model couplings to include - river water temperature ... · zhaoqin li, luis morales, prabin...
TRANSCRIPT
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Model couplings to include - river water temperature, - overland and instream water-quality and - river ice processes in the MESH modelling system
Karl-Erich LindenschmidtSujata Budhathoki, Apurba Das, Hinata Kadowaki, Zhaoqin Li, Luis Morales, Prabin Rokaya
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MESH-RBM: In-stream water temperature model
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RBM model source
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A grid-based semi-Lagrangian water temperature model for MESH: Structure
Water temperature model RBM
Boundary and initial conditions: Theadw = f(Tair)
Hydraulic characteristicsStream depth (H) a width (W): H, W = f(Adrainage), V = Q/(H*W)
Hydrological model MESH
Connectivity of
river network
Cell channel
flow
Met. forcing data for each cell:- Precipitation- Min and max air temperature- Wind speed- Down. short- and long-wave rad.- Vapor pressure
Cell channel water temp.RBM output
RBM input from MESH
RBM input
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Hinton:RMSE = 1.78 °CPBIAS = 5.20%NSE = 0.82
Athabasca:RMSE = 2.25 °C PBIAS = 2.20%NSE = 0.87
Fort McMurray:RMSE = 2.37 °C PBIAS = -1.80%NSE = 0.89
Water temperatures at three different stations
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Maps of multi-annual averages of simulated water temperature
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Landsat heat map
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MESH-SED: Sediment & nutrient transport
modelling
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SHESED model source
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MESH-SED conceptualization and software flow diagram
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Requires seasonally varying vegetation cover to refine simulations
Preliminary results:observed vs. simulated sediment
loads at Fort McMurray
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MESH-RIVICE: Ice-jam flood modelling
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MESH
Streamflow
RIVICE
Water level profiles
Model parameters
Incoming ice volume
Downstream Water Level
Location of toe of the ice jam R
IVIC
E bo
unda
ry
cond
ition
s
Hydrological Processes
River ice Processes
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River ice processes
incoming ice blocks
heat transfer
frazil ice formation
in transit
deposition erosion
juxta-position retraction
slush pan formation
lead
ing
edge
downstream water level from under-ice rating curve:W = f(Q_MESH)
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(1) Remote sensing:provides info on- ice types- ice thicknesses- upstream ice extent
(2) Stochastic, real-time, river ice flood modelling:
(3) Dynamic flood hazard assessment & mapping:
(4) Flood advisories & warnings:provides info for- decision support- preparedness measures- disaster management
flow
ice volume
jam
toe
→lo
catio
n
flood water level
free
ze-u
p w
ater
leve
l
RIFHA – Real near-time flood hazard assessmentFunding and Radarsat-2 data from CSA’s EOADP
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Flow forecasts from MESHMESH inputs from theCanadian Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS)
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10-day forecasted meteorological data
MESH simulation resulting in min/max flows of 10-dayforecasted flows
Water level elevation at gauge
corresponding water level elevation at downstream boundary
water level profile
ensemble
thalweg
conf
luen
ce
Monte-Carlo simulations
f
Q
f
Vice
f
W
↔range
min max min range
Ice-jam flood forecasting operational framework
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18Lindenschmidt, K.-E. et al. (in prep.) A novel stochastic modelling approach to operationally forecast ice-jam flooding.
Flood hazard maps for Forecasts 4 to 6
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Thank you