modelo de nitratos in europa...giovanni bidoglio joint research centre institute for environment and...

Madrid, 29th March 2007

Modelo de nitratos in Europa

Giovanni Bidoglio

Joint Research CentreInstitute for Environment and Sustainability

Ispra (VA), Italy


ContentLessons from the implementation of EU Directives

Pressures and impacts indicators across a range of scales


What messages come from the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive?

• Driving forces are clear:– Agriculture, diffuse pollution– Navigation, hydropower, flood protection, physical modifications – Industries and municipalities, point sources – Over exploitation (Mediterranean)

• Economic analysis as one of the main shortcomings

• Integration with other policies


River water bodies (potentially) at risk

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EE CY LU PL PT FR SK LT LV AT ES IE DE BE UK CZ

Insufficient data (%)At risk (%)

Some Art. 5 results: Risk analysis


OdensePRB

Agriculture as main risk sector in the Odense Pilot River Basin:

Conclusions of the PRB Article 5 Provisional Report

• Water courses will not achieve ”good ecological status”due to hydromorphological conditions and/or waste water discharges

• Lakes will not achieve ”good ecological status” primarily due to nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) loadings, primarily from agricultural sources

• Odense Fjord – as lakes, incl. hazardous substances• Groundwater will (locally) not achieve ”good qualitative

status” due to haz. subst., pesticides and nitrate


In 2000-2003, 17% of EU groundwater monitoring stations had nitrate concentrations above 50 mg NO3/l; 7% were in the range 40 to 50 mg NO3/l and 15% in the range 25-40 mg NO3/l

What can we learn from the Nitrates Directive?

{COM(2007) 120 final} 19/03/2007


Trends in average groundwater nitrate concentrations

{COM(2007) 120 final} 19/03/2007


Yearly average nitrate concentrations below 10 mg NO3/l were observed in 53% of the surface water monitoring stations and equal or below 2 mg NO3/l in 19% of monitoring stations (mountainous areas). In 2,5% of the monitoring stations concentrations exceeded 50 mg NO3/l and in 4% values were in the range 40 to 50 mg NO3/l

{COM(2007) 120 final} 19/03/2007


Designation of Nitrates Vulnerable Zones


Key Questions

Where are major pressures located in Europe?

Where are the areas that require specific protection due to their environmental sensitivity?

Where there is a need for changing current land-use systems in order to arrive at a sustainable management of water and agriculture?


Scenario analysisScenario analysis

Modelling-based assessment in a nested context

Modelling-based assessment in a nested context

Results, reports, maps, recommendations

Results, reports, maps, recommendations

Support a number of environmental

EU Directives

•Water Framework Directive, Nitrates, Groundwater, UWWT, etc.

•Strategies on Sustainable Use of Pesticides, Marine, Soil Protection

Policy Support

Support a number of environmental

EU Directives

•Water Framework Directive, Nitrates, Groundwater, UWWT, etc.

•Strategies on Sustainable Use of Pesticides, Marine, Soil Protection

Policy Support

Pressures and impacts indicators across a range of scales:

the FATE concept


Where are arable crops in Europe?

Statistical crop data extracted from Eurostat’s Farm Structure Survey and Swiss Federal Statistics Office

Barley

Common wheatRape seeds

SugarbeetSunflower

and from observations at the nodes of the LUCAS grid


Statistical data from CAPRI economic model and EUROSTAT spatially distributed on a 10x10 Km grid by using CORINE land cover

Where is manure applied?

Nitrogen input via manure application

Where are fertilisersapplied?

Nitrogen input via application of fertilisers


Gross nitrogen balance = (mineral fertilisers + livestock manure + biological fixation + atmospheric deposition) – crop uptake

Spatialised gross nitrogen balance per total surface average on 10 km2 area


A low-data requirement modelling approach delivering information on:

In-stream losses•plant growth•atmospheric losses•nutrient settling

Diffuse Sources•mineral fertilisers•manure•atmospheric deposition•scattered dwellings

Diffuse losses•crop uptake•soil storage•atmospheric losses

Point Sources•UWWTP•Industries•Paved areas

From EU-wide screening to source apportionment

Load = (DS * B * R + PS * R )

B = f(Precipitation) R = f(river length)


Calibration and analysis of pressures in large European river basins

Estimate nutrient pressures from waste water treatment plants… assess contributions from atmospheric deposition……and determine nitrogen and phosphorous pressures due to agriculture at sub-basin scale

Calibration and analysis of model performance


Relative source contributions to river nitrates loads

DANUBE

RHINE

ELBE

WESER

MEUSE

RHONEEBRO

SEINESEINE


Nitrogen Diffuse Emissions: input of nitrogen into surface waters originated from diffuse sources

average on a 10x10 Km grid

Extrapolation to the European scale


Nitrogen Source Apportionment: contribution of each source (point and diffuse) to nitrogen loads to major rivers


TIER 1Continental scale

The model GREEN (Grizzetti, 2006) is used at large-river basin scale on a annual basis as a screening tool to identify catchments at risk.

The FATE tiered modelling approachTier 1: large river basin scale – assessment of hot

spots




TIER 2Catchment scale

The physically-based SWAT (Arnold et al., 1998) model is used to identify the major processes and pathways controlling and contributing to nutrient losses. SWAT requires more detailed information than the TIER 1 approach and is appropriate for evaluating alternative strategies at the basin level.

Groundwater contribution to

NO3 load >80%

The FATE tiered modelling approachTier 2: catchment scale – identification of processes




TIER 2Catchment scale

The physically-based SWAT (Arnold et al., 1998) model is used to identify the major processes and pathways controlling and contributing to nutrient losses. SWAT requires more detailed information than the TIER 1 approach and is appropriate for evaluating alternative strategies at the basin level.

Groundwater contribution to

NO3 load >80%

TIER 3Field-farm scale

O

This last step involves the use of the farm-scale model EPIC(Williams, 1995) to elaborate appropriate farming practicesthat could reduce pollution load without endangering the farm economic sustainability.

Introducing a winter catch-crop after a corn cultivation can reduce the leaching of nitrate by 15% without reducing the corn yield.

Impact of a catch crop on NO3 leaching

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

PRKN_scen (kg/ha)PRKN (kg/ha)

PRK (mm)

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leac

hing

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er, m

m; N

o3, k

g-N

/ha)

Percolation water (mm)

NO3 leaching baseline (kgN/ha)

NO3 leaching with catch crop (kgN/ha)

The FATE tiered modelling approachTier 3: farm scale – evaluation of practices/PoM


Scenario analysis on climate change impactsEAGLE: European Agrochemical Geospatial Loss Estimatorversatile tool allowing the assessment of the fate of agrochemicals at EU level

3 components:• EPIC model• Database• GIS Interface

5 Global Climate Models:

A1A1

B2B2B1B1

A2A2

Economic growth

Environmental protection

RegionalGlobal

PCM (Washington et al., 2000)

HadCM3 (Mitchell et al. (1998)

ECHAM4 (Roeckner et al., 1996)

CSIRO2 (Gordon and O’Farrell, 1997)

CGCM2 (Flato and Boer, 2001)

PCM (Washington et al., 2000)

HadCM3 (Mitchell et al. (1998)

ECHAM4 (Roeckner et al., 1996)

CSIRO2 (Gordon and O’Farrell, 1997)

CGCM2 (Flato and Boer, 2001)

4 Story lines:


Agreement in increase > 10%

Agreement in decrease > 10%

Nutrients RequirementCrop YieldCrop Water Requirement

Story line A1


PandivereEstonia

OdenseDenmark

RibbleUK

WeserGermany

NeissePoland

Zagyva-TarnaHungary

PiniosGreece

Gascogne-GaronneFrance

GuadalquivirSpain

The Pilot River Basins: Networking regional experience on WFD-Agriculture


The Agri-environment Programme2000-2006 in Andalucia, Spain

1. Extensification of production

2. Breed and strain preservation

3. Rationalization in chemical products use

4. Fight against erosion

5. Protection of flora and fauna in wetlands

6. Production systems of high environmental value

8. Protection of landscape and fire prevention

9. Integrated farm management

7. Savings in water uses and encouragement of extensification

Type: Instrument-Basic (R CE (1257/1999)

Pressure targeted: Fertilizer, pesticides

Management practice: Source controls

Area involved: 48.631 Ha

Temporal coverage: 2000-2006

Estimated cost: 182 €/ha

Total cost: 8.871 103 €

Organic farming (2003)


Conclusions

FATE provides:

Spatial data at EU level

Integration of broad aspects of pollutant pressures from point and diffuse sources on waters at different scales

Evaluation of impacts of alternative programmes of measures, agricultural practices and future climate scenarios

The FATE tiered modelling approach�Tier 1: large river basin scale – assessment of hot spotsThe FATE tiered modelling approach�Tier 2: catchment scale – identification of processesScenario analysis on climate change impacts�Conclusions

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