modeling puget sound circulation mitsuhiro kawase school of oceanography prism retreat, 2002
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Modeling Puget Sound Circulation
Mitsuhiro KawaseSchool of Oceanography
PRISM Retreat, 2002
National Ocean Partnership Program
A Partnership for Modeling the Marine Environment of Puget Sound, WashingtonONR Award N000140210503
Mitsuhiro Kawase, Allan Devol, Miles Logsdon and Mark Warner, School of Oceanography
William Winn, College of EducationUniversity of Washington, Seattle, WA
FY 02 Funding: $390,924
Objectives:
• Develop, maintain and operate a system of simulation models of Puget Sound’s circulation and ecosystem, a data management system for oceanographic data and model results, and an effective delivery interface for the model results and observational data for research, education and policy formulation.
• Develop fundamental understanding of the Sound’s working, and address questions raised by the regional community concerning management of the Sound and its resources.
Partners:
• Department of Natural Resources, King County, Washington (R. Shuman, B. Nairn)
• Department of Ecology, State of Washington (J. Newton)
• Puget Sound Naval Shipyard (S. Swanson, R. Johnston)
• Ocean Inquiry Project (F. Stahr, C. Sarason)
Puget Sound Circulation Model
• Support from National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP), FY 2002 - 2008
• In collaboration with King County DNR• Based on Princeton Ocean Model (POM)
code• 360x540m resolution,14 vertical levels• Predicted variables: Velocity,
temperature, salinity, turbulent kinetic energy, turbulent master length
Model domain and bathymetry
Puget Sound Circulation Model (Cont’d)
• Hindcasting Year 2000 (with Bruce Nairn, KC-DNR):– Accurate time-average exchange circulation in the Main
Basin– Accurate time-average recirculation around Vashon Island
(northward current 30cm/s in Colvos Passage)– Excessive transport into the deep Whidbey Basin (~20%) -
dynamics of the Skagit Delta, Deception Pass transport?
Puget Sound Circulation ModelTasks FY 2002
• Complete coupling with the MM5 weather prediction model
• Routine hindcasting of Puget Sound circulation• Dynamics of Carr Inlet• Generate Lagrangian trajectories for study of
planktonic genetic diversity (diatoms, geoducks)
Variability at Seasonal/Interannual Time Scales
• Historical data analysis• Simple model of Puget Sound circulation for
quantitative sensitivity study
Schematic of exchange circulation in a fjord (cross-section)
Tidal Mixing
Entrance Sill
Main BasinMarine influence(Salty, Dense)
Sharp Pycnocline
River Input(Fresh, Light)
Outflow
Inflow/Reflux
Terrestrial Influence = River Runoff•Maximum in Winter/Spring
Marine Influence = Coastal Upwelling•Maximum in Spring/Summer
T/S Seasonal Cycle in Puget Sound Main Basin (1992)
T-S Variation 1992
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
29.4 29.6 29.8 30 30.2 30.4 30.6 30.8 31
Salinity (PSU)
Potential Temperature (degrees C) Februar
March
April
February 93
December
October/November
September
August
July
June 15
June 2
May
σ = 22.0 σ=22.5 σ=23.0
σ=23.5 σ=24.0
“Light Phase”
“Dense Phase”
A Box Model of Puget Sound Circulation
Amanda Babson, M.S. Thesis
• Twelve boxes to represent Puget Sound (six regions, upper and lower layer)
• Predicts salinity in each box, advective fluxes between boxes and mixing between upper and lower boxes
• Forced by river discharge and external salinity in deep Admiralty Inlet
• Conservation of mass and salt, simple parameterization of momentum and vorticity balance, and stratification-dependent vertical mixing
Salinity in a Box Model of Puget Sound Circulation (Babson, 2002)
Seasonal Transport in the Box Model (positive = out)
J F M A M J J A S O N D
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
x 109
Volume Transport (m
3/day)
GhasGhadGchsGchdGmasGmadGnmsGnmdGwasGwadGpsGpdGd
Outflow at Surface
Inflow at Depth
Jan Apr Jul OctVol
um
e T
rans
port
(x1
09 cu
bic
met
ers
per
day)
0
1
-1
Potential Temperature 1999
June
December
Admiralty Inlet Sills
SJDF Dalco Passage
Main Basin
Black line: Last contiguous density surface across Admiralty Inlet
10
12
8
10
12
8
Salinity Anomaly, Puget Sound Main Basin at 100m
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
J-51
J-52
J-53
J-54
J-55
J-56
J-57
J-58
J-59
J-60
J-61
J-62
J-63
J-64
J-65
J-66
J-67
J-68
J-69
J-70
J-71
J-72
J-73
J-74
J-75
J-76
J-77
J-78
Date
Salinity Anomaly (permil)
Point No Point 100m Point Jefferson 100m Possession Point 100m
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
Salinity Anomaly (6 month averages)
Skagit River Discharge (6 month averages) R=0.6 (36% of variance)
Salinity and Potential Density in Central Puget Sound, 1990 - 1998(Blue: 100m Red: 200m)
28.5
29
29.5
30
30.5
31
Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00
Date
Salinity (PSU)
22
22.5
23
23.5
24
Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00
Date
Potential density (sigma theta)
1997: Year of no density intrusion
Salinity 1992-1999 in the Box Model
pre pre 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 post post24
26
28
30
32
Main Basin
Salinity (PSU)
surface datadeep data
model
pre pre 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 post post
20
25
30
Whidbey Basin
Salinity (PSU)
Note different scale
pre pre 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 post post24
26
28
30
32
N. Hood Canal
Salinity (PSU)
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
J-51
J-52
J-53
J-54
J-55
J-56
J-57
J-58
J-59
J-60
J-61
J-62
J-63
J-64
J-65
J-66
J-67
J-68
J-69
J-70
J-71
J-72
J-73
J-74
J-75
J-76
J-77
J-78
Date
Temperature Anomaly (C)
Point No Point 100m Point Jefferson 100m Possession Sound 100m
Temperature Anomaly, Puget Sound Main Basin at 100m
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Jan-51 Jan-52 Jan-53 Jan-54 Jan-55 Jan-56 Jan-57 Jan-58 Jan-59 Jan-60 Jan-61 Jan-62
Date
Temperature Anomaly (C)
Point No Point 100m Point Jefferson 100m Possession Sound 100m
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Jan-51
Jan-52
Jan-53
Jan-54
Jan-55
Jan-56
Jan-57
Jan-58
Jan-59
Jan-60
Jan-61
Jan-62
Date
Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index
R=0.57 (33% of variance)