modelling sector demands p.r. shukla. long-term supply & demand technology-mix, fuel-mix,...

Modelling Sector Demands

P.R. Shukla

Long-term Supply & Demand Technology-Mix, Fuel-Mix, Emission, Cost

Energy Sector Optimization Model (MARKAL)

Long-Term Demand

Projection ModelTechnology Shares

End-useDemand

Transport Agriculture Residential CommercialIndustry

Urban Rural

Steel

Cement Aluminum Sugar

Chlor-Alkali Paper Brick

Textiles Fertilizer Others

End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM)

Integrated Bottom-Up Modeling System

Indian Economy

Transport Agriculture Residential CommercialIndustry

Urban Rural

Steel

Cement Aluminum Sugar

Chlor-Alkali Paper Brick

Textiles Fertilizer Others

End-use Sub-Sector Models (AIM)

Sectors in Indian AIM/ENDUSE Model

AIM/ENDUSE Model for India: Demand Projections

GDP

Transport GVA

Commercial GVA

Agriculture GVA

Industry GVA

FCE

PFCE

Passenger GVA

Freight GVA

Rail Road Air Rail Road Water

Steel mt

Aluminum mt

Cement mt

Brick no.

Paper mt

Textile metre

Sugar mt

Chlor-Alkali mt

Fertilizer mt

Oth. Ind. GVA

Electricity PJ

LPG PJ

KerosenePJ

HSDPJ

FuelwoodPJ

IrrigationPJ

TillingPJ

ThreshingPJ

Urban HhPFCE

Rural Hh PFCE

Lighting lumen hrs

Cooking PJ

Appliances No./ PJ

Electricity mt

Coalmt

HSDmt

Fuel-Oilmt

GDP

Transport GVA

Commercial GVA

Agriculture GVA

Industry GVA

FCE

PFCE

Passenger GVA

Freight GVA


Steel mt

Aluminum mt

Cement mt

Brick no.

Paper mt

Textile metre

Sugar mt

Chlor-Alkali mt

Fertilizer mt

Oth. Ind. GVA

Electricity PJ

LPG PJ

KerosenePJ

HSDPJ

FuelwoodPJ

IrrigationPJ

TillingPJ

ThreshingPJ

Urban HhPFCE

Rural Hh PFCE

Lighting lumen hrs

Cooking PJ

Appliances No./ PJ

Electricity mt

Coalmt

HSDmt

Fuel-Oilmt

GDP

Transport GVA

Commercial GVA

Agriculture GVA

Industry GVA

FCE

PFCE

Passenger GVA

Freight GVA


Steel mt

Aluminum mt

Cement mt

Brick no.

Paper mt

Textile metre

Sugar mt

Chlor-Alkali mt

Fertilizer mt

Oth. Ind. GVA

Electricity PJ

LPG PJ

KerosenePJ

HSDPJ

FuelwoodPJ

IrrigationPJ

TillingPJ

ThreshingPJ

Urban HhPFCE

Rural Hh PFCE

Lighting lumen hrs

Cooking PJ

Appliances No./ PJ

Electricity mt

Coalmt

HSDmt

Fuel-Oilmt

GDP

Transport GVA

Commercial GVA

Agriculture GVA

Industry GVA

FCE

PFCE

Passenger GVA

Freight GVA


Steel mt

Aluminum mt

Cement mt

Brick no.

Paper mt

Textile metre

Sugar mt

Chlor-Alkali mt

Fertilizer mt

Oth. Ind. GVA

Electricity PJ

LPG PJ

KerosenePJ

HSDPJ

FuelwoodPJ

IrrigationPJ

TillingPJ

ThreshingPJ

Urban HhPFCE

Rural Hh PFCE

Lighting lumen hrs

Cooking PJ

Appliances No./ PJ

Electricity mt

Coalmt

HSDmt

Fuel-Oilmt

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

Ste

el (

mil

lion

ton

)

Sectoral Demand Projection: Logistic Regression

Demand Projection for Steel

In ((Yt / Yo)/(1- Yt / Yo)) = a + bt

t = time period

Yt = level of demand at time t

Y0 = asymptotic limit for the demand Yt

a,b : Parameters to be estimated

exp(a + bt)1+exp(a + bt)

Yt = Y0

GVA Charts

GDP

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Bil

lion

Rs.

Low Growth Medium High Growth

Industry GVA

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Bil

lion

Rs.


Transport GVA

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Bil

lion

Rs.


Commercial GVA

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Bil

lion

Rs.


Agriculture GVA

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Bil

lion

Rs.


PFCE

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Bil

lion

Rs.


Smelting reduction furnace

Blast furnace

Sintering Machine

Coke Oven

Basic Oxygen furnace /OH

Caster

Reheating furnace

Annealing furnace

Reheating furnace

Electric arc

furnace

DRI

Power device

Sp. Iron Scrap

Nat. Gas (NGA)

Cold rolled steel prod.

Hot rolled steel prod.

ZSS

Terminal

Purchased coke (COK)

Iron ore (YIR) Limestone (CEK) Coal (COL) Purchased

Electricity (ELI)

Coke oven gas

Terminal

Terminal

Terminal

Terminal

Terminal Blast furnace

gas

Utility

Independent Power Plant

Basic Oxygen furnace gas

Electricity Heat

Hot coke

Sinter

Hot metal

Molten steel

Slabs, blooms, billets

Hot rolled steel products

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad

Steel Process Figure

Steel Demand Projection

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Mil

lion

Ton

s


Aluminum Demand Projection

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Mil

lion

Ton

s


Cement Process Figure

Grinding

Kiln

Cement

Packing

Lime StoneElectricityCoal Fuel Oil

Clay

Raw meal

Clinker

Cement


Grinding

Kiln

Cement

Packing

Lime StoneElectricityCoal Fuel Oil

Clay

Raw meal

Clinker

Cement


Cement Demand Projection

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Mil

lion

Ton

s


Paper Process FigureHard Wood

Mechanical pulp

Chemical pulp

Hydro pulp

Bleaching of pulp

Stock preparation

Paper Machine

Agri. residue Waste Paper

Caustic Soda

Finished Products

Electricity Coal Utility


Hard Wood

Mechanical pulp

Chemical pulp

Hydro pulp

Bleaching of pulp

Stock preparation

Paper Machine

Agri. residue Waste Paper

Caustic Soda

Finished Products

Electricity Coal Utility


Paper Demand Projection

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Mil

lion

Ton

s


Brick Process Figure

Bull Trench Kiln

Coal

VSBK High Draught Kiln Clamps

Biomass

Bricks


Bull Trench Kiln

Coal

VSBK High Draught Kiln Clamps

Biomass

Bricks


Brick Demand Projection

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Bil

lion

No.'

s


Fertilizer Demand Projection

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Mil

lion

Ton

s


Caustic Soda Process Figure Salt

Brine Preparation &

Purification

ElectricityCoal

Caustic Soda

Brine Electrolysis

Evaporation &

Salt Preparation

Utility


Salt

Brine Preparation &

Purification

ElectricityCoal

Caustic Soda

Brine Electrolysis

Evaporation &

Salt Preparation

Utility


Caustic Soda Demand Projection

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Mil

lion

Ton

s


Soda Ash Demand Projection

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Mil

lion

Ton

s


Sugar Demand Projection

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Mil

lion

Ton

s


Textile Demand Projection

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Mil

lion

mts

.


Transport Technology Options

ROAD Vehicles

PASSENGERGOODS

2-Wheeler Heavy Truck (Diesel)

3-Wheeler Light Truck (Diesel)

Petrol Car Heavy Truck (CNG)

Diesel Car Light Truck (CNG)

CNG Car

RAIL Vehicles

Steam Loco

Diesel Loco

Electric Loco

Reference Energy System for Transport

Gasoline

Heavy Oil

Diesel

CNG

Electricity

Coal

ATF

2-W

3-W

4-W

Bus

HCV

LCV

Diesel Train

Electric Train

Passenger Aircraft

Steam Train

Ship

Road PKMS

Road TKMS

Rail TKMS

Air PKMS

Water TKMS

Rail PKMS

Growth of Traffic in India

Passenger (Billion PKms) Goods (Billion TKms)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Road Rail Air

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Road Rail Air

0

900

1800

2700

3600

4500

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Road Rail

0

900

1800

2700

3600

4500

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Road Rail

Road Freight Demand Projections

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Bil

lion

TK

MS


Road Passenger Demand Projections

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Bil

lion

PK

MS


Air Passenger Transport Demand Projections

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Bil

lion

PK

MS


Ship Freight Transport Demand Projections

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Bil

lion

TK

MS


Rail Passenger Transport Demand Projections

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Bil

lion

PK

MS


Rail Freight Transport Demand Projections

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Bil

lion

TK

MS


modelling sector demands p.r. shukla. long-term supply & demand technology-mix, fuel-mix,...

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