modeling and scenarios for the industry sector · energy 5 industry sectors modeled in detail:...
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Modeling and Scenarios for the Industry Sector
Johannesburg, 30 March 2012
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Global industrial energy use
China, OECD North America and OECD Europe represent more than half of global energy use in industry.
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Global energy-related CO2 emissions in the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios
Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050.
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2007 2030 2050 2030 2050
Baseline BLUE Map
Gt
CO
2CCS
Nuclear
Renewables
Generation efficiency and fuel switching
End-use fuel switching
End-use fruel and electricity efficiency
Other
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Other transformation
Power generation
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
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Scenarios &
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement by sector
End-use sectors are responsible for more than half of the reductions to reach the BLUE Map scenario. Industry accounts for almost one quarter.
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt
CO
2
Other transformation 14%
Buildings 14%
Transport 23%
Industry 16%
Power sector 32%
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
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Scenarios &
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Direct energy and process CO2 emissions in industry by sector
Energy efficiency and CCS are the two most important abatement options in industry.
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Industrial CO2 emissions reductions in the BLUE scenario by sector
All sectors will need to significantly reduce emissions.
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
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to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
The Industry Model
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
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to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Characteristics of the Industry Model
Spreadsheet-based sector models
5 industry sectors modeled in detail: iron and steel, cement, chemicals and petrochemicals, pulp and paper and aluminum
Low- and high-demand variants for materials production
Time steps: ETP 2010: 2007, 2015, 2030, 2050
ETP 2012: 2009 to 2050, 5-years step
Regions/countries ETP 2010: 23 world regions/countries
ETP 2012: 36 world regions/countries
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ENERGY
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Modelling Framework
Per capita materials demand assumptions based on: GDP by regions Disposable income Short-term industry
capacity Current materials
consumption and production pattern
“saturation” rates Resources endowment
Production by process and input materials Distinction between
Baseline and BLUE scenario
Basic assumptions
and inputs
Technology
specification
Energy and
emission forecast
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ENERGY
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Material demand by region
Growth in industrial production will be strongest in India, other developing Asia and Africa and the Middle East.
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
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Scenarios &
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Technology Specification
Initial intensity specification by technology/process
Technology turn-over (accelerated in the BLUE scenario)
Intensity improvement through: New built (at BAT level
in the BLUE scenario) refurbishments and demolition
Penetration of new technologies
Fuel switching
Basic assumptions
and inputs
Technology
specification
Energy and
emission forecast
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Energy savings potential in the iron and steel sector in 2007, based on BATs
The potential exists to save approximately 130 Mtoe of energy, with country-specific savings potentials of 1.4 to 9.0 GJ/t of crude steel.
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Key Options
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ENERGY
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Modelling Framework
Energy consumption and associated CO2 emissions
Production from the first module
Technology specification and specific intensities from second module
Emission factors
Basic assumptions
and inputs
Technology
specification
Energy and
emission forecast
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ENERGY
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Direct emissions reduction by technology option for iron and steel
Energy efficiency, recycling and CCS are the main options for emissions reduction in the iron and steel sector.
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ENERGY
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Scenarios &
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© OECD/IEA - 2010
Main Conclusions for the Industry Sector
Energy efficiency has improved significantly in the last decade, but more is possible with wider use of best available technologies (BATs).
In the BLUE scenario, industry reduces its direct emissions in 2050 by 24% compared to 2007 levels. All countries and industries need to contribute.
New technologies such as CCS, smelting reduction, separation membranes and black liquor gasification will be needed to reduce direct emissions in industry.
CCS represents the most important new technology option for reducing direct emissions in industry, with the potential to save an estimated 1.7 to 2.5 Gt CO2 in 2050.
Urgent action is needed to develop and demonstrate CCS applications in industry.
Carbon pricing is important. In the short to medium term, international agreements covering specific energy-intensive sectors may be a practical first step.
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
Scenarios &
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to 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Thank You!
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