model portfolio updatecontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/idirect_model... · 2019-09-18 · ies –...

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Model Portfolio update

September 18, 2019

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September 18, 2019 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 2

Latest Model Portfolio

Large cap Mid cap

Source: ICICI Direct Research

*Diversified portfolio - Combination of Large Cap and Mid Cap portfolios in 70:30 ratio.

• Exclusion – Somany Ceramics, Arvind Fashions

• Inclusion – Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management, Mahanagar Gas

Name of the company Weightage(%)

Auto 4.0

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) 4.0

BFSI 39.0

HDFC Bank 10.0

Axis Bank 6.0

HDFC Limited 9.0

Bajaj Finance 6.0

State Bank of India 8.0

Capital Goods 6.0

Larsen & Toubro 6.0

Cement 4.0

UltraTech Cement 4.0

FMCG/Consumer 19.0

Dabur India 5.0

Marico 4.0

ITC 6.0

Nestle India 4.0

IT 12.0

Tata Consultancy Services 6.0

Tech Mahindra Limited 6.0

Metals 6.0

Hindustan Zinc 6.0

Oil and Gas 5.0

GAIL Ltd. 5.0

Pharma 5.0

Divis Laboratories 5.0

Total 100.0


Auto 6.0

Bharat Forge 6.0

BFSI 20.0

Bajaj Finserv 8.0

Indian Bank 6.0

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management 6.0

Capital Goods 12.0

AIA Engineering 6.0

Kalpataru Power transmission 6.0

Cement 6.0

Ramco Cement 6.0

Consumer 24.0

Kansai Nerolac 6.0

Pidilite Industries 6.0

Tata Chemicals 6.0

Bata India 6.0

IT 6.0

Firstsource Solutions 6.0

Logistics 6.0

Container Corporation of India 6.0

Pharma 8.0

Syngene International 8.0

Real Estate 6.0

Brigade Enterprises 6.0

Oil & Gas 6.0

Mahanagar Gas 6.0

Total 100.0

No changes in Large Cap portfolio

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Outperformance continues across all portfolios…

• We prefer companies with sound business fundamentals. This forms the core

theme of our portfolio. Our indicative large cap equity model portfolio has

continued to deliver an impressive total return (inclusive of dividends) of 139.6%

since its inception (June 21, 2011) vis-à-vis the index return of 105% during the

same period, an outperformance of ~35%. Our midcap portfolio has returned

1.6x return of the benchmark since inception. Total return of our indicative

midcap portfolio is 229.4% vs. benchmark return of 102.1%

• Our consistent outperformance is reflective of our stringent process of

identifying quality businesses with good franchisee offering superior risk-reward

opportunities. Some key performers of our portfolio are Bajaj Finance, HDFC

Bank and TCS while Natco Pharma and Bajaj Finserv have delivered good

returns in the midcap portfolio. Given the recent volatility, we continue to

advocate the SIP mode of investment as the preferred mode of deployment. We

highlight that the SIP return of our portfolio has consistently outperformed

indices. This affirms our belief in the staggered and systematic approach of

investment amid market volatility

• Sensex earnings (ex-financials) in Q1FY20 mirrored the muted demand

sentiment domestically with modest 6.1% YoY increase in topline and de-

growth of 10% at the PAT level. The bottomline de-growth was primarily driven

by raw material price increase (120 bps YoY) as well as negative operating

leverage in the form of increase in employee costs (33 bps YoY). EBITDA

margins in Q1FY20 were at 18.0%, down 140 bps YoY. The Q1FY20

performance was also marred by base effect with auto sector posting excellent

results in Q1FY19, which now posted sharp de-growth in volumes and earnings.

We believe such a trend of one-offs/base effect would be more prominent,

going forward, with focus now shifting towards individual companies

• Our large cap portfolio remains unchanged while we made fresh changes to our

midcap portfolio. On the midcap side, we introduce Reliance Nippon Life Asset

Management, which is the fifth largest mutual fund with total MF AUM of

| 202500 crore. In addition, the company has developed a strong distribution

network and possesses a high brand recognition in the asset management

space. The second addition is Mahanagar Gas, which is one of India’s largest

players in city gas distribution (CGD) business. The company is poised to

capture the benefits of the large and growing market amidst a low penetration.

Considering the near term challenges in the business profile, we remove Arvind

Fashions and Somany Ceramics

House view on Index

• We downward revise our forward earnings estimates to the tune of 12-13% and

expect Nifty earnings to stage a CAGR of 16.9% over FY19-21E. We value the

Nifty at 12,400 i.e. 18.5 x (1.1x PEG) on FY21E EPS of | 670/share. On the

sectoral front, earnings growth will primarily be led by the banking & NBFC

space (sectoral weight at 40%) with worst of the NPA cycle behind us. To put

things into perspective, our analysis suggest, on a YoY basis, gross NPA of the

system stands reduced to 10.8% of total advances (Q1FY20) vs. 11.6% in

Q1FY19 with absolute reduction in GNPA pegged at | 0.8 lakh crore

• We continue to maintain our high allocation towards the BFSI space with total

weightage of 39% in the large cap portfolio and 20% in the midcap portfolio.

Apart from this, we continue to remain positive on the consumption theme with

allocation of 19% and 24% in large cap and midcap portfolio, respectively

• Over the past year, commodity prices have witnessed volatility. Along with a

depreciating rupee, this may adversely impact margins of net importers. Thus,

our preference remains to identify domestic growth stories with durable

competitive advantages and considerable unutilised capacity available, thus

benefitting from higher operating leverage

• Timely resolution of key NPA accounts through swift insolvency proceedings is

likely to help alleviate the current pain in the banking sector. Despite key

challenges, we continue to remain positive on the BFSI sector with a high

allocation

455 490 560 670

8.6% 7.7%

14.3%

19.6%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

0

200

400

600

800

FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

(|)

Nifty EPS Growth (%)

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Performance so far* …


Portfolio performance since inception Portfolio performance since last update (March 2019)

• Our indicative large cap equity model portfolio has continued to deliver an

impressive total return (inclusive of dividends) of 139.6% since its inception

(June 21, 2011) vis-à-vis the index return of 105.0% during the same period,

an outperformance of ~35%

• Our midcap portfolio has returned 1.6x return of benchmark since inception.

Total returns of our indicative midcap portfolio are 229.4% vs. benchmark

return of 102.1%

• We continue to prefer companies with sound business fundamentals. This

forms the core theme of our portfolio

• Given the overall outperformance in both (large & midcap) portfolios, the

diversified portfolio (combination of 70/30 ratio) has outperformed its

benchmark indices by a wide margin, delivering 163.6% returns against

104.7% by the benchmark

• Since the last update (March 2019), our large cap portfolio has

outperformed the benchmark index performance of -5.8% compared to

large cap portfolio return of -4.8%. The performance of our large cap

portfolio was impacted by the underperformance of M&M, ITC and Gail

• The broader markets witnessed higher volatility over the past few months.

Despite that the performance of the midcap portfolio has outperformed

the benchmark. The portfolio performance was impacted by Somany

Ceramics and Arvind Fashions

139.6

229.4

163.6

105.0 102.1 104.7

0

100

200

300

Large Cap Midcap Diversified

%

Portfolio Benchmark

-4.8

-5.8

-5.0

-5.8

-12.2

-6.8

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Large cap Midcap Diversified

(%

)

Portfolio Benchmark

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Top movers so far…


Source: Thomson Reuters, ICICI Direct Research

Note – Returns shown here are on price basis only.


577

375

290

210 205

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Bajaj Finance HDFC Bank TCS HDFC Ltd Axis Bank

%

Gainers

(41)

(28) (27)(24) (23)

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Tata Steel

Ltd

Coal India Ltd Hindalco ONGC Aurobindo

Pharma

%

Losers

344

286 285

266

174

0

100

200

300

400

Natco

Pharma

Bajaj Finserv Kansai

Nerolac

Graphite

India

Star Ferro &

Cement

%

Gainers

(55)(51) (48)

(45)

(22)

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Arvind

Fashions

Simplex Infra Somany

Ceramics

Indian Bank Exide

Industries

%

Losers

577

375 344

286 290

0

80

160

240

320

400

480

560

640

Bajaj Finance

Ltd

HDFC Bank

Ltd

Natco Pharma

Ltd

Bajaj Finserv

Ltd

TCS

%

Gainers

(55)(51) (48)

(45)

(22)

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Arvind

Fashions

Simplex Infra Somany

Ceramics

Indian Bank Exide

Industries

%

Losers

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Performance* so far in SIP mode …


• Systematic investments at regular intervals in all our three portfolios have outperformed their respective benchmarks, acting as a perfect shield to the

volatility that the market encountered last year

• Assuming | 1,00,000 invested as SIP at the end of every month

• Start date of SIP is June 30, 2011

10

,00

0,0

00

10

,00

0,0

00

10

,00

0,0

00

14

,44

3,4

21

20

,94

5,7

74

15

,18

2,7

64

12

,95

6,9

40

12

,77

7,8

63

12

,05

2,2

84

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

Largecap Midcap Divesified

|

Investment Value of Investment in Portfol io Value if invested in Benchmark

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What’s in, what’s out?


What's in?

What's out?

Name Portfolio Weight

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Midcap 6%

Mahanagar Gas Midcap 6%

Name Portfolio Weight

Somany Ceramics Midcap 6%

Arvind Fashions Midcap 6%

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The story of the stocks…

Source: ICICI Direct Research, Thomson Reuters.

Mahanagar Gas (MAHGAS)

• Mahanagar Gas (MGL) is one of India’s largest players in the city gas distribution

(CGD) business. It is currently the sole authorised distributor of compressed

natural gas (CNG) and piped natural gas (PNG) in Mumbai, its adjoining areas

and Raigad district, Maharashtra. A strong gas pipeline will enable MGL to

capture the benefits of the large and growing market given the low penetration.

MGL plans to add ~40 CNG stations over the next one to one and a half years to

its existing network of 240 stations. We expect MGL to be able to maintain

average growth rate of 6-7% as witnessed over the last few years

• The CGD sector has benefited in a significant manner from the government’s

decision to prioritise the allocation of domestic natural gas for CNG and

domestic PNG customers. This has enabled MGL to access cheaper gas for CNG

and domestic business segments (~86% of total sales volume). Given the cost

economics of natural gas over other alternative fuels, volume growth of 7%

CAGR over FY19-21E should not be a concern

• MGL has strong pricing power in the CNG segment and will be able to pass on

higher costs to customers, if required. Also, the decline in LNG prices over the

last six months has improved the profitability in industrial/commercial PNG

segment as well. Hence, we expect MGL to report healthy gross margins of

~| 14/scm and EBITDA of | 9-9.5/scm for both FY20E and FY21E. With relatively

cheaper valuation compared to its peers and stable volume growth, we expect

MGL to be able to create value for shareholders

Key Financials FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Revenue (| crore) 2,452.9 3,056.8 3,390.4 3,561.0

EBITDA (| crore) 780.6 885.5 1,060.1 1,091.7

PAT (| crore) 477.9 546.5 654.4 669.3

EPS(|) 48.4 55.3 66.3 67.8

P/E (x) 17.3 15.1 12.6 12.3

P/Book (x) 3.9 3.4 2.9 2.6

RoCE (%) 31.9 31.5 32.4 28.9

RoE (%) 22.8 22.7 23.3 20.8

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management (RNAM)

• Reliance Nippon Asset Management (RNAM) was incorporated in 1995 as

Reliance Mutual Fund. Currently, it is the fifth largest asset management

company in India. As of June 2019, RNAM has a total AUM (including foreign

assets) of | 431000 crore, of which MF AUM is at | 202500 crore with ~8.3%

market share. RNAM is also the second largest ETF player with 19.3% market

share and an AUM of ~| 27000 crore

• RNAM despite being a non-bank promoted mutual fund has been able to

develop a strong distribution network with high brand recognition. The company

has a distribution network across 294 location with more than 74400 distributors

& 73 banks including foreign banks & 90 alternate distributors. RNAM is one of

the top players in B-15 & B-30 cities contributing ~28% & 20%, respectively, of

total AUM

• RNAM is the fifth largest mutual fund with total MF AUM of | 202500 crore,

growing at 17% CAGR in FY13-19. RNAM over the past few years has been

focusing on increasing granularity of AUM by rising retail proportion, thereby

reducing dependence on cyclical HNI & institutional flows. Accordingly, share of

retail has nearly tripled to 40% of AUM in FY19 from ~13% in FY14, compared

to industry average of ~26%

• RNAM is among the top five MF players and has one of the lowest profitability.

This is attributable to higher fixed cost i.e. admin & employee cost, which is at

74% of total cost in FY19. This provides scope for improving operating

efficiency, which could kick in with growth in AUM

| crore FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Asset under Management (MF) 146100 203600 226100 227800

Total Income 1,271 1,400 1,681 1,589

Total Expense 775 818 1,044 902

Net Profit 370 405 447 475

RoE (%) 25.6 21.9 19.1 18.8

P/E 37.5 34.3 31.0 29.2

P/B 9.6 7.5 5.9 5.5

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Large cap portfolio

Earlier Now


.


Auto 4.0


BFSI 39.0

HDFC Bank 10.0

Axis Bank 6.0

HDFC Limited 9.0

Bajaj Finance 6.0


Capital Goods 6.0

Larsen & Toubro 6.0

Cement 4.0


FMCG/Consumer 19.0

Dabur India 5.0

Marico 4.0

ITC 6.0

Nestle India 4.0

IT 12.0



Metals 6.0

Hindustan Zinc 6.0

Oil and Gas 5.0

GAIL Ltd. 5.0

Pharma 5.0


Total 100.0


Auto 4.0


BFSI 39.0

HDFC Bank 10.0

Axis Bank 6.0

HDFC Limited 9.0

Bajaj Finance 6.0


Capital Goods 6.0

Larsen & Toubro 6.0

Cement 4.0


FMCG/Consumer 19.0

Dabur India 5.0

Marico 4.0

ITC 6.0

Nestle India 4.0

IT 12.0



Metals 6.0

Hindustan Zinc 6.0

Oil and Gas 5.0

GAIL Ltd. 5.0

Pharma 5.0


Total 100.0

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Midcap portfolio

Earlier Now



Auto 6.0

Bharat Forge 6.0

BFSI 20.0

Bajaj Finserv 8.0

Indian Bank 6.0

Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management 6.0

Capital Goods 12.0

AIA Engineering 6.0


Cement 6.0

Ramco Cement 6.0

Consumer 24.0

Kansai Nerolac 6.0


Tata Chemicals 6.0

Bata India 6.0

IT 6.0


Logistics 6.0


Pharma 8.0


Real Estate 6.0


Oil & Gas 6.0

Mahanagar Gas 6.0

Total 100.0


Auto 6.0

Bharat Forge 6.0

BFSI 14.0

Bajaj Finserv 8.0

Indian Bank 6.0

Capital Goods 12.0

AIA Engineering 6.0


Cement 6.0

Ramco Cement 6.0

Consumer 24.0

Kansai Nerolac 6.0


Tata Chemicals 6.0

Bata India 6.0

IT 6.0


Logistics 6.0


Pharma 8.0


Real Estate 12.0


Somany Ceramics 6.0

Textile 6.0

Arvind Fashions 6.0

Total 100.0

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Diversified portfolio (1/2)

Earlier Now



Auto 4.6

Bharat Forge 1.8


BFSI 33.3

Axis Bank 4.2

Bajaj Finance 4.2

Bajaj Finserv 2.4

HDFC Bank 7.0

HDFC Limited 6.3

Indian Bank 1.8


Rel iance Nippon Li fe Asset Management 1.8

Power, Infrastructure & Cement 12.4

Larsen & Toubro 4.2

AIA Engineering 1.8


Ramco Cement 1.8


FMCG/Consumer 20.5

Bata India 1.8

Dabur India 3.5

ITC 4.2

Kansai Nerolac 1.8

Marico 2.8

Nestle India 2.8


Tata Chemicals 1.8


Auto 4.6

Bharat Forge 1.8


BFSI 31.5

Axis Bank 4.2

Bajaj Finance 4.2

Bajaj Finserv 2.4

HDFC Bank 7.0

HDFC Limited 6.3

Indian Bank 1.8


Power, Infrastructure & Cement 12.4

Larsen & Toubro 4.2

AIA Engineering 1.8


Ramco Cement 1.8


FMCG/Consumer 20.5

Bata India 1.8

Dabur India 3.5

ITC 4.2

Kansai Nerolac 1.8

Marico 2.8

Nestle India 2.8


Tata Chemicals 1.8

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Diversified portfolio (2/2)

Earlier Now



IT 10.2




Metals 4.2

Hindustan Zinc 4.2

Pharma 5.9



Oil and Gas 5.3

GAIL Ltd. 3.5

Mahanagar Gas 1.8

Logistics 1.8


Real Estate 1.8


Total 100.0


IT 10.2




Metals 4.2

Hindustan Zinc 4.2

Pharma 5.9



Oil and Gas 3.5

GAIL Ltd. 3.5

Logistics 1.8


Real Estate 3.6


Somany Ceramics 1.8

Textile 1.8

Arvind Fashion 1.8

Total 100.0

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Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

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1414

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Pankaj Pandey Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately

reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific

recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies

mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

A. Disclaimer in retail research report

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of

financial products. ICICI Securities Limited is a SEBI registered Research Analyst with SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration

is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in

businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which

are available on www.icicibank.com

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates

might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI

Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any

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Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as

opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to

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Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The

views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, target price of the Institutional Research.

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained

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1515

Disclaimer

The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own

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registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of

investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

model portfolio updatecontent.icicidirect.com/mailimages/idirect_model... · 2019-09-18 · ies –...

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