modes of foresight in informing public policy and...

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Peter H. Jones @redesign SFI, OCAD University, Toronto Karl Schroeder @karlschroeder Futurist, advisor, author, Toronto Ursula Gobel @ulacan1 AVP Future Challenges, SSHRC, Ottawa Greg Van Alstyne @gregvan sLab, OCAD University, Toronto

Modes of Foresight in informing public policy and decision-making

Actionplanning,scenariosinformoptionalityormapemergingideologies. Fourmodesinpolicy:

• Foresight-ledanalysis • Collaborativeforesightengagement • Expert-ledpolicyproposals • Socialforesight

Jones,P.H.(2017).ThefuturesofCanadiangovernance:Foresightcompetenciesforpublicadministrationinthedigitalera.CanadianPublicAdministration.(inpress).

FiguremodifiedfromPopper,R.(2008).Howareforesightmethodsselected?”Foresight10(6):62–89. Peter H Jones | sLab.ocadu.ca

AnticipatoryDesigninPolicyFormation

Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.caPolicy Foresight: What Works & Why?

DigitalEraGovernance:ThecomingclashVanAlstyne,Jones,Candy betweendigitalcitizens&Westminster

Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.caPolicy Foresight: What Works & Why? Peter H Jones | sLab.ocadu.ca

ImaginingCanada’sFuture:FuturesofUrbanizationJones,Stein,VanAlstyne


In the face of increasing urbanization worldwide, what future challenges do we anticipate for Southern Ontario, through 2030?

Method: Structured Dialogic Design (SDD)

ImaginingCanada’sFuture:FuturesofUrbanizationJones,Stein,VanAlstyne

Challenge 1 Advancing

a diverse and

inclusive society

Challenge 2 Enabling

equitable

access to ICT

Challenge 3Governing

ourselves

responsively

Challenge 5Overcoming

fear of change

Challenge 4 Designing

sustainable

cities

Challenge 7Transitioning to a digital

economy

Challenge 6Including

indigenous

rights in

planning

Challenge 8Upgrading

transportation systems

Challenge 9Stewarding

regional

ecosystems

Challenge 10Supporting our aging

population

Level VMost influencing

Level IV Significantly Influencing

Level IIIInfluenced

Level II Highly Influenced

“In the face of increasing urbanization worldwide, what future challenges do we anticipate for Southern Ontario, now through 2030?”

Peter H Jones | sLab.ocadu.ca

FutureofHumanTeamingwithAutonomousSystemsUSAirForceResearchLab

Peter H Jones | sLab.ocadu.ca

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Karl Schroeder Futurist, advisor, author, Toronto

Vision and method for policy futures & futures in policy making

Karl Schroeder

8 Karl Schroeder

ADVANCING KNOWLEDGE FOR CANADA’S FUTURE

ENABLINGEXCELLENCE,BUILDINGPARTNERSHIPS,CONNECTINGRESEARCHTOCANADIANS

UrsulaGobelAnticipationConference,UK

November2017

Our role

Federalagencymandatedtopromoteandsupportpostsecondary-basedresearchandtraininginthesocialsciencesandhumanities

Throughgrants,fellowshipsandscholarshipsSSHRC:

↘ Trainsthenextgenerationoftalented,creativethinkersanddoers

↘ Buildsknowledgeandunderstandingaboutpeople,culturesandsocieties

↘ Drivestheinnovationsthataddressthechallengesoftodayandtomorrow

Ursula Gobel

*$380.2millionforgrants,fellowshipsandscholarships

4,300volunteerexternalassessorsandexpertssupportthereviewoffundingapplications.

$0.94outofeveryallocateddollargoesdirectlytofundresearchersandstudents

Morethan4,300newgrants,fellowshipsandscholarshipsawarded

Over13,000fundingapplicationsreceivedFast Facts

Ursula Gobel

SSHRC’SCOMMUNITY

Canada’sSocialSciencesandHumanitiesResearchCommunity

21,000DoctoralstudentsinSSH

48,000MastersstudentsinSSH

24,000full-timeSSHfacultyteachers

SSHRC Support (as of 2016-2017)

9,600Awards

18,600ResearchersSupported↘ 3,400 International Researchers

8,400StudentsSupported↘ 4,700 Directly (scholarships) ↘ 3,700 Indirectly (grants)

3,200Partners↘ 330 Industry Partners

1,630PostdoctoralFellowsinCanada

Ursula Gobel

Enableexcellenceina

changingresearchlandscape

1Create

opportunitiesforresearchandtraining

throughcollaborativeinitiatives

2Connect

socialsciencesandhumanitiesresearch

withCanadians

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OURSTRATEGICPRIORITIES:ADVANCING KNOWLEDGE FOR CANADA’S FUTURE

Ursula Gobel

2016-2020SSHRCStrategicPriorities ImaginingCanada’sFutureObjectives

Enableexcellenceinachangingresearchlandscape

Buildresearchpreparednessandgaincriticalinsightsintofuturechallengeareas

Createopportunitiesforresearchandtrainingthroughcollaborativeinitiative

Expandcross-sectorcollaborationandpartnershipswhileleveragingadditionalfundingforresearchandtraining

ConnectsocialsciencesandhumanitiesresearchwithCanadians

Mobilizeknowledgetoinformdecision-makingacrossthepublic,privateandnot-for-profitsectors

BUILDINGFUTURESLITERACY

Ursula Gobel

FOCUSONSIXFUTURECHALLENGEAREAS

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NewWaysofLearning QuestforEnergy&NaturalResources EmergingTechnologies

ASuccessfulSharedFuturewithIndigenousPeoples

InterconnectedandEvolvingGlobalLandscape

GlobalPeakPopulation

Ursula Gobel

❑ 5KnowledgeSynthesisGrantscompetitions

❑ Multi-sector advisory groups provided input to

shape calls for proposals

❑ 123 KSG grants awarded (up to $25K)

❑ $3M invested

2014-2017ICFImplementationPlanStakeholderEngagement-KnowledgeSynthesis&Mobilization-Partnerships&Collaborations

Ursula Gobel

EXTENSIVEMULTI-SECTORENGAGEMENT

❑ 5 workshops and 4 forums organized

❑ Over 1,250 participants: researchers,

students, policy officials, community

and business sector representatives

❑ Extensive participation and support

from public policy sector

Ursula Gobel

- Op-edsbyKSGholderspublished

- SSHRCSummaryReportsonkeyfindingspublished

- InternationalcollaborationwithEmbassies

- Newrelationshipsbuiltbetweenresearchersand

non-academicpartners

- Scalinguptonewresearchprojectsand

applicationsinSSHRC’sfundingprograms

KnowledgeMobilization

Ursula Gobel

ExtensiveStakeholderEngagementandCollaboration

Ursula Gobel

ForesightonSocietalFutures

ResearchonEmergingIssues

FuturesinResearch&Training

SocietalTrends/Themes

ResearchinthePublicInterest

EmergingscholarlyIssues/themes

Leadership,Responsiveness,Flexibility,Agility

ICF2018-2021Framework

Ursula Gobel

ICF2018-2021Implementation

Scanning–Engaging–Implementing

January–June2018Conductforesightactivities:

·CompleteHorizonScan·Convenestakeholdersandpartnersacrossacademic,public,business&not-for-profitsectors·IntegrateSSHRCenvironmentalscanningandKSGfindingsIFC2014-2017·Ongoing:ResearchonEmergingIssues;Futuresinresearchandscholarship

July–December2018·ValidateHorizonScanfindings·ICFFallForum2018·IdentifyFutureChallenges·Ongoing:ResearchonEmergingIssues;Futuresinresearchandscholarship

January2019–March2021·Assessanddevelopactionplantoaddressfuturechallenges-Maintainactivestakeholderengagement·Ongoing:ResearchonEmergingIssues;Futuresinresearchandscholarship

Ursula Gobel

THANKYOU!

URSULAGOBEL,ASSOCIATEVICE-PRESIDENT,FUTURECHALLENGES

[email protected]@ULACAN1

@SSHRC_CRSH FACEBOOK YOUTUBE

mailto:[email protected]


How can foresight inform & inspire critical public policy options?

Greg Van Alstyne Associate Professor, Faculty of Design Director, sLabOCAD University, Toronto

Policy Foresight: What Works & Why?

Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.ca

FOUNDED HERE 2008

Strategic Innovation Lab (sLab) is a centre of excellence at OCAD University We bring positive impact through foresight, design thinking, social innovation

Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne | sLab | OCAD University SFI + sLab Overview

sLab Groups

Flourishing Strongly Sustainable Business Models Systems Systemic Design Research Network SystemCityWellness Envision Health Communication Media Futures DEMO

Researchers include Profs. Bowes, Candy, Davies, Harfoush, Hunt, Jones, Kerr, Logan, Richards, Sellen, Stein, Van Alstyne

Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.ca

Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? photo: flickr.com/photos/emio_me/431872537/

Why does policy need foresight?

“Research foresight is...the only plausible response to resolving conflicts over priority-setting.... Foresight provides … a systematic mechanism for coping with that complexity & interdependence as it affects long-term decisions on research, in particular facilitating policy-making where integration of activities across several fields is vital”—Martin & Irvine (1989, 3)

Greg Van Alstyne | sLab.ocadu.ca


Principles & Projects

Co-Creation Economic Futures for Ontario 2032Participation DesignJam Strangemaking Futures of Democracy


Co-Creation“…creativity of designers and people not trained in design, working together in the design development process”—Sanders & Stappers (2008), Co-creation and the New Landscapes of Design

Economic Futures for Ontario 2032 Van Alstyne, Richards, Kerr, Harfoush, Stein, Schroeder, Chandler sLab & Ontario Public Service (OPS) co-facilitated & co-authored the study

xxx


Emerging and interconnected economies Will jurisdictional trade relations and economic power balance be:

Friendly Characterized by collaborative competition

Unfriendly Characterized by selective/exclusive trade relations

Climate change

Will predictability, pace, and human management of climate change be:

Progressive Changing at a manageable pace

Volatile Rapid, unpredictable, challenging change

Game-changing technologies

Will diffusion, control and accessibility of key technologies be:

Ubiquitous More widespread, accessible, or open

Concentrated More constrained, controlled, or closed

Economic Futures for Ontario 2032Critical Uncertainties

iSurvivor

Illustration: (cc) Ryan Lake

Dark & Stormy Night

Ontario Galactica

Northern Stars

Economic Futures for Ontario 2032: Scenarios


Why “co-creation”?

“When participants bring something unique into being, they do so with attention, passion, care and creativity— less administration and management, more ‘parenting’" —Van Alstyne, 2013, Co-creating Foresight in Government

(cc) http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Baby_on_Back.jpg

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Baby_on_Back.jpg


Participation


Design G. Van Alstyne S. Davies P. Robinson

Why “participation”?


“…ordinary citizens… are neither allowed to participate in defining the goals of a society, nor are their visions of desirable societies taken seriously by the ruling elite, except as part of electoral calculations…. Futures studies seek to subvert such status quo …[&] keep options open”—Nandy, 1996, Bearing Witness to the Future


Strangemaking

Futures of [Open] Democracy Profs. Candy & Van Alstyne“Time Machine”: C. Connolly, L. Dempsey, R. Memmel, A. Satterthwaite, J. Sharrock


Why “strangemaking”?


“Is there a danger of bringing too much imagination to these problems? Do we risk losing ourselves in a maze of bizarre improbabilities? …It has usually been the lack of imagination, rather than the excess of it, that has caused unfortunate decisions and missed opportunities.”

—Kahn, Paradigm for the 1965–1975 Strategic Debate, 3

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Peter H. Jones @redesign SFI, OCAD University, Toronto Karl Schroeder @karlschroeder Futurist, advisor, author, Toronto Ursula Gobel @ulacan1 AVP Future Challenges, SSHRC, Ottawa Greg Van Alstyne @gregvan sLab, OCAD University, Toronto

Modes of Foresight in informing public policy and decision-making

modes of foresight in informing public policy and...

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