses and consumers’ inflation expectations, with both measurement ways, in addition to an explanation on how they are built, are published at the Bank of Albania’s website.

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Chart 40 One-year-ahead in�ation expectations, businesses and consumers (left) and �nancial agents, according to three horizons (right), annual change in %

Source: INSTAT and Bank of Albania.

0

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Actual in�ationFA 3 yearsFA 2 yearsFA 1 year

Businesses and financial agents expect that one-year-ahead inflation after a year will be 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively, the same values as in the previous quarter. The expectations of financial agents also remained unchanged for two and three-year-ahead inflation, at 2.1% and 2.4%, respectively.

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57 Banka e Shqipërisë

Shtojca StatiStikore fq/pg. StatiStical appendix

Tregues të përgjithshëm makroekonomikë 58 Main macroeconomic indicators1. Zhvillimet monetare dhe normat e interesit 58 Monetary developments and interest rates 1.2. Prodhimi i brendshëm bruto, indekset e çmimeve dhe tregu i punës 58  Gross domestic product, price indexes and labor

market 2.3. Bilanci i pagesave 6, rezerva dhe kursi i këmbimit 59 Balance of payments 6, reserves and exchange rate 3.4. Bilanci fiskal, stoku i borxhit të brendshëm dhe borxhi i jashtëm 59 Fiscal balance, domestic debt stock and external debt 4.1 SEKTORI FINANCIAR 60 FINANCIAL SECTOR 11-1 Bilanci sektorial i Bankës së Shqipërisë 60 Sectoral balance sheet of Bank of Albania 1-11-2 Paraqitja monetare e Bankës së Shqipërisë 61 Monetary survey of Bank of Albania 1-21-3.a Bilanci sektorial i bankave paradepozituese/ Mjetet 62 Sectoral balance sheet of deposit money banks/ Assets 1-3.a1-3.b Bilanci sektorial i bankave paradepozituese/ Detyrimet 63 Sectoral balance sheet of deposit money banks/Liabilities 1-3.b1-4 Paraqitja monetare e bankave paradepozituese 64 Monetary survey of deposit money banks 1-41-5 Bilanci sektorial i shoqërive të kursim-kreditit 65 Sectoral balance sheet of savings and loan associations 1-51-6 Paraqitja monetare e korporatave të tjera depozituese 66 Monetary survey of other depository corporations 1-61-7 Paraqitja monetare e korporatave depozituese 67 Monetary survey of depository corporations 1-71-8.a Agregatët monetarë dhe përbërësit e tyre 68 Monetary aggregates and their components 1-8.a1-8.b Kundërpartitë e agregatëve monetarë 69  Counterparts of monetary aggregates 1-8.b1-9 Depozitat në lekë sipas sektorëve 70 Lek denominated deposits by sectors 1-91-10 Depozitat në valutë sipas sektorëve 70 Foreign currency denominated deposits by sectors 1-101-11 Kredia për ekonominë sipas sektorit 71 Credit to economy by sector 1-111-12 Huatë e korporatave jofinanciare sipas aktivitetit ekonomik (NVE - Rev.2) 72 Loans of non-financial corporations by economic activity

(Nace - Rev.2) 1-121-13a Huatë e korporatave jofinanciare private sipas qëllimit të përdorimit dhe monedhës 73 Private non-financial corporations loans by purpose and

currency 1-13a1-13b Huatë e korporatave jofinanciare publike sipas qëllimit të përdorimit dhe monedhës 74 Public non-financial corporations loans

by purpose and currency 1-13b1-14 Huatë e Individëve dhe Institucioneve jo me qëllim fitimi që u shërbejnë individëve sipas qëllimit të përdorimit dhe monedhës 75 Households + Non-profit institutions serving households

loans by purpose and currency 1-141-15 Huatë sipas rretheve 76 Loans by districts 1-151-16 Normat e interesit të Bankës së Shqipërisë 77 Bank of Albania interest rates 1-161-17 Normat e interesit për depozitat e reja të korporatave jo-financiare, individëve dhe institucioneve jo me qëllim fitimi që u shërbejnë individëve sipas monedhave

78Interest rates on new deposits of non-financial

corporations, households and NPISH by currency 1-17

1-18 Normat e interesit për huatë e reja të korporatave jo-financiare, individëve dhe institucioneve jo me qëllim fitimi që u shërbejnë individëve sipas monedhave

79 Interest rates on new loans of non-financial corporations, households and NPISH by currency 1-18

1-18a Normat e interesit për huatë e reja të korporatave jofinanciare private sipas qëllimit të përdorimit dhe monedhës 80 Interest rates on new loans of private non-financial

corporations by purpose and currency 1-18a1-18b Normat e interesit për huatë e reja të individëve dhe institucioneve jo me qëllim fitimi që u shërbejnë individëve, sipas qëllimit të përdorimit dhe monedhës

81 Interest rates on new loans of households and NPISH by purpose and currency 1-18b

1-19 Normat e interesit për bonot e thesarit sipas afatit 82 Maturity breakdown of Treausury bills yields 1-191-20 Statistika të sistemit të pagesave 83 Payment systems statistics 1-201-21 Shpërndarja rajonale e terminaleve të bankave ATM & POS 83 ATM & POS bank terminals’ distribution of by regions 1-211-22 Numri i llogarive të klientëve në banka 83 Number of customers accounts with banks 1-22 2 SEKTORI I JASHTËM 84 EXTERNAL SECTOR 22-1 Bilanci i Pagesave 1 84 Balance of payments 1 2-12-2 Kurset e këmbimit të lekut kundrejt monedhave kryesore 85 Exchange rate 2-22-3 Eksporti sipas grup mallrave 85 Export by commodity groups 2-32-4 Importi sipas grup mallrave 86 Import by commodity groups 2-42-5 Borxhi i jashtëm bruto 86 Gross external debt 2-53 SEKTORI FISKAL 87 FISCAL SECTOR 33-1 Treguesit fiskalë sipas buxhetit të konsoliduar 87 Fiscal indicators regarding consolidated budget 3-13-2 Stoku i borxhit të brendshëm sipas instrumenteve 87 Domestic debt stock by instruments 3-24 SEKTORI REAL 88 REAL SECTOR 44-1 Prodhimi i brendshëm bruto sipas klasifikimit të aktivitetit ekonomik, (Metoda e Prodhimit NVE Rev 2) 88 Gross domestic product by economic activities,

(Production Method NACE Rev 2) 4-14-2 Indeksi i çmimeve të prodhimit dhe indeksi i kushtimit në ndërtim (për banesa) 89 Producer price index and construction cost index 4-2 (for

dwellings)4-3 Indeksi i çmimeve të konsumit 90 Consumer price index 4-34-4 Punësimi, papunësia dhe pagat 91 Employment, unemployment and wages 4-4

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) / Y

early

ch

ange

s in

CPI

(%)

Treg

u i p

unës

(gru

p m

osha

15-

64) /

Labo

r mar

ket (

age

grou

p 15

-64

)

Prod

ukti

Bren

dshë

m B

ruto

(P

BB) /

Gro

ss d

omes

tic

prod

uct (

GD

P)

Paga

t e të

pun

ësua

rve,

ne

to /

Com

pens

atio

n of

em

ploy

ees,

net

Të A

rdhu

ra n

ga p

rona

, ne

to /

Pro

perty

inco

me,

ne

t

Të A

rdhu

rat K

ombë

tare

Br

uto

/ G

ross

Nat

iona

l In

com

eSh

kalla

e p

unës

imit

/

Empl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

Shka

lla e

pap

unës

isë /

Une

mpl

oy-

men

t rat

e (%

)

12

34

5=2+

3+4

67

8

2016

3.3

1,47

2,47

9.1

35,7

50.8

-11,

837.

01,

496,

393.

02.

255

.915

.6

2017

3.8

1,55

1,28

1.3

35,2

27.6

-31,

441.

81,

555,

067.

21.

857

.414

.1

2018

  

  

 1.

859

.512

.8

2019

  

  

 1.

 

Burim

i: IN

STAT

.So

urce

: IN

STAT

.

Page 59: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

59 Banka e Shqipërisë

3. b

ilan

ci i

pa

ges

ave

6, r

eZer

va d

he

kurs

i i k

ëmbi

miT

mili

onë

euro

, për

veç

raste

ve k

ur s

hëno

het n

drys

heba

lan

ce

of

paym

enTs

6, r

eser

ves

an

d e

xch

an

ge

raTe

3.

in m

illio

ns e

ur,

unl

ess

othe

rwis

e in

dica

ted

 Bi

lanc

i i ll

ogar

isë k

orre

nte

/ C

urre

nt a

ccou

nt

 In

vesti

met

dire

kte n

eto

/

Dire

ct in

vestm

ents,

net

Reze

rvat

val

utor

e (st

ok)/

Re

serv

es (s

tock

)Re

zerv

at n

ë m

uaj

impo

rte /

Res

erve

s in

m

onth

s of

impo

rt

Kurs

i i k

ëmbi

mit

/ Ex

chan

ge ra

te

Nga

të c

ilat:

Bila

nci t

regt

ar /

Of

whi

ch:T

rade

bal

ance

(3-4

Nga

të c

ilat:

Rem

itanc

at /

Of

whi

ch: R

emitt

ance

sM

esat

are

e pe

riudh

ës /

Per

iod

aver

age

Eksp

orti

/

Expo

rtIm

porti

/

Impo

rtAL

L / E

UR

ALL /

USD

12

34

56

78

910

2017

-866

.0-2

,824

.279

7.1

3,62

1.2

635.

7-9

93.8

2,99

5.9

6.7

134.

211

9.1

2018

-866

.4-2

,871

.198

6.1

3,85

7.2

669.

6-1

,022

.23,

399.

07.

012

7.6

108.

0

2019

  

  

  

3,35

9.6

 12

3.0

109.

9

Burim

i: Ba

nka

e Sh

qipë

risë.

Sour

ce: B

ank

of A

lban

ia.

4. b

ilan

ci f

iska

l, s

Toku

i bo

rxh

iT T

ë br

end

shëm

dh

e bo

rxh

i i ja

shTë

mn

ë m

iliar

dë le

këfi

sca

l ba

lan

ce,

do

mes

Tic

deb

T sT

oc

k a

nd

exT

ern

al

deb

T 4.

in b

illio

ns a

ll

 Të

Ard

hura

/

Reve

nue

 Sh

penz

ime

/

Expe

nditu

re

 

Def

iciti

/ D

efic

it

 St

oku

i bor

xhit

të Q

ever

isë Q

ëndr

ore,

për

fshirë

bor

xhin

e g

aran

tuar

/S

tock

of C

entra

l Gov

ernm

ent D

ebt i

nclu

ding

Deb

t Gua

rant

ees

Nga

të c

ilat:

Të a

rdhu

ra ta

ti-m

ore

/Of w

hich

: Tax

reve

nue

Shpe

nzim

e ka

pita

le /

Cap

ital

expe

nditu

reFi

nanc

im i

bren

dshë

m

/ D

omes

tic fi

nanc

ing

Fina

ncim

i hu

aj /

Fo

reig

n fin

anci

ngSt

oku

i bor

xhit

të b

rend

shëm

/

Dom

estic

deb

t sto

ckSt

oku

i bor

xhit

të ja

shtë

m /

Ex

tern

al d

ebt s

tock

12

34

56

78

9

2017

430.

539

8.6

461.

468

.5-3

0.9

1.8

29.1

577.

510.

3

2018

449.

941

9.3

476.

178

.4-2

6.2

-6.9

33.1

580.

526.

3

2019

460.

342

6.3

491.

975

.0-3

1.5

40.9

-9.4

  

 

Burim

i: M

inist

ria e

Fin

anca

ve d

he E

kono

misë

.1)

Për

fshih

en v

etëm

llog

aritë

dhe

dep

ozita

t që

janë

pje

së e

par

asë

së g

jerë

.2)

Për

faqë

son

kred

inë

për e

kono

min

ë.3)

Nor

ma

mes

atar

e e

pond

erua

r vje

tore

e d

epoz

itave

dhe

hua

ve të

reja

12

muj

ore

në le

kë p

ër s

istem

in b

anka

r.4)

dhën

at i

refe

rohe

n no

rmës

fund

të p

eriu

dhës

.5)

201

7 G

jysë

m-fi

nale

.6)

Janë

rish

ikua

r të

dhën

at p

ër v

itin

2018

.

Sour

ce: M

inist

ry o

f Fin

ance

and

Eco

nom

y.1)

Dep

osits

incl

uded

in b

road

mon

ey.

2) C

redi

t to

econ

omy.

3) T

he a

nnua

l wei

ghte

d av

erag

e ra

te o

f the

12

mon

ths

new

dep

osits

and

loan

s in

ALL

for t

he b

anki

ng s

yste

m.

4) E

nd o

f per

iod

data

. 5

) 201

7 Se

mifi

nal d

ata.

6) D

ata

are

revi

sed

for t

he y

ear 2

018.

Page 60: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

60Banka e Shqipërisë

1 s

ekTo

ri f

ina

nc

iar

1-1

bila

nc

i sek

Tori

al

i ba

nkë

s së

sh

qip

ëris

ën

ë m

ilion

ë le

kë, f

und

periu

dhe 

fin

an

cia

l se

cTo

r 1

sec

Tora

l ba

lan

ce

shee

T o

f ba

nk

of

alb

an

ia 1

-1in

mill

ions

all

, end

of p

erio

d

 

Tota

li i m

jete

ve

/ To

tal a

sset

s (2

+ 3+

4+

5+

8+ 1

2+ 1

3+

14)

 

Ari m

onet

ar

dhe

mba

jtjet

e

SDR/

Mon

etar

y go

ld a

nd S

DR

hold

ings

Arka

valu

të /

Fo

reig

n cu

rrenc

y

Dep

ozita

/

Dep

osits

Letra

t me

vlerë

ndr

yshm

e ng

a ak

sione

t / S

ecu-

ritie

s ot

her t

han

shar

es (6

+7)

 H

uatë

/

Loan

s (9

+ 10

+ 11

)

 D

eriv

atet

fina

nc-

iare

/ F

inan

cial

de

rivat

ives

Lloga

ri të

ar

këtu

eshm

e /

Rece

ivab

le

acco

unts

Mje

te jo

finan

c-ia

re/

Non

finan

-ci

al a

sset

sJo

rezi

dent

ë /

N

onre

siden

ts Q

ever

ia Q

ën-

dror

e /

Cen

tral

Gov

ernm

ent

Qev

eria

Qën

-dr

ore

/ C

entra

l G

over

nmen

t

Korp

orat

a të

tjer

a de

pozi

tues

e /

Oth

er

depo

sitor

y co

rpor

atio

ns

Sekto

rë të

tjer

ë re

zide

ntë

/ O

ther

re

siden

t sec

tors

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

2017

/12

532,

927.

025

,725

.324

.316

1,61

7.3

259,

537.

820

6,81

8.9

52,7

18.8

41,5

91.0

_39

,871

.31,

719.

811

.723

,844

.920

,574

.7

2018

/12

547,

104.

219

,625

.067

.118

9,90

4.2

261,

577.

220

5,99

0.4

55,5

86.8

34,1

44.7

_32

,317

.61,

827.

119

.321

,224

.920

,542

.0

2019

/12

539,

621.

724

,187

.998

.315

2,38

7.6

283,

678.

922

8,51

4.0

55,1

64.9

36,0

97.8

_33

,956

.42,

141.

413

.822

,325

.320

,832

.0

2019

/07

525,

043.

921

,965

.220

.217

4,30

1.5

248,

987.

319

2,06

7.9

56,9

19.4

37,5

90.6

_35

,517

.92,

072.

710

.421

,565

.120

,603

.7

2019

/08

534,

754.

022

,077

.919

7.3

180,

893.

526

1,36

1.8

204,

809.

656

,552

.127

,821

.6_

25,7

46.6

2,07

5.0

23.1

21,8

03.5

20,5

75.4

2019

/09

550,

846.

522

,641

.014

.917

3,87

0.1

277,

311.

222

0,67

4.3

56,6

36.9

34,7

73.7

_32

,697

.32,

076.

419

.421

,613

.020

,603

.2

2019

/10

539,

715.

523

,672

.741

.915

9,74

0.4

281,

341.

022

5,67

0.5

55,6

70.5

32,5

17.5

_30

,401

.02,

116.

520

.421

,810

.420

,571

.2

2019

/11

531,

030.

322

,799

.576

.614

2,17

2.0

290,

178.

423

4,90

1.2

55,2

77.2

33,6

25.7

_31

,478

.02,

147.

716

.321

,598

.220

,563

.6

2019

/12

539,

621.

724

,187

.998

.315

2,38

7.6

283,

678.

922

8,51

4.0

55,1

64.9

36,0

97.8

_33

,956

.42,

141.

413

.822

,325

.320

,832

.0

 

Det

yrim

et

tota

le /

To-

tal l

iabi

lities

(2

+ 3+

4+

10+

14+

15+

16)

 

Para

ja n

ë qa

rkul

lim /

C

urre

ncy

in

circ

ulat

ion

Dep

ozita

për

fshira

par

anë

e gj

erë

/

Dep

osits

in

clud

ed in

br

oad

mon

ey

Dep

ozita

papë

rfshi

ra n

ë pa

ranë

e g

jerë

/

Dep

osits

exc

lud-

ed fr

om b

road

m

oney

(5+

6+

7+ 8

+ 9)

 

Hua

të /

Lo

ans

(11+

12

+ 13

)

 Llo

gari

pagu

eshm

e /

Oth

er

acco

unts

paya

ble

Alok

imi i

SD

R /

SDR

allo

catio

n

Aksio

ne d

he

instr

umen

te të

tje

rë të

kap

italit

/ Sh

ares

and

ot

her e

quity

Jore

zide

ntët

/

Non

resi-

dent

s

Qev

eria

Q

ëndr

ore

/ C

entra

l G

over

nmen

t

Korp

orat

a të

tjer

a de

pozi

tues

e /

O

ther

dep

osito

-ry

cor

pora

tions

Korp

orat

a të

tje

ra jo

finan

c-ia

re /

Oth

er

nonf

inan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Sek

torë

tjer

ë re

zide

ntë

/

Oth

er re

si-de

nt s

ecto

rs

Jore

zide

ntët

/

Non

resi-

dent

s

Qev

eria

Q

ëndr

ore

/ C

entra

l G

over

nmen

t

Korp

orat

a të

tjer

a de

pozi

tues

e /

O

ther

dep

osito

-ry

cor

pora

tions

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

2017

/12

532,

927.

027

4,71

1.8

3,89

9.2

200,

513.

919

,350

.934

,384

.314

6,63

2.1

66.7

79.9

115.

611

5.6

__

463.

87,

340.

545

,882

.2

2018

/12

547,

104.

228

6,15

8.4

50.6

222,

291.

917

,047

.367

,945

.213

7,21

8.8

49.6

31.0

18.3

18.3

__

518.

76,

977.

731

,088

.6

2019

/12

539,

621.

730

3,09

2.6

102.

219

4,62

2.8

17,1

08.5

46,6

85.3

130,

756.

452

.520

.1_

__

_1,

690.

86,

987.

333

,126

.1

2019

/07

525,

043.

929

4,38

4.9

59.7

190,

975.

317

,342

.546

,609

.112

6,94

3.9

55.1

24.7

__

__

708.

06,

987.

931

,928

.2

2019

/08

534,

754.

029

9,89

6.5

59.7

191,

162.

817

,340

.746

,383

.312

7,36

3.6

52.6

22.5

__

__

840.

37,

042.

435

,752

.4

2019

/09

550,

846.

529

7,07

0.5

59.7

209,

811.

517

,340

.751

,253

.614

1,14

3.2

53.8

20.2

__

__

597.

97,

089.

536

,217

.4

2019

/10

539,

715.

529

4,63

9.6

105.

920

0,08

0.3

17,3

49.1

52,6

51.7

130,

005.

552

.421

.6_

__

_56

5.4

7,07

8.1

37,2

46.3

2019

/11

531,

030.

329

8,57

8.5

784.

218

7,91

2.8

17,3

47.0

49,6

86.8

120,

804.

852

.521

.6_

__

_27

2.5

7,10

5.6

36,3

76.9

2019

/12

539,

621.

730

3,09

2.6

102.

219

4,62

2.8

17,1

08.5

46,6

85.3

130,

756.

452

.520

.1_

__

_1,

690.

86,

987.

333

,126

.1

Bur

imi:

Bank

a e

Shqi

përis

ë.

Sour

ce: B

ank

of A

lban

ia.

Page 61: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

61 Banka e Shqipërisë

1-2

para

qiT

ja m

on

eTa

re e

ba

nkë

s së

sh

qip

ëris

ën

ë m

ilion

ë le

kë, f

und

periu

dhe

mo

neT

ary

su

rvey

of

ban

k o

f a

lba

nia

1-2

in m

illio

ns a

ll, e

nd o

f per

iod

 

Mje

te v

alut

ore

neto

/ N

et

fore

ign

asse

ts (2

- 3)

 M

jete

t e

bren

dshm

e /

D

omes

tic a

sset

s (5

+ 8+

9+

10+

11+

12)

 

 Pr

eten

dim

e ne

to n

daj

Qev

erisë

Qën

dror

e /

N

et c

laim

s on

Cen

tral

Gov

ernm

ent (

6-7)

Pret

endi

me

ndaj

ko

rpor

atav

e të

tje

ra d

epoz

itues

e /

Cla

ims

on

othe

r dep

osito

ry

corp

orat

ions

Pret

endi

me

ndaj

ko

rpor

atav

e të

tje

ra fi

nanc

iare

/

Cla

ims

on

othe

r fin

anci

al

corp

orat

ions

Pret

endi

me

ndaj

ko

rpor

atav

e jo

fi-na

ncia

re p

ublik

e /

Cla

ims

on p

ub-

lic n

onfin

anci

al

corp

orat

ions

Pret

endi

me

ndaj

ko

rpor

atav

e të

tje

ra jo

finan

ciar

e /

Cla

ims

on o

th-

er n

onfin

anci

al

corp

orat

ions

Pret

endi

me

ndaj

se

ktorë

ve të

tje

rë re

zide

ntë

/ C

laim

s on

ot

her r

esid

ent

sect

ors

Pret

endi

me

ndaj

jo

rezi

dent

ëve/

C

laim

s on

non

res-

iden

ts

Min

us: D

etyr

ime

ndaj

jore

zide

ntëv

e /

Less

: Lia

biliti

es to

no

nres

iden

ts

Pre

tend

ime

ndaj

Q

ever

isë Q

ëndr

ore

/ C

laim

s on

Cen

tral

Gov

ernm

ent

Min

us: D

etyr

ime

ndaj

Q

ever

isë Q

ëndr

ore

/

Less

:Liab

ilitie

s to

Cen

tral

Gov

ernm

ent

12

34

56

78

910

1112

2017

/12

390,

687.

641

7,60

5.4

26,9

17.8

59,9

98.0

18,4

06.7

52,8

39.5

34,4

32.8

39,8

71.3

__

_1,

720.

0

2018

/12

412,

444.

543

6,48

7.8

24,0

43.3

21,7

79.0

-12,

365.

855

,628

.967

,994

.832

,317

.6_

__

1,82

7.2

2019

/12

402,

015.

942

6,98

4.7

24,9

68.8

44,5

88.6

8,49

0.4

55,2

06.3

46,7

15.9

33,9

56.4

__

_2,

141.

8

2019

/07

384,

673.

740

9,55

4.9

24,8

81.2

47,9

42.9

10,3

51.9

56,9

94.0

46,6

42.1

35,5

17.9

__

_2,

073.

0

2019

/08

404,

527.

842

9,43

0.3

24,9

02.5

37,9

99.0

10,1

76.8

56,5

93.8

46,4

17.0

25,7

46.6

__

_2,

075.

6

2019

/09

413,

772.

943

8,47

0.9

24,6

98.0

40,1

66.2

5,39

0.2

56,6

78.4

51,2

88.2

32,6

97.3

__

_2,

078.

7

2019

/10

405,

852.

543

0,60

9.9

24,7

57.4

35,5

28.1

3,00

9.0

55,7

12.0

52,7

03.1

30,4

01.0

__

_2,

118.

1

2019

/11

396,

772.

442

1,22

5.0

24,4

52.6

39,2

32.0

5,60

2.3

55,3

18.7

49,7

16.4

31,4

78.0

__

1.5

2,15

0.2

2019

/12

402,

015.

942

6,98

4.7

24,9

68.8

44,5

88.6

8,49

0.4

55,2

06.3

46,7

15.9

33,9

56.4

__

_2,

141.

8

 

Baz

a m

onet

are

/

Mon

etar

y ba

se (1

4+

15+

16)

  D

epoz

ita të

pap

ërfsh

ira n

ë pa

ranë

e g

jerë

/ D

epos

its

excl

uded

from

bro

ad m

oney

H

uatë

/

Loan

s Llo

gari

të p

ague

shm

e /

O

ther

acc

ount

s pa

yabl

e T

ë tje

ra n

eto

/

Oth

er it

ems

net

Aks

ione

dhe

instr

umen

te të

tjer

ë të

kap

italit

/ Sh

ares

and

oth

er

equi

ty

Par

aja

në q

arku

llim /

C

urre

ncy

in c

ircul

atio

n D

etyr

ime

ndaj

kor

pora

tave

të tj

era

depo

zitu

ese

/ Lia

biliti

es to

oth

er

depo

sitor

y co

rpor

atio

ns

Dep

ozita

të p

ërfsh

ira n

ë pa

ranë

e

gjer

ë /

Dep

osits

incl

uded

in

broa

d m

oney

13 1

4 1

5 1

6 17

18

19

20

21

2017

/12

425,

243.

127

4,71

1.8

146,

632.

13,

899.

214

6.6

_96

.8-2

0,68

3.2

45,8

82.2

2018

/12

423,

427.

928

6,15

8.4

137,

218.

850

.680

.6_

285.

4-2

0,65

9.0

31,0

88.6

2019

/12

433,

951.

230

3,09

2.6

130,

756.

410

2.2

72.6

_22

9.5

-20,

774.

933

,126

.1

2019

/07

421,

388.

529

4,38

4.9

126,

943.

959

.779

.8_

33.8

-20,

813.

731

,928

.2

2019

/08

427,

319.

829

9,89

6.5

127,

363.

659

.775

.1_

197.

0-2

0,81

7.6

35,7

52.4

2019

/09

438,

273.

429

7,07

0.5

141,

143.

259

.773

.9_

211.

1-2

0,83

6.7

36,2

17.4

2019

/10

424,

751.

029

4,63

9.6

130,

005.

510

5.9

74.0

_99

.3-2

0,78

9.9

37,2

46.3

2019

/11

420,

167.

429

8,57

8.5

120,

804.

878

4.2

74.1

_15

8.5

-20,

772.

536

,376

.9

2019

/12

433,

951.

230

3,09

2.6

130,

756.

410

2.2

72.6

_22

9.5

-20,

774.

933

,126

.1

Burim

i: Ba

nka

e Sh

qipë

risë.

Sour

ce: B

ank

of A

lban

ia.

Page 62: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

62Banka e Shqipërisë

1-3.

a b

ilan

ci s

ekTo

ria

l i b

an

kave

pa

rad

epo

ZiTu

ese/

mje

TeT

mili

onë

lekë

, fun

d pe

riudh

ese

cTo

ral

bala

nc

e sh

eeT

of

dep

osi

T m

on

ey b

an

ks/

ass

eTs

1-3.

ain

mill

ions

all

, end

of p

erio

d

 

Tota

li i m

jete

ve

/ To

tal a

sset

s (2

+ 3+

4+

8+

12+

22+

25+

26+

27)

 

Arka

lekë

/

Nat

iona

l cur

renc

y Ar

ka n

ë va

lutë

/

Fore

ign

curre

ncy

Dep

ozita

/ D

e-po

sits

(5+

6+ 7

)

  Le

tra m

e vle

të n

drys

hme

nga

aksio

net /

Sec

uriti

es

othe

rs th

an s

hare

s (9

+ 10

+ 11

)

 

Jore

zide

ntët

/

Non

resid

ents

Bank

a Q

ëndr

ore

/

Cen

tral B

ank

Bank

at p

arad

e-po

zitu

ese

/ D

epos

it m

oney

ban

ks

Nga

të c

ilat

/ of

whi

ch:

Jore

zide

ntët

/

Non

resid

ents

Qev

eria

Qën

dror

e/C

entra

l Gov

ernm

ent

Korp

orat

a të

tjer

a jo

finan

ciar

e /

O

ther

non

finan

cial

cor

pora

tions

12

34

56

78

 9

1011

2017

/12

1,46

2,99

0.6

9,44

1.1

12,7

15.8

328,

020.

917

1,79

9.1

146,

853.

39,

368.

541

6,70

7.4

 74

,240

.434

2,46

7.1

_

2018

/12

1,45

3,17

6.7

10,8

66.9

14,6

59.7

336,

111.

518

6,53

3.3

142,

821.

56,

756.

844

4,45

9.8

 87

,379

.335

7,04

9.6

30.9

1

2019

/12

1,51

2,44

3.5

11,6

74.7

14,2

34.0

341,

593.

020

4,77

2.3

130,

850.

85,

969.

848

0,20

9.6

 10

4,54

6.3

375,

632.

830

.5

2019

/07

1,47

7,43

4.4

10,7

79.0

14,7

88.7

345,

664.

920

9,31

4.8

129,

518.

46,

831.

744

4,88

1.9

 86

,788

.635

8,06

2.7

30.6

2019

/08

1,48

9,45

3.6

11,5

07.8

15,0

49.8

343,

670.

320

4,36

0.8

133,

589.

75,

719.

845

2,46

5.7

 89

,768

.136

2,66

6.8

30.8

2019

/09

1,49

5,79

0.7

12,8

11.1

13,0

34.5

347,

632.

420

0,99

6.1

141,

065.

25,

571.

145

7,49

5.7

 91

,266

.836

6,19

8.1

30.9

2019

/10

1,50

1,90

9.0

11,1

43.7

12,8

85.9

345,

452.

620

8,78

1.2

132,

038.

94,

632.

646

2,61

4.3

 91

,487

.937

1,09

5.2

31.3

2019

/11

1,50

4,29

1.4

11,9

79.7

12,0

45.4

340,

734.

621

3,08

4.3

121,

598.

16,

052.

347

2,31

4.5

 98

,722

.437

3,56

1.0

31.2

2019

/12

1,51

2,44

3.5

11,6

74.7

14,2

34.0

341,

593.

020

4,77

2.3

130,

850.

85,

969.

848

0,20

9.6

 10

4,54

6.3

375,

632.

830

.5

 

Hua

të /

Loan

s (1

3+

14+

15+

16+

17+

18+

19+

20+

21)

 Ak

sione

dhe

instr

u-m

ente

të tj

erë

kapi

talit

/ Sh

ares

an

d ot

her e

quity

(2

3+24

)

Der

ivat

et

finan

ciar

e /

Fina

ncia

l de

rivat

ives

Lloga

ri të

Ar

këtu

eshm

e /

Oth

er

acco

unts

rece

ivab

le

Mje

te jo

fi-na

ncia

re /

N

onfin

anci

al

asse

ts Jo

rezi

dent

ët /

N

onre

siden

ts

Bank

a Q

ëndr

ore

/ C

entra

l Ba

nk

Bank

at

para

de-

pozi

tues

e /

Dep

osit

mon

ey b

anks

Korp

orat

a të

tje

ra fi

nanc

-ia

re /

Oth

er

finan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Qev

eria

Q

ëndr

ore

/ C

entra

l G

over

n-m

ent

Qev

eria

lo

kale

/

Loca

l gov

-er

nmen

t

Korp

orat

a jo

finan

ciar

e pu

blik

e /

Publ

ic

nonf

inan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Korp

orat

a të

tje

ra jo

finan

c-ia

re /

Oth

er

nonf

inan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Sek

torë

tjer

ë re

zide

ntë

/

Oth

er re

si-de

nt s

ecto

rs

Jore

zide

ntët

/

Non

resi-

dent

s Re

zide

ntë

/ Re

siden

ts

1213

1415

1617

1819

2021

2223

2425

2627

2017

/12

631,

258.

484

,104

.3_

2,77

0.3

7,94

4.7

2,12

9.2

787.

734

,901

.332

9,37

7.0

169,

244.

07,

970.

07,

093.

487

6.7

85.0

11,6

43.0

45,1

49.0

2018

/12

586,

280.

554

,657

.4_

713.

310

,164

.07,

119.

768

2.6

20,2

70.0

317,

578.

417

5,09

5.2

8,08

9.8

7,18

9.6

900.

2_

7,67

6.2

45,0

32.1

2019

/12

605,

644.

837

,338

.5_

1,99

2.8

13,5

55.1

5,62

0.6

560.

624

,182

.433

5,88

4.5

186,

510.

37,

119.

06,

129.

099

0.0

_8,

870.

743

,097

.7

2019

/07

598,

114.

242

,181

.2_

2,54

4.3

12,4

48.0

5,62

0.3

609.

622

,778

.832

9,99

9.4

181,

932.

57,

777.

45,

793.

51,

983.

90.

811

,031

.144

,396

.7

2019

/08

604,

387.

741

,728

.7_

5,90

3.3

13,0

54.6

5,63

3.3

604.

122

,223

.833

1,61

2.2

183,

627.

86,

846.

55,

916.

293

0.4

_11

,570

.143

,955

.7

2019

/09

604,

108.

238

,912

.7_

3,57

6.8

13,2

22.7

5,63

6.5

590.

722

,298

.833

5,06

7.5

184,

802.

56,

833.

35,

867.

996

5.3

0.6

10,0

54.1

43,8

20.9

2019

/10

608,

210.

741

,228

.7_

2,76

9.4

13,0

10.8

5,69

3.1

579.

522

,832

.133

5,81

7.9

186,

279.

27,

022.

66,

055.

996

6.7

3.9

10,4

10.3

44,1

65.2

2019

/11

607,

212.

240

,527

.5_

2,87

4.1

13,1

18.0

5,65

1.4

573.

923

,073

.533

4,44

8.6

186,

945.

37,

179.

86,

198.

298

1.5

_9,

770.

043

,055

.4

2019

/12

605,

644.

837

,338

.5_

1,99

2.8

13,5

55.1

5,62

0.6

560.

624

,182

.433

5,88

4.5

186,

510.

37,

119.

06,

129.

099

0.0

_8,

870.

743

,097

.7

Bur

imi:

Bank

a e

Shqi

përis

ë.

 Sou

rce:

Ban

k of

Alb

ania

.

Page 63: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

63 Banka e Shqipërisë

1-3.

b bi

lan

ci s

ekTo

ria

l i b

an

kave

pa

rad

epo

ZiTu

ese/

deT

yrim

eTn

ë m

ilion

ë le

kë, f

und

periu

dhe

sec

Tora

l ba

lan

ce

shee

T o

f d

epo

siT

mo

ney

ba

nks

/ lia

biliT

ies

1-3.

bin

mill

ions

all

, end

of p

erio

d

 

Det

yrim

et

tota

le /

Tot

al

liabi

lities

(2+

8+ 1

7+ 2

0+

28+

29+

30)

Dep

ozita

përfs

hira

para

në e

gje

/ D

epos

its in

-cl

uded

in b

road

m

oney

(3+

4+

5+ 6

+ 7)

 D

epoz

ita të

pap

ërf-

shira

para

në e

gj

erë

/ D

epos

its

not i

nclu

ded

in

broa

d m

oney

(9+

10+

11+

12+

13+

14+

15+1

6)

 

Korp

orat

a të

tje

ra fi

nanc

-ia

re /

Oth

er

finan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Qev

eria

lo

kale

/

Loca

l G

over

n-m

ents

Korp

orat

a jo

finan

ciar

e pu

blik

e /

Pub-

lic n

onfin

anci

al

corp

orat

ions

Korp

orat

a të

tje

ra jo

finan

c-ia

re /

Oth

er

nonf

inan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Sekto

të tj

erë

rezi

dent

ë /

O

ther

resi-

dent

sec

tors

Jore

zide

ntët

/

Non

resi-

dent

s

Bank

a e

Shqi

përis

ë /

Bank

of

Alba

nia

Korp

orat

a të

tjer

a de

pozi

tues

e /

O

ther

dep

osito

-ry

cor

pora

tions

Qev

eria

Q

ëndr

ore

/ C

entra

l G

over

n-m

ent

Korp

orat

a të

tje

ra fi

nanc

-ia

re /

Oth

er

finan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Korp

orat

a jo

finan

ciar

e pu

blik

e /

Pub-

lic n

onfin

anci

al

corp

orat

ions

Korp

orat

a të

tje

ra jo

finan

c-ia

re /

Oth

er

nonf

inan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Sekto

të tj

erë

rezi

dent

ë /

O

ther

resi-

dent

sec

tors

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

2017

/12

1,46

2,99

0.6

991,

609.

015

,044

.31,

499.

412

,992

.014

2,52

6.8

819,

546.

516

4,69

7.4

15,7

72.9

1,06

2.2

13,0

09.9

8,25

5.4

1,72

2.5

318.

47,

396.

311

7,15

9.8

2018

/12

1,45

3,17

6.7

981,

771.

814

,850

.61,

608.

513

,599

.714

8,77

7.4

802,

935.

518

8,14

6.8

15,8

13.7

6,00

4.2

9,47

8.6

8,15

5.9

2,09

2.0

376.

27,

349.

113

8,87

7.1

2019

/12

1,51

2,44

3.5

1,01

8,91

5.1

20,2

50.0

1,79

2.5

15,8

40.7

153,

398.

382

7,63

3.6

209,

523.

213

,646

.482

2.2

8,42

9.9

8,45

5.7

3,87

9.2

335.

98,

185.

216

5,76

8.9

2019

/07

1,47

7,43

4.4

992,

661.

416

,088

.81,

392.

315

,569

.815

2,38

5.0

807,

225.

519

4,21

4.5

12,2

85.8

3,31

0.5

9,94

8.0

7,90

6.9

3,47

3.1

337.

58,

241.

014

8,71

1.5

2019

/08

1,48

9,45

3.6

1,00

2,71

2.4

18,2

22.6

1,57

0.4

15,3

12.1

155,

116.

181

2,49

1.2

208,

674.

113

,759

.06,

543.

013

,835

.87,

745.

13,

638.

833

2.7

8,09

1.2

154,

728.

6

2019

/09

1,49

5,79

0.7

1,00

4,37

0.4

17,9

49.1

1,56

5.9

15,8

00.9

154,

037.

481

5,01

7.0

205,

423.

913

,288

.269

8.7

12,8

63.3

7,68

5.8

3,75

3.9

329.

78,

273.

115

8,53

1.2

2019

/10

1,50

1,90

9.0

1,00

8,91

7.6

18,2

28.3

1,53

1.8

15,8

20.0

153,

695.

981

9,64

1.6

207,

166.

612

,977

.82,

544.

59,

361.

87,

849.

73,

680.

534

2.1

8,71

5.8

161,

694.

5

2019

/11

1,50

4,29

1.4

1,00

7,66

4.3

18,1

76.8

1,85

3.6

15,2

22.4

150,

757.

182

1,65

4.5

209,

808.

313

,571

.397

2.9

10,1

91.0

7,98

0.6

3,71

5.4

335.

78,

655.

316

4,38

6.2

2019

/12

1,51

2,44

3.5

1,01

8,91

5.1

20,2

50.0

1,79

2.5

15,8

40.7

153,

398.

382

7,63

3.6

209,

523.

213

,646

.482

2.2

8,42

9.9

8,45

5.7

3,87

9.2

335.

98,

185.

216

5,76

8.9

 

Letra

t me

vlerë

ndr

yshm

e ng

a ak

sione

t (1

8+ 1

9)

Hua

të /

Loan

s (2

1+ 2

2+ 2

3+

24+

25+

26+

27)

 D

eriv

atet

fin

anci

are

/ Fi

nanc

ial

deriv

ativ

es

Llog

ari t

ë pa

gues

hme

/ O

ther

ac

coun

ts pa

y-ab

le

Aksio

ne d

he

instr

umen

te të

tje

rë të

kap

italit

/ Sh

ares

and

ot

her e

quity

Korp

orat

a të

tjer

a jo

finan

ciar

e /

O

ther

non

finan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Sek

torë

tjerë

rezi

dent

ë /

Oth

er re

si-de

nt s

ecto

rs

Jore

zide

ntët

/

Non

resid

ents

Bank

a Q

ëndr

ore

/

Cen

tral B

ank

Korp

orat

a të

tjer

a de

pozi

tues

e /

O

ther

dep

osito

ry

corp

orat

ions

Qev

eria

Q

ëndr

ore

/ C

entra

l G

over

nmen

t

Korp

orat

a të

tje

ra fi

nanc

iare

/

Oth

er fi

nanc

ial

corp

orat

ions

Korp

orat

a të

tjer

a jo

finan

ciar

e /

O

ther

non

finan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Sek

torë

tjerë

rezi

dent

ë /

Oth

er re

si-de

nt s

ecto

rs

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

2017

/12

6,25

8.0

160.

36,

097.

769

,800

.123

,962

.539

,875

.52,

774.

752

4.6

2,63

6.1

_26

.7_

74,0

47.9

156,

578.

0

2018

/12

6,18

3.1

164.

46,

018.

759

,518

.421

,105

.832

,318

.62,

882.

437

3.7

2,83

7.8

__

1.8

61,2

25.6

156,

329.

1

2019

/12

6,65

6.0

101.

26,

554.

863

,411

.722

,276

.833

,957

.44,

244.

540

5.7

2,52

7.2

__

0.0

48,3

28.9

165,

608.

7

2019

/07

6,33

1.8

100.

26,

231.

665

,557

.822

,204

.535

,519

.04,

556.

137

9.7

2,89

8.6

__

0.1

57,8

96.3

160,

772.

6

2019

/08

6,35

7.7

100.

66,

257.

155

,945

.222

,282

.325

,748

.12,

608.

538

1.3

4,92

5.0

__

4.6

57,1

96.6

158,

563.

0

2019

/09

6,35

7.2

99.2

6,25

8.0

62,1

70.9

23,1

44.3

32,6

98.3

2,38

0.2

359.

23,

588.

9_

_0.

156

,835

.916

0,63

2.4

2019

/10

6,40

7.1

99.9

6,30

7.2

61,2

02.0

24,0

19.2

30,4

01.9

2,38

8.5

438.

83,

953.

7_

_0.

554

,849

.416

3,36

5.8

2019

/11

6,41

2.7

100.

66,

312.

161

,982

.024

,132

.631

,481

.72,

408.

243

6.3

3,52

3.3

__

0.2

53,3

74.1

165,

049.

7

2019

/12

6,65

6.0

101.

26,

554.

863

,411

.722

,276

.833

,957

.44,

244.

540

5.7

2,52

7.2

__

0.0

48,3

28.9

165,

608.

7

Bur

imi:

Bank

a e

Shqi

përis

ë.

Sour

ce: B

ank

of A

lban

ia.

Page 64: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

64Banka e Shqipërisë

1-4

para

qiT

ja m

on

eTa

re e

ba

nka

ve p

ara

dep

oZi

Tues

en

ë m

ilion

ë le

kë, f

und

periu

dhe

mo

neT

ary

su

rvey

of

dep

osi

T m

on

ey b

an

ks 1

-4in

mill

ions

all

, end

of p

erio

d

 

Mje

tet

valu

tore

net

o /

Net

fore

ign

asse

ts (2

-3)

 

Mje

tet e

br

ends

hme

/

Dom

estic

ass

ets

(5 +

6 +9

+10

+1

1 +1

2 +1

3)

 

Pre

tend

ime

ndaj

jo

rezi

dent

ëve

/ C

laim

s on

no

nres

iden

ts

Min

us:

Det

yrim

e nd

aj

jore

zide

ntëv

e /

Le

ss: L

iabi

lities

to

non

resid

ents

Pre

tend

ime

ndaj

Ba

nkës

Qën

-dr

ore

/ C

laim

s on

Cen

tral B

ank

Pre

tend

imet

net

o nd

aj Q

ever

isë

Qën

dror

e /

Net

cl

aim

s on

Cen

tral

Gov

ernm

ent (

7- 8

)

  P

rete

ndim

e nd

aj k

orpo

-ra

tave

të tj

era

finan

ciar

e /

C

laim

s on

ot

her f

inan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Pre

tend

imet

nd

aj q

ever

isë

loka

le /

C

laim

s on

lo

cal g

over

n-m

ents

Pre

tend

imet

nd

aj k

orpo

rata

ve

jofin

anci

are

publ

ike

/ C

laim

s on

pub

lic

nonf

inan

cial

cor

po-

ratio

ns

Pre

tend

imet

nda

j ko

rpor

atav

e të

tje

ra jo

finan

ciar

e /

Cla

ims

on o

ther

no

nfin

anci

al c

orpo

-ra

tions

Pre

tend

ime

ndaj

se

ktorë

ve të

tjer

ë re

zide

ntë

/ C

laim

s on

oth

er re

siden

t se

ctor

s

Pre

tend

imet

nd

aj Q

ever

isë

Qën

dror

e /

C

laim

s on

Cen

tral

Gov

ernm

ent

Min

us: D

etyr

ime

ndaj

Qev

erisë

Q

ëndr

ore

/ Le

ss:

Liabi

lities

to C

en-

tral G

over

nmen

t

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

2017

/12

309,

764.

335

0,03

7.8

40,2

73.5

1,03

1,99

8.1

156,

294.

433

2,57

2.5

344,

596.

312

,023

.98,

821.

378

7.7

34,9

01.3

329,

377.

016

9,24

4.0

2018

/12

311,

918.

535

0,41

9.2

38,5

00.7

1,03

1,41

9.2

153,

688.

435

3,00

9.5

364,

169.

211

,159

.811

,064

.268

2.6

20,2

70.0

317,

609.

317

5,09

5.2

2019

/12

331,

096.

936

7,02

0.1

35,9

23.2

1,07

4,14

7.2

142,

525.

536

9,90

8.2

381,

253.

411

,345

.214

,545

.256

0.6

24,1

82.4

335,

915.

018

6,51

0.3

2019

/07

324,

377.

235

8,86

7.6

34,4

90.4

1,04

2,68

0.6

140,

297.

335

2,60

0.5

363,

683.

011

,082

.514

,431

.960

9.6

22,7

78.8

330,

029.

918

1,93

2.5

2019

/08

320,

777.

735

6,82

3.6

36,0

45.9

1,05

4,86

0.3

145,

097.

535

7,67

9.4

368,

300.

110

,620

.813

,985

.060

4.1

22,2

23.8

331,

642.

918

3,62

7.8

2019

/09

313,

646.

035

0,07

8.5

36,4

32.5

1,07

1,53

9.4

153,

876.

336

0,68

4.8

371,

834.

611

,149

.914

,188

.059

0.7

22,2

98.8

335,

098.

418

4,80

2.5

2019

/10

323,

446.

036

0,44

3.4

36,9

97.4

1,06

8,99

9.1

143,

182.

536

6,29

9.1

376,

788.

210

,489

.113

,977

.557

9.5

22,8

32.1

335,

849.

218

6,27

9.2

2019

/11

332,

873.

637

0,57

7.7

37,7

04.1

1,05

9,14

8.0

133,

577.

836

6,39

8.3

379,

212.

412

,814

.214

,099

.557

3.9

23,0

73.5

334,

479.

718

6,94

5.3

2019

/12

331,

096.

936

7,02

0.1

35,9

23.2

1,07

4,14

7.2

142,

525.

536

9,90

8.2

381,

253.

411

,345

.214

,545

.256

0.6

24,1

82.4

335,

915.

018

6,51

0.3

 

Det

yrim

e nd

aj

Bank

ës Q

ën-

dror

e /

Liabi

lities

to

Cen

tral B

ank

Dep

ozita

të p

ërfsh

ira

në p

aran

ë e

gjer

ë /

D

epos

its in

clud

ed in

br

oad

mon

ey (1

6+ 1

7)

  D

epoz

ita të

pa

përfs

hira

par

anë

e gj

erë

/

Dep

osits

not

incl

uded

in

broa

d m

oney

Letra

me

vlerë

ndry

shm

e ng

a ak

sione

t / S

ecur

ities

ot

hers

than

sha

res

Hua

të /

Lo

ans

Aksio

ne d

he

instr

umen

te të

tjer

ë të

kap

italit

/ Sh

ares

an

d ot

her e

quity

  D

etyr

ime

të tj

era

neto

/ O

ther

net

lia

biliti

es

Axh

ustim

i i

kons

olid

imit

/ C

on-

solid

atio

n ad

justm

ent

Dep

ozita

trans

feru

eshm

e /

Tr

ansfe

rabl

e de

posit

s D

epoz

ita të

tjer

a /

O

ther

dep

osits

Nga

të c

ilat:

Reze

rva

rivle

resim

i / O

f whi

ch:

Valu

atio

n ad

justm

ent

1415

1617

1819

2021

2223

24

2017

/12

40,9

37.7

991,

609.

036

3,71

0.2

627,

898.

812

6,59

7.0

6,25

8.0

2,66

2.8

156,

578.

0-1

,907

.513

,473

.93,

645.

8

2018

/12

38,3

22.8

981,

771.

837

4,99

6.6

606,

775.

214

8,69

4.4

6,18

3.1

2,83

7.8

156,

329.

1-7

,505

.54,

307.

84,

890.

9

2019

/12

34,7

79.6

1,01

8,91

5.1

408,

677.

661

0,23

7.5

178,

169.

16,

656.

02,

527.

216

5,60

8.7

-5,1

12.5

-6,1

23.3

4,71

1.8

2019

/07

38,8

29.5

992,

661.

439

0,28

6.8

602,

374.

516

0,76

3.2

6,33

1.8

2,89

8.6

160,

772.

6-5

,513

.9-3

27.3

5,12

8.0

2019

/08

32,2

91.1

1,00

2,71

2.4

396,

276.

860

6,43

5.6

166,

791.

36,

357.

74,

925.

015

8,56

3.0

-5,2

68.7

-823

.64,

821.

2

2019

/09

33,3

97.0

1,00

4,37

0.4

395,

967.

660

8,40

2.7

170,

887.

96,

357.

23,

588.

916

0,63

2.4

-4,9

66.2

-144

.06,

095.

6

2019

/10

32,9

46.4

1,00

8,91

7.6

399,

455.

060

9,46

2.6

174,

432.

96,

407.

13,

953.

716

3,36

5.8

-4,3

04.6

-1,9

26.7

4,34

8.3

2019

/11

32,4

54.5

1,00

7,66

4.3

399,

632.

760

8,03

1.6

177,

092.

66,

412.

73,

523.

316

5,04

9.7

-3,8

88.6

-3,8

48.6

3,67

2.9

2019

/12

34,7

79.6

1,01

8,91

5.1

408,

677.

661

0,23

7.5

178,

169.

16,

656.

02,

527.

216

5,60

8.7

-5,1

12.5

-6,1

23.3

4,71

1.8

Burim

i: Ba

nka

e Sh

qipë

risë.

Sour

ce: B

ank

of A

lban

ia.

Page 65: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

65 Banka e Shqipërisë

1-5

bila

nc

i sek

Tori

al

i sh

oq

ëriv

e Të

ku

rsim

-kre

diT

iTn

ë m

ilion

ë le

kë, f

und

periu

dhe

sec

Tora

l ba

lan

ce

shee

T o

f sa

vin

gs

an

d l

oa

n a

sso

cia

Tio

ns

1-5

in m

illio

ns a

ll, e

nd o

f per

iod

 

Tota

li i m

jete

ve

/ To

tal a

sset

s (2

+ 3+

4+

7+

8+ 1

1+ 1

2)

 

Mon

edha

dhe

ka

rtëm

oned

ha n

ë le

kë /

Not

es a

nd

coin

s in

nat

iona

l cu

rrenc

y

Mon

edha

dhe

ka

rtëm

oned

ha n

ë va

lutë

/ N

otes

and

co

ins

in fo

reig

n cu

rrenc

y

Dep

ozita

/

Dep

osits

(5+6

)

 Le

tra m

e vle

/ Se

curit

ies

Hua

të /

Loan

s (9

+10)

 M

jete

të tj

era

/ O

ther

fina

n-ci

al a

sset

s

Mje

te jo

finan

ciar

e /

Non

finan

cial

as

sets

Bank

at p

arad

e-po

zitu

ese

/ D

epos

it m

oney

ban

ks

Kor

pora

tat e

tjer

a fin

anci

are

/ O

ther

fin

anci

al c

orpo

ratio

ns

Sekto

rë të

tjer

ë re

zide

ntë

/ O

ther

re

siden

t sec

tors

Korp

orat

at e

tjer

a jo

finan

c-ia

re /

Oth

er n

onfin

anci

al

corp

orat

ions

12

34

56

78

910

1112

2016

/IV

6,83

0.2

8.1

0.0

938.

265

6.8

281.

415

2.3

5,51

9.8

5,51

9.8

_13

6.7

75.1

2017

/IV

8,44

5.2

6.6

0.1

1,71

5.4

1,21

6.6

498.

815

9.9

6,30

6.1

6,30

6.1

_28

.722

8.3

2018

/IV

9,65

1.1

6.3

0.2

2,00

9.9

1,57

2.5

437.

413

7.0

7,20

1.3

7,20

1.3

_41

.525

4.9

2018

/IV

9,65

1.1

6.3

0.2

2,00

9.89

1,57

2.5

437.

413

7.0

7,20

1.3

7,20

1.3

_41

.525

4.9

2019

/I10

,161

.814

.10.

31,

895.

441,

783.

211

2.2

140.

37,

363.

77,

363.

7_

415.

633

2.5

2019

/II

10,4

35.8

10.4

0.2

1,96

8.58

1,86

4.5

104.

111

4.4

7,56

7.4

7,56

7.4

_13

1.7

643.

2

2019

/III

10,7

91.9

13.8

0.8

2,15

9.72

2,06

3.3

96.4

115.

57,

718.

77,

718.

7_

125.

765

7.8

 

Det

yrim

et to

tale

/

Tota

l lia

biliti

es (2

+ 5+

8+

12+

13)

 

Dep

ozita

të p

ërfsh

ira

në p

aran

ë e

gjer

ë /

Dep

osits

incl

uded

in

bro

ad m

oney

(3

+ 4)

  D

epoz

ita të

pa

përfs

hira

para

në e

gje

rë /

D

epos

its e

xclu

ded

from

bro

ad m

oney

(6

+ 7)

 

Hua

të /

Loan

s (9

+ 10

+ 11

)

 

Det

yrim

e të

tje

ra /

Oth

er

liabi

lities

Aksio

ne d

he

instr

umen

te të

tje

rë të

kap

italit

/ Sh

ares

and

ot

her e

quity

Sekto

rë të

tjer

ë re

zide

ntë

/ O

ther

re

siden

t sec

tors

Korp

orat

at e

tje

ra jo

finan

c-ia

re /

Oth

er

nonf

inan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Sekto

rë të

tjer

ë re

zide

ntë

/

Oth

er re

siden

t se

ctor

s

Korp

orat

at e

tje

ra jo

finan

c-ia

re /

Oth

er

nonf

inan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Korp

orat

at

e tje

ra

finan

ciar

e /

O

ther

fina

ncia

l co

rpor

atio

ns

Bank

at p

arad

e-po

zitu

ese

/

Dep

osit

mon

ey

bank

s

Qev

eria

qën

-dr

ore

/ C

entra

l G

over

nmen

t

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

2016

/IV

6,83

0.2

4,88

4.4

4,88

4.4

_12

3.7

123.

7_

557.

618

2.4

375.

2_

284.

997

9.6

2017

/IV

8,44

5.2

6,16

2.5

6,16

2.5

_11

4.9

114.

9_

761.

3_

761.

3_

141.

51,

264.

9

2018

/IV

9,65

0.9

7,01

9.8

7,01

9.8

_15

2.4

152.

4_

917.

3_

917.

3_

111.

61,

449.

9

2018

/IV

9,65

0.9

7,01

9.8

7,01

9.8

_15

2.4

152.

4_

917.

3_

917.

3_

111.

61,

449.

9

2019

/I10

,161

.87,

350.

37,

350.

3_

147.

814

7.8

_1,

076.

5_

1,07

6.5

_18

2.2

1,40

4.9

2019

/II

10,4

35.8

7,52

5.1

7,52

5.1

_14

7.7

147.

7_

1,14

9.3

_1,

149.

3_

212.

21,

401.

6

2019

/III

10,7

91.9

7,94

8.3

7,94

8.3

_14

0.2

140.

2_

993.

3_

993.

3_

240.

51,

469.

6

Burim

i: Ba

nka

e Sh

qipë

risë.

Sour

ce: B

ank

of A

lban

ia.

Page 66: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

66Banka e Shqipërisë

1-6

para

qiT

ja m

on

eTa

re e

ko

rpo

raTa

ve T

ë Tj

era

dep

oZi

Tues

en

ë m

ilion

ë le

kë, f

und

periu

dhe

mo

neT

ary

su

rvey

of

oTh

er d

epo

siTo

ry c

orp

ora

Tio

ns

1-6

in m

illio

ns a

ll, e

nd o

f per

iod

 

Mje

tet

valu

tore

net

o /

Net

fore

ign

asse

ts (2

-3)

 

Mje

tet e

br

ends

hme

/

Dom

estic

ass

ets

(5+

6+ 9

+ 10

+ 11

+ 12

+ 13

)

 

Pre

tend

ime

ndaj

jo

rezi

dent

ëve

/ C

laim

s on

no

nres

iden

ts

Min

us: D

etyr

ime

ndaj

jore

zide

ntëv

e /

Less

: Lia

biliti

es to

no

nres

iden

ts

Pre

tend

ime

ndaj

Ba

nkës

Qën

-dr

ore

/ C

laim

s on

Cen

tral B

ank

Pre

tend

imet

net

o nd

aj Q

ever

isë

Qën

dror

e /

Net

cl

aim

s on

Cen

tral

Gov

ernm

ent (

7-8)

  P

rete

ndim

e nd

aj

korp

orat

ave

tjera

fina

ncia

re

/ C

laim

s on

ot

her f

inan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Pre

tend

imet

nd

aj q

ever

isë

loka

le /

C

laim

s on

lo

cal g

over

n-m

ent

Pre

tend

imet

nd

aj k

orpo

rata

ve

jofin

anci

are

publ

ike

/ C

laim

s on

pu

blic

non

finan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Pre

tend

imet

nda

j ko

rpor

atav

e të

tje

ra jo

finan

ciar

e /

Cla

ims

on o

th-

er n

onfin

anci

al

corp

orat

ions

Pre

tend

ime

ndaj

sek

torë

ve

të tj

erë

rezi

dent

ë /

C

laim

s on

oth

er

resid

ent s

ecto

rs

Pre

tend

imet

nd

aj Q

ever

isë

Qën

dror

e /

C

laim

s on

Cen

tral

Gov

ernm

ent

Min

us: D

etyr

ime

ndaj

Qev

erisë

Q

ëndr

ore

/ Le

ss:

Liabi

lities

to C

en-

tral G

over

nmen

t

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

2017

/12

309,

764.

435

0,03

7.9

40,2

73.5

1,03

8,96

9.5

156,

301.

133

2,73

2.3

344,

756.

212

,023

.99,

320.

178

7.7

34,9

01.3

329,

377.

017

5,55

0.1

2018

/12

311,

918.

735

0,41

9.4

38,5

00.7

1,03

9,20

1.2

153,

694.

635

3,14

6.5

364,

306.

311

,159

.811

,501

.768

2.6

20,2

70.0

317,

609.

318

2,29

6.5

2019

/12

331,

097.

736

7,02

0.9

35,9

23.2

1,08

2,09

1.5

142,

539.

337

0,02

3.7

381,

368.

911

,345

.214

,641

.656

0.6

24,1

82.4

335,

915.

019

4,22

8.9

2019

/07

324,

377.

435

8,86

7.8

34,4

90.4

1,05

0,47

6.8

140,

307.

735

2,71

4.9

363,

797.

411

,082

.514

,536

.060

9.6

22,7

78.8

330,

029.

918

9,49

9.9

2019

/08

320,

777.

935

6,82

3.8

36,0

45.9

1,06

2,65

6.5

145,

107.

835

7,79

3.8

368,

414.

510

,620

.814

,089

.060

4.1

22,2

23.8

331,

642.

919

1,19

5.2

2019

/09

313,

646.

835

0,07

9.3

36,4

32.5

1,07

9,48

3.7

153,

890.

136

0,80

0.2

371,

950.

111

,149

.914

,284

.459

0.7

22,2

98.8

335,

098.

419

2,52

1.1

2019

/10

323,

446.

836

0,44

4.2

36,9

97.4

1,07

6,94

3.4

143,

196.

336

6,41

4.6

376,

903.

710

,489

.114

,074

.057

9.5

22,8

32.1

335,

849.

219

3,99

7.9

2019

/11

332,

874.

337

0,57

8.5

37,7

04.1

1,06

7,09

2.3

133,

591.

536

6,51

3.7

379,

327.

912

,814

.214

,195

.957

3.9

23,0

73.5

334,

479.

719

4,66

4.0

2019

/12

331,

097.

736

7,02

0.9

35,9

23.2

1,08

2,09

1.5

142,

539.

337

0,02

3.7

381,

368.

911

,345

.214

,641

.656

0.6

24,1

82.4

335,

915.

019

4,22

8.9

 

Det

yrim

e nd

aj B

ankë

s Q

ëndr

ore

/ Lia

biliti

es

to C

entra

l Ban

k

Dep

ozita

të p

ërfsh

ira

në p

aran

ë e

gjer

ë /

D

epos

its in

clud

ed in

br

oad

mon

ey (1

6+

17)

  D

epoz

ita të

pa

përfs

hira

par

anë

e gj

erë

/

Dep

osits

not

incl

uded

in

broa

d m

oney

 

Hua

të /

Loan

s Ak

sione

dhe

instr

u-m

ente

të tj

erë

kapi

talit

/ Sh

ares

an

d ot

her e

quity

  D

etyr

ime

të tj

era

neto

/ O

ther

net

lia

biliti

es

Axh

ustim

i i

kons

olid

imit

/

Con

solid

atio

n ad

justm

ent

Dep

ozita

të tr

ansfe

r-ue

shm

e /

Tran

sfera

ble

depo

sits

Dep

ozita

tjera

/ O

ther

de

posit

s

Letra

me

vlerë

ndry

shm

e ng

a ak

sio-

net /

Sec

uriti

es o

ther

s th

an s

hare

s

Nga

të c

ilat:

Reze

rva

rivle

resim

i /

Of w

hich

: Val

u-at

ion

adju

stmen

t

1415

1617

1819

2021

2223

24

2017

/12

40,9

37.7

997,

771.

436

3,71

0.2

634,

061.

312

6,71

1.9

6,25

8.0

2,66

2.8

157,

843.

0-1

,907

.513

,358

.43,

190.

5

2018

/12

38,3

22.8

988,

791.

537

4,99

6.6

613,

794.

914

8,84

6.8

6,18

3.1

2,83

7.8

157,

779.

0-7

,505

.54,

123.

04,

235.

7

2019

/12

34,7

79.6

1,02

6,86

3.3

408,

677.

661

8,18

5.8

178,

309.

36,

656.

02,

527.

216

7,07

8.3

-5,1

12.5

-6,6

66.3

3,64

1.8

2019

/07

38,8

29.5

1,00

0,18

6.4

390,

286.

860

9,89

9.6

160,

910.

96,

331.

82,

898.

616

2,17

4.2

-5,5

13.9

-890

.04,

412.

8

2019

/08

32,2

91.1

1,01

0,23

7.4

396,

276.

861

3,96

0.7

166,

939.

06,

357.

74,

925.

015

9,96

4.5

-5,2

68.7

-1,3

86.2

4,10

6.0

2019

/09

33,3

97.0

1,01

2,31

8.6

395,

967.

661

6,35

1.0

171,

028.

16,

357.

23,

588.

916

2,10

2.0

-4,9

66.2

-687

.05,

025.

6

2019

/10

32,9

46.4

1,01

6,86

5.8

399,

455.

061

7,41

0.8

174,

573.

16,

407.

13,

953.

716

4,83

5.4

-4,3

04.6

-2,4

69.7

3,27

8.3

2019

/11

32,4

54.5

1,01

5,61

2.6

399,

632.

761

5,97

9.9

177,

232.

96,

412.

73,

523.

316

6,51

9.3

-3,8

88.6

-4,3

91.7

2,60

2.9

2019

/12

34,7

79.6

1,02

6,86

3.3

408,

677.

661

8,18

5.8

178,

309.

36,

656.

02,

527.

216

7,07

8.3

-5,1

12.5

-6,6

66.3

3,64

1.8

Burim

i: Ba

nka

e Sh

qipë

risë.

Sour

ce: B

ank

of A

lban

ia.

Page 67: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

67 Banka e Shqipërisë

1-7

para

qiT

ja m

on

eTa

re e

ko

rpo

raTa

ve d

epo

ZiTu

ese

mili

onë

lekë

, fun

d pe

riudh

em

on

eTa

ry s

urv

ey o

f d

epo

siTo

ry c

orp

ora

Tio

ns

1-7

in m

illio

ns a

ll, e

nd o

f per

iod

 

Mje

tet v

alut

ore

neto

/ N

et

fore

ign

asse

ts (2

- 3)

 

Mje

tet e

br

ends

hme

/ D

omes

tic

asse

ts (5

+8)

 

Pre

ten-

dim

e nd

aj

jore

zide

ntëv

e /

Cla

ims

on

nonr

esid

ents

Min

us:

Det

yrim

e nd

aj

jore

zide

ntëv

e /

Le

ss: L

iabi

lities

to

non

resid

ents

Pre

tend

imet

net

o nd

aj Q

ever

isë

Qën

dror

e /

Net

cl

aim

s on

Cen

tral

Gov

ernm

ent (

6- 7

)

  P

rete

ndim

e nd

aj s

ekto

rëve

tjer

ë /

C

laim

s on

oth

er

sect

ors

(9+

10+

11+

12+

13)

 

Pre

tend

imet

nd

aj Q

ever

isë

Qën

dror

e /

C

laim

s on

Cen

-tra

l Gov

ernm

ent

Min

us: D

etyr

ime

ndaj

Qev

erisë

Q

ëndr

ore

/ Le

ss:

Liabi

lities

to C

entra

l G

over

nmen

t

Pre

tend

ime

ndaj

ko

rpor

atav

e të

tjer

a fin

anci

are

/ C

laim

s on

oth

er fi

nanc

ial

corp

orat

ions

Pre

tend

imet

nd

aj q

ever

isë

loka

le /

C

laim

s on

loca

l go

vern

men

t

Pre

tend

imet

nda

j kor

-po

rata

ve jo

finan

ciar

e pu

blik

e /

Cla

ims

on

publ

ic n

onfin

anci

al

corp

orat

ions

Pre

tend

imet

nda

j ko

rpor

atav

e të

tjer

a jo

finan

ciar

e /

Cla

ims

on o

ther

non

finan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Pre

tend

ime

ndaj

se

ktorë

ve të

tje

rë re

zide

ntë

/

Cla

ims

on o

ther

re

siden

t sec

tors

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

2017

/12

700,

451.

976

7,64

3.3

67,1

91.4

902,

795.

235

1,13

9.1

397,

595.

746

,456

.755

1,65

6.2

9,32

0.1

787.

734

,901

.332

9,37

7.0

177,

270.

1

2018

/12

724,

363.

278

6,90

7.1

62,5

44.0

874,

968.

034

0,78

0.7

419,

935.

279

,154

.553

4,18

7.3

11,5

01.7

682.

620

,270

.031

7,60

9.3

184,

123.

7

2019

/12

733,

113.

679

4,00

5.6

60,8

92.0

950,

184.

437

8,51

4.1

436,

575.

258

,061

.057

1,67

0.3

14,6

41.6

560.

624

,182

.433

5,91

5.0

196,

370.

7

2019

/07

709,

051.

176

8,42

2.7

59,3

71.6

922,

594.

036

3,06

6.7

420,

791.

357

,724

.655

9,52

7.3

14,5

36.0

609.

622

,778

.833

0,02

9.9

191,

573.

0

2019

/08

725,

305.

778

6,25

4.1

60,9

48.4

929,

801.

136

7,97

0.5

425,

008.

357

,037

.856

1,83

0.6

14,0

89.0

604.

122

,223

.833

1,64

2.9

193,

270.

8

2019

/09

727,

419.

678

8,55

0.2

61,1

30.5

933,

062.

536

6,19

0.5

428,

628.

562

,438

.156

6,87

2.0

14,2

84.4

590.

722

,298

.833

5,09

8.4

194,

599.

8

2019

/10

729,

299.

379

1,05

4.1

61,7

54.8

938,

874.

236

9,42

3.6

432,

615.

763

,192

.256

9,45

0.7

14,0

74.0

579.

522

,832

.133

5,84

9.2

196,

116.

0

2019

/11

729,

646.

879

1,80

3.5

62,1

56.7

941,

254.

737

2,11

6.0

434,

646.

662

,530

.656

9,13

8.7

14,1

95.9

573.

923

,073

.533

4,48

1.2

196,

814.

2

2019

/12

733,

113.

679

4,00

5.6

60,8

92.0

950,

184.

437

8,51

4.1

436,

575.

258

,061

.057

1,67

0.3

14,6

41.6

560.

624

,182

.433

5,91

5.0

196,

370.

7

 

Det

yrim

et e

pa

rasë

gjer

ë /

Broa

d m

oney

lia

biliti

es (1

5+

16)

 

Dep

ozita

pa p

ërfsh

ira n

ë pa

ranë

e g

jerë

/

Dep

osits

exc

lude

d fro

m b

road

mon

ey

Letra

me

vlerë

ndr

yshm

e ng

a ak

sione

t /

Secu

ritie

s ot

hers

th

an s

hare

s

Hua

të /

Lo

ans

Lloga

ri të

pa

gues

hme

/

Oth

er a

ccou

nts

paya

ble

Aksio

ne d

he in

stru-

men

te të

tjer

ë të

ka

pita

lit /

Shar

es

and

othe

r equ

ity

 

Det

yrim

e të

tje

ra n

eto

/

Oth

er li

abili

ties

net

Axh

ustim

i i k

onso

li-di

mit

/ C

onso

lida-

tion

adju

stmen

t

Par

aja

jash

korp

orat

ave

depo

zitu

ese

/

Mon

ey o

utsid

e de

posit

ory

corp

orat

ions

Dep

ozita

të p

ërfsh

i-ra

para

në e

gje

/ D

epos

its in

clud

ed

in b

road

mon

ey

(17+

18)

Nga

te c

ilat:

reze

rva

rivle

resim

i /

Of w

hich

: val

u-at

ion

adju

stmen

t D

epoz

ita të

tra

nsfe

rues

hme

/

Tran

sfera

ble

depo

sits

Dep

ozita

tjera

/ O

ther

de

posit

s

1415

1617

1819

2021

2223

2425

26

2017

/12

1,26

6,93

4.7

265,

264.

11,

001,

670.

636

3,75

4.4

637,

916.

212

6,85

8.6

6,25

8.0

2,66

2.8

96.8

203,

725.

111

,497

.4-4

,134

.384

5.2

2018

/12

1,26

4,12

7.4

275,

285.

398

8,84

2.1

375,

047.

261

3,79

4.9

148,

927.

56,

183.

12,

837.

828

5.4

188,

867.

6-6

,265

.5-1

2,30

0.4

402.

5

2019

/12

1,31

8,36

9.7

291,

404.

21,

026,

965.

540

8,77

9.8

618,

185.

817

8,38

1.9

6,65

6.0

2,52

7.2

229.

520

0,20

4.5

-2,6

51.7

-23,

799.

472

8.7

2019

/07

1,28

3,84

1.6

283,

595.

61,

000,

246.

139

0,34

6.5

609,

899.

616

0,99

0.7

6,33

1.8

2,89

8.6

33.8

194,

102.

4-4

,004

.8-1

7,29

0.9

737.

1

2019

/08

1,29

8,67

5.5

288,

378.

41,

010,

297.

139

6,33

6.4

613,

960.

716

7,01

4.1

6,35

7.7

4,92

5.0

197.

019

5,71

7.0

-244

.1-1

8,09

7.8

318.

4

2019

/09

1,29

6,62

4.0

284,

245.

71,

012,

378.

339

6,02

7.3

616,

351.

017

1,10

2.0

6,35

7.2

3,58

8.9

211.

119

8,31

9.4

456.

6-1

6,49

8.1

777.

7

2019

/10

1,30

0,45

3.8

283,

482.

11,

016,

971.

739

9,56

0.9

617,

410.

817

4,64

7.1

6,40

7.1

3,95

3.7

99.3

202,

081.

72,

118.

2-1

9,98

1.3

512.

0

2019

/11

1,30

2,98

1.7

286,

585.

01,

016,

396.

740

0,41

6.9

615,

979.

917

7,30

7.0

6,41

2.7

3,52

3.3

158.

520

2,89

6.2

1,71

8.5

-22,

561.

318

3.3

2019

/12

1,31

8,36

9.7

291,

404.

21,

026,

965.

540

8,77

9.8

618,

185.

817

8,38

1.9

6,65

6.0

2,52

7.2

229.

520

0,20

4.5

-2,6

51.7

-23,

799.

472

8.7

Burim

i: Ba

nka

e Sh

qipë

risë.

Sou

rce:

Ban

k of

Alb

ania

.

Page 68: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

68Banka e Shqipërisë

1-8.

a a

gre

gaT

ëT m

on

eTa

rë d

he

përb

ërës

iT e

Tyr

e m

on

eTa

ry a

gg

reg

aTes

an

d T

hei

r c

om

pon

enTs

1-8

.a

 M

3 (2

+7)

 

M2

(3+6

)

 

Dep

ozita

t në

valu

të /

Dep

osits

in fo

reig

n cu

rrenc

yM

1 (4

+5)

 D

epoz

itat m

e af

at n

ë le

kë /

Tim

e de

posit

s in

nat

iona

l cur

renc

yPa

raja

jash

të k

orpo

rata

ve d

epoz

itues

e /

Cur

renc

y ou

tside

dep

osito

ry c

orpo

ratio

nsLlo

gari

rrjed

hëse

dhe

dep

ozita

t pa

afat

lekë

/ C

urre

nt

acco

unts

and

non-

term

dep

osits

in n

atio

nal c

urre

ncy

12

34

56

7

 G

jend

ja n

ë fu

nd të

per

iudh

ës (n

ë m

ilion

ë Le

kë) /

Sto

ck a

t end

of p

erio

d (in

milli

ons

ALL)

2017

/12

1,26

6,93

4.7

738,

927.

946

1,57

7.9

265,

264.

119

6,31

3.9

277,

349.

952

8,00

6.9

2018

/12

1,26

4,12

7.4

731,

502.

147

8,72

1.5

275,

285.

320

3,43

6.2

252,

780.

653

2,62

5.3

2019

/12

1,31

8,36

9.7

757,

786.

252

3,96

3.4

291,

404.

223

2,55

9.3

233,

822.

856

0,58

3.5

2019

/07

1,28

3,84

1.6

745,

775.

350

4,38

5.7

283,

595.

622

0,79

0.2

241,

389.

553

8,06

6.4

2019

/08

1,29

8,67

5.5

744,

567.

850

7,03

9.3

288,

378.

421

8,66

0.8

237,

528.

555

4,10

7.7

2019

/09

1,29

6,62

4.0

740,

792.

850

4,74

3.3

284,

245.

722

0,49

7.7

236,

049.

555

5,83

1.2

2019

/10

1,30

0,45

3.8

741,

191.

150

7,36

9.5

283,

482.

122

3,88

7.4

233,

821.

655

9,26

2.7

2019

/11

1,30

2,98

1.7

746,

624.

751

3,76

5.4

286,

585.

022

7,18

0.3

232,

859.

455

6,35

7.0

2019

/12

1,31

8,36

9.7

757,

786.

252

3,96

3.4

291,

404.

223

2,55

9.3

233,

822.

856

0,58

3.5

  N

drys

him

i vje

tor n

ë pë

rqin

dje

/ An

nual

per

cent

age

chan

ges

2017

/12

0.3

0.3

6.0

6.4

5.5

-8.0

0.3

2018

/12

-0.2

-1.0

3.7

3.8

3.6

-8.9

0.9

2019

/12

4.3

3.6

9.5

5.9

14.3

-7.5

5.2

2019

/07

3.6

2.8

8.7

7.6

10.1

-7.6

4.6

2019

/08

3.8

2.8

8.2

6.9

9.9

-7.1

5.1

2019

/09

3.3

2.4

7.6

5.8

10.1

-7.1

4.6

2019

/10

4.1

3.3

9.2

6.8

12.4

-7.5

5.3

2019

/11

4.5

3.7

10.1

7.1

14.1

-8.1

5.6

2019

/12

4.3

3.6

9.5

5.9

14.3

-7.5

5.2

Burim

i :Ba

nka

e Sh

qipë

risë.

Sour

ce: B

ank

of A

lban

ia.

Page 69: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

69 Banka e Shqipërisë

1-8.

b ku

nd

ërpa

rTiT

ë e

ag

reg

aTëv

e m

on

eTa

rë c

ou

nTe

rpa

rTs

of

mo

neT

ary

ag

gre

gaT

es 1

-8.b

  M

jete

t val

utor

e ne

to /

Net

For

eign

As

sets

Mje

tet e

bre

ndsh

me

/ D

omes

tic a

sset

s (3

+4)

 

tjera

net

o /

Oth

er it

ems

net

Pre

tend

imet

nda

j Qev

erisë

Qën

dror

e ne

to /

Net

cl

aim

s on

Cen

tral G

over

nmen

t Pr

eten

dim

e nd

aj s

ekto

rëve

të tj

erë*

/ C

laim

s on

oth

er

sect

ors

*

1

2

3

4

5

  G

jend

ja n

ë fu

nd të

per

iudh

ës (m

ilion

ë Le

kë)/

Sto

ck a

t end

of p

erio

d (in

milli

ons

ALL)

2017

/12

700,

451.

990

2,79

5.2

351,

139.

155

1,65

6.2

(4,1

34.3

)

2018

/12

724,

363.

287

4,96

8.0

340,

780.

753

4,18

7.3

(12,

300.

4)

2019

/12

733,

113.

695

0,18

4.4

378,

514.

157

1,67

0.3

(23,

799.

4)

2019

/07

709,

051.

192

2,59

4.0

363,

066.

755

9,52

7.3

(17,

290.

9)

2019

/08

725,

305.

792

9,80

1.1

367,

970.

556

1,83

0.6

(18,

097.

8)

2019

/09

727,

419.

693

3,06

2.5

366,

190.

556

6,87

2.0

(16,

498.

1)

2019

/10

729,

299.

393

8,87

4.2

369,

423.

656

9,45

0.7

(19,

981.

3)

2019

/11

729,

646.

894

1,25

4.7

372,

116.

056

9,13

8.7

(22,

561.

3)

2019

/12

733,

113.

695

0,18

4.4

378,

514.

157

1,67

0.3

(23,

799.

4)

 

Ndr

yshi

mi v

jeto

r në

përq

indj

e /

Annu

al p

erce

ntag

e ch

ange

s

Mje

tet v

alut

ore

neto

/ N

et fo

reig

n as

sets

Mje

tet e

bre

ndsh

me

/ D

omes

tic a

sset

s P

rete

ndim

et n

daj Q

ever

isë Q

ëndr

ore

neto

/ N

et c

laim

s on

Cen

tral G

over

nmen

t Pr

eten

dim

e nd

aj s

ekto

rëve

të tj

erë*

/ C

laim

s on

oth

er s

ecto

rs *

1

2

3

4

2017

/12

0.5

-0.3

-1.6

0.6

2018

/12

3.4

-3.1

-2.9

-3.2

2019

/12

1.2

8.6

11.1

7.0

2019

/07

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

2019

/08

3.1

5.0

5.7

4.5

2019

/09

2.9

4.7

4.3

5.0

2019

/10

-1.2

10.1

16.0

6.6

2019

/11

-0.4

9.5

15.0

6.1

2019

/12

1.2

8.6

11.1

7.0

Bur

imi:

Bank

a e

Shqi

përis

ë *

Përfs

hin

kred

inë

për e

kono

min

ë dh

e pr

eten

dim

e të

tjer

a nd

aj s

ekto

rëve

mba

jtës

së p

aras

ë së

gje

rë.

Sour

ce: B

ank

of A

lban

ia.

* In

clud

e cr

edit

to e

cono

my

and

othe

r cla

ims

on b

road

mon

ey h

oldi

ng s

ecto

rs.

Page 70: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

70Banka e Shqipërisë

1-9

dep

oZi

TaT

lekë

sip

as

sekT

orë

ve*

mili

onë

lekë

, fun

d pe

riudh

ele

k d

eno

min

aTed

dep

osi

Ts b

y se

cTo

rs*

1-9

in m

illio

ns a

ll, e

nd o

f per

iod

 

Tota

li i

depo

zita

ve /

To

tal d

epos

its

(2+

8)

 

Llog

ari r

rjedh

ëse

dhe

depo

zita

pa

afat

/ C

urre

nt

acco

unt a

nd s

ight

de

posit

s (3

+ 4+

5+

6+ 7

)

  D

epoz

itat m

e af

at /

Tim

e de

posit

s (9

+ 10

+ 11

+ 12

+ 13

)

 

Qev

eria

lo

kale

/ Lo

cal

gove

rnm

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Korp

orat

at jo

finan

-ci

are

publ

ike

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onfin

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corp

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nanc

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ciar

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non

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cial

co

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atio

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Sekto

rë të

tjer

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zide

ntë

/

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siden

t se

ctor

s

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eria

lo

kale

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cal

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tjer

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ther

non

finan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

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rë të

tjer

ë re

zide

ntë

/

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er re

siden

t se

ctor

s

1

2 3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1011

1213

2017

/12

473,

663.

819

6,31

3.9

1,34

4.4

8,65

6.7

2,52

4.8

48,9

79.3

134,

808.

727

7,34

9.9

15.2

705.

29,

282.

19,

062.

425

8,28

5.1

2018

/12

456,

216.

820

3,43

6.2

1,48

2.1

8,86

1.1

2,58

6.8

49,2

21.4

141,

284.

925

2,78

0.6

13.1

1,63

4.7

5,05

0.5

9,68

7.0

236,

395.

4

2019

/12

466,

382.

123

2,55

9.3

1,62

4.5

10,7

86.4

3,78

0.6

51,9

72.3

164,

395.

523

3,82

2.8

10.1

709.

24,

146.

77,

977.

522

0,97

9.3

2019

/07

462,

179.

722

0,79

0.2

1,17

8.6

10,1

89.6

3,24

6.6

52,1

48.8

154,

026.

524

1,38

9.5

10.0

1,78

0.3

3,81

6.3

7,98

6.5

227,

796.

4

2019

/08

456,

189.

421

8,66

0.8

1,34

1.6

10,9

17.4

3,54

5.2

50,4

70.1

152,

386.

523

7,52

8.5

10.0

737.

94,

404.

78,

186.

422

4,18

9.5

2019

/09

456,

547.

222

0,49

7.7

1,29

3.9

11,3

17.1

3,53

5.6

51,0

39.6

153,

311.

423

6,04

9.5

10.1

738.

33,

992.

08,

085.

122

3,22

4.0

2019

/10

457,

709.

022

3,88

7.4

1,37

9.0

11,6

11.4

3,44

4.9

51,4

67.6

155,

984.

523

3,82

1.6

10.1

722.

13,

963.

97,

113.

022

2,01

2.5

2019

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460,

039.

722

7,18

0.3

1,69

5.8

11,0

55.3

4,40

4.7

50,5

26.9

159,

497.

723

2,85

9.4

10.1

721.

34,

016.

97,

292.

222

0,81

8.9

2019

/12

466,

382.

123

2,55

9.3

1,62

4.5

10,7

86.4

3,78

0.6

51,9

72.3

164,

395.

523

3,82

2.8

10.1

709.

24,

146.

77,

977.

522

0,97

9.3

1-10

dep

oZi

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Të s

ipa

s se

kTo

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ë m

ilion

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kë, f

und

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ign

cu

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cy

den

om

inaT

ed d

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siTs

by

sec

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* 1-

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rnm

ent

Korp

orat

at jo

finan

-ci

are

publ

ike

/

Publ

ic n

onfin

anci

al

corp

orat

ions

Kor

pora

ta të

tje

ra fi

nanc

iare

/

Oth

er fi

nanc

ial

corp

orat

ions

Korp

orat

a të

tjer

a jo

finan

ciar

e /

O

ther

non

finan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Sekto

rë të

tjer

ë re

zide

ntë

/

Oth

er re

siden

t se

ctor

s

1

2 3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1011

1213

2017

/12

528,

006.

926

7,41

3.0

139.

82,

086.

33,

756.

974

,187

.318

7,24

2.7

260,

593.

8_

1,54

3.8

3,33

6.9

10,2

97.9

245,

415.

2

2018

/12

532,

625.

328

9,23

2.7

113.

41,

407.

73,

616.

578

,055

.320

6,03

9.8

243,

392.

6_

1,69

6.3

3,59

8.1

11,8

13.8

226,

284.

5

2019

/12

560,

583.

532

4,65

8.7

157.

92,

823.

35,

360.

381

,786

.923

4,53

0.3

235,

924.

8_

1,52

1.8

7,05

7.6

11,6

61.7

215,

683.

8

2019

/07

538,

066.

430

0,30

1.3

203.

71,

945.

44,

525.

880

,388

.021

3,23

8.5

237,

765.

1_

1,65

4.4

4,50

1.4

11,8

61.7

219,

747.

5

2019

/08

554,

107.

731

5,18

3.2

218.

72,

045.

35,

093.

484

,482

.922

3,34

2.9

238,

924.

6_

1,61

1.5

5,18

0.7

11,9

76.7

220,

155.

7

2019

/09

555,

831.

231

5,93

3.8

261.

92,

130.

24,

664.

282

,238

.922

6,63

8.7

239,

897.

4_

1,61

5.4

5,75

8.6

12,6

73.8

219,

849.

6

2019

/10

559,

262.

731

9,81

6.8

142.

71,

864.

04,

986.

482

,664

.923

0,15

8.8

239,

446.

0_

1,62

2.5

5,83

4.3

12,4

50.4

219,

538.

8

2019

/11

556,

357.

031

8,91

0.0

147.

81,

830.

04,

701.

680

,630

.323

1,60

0.3

237,

447.

0_

1,61

5.7

5,78

0.8

12,3

07.6

217,

743.

0

2019

/12

560,

583.

532

4,65

8.7

157.

92,

823.

35,

360.

381

,786

.923

4,53

0.3

235,

924.

8_

1,52

1.8

7,05

7.6

11,6

61.7

215,

683.

8

Bur

imi:

Bank

a e

Shqi

përis

ë *

Për

fshih

en v

etëm

llog

aritë

dhe

dep

ozita

t që

janë

pje

së e

par

asë

së g

jerë

. So

urce

: Ban

k of

Alb

ania

* D

epos

its in

clud

ed in

bro

ad m

oney

.

Page 71: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

71 Banka e Shqipërisë

1-11

kre

dia

për

eko

no

min

ë si

pas

sekT

ori

T *

mili

onë

lekë

, fun

d pe

riudh

ec

red

iT T

o e

co

no

my

by s

ecTo

r *

1-11

in m

illio

ns a

ll, e

nd o

f per

iod

 

Tota

li i k

redi

/ To

tal c

redi

t (2

+ 8)

 

Kred

ia n

ë le

kë /

Cre

dit

in n

atio

nal

curre

ncy

(3+

4+ 5

+ 6+

7)

 Kr

edia

valu

të /

C

redi

t in

fore

ign

curre

ncy

(9+

10+

11+

12+1

3)

 

Qev

eria

lo

kale

/ Lo

cal

gove

rnm

ent

Korp

orat

at jo

finan

-ci

are

publ

ike

/

Publ

ic n

onfin

anci

al

corp

orat

ions

Korp

orat

a të

tjer

a jo

finan

ciar

e /

O

ther

non

finan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Korp

orat

a të

tje

ra fi

nanc

iare

/

Oth

er fi

nanc

ial

corp

orat

ions

Sekto

rë të

tjer

ë re

zide

ntë

/

Oth

er re

siden

t se

ctor

s

Qev

eria

lo

kale

/ Lo

cal

gove

rnm

ent

Korp

orat

at jo

finan

-ci

are

publ

ike

/

Publ

ic n

onfin

anci

al

corp

orat

ions

Korp

orat

a të

tjer

a jo

finan

ciar

e /

O

ther

non

finan

cial

co

rpor

atio

ns

Korp

orat

a të

tjer

a fin

anci

are

/ O

ther

fin

anci

al c

orpo

-ra

tions

Sekto

rë të

tjer

ë re

zide

ntë

/

Oth

er re

siden

t se

ctor

s

12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

2017

/12

550,

280.

527

3,26

1.9

787.

729

,680

.013

0,85

1.8

3,52

2.3

108,

420.

127

7,01

8.6

_5,

221.

419

8,52

5.2

4,42

2.3

68,8

49.7

2018

/12

532,

818.

626

8,75

3.0

682.

616

,594

.112

7,73

9.6

4,80

2.1

118,

934.

626

4,06

5.6

_3,

675.

918

9,83

8.8

5,36

1.9

65,1

89.0

2019

/12

570,

553.

029

8,48

4.6

560.

618

,489

.714

1,24

0.5

8,02

3.8

130,

170.

027

2,06

8.3

_5,

692.

719

4,64

4.1

5,53

1.3

66,2

00.3

2019

/07

557,

408.

428

4,41

4.2

609.

618

,370

.513

2,53

1.9

6,34

3.1

126,

559.

227

2,99

4.2

_4,

408.

419

7,46

7.5

6,10

5.0

65,0

13.4

2019

/08

560,

764.

828

5,67

8.6

604.

117

,954

.313

2,84

0.9

6,94

1.7

127,

337.

627

5,08

6.2

_4,

269.

419

8,77

1.3

6,11

2.9

65,9

32.6

2019

/09

565,

777.

128

9,57

6.2

590.

718

,122

.513

5,19

4.6

6,88

2.9

128,

785.

527

6,20

0.9

_4,

176.

319

9,87

3.0

6,33

9.7

65,8

11.9

2019

/10

568,

354.

629

2,52

6.8

579.

518

,284

.213

7,30

8.2

6,78

0.5

129,

574.

427

5,82

7.8

_4,

547.

919

8,50

9.7

6,23

0.3

66,5

40.0

2019

/11

568,

025.

629

4,21

3.5

573.

918

,748

.413

7,44

0.3

7,35

2.5

130,

098.

527

3,81

2.1

_4,

325.

219

7,00

8.3

5,76

5.5

66,7

13.2

2019

/12

570,

553.

029

8,48

4.6

560.

618

,489

.714

1,24

0.5

8,02

3.8

130,

170.

027

2,06

8.3

_5,

692.

719

4,64

4.1

5,53

1.3

66,2

00.3

Bur

imi:

Bank

a e

Shqi

përis

ë.

* K

redi

a dh

ënë

nga

korp

orat

at d

epoz

itues

e (B

anka

Qën

dror

e, b

anka

t par

adep

ozitu

ese

dhe

shoq

ëritë

e k

ursim

-kred

itit).

So

urce

: Ban

k of

Alb

ania

. *

Cre

dit g

rant

ed b

y de

posit

ory

corp

orat

ions

(Cen

tral b

ank,

dep

osit

mon

ey b

anks

and

sav

ings

and

loan

ass

ocia

tions

).

Page 72: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

72Banka e Shqipërisë

1-12

hu

aTë

e ko

rpo

raTa

ve jo

fin

an

cia

re s

ipa

s a

kTiv

iTeT

iT e

kon

om

ik

(nve

- re

v.2)

*n

ë m

ilion

ë le

kë, f

und

periu

dhe

loa

ns

of

no

n-f

ina

nc

ial

co

rpo

raTi

on

s by

ec

on

om

ic a

cTi

viTy

(na

ce

- re

v.2)

* 1

-12

in m

illio

ns a

ll, e

nd o

f per

iod

 

Tota

li i h

uave

për

kor

pora

tat

jofin

anci

are

/ To

tal l

oans

to

non-

finan

cial

cor

pora

tions

(2

+ 3+

4+

5+ 6

+ 7+

8+

9+ 1

0+ 1

1+ 1

2+ 1

3+

14+

15+

16+

17+

18+

19+

20+

21+

22)

Bujq

ësia

, Pyj

et, P

e-sh

kim

i / A

gric

ultu

re,

fore

stry

and

fishi

ng

Indu

stria

nxj

er-

rëse

/ M

inin

g an

d qu

arry

ing

Indu

stria

rpun

uese

/

Man

ufac

-tu

ring

Ener

gjia

ele

ktrik

e, fu

rniz

imi

me

gaz,

avu

ll dh

e aj

ër i

kond

icio

nuar

/ E

lect

ricity

, ga

s, s

team

and

air

cond

i-tio

ning

sup

ply

Furn

izim

i me

ujë,

akti

vite

te të

tra-

jtim

it dh

e m

enax

him

it të

mbe

turi-

nave

, mbe

tjeve

/ W

ater

sup

ply;

se

wer

age,

was

te m

anag

emen

t an

d re

med

iatio

n ac

tiviti

es

Ndë

rtim

i /

Con

struc

tion

Tre

gtia

me

shum

icë

dhe

me

paki

cë; R

ipar

imi i

aut

omje

teve

dh

e m

otoç

ikle

tave

/ W

hole

sale

an

d re

tail

trade

; rep

air o

f mot

or

vehi

cles

and

mot

orcy

cles

Tran

spor

ti dh

e m

agaz

inim

i /

Tran

spor

tatio

n an

d sto

rage

Akom

odim

i dhe

sh

ërbi

mi u

shqi

mor

/

Acco

mm

oda-

tion

and

food

se

rvic

e ac

tiviti

es

Info

rmac

ioni

dh

e ko

mu-

nika

cion

i /

Info

rmat

ion

and

com

mun

icat

ion

12

34

56

78

910

11

2017

/12

364,

278.

35,

360.

07,

725.

954

,119

.652

,664

.823

4.6

46,3

68.6

119,

800.

17,

806.

313

,550

.53,

872.

0

2018

/12

337,

848.

45,

643.

58,

542.

951

,063

.936

,604

.824

1.6

45,6

59.5

118,

490.

15,

824.

013

,713

.53,

119.

4

2019

/12

360,

067.

05,

068.

210

,159

.648

,381

.047

,413

.526

5.0

45,3

03.9

119,

654.

39,

525.

016

,148

.94,

136.

2

2019

/07

352,

778.

24,

634.

09,

858.

148

,579

.645

,361

.927

1.8

46,3

48.1

121,

768.

57,

142.

014

,875

.73,

319.

3

2019

/08

353,

836.

04,

868.

310

,304

.251

,557

.342

,772

.326

3.4

46,5

94.1

121,

475.

06,

878.

414

,930

.83,

199.

0

2019

/09

357,

366.

34,

919.

610

,135

.148

,833

.946

,289

.925

6.7

46,9

18.2

122,

013.

67,

587.

815

,045

.64,

446.

1

2019

/10

358,

650.

04,

888.

29,

819.

248

,999

.246

,683

.525

4.6

47,0

95.6

120,

927.

19,

244.

915

,305

.74,

429.

9

2019

/11

357,

522.

14,

872.

79,

865.

948

,691

.946

,176

.225

1.2

46,3

60.9

119,

983.

19,

146.

115

,683

.84,

317.

9

2019

/12

360,

067.

05,

068.

210

,159

.648

,381

.047

,413

.526

5.0

45,3

03.9

119,

654.

39,

525.

016

,148

.94,

136.

2

 

Aktiv

itete

fina

nc-

iare

dhe

të s

ig-

urim

it /

Fina

ncia

l an

d in

sura

nce

activ

ities

Aktiv

itete

të p

asur

-iv

e të

pal

uajtë

shm

e /

Real

esta

te

activ

ities

Aktiv

itete

pro

fesio

-na

le, s

hken

core

dhe

te

knik

e /

Prof

essio

n-al

, sci

entif

ic a

nd

tech

nica

l act

iviti

es

Shër

bim

e ad

min

istra

-tiv

e dh

e m

bësh

tetë

se

/ Ad

min

istra

tive

and

supp

ort s

ervi

ce

activ

ities

Adm

inist

rimi p

ublik

dhe

m

broj

tja; S

igur

imi s

ocia

l i

dety

rues

hëm

/ P

ublic

ad-

min

istra

tion

and

defe

nce;

co

mpu

lsory

soc

ial s

ecur

ity

Arsim

i /

Educ

atio

n

Shën

detë

sia d

he

aktiv

itete

të p

unës

so

cial

e /

Hum

an

heal

th a

nd s

ocia

l w

ork

activ

ities

Arte

, arg

ëtim

dhe

çl

odhj

e /

Arts,

en

terta

inm

ent a

nd

recr

eatio

n

Aktiv

itete

tjera

shë

rbim

i /

Oth

er s

er-

vice

act

iviti

es

Aktiv

itete

të fa

milj

eve

si pu

nëdh

ënës

; Ak

tivite

te të

pro

dhim

it të

mal

lrave

e

shër

bim

eve

të fa

milj

eve

për p

ërd.

e

vet /

Act

iviti

es o

f hou

seho

lds

as

empl

oyer

s; u

ndiff

eren

tiate

d go

ods-

and

serv

ices

-pro

duci

ng a

ctiv

ities

of

Hh

for o

wn

use

Aktiv

itete

orga

niza

tave

dh

e or

gani

zmav

e nd

ërko

mbë

tare

/

Activ

ities

of e

xtra

ter-

ritor

ial o

rgan

isatio

ns

and

bodi

es

 12

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2017

/12

2,77

9.0

4,17

8.1

823.

539

0.9

1,65

9.6

5,68

5.1

3,76

5.9

2,99

2.4

28,1

33.6

2,11

8.1

249.

7

2018

/12

2,82

3.6

5,44

9.6

1,44

8.8

2,47

5.2

3,33

3.8

5,56

9.5

4,02

5.3

1,14

7.7

21,2

14.0

1,27

5.2

182.

9

2019

/12

2,42

4.4

5,28

1.0

1,51

0.1

3,12

5.0

3,88

9.5

4,26

5.1

4,71

6.1

866.

927

,093

.483

9.8

0.3

2019

/07

2,81

6.1

4,99

2.4

2,23

6.9

2,55

7.5

3,90

1.3

5,09

9.1

4,05

7.0

962.

723

,263

.471

6.0

16.7

2019

/08

2,51

3.3

5,06

4.9

1,56

0.0

2,74

8.0

3,88

6.6

5,16

0.5

3,99

5.0

903.

724

,252

.190

4.1

4.9

2019

/09

2,53

2.7

5,20

1.6

1,55

1.7

2,67

3.2

3,70

2.4

5,03

8.7

3,94

9.0

938.

524

,426

.390

0.4

5.4

2019

/10

2,50

4.0

5,24

2.4

1,53

4.9

2,66

3.6

3,88

8.7

4,66

7.2

3,66

5.5

936.

125

,024

.987

1.2

3.8

2019

/11

2,48

7.9

5,29

1.6

1,51

1.1

3,05

5.2

4,15

7.8

4,63

4.9

3,70

4.5

910.

525

,543

.687

1.6

3.7

2019

/12

2,42

4.4

5,28

1.0

1,51

0.1

3,12

5.0

3,88

9.5

4,26

5.1

4,71

6.1

866.

927

,093

.483

9.8

0.3

Bur

imi:

Bank

a e

Shqi

përis

ë.

* T

ë dh

ënat

e h

uave

për

fshijn

ë in

tere

sat e

për

lloga

ritur

. So

urce

: Ban

k of

Alb

ania

.*

Dat

a on

loan

s in

clud

e ac

crue

d in

tere

sts.

Page 73: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

73 Banka e Shqipërisë

1-13

a h

uaT

ë e

korp

ora

Tave

jofi

na

nc

iare

pri

vaTe

sip

as

qël

limiT

përd

ori

miT

d

he

mo

ned

hës

*n

ë m

ilion

ë le

kë, f

und

periu

dhe

priv

aTe

no

n-f

ina

nc

ial

co

rpo

raTi

on

s lo

an

s by

pu

rpo

se a

nd

c

urr

enc

y* 1

-13a

in m

illio

ns a

ll, e

nd o

f per

iod

 

Hua

të p

ër k

orpo

rata

t jof

inan

ciar

e pr

ivat

e /

Priv

ate

non-

finan

cial

cor

po-

ratio

ns lo

ans

(2+

9+ 1

6+ 2

3)N

ë le

kë /

In A

LL (3

+ 4+

5+

6+ 7

+ 8)

Ovë

rdra

ft /

Ove

rdra

ftKa

pita

l qar

kullu

es /

Wor

king

ca

pita

lH

ua p

ër ç

elje

biz

nesi

/

Loan

s fo

r sta

rting

up

a bu

sines

sBl

erje

paj

isjes

h /

Mac

hin-

erie

s an

d ap

plia

nces

Pa

suri

të p

alua

jtshm

e /

Real

es

tate

Hua

për

inve

stim

e në

instr

umen

-ta

fina

ncia

re /

Loan

s fo

r inv

est-

men

ts in

fina

ncia

l ins

trum

ents

12

34

56

78

2017

/12

329,

377.

013

0,85

1.8

34,3

89.0

29,0

91.1

4,75

9.9

34,1

79.6

28,2

01.3

231.

0

2018

/12

317,

578.

412

7,73

9.6

36,3

19.8

27,2

53.6

6,62

6.7

31,3

40.4

26,0

02.8

196.

3

2019

/12

335,

884.

614

1,24

0.5

38,6

68.9

29,4

20.3

7,19

7.1

36,3

69.9

29,4

14.4

169.

8

2019

/07

329,

999.

413

2,53

1.9

37,7

51.0

27,2

66.8

6,42

6.1

34,9

65.4

25,9

45.2

177.

4

2019

/08

331,

612.

213

2,84

0.9

38,0

48.8

27,6

38.5

7,02

0.6

33,6

88.9

26,2

69.7

174.

4

2019

/09

335,

067.

513

5,19

4.6

37,8

83.9

28,0

51.3

7,25

0.1

33,6

51.9

28,1

84.1

173.

2

2019

/10

335,

817.

913

7,30

8.2

37,4

67.4

28,1

24.1

7,20

2.2

34,2

26.7

30,1

15.7

172.

1

2019

/11

334,

448.

613

7,44

0.2

37,7

86.1

28,3

46.9

7,25

1.5

34,1

41.5

29,7

43.3

170.

9

2019

/12

335,

884.

614

1,24

0.5

38,6

68.9

29,4

20.3

7,19

7.1

36,3

69.9

29,4

14.4

169.

8

 N

ë do

llarë

am

erik

anë

/ In

USD

(10+

11

+ 12

+ 13

+ 14

+ 15

)O

vërd

raft

/ O

verd

raft

Kapi

tal q

arku

llues

/ W

orki

ng

capi

tal

Hua

për

çel

je b

izne

si /

Loan

s fo

r sta

rting

up

a bu

sines

sBl

erje

paj

isjes

h /

Mac

hin-

erie

s an

d ap

plia

nces

Pa

suri

të p

alua

jtshm

e /

Re

al e

state

Hua

për

inve

stim

e në

instr

umen

ta fi

nanc

iare

/ Lo

ans

for i

nves

tmen

ts in

fina

ncia

l ins

trum

ents

910

1112

1314

15

2017

/12

20,4

29.0

10,2

00.7

3,28

3.5

_3,

536.

83,

408.

0_

2018

/12

19,8

33.8

9,96

2.7

3,48

5.1

_3,

407.

02,

979.

0_

2019

/12

17,3

79.5

7,57

5.9

5,06

8.4

_2,

045.

02,

690.

2_

2019

/07

18,9

71.3

9,66

7.7

3,29

3.0

_3,

229.

42,

781.

2_

2019

/08

20,4

41.1

8,51

0.2

6,07

8.7

_2,

690.

43,

161.

9_

2019

/09

20,4

90.0

8,44

2.6

6,25

0.0

_2,

655.

93,

141.

5_

2019

/10

19,0

22.2

7,40

8.8

5,93

5.7

_2,

597.

43,

080.

2_

2019

/11

19,4

19.6

8,06

4.9

6,02

6.1

_2,

175.

63,

153.

1_

2019

/12

17,3

79.5

7,57

5.9

5,06

8.4

_2,

045.

02,

690.

2_

 N

ë eu

ro /

In E

UR

(17+

18+

19+

20

+ 21

+ 22

)H

ua n

ë m

oned

ha të

tjer

a /

In

othe

r cur

renc

ies

Ovë

rdra

ft /

Ove

rdra

ftKa

pita

l qar

kullu

es /

Wor

king

ca

pita

lH

ua p

ër ç

elje

biz

nesi

/ Lo

ans

for s

tarti

ng u

p a

busin

ess

Bler

je p

ajisj

esh

/ M

achi

n-er

ies

and

appl

ianc

es

Pasu

ri të

pal

uajts

hme

/

Real

esta

teH

ua p

ër in

vesti

me

në in

strum

en-

ta fi

nanc

iare

/ Lo

ans

for i

nves

t-m

ents

in fi

nanc

ial i

nstru

men

ts

1617

1819

2021

2223

2017

/12

178,

095.

046

,703

.019

,315

.91,

462.

159

,303

.851

,154

.915

5.2

1.2

2018

/12

170,

004.

936

,575

.228

,513

.22,

328.

450

,075

.652

,335

.917

6.5

0.2

2019

/12

177,

264.

438

,571

.927

,956

.12,

573.

049

,930

.257

,754

.147

9.2

0.2

2019

/07

178,

496.

138

,174

.328

,845

.72,

600.

651

,724

.156

,722

.542

8.9

0.2

2019

/08

178,

330.

038

,156

.028

,726

.22,

606.

551

,826

.956

,592

.342

2.0

0.2

2019

/09

179,

382.

738

,290

.128

,942

.02,

605.

451

,935

.357

,203

.540

6.3

0.2

2019

/10

179,

487.

439

,506

.828

,281

.12,

612.

651

,215

.957

,465

.140

5.8

0.2

2019

/11

177,

588.

638

,697

.628

,570

.52,

595.

850

,191

.357

,133

.440

0.0

0.2

2019

/12

177,

264.

438

,571

.927

,956

.12,

573.

049

,930

.257

,754

.147

9.2

0.2

Bur

imi:

Bank

a e

Shqi

përis

ë.

* T

ë dh

ënat

e h

uave

për

fshijn

ë in

tere

sat e

për

lloga

ritur

. So

urce

: Ban

k of

Alb

ania

.*

Dat

a on

loan

s in

clud

e ac

crue

d in

tere

sts.

Page 74: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

74Banka e Shqipërisë

1-13

b h

uaT

ë e

korp

ora

Tave

jofi

na

nc

iare

pu

blik

e si

pas

qël

limiT

përd

ori

miT

dh

e m

on

edh

ës *

mili

onë

lekë

, fun

d pe

riudh

e

publ

ic n

on

-fin

an

cia

l c

orp

ora

Tio

ns

loa

ns

by p

urp

ose

an

d c

urr

enc

y *

1-13

bin

mill

ions

all

, end

of p

erio

d

 

Hua

të p

ër k

orpo

rata

t jof

inan

ciar

e pu

blik

e /

Pu

blic

non

-fina

ncia

l cor

pora

tions

loan

s (2

+ 8+

14+

20)

lekë

/ In

ALL

(3+

4+ 5

+ 6+

7)

Ovë

rdra

ft /

Ove

rdra

ftKa

pita

l qar

kullu

es /

Wor

king

ca

pita

lBl

erje

paj

isjes

h /

Mac

hine

ries

and

appl

ianc

es

Pasu

ri të

pal

uajts

hme

/ Re

al e

state

Hua

të tj

era

/ O

ther

loan

s

12

34

56

7

2017

/12

34,9

01.3

29,6

80.0

27,2

29.8

287.

790

1.8

1,26

0.6

0.0

2018

/12

20,2

70.1

16,5

94.2

14,5

21.4

236.

969

4.9

1,14

1.1

_

2019

/12

24,1

82.4

18,4

89.8

16,5

67.6

182.

674

3.0

996.

6_

2019

/07

22,7

78.8

18,3

70.5

16,5

28.4

213.

857

1.9

1,05

6.4

_

2019

/08

22,2

23.8

17,9

54.3

16,1

45.0

209.

055

5.9

1,04

4.5

_

2019

/09

22,2

98.8

18,1

22.5

16,3

49.5

201.

753

8.9

1,03

2.4

_

2019

/10

22,8

32.1

18,2

84.2

16,5

49.5

194.

452

0.0

1,02

0.4

_

2019

/11

23,0

73.5

18,7

48.4

16,7

85.0

195.

175

9.8

1,00

8.5

_

2019

/12

24,1

82.4

18,4

89.8

16,5

67.6

182.

674

3.0

996.

6_

 N

ë do

llarë

am

erik

anë

/ In

USD

(9+

10+

11+

12+

13)

Ovë

rdra

ft /

Ove

rdra

ftKa

pita

l qar

kullu

es /

Wor

king

ca

pita

lBl

erje

paj

isjes

h /

Mac

hine

r-ie

s an

d ap

plia

nces

Pa

suri

të p

alua

jtshm

e /

Real

esta

teH

ua të

tjer

a /

O

ther

loan

s

89

1011

1213

2017

/12

0.1

0.1

__

_0.

0

2018

/12

0.1

0.1

__

__

2019

/12

0.0

0.0

__

__

2019

/07

0.1

0.1

__

__

2019

/08

0.1

0.1

__

__

2019

/09

0.1

0.1

__

__

2019

/10

0.1

0.1

__

__

2019

/11

0.1

0.1

__

__

2019

/12

0.0

0.0

__

__

 N

ë eu

ro /

In E

UR

(15+

16+

17+

18+

19)

Ovë

rdra

ft /

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rdra

ftKa

pita

l qar

kullu

es /

Wor

king

ca

pita

lBl

erje

paj

isjes

h /

Mac

hine

r-ie

s an

d ap

plia

nces

Pa

suri

të p

alua

jtshm

e /

Real

esta

teH

ua të

tjer

a /

Oth

er lo

ans

Hua

mon

edha

të tj

era

/ In

oth

er

curre

ncie

s

1415

1617

1819

20

2017

/12

5,22

1.3

5,22

1.2

__

_0.

0_

2018

/12

3,67

5.9

3,67

5.9

__

__

_

2019

/12

5,69

2.6

5,69

2.6

  

  

 

2019

/07

4,40

8.3

4,40

8.3

__

__

_

2019

/08

4,26

9.4

4,26

9.4

__

__

_

2019

/09

4,17

6.2

4,17

6.2

__

__

_

2019

/10

4,54

7.8

4,54

7.8

__

__

_

2019

/11

4,32

5.1

4,32

5.1

__

__

_

2019

/12

5,69

2.6

5,69

2.6

  

  

 

Bur

imi:

Bank

a e

Shqi

përis

ë.

* T

ë dh

ënat

e h

uave

për

fshijn

ë in

tere

sat e

për

lloga

ritur

. So

urce

: Ban

k of

Alb

ania

.*

Dat

a on

loan

s in

clud

e ac

crue

d in

tere

sts.

Page 75: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

75 Banka e Shqipërisë

1-14

hu

aTë

e in

div

idëv

e d

he

insT

iTu

cio

nev

e jo

me

qël

lim f

iTim

i që

u

shër

bejn

ë in

div

idëv

e si

pas

qël

limiT

përd

ori

miT

dh

e m

on

edh

ës*

mili

onë

lekë

, fun

d pe

riudh

e

ho

use

ho

lds

+ n

on

-pro

fiT

insT

iTu

Tio

ns

serv

ing

ho

use

ho

lds

loa

ns

by

purp

ose

an

d c

urr

enc

y* 1

-14

in m

illio

ns a

ll, e

nd o

f per

iod

 

Hua

të p

ër In

divi

dët d

he

Insti

tuci

onet

jo m

e që

llim fi

timi q

ë u

shër

bejn

ë in

divi

dëve

/ H

ouse

-ho

lds

+ N

on-p

rofit

insti

tutio

ns

serv

ing

hous

ehol

ds lo

ans

(2+

9+

16+

23)

lekë

/ In

ALL

(3+

4+ 5

+ 6+

7)

Ovë

rdra

ft /

Ove

rdra

ftM

allra

jo të

qën

drue

shëm

/

Non

dura

ble

good

sM

allra

të q

ëndr

uesh

ëm /

D

urab

le g

oods

Hua

për

ble

rje b

anes

ash

/ Lo

ans

for h

ouse

pu

rcha

seH

ua p

ër q

ëllim

e të

tjer

a /

Loan

s fo

r oth

er p

urpo

ses

nga

të c

ilat:

për t

ë ve

tëpu

nësu

arit

/ of

w

hich

: sol

e pr

oprie

tors

hips

; par

tner

-sh

ips

with

out l

egal

sta

tus

12

34

56

78

2017

/12

169,

243.

910

0,39

4.2

6,41

7.5

22,9

55.8

14,3

22.4

50,5

54.6

6,14

3.9

2,48

1.3

2018

/12

175,

095.

110

9,90

6.1

6,74

2.5

27,0

31.9

13,1

29.5

56,1

05.2

6,89

7.0

2,40

3.7

2019

/12

186,

510.

212

0,31

0.0

6,51

1.6

29,3

42.1

14,2

92.2

62,7

06.7

7,45

7.3

1,55

4.3

2019

/07

181,

932.

611

6,91

9.1

6,77

7.9

28,8

36.2

13,7

05.0

60,1

44.4

7,45

5.8

2,05

1.2

2019

/08

183,

627.

811

7,69

5.3

6,72

3.9

28,8

81.4

14,0

48.3

60,6

63.1

7,37

8.6

1,68

1.1

2019

/09

184,

802.

511

8,99

0.5

6,80

7.9

29,1

45.8

13,9

34.4

61,4

90.1

7,61

2.4

1,65

5.8

2019

/10

186,

279.

211

9,73

9.3

6,77

5.8

29,3

41.6

14,0

65.4

62,0

56.8

7,49

9.6

1,62

9.3

2019

/11

186,

945.

312

0,23

2.1

6,69

3.9

29,4

14.8

14,1

71.4

62,5

21.9

7,43

0.2

1,56

1.4

2019

/12

186,

510.

212

0,31

0.0

6,51

1.6

29,3

42.1

14,2

92.2

62,7

06.7

7,45

7.3

1,55

4.3

 N

ë do

llarë

am

erik

anë

/ In

USD

(1

0+ 1

1+ 1

2+ 1

3+ 1

4)ng

a të

cila

t: pë

r të

vetë

punë

suar

it /

of w

hich

: sol

e pr

oprie

tors

hips

; par

tner

-sh

ips

with

out l

egal

sta

tus

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rdra

ft /

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rdra

ftM

allra

jo të

qën

drue

shëm

/

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dura

ble

good

sM

allra

të q

ëndr

uesh

ëm /

D

urab

le g

oods

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për

ble

rje b

anes

ash

/

Loan

s fo

r hou

se p

urch

ase

Hua

për

qël

lime

të tj

era

/

Loan

s fo

r oth

er p

urpo

ses

 9

1011

1213

1415

2017

/12

741.

816

2.7

74.9

103.

434

2.7

58.1

38.1

2018

/12

484.

747

.750

.218

.331

7.2

51.4

32.4

2019

/12

471.

811

3.2

47.3

25.6

239.

246

.5_

2019

/07

426.

632

.247

.917

.227

0.1

59.3

30.8

2019

/08

448.

126

.950

.667

.927

9.9

22.9

_

2019

/09

421.

738

.952

.228

.425

3.8

48.4

_

2019

/10

485.

279

.749

.227

.828

1.3

47.2

_

2019

/11

505.

810

0.1

49.2

27.8

281.

747

.0_

2019

/12

471.

811

3.2

47.3

25.6

239.

246

.5_

  

euro

/ In

EU

R (1

7+ 1

8+

19+

20+

21)

Ovë

rdra

ft /

Ove

rdra

ftM

allra

jo të

qën

drue

shëm

/

Non

dura

ble

good

sM

allra

të q

ëndr

uesh

ëm /

D

urab

le g

oods

Hua

për

ble

rje b

anes

ash

/

Loan

s fo

r hou

se p

urch

ase

Hua

për

qël

lime

të tj

era

/

Loan

s fo

r oth

er p

urpo

ses

nga

të c

ilat:

për t

ë ve

tëpu

nësu

arit

/ of

whi

ch: s

ole

prop

rieto

rshi

ps;

partn

ersh

ips

with

out l

egal

sta

tus

Hua

mon

edha

të tj

era

/ In

oth

er

curre

ncie

s

 16

1718

1920

2122

23

2017

/12

67,8

93.0

797.

21,

854.

34,

539.

256

,869

.53,

832.

860

8.7

214.

9

2018

/12

64,5

33.3

1,03

2.5

1,74

9.0

4,46

4.9

52,8

67.4

4,41

9.5

649.

017

1.0

2019

/12

65,5

80.0

913.

31,

862.

44,

472.

153

,703

.44,

628.

952

3.6

148.

5

2019

/07

64,4

27.2

976.

61,

789.

14,

570.

052

,448

.84,

642.

761

2.5

159.

6

2019

/08

65,3

24.8

990.

31,

847.

95,

109.

553

,000

.84,

376.

355

5.1

159.

7

2019

/09

65,2

31.1

972.

51,

878.

84,

476.

453

,074

.34,

829.

154

0.4

159.

2

2019

/10

65,8

99.3

935.

01,

898.

44,

524.

453

,819

.34,

722.

354

2.8

155.

4

2019

/11

66,0

53.9

938.

91,

866.

54,

515.

554

,073

.64,

659.

553

8.0

153.

4

2019

/12

65,5

80.0

913.

31,

862.

44,

472.

153

,703

.44,

628.

952

3.6

148.

5

Bur

imi:

Bank

a e

Shqi

përis

ë.

* T

ë dh

ënat

e h

uave

për

fshijn

ë in

tere

sat e

për

lloga

ritur

. So

urce

: Ban

k of

Alb

ania

.*

Dat

a on

loan

s in

clud

e ac

crue

d in

tere

sts.

Page 76: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

76Banka e Shqipërisë

1-15

hu

aTë

sipa

s rr

eTh

eve*

mili

onë

lekë

, fun

d pe

riudh

elo

an

s by

dis

Tric

Ts*

1-15

in m

illio

ns a

ll, e

nd o

f per

iod

 To

tali

i kre

disë

/ T

otal

loan

s (2

+ 3+

4+

5+

6+ 7

+ 8+

9+

10)

 

Tira

në /

Tira

na

Dur

rës

/ D

urrë

s E

lbas

an /

Elb

asan

S

hkod

ër /

Shk

odra

K

orçë

/ K

orca

V

lorë

/ V

lora

F

ier /

Fie

r Le

zhë

/ Le

zha

tjera

/ O

ther

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2017

/IV

547,

154.

140

6,41

2.0

37,1

59.1

14,2

80.8

11,3

08.1

8,16

8.5

11,8

69.5

12,0

27.4

5,89

8.8

40,0

29.9

2018

/IV

531,

084.

738

8,83

1.9

39,9

85.0

13,7

96.4

10,6

54.4

8,01

4.9

11,7

23.6

10,6

56.0

5,86

6.4

41,5

56.2

2019

/IV

567,

129.

842

4,39

9.1

37,6

45.3

12,5

51.1

10,9

56.2

8,63

5.2

12,1

64.8

10,7

15.7

6,09

5.7

43,9

66.7

2019

/I54

6,77

6.2

403,

908.

740

,130

.113

,337

.810

,571

.67,

923.

412

,005

.110

,705

.85,

958.

542

,235

.2

2019

/II

551,

140.

540

8,99

0.2

38,1

06.6

13,0

01.7

10,6

93.6

8,12

0.9

12,1

46.1

10,8

05.2

6,08

1.9

43,1

94.5

2019

/III

563,

054.

041

9,06

2.2

39,3

73.5

13,0

95.0

10,8

04.7

8,36

9.1

12,0

98.6

10,7

43.4

6,10

1.2

43,4

06.5

2019

/IV

567,

129.

842

4,39

9.1

37,6

45.3

12,5

51.1

10,9

56.2

8,63

5.2

12,1

64.8

10,7

15.7

6,09

5.7

43,9

66.7

Bur

imi:

Bank

a e

Shqi

përis

ë.

* T

ë dh

ënat

e h

uasë

për

fshijn

ë in

tere

sat e

për

lloga

ritur

. S

ourc

e: B

ank

of A

lban

ia.

* D

ata

on lo

ans

incl

ude

accr

ued

inte

rests

.

Page 77: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

77 Banka e Shqipërisë

1-16 normaT e inTeresiT Të bankës së shqipërisë*në përqindje

bank of albania inTeresT raTes* 1-16in percentage

 

Depozita njëditore / Overnight deposit

Marrëveshje riblerjeje njëjavore / Weekly repurchase agreement

Kredia njëditore / Overnight credit

Kredia për mbështetje me likuid-itet** / Liquidity supporting loan**

Vlera / Level Ndryshimi / Change Vlera / Level Ndryshimi /

Change Vlera / Level Ndryshimi / Change Vlera / Level Ndryshimi /

Change

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2004 29/ 04 3.25 0.00 6.25 0.00 8.75 0.00 12.25 0.00

  12/ 05 3.00 -0.25 6.00 -0.25 8.50 -0.25 12.00 -0.25

  24/ 06 2.75 -0.25 5.75 -0.25 8.25 -0.25 11.75 -0.25

  28/ 07 2.50 -0.25 5.50 -0.25 8.00 -0.25 11.50 -0.25

  04/ 11 2.25 -0.25 5.25 -0.25 7.75 -0.25 11.25 -0.25

2005 31/ 03 2.00 -0.25 5.00 -0.25 7.50 -0.25 11.00 -0.25

  27/ 07 3.25 1.25 5.00 0.00 6.75 -0.75 11.00 0.00

2006 12/ 07 3.50 0.25 5.25 0.25 7.00 0.25 11.25 0.25

  30/ 11 3.75 0.25 5.50 0.25 7.25 0.25 11.50 0.25

2007 28/ 06 4.00 0.25 5.75 0.25 7.50 0.25 11.75 0.25

  27/ 09 4.25 0.25 6.00 0.25 7.75 0.25 12.00 0.25

  30/ 11 4.50 0.25 6.25 0.25 8.00 0.25 12.25 0.25

2008 24/ 12 4.50 0.00 6.25 0.00 7.00 -1.00 12.25 0.00

2009 28/ 01 4.50 0.00 6.25 0.00 7.00 0.00 12.25 0.00

  29/ 01 4.00 -0.50 5.75 -0.50 6.50 -0.50 11.75 -0.50

  28/ 10 3.50 -0.50 5.25 -0.50 6.00 -0.50 11.25 -0.50

2010 29/ 07 3.25 -0.25 5.00 -0.25 5.75 -0.25 11.00 -0.25

2011 03/ 01 3.25 0.00 5.00 0.00 6.75 1.00 11.00 0.00

  24/ 03 3.50 0.25 5.25 0.25 7.00 0.25 11.25 0.25

  30/ 09 3.25 -0.25 5.00 -0.25 6.75 -0.25 11.00 -0.25

  01/ 12 3.00 -0.25 4.75 -0.25 6.50 -0.25 10.75 -0.25

2012 26/ 01 2.75 -0.25 4.50 -0.25 6.25 -0.25 10.50 -0.25

  29/ 03 2.50 -0.25 4.25 -0.25 6.00 -0.25 10.25 -0.25

  10/ 05 2.50 0.00 4.25 0.00 6.00 0.00 8.25 -0.20

  25/ 07 2.25 -0.25 4.00 -0.25 5.75 -0.25 8.00 -0.25

2013 31/01 2.00 -0.25 3.75 -0.25 5.50 -0.25 7.75 -0.25

  01/08 1.75 -0.25 3.50 -0.25 5.25 -0.25 7.50 -0.25

  02/12 1.50 -0.25 3.25 -0.25 5.00 -0.25 7.25 -0.25

  16/12 1.25 -0.25 3.00 -0.25 4.75 -0.25 7.00 -0.25

2014 27/02 1.00 -0.25 2.75 -0.25 4.50 -0.25 6.75 -0.25

  02/06 0.75 -0.25 2.50 -0.25 4.25 -0.25 6.50 -0.25

  27/11 0.50 -0.25 2.25 -0.25 4.00 -0.25 6.25 -0.25

2015 29/01 0.25 -0.25 2.00 -0.25 3.75 -0.25 6.00 -0.25

  05/11 0.00 -0.25 1.75 -0.25 3.50 -0.25 5.75 -0.25

2016 06/04 0.25 0.25 1.50 -0.25 2.75 -0.75 5.50 -0.25

  05/05 0.25 0.00 1.25 -0.25 2.25 -0.50 5.25 -0.25

2018 06/06 0.10 -0.15 1.00 -0.25 1.90 -0.35 5.00 -0.25

Burimi: Banka e Shqipërisë. *Tabela paraqet ndryshimin e normave bazë të interesit sipas vendimit të politikës monetare.** Me hyrjen në fuqi të vendimit nr. 16 datë 13.03.2012, për miratimin e rregullores “Për kredinë për mbështetje me likuiditet”, instrumenti “Kredia Lombard” u pasua nga “Kredia për mbështetje me likuiditet”.

Source: Bank of Albania.* The table presents the change of key interest rates according to the monetary policy

decisions on interest rates.** Upon the entry into force of Decision No. 16, dated 13 March 2012, on the

approval of the Regulation “On the liquidity supporting loan”, the instrument “Lombard Loan” followed by the “Liquidity supporting loan”.

Page 78: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

78Banka e Shqipërisë

1-17

no

rmaT

e in

Tere

siT

për

dep

oZi

TaT

e re

ja T

ë ko

rpo

raTa

ve jo

-fin

an

cia

re,

ind

ivid

ëve

dh

e in

sTiT

uc

ion

eve

jo m

e q

ëllim

fiT

imi q

ë u

sh

ërbe

jnë

ind

ivid

ëve

sipa

s m

on

edh

ave

*n

ë pë

rqin

dje

inTe

resT

raT

es o

n n

ew d

epo

siTs

of

no

n-f

ina

nc

ial

co

rpo

raTi

on

s, h

ou

seh

old

s a

nd

npi

sh b

y c

urr

enc

y *

1-17

in p

erce

ntag

e

 N

ë le

kë /

In A

LL

Lloga

ri rrj

edhë

se /

Cur

rent

acc

ount

sD

epoz

ita p

a af

at /

Dem

and

depo

sits

1 m

ujor

e /

1 m

onth

s3

muj

ore

/ 3

mon

ths

6 m

ujor

e /

6 m

onth

s12

muj

ore

/ 12

mon

ths

24 m

ujor

e /

24 m

onth

s

2017

0.10

0.28

0.86

0.28

0.65

0.75

1.48

2018

0.09

0.26

0.76

0.28

0.59

0.73

1.55

2019

0.10

0.24

0.66

0.23

0.42

0.49

1.13

2019

/07

0.10

0.20

0.73

0.20

0.26

0.40

1.13

2019

/08

0.10

0.22

0.44

0.23

0.23

0.36

1.16

2019

/09

0.09

0.19

0.76

0.18

0.29

0.45

1.14

2019

/10

0.10

0.23

0.73

0.43

0.35

0.44

1.08

2019

/11

0.10

0.24

0.65

0.13

0.58

0.53

0.96

2019

/12

0.10

0.27

0.72

0.17

0.41

0.43

0.98

  N

ë do

llarë

am

erik

anë

/ In

USD

2017

0.01

0.13

0.23

0.12

0.29

0.39

0.83

2018

0.01

0.15

0.44

0.18

0.31

0.54

0.86

2019

0.01

0.14

0.31

0.22

0.35

0.76

1.47

2019

/07

0.01

0.09

0.30

0.21

0.21

0.92

1.69

2019

/08

0.01

0.11

0.24

0.35

0.32

0.75

1.65

2019

/09

0.01

0.13

0.25

0.17

0.45

0.82

1.55

2019

/10

0.01

0.14

0.32

0.19

0.17

0.53

1.14

2019

/11

0.01

0.12

0.13

0.37

0.18

0.45

0.66

2019

/12

0.01

0.14

0.27

0.31

0.23

0.59

0.93

  N

ë Eu

ro /

In E

UR

2017

0.04

0.07

0.13

0.05

0.09

0.15

0.44

2018

0.02

0.06

0.06

0.05

0.07

0.12

0.36

2019

0.01

0.05

0.06

0.05

0.05

0.09

0.24

2019

/07

0.01

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.09

0.21

2019

/08

0.02

0.04

0.11

0.05

0.05

0.08

0.25

2019

/09

0.02

0.05

0.12

0.06

0.05

0.10

0.34

2019

/10

0.01

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.04

0.08

0.16

2019

/11

0.01

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.03

0.15

0.10

2019

/12

0.01

0.06

0.05

0.06

0.05

0.10

0.10

Bur

imi:

Bank

a e

Shqi

përis

ë.

* N

orm

at v

jeto

re p

ërfa

qëso

jnë

norm

at m

esat

are

të p

onde

ruar

a vj

etor

e, n

dërs

a no

rmat

muj

ore

përfa

qëso

jnë

norm

at m

esat

are

të p

onde

ruar

a m

ujor

e.

Sour

ce: B

ank

of A

lban

ia.

* Ye

arly

dat

a pr

esen

t the

ann

ual w

eigh

ted

aver

age

rate

, whi

le th

e m

onth

ly d

ata

pres

ent t

he m

onth

ly w

eigh

ted

aver

age

rate

.

Page 79: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

79 Banka e Shqipërisë

1-18 normaT e inTeresiT për huaTë e reja Të korporaTave jo-financiare, individëve dhe insTiTucioneve jo me qëllim fiTimi që u shërbejnë individëve sipas monedhave*në përqindje

inTeresT raTes on new loans of non-financial corporaTions, households and

npish by currency* 1-18in percentage

  Në lekë / In ALL

Deri në 6 muaj / Up to 6 months 6 muaj - 1 vit / 6 months - 1 year 1-3 vjet / 1-3 years 3 - 5 vjet / 3 - 5 years Mbi 5 vjet / Over 5 years

2017 8.18 5.98 7.77 7.64 5.90

2018 8.12 5.66 7.45 7.28 5.66

2019 7.07 6.25 6.82 7.12 5.59

2019/07 6.31 6.25 6.40 6.89 5.67

2019/08 7.69 5.73 6.78 7.39 5.67

2019/09 7.00 6.75 6.70 7.40 5.01

2019/10 5.94 6.62 5.84 7.55 5.44

2019/11 7.02 6.43 6.96 8.20 5.37

2019/12 6.34 6.82 6.26 6.80 6.30

  Në dollarë amerikanë / In USD

2017 5.09 5.92 5.04 4.91 6.59

2018 5.51 5.30 5.03 5.56 4.42

2019 4.14 4.82 4.46 4.72 6.25

2019/07 3.51 5.12 4.41 _ _

2019/08 5.37 3.40 4.33 5.50 _

2019/09 3.54 4.13 7.14 _ 5.50

2019/10 3.56 5.10 1.70 _ _

2019/11 3.95 5.36 5.58 _ 6.97

2019/12 4.01 3.80 7.20 4.09 _

  Në Euro / In EUR

2017 4.54 4.28 4.25 4.53 4.40

2018 3.96 4.01 4.36 4.58 4.09

2019 4.76 4.02 4.30 4.50 3.92

2019/07 4.71 3.80 3.79 4.37 3.87

2019/08 4.54 4.52 4.25 4.34 3.47

2019/09 5.10 4.03 4.07 4.15 3.36

2019/10 4.22 4.70 4.65 4.71 3.99

2019/11 4.79 4.55 4.24 4.47 3.58

2019/12 4.56 3.46 4.98 4.68 4.43

Burimi: Banka e Shqipërisë. * Normat vjetore përfaqësojnë normat mesatare të ponderuara vjetore, ndërsa normat mujore përfaqësojnë normat mesatare të ponderuara mujore.

Source: Bank of Albania.* Yearly data present the annual weighted average rate, while the monthly data present

the monthly weighted average rate.

Page 80: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

80Banka e Shqipërisë

1-18a normaT e inTeresiT për huaTë e reja Të korporaTave jofinanciare privaTe sipas qëllimiT Të përdorimiT dhe monedhës *në përqindje

inTeresT raTes on new loans of privaTe non-financial corporaTions by purpose and

currency * 1-18ain percentage

 

Norma e interesit e huave të reja për korporata jofinanciare

private / Average monthly inter-est rates of new loans to private

non-financial corporations Ovërdraft /

OverdraftKapital qarkullues /

Working capital

Hua për çelje biznesi / Loans for starting up a

business

Blerje pajisjesh / Machineries and

appliances Pasuri të paluajtshme

/ Real estate

Hua për investime në instrumenta financiare / Loans for investments in

financial instruments

    Në lekë / In ALL  

2017 6.63 6.99 6.50 6.87 5.77 5.55 5.80

2018 6.71 7.21 6.14 6.99 5.70 4.95 _

2019 6.26 6.48 6.37 6.14 6.33 4.88  

2019/07 5.89 5.78 5.81 7.00 6.93 4.62 _

2019/08 6.46 6.54 6.71 5.50 6.83 5.97 _

2019/09 5.94 6.42 6.75 7.01 6.40 4.39 _

2019/10 5.70 5.77 6.10 _ 5.97 5.04 _

2019/11 6.21 6.47 5.28 7.00 7.98 5.06 _

2019/12 6.27 5.44 6.66 6.55 6.60 4.23 _

    Në dollarë amerikanë / In USD  

2017 5.36 5.04 7.08 _ 5.56 5.94 _

2018 5.38 5.37 5.79 _ 4.76 5.64 _

2019 4.31 4.30 4.70 _ 4.32 4.16  

2019/07 4.56 4.66 6.69 _ 3.79 _ _

2019/08 4.55 4.74 4.27 _ _ 3.95 _

2019/09 3.55 3.53 4.50 _ 5.50 _ _

2019/10 3.76 3.61 4.76 _ _ _ _

2019/11 4.06 3.99 5.15 _ _ 6.97 _

2019/12 3.84 3.84 3.90 _ _ _ _

    Në Euro / In EUR  

2017 4.50 4.27 4.46 5.36 4.89 4.49 5.90

2018 4.20 3.90 4.66 5.04 4.59 4.10 4.93

2019 4.18 4.21 4.06 5.00 4.30 4.06 5.00

2019/07 3.95 3.86 4.08 5.00 4.25 3.87 _

2019/08 4.27 4.34 4.30 _ 4.39 3.96 _

2019/09 3.96 4.43 3.79 _ 4.31 3.28 _

2019/10 4.59 4.75 3.54 _ 5.02 4.56 _

2019/11 4.32 4.76 4.42 _ 2.75 4.23 _

2019/12 4.31 3.70 3.76 _ 4.91 4.25 5.00

Burimi: Banka e Shqipërisë.  * Normat vjetore përfaqësojnë normat mesatare të ponderuara vjetore, ndërsa normat mujore përfaqësojnë normat mesatare të ponderuara mujore.

Source: Bank of Albania.* Yearly data present the annual weighted average rate, while the

monthly data present the monthly weighted average rate.

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81 Banka e Shqipërisë

1-18b normaT e inTeresiT për huaTë e reja Të individëve dhe insTiTucioneve jo me qëllim fiTimi që u shërbejnë individëve, sipas qëllimiT Të përdorimiT dhe monedhës *në përqindje

inTeresT raTes onnew loans of households

and npish by purposeand currency * 1-18b

in percentage

Norma e interesit e huave të reja për individët dhe

institucionet jo me qëllim fitimi që u shërbejnë individëve /

Average monthly interest rates of new loans to households

and NPISH

Overdraft / Overdraft

Mallra jo të qëndrueshëm /

Consuming of non durable goods

Mallra të qëndrue-shëm / Consuming

of durable goods

Hua për blerje banesash / Loans

for house purchase

Hua për qëllime të tjera / Loans for

other purposes

nga të cilat: për të vetëpunësuarit / of which:

sole proprietorships;part-nerships without legal

status

    Në lekë / In ALL  

2017 7.24 11.02 7.98 7.69 4.06 8.96 8.38

2018 6.96 11.80 7.69 7.73 3.70 9.02 8.68

2019 6.66 11.51 7.74 7.60 3.47 8.22 8.34

2019/07 6.62 11.80 7.73 7.22 3.40 7.65 6.70

2019/08 6.70 11.44 7.73 7.52 3.60 7.88 10.35

2019/09 6.44 12.27 7.85 7.22 3.25 8.08 9.87

2019/10 6.76 11.32 7.84 8.03 3.48 9.06 7.65

2019/11 6.80 11.80 7.86 8.07 3.45 8.86 8.71

2019/12 7.22 11.52 8.13 8.45 3.22 8.81 7.59

    Në dollarë amerikanë / In USD  

2017 5.28 7.19 4.07 3.14 4.59 7.00 _

2018 6.05 6.62 3.29 2.75 4.78 _ _

2019 6.54 7.01 3.39 3.19 _ 6.43 _

2019/07 8.39 8.71 _ 3.00 _ _ _

2019/08 6.69 16.07 4.23 4.30 _ _ _

2019/09 8.30 8.30 _ _ _ _ _

2019/10 8.15 13.25 _ 3.03 _ _ _

2019/11 10.95 15.12 6.21 _ _ _ _

2019/12 6.98 7.06 3.82 _ _ 6.50 _

    Në Euro / In EUR  

2017 3.83 6.94 3.96 4.74 3.18 5.52 5.09

2018 3.78 9.28 2.84 4.21 3.10 5.43 5.17

2019 3.79 8.49 3.10 4.21 3.23 5.13 2.82

2019/07 3.97 9.58 2.80 3.97 3.36 6.39 _

2019/08 3.18 7.99 3.41 3.90 2.50 5.14 _

2019/09 3.79 10.75 2.68 3.97 3.20 6.13 _

2019/10 3.67 9.35 2.73 4.54 3.18 5.71 _

2019/11 3.55 8.94 2.65 4.27 3.07 4.89 3.50

2019/12 3.94 11.14 2.86 3.91 3.32 5.54 5.50

Burimi: Banka e Shqipërisë. * Normat vjetore përfaqësojnë normat mesatare të ponderuara vjetore, ndërsa normat mujore përfaqësojnë normat mesatare të ponderuara mujore.

Source: Bank of Albania.* Yearly data present the annual weighted average rate, while the

monthly data present the monthly weighted average rate.

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82Banka e Shqipërisë

1-19 normaT e inTeresiT për bonoT e ThesariT sipas afaTiT *në përqindje

maTuriTy breakdown of Treausury bills yields * 1-19

in percentage

 Normat e interesit për bonot e thesarit / Maturity breakdown of Treausury bill yields

3 mujor / 3 months 6 mujor / 6 months 12 mujor /12 months

2009/12 6.30 7.52 9.14

2010/12 5.29 6.41 7.09

2011/12 5.31 6.23 6.95

2012/12 5.03 5.65 6.37

2013/12 3.40 3.54 3.66

2014/12 3.15 3.16 3.33

2015/12 _ 2.46 2.40

2016/12 _ 2.00 2.92

2017/01 1.22 2.25 3.20

2017/02 _ 2.01 2.93

2017/03 _ 1.70 2.25

2017/04 _ 1.52 1.79

2017/05 _ 1.54 1.98

2017/06 _ _ 2.04

2017/07 _ 1.54 2.12

2017/08 _ 1.65 2.20

2017/09 _ _ 2.31

2017/10 _ 1.82 2.46

2017/11 _ 2.04 2.54

2017/12 _ _ 2.63

2018/01 1.31 _ 2.71

2018/02 _ 2.04 2.62

2018/03 _ _ 2.51

2018/04 _ 1.84 2.36

2018/05 _ 1.92 2.26

2018/06 _ _ 2.07

2018/07 _ _ 1.82

2018/08 _ 1.36 1.68

2018/09 _ _ 1.67

2018/10 _ 1.34 1.65

2018/11 _ _ 1.54

2018/12 _ _ 1.43

2019/01 _ _ 1.33

2019/02 _ 1.07 1.25

2019/03 _ _ 1.14

2019/04 _ 0.85 1.11

2019/05 _ 0.96 1.29

2019/06 _ _ 1.57

2019/07 _ _ 1.81

2019/08 _ 1.48 2.05

2019/09 _ _ 2.26

2019/10 _ _ 2.07

2019/11 _ _ 1.85

2019/12 _ _ 1.69

Burimi: Banka e Shqipërisë.   Source: Bank of Albania.

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83 Banka e Shqipërisë

1-20 sTaTisTika Të sisTemiT Të pagesave paymenT sysTems sTaTisTics 1-20

 

Volumi i transaksioneve / Volume of transactions Vlera e transaksioneve (në milionë lekë) / Value of transactions (in milions ALL)

AIPS AECH AIPS AECH

1 2 3 4

Totali i periudhës / Total of period

2017 125,641 553,433 8,472,615 97,779

2018 126,038 632,923 9,141,173 108,682

2019 125,766 705,120 10,453,299 121,178

2019/07 11,195 63,470 870,406 11,014

2019/08 10,658 52,992 951,881 9,560

2019/09 9,075 55,325 828,158 9,410

2019/10 11,715 65,333 884,577 11,047

2019/11 8,555 58,079 674,407 9,851

2019/12 10,445 75,657 817,124 12,933

1-21 shpërndarja rajonale e Terminaleve Të bankave aTm & pos *fund periudhe

aTm & pos bank Terminals’ disTribuTion of by regions* 1-21

end of period

 

Shpërndarja rajonale e ATM / Number of ATM by regions

Total (2+ 3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7) Tirana Shkodra Korça Gjirokastra Elbasani Lushnja

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2017 747 456 75 59 42 32 83

2018 723 390 83 76 46 38 90

2019 707 442 68 57 38 30 72

  Shpërndarja rajonale e terminaleve POS / Number of POS terminals by regions

2017 7,294 6,269 320 138 173 137 257

2018 8,726 7,259 373 282 218 278 316

2019 11,195 9,449 459 323 217 377 370

1-22 numri i llogarive Të klienTëve në banka*fund periudhe

number of cusTomers accounTs wiTh banks* 1-22end of period

 

Llogaritë totale / Total accounts

(2+ 5)

 

Llogari rezidente / Resident accounts

 Llogari jo rezidente / Non

resident accounts (6+7)

 

Individë / Individu-als (3+4)

Kompani / Com-panies

Individë / Indi-viduals

Kompani / Com-panies

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2017 3,141,739 3,109,886 2,922,314 187,572 31,853 30,045 1,808

2018 3,115,421 3,081,286 2,892,461 188,825 34,135 32,377 1,758

2019 2,984,912 2,947,647 2,722,451 225,196 37,265 35,557 1,708 Burimi: Banka e Shqipërisë.* Raportimet e bankave sipas “Metodologjisë për raportimin e instrumenteve të pagesave(2008)” e rishikuar në Janar të vitit 2014.* Të dhënat nuk janë audituar nga Banka e Shqipërisë.

Source: Bank of Albania.* Banks reports according to “Methodology for reporting payments instruments (2008) ” revised in January 2014.

 * Data are not audited by the Bank of Albania.

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84Banka e Shqipërisë

2 s

ekTo

ri i

jash

Tëm

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bila

nc

i i p

ag

esav

e 1

mili

onë

euro

exTe

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cTo

r 2

bala

nc

e o

f pa

ymen

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2-1

in m

illio

ns e

ur

Lloga

ria k

orre

nte

/ C

urre

nt a

ccou

nt

(2+

5+ 8

+ 11

)

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ria k

api-

tale

/ C

apita

l ac

coun

Mal

lrat /

G

oods

(3

- 4)

Kred

i / C

redi

tD

ebi /

Deb

itSh

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met

/

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(6-7

)Kr

edi /

Cre

dit

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i / D

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ra p

arës

ore

/ Pr

imar

y in

com

e (9

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i / C

redi

tD

ebi /

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ard

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dyt

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e /

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ndar

y in

com

e (1

2-13

)Kr

edi /

Cre

dit

Deb

i / D

ebit

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23

45

67

89

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14

2016

-811

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602.

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99.1

174.

140

8.7

234.

682

0.5

961.

214

0.7

66.2

2017

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824.

279

7.1

3621

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81.8

2856

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74.3

28.7

407.

437

8.8

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796

1.8

114.

112

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198

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3857

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939

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406.

690

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2018

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31.2

254.

810

86.0

216.

469

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481.

66.

310

5.0

98.7

236.

426

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28.8

41.6

2019

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45.2

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9.5

904.

029

0.7

675.

738

4.9

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778

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1.4

191.

222

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2019

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81.6

242.

210

23.8

262.

781

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553.

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132.

514

2.5

248.

627

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12.3

2019

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010

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447.

811

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3-3

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108.

714

8.6

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628

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ria fi

nanc

-ia

re /

Fi

nanc

ial

acco

unt (

16+

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8)

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et d

i-re

kte /

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ct

inve

stmen

t (1

7- 1

8)

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li /

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olio

in

vestm

ent

(20-

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e të

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er

inve

stmen

t*

(23-

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ime

dhe

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sa n

eto

/

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erro

rs a

nd

omiss

ions

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te e

reze

rvës

dh

e të

lidh

ura

me

to /

Res

erve

as

sets

and

rela

ted

Item

s (2

7- 2

8)M

jete

/ A

sset

s D

etyr

ime*

* /

Lia

biliti

es**

Mje

te /

Ass

ets

Det

yrim

e /

Lia

biliti

esM

jete

/ A

sset

sD

etyr

ime

/

Liabi

lities

Mje

tet e

re

zerv

ës /

Re

serv

e as

sets

Kred

i dhe

hua

nga

FM

N /

Cre

dit a

nd

loan

s fro

m th

e IM

F

 15

1617

1819

2021

2223

2425

2627

28

2016

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36.5

6.1

942.

522

5.2

206.

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8.8

187.

420

1.5

14.0

128.

9-9

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47.7

140.

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2017

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649

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190.

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86.3

114.

918

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70.5

2018

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2.6

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1019

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6.1

176.

125

2.2

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427

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371.

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2018

/IV

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44.9

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264.

8-2

03.0

56.0

259.

0-1

01.7

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64.

159

.727

8.7

273.

9-4

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2019

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628

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29.

422

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2019

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21.7

249.

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3.6

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1-3

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2019

/III

-125

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63.6

8.6

272.

290

.881

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7.2

126.

011

4.5

109.

7-4

.8

Burim

i: Ba

nka

e Sh

qipë

risë.

* N

ë ka

tego

rinë

22 p

ërfsh

ihen

edh

e de

rivat

ivat

fina

ncia

rë.

** N

uk p

ërfsh

ihet

zër

i 28

“Kre

di d

he h

ua n

ga F

MN

”1)

Janë

rish

ikua

r të

dhën

at e

viti

t 201

8 dh

e gj

asht

ëmuj

orit

të p

arë

2019

.

Sour

ce: B

ank

of A

lban

ia.

* O

ther

inve

stmen

t (22

) inc

lude

fina

ncia

l der

ivat

ives

.**

Exc

ludi

ng C

redi

t and

Loa

ns fr

om th

e IM

F 28

.1)

Dat

a ar

e re

vise

d fo

r the

yea

r 201

8 an

d th

e fir

st ha

lf ye

ar 2

019.

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85 Banka e Shqipërisë

2-2

kurs

eT e

këm

bim

iT T

ë le

kuT

kun

dre

jT m

on

edh

ave

krye

sore

lekë

për

një

si të

mon

edhë

s së

hua

jex

ch

an

ge

raTe

2-2

all

per

uni

t of f

orei

gn c

urre

ncie

s

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edha

t kry

esor

e /

Mai

n fo

reig

n cu

rrenc

ies

Mes

atar

ja e

per

iudh

ës/

Aver

age

of p

erio

dFu

ndi i

per

iudh

ës /

End

of p

erio

d

Dol

lari

amer

ikan

/

USD

EURO

/ E

UR

Ster

lina

Angl

eze

/ G

BPFr

anga

Zvi

cera

ne

/ C

HF

Jeni

Japo

nez

(per

10

0) /

JPY

Dol

lari

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dez

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ADD

olla

ri am

erik

an

/ U

SDEU

RO /

EU

RSt

erlin

a An

glez

e /

GBP

Fran

ga Z

vice

rane

/

CH

FJe

ni Ja

pone

z (p

er

100)

/ JP

YD

olla

ri Ka

nade

z /

CAD

12

34

56

78

910

1112

2017

119.

1013

4.15

153.

2012

0.91

106.

1891

.74

111.

1013

2.95

149.

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3.94

98.7

488

.64

2018

107.

9912

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144.

2111

0.48

97.8

383

.40

107.

8212

3.42

137.

4210

9.60

98.0

079

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2019

109.

8512

3.01

140.

2511

0.57

100.

7982

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108.

6412

1.77

143.

0011

2.30

100.

0983

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2019

/07

108.

6212

1.95

135.

4611

0.03

100.

3982

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109.

0712

1.64

132.

7311

0.13

100.

4882

.97

2019

/08

108.

9812

1.26

132.

4011

1.25

102.

5082

.13

110.

5912

2.12

134.

7911

1.88

103.

9583

.16

2019

/09

110.

4412

1.61

136.

3311

1.47

102.

7783

.35

111.

7012

2.11

137.

5311

2.44

103.

5084

.34

2019

/10

111.

4412

3.11

140.

6911

2.17

103.

0984

.48

110.

4412

3.25

143.

0311

1.91

101.

9983

.89

2019

/11

111.

0612

2.80

143.

0811

1.91

102.

0683

.94

111.

3412

2.52

143.

3911

1.56

102.

0383

.93

2019

/12

109.

9412

2.17

144.

0911

1.87

100.

7383

.48

108.

6412

1.77

143.

0011

2.30

100.

0983

.38

Burim

i: Ba

nka

e Sh

qipë

risë.

Sour

ce: B

ank

of A

lban

ia.

2-3

eksp

orT

i sip

as

gru

p m

all

rave

*n

ë m

ilion

ë le

këex

porT

by

co

mm

od

iTy

gro

ups

* 2-

3in

mill

ions

all

 

Gjit

hsej

/ T

otal

(2+

3+ 4

+ 5+

6+

7+ 8

+ 9+

10)

Ush

qim

, pije

duh

an

/ Fo

od, b

ever

ages

, to

bacc

o

Min

eral

e, lë

ndë

djeg

ëse,

en

er. e

lek.

/ M

iner

als,

fu

els,

ele

ctric

ity

Prod

ukte

kim

ike

dhe

plas

tike

/ C

hem

ical

and

pl

astic

pro

duct

s

Lëku

re d

he a

rtiku

j pre

j lëk

ure

/ Le

athe

r and

oth

er le

athe

r m

anuf

actu

res

Prod

him

e dr

uri d

he le

tre /

W

ood

man

ufac

ture

s an

d ar

ticle

s of

pap

er

Teks

tile d

he

këpu

cë /

Tex

tile

and

foot

wea

r

Mat

eria

le n

dërti

mi d

he

met

ale

/ C

onstr

uctio

n m

ater

ials

and

met

als

Mak

iner

i, pa

jisje

dhe

pje

këm

bim

i / M

achi

nerie

s,

equi

pmen

ts an

d sp

are

parts

Të tj

era

/

Oth

ers

12

34

56

78

910

2017

272,

987.

930

,080

.543

,087

.94,

731.

72,

966.

08,

308.

611

7,38

8.7

43,8

02.4

15,0

78.9

7,54

3.3

2018

310,

435.

932

,333

.656

,397

.66,

190.

82,

727.

49,

627.

012

3,74

1.9

53,1

93.9

18,0

02.0

8,22

1.7

2019

298,

790.

135

,374

.350

,273

.97,

653.

52,

444.

19,

592.

011

8,20

1.5

45,3

84.8

20,8

92.1

8,97

3.8

2019

/07

27,7

54.2

3,15

8.0

4,49

8.7

736.

222

7.0

862.

011

,668

.44,

216.

71,

523.

886

3.5

2019

/08

20,0

75.6

2,01

7.0

3,55

0.3

874.

756

.965

1.1

6,47

6.3

2,90

1.0

2,98

9.9

558.

4

2019

/09

24,9

38.4

2,68

6.9

4,86

5.3

683.

520

4.5

808.

19,

902.

63,

481.

51,

613.

269

2.7

2019

/10

27,0

27.4

3,65

5.7

4,81

9.6

653.

621

7.6

916.

210

,345

.63,

963.

91,

567.

588

7.7

2019

/11

24,7

44.5

3,42

2.2

4,16

7.3

629.

422

9.8

896.

19,

654.

33,

314.

11,

682.

174

9.2

2019

/12

21,9

02.4

2,87

6.4

4,69

1.2

480.

516

1.5

737.

97,

892.

83,

262.

91,

125.

667

3.8

Burim

i: IN

STAT

.*

Eksp

orte

t jan

ë në

vle

rën

F.O.B

.So

urce

: IN

STAT

.*

Expo

rts a

re v

alue

d in

F.O

.B.

Page 86: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

86Banka e Shqipërisë

2-4

impo

rTi s

ipa

s g

rup

ma

llra

ve*

mili

onë

lekë

impo

rT b

y c

om

mo

diT

y g

rou

ps*

2-4

in m

illio

ns a

ll

 

Gjit

hsej

/ T

otal

(2+

3+ 4

+ 5+

6+

7+

8+ 9

+ 10

)U

shqi

m, p

ije d

uhan

/

Food

, bev

erag

es,

toba

cco

Min

eral

e, lë

ndë

djeg

ëse,

ene

r. el

ek./

M

iner

als,

fuel

s,

elec

trici

ty

Prod

ukte

kim

ike

dhe

plas

tike

/ C

hem

ical

an

d pl

astic

pro

duct

s

Lëku

re d

he a

rtiku

j pre

j lëk

ure

/ Le

athe

r and

oth

er le

athe

r m

anuf

actu

res

Prod

him

e dr

uri d

he le

tre /

W

ood

man

ufac

ture

s an

d ar

ticle

s of

pap

er

Teks

tile d

he

këpu

cë /

Tex

tile

and

foot

wea

r

Mat

eria

le n

dërti

mi d

he

met

ale

/ C

onstr

uctio

n m

ater

ials

and

met

als

Mak

iner

i, pa

jisje

dhe

pje

këm

bim

i / M

achi

nerie

s,

equi

pmen

ts an

d sp

are

parts

Të tj

era

/

Oth

ers

12

34

56

78

910

2017

626,

185.

810

6,73

7.8

65,9

62.6

86,8

87.2

18,9

82.9

23,6

91.6

87,1

22.9

76,6

24.2

134,

060.

126

,116

.6

2018

641,

465.

510

6,50

7.7

68,3

84.8

87,7

48.2

18,8

95.9

25,1

56.2

88,2

22.4

78,3

96.3

142,

335.

325

,818

.7

2019

649,

097.

711

0,36

5.0

77,2

35.0

88,7

29.4

17,3

27.2

25,8

17.2

87,1

99.9

78,4

39.1

138,

751.

825

,233

.2

2019

/07

59,7

58.3

10,3

05.6

6,68

3.9

8,23

2.7

1,43

0.2

2,54

8.4

7,98

8.7

7,85

4.9

12,4

97.9

2,21

6.1

2019

/08

51,6

85.0

10,5

04.2

6,77

9.1

7,29

0.7

773.

22,

316.

75,

018.

36,

374.

310

,662

.41,

966.

3

2019

/09

52,1

85.2

9,28

0.2

5,51

4.8

7,59

3.7

1,35

1.6

2,24

2.6

7,51

1.7

6,27

0.4

10,5

62.4

1,85

7.8

2019

/10

59,3

08.3

9,35

5.7

6,79

0.2

8,40

1.5

1,59

9.1

2,23

5.5

7,97

0.4

6,57

9.5

13,6

70.8

2,70

5.7

2019

/11

52,9

64.6

8,34

0.0

5,93

9.9

7,11

4.8

1,47

6.9

2,48

1.8

7,90

5.7

5,60

2.1

11,8

38.1

2,26

5.4

2019

/12

55,5

22.6

10,2

65.2

6,12

6.7

7,79

2.6

1,24

8.6

1,89

0.7

6,90

1.3

5,46

4.3

13,2

97.7

2,53

5.4

Burim

i: IN

STAT

.*

Impo

rtet j

anë

në v

lerë

n C

.I.F.

Sour

ce: I

NST

AT.

* Im

ports

are

val

ued

in C

.I.F.

2-5

borx

hi i

jash

Tëm

bru

Ton

ë m

ilion

ë eu

rog

ross

exT

ern

al

deb

T 2-

5in

mill

ions

eur

 

Borx

hi i

jash

tëm

br

uto

/ G

ross

ex

tern

al d

ebt

(2+

5+ 8

+ 11

+ 14

)

 

Qev

eria

e

përg

jiths

hme

/ G

ener

al

Gov

ernm

ent

(3+

4)

 Ba

nka

Qën

dror

e /

C

entra

l Ban

k (6

+ 7)

 Ko

rpor

ata

Dep

ozitu

ese,

me

përja

shtim

të B

ankë

s Q

ëndr

ore

/ D

epos

it-tak

ing

corp

orat

ions

, ex

cept

Cen

tral B

ank

(9+

10)

 Se

ktorë

të tj

erë

/ O

ther

sec

-to

rs (1

2+13

)

 In

vesti

mi D

irekt:

Hua

Ndë

rkom

pani

/

Dire

ct In

vestm

ent:

Inte

rcom

pany

Lend

ing

Afat

shku

rtër /

Sh

ort-te

rmAf

atgj

atë

/

Long

-term

Afat

shku

rtër /

Sh

ort-te

rmAf

atgj

atë

/

Long

-term

Afat

shku

rtër /

Sh

ort-te

rmAf

atgj

atë

/

Long

-term

Afat

shku

rtër /

Sh

ort-te

rmAf

atgj

atë

/

Long

-term

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

2016

7,88

1.5

3,40

1.0

_3,

401.

063

.3_

63.3

1,34

9.9

1,22

0.3

129.

61,

276.

934

0.5

936.

41,

790.

5

2017

*7,

949.

43,

529.

1_

3,52

9.1

56.8

_56

.81,

386.

21,

230.

515

5.7

1,24

1.2

350.

489

0.8

1,73

6.2

2018

8,35

3.2

3,82

9.0

_3,

829.

056

.8_

56.8

1,42

7.0

1,29

2.1

134.

81,

345.

937

1.2

974.

71,

694.

5

2018

/IV

8,35

3.2

3,82

9.0

_3,

829.

056

.8_

56.8

1,42

7.0

1,29

2.1

134.

81,

345.

937

1.2

974.

71,

694.

5

2019

/I8,

416.

13,

860.

8_

3,86

0.8

57.6

_57

.61,

429.

11,

287.

614

1.6

1,34

3.5

386.

195

7.4

1,72

5.1

2019

/II

8,33

5.6

3,79

4.2

_3,

794.

256

.8_

56.8

1,42

3.9

1,27

0.6

153.

41,

355.

338

7.6

967.

71,

705.

3

2019

/III

8,32

8.5

3,80

3.1

_3,

803.

158

.1_

58.1

1,42

6.6

1,25

7.7

168.

91,

343.

037

4.0

969.

01,

697.

8

Burim

i: Ba

nka

e Sh

qipë

risë.

Për d

etaj

e re

fero

huni

tek

“Shp

jegu

es p

ër n

drys

him

et n

ë sta

tistik

at e

sek

torit

të ja

shtë

m s

ipas

BPM

6 (Q

ersh

or 2

014)

”.*

Janë

rish

ikua

r të

dhën

at p

ër v

itin

2017

.

Sour

ce: B

ank

of A

lban

ia.

For d

etai

ls re

fer t

o: “

Com

men

tary

for c

hang

es in

the

publ

icat

ion

of e

xter

nal s

ecto

r sta

tistic

s ac

cord

ing

to B

PM6

(June

201

4)”

* D

ata

are

revi

sed

for t

he y

ear 2

017.

Page 87: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

87 Banka e Shqipërisë

3 se

kTo

ri f

iska

l3-

1 Tr

egu

esiT

fis

kalë

sip

as

buxh

eTiT

kon

solid

ua

rn

ë m

ilion

ë le

kë, f

und

periu

dhe,

të d

hëna

pro

gres

ive

fisc

al

sec

Tor

3fi

sca

l in

dic

aTo

rs r

ega

rdin

g c

on

solid

aTed

bu

dg

eT 3

-1in

mill

ions

all

, end

of p

erio

d, p

rogr

essi

ve d

ata

 

Tot

ali i

ardh

urav

e /

To

tal r

even

ue (2

+ 3+

4)

 To

tali

i shp

en-

zim

eve

/ To

tal

expe

nditu

re (6

+ 7+

8)

 D

efic

iti /

Cas

h ba

lanc

e

Fina

ncim

i i d

efic

itit /

Def

icit

finan

cing

ardh

ura

nga

ndih

mat

/ G

rant

sTë

ard

hura

tatim

ore

/ Ta

x re

venu

eTë

ard

hura

jo

tatim

ore

/ N

on ta

x re

venu

eSh

penz

imet

kor

ente

/

Cur

rent

exp

endi

ture

sSh

penz

ime

kapi

tale

/

Cap

ital e

xpen

ditu

res

Shpe

nzim

e të

tjer

a /

O

ther

exp

endi

ture

Fi

nanc

imi i

bre

ndsh

ëm

/ D

omes

tic fi

nanc

ing

Fina

ncim

i i h

uaj /

Fo

reig

n fin

anci

ng

12

34

56

78

910

11

2017

430,

492

11,0

8539

8,62

920

,778

461,

410

382,

287

68,4

5610

,667

-30,

919

1,80

529

,113

2018

449,

909

8,16

441

9,33

322

,412

476,

147

397,

345

78,4

3436

8-2

6,23

8-6

,866

33,1

04

2019

460,

349

8,81

142

6,27

125

,267

491,

897

416,

852

74,9

9353

.1-3

1,54

940

,932

-9,3

83

2019

/07

265,

797

2,55

024

9,80

313

,444

271,

975

237,

554

34,3

8437

.17

-6,1

7815

,124

-8,9

47

2019

/08

305,

929

2,75

428

8,46

114

,714

309,

504

271,

251

38,2

0053

.09

-3,5

7513

,045

-9,4

69

2019

/09

343,

859

3,29

332

3,39

717

,169

347,

181

304,

451

42,6

7753

.09

-3,3

2213

,026

-9,7

04

2019

/10

383,

404

3,57

436

1,02

018

,810

390,

037

341,

860

48,1

2453

.09

-6,6

3317

,863

-11,

229

2019

/11

421,

129

5,03

739

4,40

921

,682

432,

251

376,

214

55,9

8453

.09

-11,

122

20,9

92-9

,870

2019

/12

460,

349

8,81

142

6,27

125

,267

491,

897

416,

852

74,9

9353

.09

-31,

549

40,9

32-9

,383

Burim

i: M

inist

ria e

Fin

anca

ve d

he E

kono

misë

.Ja

nar -

Dhj

etor

201

9, T

ë dh

ëna

para

prak

e.So

urce

: Min

istry

of F

inan

ce a

nd E

cono

my.

Janu

ary

- Dec

embe

r 201

9, P

relim

inar

y da

ta.

3-2

sTo

ku i

borx

hiT

bren

dsh

ëm s

ipa

s in

sTru

men

Teve

*n

ë m

ilion

ë le

kë, f

und

periu

dhe,

të d

hëna

pro

gres

ive 

do

mes

Tic

deb

T sT

oc

k by

insT

rum

enTs

* 3-

2in

mill

ions

all

, end

of p

erio

d, p

rogr

essi

ve d

ata

 St

oku

i bor

xhit

të b

rend

shëm

/ D

omes

tic

debt

sto

ck (2

+9)

Borx

hi i

Qev

erisë

Qën

dror

e Bu

xhet

ore

/

Budg

etar

y C

entra

l Gov

ernm

ent D

ebt (

3+ 4

+ 5+

6+

7+ 8

)

Borx

hi i

gara

ntua

r / P

ublic

ly

guar

ante

ed d

ebt

Bono

The

sari

/

Trea

sury

bills

Obl

igac

ione

dy

vjeç

are

/ 2

year

s N

ote

Obl

igac

ione

tre

vjeç

are

/ 3

year

s N

ote

Obl

igac

ione

pes

ë vj

eçar

e /

5 ye

ars

Not

e

Obl

igac

ione

sh

tatë

vje

çare

/ 7

ye

ars

Not

e

Obl

igac

ione

dh

jetë

vje

çare

/

10 y

ears

Not

eG

aran

ci T

reg.

Bren

d. /

Dom

es-

tic G

uara

ntee

s

12

34

56

78

9

2016

561,

120

530,

834

209,

409

83,6

7428

,920

98,4

2863

,232

47,1

7330

,286

2017

577,

056

546,

939

195,

047

95,4

7424

,673

103,

120

71,6

6956

,956

30,1

17

2018

580,

310

565,

093

194,

545

100,

751

18,6

7910

1,26

681

,788

68,0

6415

,218

2018

/IV

580,

310

565,

093

194,

545

100,

751

18,6

7910

1,26

681

,788

68,0

6415

,218

2019

/I57

7,55

956

2,26

719

2,35

390

,897

17,2

7910

4,88

784

,788

72,0

6415

,292

2019

/II

584,

963

569,

775

194,

097

87,1

9623

,279

105,

386

85,2

8874

,530

15,1

88

2019

/III

589,

870

574,

703

195,

643

86,7

8122

,000

106,

944

85,8

0677

,530

15,1

67

Burim

i: M

inist

ria e

Fin

anca

ve d

he E

kono

misë

.*

Nuk

për

fshih

et ri

vlerë

simi i

val

utës

dhe

gar

anci

të e

bre

ndsh

me.

Bor

xhi i

bre

ndsh

ëm i

Qev

erisë

Qën

dror

e Bu

xhet

ore

përfs

hin

vetë

m le

tra m

e vle

rë të

bor

xhit

dhe

nuk

ka k

redi

të m

arra

tregu

n e

bren

dshë

m.

Bor

xhi i

bre

ndsh

ëm i

gara

ntua

r ësh

të a

fatsh

kurtë

r.

Sour

ce: M

inist

ry o

f Fin

ance

and

Eco

nom

y.*

Fore

ign

Exch

ange

Res

erve

Eva

luat

ion

and

dom

estic

gua

rant

ies

are

not i

nclu

ded.

Budg

etar

y C

entra

l Gov

ernm

ent D

omes

tic d

ebt s

tate

d in

this

tabl

e co

mpr

ises

only

of d

ebt s

ecur

ities

an

d th

ere

are

no lo

an in

strum

ents

dom

estic

ally

con

tract

ed.

Dom

estic

gua

rant

eed

debt

is s

hort

term

.

Page 88: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

88Banka e Shqipërisë

4 se

kTo

ri r

eal

4-1

pro

dh

imi i

bre

nd

shëm

bru

To s

ipa

s kl

asi

fiki

miT

akT

iviT

eTiT

eko

no

mik

, (m

eTo

da

e p

rod

him

iT n

ve r

ev 2

)20

15 –

201

7, m

e çm

ime

korr

ente

, në

mili

onë

lekë

rea

l se

cTo

r 4

gro

ss d

om

esTi

c p

rod

uc

T by

ec

on

om

ic a

cTi

viTi

es,

(pro

du

cTi

on

m

eTh

od

na

ce

rev

2) 4

-120

15 -

2017

at c

urre

nt p

rices

, in

mill

ions

all

Kodi

NVE

Rev

.2Ak

tivite

ti ek

onom

ik 

 Ec

onom

ic a

ctiv

ities

Cod

eN

ace

Rev.

220

1520

1620

17*

A101

-03

Bujq

ësia

, pyj

et d

he p

eshk

imi

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bësh

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i: IN

STAT

. *

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-fina

le.

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ce: I

NST

AT.

* 20

17 S

emifi

nal d

ata.

Page 89: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

89 Banka e Shqipërisë

4-2

ind

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Të p

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him

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ër

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ksi T

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(NVE

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=10

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(për

ban

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/ C

onstr

uctio

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)

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inin

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/ M

anuf

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az, a

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te të

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men

axhi

mit

të m

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betje

ve /

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it në

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*99

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3.9

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STAT

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atar

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nnua

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rge.

Page 90: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

90Banka e Shqipërisë

4-3

ind

eksi

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on

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, ujë

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ë dj

egës

e dh

e en

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, wat

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spor

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bim

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simor

/

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rvic

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Hot

ele,

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rant

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d re

staur

ants

Mal

lra d

he s

hërb

ime

të n

drys

hme

/

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ds a

nd v

ario

us

serv

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12

34

56

78

910

1112

13

2017

*10

3.33

107.

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810

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010

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999

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102.

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1.14

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.67

102.

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1.26

106.

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2.14

102.

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3.74

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106.

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1.29

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105.

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0.43

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910

2.86

101.

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6.37

102.

0810

2.31

103.

63

2019

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4911

1.77

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0.80

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4.52

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7.93

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2.32

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2019

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5911

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9099

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0.94

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2.93

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2.38

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106.

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Burim

i: IN

STAT

. *

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mes

atar

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f ann

ual i

nfla

tion

of la

test

twel

ve m

onth

s (c

alcu

latio

n of

BoA

).

Page 91: Monetary Policy rePort - Bank of Albania · 2020-03-09 · Monetary Policy Report, 2020/I 5 Bank of Albania C h a r T s 2. external economic environment chart 1 composite leading

Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

91 Banka e Shqipërisë

4-4

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ësim

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oved

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12

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2016

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Raporti tremujor i politikës monetare, 2020/I

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