Mobilität der Zukunft-Schlüsselfaktoren und Chancen

Future Mobility-Keyfactors and Chances

e-mobil BW Technologietag2. Oktober 2013, Stuttgart

Dr. Ulrich EichhornGeschäftsführer - Managing Director

Why Mobility?

• Mobility is a basic requirement and basic right ofhumans

• Mobility is clearly and strongly correlated to wealth andeconomic performance

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

GD

P [B

€]

s [Bkm]

GDP Germany 1970-2010

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Mobility as a System

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MobilityMobilityInputs• Energy • Area• Resources• ….

Effects• Economic• Social• Personal • …..

Side-Effects• Emissions• Accidents• …..

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Passenger and Goods Traffic in Germany

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0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2025

[B. P

km]

Luftverkehr

Eisenbahn

ÖffentlicherStraßenpersonenverkehrPkw-Verkehr

Air traffic

Railroad

Public transport

Passenger car

Traffic in Germany until 2025

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(Source: DiW, BMVBS, BVU/DLR/ISL)

169%

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0100200300400500600700800900

1000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2025

[B. t

km] Binnenschiff

Bahnen

Lkw

Goods traffic in Germany until 2025

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(Source: DiW, BMVBS, BVU/DLR/ISL)

227% Barge

Trains

Commercial vehicle

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The story so far

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Particulate matter: old and newer passenger vehicle

Then … … Now

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"Smog"- Catastrophe in London 1952

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Nelson-column in London 1952 Nelson-column in London 2012

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"Smog" in Los Angeles 1956

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Los Angeles Skyline 2009Smog in Los Angeles 1956

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"Smog" in Peking 2005

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Beijing

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Achievments over the years

2012

Basis0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Seite 11Dr.-Ing. Ulrich Eichhorn, VDA

Challenges & Chances

Mobility

Energy

Efficiency

Petrol/Diesel

CNG

Electricity

Safety

„Vision Zero“

Emissions

PM & NO2

CO2

NetworkingPartnersPartners

Car2XCar2Car

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Which is the right way?

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The fan-strategy of theGerman automotive industry

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Source: VDA24.09.2013 VDA PowerPoint Seite 14

Potentials for CO2-Savings:

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Electric Mobility – What is that?

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Battery EV / BEV

Range Extender / REEV

Plug-in Hybrid / PHEV

Full Hybrid /HEV

Mild Hybrid / HEV

Start/Stop

Scope of Electric Mobility according to NPEi.e. re-chargeablefrom grid

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Future Drive Trains

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Tailored solutions on the market:

Hybridisation

Long distance Interurban City

Fuel Cell

Battery electric

Internal Combustion Engine

Plug-in/ range Extender

Quelle: Daimler AG

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Die Anfänge …..

Seite 18Dr.-Ing. Ulrich Eichhorn, VDA Total Cost of Ownership –Risiko oder Chance für die Elektromobilität?

Elektromobilität heute -Zwischenbilanz auf dem Weg zur

Marktdurchdringung

Seite 19Dr.-Ing. Ulrich Eichhorn, VDA

VW e-Golf

Porsche Panamera Sport Tourismo

Opel Ampera

Audi A3 e-tron

Ford C-MAX

BMWi3

Smart fortwoelectric drive

VW e-Up

Networking & Communication

Smartphone on Wheels?

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Car2X-Communication

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Danger Warning Message warn all vehiclesfor upcoming obstacles on the road

Source: simTD

Car2X- Communication between trafficlights, Roadside-Units and vehicles

Source: Vogel Business Media

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simTD – Sichere Intelligente Mobilität Testfeld Deutschland

Obstacle Warning

Traffic Light Circuit

Car-to-Car-Communication

Road WeatherWarning

Traffic Light Phase Assistant

Building Lot Informationen

Traffic Sign Assistant

Location basedServices

Emergency VehicleWarning Electronic Brake lights

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Mobility Concepts: Car-Sharing & Intermodality

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Chances & Remaining Challenges

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MobilityInputs• Energy:

„Fuels“ & Drive for theFuture

Value• Mobility Concepts• Networking

Side-Effects• Particulates & NO2

• Accidents• Remaining Accidents• CO2• Congestion

VDA PowerPoint

Mobility as a System: Goal-Scenario

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MobilityMobilityInputs• Energy

• Area• Resources• ….

Nutzen Economic Social Personal …..

Side-Effects

Summary

• Many former problems are solved withthe latest generations of cars

• Areas for further progress are• Last remaining pollutants• CO2-Reduction• Sustainable Energy-Sources for Transport• Networking and Car2X Communication• Mobility Concepts

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Visions!

… and my own!

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Not a Conflict!

… and my own!