modeling cisco stress across midwest lakes to aid management of cold-water fish … ·...
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Modeling cisco stress across Midwest lakes to aid management of cold-water fish habitatMadeline Magee1, Jordan Read2, Andrew Rypel3,4, Peter McIntyre1
1UW-Madison Center for Limnology, 2USGS, 3WDNR, 4University of California – Davis
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0
5
0
2
3
DO(mg/L)
Temp(°C)
Dep
th(m
)
Oxythermal nicheOxythermal stress (OTS)30
20
10
0
10
5
0
0
6
12
180
6
12
18
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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P. Vecsei Tim Parks
FWS
John Lyons
Cisco!
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FisheryNative forage base
michigan.gov
commercialfishingmuseum.org
pashalake.com
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Timothy Parks, WDNR
Cisco in Wisconsin
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Dep
th(m
)
30
20
10
0
10
5
0
0
6
12
18
0
6
12
18
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Drivers of change
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Dep
th(m
)
0
6
12
18
0
6
12
18
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Warmer air temperatures result in less oxythermal habitat
Drivers of change
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Drivers of change – Increased air temperature
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Dep
th(m
)
0
6
12
18
0
6
12
18
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Eutrophication (P load) decreases habitat
Drivers of change
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Drivers of change – Eutrophication
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Modeling habitat across the landscape
How will future changes alter distribution?
Timothy Parks, WDNR
Cisco present (2020-2040)Cisco present (2080-2100)
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Modeling habitat across the landscape
How will future changes alter distribution?
Where can management options effectively offset changes?
Resilient
Extirpation
P reduction
Land cover
Engineered Solution
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Model Design Climate
Water LevelDOC
Phosphorus Loading
Land Cover
Groundwater
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Model Design
Variables
Surface Area 16
Depth 6
Latitude 1° bin (5)
Drainage type 2
DOC 3
Surface roughness(land cover)
5
Total P 5
72,000 simulation lakes per climate scenario
Hypothetical model lakesGeneral Lake Model (GLM)Aquatic EcoDynamics module (AED)
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Preliminary Results MIROC5 RCP 8.5
Contemporary Period Mid Century (2020-2040) Late Century (2080-2100)
30% no cisco 64% no cisco 88% no cisco
TDO3 < 17°C (good)
TDO3 > 17°C (bad)
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201014
16
18
20
22
24
26
Max
imum
TD
O3
( o
C)
slope = 0.92 o
C decade- 1
How does climate alter fish habitat?
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201014
16
18
20
22
24
26
Max
imum
TD
O3
(o
C)
slope = 0.62 o
C decade- 1
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5Magee et al, in prep
Available vertical habitat
Aug
Aug Sep
SepBad
Good
Fish Lake
Lake Mendota
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Modeling habitat across the landscape
How will future changes alter distribution?
Where can management options effectively offset changes?
Resilient
Extirpation
P reduction
Land cover
Engineered Solution
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phosphorus loading reductions
What is the best way to conserve fish habitat?
aeration
Munger et al. 2016
artificial destratification
Dep
th(m
)
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecD
epth
(m)
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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In small, isolated lakes P loading reductions DO NOT improve habitat
Magee et al, in prep
15 20 25 30
TDO3 (o
C)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Estim
ated
CD
F
1995-2014
A1B
A1B + 50% P reduction
A1B + destratification
What is the best way to conserve fish habitat?
15 20 25 30
TDO3 (o
C)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Estim
ated
CD
F
1976-2014
mid-century A1B
A1B + 50% P reduction
A1B + destratification
In large lakes artificial destratification DOES NOT improve fish habitat
Fish Lake
Lake Mendota
BadGood
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In Progress
Finish modeling of Wisconsin lakes
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In Progress
Finish modeling Wisconsin lakes
Characterize lake resilience
Depth
Latit
ude
Depth
P lo
ad
DO
C
Depth
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In Progress
Finish modeling Wisconsin lakes
Characterize lake resilience
Analyze cool-water fish species
Next Steps
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In Progress
Finish modeling Wisconsin lakes
Characterize lake resilience
Analyze cool-water fish species
Create online tool
Next Steps
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Questions?