Modeling of economic dynamics

under stochastic noise:

Tatyana Ryazanova with

Jochen Jungeilges

Urbino, Italy

2014

Confidence domains in the analysis of

noise-induced transition for Goodwin model

Stochastic Goodwin model

Confidence ellipse for

equilibrium

01.0,07.0

,9.00.2,,2

Confidence band for

limit cycle

1.007.0,9.0

0.2,,2

Thank you for your attention!

We have demonstrated how the confidence domain

method is used to understand the qualitative changes in

stochastic dynamics and predict a critical value of the

noise intensity at which noise-induced transitions are

most likely to occur.

Conclusion