modeling water balance and water productivity in cropsyst model m. glazirina, d. turner
DESCRIPTION
Modeling water balance and water productivity in CropSyst model M. Glazirina, D. Turner. CropSyst model description . CropSyst. = “Cropping Systems Simulation Model” programmed in C++ (object-oriented) by Prof. C. Stöckle and R. Nelson - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Modeling water balance and water productivity in CropSyst model
M. Glazirina, D. Turner
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CropSyst model description
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CropSyst= “Cropping Systems Simulation Model”• programmed in C++ (object-oriented)
by Prof. C. Stöckle and R. Nelson (Visual Basic for Application version available)
• multi-year, multi-crop, daily time step simulation model
• based on the understanding of plants, soil, weather and management interactions– phenological development– photosynthesis and growth– stress effects (water, N, salt, (K))– root water uptake
• Distributed free of charge via http://www.bsyse.wsu.edu/cropsyst/
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CropSyst - some detail• provides a
– generic crop-growth component, allows adaptation/calibration to any crop; species and cultivars are characterized by a set of parameters which determine crop response to the environment
– link to the GIS-software Arc/Info (spatial application)– report format editor for setting up output style, e.g. MS-Excel – fast graphics viewer
• is very well documented, maintained and regularly updated!
More specifically• considers the influence of soil salinity and shallow groundwater table,• allows using a finite difference solution of Richards equation to simulate
water transport.• handles conservation agriculture features (to some extent)
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Input-output fluxes in CropSyst
Runoff
Water risePercolationLeaching
Rainfall Evapotranspiration
Volatilization
CROP
SOILSoil loss
Management:irrigationtillage Fertilizationharvest
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Crop processes in CropSyst
development growth light interception net photosynthesis biomass
partitioning leaf expansion roots deepening
leaf senescence water uptake nitrogen uptake water stress nitrogen stress light stress
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Soil processes in CropSyst
water infiltration water
redistribution runoff evaporation percolation solutes transport salinization nitrogen fixation
residues fate O.M.
mineralization nitrogen
transformations water erosion ammonia
volatilization ammonium
sorption
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CropSyst data requirmentsSoil:
• Texture• Hydraulic properties
(bulk density, PWP, FC)
• Chemistry (CEC, pH)
Soil:• Soil moisture• NO3-N and NH4-N• SOM• Salinity
Weather:• Precipitation• Tmax, Tmin• RHmax, RHmin• Solar radiation• Wind speed
Management:• Tillage• Irrigation• Fertilization• Harvest
Ground water and salinity
Crop:• Phenology• N-uptake• AGB• Yield
Soil:• Soil moisture• NO3-N and NH4-N• SOM• Soil salinity
Crop model
Constant: Changing in time: Used for calibration:
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Water balance components in CropSyst model
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Water balance equation
P + I = ET + Inf + R + DS Where:
The incoming water balance components:P - precipitation (including snow)I - irrigation
The outgoing water balance components are:ET - Evapotranspiration Inf - Infiltration of waterR - Surface runoff (natural) or surface drainage (artificial)
DS is the change of water storage
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Evapotranspiration model
• Penman-Monteith– data requirements:
precipitation, max. temp., min temp., solar radiation, wind speed, max relative humidity, min relative humidity
• Priestley-Taylor– data requirements:
precipitation, max. temp., min temp., solar radiation
comprehensive, precise
simple, less precise
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Penman-MonteithOriginal:
Small modification in CropSyst:f(e) = DayFrac x VPDday_mean
Fraction of day in daylight
RN = net radiation [W m-2]G = soil heat flux [W m-2]f(e) = VPD (vapor pressure deficit) [hPa]
Δ(RN-G)
radiation term aerodynamic term
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Priestley-TaylorΔ (RN-G) Δ+γ
Priestley-Taylor "constant"• compensates for the elimination of the aerodynamic term
(of the Penman or PM-model)• default 1.26, higher in arid regions
AVOID USING Priestley-Taylor ET in arid regions!
λET = PTc x
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Surface runoffTwo options:1. SCS curve number
(CN) approach (USDA-SCS, 1988)
2. numerical solution
Erosion• RUSLE parameters:
- Steepness (a percentage 0-100)- Slope length (m)
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Curve number (CN)
Surf
ace
runo
ff [p
ropo
rtio
n of
ra
infa
ll]
Daily rainfall = 70 mm40 mm
10 mm
PAW=0.5
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Soil water infiltration & redistribution
• CropSyst provides basically two different models for choice:1. cascade2. finite difference
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Cascade model• each given soil layer is defined by:
– water content at saturation (SAT) – water content at drained upper limit (DUL, FC)– the permanent wilting point (PWP)
• The difference between SAT and the current soil water content (Theta, Θ) determines the capacity of the layer to hold additional water
• After infiltration events, a fraction of water in excess of DUL is drained based on a drainage rate constant
• If Theta for the lowest soil layer exceeds DUL, the excess water is assumed to drain out of the profile
• If the potential drainage for a layer is very large, the net drainage may be limited by the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks).
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Finite difference model• builds on the Richards equation
– common flow equation for (un)saturated flow in porous media (as a soil can be considered)
– is a parabolic non-linear partial differential equation of secondary order, which is solved numerically by a finite difference approach
• requires a parameterization (continuous form) of the soil hydraulic properties via:
– soil water retention characteristics pF-curve– soil hydraulic conductivity SHC-curve
CropSyst uses the so-called Campbell approach
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Soil hydraulics according to Campbell• Soil water potential
of layer l, ψsl:
ψsl = -a x WCl –b
whereas
a = e (ln(33) + b x ln(WC-33))
[ln(-1500/-33] [ln(WC-33/WC-1500)]
• Soil hydraulic conductivity:
K = Ks x (Θ/ Θs) c
whereas
c = 2b + 3
• air entry potential = (-a x Θs -b)
b =0
0.05
0.10.15
0.20.250.3
0.350.4
0.450.5
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000Soil water potential [hPa]
Soi
l moi
stur
e [c
m³ c
m- ³]
Loam, observed
van Genuchten
Campbell
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1 10 100 1000 10000h [hPa]
K [c
m/d
]
van Genuchten
Campbell
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Output• Daily report• Seasonal report• Annual report• specific files:
– cum_water_depth.xls
– hydraulic_properties.xls
– water_content.xls– water_depth.xls– water_potential.xls– …
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Output• Water entering soil = Precipitation + Irrigation - Interception (crop&residue)• Precipitation • Irrigation • Crop water Interception • Residue water Interception • Evapotranspiration = Soil evaporation + Transpiration + Residue evaporation • Soil evaporation • Transpiration • Residue evaporation• Infiltration• Soil water depletion
Potential and actual
Water entering soil - Evapotranspiration – Infiltration = Soil water depletion
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Crop growth in CropSyst
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Crop Development• Crop development is the progression of a crop
through phenological stages.• The proper simulation of crop development
(phenological stages) is crucial – as it determines the length of time when the crop
interacts with the environment– as it allows matching specific physiological conditions
of a crop to specific environmental conditions.• Crop development is governed by growing degree days
(GDDs)
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GDDs
GDDs
Vernalization
Photoperiod
Water stress
Temperature
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Key phenological stages in CropSystGDDs (°C days) from seeding to• Emergence • maximum rooting depth• Peak LAI (end of vegetative growth)• begin Flowering• begin Grain filling• Maturity
Also expressed in GDDs:• Leave duration
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Crop-growth – governing equations
[kg m-2 day-1]BRad = biomass production
(radiation-dependent)Tlim = temperature-
dependent limiting factor*
RUE = radiation use efficiency [kg MJ-1]
PAR = photosynthetic active radiation [MJ m-2 day-1]
k = radiation extinction coefficient [-]
LAI = leaf area index [m2 m-2]
)e1(PARRUETB LAIklimRad
´--´´´=
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6LAI [m2 m-2]
Ads
orbe
d ra
diat
ion
[frac
tion]
k = 0.5k = 0.6k = 0.7k = 0.8k = 0.9k = 1
1- e(-k*LAI)
Eq. 1
* in view of optimum mean daily temperature for growth
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Crop-growth – governing equations (cont.)
BPT = biomass production (transpiration dependent)BTR = aboveground biomass transpiration coefficient [kg m-2 kPa
m-1], often simply called Transpiration Use EfficiencyTact = actual transpiration [m d-1]VPD = vapor pressure deficit [kPa] Assumptions/Preconditions• Maintenance and growth respiration losses are
accounted for in the experimental determination of BTR
• The difference between leaf and atmospheric vapor density can be approximated by the atmospheric deficit expressed as the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD).
VPDTBTRB act
PT´
= Eq. 2
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Transpiration dependent growth• CropSyst versions later than 4.12 offer
three different modes for calculating BPT:1. classical Tanner-Sinclair model
• BTR is a constant, eq. 2 valid2. FAO AquaCrop water
productivity• BTR is a constant; VPD is not considered; equation 2 not used; unit of water productivity is g biomass/kg water)
3. Transpiration use efficiency curve
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Crop growth
• (optimal) crop growth is governed by the most limiting condition, either– radiation (eq. 1) or– transpiration (eq. 2).
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Water limited growth, how?
• via reducing transpiration…
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Crop water uptake, WU (= Tact) n
WU = Σ WUl [mm d-1]l=1
WUl = K · Cl/1.5 · (ψsl - ψl)
leaf water potential
soil water potential
number of seconds per day = 86400
root conductance of soil layer l
soil layer
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A range of other "water" factors• Act. to pot. transpiration ratio that limits leaf area growth• Act. to pot. transpiration ratio that limits root growth• Maximum daily water uptake• ET crop coefficient at full canopy• Leaf water potential at the onset of stomatal closure• Wilting leaf water potential• Leaf duration sensitivity to water stress• Phenological sensitivity to water stress• Initial leaf area index• fraction of max. LAI at physiological maturity
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Stress indexesStress index is determined as one minus the ratio of actual to
overall potential biomass growth for each day of the growing season.
Potential growth is defined as the growth calculated from potential transpiration (Trpot) substituted for Tract.
Actual biomass growth is obtained after growth limitations have been applied.
This overall stress index is partitioned into light, temperature, water, and nitrogen stress indices. These quantities are used as indicators of the plant response to environmental conditions. All these indices range from 0 to 1, where 0 is no stress and 1 is maximum stress.
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Climate change impact assessment using CropSyst
(by example of wheat growing in Central Asia)
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Objectives1. Model calibration and evaluation for wheat grown under
currently prevailing climatic conditions in selected agro-eco-zones of the study region
a. Crop model selection b. Site selection (by AEZ), and data collection (surveys)c. Crop model calibration
2. Definition of business-as-usual management3. Generation of daily time-step weather data (historic and
future)4. Modeling the impact of climate change on crop
productivity utilizing developed climate change scenarios
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Potential biophysical impact of climate change on crop production in Central Asia
1. Increasing temperature– warmer winter and early spring (winter crops)
better early crop growth, less damage by frost– hotter late-spring, hotter summer
crop heat stress (lower grain production)– shorter cropping cycle
lower biomass production2. Changes in precipitation (amount and intensity)3. Increasing CO2
– “carbon fertilization effect” moderate increase in crop growth• Interactions of 1. – 3.
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Model selection criteria• Capacity to handle the impact of climate change on crop growth:
– CO2 response– temperature response (cold & hot)– water stress (rainfall variability)
• Capacity for reasonable prediction of– impact of shallow groundwater (GW-module; upward movement of
water in the soil)– salinity response (saline soils)– evapotranspiration in arid environments– response to soil conservation measures (zero-tillage, surface residue
retention)
• Availability of further, useful modeling tools, such as– automatic irrigation
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CO2 fertilization effect in CropSyst • increase in radiation use efficiency (ε) by a G-ratio factor• decrease in canopy conductance, increase of WUE
Tubiello et al., 200037
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Generation of weather data• Historic: data bases of national met-services, ICARDA and
www• Future: using greenhouse gas emission scenarios of IPCC, 2007
– A2: pessimistic; assumes a continuous population growth, increasing divergence between regions, less transfer of technological innovations
– A1b: neither optimistic nor pessimistic; assumes population stabilization, continued globalized world, balance between fossil-intensive and non-fossil energy sources
• Future periods:– immediate future: 2011-2040– mid-term future: 2041-2070– long-term future: 2071-2100
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Increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration as predicted by SRES A1B and A2 (redrawn from IPCC, 2000)
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Climate change – CO2 concentrations
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No Name Country Year Resolution (degrees)
01 BCCR-BCM2.0 Norway 2005 2.8 x 2.8
02 CSIRO-MK3.0 Australia 2001 1.9 x 1.9
04 MIROC3.2 Japan 2004 2.8 x 2.8
08 CGCM3.1(T63) Canada 2005 2.8 x 2.8
09 CNRM-CM3 France 2005 2.8 x 2.8
10 ECHAM5/MPI-OM Germany 2003 1.9 x 1.9
12 GFDL-CM2.0 USA 2005 2 x 2.5
Projections of climate change• Underlying data base: seven IPCC GCMs
average deviation (delta) from historic climate (temperature and precipitation) of the seven models
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Business-as-usual (BAU)
• Definition of agronomic management scenarios based on the usual farmer’s practice
Model simulations should reflect reality
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From socio-economists team:1. Fertilizer type2. Fertilizer amount3. Week of planting4. First week of irrigation5. Last week of irrigation6. Number of irrigation events7. Week of harvest
National recommendations:+1. Dates of fertilizer
application2. Dates of irrigation3. Irrigation rates
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Business-as-usual (BAU)Information about BAU:
BAU Planting date Fertilizer application
Irrigation
optimal Depending on location
highest recommendedaverage average/median average
sub-optimal lowest water stressed
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ClimGen modified version of WGEN developed by Gaylon S. Campbell, Washington State University
Available at:http://www.bsyse.wsu.edu/CS_Suite/ClimGen/index.html
LARS-WG stochastic weather generatorDeveloped by M. Semenov(Rothamsted Research of BBSRC)
Available at:http://www.rothamsted.bbsrc.ac.uk/mas-models/larswg.php
Weather generators
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Crop:• Crop
physiology
• Crop phenology
Management:• Planting
date• Irrigation,
fertilization• Tillage
Soil:• Soil physical
properties• Nmin and SOM• Soil salinity• Groundwater
Historic daily meteorological data: precipitation, solar radiation, Tmax, Tmin, RHmax, RHmin, wind speed
CropSyst Simulations
Current conditions
Scenario outputs
Weather generator
Location
GCM - СС
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
Scenario 2
Scenario 1
Regional down-scaling
Generated daily
meteodata
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Climate change simulations
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Climate change crop model simulation results – major governing factors
• higher temperatures:→ faster growth, shorter growing season
less time for biomass accumulation→ higher evaporative demand
increase in crop water requirements→ “warmer” (less cold) winters and springs
less frost damage, faster early growth in spring→ hotter late spring and summer
increased risk of sterility of flowers • higher precipitation:
→ more water for the crop→ increased risk of nitrate leaching
• higher concentration of CO2:→ carbon fertilization effect
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Country Site name AEZTajikistan Faizabad 1032
Shahristan 532Khorasan 510Bakht 510Spitamen 510
Kyrgyzstan Uchkhoz 510Zhany pakhta 510Daniyar 510KyrNIIZ 510
Country Site name AEZKazakhstan Shieli 310
Vozdvizhenka 521Petropavlovsk 821Kostanay 521
Uzbekistan Khorezm 310Syrdarya 510Kushmanata 510Kuva 310Akkavak (2 experiments) 510
Selected sites
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47
Climate change projections for the selected sites
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CC simulation results: Grain yield
48
0
2
4
6
H I M L I M L H I M L I M L H I M L I M L
A1b A2 A1b A2 A1b A2
Suboptimal Mgmt. Average Mgmt. Optimal Mgmt.
Yiel
d (M
g/ha
)
LSD (0.42 Mg/ha)
* ***
Akkavak – Mars, (UZ, irrigated)
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210
220
230
240
H I M L I M L
A1b A2
Days
from
em
erge
nce
till m
atur
ity
Avg. ( ±SD)
Min
Max
Example: Kushmanata (UZ)
Days from emergence until maturity
49
-10 days -12 days
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(Minimum) temperatures during vegetative growth
50
Immediate future
Mid-term future
Long-term future
Avg. + 0.8 + 1.7 + 2.9Range 0.6-1.0 1.4-2.4 2.2-4.1
Change in average temperature across all sites and scenarios
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Maximum temperatures during flowering
51
20
25
30
35
40
I M L I M L
Hist. A1b A2
T (°
C)
Astana
50-year Max.
95%-Perc.
Avg. (±SD)
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Irrigation water requirements
• Overall: no noteworthy change• Some sites: reduction in irrigation water requirement 52
0
50
100
150
200
250
H I M L
Irrig
ation
(mm
)
Shieli
0
100
200
300
400
H I M L
Irrig
ation
(mm
)
Kuva
Subopt. Mgmt. A1b
Subopt. Mgmt. A2
Avg. Mgmt. A1b
Avg. Mgmt. A2
Optimal Mgmt. A1b
Optimal Mgmt. A2
0
100
200
300
400
H I M L
Irrig
ation
(mm
)
Kuva
Subopt. Mgmt. A1b
Subopt. Mgmt. A2
Avg. Mgmt. A1b
Avg. Mgmt. A2
Optimal Mgmt. A1b
Optimal Mgmt. A2
0
100
200
300
400
H I M L
Irrig
ation
(mm
)Kuva
Subopt. Mgmt. A1b
Subopt. Mgmt. A2
Avg. Mgmt. A1b
Avg. Mgmt. A2
Optimal Mgmt. A1b
Optimal Mgmt. A2
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Grain yield vs. actual transpiration, all Uzbek sites
Transpiration Use efficiency increased from 18.3 kg/ha/mm under historic (CO2) conditions to 25.8 kg/ha/mm in the long-term future
Water use efficiency
53
0
2.5
5
7.5
10
0 100 200 300 400 500Yi
eld
(Mg/
ha)
Actual transpiration (mm)
Long-termMid-termImmediateHistoric
Slope (kg/ha/mm):25.822.520.318.3
y = 18.3x – 405.6R² = 0.758
0
2.5
5
7.5
10
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Yiel
d (M
g/ha
)
Actual transpiration (mm)
Historic
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5412th CGIAR Steering Committee Meeting for Central Asia and the Caucasus, September 12-14, 2009, Tbilisi, Georgia
Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!