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27 May, 2010

JAEA TonoKatsuhiro Hama

Hydrangea

7

ContentsMizunami URL Project (MIU Project)

1) Background of MIU2) What is MIU ?3) Construction progress4) Phase I investigation5) Phase II investigation6) Phase III investigation7) International collaboration

2

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Expected outcomeBy applying several investigation methods to the "real "geologicalenvironment, followings can be achieved* Feedback evaluation

, by confirmation and revision of geological environmental modelv by confirmation adequacy of investigation method adopted inprevious phase

# Evaluation of relationship between the characterization methods anddegree of understanding of the geological environment

* Synthesized investigation, analysis and assessment techniques foreach site investigation phase on NUMO's siting processe Technical know-how (success I failure experiences) on

related the techniques for investigation, analysis andassessment

3

Step-wise Investigation00-

I Construction Operation ]- A*Plan is subject to change

4

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4 Geology of the Tono Area

JNC TonoC""-

TWnO MIN - (Mbw O=Mc molts)

Fault

1.4-1(MO -kTUI&IyUN&Ai YaMad

4TWOMI Fail ZonM2Wkdb

- TMMANin ro-MWf cs . . 26m S- ] Simplified from Itolgawa (1980)5

Strategy of R&D in MIU project(1) Spatial scale

7 a,$w~~r.

(4) Iterative aRDroach. .N

Fz~

PhuelI

Uf Nam~ C"s. CMSaddUNduu'~mbomb* km.W.k bwodat. ftcw

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fSpatial scale

7

Important factors to be charactaizedand data requirements

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Investigation conceptPhase I Phase I1.

Step 0 I Step 2 i- -

ExistingboreholeI

ShallowboreholeI

DeepboreholeI

Crosshole Undergroundfacilit

To understand GW chemistry insedimentary rocks

9

Investigations in Phase I

1.Geological investigation2.Hydrogeological investigations3.Hydrochemical investigations

- Survey of existing information- Surface water/precipitation sampling/analysis- Groundwater samplingLanalysis- Bulk rock/mineral analysis- Geochemical modeling- Geostatistical analysis4.Rock mechanical investigations

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GW sampling procedureDrilling fluid

+Tracer

E1:7Ci

SO3Na

NHTracer (Na-naphthionate)000 10000Extracted volume (L)

11

lydrochemical conceptual modelaround MIUafter step3 (deep borehole investigation) investigation

i of MSB-2TShafts

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Issues for Phase II investigation

*Validation of the hydrochemical modelconstructed through the investigationsin Phase I.*ldentification of the general processes andmechanisms involved in the changes inthe hydrochemical environments in andaround the MIU.

13

Step-wise Investigation

Borehole!

ISurface-basedinvestigation =Construction [Operation]*Plan is subject to change

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Phase II Field Investigations" Geological mapping" Geophysical investigations (eg reverse VSP)* Hydraulic investigations* Monitoring (Inflow rate, pressure)* GW samplinglanalysis* Physicallmechanical tests* Stress measurement

WAN S" 0 |. hJ. F

Water Level Change15

Revision of Financial 2008 Plan

Sedimentary OverburdenUnconformity...,Granite "'

GL-200m

m Original PlanN Additional Plan

GL-1O0m (28 Aug ZOOS)

-300m Stage

-300m Access Galleryoff Main ShaftV---

--------------------------------------, -300m Measurement Nicheoff Ventilation Shaft

VGL-300m-300m )

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Why -300m Gallery?* Producing certain outcome without delay to the disposal project andfor safety regulations

...as assigned in Revised Basic Policy & Plan, Generic Programme etc* UHFD with larger inflow being suitable for studying countermeasuresagainst inflow, solute transport etc

...based on the investigation results obtained to date Promoting mutual understanding of the final disposal by establishingan open facility

...as assigned in revised Basic Policy & Plan, General Framework etc

17

Step-wise Investigation

Borehole,/

I Surface-basedinvestigation IOperation][onstruction IIW

*Plan is subject to change

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Planned Investigations

ESpecific location of investigation($should be optimized by the geologicalinvetigations.

-Lowerparsely fractured domainUpper highly fractured domainFault predicted00.

lOOm

International collaborationKAERIJAEA collaboration

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International collaborationNagraIJAEA collaboration

21

More information of the MIU project is available onhttp://www.jaea.go.jp/O4/tono/m iu_ewelcome to the MIU

Tow Geoeir"e CAtt (GC) Jew Aft*c Etwo A , (.AEA) has hea fasflngA.awk* ange fgeoaclatt reearh inartw ODIo a trm c an td ogmicWha forOne f mo O rpMOS ofMe eongio eosdolft rueach prrar s tie MWNUndeogrord Reach Labortn (MIU)roect t tdeTomorm cthal Ja .tTwo1.000mdem stla aft several rift wf be emawnaedorgeocedic reseach did a kahtyfwighneer Iedrdqma Eheentfiated.JAEA as a carir cotgeosci reseamcht twokcabcne:the bocatoror kwagodoa of ystalne rtok is tin umiard Cy, Gtu Prefectore:the bloctr forhwskadon of rdimestay rock sat Homfw Hoidai.

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Addressing tectonic issues forsiting a HLW repository in Japan

Junichi GotoSite CharacterizationGroupScience and Technology Department

Nuclear Waste Management Organizationof Japan (NUMO)

NUMO.INRC Meeting28 May 2010

Long-term predictability of tectonics in Japan- Fundamental structure of the present plate system was established at around 15 Ma It takes more than one million years for a plate system to changePresent tectonic condition will not change for the next one hundred thousand years

Geological environment in Japan can bepredicted over several tens of thousand yearsby extrapolating the past geological evidences

Deterministic approachcan basically be appliedfor evaluation of tectonics

15Ma:Termination of opening of theJapan Sea (rotation of theNE and SW Japan Arcs)1.8Ma:Development of ISTL, start ofactivity of MTL, opening ofOkinawa trough and lzu-Ogasawara back-arc basin

Present:Collision of the lzu-Peninsulaand convergence of platesalong the eastern margin ofthe Japan SeaNI

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Sting Factors for earthquake and fault activityPIAs should not include active faults -- iiidentified in the nationwide-scale maps,based on aerial photographsfor inland areas and sonicprospecting for offshore. -

"1:2,000,000 Active Fault "Quatemary Structure Ma pMap of Japan" (2002) of Japanese Waters"(2001)PIAs should not include the following Slocations and zones identified by site-specific literature surveys;a. Locations where active faults are identified

in other literature information b. uou*=.umtmb. Crushed zones and surrounding deformation -'izones of active faults

c. Potential Zones of branching, extension, newgeneration, reactivation of active faultsd. Zones of active folds or flexures.

2 C. ZX 4 Mm d.'AESM3U)UEO)Mt

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Deterministic assessment for siting NPP

NRC Meeting28 May 2010

R&D on the remained issues:

) Evaluation of active fold/flexure zones> Evaluation of active fault zones) Distribution of latent active faults

Activity of faults intersected undergroundEarthquake ground motion undergroundP~bb~si ass f :tvt yHypocenterN~:4 f~< J~r~opeEarthquake ground motion underground

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1000 'IT

Shinjo,Nilgata "

Wave growth = H J/1n6yr

H~- L

0

+ .. *

0.1 -1L . i ......n' I in Inn ilnn L (km)Identification of relevant active fold zonesWIWI)

ll1t! H 8a

O5:.5

I Exclusion zone* Flow chart for evaluation * Model experiment using CT- scannerRC Meeting28 May 2010

Active fault zones

activefoldlflexure >10km.geophysical data conjugate geomet other"model experiments"numerical modeling echelonlineament analysis lineament analysis - lineament analysisalong major fault along major fault | along major fault on conjugate set *at bent/stepped part

identification of active fault zoner- - - by surface trace and lineament distribution ro ------------------- identification of process zone

by lineament distributionLS and earlystage of P1 IP1 (field investigation) I

------------------ identification o f deformation zone5 km

NRC Meeting28 May 2010 * Flow chart for evaluationConcept of lineament analysis

01nib ofJo* PJfl

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Siting Factors for igneous activityH 9-'

100

PIAs should not include the areaswithin a 15km radius from the centerof the Quaternary volcanoes. = 0

U- 204.

"i4he catalogue of Qu.1 3 5 7 9 Ii 13 I 17 19 2t 23 25 27 48

"Maximum distance" betweenthe center of a volcano andIts constituent edifices (kin)

PIAs should not include the areas that: IUKMare definitely expected to havemagmatic intrusion or eruption, or

) have significant thermal andhydrothermal effects,

outside the 15km circle.NRC Meeting2 8 M y 2 0 10 ' kkl U O Nl E Ek I O U

R&D on the remained issues: igneous activityII

(A A I4%Large calderaeruption

Thermal anomalyaway fromvolcanic front

Occurrence of new volcanoes(between volcanic clusters,monogenetic volcanoes)Migration of magma from existingvolcanoes

Occurrence of large calderaeruptions) Evaluation of thermal and

hydrothermal effectsProbabilistic assessment of 1igneous activityRC Meeting28 May 2010

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Occurrence of new volcanoesFlow chart showing basic procedure for evaluating regionsof future volcanism around the target area

IEvaluation on a scale of island arc I0 Distribution, lithofacies,stratigraphy and ages ofigneous rocks*Tectonic evolution, etc

* Position of the volcanic front and its migration) Trench side or back-arc side? I* Continuity of subduction conditions(temporal changes in tectonics)Determination of the time range of evaluation i

mIIEvaluation on scale of volcanic cluster I

* Distribution, lithofacies,stratigraphy of Igneousrocks" Radiometric age data* Chemical analysis data, etc* Toporaphical data* Distribution and temporalchanges of fault

movements* Distribution and temporalchanges of uplift andsubsidence* Gravity anomaly data, etc* Seismic velocity structure" Thermal structure of thecrust, etc

_ Spatio-temporal patterns in volcanism among volcanoes 1SRegularity or uneven distribution of volcanism JI" *I Crustal structure and movement related to volcanIsmIndicating concentration of volcanismControlling volcanism

e@ Evolution of hot regions within the mantle wedge) Present state of the position an d extent of low velocityanomalies) Continuity of hot regions based on correlation withspatio-temporal patterns in volcanism71 X - -

Io1 (oannl"iE Ilmndal I

NR(9RIF28

Occurrence of new volcanoes -case study -EBeveonor

(modified from Hasegawa et al., 2004)A O.mew d TheVokcancobW Soo-ty J. 1999)A A n Japan Meaololcl AQgecy 2003)Kondo.e (2W4)

0: elevation > 500mvolcanism since 5 Ma+ uplift due to magmatismhigh likelihood of volcanism

* E-W trending basementtopography * Low-velocity anomalieswithin the mantle wedgeQ : velocity perturbation < -4%potential magmatism in the mantleneed careful investigation

NRCMwi, Key Phenomena related to volcano distribution28 May 201 _ mm* Evaluation (example)

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Migration of magma from existing volcanoesTime (ky)

a $ b 4E0

on- 10

I-0 .0AoE -04

CLo

(ki) Compressional -t .>Extensional -- AC d '11O0REky) ii

5 IIHB I1 * Relationship between preferred orientation ofvein growth and stress distribution (Miura, et.al., 2006), i IE-1 E-2 Middle L-1 L-2Early stage stage Late stage* Relationship between vent migration

and volcanic features (Ishizuka, 1999)I

Indicator for preferred orientation* Orientation of vent alignment* Orientation of regional stress* In compressional regime: aHnmax"In extensional regime: uHmin

\.6 Orientation of strike-slin faultIf more than one apply,the area is in a preferred orientation 1of magma migration _=1If more than one apply,magma tends to migrateNRC Meeting28 May 2010

Siting Factors for uplif and erosionAreas with clear evidences of uplift more than 300m during the last 100,000 yearswill be excluded from PIAs*Trend of future uplift can be estimated fromanalyses of existing terraces V*Long-term behavior of erosion is difficult to.

estimate

Conservative evaluation : Uplift = Erosion*Adequate disposal depth will make theeffect of approaching waste to the surfacedue to uplift and erosion less significant*Final Disposal Act defines the disposaldepth as 300m or greater

-U-IExclusion criteria: Uplift more than 300m

NRCI during the last 100,000 years28 May 2U1UIi I if

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Improved assessment of uplift/erosionInvestigation planning for: Distribution of terraces"Stratigraphy and age of terraces"Relative elevation (indicator of uplift) Distribution of uplift/subsidence"Initial model of uplift/erosion

Uplift/subsidence"Surface mapping" Dating of geologicalformations"Dating of terraces"Borehole surveys*Trench surveys

1,

Maximum erosion Geophysics"Borehole surveys" Dating of geologicalformationsRiver terrace ILaplaciani < 0.5* Correlation of river terraces using DEM data

Target of investigations* Amount and distribution ofuplift/subsidence in theI

500400

.30020

0

Target of investigations- Maximum amount oferosion in the past

pIenL 4,Items of evaluation Amount and distribution of

uplift/subsidence in theItems of evaluation Maximum amount of

erosion in the futureIULUI W I

30 20Distance from sea (km) 01

model - IConformity,with

favorable facto* Flow chart for evaluation* Detailed correlation of river terraces: differencein elevation =*consistent with fault displacement

Probabilistic tectonic hazard assessmentStep 1 Data gathering" Area: 10 4 -- 105 km2" Literature and database information

(topography, geology, geophysics, volcanismactive fault, uplift, GPS, seismicity)

41.Step 2 Dataset preparation"Check contents and quality of data"Correction/addition for improvement

Step 3b Data analyses on rockdeformation" Data processing: GPS, seismicitysurface deformation ExpertIs * Conceptual models, alternative model licitatie"Setting parameters and weights 1 -- --

b Strain rate m g Step 6 Interfacingwith PA 4Step 4b Strain rate mapping ; Event description (place, timing, duration,* Conversion to strain rate: GPI extent, magnitude)seismicity, surface deformation aDescription of impacting processes" Mapping by Monte Carlo simulation : Assessmentin different timeframes" Differencing three mapsStep 7 Siting cofdne vlainsltst-vauto Hig: Lo w susetblity of haad.No

need fo detaile PA anivest iatonc Medium: Need detailed PA and furtherinvestigations for reducing uncertainties* Low: Need investigations for significantimprovement of uncertainties---- -

Repositorycncept

DecisIon-makingon sitin

Step8 Requirement on data Pl.ningData for reducing uncertainties and Investigationimproving siting confidence levels | rOlramm ARC Meeting28 May 2010

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Step 3a: Data analysis on volcanismGrouping of volcanoes

412

40-

392_

382

Geophysical data analysis Conceptual modeling1390 140" 1410 142"

AdVs

-6 -3 0 3 6Velocity perturbation (%)Hasegawa&Nakajima, 2004

Wed wntsirb dmdt *a 'c*'dbw-ve.Iocfyz mriftrrftm a adwss

O m Su..so

-3 -10 km

UPIPERCRUST

20kmC-d --

LOWERiCRUST

Edil~e-oWISC.

SflaI- ,e0.o,

II30kn S-k00 Maho -

>30km Pfologkoi Mohoh4AKTL

372 O--

A Group 3AA Group3BA Group 3C

Cladistic analysisHot zone model

Volcano hazard increases inareas with geophysical featuresassociated with magma fluxes

Step 4a: Probability maps of future volcanismProbability MEL-(100 ka )

Cox Process Method -J

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Step 5: Probabilistic site assessment- volcanism -

P - &Oxlo

0.04Site14 0.03 Sitel Site 2

0.00..0.0 . . 4

0 50 0 50 0 50Bandwidth (km) Bandwidth (kmn) Bandwidth (kmn)

NRC Meeting . probability uncertainty28 May 2010

3b: Data ana on rock deformation

GPS velocity gradient = mm/km/yr = strain rate Seismicity = seismic moment +' \., . Active Fault Kostrov equation = strain rate

I /V P"-. ' JU m_NR C Meeting Surface deformation (slip or tilting rate) = mm/km/yr = strain rate28 May 2010

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Step 3b: Logic tree developmentGPS logic tree for probabilistic strain map

=o#ontinuation of logic treein he same way as the othermodels.All branches are notshown due to space constraints.TBA = Weightings to be decided on

... Weighting coefficientsbased on expert opinion

0.2 Uoalon-tike.. / ,.lsubdctio couling

NRC Meeting28 May 2010 uk"dolar

Step 4b: Probabilistic strain mapping"Best-estimate" strain models

142' 139' 140' 141' 142'

41 41'

40' 40 '

39 ' 39 '

1lQ 141 141 149 lAQi 1400 141*GPS Seismicity 14V 38* 139 140* 141 * 142*Surface Deformation(active fault + tilting)

NRC Meeting28 May 2010 on..~

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Step 5: Probabilistic site assessment - rock deformation -Site I GPS Site

0.03 -- SEISo3.25 V RFDE.. " ---...URFDEF I /0.2EQ WGTDAVI

}0.1/

Strain rate ('nanostrain' iyear.) .Site I Seismicity

00

0.4C 0.41 0.3

0.30.20.20.10.1

0.00

1 10 100 1000Strain rate (nano strain / year) _*Cumulative plot (probability of exceedance)

Site IStrain rate (nano strain Iyear)

Site I Surface DeformationC 0.3.

0 3LD0.26v 0.2.S 0.15'C 0.1

0,0

GPS I -1TILT IISEIS 1-4---WG T

01 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 65 73 77 81 85 89Strain rate (nano strain / year)

20 40 60Strain rate (nstraintyr)

80l m m

NRC Meetin *Frequency (probability) histogram28 May 2011 *Uncertainties (1a) of strain rate

Conclusions*it is considered that the PIAs and DIAs can be selected with a

certain degree of confidence by applying the improveddeterministic approach.

*The probabilistic approach, which provides a quantitative measurefor assessing tectonic hazards and inherent uncertainties, willcomplement the deterministic approach.

*These approaches will be more reliable by incorporating theresults of independent studies performed by other domesticresearch institutes.

m m oINRC Meeting 1ulhs w AI28 May 2010

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Spciic 0etc coniton of th epns s 4480

Location of 4 plates around JapanPlate boundaries (blue lines), the distribution ofrecent earthquakes (yellow dots) and activevolcanoes (red triangles).

TOoecetf the World's

atvvocnes are found andSmore than 1,500 earthquakes|are recorded per year in Japan.

Conceptual model of volcanism insubduction zone 2

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4o

aGeological characteristics The Japanese Islands are located in the tectonicallyof the Japanese islands, active circum-Pacific belt (the Ring of Fire), soespecially with regards to earthquakes and volcanic eruption frequently occur...geosphere stabilityDisturbing the isolation Two potentialfunction of geosphere impacts of(Isolation Failure scenarios) geotectonic eventson geological-disposal system

Site selectionSelection oftectonically stableregions for geologicaldisposal

[Disturbing the expectedsafety function of geosphere(Perturbation Scenarios) ]-40-Engineering measuresDesign and installation ofthe engineered barriersystem suitable for thefuture changes inhydraulic condition etc.

I Safety assessment IConfirmation of the safety of the constructed geologicaldisposal system

I

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JAA' esachanvlpmntpo6Objective

To prvd scetii baefcsn6nases eto h

geosph6r stblt o-elgcldsoa

R & D ~ciite

.- ccrdn to NUO s~iigfatr. ara wihi a raiu of1km Sro Qutrnr vocaos aedet e xlddfo

II

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7

r Reseat-clv,, tor potentiai voica 00-

C

10000

1000

ICoo0

r Dist&"c (WM 0U 1U zU Yj 4U wDistance (kin)

2D resistivity structure along the line A-A'Vertical cross-section of 3D S-wave seismicvelocity structure along the line A-A'

Geo hy s aldat inca e te e istnceof ~iaefiis A,1h toll ire" o

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r Reearcehnolgy fr ptental vlc0 68139" 140'

et4WHe (R/RA) 0 1W 20 30 (0In)0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.o

Geographical distribution of 3He/4He ratios of gasesfrom ho t springs around the lide MountainsHe /4He and 40ArP/Ar end-members in the Earth

LGeochemical data indicate the high-temperature materials are estimatedto be newly ascending magma rather than solidified old magma,

Moo I

To pl~arovie cintfic b aTasefocusing n evluating the geosphstblt of lo gtr is lto of ra ia tv a t

R & D acivit10

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BackgrOUnd,According to NUIVO s siting factors, areas with uplift of nno-re than300m during the last 100,000 years will be excluded fromcardidate disposal sites,To enhance confidence in long-term safety. it is in-,portant topredict the future changes in hydraulic condition clue to topograpNcevolution, and assess whether or not the engineered barrier systemsuitable lor the (-,,xpected changes in hydraU11C. condition.To provide numerical simulation of the future topographic changesthat can be useful for evaluation of the changes in hydrauliccondition inthe future.

The developed methods will be availablefor engineeringmeasures and safety assessment taken into accotint perttirbation14 scenario.

11

Preic,'o mehd'rftr oorpi-

Hill slope domainCreep of weatheredmaterials

Channel domainErosion, transportation,sedimentation byrunning water

Sea domainErosion, transportation,sedimentation byocean wave andcoastal current

12

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N,

difference insurface elevationA'.,,a-

Distribution map showing the difference in surface elevation betweenpresent and after 120,000 years (uplift rate of 0.6 mm/y.)I average erosion, 9.09m; average deposition, 5.50myears

Topography after 12,000 years is not recognized to be remarkablechanges. in comparison with that present. I3

Communication with society 46Project tepoits andanflLlfl lepOltS

Repott thtoughacadetni(- jouinalsand IlleetingsI Press releases 1auUinbI ,I Ciflh!Ilii k

-go*