ENBMI View:Moldova's nextgovernment will be highly unstable, due to the fact that itwill bea two-party minority coalition. Although the biggest parties are in favour of deeperintegrationwith the EU, the fragmented nature of the political scene will impede the implementation of reforms needed to meet EUaccessioncriteria.Furthermore, given the expansion fatigue within the EU, Moldova is highly unlikely to join the bloc within the next five years.Moldova's next government is likely to be very weak, thus severely limiting the scope for the implementation of political and economic reforms designed to integrate the country with the EU. On January 29, Moldovan President Nicolae Timofti re-appointed incumbent prime minister Iurie Leanca following two months of political negotiations after the November 30, 2014 general election (for further background, see December 1, 2014, 'Pro-EU Coalition Edges Ahead, But Tricky Negotiations To Follow').Leanca hails from the Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova (PLDM), which emerged as the second-largest party after the opposition Socialists (PSRM, 25 seats) in last year's election, with 23 seats. The PLDM has renewed its coalition with the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM, 19 seats), but the small Liberal Party (PL, 13 seats) will not be re-joining them in government. Prior to the general election, the PLDM, PDM, and PL ruled Moldova as a pro-EU coalition with a bare majority. Now, the new PLDM-PDM coalition will have only 42 seats in the 101-member parliament.

LVMoldovas nkam valdba bs oti nestabilas, sakar ar to, ka tas bs divu partiju mazkuma koalcija. Lai gan lielkajm partijm, esam par dziku integrciju ar ES, sadrumstalotba politisks skatuves traucs stenot reformas, kas nepiecieamas, lai izpildtu ES iestans kritrijus. Turklt, emot vr ES paplainans nogurums ir oti niecga, Moldova vlas pievienoties bloka tuvko piecu gadu laik.

Moldovas nkamaj valdb, visticamk, bs oti vja, tdjdi btiski ierobeojot iespju stenot politisks un ekonomisks reformas, kas paredzta, lai integrtu o valsti ar ES. 29. janvr Nicolae Timofti Moldovas prezidents, bijuais premjerministrs Iurie Leanca iecelt atkrtoti divus mneus pc politisks sarunas pc. novembra 30, 2014 visprjs vlans (papildu informcija, skatiet December 1, 2014, 'Pro-EU koalcija malm Ahead, Bet Tricky Sarunas To Follow').

Apsveikti Leanca Liberldemokrtisk partija no Moldovas (PLDM), kas iznca k lielk partija pc opozcijas socilisti (PSRM, 25 vietas), kas pagju gada vlans, ar 23 sdvietm. To PLDM atjaunojusi savu koalciju ar Moldovas Demokrtisk partija (PDM, 19 vietas), bet maz liberl partija (PL, 13 sdvietas) netiks re-joining vius valdb. Pirms visprjm vlanm, PLDM, PDM, un PL lma par ES k Moldova ar pliku koalcijas vairkumu. Tagad, jaunaj PLDM-PDM koalcij bs tikai 42 vietas 101-member parlament.

What has happened in Moldova in recent months can be explained by saying that political logic is finally taking revenge on bureaucratic logic. Moldovan politicians have started to rebel against the tedious and technical process of implementing reform. They are no longer inclined to play their long-established role as the Eastern Partnerships success story. This rebellion may not last long but it has definitely become a matter of concern for European Union diplomats and officials, who did not see this turn of events coming.The pro-European Moldovan politicians refusal to act in accordance with the politically correct rules can be seen in several events. The parliamentary elections, which took place on 30 November 2014, were approved by monitoring bodies, but they were marked by strong interventions by the Central Electoral Commission, the Ministry of the Interior, and the Supreme Court, which led to several dubious arrests of political activists, the exclusion of a promising political party from the race, and toleration of spoilers. In fact, the final electoral result was to some extent manufactured by manipulative interventions, which, sadly, were accepted without comment by European bodies. The result was convenient for Europe because it held out the promise that a pro-European coalition would be formed by the Liberals, the Liberal Democrats, and the Democrats, excluding the pro-Russian Socialists and the troublesome Communists.

In the event, a different, minority coalition was formed by rejecting the Liberal Party and including the Communists, led by the seemingly indestructible Vladimir Voronin. In doing so, the pro-European Moldovan politicians ignored the strong recommendations made by representatives of European parliament parties during the famous airport meeting on 20 January. The next step was to get rid of then Prime Minister Iurie Leanc, who was very much respected in the West, and who had been promised a new mandate as prime minister by his own party, the Liberal Democrats. Some pressure was brought to bear by Europe, as was made evident during the visit to Moldova of Angela Merkels advisor, Christoph Heusgen. But the Democrats and Liberal Democrats brilliantly fooled both Leanc and the Europeans, using the Communists to enable them to carry out their move. Voronin and his comrades did not vote for the Leanc cabinet, invoking as one of the reasons the presence in the list of ministers of some unacceptable candidates. Ironically, this did not prevent the Communists from voting the next time for the cabinet of the Liberal Democrats new candidate, the obscure Kirill Gaburici, even though the same ministers were on the list. As a result of these political manoeuvres, Leanc left the Liberal Democrats and announced his intention to create a new political party. In this way, the strong pro-European tandem of Iurie Leanc and former prime minister and Liberal Democrat leader Vlad Filat was broken.

Alongside these political acrobatics, the ruling parties orchestrated (or tolerated) a large-scale financial speculation, letting the Moldovan currency, the lei, be devalued by 40 percent. This was followed by a rapid revaluation of the currency and a sharp increase in prices. It is generally believed that this was done in order to obtain cash (around 700 million lei) from financial speculations so as to cover the holes in the banking system created before the elections, when as yet unknown people withdrew around 1 billion dollars from three Moldovan banks. Of course, this had a severe impact on the living standards of Moldovan people, while at the same time providing a source of revenue to a few cunning businessmen.

Moreover, Liberal Democrat leader Vlad Filat suggested that former Prime Minister Leanc was the person responsible for these machinations. Leanc retorted that he had no control over the banking system and asked for thorough investigations. It is easy to see that the threat of indicting Leanc for failing to ensure control of the exchange rate will be a useful tool for the Liberal Democrats in preventing Leancs political recovery.

In this difficult situation, EU officials have been unpleasantly surprised, but are not able to articulate even a word of condemnation. EU policy towards Moldova is shattered. The EU wrongly bet on Filat in the initial stage of reforms, considering him to be a good oligarch. Subsequently, it was unable to defend Leanc against the rising tide of anti-European revisionism. The EU also failed to encourage the creation of a more or less clean pro-European party led by several gifted diplomats, about which there was some controversy in 2014 (when it was called in a conspiratorial way a diplomatic junta). Because of the protracted period of government formation, the Association Agreement has been partly forgotten and the bodies in charge of coordinating it have not yet been created.

Having followed Polish MEP Pawel Kowals advice for the EU to make a pact with the oligarchs, Brussels is to some extent condemned to continue its cooperation with Moldova despite the countrys regrettable backsliding into pure politics. In fact, the EU continues to do business as usual with Moldova even though it can no longer mask its displeasure. Apparently, the only way to exert influence on Moldova would be to cut financial flows. However, the EUs level of funding to Moldova is not high, and the regional situation must be also considered. Punishing Moldova now would mean behaving like Russia.

Moldov, kas ir noticis pdjos mneos var izskaidrot ar to, ka politisk loika ir beidzot atriebties birokrtisko loiku. Moldvu politii ska dumpoties pret garlaicgm un reformu ievieanas tehnisko procesu. Vii vairs nav gatavi demonstrt savu ilggadjo loma k Austrumu partnerbas s veiksmes ststu. sacelans nedrkst ieilgt, bet tas noteikti ir kuvis jautjums, kas attiecas uz Eiropas Savienbas diplomtiem un ierdiem, kuri neredzja o notikumu pavrsiens nks.

Uz Eiropu Moldovas politiiem atteikumu rkoties saska ar politiski pareizajiem noteikumiem var redzt vairku notikumu. Parlamenta vlanas, kas notika 30. novembr 2014, apstiprinja uzraudzbas struktrm, bet vii bija raksturga spcga iejaukans Centrlajai vlanu komisijai, Ieklietu ministrija un Augstk tiesa, kas noveda pie vairkm apaubmu politisko aktvistu aresti, izslgana no daudzsoloa politisk partija no sackstes, un ds spoileri. Faktiski galgais vlanu rezultts bija zinm mr rao manipulatvo iejaukans, kas, dieml, bez vrda runas tika pieemti ar Eiropas struktrm. Rezultts bija izdevgi Eiropai, jo t turja soljumu, ka proeiropeisk koalcija tiktu izveidota Eiropas liberu, demokrtu un liberlo demokrtu esoie prokrieviskie, izemot komunistus, socildemokrtus un traucjoi.

Cit gadjum, tika izveidota mazkuma koalcija, noraidot liberls partijas un komunisti, tostarp ar ietami neuzvaramu Vladimiru Voroinu. To darot, proeiropeiski moldvu politii ignorja ieteikumus spcgs Eiropas parlamenta partiju prstvjiem laik slavenais lidostu tikans par 20. janvr. Nkamais solis bija tikt va no premjerministra Leanc Iurie, kur bija oti cients Rietumos, un kur bija apsoljis jaunu mandtu k premjers, via paa partija, Eiropas liberlie demokrti. Dai spiediens bija uzlikta Eirop, k tas skaidri redzams viztes laik Moldov Angela Merkel s padomnieks, Christoph Heusgen. Tau demokrtu un liberlo demokrtu izdevies apmuot, un eiropieiem, gan izmantojot Leanc komunistiem, lai tie sptu veikt to prvietot. Voroinu un via biedri nenobalsoja par Leanc skapti, k viens no iemesliem tiek minta kltbtni sarakst dai nepieemami ministru kandidtiem. Ironiski, tau tas neliedza komunisti no balsoanas nkamreiz skaptim, liberlie demokrti jaunu kandidtu, to aizno Kirila Gaburici, kaut gan tie pai ministri bija sarakst. Rezultt ie politiskie manevri, Leanc kreisi liberlie demokrti un pazioja savu nodomu izveidot jaunu politisko partiju. d veid stipra proeiropeiska tandma (Iurie Leanc un biju premjerministra un liberlo demokrtu lderis Vlad Filat tika lauzts.

Ldztekus m politisk akrobtika, valdos partijas reist (vai pacie) plaa mroga finanu spekulcijm, aujot Moldovas valta, lei, tiks devalvts par 40 procentiem. Tam sekoja strauja valtas prvrtanu un strauju cenu pieaugumu. Kopum uzskata, ka tas tika darts, lai iegtu naudu (ap 700 miljoni lei) no finanu spekulcijas, lai nosegtu uzplsumus banku sistmas izveidotas pirms vlanm, kad pagaidm nezinmi cilvki pulcjs ap 1 miljardus dolru no trs Moldovas bankm. Protams,tas smagi ietekmja Moldovas iedzvotju dzves lmeni, vienlaikus nodroinot iemumu avots, lai daas viltbas biznesmei.

Turklt Liberldemokrtu partijas lderis Vlad Filat ierosinja bijuais premjerministrs Leanc bija atbildgais par m mahincijm. Leanc atcirta, ka vi nebija kontroles pr banku sistmu un prasja rpgu izmeklanu. Ir viegli redzt, ka draudi Leanc izvirza pretenzijas par trkumiem, lai nodrointu kontroli pr valtas kurss bs nodergs instruments, lai novrstu liberldemokrtu Leanc politisko atveseoanos.

aj saretaj situcij ES ierdi bijui nepatkami prsteigti, tau nespjam skaidri formult pat vrda nosodjumu. ES politik attiecb uz Moldovu ir sagrauts. ES nepareizi Filat sadert par reformu skumposm, uzskatot viu par labs oligarhs. Pc tam t nebija spjga aizstvt Leanc paisumu pret Eiropu vrsta revizionismu. ES ar mudinu izveidot vairk vai mazk tri eiropeiska partija, ko vadja vairki talantgi diplomti, par ko bija zinmas diskusijas, 2014 (ja t to sauca,sazvrniecisku k diplomtisko Hunta). Tpc ilgu laiku valdbas veidoanu, Asocicijas nolgums ir daji aizmirsusi, un iestdes, kas atbild par koordinciju, tas vl nav izveidots.sazvrniecisku k diplomtisko Hunta). Tpc ilgu laiku valdbas veidoanu, Asocicijas nolgums ir daji aizmirsusi, un iestdes, kas atbild par koordinciju, tas vl nav izveidots.

emot sekoja Polijas deputts Pawel Kowal konsultcijas par ES dot paktu ar oligarhu, Briseli zinm mr ir nolemti turpint sadarbbu ar Moldovu, lai gan valst ir nolojami backsliding tr politika. ES faktiski turpina dart business as usual ar Moldovu pat ja tas vairs nevar noslpt savu nepatiku. Acmredzot, viengais veids, k ietekmt Moldovai btu samazint finanu plsmu. Tomr ES finansjuma lmenis nav augsts un Moldovas reionlo situciju ir jbt ar uzskatja. Tagad nozm sodt Moldovas uzvedas k Krievija.

As a Prime Minister, Leanca, which has no important influence in the above mentioned Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova, achieved too much success in order for him to be integrated in the corrupt system. After the 30th of November elections, Filat and Plahotniuc decided that it is better to create a minority Government with the support of the Communists instead of prolonging the existing coalition with the liberals from the Liberal Party of Moldova and to take on the risk of stopping reforms. Liberals insisted that the position of the General Prosecutor to be transferred to an independent lawyer from the EU country. But this was not convenient for Filat and Plahotniuc.

K premjerministrs, Leanca, kurai nav nozmga ietekme uz iepriek minto Liberldemokrtisk partija Moldov, sasniegt prk daudz veiksmes, lai viam tiktu integrta korumpto sistmu. Pc novembra vlanm, 30th Plahotniuc Filat un nolma, ka ir labk, lai izveidotu mazkuma valdbu ar komunistu atbalstu, nevis pagarint esoo koalciju ar liberiem no Moldovas liberls partijas un uzemties risku par reformm. Liberi uzstja, ka enerlprokuratru, kas jprskaita neatkargam juristam no ES valstm. Bet tas nebija izdevgi Plahotniuc un Filat.

But Leanca was not leaving any doubts, that he will take any actions to find the truth in the issue of the enormous bank robbery and to get to justice the responsible people. As an interim Prime Minister he contracted the audit company Kroll, whose investigators already uncovered the secret accounts of Jean-Claude Duvaliers, of Marcos and Saddam Hussein families, in order for them to investigate the respective transactions from Moldovan banks. He was planning to create a Parliamentary investigation commission and he announced a reform of the prosecution. European integration is giving us a unique real chance to solve these issues, stated Leanca in his speech in the Parliament.

Bet Leanca nebija atstjusi nekdas aubas, ka vi veiks visas darbbas, lai noskaidrotu patiesbu, jautjumu par milzgo banku laupanas un erties pie tiesas atbildgs personas. K pagaidu prezidents vi nosldzis revzijas uzmums Kroll, kuru izmekltji jau atradui Duvaliers Jean-Claude slepenos kontos, no Markosa un Sadama Huseina imenes locekiem, lai tie izpttu attiecgs darbbas no Moldovas bankm. Vi bija iecerjis izveidot parlamentrs izmeklanas komisiju, un vi pazioja par apsdzbas. Eiropas integrcija ir devusi mums uniklu relas iespjas risint os jautjumus, pazioja Leanca sav run Parlament.

One day later he suffered a failure when his Governmnt was supposed to be voted. The failure was foreseeable. Filat proposed Leanca, because he knew exactly that communists anyway would support him. Neither him, nor Plahotniuc all the more the head of the Communists, Vladimir Voronin, which is also one of the richest businessman in the country had no intention whatsoever to let Leanca and his team to continue working.

Vienu dienu vlk vi cieta neveiksmi, kad via governmnt bija jbalso. Neveiksme bija paredzama. Leanca Filat ierosinja, jo vi preczi zinja, ka t viu atbalsts komunisti. Ne viam, ne vl jo vairk Plahotniuc vadtjs komunisti, Vladimir Voronin, kas ar ir viena no bagtkajm uzmjs valst nebija ne mazk nodoma aut Leanca un via komandai, lai turpintu darbu.

jaunais balsoja premjerministra dabja daudz balsu parlament, bez jebkdas pieples tredienas vakar. Saldzinjum ar Leanca, Chiril predicable Gaburici nepasniedz nekdus draudus par korumptu oligarhu sistmu valst. Ar 38 gadus vecais prezidents Moldcell mobilo sakaru kompnija ar Moldovas Republiku un ts meitas uzmums no Azerbaidnas politiskaj arn ienca nesen, un vi diez vai bs spjgs risint konfliktus, kas var tikt prognozts starp valdoajm partijm, k ar starp tm un komunisti konstruktvu opozciju. Via piedalans Voronin uzstj, lai vada valsti, vi vlas pilngu prskatanu, Asocicijas lgumu ar ES un spljas ar treo ceu starp Eiropas Savienbu un eiro zijas Savienbu domin Krievija. Nestabilitte, kas ir nojauta par nkotni, vajadztu likt prokrieviski orientts spkus spcgku, kas novembr zaudja tikai ar nelielu rezervi. Atirb no Ukrainas, Moldovas, Putins nav jdara daudz, lai pierdtu, ka neveiksmes Eiropas attstbas modeli