mobile: the market, the web and windows phone’s future
DESCRIPTION
Presentation at Portland Area .NET Users GroupTRANSCRIPT
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/dnorman/3732851541/
Mobile: The Market, The Web and Windows Phone’s Future | Jason Grigsby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gnt/3850445756/
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Twitter:@grigs Tonight:@grigs_talks Slides:bit.ly/grigs_padnug2011
Email: [email protected] Web: http://cloudfour.com/blog
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Get a lot of email from this guy...http://www.flickr.com/photos/corbett3000/2327165138/in/set-72157604094629546/
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Mobile is Disruptive Technology
http://www.flickr.com/photos/talkephotography/4523849236/ Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0
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Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
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http://www.opera.com/smw/
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5.2BillionMobile phone for nearly everyoneon the planet.
Flickr photo by Pingnews: http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/370061022/
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2007 SMS Revenue: 100 billion
•Box Office•DVD Sales & Rentals•Music Industry•Video Games
CombinedFlickr photo by Vlastula: http://www.flickr.com/photos/vlastula/450642954/
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16
Source: http://www.morganstanley.com/institutional/techresearch/mobile_internet_report122009.html
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/76074333@N00/317952268/ | http://futuristmovie.com Creative Commons BY-NC-SA 2.0
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ME NEED IPHONE APP.http://www.flickr.com/photos/corbett3000/2327165138/in/set-72157604094629546/
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/mmcnier/4711157110/
You know the story. You’ve heard it before.
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We’ve been here before...
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and it wasn’t pretty.
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/earlysound/2710970750/ Creative Commons
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iPhone Only Part of World Wide Market
3%4%
13%
17%
27%
36%
Android Symbian iPhone RIM WindowsOther
Android 36%, iPhone 17% in Q2 2011http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1689814
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U.S. Smartphone Subscribers Feb 2011
http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2011/7/comScore_Reports_May_2011_U.S._Mobile_Subscriber_Market_Share
2%2.4%5.8%
24.7%
26.6%
38.1%
Android iPhone RIM Windows Palm Others
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Know Your Demographics
Blackberry has
40%global enterprisemobile market.
Emerging markets
80%of worldwideMMS traffic.
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Source: http://bit.ly/dlpGt8
Know Your Geography
Blackberry has
37%Latin America
smartphone market.
Sharp sells
80%of its phones in
Japan, leads market.
Most popular phone for youth in Brazil is Blackberry.Blackberry Messenger is Addictive. Network Effects.
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Why compare mobile to the PC market?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mesq/413104380/sizes/o/
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Windows 8 will boost WP7
Help familiarize and validate the Metro UI
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Ask Them
Use Mobile Analytics
What are your customers using?
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Mobile’s Eight Unique Abilities
http://bit.ly/b3oUtH | http://bit.ly/92TYAR
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/fchouse/2829381653/
PERSONAL
63% do not share phone
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PERMANENTLY CARRIED
~50% of US admit to sleeping with phone
http://www.flickr.com/photos/kk/3615287378/
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ALWAYS ON http://www.flickr.com/photos/gilderic/3517477267/
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BUILT-IN PAYMENT CHANNEL
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CREATIVE IMPULSE
http://www.flickr.com/photos/d_a_v_i_d_m_/246298437/
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/memotions/259656126/
ACCURATE MEASUREMENT
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/mythoto/1234638761/SOCIAL CONTEXT
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AUGMENTED REALITY
http://issuu.com/mkparsley/docs/ikea
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Question Group Think
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/fxp/2374147405/sizes/l/
Do Apps Create Platform Lock-in?
If you've bought $200 worth of applications for your smartphone, you're much less likely to switch to a different model in the future.
In short, high spending on smartphone apps ensures long-term platform loyalty.
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App Cost
Twitter for iPhone Free
Reeder $2.99
Instapaper $4.99
Facebook Free
1Password $9.99
Total $17.97
Do Apps REALLY Create Platform Lock-in?
Switching Costs are Lower
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Are App Stores Essential to a Platform’s Success?
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1. Android Has Horrible App Store2. Needs to improve App Store to Compete
3. Oh Wait... Nevermind
http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2011/1/comScore_Reports_November_2010_U.S._Mobile_Subscriber_Market_Share
2%2.8%7.7%
25.2%
28.9%
33.0%
Android RIM iPhone Windows Palm Others
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http://www.millennialmedia.com/wp-content/images/mobilemix/MM-MobileMix-Dec2010.pdf
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Unlimited Voice, Text and Web for $40/mo.
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http://blog.comscore.com/2011/01/verizon_iphone_mobile_market.html
81% of iPhone owners have household incomes greater than the U.S. median household income
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The analyst says Cook “appeared to reaffirm the notion that Apple is likely to develop lower priced offerings” to expand the market for the iPhone. Cook said the company is planning “clever things” to address the prepaid market, and that Apple did not want its products to be “just for the rich,” and that the company is “not ceding any market.”
Cheaper iPhone Will Be a Big Deal(I think. Remember I don’t know either!)
http://blogs.forbes.com/ericsavitz/2011/02/28/apple-plots-move-to-expand-iphones-market-share/
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/hi-phi/54828371
Native vs Web
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Why are we fighting?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jeff-bauche/2230236391/sizes/o/
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/acaben/541334636/
“We have been trying to come up with a solution to let developers write applications, yet keep the iPhone secure and safe. We’ve come up with a sweet solution.”
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Web Developers
Mac Developers
Web Developers
Mac DevelopersWeb Developers
Mac Developers
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Web Developers
Mac Developers
“That is a bold idea. Very forward
thinking... This is the coming out
party for web apps. We are very
excited about this. These are
exciting times.”
— Jason Fried, 37signals
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Web Developers
Mac Developers
“Perhaps it’s playing well in the
mainstream press, but here at WWDC,
Apple’s “you can write great apps for the
iPhone: they’re called ‘web sites’” —
message went over like a lead balloon.
If all you have to offer is a shit sandwich,
just say it. Don’t tell us how lucky we are
and that it’s going to taste delicious.”
— Jon Gruber, Daring Fireball
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Web 2.0Web-based Apps
Services & MashupsSoftware as ServiceCloud Computing
iPhone App StoreNative Apps
Few APIs between appsNo Recurring Revenue
Local Storage
Flickr photo by Civisi: http://www.flickr.com/photos/civisi/2611679744/
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Surprise Story of 2008
Flickr photo by Drift Words: http://www.flickr.com/photos/44124413076@N01/11846265/
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Find a single report that doesn’t showexponential growth for mobile web.
CHALLENGE:
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/digobaptista/3270435022/
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Native Mobile Apps
vs.
Mobile Web Apps
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Mobile is Bigger than Just Apps
Native Mobile Apps
vs.
Mobile Web Apps
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A mobile
website
for every
iPhone
app.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fotoosvanrobin/4932854288/sizes/l/
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/pricklebush/224674200/
Let me share our secret for selling mobile web.
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Email Gallery Free Email Templates Email Marketing Companies Submit
Advertise Here Advertise Here
Column Type of Email Type of Business Color POPULARITY RESET
Hyundai USA Newsletter 3 Alertful Newsletter 2 Divine Chocolate Newsletter 2
Does your company send email to customers?
http://www.email-gallery.com
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Does your company participate in social media?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/intersectionconsulting/5177773774/
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Links don’t open apps
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mattimattila/4001221570/
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/silipo/378476114/
21%of Google’s largest advertisers
have mobile web sites.
Only
Why?
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/nickwheeleroz/2391631937/in/photostream/
BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR MOBILE WEB:Many Sites are Chaos Behind the Scenes
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/ionan/103646126/
Multiple Systems Taped Together
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Our existing systems are anchors holding us back.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/caffeinehit/186362735/
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Native Developers Start from a Clean Slate
http://www.flickr.com/photos/salendron/5569020488/
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Content& Services
Car sketch: http://www.flickr.com/photos/cloppy/5081768461/
HTML
HTML
HTML
HTML HTML
HTML
HTMLHTML
NATIVE
NATIVE
NATIVE
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Features of New Platforms
Integrated image resizing
Video conversion and resizing
Separation of content from markup so content can be used in native apps
Prioritization of content based on context
Full-featured APIs
Synchronization
New Ways to Enable Content Editors
http://www.flickr.com/photos/expressmonorail/3046970004/sizes/l/
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What does WYSIWYG mean to multiple devices?
WYSIWTF
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ndm007/171398958/
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http://blog.programmableweb.com/2009/10/13/cope-create-once-publish-everywhere/
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http://blog.programmableweb.com/2009/11/11/content-portability-building-an-api-is-not-enough/
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/andresthor/3963368371/
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Desktop Web Server
Internet
example.com/products/[productID]
Desktop or Mobile
Desktop Web Page
Desktop
Redirect
Mobile
m.example.com/products/[productID]
Cloud Four Mobile Web
Server
Device Class Template A
Device Class Template B
Device Class Template C
Device Class Template D
Internet
Web Services APIs
One Possible Bridging Solution
Mobile WebServer w/ RWD
Platform
Internet
APIs Necessary to Support App Development
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/zachklein/54389823/
Something we can all agree on
Mobile Testing SUCKS!
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From the beginning, we have wanted to make Angry Birds available for every feasible Android device... We tested the game extensively on a large number of devices, and gathered all the feedback we received from our beta testing to address every possible issue.
So far, we have hesitated to create multiple versions of Angry Birds for the Android platform. But judging by the feedback we have received, we feel that by providing a lightweight solution, we are doing a favour for our fans.
http://www.rovio.com/index.php?mact=Blogs,cntnt01,showentry,0&cntnt01entryid=47&cntnt01returnid=58
Even Most Successful Developers Facethe Challenge of Testing on Enough Devices
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ARTICLES TOPICS ABOUT CONTACT CONTRIBUTE FEED
D E C E M B E R 14, 2010
Smartphone Browser Landscapeby P E T E R - P A U L K O C H
Published in: User Interface Design, Mobile, Mobile Design, Mobile Development
Discuss this article » | Share this article »
Users expect websites to work on their mobile phones. In two to three years, mobile support
will become standard for any site. Web developers must add mobile web development to their
skill set or risk losing clients.
How do you make websites mobile compatible? The answer is obvious: By testing them on all
mobile phones, and by solving the problems you encounter. But, that’s a useless answer. It’s
impossible to test your designs on every mobile phone out there. Within the mobile phone
landscape, there are at least ten operating systems (OSs) and fifteen browsers that require
consideration. Mobile devices are expensive, and not every web developer can afford to buy
five to ten of them. Testing “on all mobile phones” is impossible for most web developers.
In this article, I’ll give you an overview of the mobile web market, as well as phone platforms
and their browsers, so that you can decide which mobile devices to test on. Then, we’ll look at
how to set up a mobile test bed.
Search ALA
include discussions
TopicsCode
Content
Culture
Design
Mobile
Process
User Science
SnapshotMost web designers and
developers (not to
mention the entire
blogosphere) fall
squarely in the high-end
market. A cultural bias
exists against OSs aimed
at any other market. As
a result, most people
focus on the struggle
between iOS and
Android, and ignore the
rest. This has to change.
Stay in better touch withcustomers with
No.
320
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“Testing on as many devices as possible is a great idea in theory, but in practice it is untenable. Even if we buy a few devices to try to cover more ground, they will be outdated in just a few months or a year at most. So are we supposed to buy multiple devices per year?”posted at 11:32 am on December 14, 2010 by klayon
“If that’s the mobile landscape, I want no part of it.”posted at 07:22 am on December 15, 2010 by Polsonby
http://www.alistapart.com/comments/smartphone-browser-landscape/
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Mobile Portland Community Device Lab
• Dedicated location within mobile community in central, downtown Portland.
• Adjacent event space to be used for hosting Mobile Portland events and other user groups. Also available for developer training sessions.
• Free and open to anyone. Run as a non-profit.
• Located in 25,000 sq. ft. building leased by VC-funded mobile start up Urban Airship
• Other tenants in building include mobile developers Cloud Four, Uncorked Studios and Bank Simple.
• We’re creating a central hub for mobile activity in the Portland area. The building is already becoming a magnet for mobile developers.
Building Lobby
Device Lab Glass Office
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[email protected] | cloudfour.com/blog | @grigs | slides: bit.ly/bit.ly/grigs_padnug2011
http://www.flickr.com/photos/polvero/4232984120/in/faves-grigs/