modelling climate change impacts on woodlands james morison centre for forestry & climate change...
TRANSCRIPT
Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Woodlands
James MorisonCentre for Forestry & Climate Change
Duncan RayCentre for Human & Ecological Sciences
Climate Impacts Modelling Conference, 19-20 March, Gregynog
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Adaptation: assist and encourage forest planners, managers, and owners in adapting forests and woodlands to the changing climate, and using those woodlands to help society adapt.
Managing Forest C and GHG balances: understand and quantify C stocks, and processes determining changes, and how management influences GHG balance.
Protecting Soil and Water Resources: evaluate the impact of forests and woodlands on soil and water resources to support the
development and implementation of sustainable forest management. Land Use and Ecosystem Services: the role of trees,
woodlands and forest in delivering ecosystem services, and the role of biodiversity in provisioning ecosystem services; landscape scale.
FR Climate Change programmes
Introduction
All using climate change information, models and data
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Outline
Examples of recent research on climate change impacts by FR:
• Expert system tree species suitability models with CC projections
• Linking ESC to forestry ‘yield models’ for energy forestry projections
• Using process models for forest growth and for short rotation coppice
• Forest & woodland planning
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright4
Growing season temperature change
(accumulated temperature anomaly relative to 1961-1990 year mean)
Average of Aberporth, Ross and Valley
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Year
AT
emp
erat
ure
An
om
aly
+10%
-10%
Recent climate trends in Wales
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Modelling tree species suitability
Using climate projections for adaptation recommendations
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Analysing key climatic drivers
Accumulated Temperature > 5oC (day.°C), 2080
See: www.ukcip.org.uk, www.forestry.gov.uk/climatechange/wales
Moisture Deficit (mm), 2080
(Using UKCIP02)
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Frequency of dry summers
Projected frequency of Moisture Deficit ≤ 200 mm
(2091-2100)
Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland, C4I, http://www.c4i.ie/
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Calculating probability
Projected change in frequency of SMD (High emissions)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
40 70 100 130 160 190 220 260
annual Moisture Deficit - MD [mm]
Cu
mu
lati
ve
fre
qu
en
cy
2020s
2040s
2060s
2080s
Baseline
Suitable Unsuitable
Moisture deficit (mm)
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
ESC-DSS
‘Expert system’ that focuses on key factors of sites that influence tree growth of different species• Accumulated temperature• Soil moisture deficit• Windiness•Continentality, climatic zones• Soil moisture regime• Soil nutrient regime
The Ecological Site Classification Decision Support System (ESC-DSS)
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
ESC-DSS
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Response curves ESC-DSS
PotentialYield Class (Spp.)
Moisture deficit
Windiness
Continentality
Soil moisture regime
Soil nutrient regime
Yield Class = PYC x min(MDf, Df, Cf, SMf, SNf)
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
ESC projections
Sitka spruce
2050, High 2080, High
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Species diversity guidance 2010
• East and south Wales are most at risk of drought and provide the best opportunities for change. Review planting proposals for vulnerable sites – shallow soils, south facing and, or, dry sites
• In west Wales, target plantings at lower elevations on better soils for opportunities to diversify tree species
• For conifer blocks, presume Douglas fir and other redwoods will be the preferred where site and exposure allow
• Limited opportunities in the exposed peaty gley dominated uplands. Presume ALL opportunities will be taken to utilise site variations to increase species diversity
• Improve and expand existing habitat networks (for example ancient woodland, native woodland and riparian zones) will be the focus of expansion of native species
• Create stands of mixed conifer and broadleaf where it will meet strategic and local objectives
Advice supporting policy on adaptation measures
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Sycamore SRF yield
Change in % sycamore yield,2050/baseline
(assumed 20 year rotation)
Eric Casella & colleagues, FR, project for UKERC
-100% 0 +100%
Combining ESC suitability with forestry Yield Models
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Modelling SRC willow
Process-based model, ForestGrowth-SRC
Matt Tallis, Southampton Univ., Eric Casella, FR, project for UKERC
•Soil input data: Harmonised World Soils Data (HWSD v1.1) •Meteorological input data : 25km2 monthly variables•Future climate scenarios: UKCP09 SCP (2020 to 2050) low, med, high emissions
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Modelling SRC willow
1 km2 resolutionHWSD
1990-2000 climate
Matt Tallis, Southampton Univ., Eric Casella, FR, project for UKERC
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Straits Inclosure CO2 flux site, Alice Holt
(Matt Wilkinson, Mark Broadmeadow, Ed Eaton et al. , FR)
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
SPA modelling of woodland CO2 fluxes
Mat Williams, Univ. Edinburgh, Eric Casella, FR
2007 2008 2009
Not capturing early canopy development
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Spring leafing variability2009
(Toshie Mizunuma, Univ. Edinburgh, Matt Wilkinson, FR)
4th May
2010
2011
Climate & phenology
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Modelling phenology and CO2 flux
Using camera images to derive vegetation indices to use in light interception models of GPP
Toshie Mizunuma, Univ. Edinburgh, Matt Wilkinson, FR
Implications also for other woodland biodiversity
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Forest planning case studies
MOTIVE case study in Clocaenog forest :• effects of climate change on tree growth, species suitability and wind risk• effect of adaptation through species diversification on sustainability indicators•predict and optimise forest design plans.•measure impacts on various sustainability indicators (GVA, biodiversity, C stock, recreation, jobs etc…)
(Bruce Nicoll & colleagues, FR, with European partners)
Forest Design assessed under two scenarios:• Traditional conservative, ‘private forest company’, replacing like with like• Adaptive, forward thinking, more mixed species and age stands
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Impacts of diversification
‘BAU’
‘Adaptation’
Stakeholders (planners) consulted about changes to tree species and forest management system
CC projections link to multi-disciplinary adaptation research
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Other areas of climate change impacts research• Abiotic risks
• wind, fire, flood• Biotic risks:
• pests and pathogens: types, species, incidence, severity, timing• invasive species
• Socio-economic impacts• Valuation, jobs, financial risk,
• Operational consequences • timing of operations, • altered infrastructure requirements
• Planning and policy • Peatland restoration• Woodfuel demand; re-introducing management• Urban greenspace development
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
Summary
• Multiple aspects of FR’s research are on climate change
• Impacts, Adaptation, Mitigation• Mixture of CC impacts modelling
• ‘expert knowledge’ model on species suitability• Semi-empirical yield models• Process models for energy crops, woodland C• Spatial modelling critical• Socio-economic modelling• Strong link to evidence and experiments
• Abiotic risk: wind, fire• Biotic risk: pest & pathogen• Key elements of multi-disciplinary assessment of
future woodland and forest management
20th March 2012 www.forestry.gov.uk/forestresearch© Crown copyright
© CROWN COPYRIGHT 2012
This presentation is subject to Crown Copyright. It is provided on the condition that, as expressly stated elsewhere in Forestry Commission rules, the licensee shall keep confidential the contents of the presentation or any part thereof, and shall not disclose the same to any third party without the prior written approval of the Forestry Commission. The licensee cannot, without the prior written consent of the Forestry Commission, modify the contents of this presentation. If these conditions are not acceptable to the licensee, the presentation is to be returned to the originator.
DISCLAIMER. No responsibility for loss occasioned to any person or organisation acting, or refraining from action, as a result of any material in this presentation can be accepted by the Forestry Commission.
Thank you !