Model-data Integration and Network Design for Biogeochemical Research (CDAS)

May 20 – 31, 2002

Hosted by NCAR & Colorado State University

Overriding Themes in Carbon Cycle Research

• Motivations for constraints on regional (~1000 km) scales are many and growing

• Challenges to determining regional CO2 fluxes involve both data and modeling

• Integrated approach needed to move forward - data assimilation, network design

Regional scale is critical for linking to underlying processes

(NRCS/USDA, 1997)

(NRCS/USDA, 1997) (SeaWIFS, 2002)

CHLOROPHYLL

TEMPERATURE (C)

(IPCC, 2001)

Relevant U.S. Planning Documents(Current U.S. carbon cycle expenditures $40-50M/yr)

CCSP, 1999:

+$135-300M 2000-2005

$200-250M/yr 2005-

NACP, 2002:

+$40-70M/yr 2002-2005

+$50-100M/yr 2005-

LSCOP, 2002:

$250M 2002-2006

$150M 2007-2011

(from The Emerging International Greenhouse Gas Market, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2002)

At $2 per ton CO2e: 0.1 GtC (~1/10 of current uncertainty on U.S. uptake and ~1/4 of current U.S. emissions above Kyoto obligation) would trade at approximately. . .

$700,000,000.00

Continental Signal Versus Noise Using Current Inverse Methodologies (TransCom, 2002)

Unresolved variance presently contains most of the information on continental-scale fluxes

(LSCOP, 2002)

Many network design studies1 have been conducted, with similar results:

• Need more data

- continental, (South America, Africa, Siberia)

- Southern Ocean

- airborne

1e.g. Rayner et al., 1996; Gloor et al., 1999; LSCOP, 2002; Patra, subm. 2001; Suntharalingam, subm. 2002

CDAS Approach

• Bring together observationalists and modelers to form an integrated approach to improving our understanding of the global carbon cycle.

• Initial effort: Network design exercises based on a selected assimilation modeling strategy.

• Ongoing: Further development of the assimilation tool and support for testing and planning/educational use by the community.

Technical Team

• Roger Dargaville (CGD)• David Baker (ASP)• Steve Aulenbach (CGD)• Jennifer Oxelson (ESIG/ATD)• Kathy Fisher (CGD)• Dave Brown (SCD)• Mark Moore (SGD)