model inter-comparison to evaluate gaseous pollutants in east asia using an advanced modeling...
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Model Inter-comparison to Evaluate Gaseous Model Inter-comparison to Evaluate Gaseous Pollutants in East Asia Using an Advanced Pollutants in East Asia Using an Advanced Modeling System: Models-3/CMAQ SystemModeling System: Models-3/CMAQ System
2007 CMAS Conference2007 CMAS ConferenceChapel Hill, NCChapel Hill, NCOctober 3, 2007October 3, 2007
Joshua FuJoshua Fu11,, Carey Jang Carey Jang22, David Streets, David Streets33, Zuopan Li, Zuopan Li11, Roger Kwok, Roger Kwok44, ,
Rokjin ParkRokjin Park5,65,6, Zhiwei Han, Zhiwei Han77
11University of Tennessee, USA University of Tennessee, USA 22U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, USAU.S. Environmental Protection Agency, USA
33Argonne National Laboratory, USAArgonne National Laboratory, USA
44Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, HKHong Kong University of Science and Technology, HK55Soul Soul Seoul National University, KoreaSeoul National University, Korea
66Harvard Harvard University, ChinaUniversity, China77Chinese Academy of Sciences, ChinaChinese Academy of Sciences, China
OutlinesOutlines
MICS-Asia: In order to have a common understanding of model
performance and uncertainties in Asia Phase I (1998-2000): long-range transport and deposition
of sulfur Phase II (2003-2006): transport and deposition of sulfur,
nitrogen compounds, ozone and aerosols in East Asia.Eight models participated in the Phase-II study.
Our participation Phase II Study GEOS-Chem and CMAQ
Summary
Domain of MICS-Asia Phase II
Domain of MICS-Asia Phase II
G. Carmichael et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ
Overview of the Models in the MICS-II study
Grid number Grid size Met. fields Boundary data Chemical Mech. Dry dep. Wet dep.
M-1 145x195 45km MM5/NCEP MOZART-II CIT mechanism Wesely (1989) Seinfeld (1986)
M-2 143x133 40.5km MM5/ECMWF MOZART-II CB-IV Wesely (1989) RADM
M-3 110x60 0.5deg MM5/GANAL* MOZART-II Condensed CB-IV Wesely (1989) RADM
M-4 110x60 0.5deg MM5/NCEP MOZART-II Simplified CB-IV Wesely (1989) Henry’s Law
M-5 90x60 0.5deg RAMS/ECMF Original SAPRC 99 Wesely (1989) Fixed rate
M-6 166x134 0.5deg ECMWF MOZART-II Simpson Engardt (2000) Berge et al. (1993)
M-7 166x144 45km MM5/GANAL* MOZART-II CB-IV Wesely (1989) RADM
M-8 121x61 45km MM5/GANAL* MOZART-II RACM Wesely (1989) Sportisse and DuBoi (2002)
M-9 164x97 36km MM5/NCEP GEOS-Chem CB-IV Wesely (1989) RADM
* GANAL: Global objective ANALysis data developed by Japan Meteorological Agency
G. Carmichael et al. and Han et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ
Overview of the Models in the MICS-II study
MICS-Asia II
Periods
Four periods are selected as follows: Period 1: March 1 to 31 in 2001, Period 2: July 1 to 31 in 2001, Period 3: December 1 to 31 in 2001, Period 4: March 1 to 31 in 2002.
East Asia Modeling ConfigurationEast Asia Modeling Configuration Features : Models-3/CMAQ One-Atmosphere
(multi-pollutants) Modeling
July 2001 Asia CMAQ Domains
Model Setup : NASA’s TRACE-P converted to CB-IV emissions and
GEIA biogenic emission inventory Emissions Processing: Spatial allocation
(GIS/Gridding), Temporal, speciation needed for the M3/CMAQ simulations
36-km, 14 vertical layers Meteorology : MM5 V3.7 CMAQ V4.4 IC/BC: GEOS-Chem Photolysis:TOMS data
36-km36-km
12-km12-km
4-km4-km
Models-3/CMAQ Study Domains
Overview of Modeling Results in Asia
Comparison of model-derived and observed monthly mean concentrations of SO2, NO2 and O3 at EANET sites in July 2001 (green open circle denotes model results, grey bar means observations)
Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ
Overview of Modeling Results in Asia
Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ
Sapporo
Jul01
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Tateno
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Kago.
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Naha
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Observed and modeled O3 vertical profiles at 4 stations in Japan for July 2001. x-axis, O3 concentration (ppbv); y-axis,
altitude (km); black solid line denotes observation, from averaging over available profiles in July for each site, grey solid line means corresponding prediction. Left to right: Sapporo, Tetano, Kagoshima, Naha
Statistics is derived by comparing with O3 sounding data at 4 sites in Japan in July 2001. In total, 14 observed profiles at 06:00 UTC are used for comparison
Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ
.
Overview of Modeling Results in Asia
Model derived monthly mean ground-level O3 distribution (ppb) in July 2001 (The last small figure without ID number) Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ
Overview of Modeling Results in Asia
Time series of model-derived and observed O3 daily mean concentration at Sado site in July 2001 (Bright coarser green line; M-1: pink line; M-2: dark green line; M-3: blue line; M-4: light blue line; M-5: no data in July; M-6: brown line; M-7: orange line; M-8: red line) Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ
Overview of Modeling Results in Asia
Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ
comparison for daily means in July 2001 (unit: ppbv)
R MBE RMSE (pair of sample)
SO2 0.423 -0.149 5.069 263
NO2 0.024 -1.584 4.402 225
O3 0.717 5.794 13.341 153
Statistics regarding daily mean concentrations in July 2001 to EANET sites
Overview of Modeling Results in Asia
Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ
Statistics regarding monthly mean concentrations in July 2001 to EANET sites
comparison for monthly means in July 2001
(unit: ppbv)
R MBE RMSE
sites (pair of
sample)
SO2 0.726 -0.373 2.222 15
NO2 0.425 -1.004 2.994 13
O3 0.725 6.750 10.290 10
Statistics for comparison of O3 vertical profiles in terms
of different altitude regions (unit: ppbv)
Fu et al. (2007) Atmos. Environ
R 0.73 0.82 0.68 0.77 0.72
M9 MBE 2.54 -3.5 -19.8 -1.3 -7.1
RMSE 17.17 12.68 27.03 14.48 19.27
Han et al. (2007), AE
Beijing Map (on-going)
Pollutants transport Impacts in Beijing region
PM2.5
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Olympic Stadium Site
Olympic Stadium Site (without BeijingEmissions)
Ozone
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ppb)
Olympic Stadium Site
Olympic Stadium Site (without BeijingEmissions)
O3 PM2.5
Time series of modeled and observed daily mean O3 concentrations at Hong Kong
and Taiwan
Ozone Modeling Results in Hong Kong and Taiwan
RNAI/WNLI
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Model O3 ppb
SHLN/YGMG
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Summary The successful application using “One Atmosphere” CMAQ modeling system
with GEOS-Chem model for East Asia regional air quality modeling Emissions: Convert Trace-P Asian emissions to CB-IV emissions, especially
VOC emissions, e.g., ALD2, OLE, PAR.
The use of EANET monitoring data is to against CMAQ modeling results (O3,
NO2, SO2) in East Asia
Statistics of both monthly and daily means show that the model skill is very well in reproducing O3 and SO2 with small to moderate RMSE.
The model species capture the day-to-day and spatial variability of the observations.
Vertical O3 profiles at 4 ozonesonde sites are well predicted in July 2001 .
Our model is among the best of those MICS-II models within the 2-km surface layer.
Compared to SO2 and O3, the NO2 gas concentrations are simulated less well,
but the correlation coefficient is still significant.
Our spatial distributions of O3 shows a high concentration patch covering
Beijing, a moderate to high pattern across Korea and Japan Sea, and a low but extensive pattern enclosing southern China, Taiwan and East Sea.
Next Step
Investigate PM2.5 and acid deposition resulting from the same model runs
Use the recent version of Models-3/CMAQ Next MICS –2005 ? Scenarios depend on
observation data available.
AcknowledgmentAcknowledgment
USEPA ICAP and STAR funding supportUSEPA ICAP and STAR funding support University of Tennessee Office of University of Tennessee Office of
ResearchResearch Argonne National Laboratory/University Argonne National Laboratory/University
of Iowaof Iowa Hong Kong University of Science and Hong Kong University of Science and
TechnologyTechnology