modeling the effects of sea-level rise on groundwater levels … · 2016. 6. 21. · short title;...
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Short title; Author(s), Date
Modeling the Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Groundwater Levels with Implications for
Road Infrastructure in Coastal New Hampshire
Jayne F. Knott, Jo Sias Daniel, Ph.D., Jennifer M.
Jacobs, Ph.D., and Paul Kirshen, Ph.D.
UNH Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering
“Better Safe Than Sorry” – Workshop June 21, 2016
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Climate Change in the Northeast Temperature
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Source: 2014 National Climate Assessment
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Climate Change in the Northeast Precipitation
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Source: 2014 National Climate Assessment
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Climate Change in the Northeast Sea-Level Rise
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Source: 2012 National Climate Assessment
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Climate Change in the Northeast Sea-Level Rise
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Coastal NH – Winter storm 2/8/2016
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The useful life of the pavement structure decreases with an increase in the percent of time
the structure is saturated.
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Source: Cedergren, 1988
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High moisture content weakens the unbound layers beneath the hot mix asphalt
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What does sea level have to do with groundwater?
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Source: U.S. Geological Survey
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Project Objectives
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1. Create a NH Seacoast Transportation Climate Working
Group
2. Determine the effects sea-level rise on coastal
groundwater levels
3. Identify roads that may be vulnerable to damage from
rising groundwater
4. Conduct pavement performance evaluations
5. Demonstrate the value of adaptation through case
study
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Methods
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• Identify areas where the groundwater is less than 10-feet
deep using current and historical groundwater observations
• Update the USGS groundwater flow model of the Seacoast
Region of NH (Mack, 2009) using MODFLOW-2005
• Simulate various sea-level rise scenarios to identify areas
where groundwater is predicted to rise
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Depth to GW from observations (1960-2015)
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GW table is greater than or equal to 15-ft. below the ground surface.
Observation wells
GW table is very close to the ground surface
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Depth to groundwater near the I-95/Rte. 16 Interchange in Portsmouth, NH
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Depth to groundwater near Route 101 in
Hampton– Evacuation Rte. From Hampton Beach
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Route 101 Route 101
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Groundwater Model
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• Calculates the groundwater flow equation for many small
areas, or cells, within the model domain
• Hydraulic properties of surficial and bedrock geology
• Groundwater recharge
• Streamflow
• Public and private water withdrawals and returns
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Model grid is 535 rows and 350 columns, each grid cell is 200’ x 200’
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Sea-level rise scenarios
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Time Period 2050 2100
Intermediate low 0.6 ft. 1.6 ft.
Intermediate high 1.3 ft. 3.9 ft.
Highest 2.0 ft. 6.6 ft.
From: National Climate Assessment (Parris et al., 2012) using
MSL as a reference
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Surface water inundation with 6.6 feet of SLR
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Groundwater rise with 6.6 feet of SLR
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Observed depth to gw and simulated depth to gw with 6.6 feet of sea-level rise
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Transect of the off-ramp from I-95 through the Portsmouth Circle
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Sections of roads where the groundwater table is already shallow are the most vulnerable
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What factors make coastal road infrastructure vulnerable to changes in climate?
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Proximity to the ocean
Locations where groundwater is near the
ground surface and where groundwater is
projected to rise
Inadequate stream crossings now or in the
future
Subgrade soil types that weaken with
increasing moisture content
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Will drinking water supplies be harmed by saltwater intrusion?
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Area where GW is predicted to rise the most with SLR
Areas potentially at risk from saltwater intrusion with SLR
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Rise in GW with 6.6 feet of SLR
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Why doesn’t the GW rise as much here?
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Increase in GW level is reduced in the proximity of streams, but. . .
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• Streamflow will
increase.
• The freshwater/salt
water interface
may move further
inland.
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Where might rising groundwater come in contact with contaminated soils?
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Conclusions
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Groundwater modeling is an effective tool for investigating
hydrologic changes resulting from climate change.
Rising groundwater and changing flow patterns will have
important consequences for the structural integrity of
infrastructure, water supply and water quality, stream base flow,
and the health of natural ecosystems.
Adaptation strategies must consider potential damage from rising
groundwater in addition to surface water impacts.
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What actions can communities take . . .
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Formally consider groundwater predictions when:
designing or repairing road infrastructure,
establishing criteria for the cleanup of contaminated sites
permitting onsite septic systems, and
designing sea walls or other protective structures to mitigate
damage from sea-level rise
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What actions can communities take . . .
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Identify drinking water supply wells that may be at risk from saltwater
intrusion and plan for alternative sources, if necessary
Identify the critical infrastructure in your community where rising
groundwater may cause problems
Protect existing wetlands and adjacent areas to allow for wetland
expansion
Collaborate with research institutions, community planning organizations,
government, and private partners to plan for the future
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Acknowledgements
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• NH Sea Grant is funding this project
• UNH – ICNet, UCIRC, the Asphalt Research Group, the
Climate Change and Infrastructure Research Group
• NH Seacoast Transportation Climate Working Group (NHS
TCWG)
• NH Coastal Adaptation Workgroup (NH CAW)
• NH Department of Transportation (NHDOT)
• NH Department of Environmental Services (NHDES)
• Thomas Mack and Dave Bjerklie of USGS
• Gregory Barker, NH Geological Survey
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Thank you Questions?
Contact: Jayne F. Knott
University of New Hampshire [email protected]
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