mobility world business council for sustainable development geneva, september 2007 doing business...
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Mobility
World Business Council for
Sustainable DevelopmentGeneva, September 2007
Doing Business with the World - The new role of corporate leadership in global development
2
Overview
The global view: Mobilizing a growing
population
Tomorrow’s market: projected transport
demand growth by mode
Projection of number of motorized vehicles
ICT around the world
3
Transport has been critical to unlocking
resources and promoting economic
development
Basic premise: Passenger transport demand is determined by population and income1
Data source for pie charts: UN 2001. United Nations. World Urbanization Prospects: The 1999 Revision. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2001.
World population 1950-2030 (billions of people)
1950Total Pop. 2.52
2030Total Pop. 8.112000
Total Pop. 6.061975Total Pop. 4.07
Source: UN (2001)
The global view: Mobilizing a growing population
Lack of access to transportation, goods and
information are both symptoms of poverty and key
factors in keeping families, communities and nations poor
4
Personal transport
Tomorrow’s market: projected transport demand growth by mode
OECD Countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Trilli
ons
of p
asse
nger
-kilo
met
ers Air Transport
Passenger rail
Bus & minibus
2&3-wheeler
LDV
Average Annual Growth Rate: 2000-2050 (%)OECD non-OECD
LDV 0.54% 3.86%2&3-wheeler 0.34% 2.09%Bus & minibus 0.00% -0.02%Pass Rail 1.21% 2.55%Air Transport 2.53% 4.53%Total 0.92% 2.36%
Source: IEA/SMP spreadsheet model calculationsGraphs generated by George Eads from Worldwide Demand for Mobility and Petroleum presentation
Average Annual Growth Rate: 2000-2050 (%)OECD non-OECD
Trucks 1.69% 3.47%Rail 1.46% 2.57%Total 1.61% 3.00%
OECD Countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Trilli
ons
of to
nne-
kilo
met
ers
Rail
Trucks
Goods transportComparison between OECD and non-OECD countries
non-OECD Countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Trilli
ons
of p
asse
nger
-kilo
met
ers Air Transport
Pass Rail
Bus & minibus
2&3-wheeler
LDV
non-OECD Countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Trilli
ons
of to
nne-
kilo
met
ers
Rail
Trucks
5
Projection of number of motorized vehicles
Source: WBCSD 2004, IEA/SMP transport model
Total Stock of Motorized Vehicles (millions)
Today there are an estimated one billion vehicles worldwide
6
ICT around the world
Digital technologies create gains from transactional efficiency, improved manufacturing controls, and energy efficiency in processes.
"Rural people have systematically less access to ICT than their urban counterpart."
-UNESCO. 2004. "Transforming the Digital Divide into
Digital Opportunities for Rural Populations"
Penetration rates (%) for internet and telecommunications
7
Needs & Challenges
Societal needs
What are the challenges?
8
Societal needs
Percentage of people within 30 minutes walk of an all weather road
Road related deaths, 2000
Traffic fatalities in low and middle-
income countries are expected to increase by 80% between 2000
and 2020.1
In rural areas the World Bank estimates that about 900
million inhabitants lack access to reliable transport.2
9
7.48.8
10.9
13.2 13.6
4.74.2
0
4
8
12
16
WesternEurope
Industrialcountries
LatinAmerica
Asia Transitioncountries
Africa Sub-SaharanAfrica
(%)
Africa is impacted by high handling times and charges at the ports, poor road and rail networks, higher operating cost of vehicles, unnecessary road blocks,
various taxes & transit charges
Source: United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. Economic Report on Africa 2004, ECA, from official sources. Available at http://www.uneca.org/ERA2004/
Freight cost as a percentage of total import value
What are the challenges?
Poor regulatory frameworks and
burdensome bureaucracy
hinder improved mobility in many
developing nations
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Opportunities
How can business contribute?
What is the market size?
Key messages
WBCSD Resources
11
By adopting the goals outlined in the WBCSD Mobility 2030 report
Developing new renewable energy solutions to power the mobility sector
Assisting with more effective urban planning and infrastructure development
Developing virtual mobility solutions
Tomorrow’s market
How can business contribute?
“If emissions from cars are to be cut, engines will have to become dramatically more efficient, or there will have to be a
technological breakthrough to replace petrol with a clean fuel.”
–The Economist The drive for low emissions (31 May 2007)
Corn ethanol?
Cellulosic
ethanol?
Biobutanol?
Hybrid?
Hydrogen
fuel cells?
Nano-
technology?
Bus rapid
transit?
Transportatio
n demand
managem
ent?
Public-private partnerships are increasingly being used to solve mobility
problems
12Source: WRI and IFC. The Next 4 Billion. 2007.
There is a significantly large market that is yet to
be connected
What is the market size?
BOP spending on transportation$179.3 billion
BOP spending on ICT$51.4 billion
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Key messages
For governments, an effective policy framework for sustainable mobility can:
Improve levels of economic development and social progress
Create improved and more interconnected transportation infrastructure
Improve urban planning and the long term sustainability of mobility solutions in cities
Improve the environmental and social performance of the mobility sector through mitigation of negative environmental and social impacts
For business, investing in sustainable mobility can:
Create competitive advantage by developing new and affordable technologies Create new markets for transport solutions and ICT
Reduce transportation costs and improve the efficiency of supply chain sourcing and product distribution to markets
Reduce the lost time and security issues affecting the workforce from transport-related problems
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WBCSD Resources
Mobility 2030: Meeting the challenges to sustainabilityMobility 2030 is the final report of the WBCSD's Sustainable Mobility project. This publication identifies seven sustainable mobility goals and establishes a set of indicators to help measure the effectiveness of the various options.
Mobility as a Driver for Economic Development: Tanzania Case Study The Mobility for Development workstream builds on the Sustainable Mobility project. The four case studies that form a key part of this work programme include Tanzania, India, China and Brazil. The Tanzania case study is the first of four assessments of mobility challenges and opportunities. The final “Mobility for Development” report will be published in the second half of 2008.
www.wbcsd.org/web/development.htm
Photo credits Flickr