monetary policy chapter 13 2 omo: what can go wrong? credit easier to get fed increases banking...
TRANSCRIPT
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Monetary Policy
Chapter 13
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2
OMO: What can go wrong?
Credit easier to get
Fed increases banking system reserves
Fed buys bonds from the public or banks
Loans Increase
Banks increase loans
Deposits Increase
Money Supply Increases Interest Rates decrease
Banks may not want to
lend
Banks may not want to
lend
Public may not want to
borrow
Public may not want to
borrowLoans are not deposited in the banking
system
Loans are not deposited in the banking
system
Fed Controls Reserves but not the Ms
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Supply
Demand
Reserves
ffro
Federal Funds Rate
Reserves
Ms
$
Md
0
Money
Supply
Demand
P0
Bonds
AD
Price Level
GDP
AS
P0
GDP0
Goods and Services
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Ms
$
Md
0
Money
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Rest of World
National
Income
GDP
HouseholdsFirms
=300
Investment
Circular Flow Diagram
Import
s
Government
Government Spending
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National
Income
Buy goods and
services
HouseholdsFirms
Circular Flow Diagram
Need in liquid form
Deposits and Cash
Md
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GDP= Total Income
Buy Stocks, FundsBonds, CD’s,Life Insurance
Not earning interest in checking accounts
Earning interest
Buy Goods and Services
= Price x QuantityDemand for money (liquidity) depends
on Prices and Quantity purchased
How much money is saved depends on the interest rate on
savings
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National Income
Buy goods and
services
HouseholdsFirms
Circular Flow Diagram
Deposits and Cash
Prices and Quantity Purchased
Prices and Quantity Purchased
Interest Rate
Interest Rate Md
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What Determines How Much Liquidity the Public needs?
Prices +We need more cash for more expensive transactions
Real Income +We need more cash for more transactions.
Interest rate -The higher the interest rate the less cash we want to hold.
The higher prices and Income, the higher the need for cash/deposits
The higher prices and GDP, the higher Deposits are.
The higher the interest rate, the lower Deposits are.
The higher the interest rate, the lower the demand for cash/deposits
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Checking Account DepositsLarger when we engage in more transactions Real GDP is used as an indicator of the number of transactions
(Q)
Larger when transactions are more expensive Price Index is used as indicator of the average price per
transaction (P)
Smaller when the opportunity cost of holding idle cash increases Interest rate () is used as the indicator of opportunity cost of
holding cash balances
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MONEY MARKETInterest Rate
Amount the public actually holds in liquid form: Deposits & Cash
Amount the public wants to hold in liquid
form: Deposits & Cash
Md
Ms
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Md
Amount the public wants to hold in liquid
form: Deposits & Cashi
$ Cash and checking accounts
The higher the interest rate, the less money the public WANTS to hold in checking accounts
=3%
=5%
700b500b
A movement up along Md
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M0d
Amount the public wants to hold in liquid
form: Deposits & Cashi
$ Cash and checking accounts
The higher prices/real incomes, the more money the public WANTS to hold in checking
accounts
=3%
700b500b
Md shifts right
M1d
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Amount the public actually holds in
liquid form: Deposits & Cashi
$ Cash and checking accounts
Expansionary Monetary Policy: More Loans, More Deposits,
Money Supply increases
=3%
500b
Ms shifts right
Ms
700b
Ms
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MARKET FOR RESERVESFederal Funds Rate
Supply
Demand
Reserves
ffro
Federal Funds Rate
Reserves
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Demand for Reserves
Supply: banks + Fed
Demand: Banks short of reservesMoney
io
Federal Funds RateAs fed funds
rate rises bank’s want to borrow
less
A movement up (down) along the demand for funds resulting from higher (lower)
interest rates
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Moving along Demand For Reserves
Banks borrow more (less) from other banks when ffr drops (rises)
Shifting Demand for Reserves
Banks borrow more (less) from other banks even though ffr is the same: Deposits increase, banks need
to hold more reserves Deposits decrease, banks need
to hold less reserves
As ffr drops borrowing is cheaper and more
reserves are demanded
ffr0
ffr1
Borrow more Reserves when deposits increase
ffr0
Movement Along:• Caused by a changeIn interest rates• Change in Quantity Demandedof reserves.
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Demand for Reserves
Supply= excess reserves + Fed
changes
Demand: Banks + Public
Money
io
Federal funds RateBanks need
more reserves when Deposits
increase
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Demand for Reserves depends on dollar value of transactions
Demand for Reserves depends on size of Deposits:
R = r*D
Size of Deposits
depend on dollar value of transactions:
P*Q
Demand for Reserves
depends on dollar value of
transactions: P*Q
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Shifts in Demand for Reserves
Supply= excess reserves + Fed
changes
Demand = Banks in need of reserves
Money
io
Federal funds RateBanks need
more reserves when Deposits
increase
Deposits/ Demand for
reserves increase with
more transactions
When Prices or GDP increase Demand for reserves shift to the right
Deposits/ Demand for
reserves increase when GDP or Prices
increase
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Moving along Demand For Reserves
Banks borrow more (less) from other banks when ffr drops (rises)
Shifting Demand for Reserves
Banks borrow more (less) from other banks even though ffr is the same when: Deposits increase, banks need
to hold more reserves Deposits decrease, banks need
to hold less reserves
Borrow more Reserves when ffr drops
ffr0
ffr1
Borrow more Reserves when deposits increase
ffr0
Shift:• Caused by a changeIn prices or incomes• Change in Demand for Reserves
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MARKET FOR RESERVESFederal Funds Rate
Supply
Demand
Reserves
ffro
Federal Funds Rate
ReservesWhen GDP or
Prices increase, Demand for
Reserves shifts right and ffr increases
ffr1
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MARKET FOR RESERVESFederal Funds Rate
Supply
Demand
Reserves
ffro
Federal Funds Rate
Reserves
Decrease in GDP or Prices
Demand for Reserves shifts
left, ffr dropsffr1
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Reserves
io
Federal Funds Rate
Banks increase lending as interest rates rise because it is more profitable
Banks lend more when the fed funds
rate increases
Supply: banks with excess reserves
A movement up (down) along the supply of funds
resulting from higher (lower) interest rates
A movement up (down) along the supply of funds
resulting from higher (lower) interest rates
Moving Along Supply of Reserves
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Reserves
io
Federal Funds Rate
The Fed manipulates the amount of reserves in the system.
Supply increases
when the Fed injects
reserves
A rightward (leftward) shift in the supply of funds resulting from Fed injecting (destroying)
reserves into (from) the system
Supply: banks, Fed
Shifting Supply of Reserves
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Market for Reserves: Fed Buys Bonds
Supply= excess reserves + Fed
changes
Demand: Banks + Public
Money
ffro
Federal funds Rate
ffr1
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27
Open Market Operations: Fed Buys Bonds
Credit easier to get
Fed increases banking system reserves
Fed buys bonds from the public or banks
Loans Increase
Banks increase loans
Deposits Increase
Money Supply Increases Interest Rates decrease
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The Money Market: Fed Buys Bonds
i
$
Ms0
Ms1 Reserves, Loans,
Deposits and the Ms
increaseAmount of Money the Public holds in deposit
accounts = Amount the public wants to
hold when 0 =3%
=3%
Md0
Amount of Money the Public holds in deposit accounts > Amount the
public wants to hold
when 0 =3% =2%
Amount of Money the Public holds in deposit accounts = Amount the
public wants to hold
when 0 =2%
Ms1
Money plentiful: Everyone needs to lend money: willing borrowers only found at lower interest rate
Money out of checking accounts and into interest
bearing asset: look for willing borrowers who would pay
interest
Money out of checking accounts and into interest
bearing asset: look for willing borrowers who would pay
interest
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GOODS AND SERVICESPrice Level
AD
Price Level
GDP
AS
P0
GDP0
Goods and Services
AD = C + I + G + NX
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Open Market Operations: Fed Buys Bonds
Credit easier to get
Fed increases banking system reserves
Fed buys bonds to the public or banks
Interest Rates decrease
Banks increase loans
Investment increases
Aggregate demand Increase
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Goods and Services Market: Fed Buys Bonds
GDP Increase
Prices Rise
AD0 = C0 + I0=G0+NX0
Price Level
GDP
AS
AD1 = C0 + I1=G0+NX0
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Inverse Relationship Between Price of Bonds and Interest Rate
Amount you get at maturity
Price you paid for Bond-
Price you paid for Bond
=Interest
rate$100 $90
$90
11%$80
$80
25%
The lower the price on the bond, the higher the interest rate.
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MARKET FOR BONDSPrice of Bonds
Supply: Government and Fed
Demand: Public
P0
Bonds
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When the fed buys bonds it decreases the
supply of bonds
available to the public….
Bond Market: Fed Buys Bonds
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Bond Market: Fed Buys BondsSupply of bonds
Demand for bonds
P0
P1
Bond Price rises: Interest
Rates Decrease
0 =8%0 =8%
1=4%1=4%
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Market for Reserves: Fed Sells Bonds
Supply= excess reserves + Fed
changes
Demand: Banks + Public
Money
Federal funds Rate
ffro
ffr1
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37
Open Market Operations: Fed Sells Bonds
Credit harder to get
Fed reduces banking system reserves
Fed sells bonds to the public or banks
Loans Decrease
Banks decrease loans
Deposits Decrease
Money Supply Decreases Interest Rates increase
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The Money Market: Fed Sells Bonds
i
$
Ms0Ms
1
Reserves, Loans, Deposits and the Ms
decrease
Amount of Money the Public holds in deposit
accounts = Amount the public wants to
hold when 0 =3% =3%
Md0
Amount of Money the Public holds in deposit accounts < Amount the
public wants to hold
when 0 =3%
Ms1
=5% Amount of Money the Public holds in deposit accounts = Amount the
public wants to hold
when 0 =5%
Amount of Money the Public holds in deposit accounts = Amount the
public wants to hold
when 0 =5%
Money scarce: Everyone needs to borrow cash: willing lenders can be found only at higher interest rate.
Money into checking accounts: look for willing
lenders
Money into checking accounts: look for willing
lenders
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Open Market Operations: Fed Sells Bonds
Credit harder to get
Fed reduces banking system reserves
Fed sells bonds to the public or banks
Interest Rates increase
Banks decrease loans
Investment Decrease
Aggregate demand Drops
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Fed Sells Bonds
GDP Decrease
Prices Drop
Price Level
Real GDP
AS
AD0 = C0 + I0=G0+NX0
AD1 = C0 + I1=G0+NX0
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Bond Market: Fed Sells BondsSupply of bonds: Fed, government
Demand for bonds
P0=90
P1=80
Bond Price falls: Interest
Rates Increase
=11% =11%
=25% =25%
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When the Fed Wants to Reduce Unemployment
Use Expansionary Monetary Policy
Increase Reserves and Money Supply
Decrease the interest rate.
Increase Investment
Increase Aggregate Demand for goods and services
Buy Bonds
Decrease Decrease r
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When the Fed Wants to Reduce InflationUse Contractionary Monetary Policy
Decrease the Money Supply
Increase the interest rate.
Decrease Investment and Consumption?
Decrease Aggregate Demand for goods and services
Sell Bonds
Increase Increase r
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Interest Rate and Velocity of Money
Velocity = Nominal GDP/Ms
Velocity of money: Number of times a dollar bill is used
Dollar value of what we buy
Dollar value of what we buy
Ms = Deposits + currency
Ms = Deposits + currency
Contractionary Policy: interest rate rise, public holds less cash and deposits
(Ms):Velocity increases
As interest rate rise, public holds less cash for transactions: each dollar is
used more times.
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Price = $100
=10%Get at maturity =
$110
Amount you get at maturity
Price you paid for Bond-
Price you paid for Bond
=Interest
rate110 100
100
10%
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Price = $100
=10%Get at maturity =
$110
Amount at maturity Bond Price-
=110 100
100
10%
Interest rates drop
to 8%
Bond PriceP?
8%P?
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-=
110 10010% P?
8%P?
-=
110 P?0.08
P?= 110
1.08P
= 110/1.08
P = $101.85P
Interest rates drop
to 8%
Bond Price rises
P + 0.08P= 110
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Supply
Demand
Quantity Bank Reserves
ffro
Federal Funds Rate Ms
i
$
Md
Supply of bonds
Demand for
bonds
P0
i0
AD
Price Level
GDP
AS
P0
GDP0
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Monetary Policy Actions
Demand for Reserves
Supply of Reserves
Federal Funds Rate
Loans Deposits Ms
Interest Rate
Supply of Bonds Bond Price GDP Price
Level
Increase in Required Reserve Ratio (r) : Banks need more
Reserves; can make fewer loans
Increase: more banks short of R Increase Decrease Decrease Ms
Decrease Increase I , AD , GDP drop
falls
Decrease in Required Reserve Ratio (r): Banks need less Reserves; can
make more loans
Decrease: Fewer banks short of
reserves Decrease Increase Increase Ms
Increase Decrease I , AD , GDP rise rise
Buy Bonds: inject reserves into the
system Increase Decrease Increase Increase Ms
Increase Decrease Decrease Increase I , AD , GDP rise rise
Sell Bonds: erase reserves from the
system Decrease Increase Decrease Decrease Ms
Decrease Increase Increase DecreaseI , AD , GDP drop
falls
Increase in Discount Rate: Fed loans more
expensive, banks borrow less from Fed
Decrease: Banks hold instead of
lending excess
reserves
Increase
Decrease: Banks beef up
resesrves instead
of lending
Decrease Ms Decrease Increase
I , AD , GDP drop
falls
Decrease in Discount Rate: Fed loans
cheaper, banks borrow more from the fed
Increase: Banks lend instead of
holding excess
reserves
Decrease
Increase: Banks
hold less excess
reserves increase lending
Increase Ms
Increase Decrease I , AD , GDP rise rise
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Public’s Actions
Demand for Reserves
Supply of Reserves
Federal Funds Rate
Deposits Md Interest Rate GDP Price
Level
Increase in Prices: Public needs more cash & Deposits for
more expensive transactions
Increase: More reserves are
needed when Deposits increase:
R = r*D
same Increase Increase Md
Increase IncreaseI , AD , GDP drop
falls
Decrease in Prices: Public needs less cash
& Deposits for less expensive transactions
Decrease: Less reserves are
needed when Deposits decrease:
R = r*D
same Decrease Decrease Md
Decrease DecreaseI , AD , GDP rise
rise
Increase in Incomes (GDP) An economic Expansion Public
needs more cash & Deposits for more
transactions
Increase: More reserves are
needed when Deposits increase:
R = r*D
same Increase Increase Md
IncreaseIncrease
I , AD , GDP drop
falls
Decrease in Incomes (GDP) Economic Recession Public needs less cash & Deposits for fewer
transactions
Decrease: Less reserves are
needed when Deposits decrease:
R = r*D
same Decrease Decrease Md
DecreaseDecrease
I , AD , GDP rise
rise
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Event Demand for Reserves Supply of Reserves
Federal Funds Rate
Loans Deposits Md/Ms Interest Rate
Supply of Bonds Bond Price GDP Price
Level
Increase in Required Reserve Ratio (r) : Banks need more Reserves; can make fewer loans
Increase: more banks short of R Increase Decrease Decrease Ms Decrease Increase
Decrease in Required Reserve Ratio (r): Banks need less Reserves; can make more loans
Decrease: Fewer banks short of reserves Decrease Increase Increase Ms Increase Decrease
Buy Bonds: inject reserves into the system Increase Decrease Increase Increase Ms Increase Decrease Decrease Increase
Sell Bonds: erase reserves from the system Decrease Increase Decrease Decrease Ms Decrease Increase Increase Decrease
Increase in Discount Rate: Fed loans more expensive, banks borrow less from Fed
Decrease: Banks hold instead of lending excess reserves
Increase
Decrease: Banks beef up resesrves instead of lending
Decrease Ms Decrease Increase
Decrease in Discount Rate: Fed loans cheaper, banks borrow more from the fed
Increase: Banks lend instead of holding excess reserves
Decrease
Increase: Banks hold less excess reserves increase lending
Increase Ms Increase Decrease
Increase in Prices: Public needs more cash&Deposits for more expensive transactions
Increase: More reserves are needed when Deposits increase: R = r*D
same Increase Increase Md Increase Increase
Decrease in Prices: Public needs less cash&Deposits for less expensive transactions
Decrease: Less reserves are needed when Deposits decrease: R = r*D
same Decrease Decrease Md Decrease Decrease
Increase in Incomes (GDP) An economic Expansion Public needs more cash&Deposits for more transactions
Increase: More reserves are needed when Deposits increase: R = r*D
same Increase Increase Md Increase Increase
Decrease in Incomes (GDP) Economic Recession Public needs less cash&Deposits for fewer transactions
Decrease: Less reserves are needed when Deposits decrease: R = r*D
same Decrease Decrease Md Decrease Decrease
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Questions to prepare for the testUse a diagram to show the effect on reserves, the money
supply, the interest rate, the price of bonds and Aggregate Demand for the following events. Write a clear explanation of the process step by step.
1. The fed increases/decreases the required reserve ratio
2. The fed buys/sells bonds in the open market
3. Fed increases/decreases the (discount) primary credit rate.
4. Prices increase/decrease
5. Incomes increase/decrease
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Supply
Demand
Reserves
ffro
Federal Funds Rate
Reserves
Supply
Demand
Reserves
ffro
Federal Funds Rate
Reserves
Supply
Demand
Reserves
ffro
Federal Funds Rate
Reserves
Supply
Demand
Reserves
ffro
Federal Funds Rate
Reserves
A B
C
D
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Ms
$
Md
0
MoneyMs
$
Md
0
Money
Ms
$
Md
0
Money
Ms
$
Md
0
Money
A B
C D
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Supply
Demand
P0
Bonds
Supply
Demand
P0
Bonds
Supply
Demand
P0
Bonds
Supply
Demand
P0
Bonds
D
C
A B
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AD
Price Level
GDP
AS
P0
GDP0
Goods and Services
AD
Price Level
GDP
AS
P0
GDP0
Goods and Services
AD
Price Level
GDP
AS
P0
GDP0
Goods and Services
AD
Price Level
GDP
AS
P0
GDP0
Goods and Services
A B
C D