modeling risk on planted forests in south africa · 2018-01-11 · risk modeling • climate change...
TRANSCRIPT
© ICFR 2014
Modeling risk on planted forests in South Africa
Ilaria Germishuizen
Institute for Commercial Forestry Research (ICFR) Pietermaritzburg (South Africa)
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Monitoring and Assessment of Drylands: Forests, Rangelands, Trees, and Agrosilvopastoral Systems. FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy, 19-21 January 2015
© ICFR 2015
Background: Forestry in South Africa • Static land base of 1 300 000 ha (1% of the country).
• Plantations of exotic tree species (Genera: Pinus, 52%; Eucalyptus, 40%; Acacia, 7%; Other, 1%).
• Single species – even age units/compartments.
• Short rotation (pulp: 6 – 14 years; sawtimber: 25 – 30 years).
Summer rainfall region
Winter rainfall region All year rain
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Monitoring and Assessment of Drylands: Forests, Rangelands, Trees, and Agrosilvopastoral Systems. FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy, 19-21 January 2015
© ICFR 2015
Research focus Risk modeling • Climate change - Shifts in optimal forestry areas - Drought risk - Fire risk - Frost risk - Site x genotype matching breeding strategy - Adapting silvicultural practices to reduce risk and enhance productivity • Pests and pathogens - Bioclimatic risk models - Sensitivity studies
} New and existing P&D
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Monitoring and Assessment of Drylands: Forests, Rangelands, Trees, and Agrosilvopastoral Systems. FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy, 19-21 January 2015
© ICFR 2015
Model Name Institution Country Mk3.5, 2001 Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) Australia
GFDL-CM2.0, 2005 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Unites States GFDL-CM2.1, 2005 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Unites States
MIROC 3.2, 2004 Centre for Climate System Research (CCSR), University of Tokyo Japan
ECHAM 5, MPI-OM, 2005 Marx Plank Institute for Meteorology Germany UKMO-HadGEM1, 2004 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office United Kingdom
• Six Global Circulation Models (GCM) • Regionally downscaled • SRES: A2 • Monthly precipitation, tmax, tmin from 1960 to 2100
Main trends for Southern Africa: • MAT increases up to twice global rate • MAP: Some areas becoming dryer, other wetter. Erratic rainfall patterns. • Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events (drought, extreme temperatures, extreme rainfall events)
Climate change
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Monitoring and Assessment of Drylands: Forests, Rangelands, Trees, and Agrosilvopastoral Systems. FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy, 19-21 January 2015
© ICFR 2015
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Monitoring and Assessment of Drylands: Forests, Rangelands, Trees, and Agrosilvopastoral Systems. FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy, 19-21 January 2015
© ICFR 2015
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Monitoring and Assessment of Drylands: Forests, Rangelands, Trees, and Agrosilvopastoral Systems. FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy, 19-21 January 2015
© ICFR 2015
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Monitoring and Assessment of Drylands: Forests, Rangelands, Trees, and Agrosilvopastoral Systems. FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy, 19-21 January 2015
© ICFR 2015
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Monitoring and Assessment of Drylands: Forests, Rangelands, Trees, and Agrosilvopastoral Systems. FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy, 19-21 January 2015
© ICFR 2015
Remote sensing for monitoring Aridity Index:
MODIS 16 Data (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, NASA) Modis data used to develop an Aridity Index based on Tsakiris & Vangelis (2005):
a = 1 Rainfall (P) = Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) a = 0 Drought
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Long Term
Zululand - CoastalAridity Index
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
• Aridity Index • Stand growth (Diameter at Breast Height (DBH)
increase)
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Monitoring and Assessment of Drylands: Forests, Rangelands, Trees, and Agrosilvopastoral Systems. FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy, 19-21 January 2015
© ICFR 2015
1,300 000
Monitoring and Assessment of Drylands: Forests, Rangelands, Trees, and Agrosilvopastoral Systems. FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy, 19-21 January 2015
Current dominant species in SA plantation forestry
Pinus patula Pinus elliottii Pinus taeda
Eucalyptus grandis Eucalyptus nitens Eucalyptus smithii Eucalyptus grandis x Eucalyptus urophylla
Acacia mearnsii
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Monitoring and Assessment of Drylands: Forests, Rangelands, Trees, and Agrosilvopastoral Systems. FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy, 19-21 January 2015
© ICFR 2015
Monitoring and Assessment of Drylands: Forests, Rangelands, Trees, and Agrosilvopastoral Systems. FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy, 19-21 January 2015
Pests and pathogens
Case study: Leptocybe invasa (Eucalyptus gall wasp)
A major and growing threat to the forestry sector in South Africa
Linked to climate change } • Strongly climate driven •Susceptibility increased by physiological stress
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Monitoring and Assessment of Drylands: Forests, Rangelands, Trees, and Agrosilvopastoral Systems. FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy, 19-21 January 2015
© ICFR 2015
• Climate change models indicate that South Africa is shifting towards drier
conditions
• Indigenous vegetation most affected: forest and grassland biomes
• Plantation forestry heavily affected
Loss in biodiversity, species
Sustainability at risk
Thank you