modeling physical environmental impacts on survival: the shiraz model
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Modeling physical environmental impacts on survival: the SHIRAZ model . Ecosystem based management FISH 507. SHIRAZ publications. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Modeling physical environmental impacts on
survival:the SHIRAZ model
Ecosystem based managementFISH 507
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SHIRAZ publicationsScheuerell, M. D., Hilborn, R., Ruckelshaus, M. H., Bartz, K. K., Lagueux, K. M., Haas, A. D., and Rawson, K. 2006. The Shiraz model: a tool for incorporating anthropogenic effects and fish-habitat relationships in conservation planning. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 63: 1596-1607.
Battin, J., Wiley, M. W., Ruckelshaus, M. H., Palmer, R. N., Korb, E., Bartz, K. K., and Imaki, H. 2007. Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 104: 6720-6725.
Honea, J. M., Jorgensen, J. C., McClure, M. M., Cooney, T. D., Engie, K., Holzer, D., and Hilborn, R. 2009. Evaluating habitat effects on population status: influence of habitat restoration on spring-run Chinook salmon. Freshwater Biology. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2427.2009.02208.x.
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Motivation for habitat modelling
• One element of fisheries management is habitat protection and restoration
• In Pacific Northwest hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent on these items
• How do we evalute the priority or cost benefit ratio of the different kinds of activities
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Fish live life one day at a time
• The probability of survival depends upon feeding, and surviving
• The key factors are protection from predators, availability of food, influence of competitors, the right habitat and physical conditions
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It is convenient to break the life history into stages
Numberstage+1= Numberstage * survivalstage
Survival depends on food, competitors, predators, and habitat
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Moussalli generalization 1986
• Assume a Beverton-Holt form for each life history stage
• p is productivity• c is capacity• Habitat, competitors,
food, predators affect the productivity and capacity
stage
stage
stage
stagestage
cN
p
NN
11
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Over a series of life history stages
ns
s s
s
totaltotal
ns
ssn
cP
Pc
pP
1
1
The productivity and capacity over the entire life history are simple functions of the individual p’s and c’s at the stages
Note the capital P in denominator
The series of life history stages is a Beverton-Holt model
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For MSY
15.0 totaltotal
totalMSY P
PcS
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Life history and habitat
• The Moussalli form provides the basis for life history models SHIRAZ and EDT– Both of these are now used to evaluate
impacts of habitat change on Pacific salmon
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Basic concepts of SHIRAZ• Life history stages• Divide watersheds into segments• In each segment describe a range of habitat
characteristics• Functional relationships between habitat
characteristics and productivity and capacity at each stage
• Stocks, that have different life history stages, spring vs fall chinook, hatchery vs wild
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Hatcheryeffects
Habitateffects
Harvesteffects
Land useLandscape processes
Hydropowereffects
Life-cyclemodel
SHIRAZ
SHIRAZ Concept
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Habitat characteristics
• Square meters of spawning gravel• Area of pools and ponds for rearing• Percent fine sediments in spawning gravel• Maximum flow of stream during incubation• Maximum flow of stream during rearing• Minimum flow of stream …
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Functional relationships
• For each life history stage in each area there are two parameters, productivity and capacity
• Each of these is defined as a function of habitat characteristics
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Sharma coho carrying capacity
0
1200
2400
3600
4800
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Pool density (m2/km)
Smol
t den
sity
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Snoqualamie Snohomish River basin
SHIRAZ Model
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Major habitat changes
• Dyking and farming lower watershed – loss of rearing area
• Road construction and logging in upper watershed – Increased sediment in spawning areas– Increased flow variability
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Uses of SHIRAZ
• Evaluate rebuilding plans for Endangered Species Act mandates
• Evaluate impacts of alternative expected habitat changes
• Identify cost-effectiveness of alternative habitat improvements
• Evaluate impacts of hatcheries• Evaluate impacts of climate change
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HistoricalN = 40930
Current pathN = 6590
Test caseN = 18257
01 - 99100 - 499500 - 999=1000
Wild spawners
HistoricalN = 40930
Current pathN = 6590
Test caseN = 18257
01 - 99100 - 499500 - 999=1000
Wild spawners
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0
10
20
30
40
0 10 20 30 40 50
Spawners (1000s)
Rec
ruits
(100
0s)
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Impacts of climate changefrom Battin et al 2007
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Escapement goals
• There are generally three approaches to setting escapement goals– Historical averages– Spawner-recruit analysis– Habitat based assessments
• Mixing different types of data• Considering nutrient impacts
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Habitat based approaches
• Limiting factors evaluation– Spawning area (many species)– Lake rearing capacity (sockeye)– Freshwater rearing (coho)
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Essential fish habitat• Required to be protected under Magnusson
Stevens act• SHIRAZ provides a quantitative framework for
evaluating the importance of different habitat elements
• In a SHIRAZ model some habitat will be more limiting than others
• We can calculate the derivative of the population abundance with respect to each habitat
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Models of habitat impacts for marine fishes
• In general we don’t understand the relationship between ocean physical habitat and marine fish survival
• OR there is nothing we can do about it• As a result almost all marine fish
ecosystem models are trophic
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EBM exercises
• No spatial resolution• Only a single stock• No hatcheries
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Hatchery impacts
• Hatchery fish can potentially compete with wild salmon
• Hatchery fish may also effect wild fish through genetic impacts
• Hatchery fish may potentially supplement and help rebuild wild fish
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Impact of supplementationfrom Sharma Cooper and Hilborn
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Optimal harvesting if we know pre-spawning mortality and ocean
conditions
SurvivalOcean 1
1
) 1(
x
capacityspawners
typroductivi
spawnersreturn
mortalityspawningpre
escapementspawners
rateharvestreturnescapement
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The best escapement :giving up one fish in the catch produces one additional fish
in subsequent recruitment
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0 500 1000 1500
Spawners
Rec
ruits
Best Escapement
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What to do with 50% reduction in ocean survival or 50% prespawning
mortality
0
200
400
600
800
0 100 200 300 400 500
Escapement
Rec
ruits
poor ocean
.5 prespawn
normal
best esc