modeling the ebola outbreak in west africa january 6th 2015 update
TRANSCRIPT
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Modeling the Ebola Outbreak in West Africa, 2014
January 6th Update
Bryan Lewis PhD, MPH ([email protected]) presen2ng on behalf of the Ebola Response Team of
Network Dynamics and Simula2on Science Lab from the Virginia Bioinforma2cs Ins2tute at Virginia Tech
Technical Report #15-‐001
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
NDSSL Ebola Response Team Staff: Abhijin Adiga, Kathy Alexander, Chris Barre., Richard Beckman, Keith Bisset, Jiangzhuo Chen, Youngyoun Chungbaek, Stephen Eubank, Sandeep Gupta, Maleq Khan, Chris Kuhlman, Eric Lofgren, Bryan Lewis, Achla Marathe, Madhav Marathe, Henning Mortveit, Eric Nordberg, Paula Stretz, Samarth Swarup, Meredith Wilson,Mandy Wilson, and Dawen Xie, with support from Ginger Stewart, Maureen Lawrence-‐Kuether, Kayla Tyler, Kathy Laskowski, Bill Marmagas Students: S.M. Arifuzzaman, Aditya Agashe, Vivek Akupatni, Caitlin Rivers, Pyrros Telionis, Jessie Gunter, Elisabeth Musser, James Schli., Youssef Jemia, Margaret Carolan, Bryan Kaperick, Warner Rose, Kara Harrison
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DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Currently Used Data (as of Dec 22nd, 2014)
● Data from WHO, MoH Liberia, and MoH Sierra Leone, available at h.ps://github.com/cmrivers/ebola
● MoH and WHO have reasonable agreement ● Sierra Leone case counts censored up
to 4/30/14. ● Time series was filled in with missing
dates, and case counts were interpolated.
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Cases Deaths Guinea 2,730 1,739 Liberia 8,115 3,423 Sierra Leone 9,633 2,827 Total 20,478 7,989
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Liberia Forecast
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11/24 to
11/30
12/1 to
12/8
12/9 to
12/16
12/15 to
12/21
12/22 to
12/28
12/29 to
1/04
1/05 to
1/11
1/12 to
1/18
1/19-‐1/25
1/26-‐2/01
Reported 246 362 99 35 101
Newer model 303 285 270 255 240 226 214 201 190 180
Reproduc2ve Number Community 0.23 Hospital 0.3 Funeral 0.2 Overall 0.8
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Liberia long term forecasts
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Date Weekly forecast
12/08 270
12/15 255
12/22 240
12/29 227
1/05 213
1/12 202
1/19 190
1/26 179
2/2 169
2/9 160
2/16 150
2/23 142
3/02 134
3/09 126
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Liberia-‐ Prevalence
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Date People in H + I
12/08 652
12/15 616
12/22 580
12/29 548
1/05 517
1/12 488
1/19 460
1/26 434
2/2 410
2/9 386
2/16 365
2/23 344
3/02 325
3/09 306
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Sierra Leone Forecast
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35% of cases are hospitalized
ReproducRve Number Community 0.8 Hospital 0.3 Funeral 0.1 Overall 1.1
11/24 to
11/30
12/1 to
12/8
12/9 to
12/16
12/15 to
12/21
12/22 to
12/28
12/29 to
1/04
1/05 to
1/11
1/12 to
1/18
1/19-‐1/25
1/26-‐2/01
Reported 641 598 702 531 651 467
Newer model 612 635 660 686 713 740 769 799 830 862
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
SL longer term forecast
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Sierra Leone – Newer Model fit – Weekly Incidence Date Weekly forecast
12/08 660
12/15 686
12/22 713
12/29 740
1/05 769
1/12 799
1/19 830
1/26 862
2/2 895
2/9 929
2/16 965
2/23 1002
3/02 1040
3/09 1080
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Sierra Leone -‐ Prevalence
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Date People in H + I
12/08 898
12/15 932
12/22 968
12/29 1006
1/05 1045
1/12 1085
1/19 1128
1/26 1171
2/2 1216
2/9 1263
2/16 1319
2/23 1370
3/02 1423
3/09 1477
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Guinea Forecasts
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40% of cases are hospitalized
ReproducRve Number Community 0.7 Hospital 0.1 Funeral 0.1 Overall 0.9
11/24 to
11/30
12/1 to
12/8
12/9 to
12/16
12/15 to
12/21
12/22 to
12/28
12/29 to
1/04
1/05 to
1/11
1/12 to
1/18
1/19-‐1/25
1/26-‐2/01
Reported 129 44 127 132 166 106
Newer model 89 85 81 78 75 72 68 66 60 58
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Guinea – longer term forecast
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Date Weekly forecast
12/08 81
12/15 78
12/22 75
12/29 72
1/05 69
1/12 66
1/19 63
1/26 60
2/2 58
2/9 55
2/16 53
2/23 51
3/02 48
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Guinea Prevalence
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Date People in H+I
12/08 98
12/15 94
12/22 90
12/29 86
1/05 82
1/12 79
1/19 76
1/26 72
2/2 69
2/9 66
2/16 64
2/23 61
3/02 58
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Agent-‐based model progress
• Sierra Leone calibra2on – Behavioral Shil of 17% in Mid-‐Oct – Debugging of HPC environment – 2nd round of calibra2on is be.er, s2ll not sa2sfied
• Fundamental science of calibra2on – Methods for iden2fying epidemic instances being developed
– Extensions to simula2on engine to generate an “enriched” set of instances underway
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DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
App Development • EpiViewer enhancements – Added more filters – Improving visualiza2on before broader release
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