mk 1 kuliah 2 financial environment
TRANSCRIPT
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Why Corporations Need Financial Markets and
Institutions
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Review:Roles of Financial Manager
1. Investment Decisions
2. Financing Decisions
3. Dividend PolicyThe Objective of Financial Management
Max. Value ≠ Max. Profit Max. Value = Max. Shareholders Wealth
= Max. Market Value of Stock
Agency Conflict1. Manager vs. Shareholders
2. Managers/Shareholders vs Debtholders
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Beberapa Pertanyaan Mendasar Jika Anda sebagai Seorang Investor Manakah yang lebih menarik bagi Anda, investasi pada deposito, saham,
obligasi, reksa dana, forex, opsi, kontrak berjangka atau real estat? Jika Anda akan berinvestasi pada saham atau obligasi atau pada aset riil,
apa yang menjadi pertimbangan Anda? Jika Anda akan menilai saham suatu perusahaan, apa yang menjadi dasar
analisis Anda?
Jika Anda sebagai Seorang Manajer Keuangan Apa yang harus Anda persiapkan agar investor tertarik berinvestasi pada
perusahaan Anda? Apakah untuk pendanaan perusahaan Anda, manakah yang paling optimal:
pendanaan dengan saham, hutang bank atau obligasi? Apakah pendanaan perusahaan Anda sebaiknya menggunakan pendanaan
jangka pendek atau jangka panjang? Jika transaksi bisnis Anda menggunakan valas, bagaimanakah Anda
melakukan manajemen risiko?
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PROCESS FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARY
FINANCIAL MARKETS
SURPLUS UNITS
(INVESTORS)
DEFICIT UNITS
(BORROWERS)
1
43
2
SECURITIES SECURITIES
FUNDS FUNDS
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FINANCIAL MARKETSources of Longterms vs Short-term Capital1. Capital Market (Stock Market and Bond Market)2. Money Market
Financial Intermediaries/Institutions1. Bank 4. Insurance2. Venture Capital 5. Pension Funds3. Mutual Funds 6. Factoring and Leasing
Speculation and Hedging1. Option Market 3. Futures Market2. Forex Market
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Flow of Savings
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FINANCIAL MARKETS (STOCK MARKET)
Primary
Markets
Secondary
Markets
OTC
Markets
Money
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Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Financial Markets (Debt Market)
Company
Issue Debt
CashInvestors
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Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Financial Markets (Mutual Fund)
Bank of AmericaBank of America
Windsor Fund
Windsor Fund
Investors
Investors
$ $
Sells shares
Issues shares
Open-EndClose-End
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Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Financial Markets
Funds
Funds
Banks
Insurance Cos.
Brokerage Firms
Obligations
Depositors
Policyholders
Investors
Obligations
Company
Intermediary
Investor
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Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Financial Markets (Bank)
Banks
Depositors
$2.5 mil
Cash
Loan
Deposits
Company
Intermediary
Investor
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Irwin/McGraw-Hill
Financial Markets (Insurance)
Insurance Company
Policyholders
$250 mil
Cash
Loan
Sell policies Issue Stock
Company
Intermediary
Investor
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Function of Financial Markets1. Transporting cash across time
2. Risk transfer and diversification
3. Liquidity
4. Payment mechanism
5. Provide information Commodity prices Interest rates Company values
TRANSACTION COSTS
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RISK AND RETURN PENGERTIAN RETURN DAN RISIKO
ESTIMASI RETURN DAN RISIKO ASET TUNGGAL
ANALISIS RISIKO PORTOFOLIO
DIVERSIFIKASI
ESTIMASI RETURN DAN RISIKO PORTOFOLIO 4-14
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PENGERTIAN RETURN Return adalah imbalan atas keberanian
investor menanggung risiko, serta komitmen waktu dan dana yang telah dikeluarkan oleh investor.
Return juga merupakan salah satu motivator orang melakukan investasi.
Sumber-sumber return terdiri dari dua komponen:
1. Yield2. Capital gains (loss)
Dengan demikian, return total investasi adalah:
Return total = yield + capital gains (loss) (4.1)
Tks untuk Eduardus Tandelilin 4-15
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PENGERTIAN RISIKO
Risiko adalah kemungkinan perbedaan antara return aktual yang diterima dengan return yang diharapkan.
Sumber-sumber risiko suatu investasi terdiri dari: 1. Risiko suku bunga2. Risiko pasar3. Risiko inflasi4. Risiko bisnis5. Risiko finansial6. Risiko likuiditas7. Risiko nilai tukar mata uang8. Risiko negara (country risk)
4-16
Tks untuk Eduardus Tandelilin
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PENGERTIAN RISIKO
Risiko juga bisa dibedakan menjadi dua jenis:1. Risiko dalam konteks aset tunggal.
- Risiko yang harus ditanggung jika berinvestasi hanya pada satu aset saja.
2. Risiko dalam konteks portofolio aset.a. Risiko sistematis (risiko pasar/risiko
umum).- Terkait dengan perubahan yang terjadi di
pasar dan mempengaruhi return seluruh saham yang ada di pasar.
b. Risiko tidak sistematis (risiko spesifik).
- Terkait dengan perubahan kondisi mikro perusahaan, dan bisa
diminimalkan dengan melakukan diversifikasi. 4-17
Tks untuk Eduardus Tandelilin
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ESTIMASI RETURN SEKURITAS
Untuk menghitung return yang diharapkan dari suatu aset tunggal kita perlu mengetahui distribusi probabilitas return aset bersangkutan, yang terdiri dari:
1. Tingkat return yang mungkin terjadi
2. Probabilitas terjadinya tingkat return tersebut
4-18
Tks untuk Eduardus Tandelilin
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ESTIMASI RETURN SEKURITAS
Dengan demikian, return yang diharapkan dari suatu aset tunggal bisa dihitung dengan rumus:
(4.2)
dimana: E(R) = Return yang diharapkan dari suatu
sekuritasRi = Return ke-i yang mungkin
terjadipri = probabilitas kejadian return ke-
i n = banyaknya return yang
mungkin terjadi
4-19
n
iii
1
pr R (R) E
Tks untuk Eduardus Tandelilin
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ESTIMASI RETURN SEKURITAS
Di samping cara perhitungan return di atas, kita juga bisa menghitung return dengan dua cara:
1. Arithmetic mean2. Geometric mean
Rumus untuk menghitung arithmetic mean:
(4.3)
Rumus untuk menghitung geometric mean:G = [(1 + R1) (1 + R2) …(1 + Rn)]
1/n – 1(4.4)
4-20
nX
X
Tks untuk Eduardus Tandelilin
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ESTIMASI RETURN SEKURITAS: ASET ABC
Berdasarkan tabel distribusi probabilitas di atas, maka tingkat return yang diharapkan dari aset ABC tersebut bisa dihitung dengan menerapkan rumus 4.2:E(R) = [(0,30) (0,20)] + [(0,40) (0,15)] + [(0,30) (0,10)]
= 0,15 atau 15%
4-21
Kondisi Ekonomi Probabilitas Return
Ekonomi kuat 0,30 0,20
Ekonomi sedang 0,40 0,15
Resesi 0,30 0,10
Tks untuk Eduardus Tandelilin
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ARITHMETIC MEAN: CONTOH
Berdasarkan data dalam tabel di atas, arithmetic mean bisa dihitung dengan menggunakan rumus 4.3 di atas:
4-22
Tahun Return (%) Return Relatif (1 + return)
1995 15,25 1,1525
1996 20,35 1,2035
1997 -17,50 0,8250
1998 -10,75 0,8925
1999 15,40 1,1540
5
15,40] (-10,75) (-17,50) 20,35 [15,25 X
% 4,55 2,75][
5
2X Tks untuk Eduardus
Tandelilin
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GEOMETRIC MEAN: CONTOH
Berdasarkan data dalam tabel di atas, geometric mean bisa dihitung dengan rumus 4.4:
G= [(1 + 0,1525) (1 + 0,2035) (1 – 0,1750) (1- 0,1075) (1 + 0,1540)]1/5 – 1
= [(1,1525) (1,2035) (0,8250) (0,8925) (1,1540)]1/5 – 1= (1,1786) 1/5 – 1= 1,0334 – 1 = 0,334 = 3,34%
4-23
Tks untuk Eduardus Tandelilin
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MENGHITUNG RISIKO ASET TUNGGAL
Risiko aset tunggal bisa dilihat dari besarnya penyebaran distribusi probabilitas return. Ada dua ukuran risiko aset tunggal, yaitu:
1. Varians2. Deviasi standar
Di samping ukuran penyebaran tersebut, kita juga perlu menghitung risiko relatif aset tunggal, yang bisa diukur dengan ‘koefisien variasi’.
Risiko relatif ini menunjukkan risiko per unit return yang diharapkan.
4-24
Tks untuk Eduardus Tandelilin
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MENGHITUNG RISIKO ASET TUNGGAL
Rumus untuk menghitung varians, standar deviasi, dan koefisien variasi adalah:
Varians return = 2 = [Ri – E(R)]2 pri
(4.5)Standar deviasi = = (2)1/2
(4.6)
(4.7)
dimana:2 = varians return = standar deviasi
E(Ri) = Return ke-i yang mungkin terjadi
pri = probabilitas kejadian return ke-I(R) = Return yang diharapkan dari suatu sekuritas
4-25
)(RiE
i
diharapkan yang return return deviasi standar
variasi Koefisien
Tks untuk Eduardus Tandelilin
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PERHITUNGAN VARIANS & STANDAR DEVIASI: CONTOH
Tabel 4.3. Penghitungan varians dan standar deviasi saham DEF
Eduardus Tandelilin © 2001
4-26
(2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
[(Ri – E(R)]2 pri
0,2 0,014 -0,010 0,0001 0,00002
0,2 0,002 -0,070 0,0049 0,00098
0,3 0,024 0,000 0,0000 0,00000
0,1 0,010 0,020 0,0004 0,00004
0,2 0,030 0,070 0,0049 0,00098
1,0 E(R) = 0,080
Varians = 0,00202
Standar deviasi = = (2)1/2 = (0,00202)1/2 = 0,0449 = 4,49%
(1)
Return (R)
0,07
0,01
0,08
0,10
0, 15
Probabilitas (pr)
(1) X (2) R – E(R) [(R-E(R)]2
CV = 0,0449/0,080 = 0,56125
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Eduardus Tandelilin © 2001
1-27
GAMBAR 1.1. HUBUNGAN RISIKO DAN RETURN
Profit+
-Losses
Return RiskHigh Return
High Risk
Low Risk
Low potential for fluctuation
Low risk investments tend to have a low potential for fluctuation
High risk investments tend to have a great potential for fluctuation
Risk increase in proportion to the Y axis
High potential for fluctuation
Sumber: http://www.softcapital.co.jp/eigo/return1.html
Return increase in proportion
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GAMBAR 1.2. HUBUNGAN RISIKO DAN RETURN PADA BERBAGAI ASET
Eduardus Tandelilin © 2001
1-28
Risiko tinggi
Ekuitas Internasional
Risiko diatas rata-rata
Risiko sedang
Risiko moderat
Obligasi perusahaan
Risiko rendah
Tingkat bunga bebas
risiko
Kontrak ‘futures’Opsi ‘put’
& ‘call’
Saham
Obligasi pemerint
ah
Return yang
diharapkan
Risiko
RF
Sumber: Farrel, James L., 1997, “Portfolio Management: Theory and Application”, McGraw- Hill, Singapore, hal. 11.
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PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
DON’T PUT YOUR ALL EGGS INTO ONE BASKET
(TRADE OFF BETWEEN RISK AND RETURN)
EFFICIENT PORTFOLIO OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO
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CHAPTER 8Risk and Rates of Return
Stand-alone risk Portfolio risk Risk & return: CAPM / SML
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Investment returns
The rate of return on an investment can be calculated as follows:
(Amount received – Amount invested)
Return = ________________________
Amount invested
For example, if $1,000 is invested and $1,100 is returned after one year, the rate of return for this investment is:
($1,100 - $1,000) / $1,000 = 10%.
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What is investment risk?
Two types of investment risk– Stand-alone risk– Portfolio risk
Investment risk is related to the probability of earning a low or negative actual return.
The greater the chance of lower than expected or negative returns, the riskier the investment.
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Probability distributions
A listing of all possible outcomes, and the probability of each occurrence.
Can be shown graphically.
Expected Rate of Return
Rate ofReturn (%)100150-70
Firm X
Firm Y
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Selected Realized Returns, 1926 – 2004
Average Standard Return Deviation
Small-company stocks 17.5% 33.1%Large-company stocks 12.4 20.3L-T corporate bonds 6.2 8.6L-T government bonds 5.8 9.3U.S. Treasury bills 3.8 3.1
Source: Based on Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation: (Valuation Edition) 2005 Yearbook (Chicago: Ibbotson Associates, 2005), p28.
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Investment alternatives
Economy Prob. T-Bill HT Coll USR MP
Recession
0.1 5.5% -27.0%
27.0% 6.0% -17.0%
Below avg
0.2 5.5% -7.0% 13.0% -14.0%
-3.0%
Average 0.4 5.5% 15.0% 0.0% 3.0% 10.0%
Above avg
0.2 5.5% 30.0% -11.0%
41.0% 25.0%
Boom 0.1 5.5% 45.0% -21.0%
26.0% 38.0%
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Why is the T-bill return independent of the economy? Do T-bills promise a
completely risk-free return?
T-bills will return the promised 5.5%, regardless of the economy.
No, T-bills do not provide a completely risk-free return, as they are still exposed to inflation. Although, very little unexpected inflation is likely to occur over such a short period of time.
T-bills are also risky in terms of reinvestment rate risk.T-bills are risk-free in the default sense of the word.
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How do the returns of HT and Coll. behave in relation to the market?
HT – Moves with the economy, and has a positive correlation. This is typical.
Coll. – Is countercyclical with the economy, and has a negative correlation. This is unusual.
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Calculating the expected return
12.4% (0.1) (45%)
(0.2) (30%) (0.4) (15%)
(0.2) (-7%) (0.1) (-27%) r
P r r
return of rate expected r
HT
^
N
1iii
^
^
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Summary of expected returns
Expected returnHT 12.4%Market 10.5%USR 9.8%T-bill 5.5%Coll. 1.0%
HT has the highest expected return, and appears to be the best investment alternative, but is it really? Have we failed to account for risk?
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Calculating standard deviation
deviation Standard
2Variance
i2
N
1ii P)r(rσ
ˆ
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Standard deviation for each investment
15.2%
18.8% 20.0%
13.2% 0.0%
(0.1)5.5) - (5.5
(0.2)5.5) - (5.5 (0.4)5.5) - (5.5
(0.2)5.5) - (5.5 (0.1)5.5) - (5.5
P )r (r
M
USRHT
CollbillsT
2
22
22
billsT
N
1ii
2^
i
21
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Comparing standard deviations
USR
Prob.T - bill
HT
0 5.5 9.8 12.4 Rate of Return (%)
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Comments on standard deviation as a measure of risk
Standard deviation (σi) measures total, or stand-alone, risk.
The larger σi is, the lower the probability that actual returns will be closer to expected returns.
Larger σi is associated with a wider probability distribution of returns.
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Comparing risk and return
Security Expected return, r
Risk, σ
T-bills 5.5% 0.0%
HT 12.4% 20.0%
Coll* 1.0% 13.2%
USR* 9.8% 18.8%
Market 10.5% 15.2%
* Seem out of place.
^
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Coefficient of Variation (CV)
A standardized measure of dispersion about the expected value, that shows the risk per unit of return.
r
return Expecteddeviation Standard
CV ˆ
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Risk rankings, by coefficient of variation
CVT-bill 0.0HT 1.6Coll. 13.2USR 1.9Market 1.4
Collections has the highest degree of risk per unit of return.
HT, despite having the highest standard deviation of returns, has a relatively average CV.
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Illustrating the CV as a measure of relative risk
σA = σB , but A is riskier because of a larger probability of losses. In other words, the same amount of risk (as measured by σ) for smaller returns.
0
A B
Rate of Return (%)
Prob.
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Investor attitude towards risk
Risk aversion – assumes investors dislike risk and require higher rates of return to encourage them to hold riskier securities.
Risk premium – the difference between the return on a risky asset and a riskless asset, which serves as compensation for investors to hold riskier securities.
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Portfolio construction:Risk and return
Assume a two-stock portfolio is created with $50,000 invested in both HT and Collections.
A portfolio’s expected return is a weighted average of the returns of the portfolio’s component assets.
Standard deviation is a little more tricky and requires that a new probability distribution for the portfolio returns be devised.
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Calculating portfolio expected return
6.7% (1.0%) 0.5 (12.4%) 0.5 r
rw r
:average weighted a is r
p
^
N
1i
i
^
ip
^
p
^
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An alternative method for determining portfolio expected return
Economy Prob.
HT Coll Port.
Recession
0.1 -27.0%
27.0% 0.0%
Below avg
0.2 -7.0% 13.0% 3.0%
Average 0.4 15.0% 0.0% 7.5%
Above avg
0.2 30.0% -11.0%
9.5%
Boom 0.1 45.0% -21.0%
12.0%6.7% (12.0%) 0.10 (9.5%) 0.20
(7.5%) 0.40 (3.0%) 0.20 (0.0%) 0.10 rp
^
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Calculating portfolio standard deviation and CV
0.51 6.7%3.4%
CV
3.4%
6.7) - (12.0 0.10
6.7) - (9.5 0.20
6.7) - (7.5 0.40
6.7) - (3.0 0.20
6.7) - (0.0 0.10
p
21
2
2
2
2
2
p
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Comments on portfolio risk measures
σp = 3.4% is much lower than the σi of either stock (σHT = 20.0%; σColl. = 13.2%).
σp = 3.4% is lower than the weighted average of HT and Coll.’s σ (16.6%).
Therefore, the portfolio provides the average return of component stocks, but lower than the average risk.
Why? Negative correlation between stocks.
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General comments about risk
σ 35% for an average stock.Most stocks are positively (though not
perfectly) correlated with the market (i.e., ρ between 0 and 1).
Combining stocks in a portfolio generally lowers risk.
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Returns distribution for two perfectly negatively correlated stocks (ρ = -1.0)
-10
15 15
25 2525
15
0
-10
Stock W
0
Stock M
-10
0
Portfolio WM
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Returns distribution for two perfectly positively correlated stocks (ρ = 1.0)
Stock M
0
15
25
-10
Stock M’
0
15
25
-10
Portfolio MM’
0
15
25
-10
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Creating a portfolio:Beginning with one stock and adding randomly selected stocks to portfolio
σp decreases as stocks added, because they would not be perfectly correlated with the existing portfolio.
Expected return of the portfolio would remain relatively constant.
Eventually the diversification benefits of adding more stocks dissipates (after about 10 stocks), and for large stock portfolios, σp tends to converge to 20%.
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Illustrating diversification effects of a stock portfolio
# Stocks in Portfolio10 20 30 40 2,000+
Diversifiable Risk
Market Risk
20
0
Stand-Alone Risk, sp
sp (%)35
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Breaking down sources of risk
Stand-alone risk = Market risk + Diversifiable risk
Market risk – portion of a security’s stand-alone risk that cannot be eliminated through diversification. Measured by beta.
Diversifiable risk – portion of a security’s stand-alone risk that can be eliminated through proper diversification.
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Failure to diversify If an investor chooses to hold a one-stock portfolio
(doesn’t diversify), would the investor be compensated for the extra risk they bear?– NO!– Stand-alone risk is not important to a well-
diversified investor.– Rational, risk-averse investors are concerned with
σp, which is based upon market risk.– There can be only one price (the market return) for
a given security.– No compensation should be earned for holding
unnecessary, diversifiable risk.
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Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Model linking risk and required returns. CAPM suggests that there is a Security Market Line (SML) that states that a stock’s required return equals the risk-free return plus a risk premium that reflects the stock’s risk after diversification.
ri = rRF + (rM – rRF) bi
Primary conclusion: The relevant riskiness of a stock is its contribution to the riskiness of a well-diversified portfolio.
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Beta
Measures a stock’s market risk, and shows a stock’s volatility relative to the market.
Indicates how risky a stock is if the stock is held in a well-diversified portfolio.
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Comments on beta
If beta = 1.0, the security is just as risky as the average stock.
If beta > 1.0, the security is riskier than average. If beta < 1.0, the security is less risky than
average. Most stocks have betas in the range of 0.5 to 1.5.
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Can the beta of a security be negative?
Yes, if the correlation between Stock i and the market is negative (i.e., ρi,m < 0).
If the correlation is negative, the regression line would slope downward, and the beta would be negative.
However, a negative beta is highly unlikely.
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Calculating betas
Well-diversified investors are primarily concerned with how a stock is expected to move relative to the market in the future.
Without a crystal ball to predict the future, analysts are forced to rely on historical data. A typical approach to estimate beta is to run a regression of the security’s past returns against the past returns of the market.
The slope of the regression line is defined as the beta coefficient for the security.
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Illustrating the calculation of beta
.
.
.ri
_
rM
_-5 0 5 10 15 20
20
15
10
5
-5
-10
Regression line:
ri = -2.59 + 1.44 rM^ ^
Year rM ri
1 15% 18%
2 -5 -10
3 12 16
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Beta coefficients for HT, Coll, and T-Bills
ri
_
kM
_
-20 0 20 40
40
20
-20
HT: b = 1.30
T-bills: b = 0
Coll: b = -0.87
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Comparing expected returns and beta coefficients
Security Expected Return Beta HT 12.4% 1.32Market 10.5 1.00USR 9.8 0.88T-Bills 5.5 0.00Coll. 1.0 -0.87
Riskier securities have higher returns, so the rank order is OK.
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The Security Market Line (SML):Calculating required rates of return
SML: ri = rRF + (rM – rRF) bi
ri = rRF + (RPM) bi
Assume the yield curve is flat and that rRF
= 5.5% and RPM = 5.0%.
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What is the market risk premium?
Additional return over the risk-free rate needed to compensate investors for assuming an average amount of risk.
Its size depends on the perceived risk of the stock market and investors’ degree of risk aversion.
Varies from year to year, but most estimates suggest that it ranges between 4% and 8% per year.
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Calculating required rates of return
rHT = 5.5% + (5.0%)(1.32)
= 5.5% + 6.6% = 12.10% rM = 5.5% + (5.0%)(1.00) = 10.50%
rUSR = 5.5% + (5.0%)(0.88) = 9.90%
rT-bill = 5.5% + (5.0%)(0.00) = 5.50%
rColl = 5.5% + (5.0%)(-0.87) = 1.15%
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Expected vs. Required returns
r) r( Overvalued 1.2 1.0 Coll.
r) r( uedFairly val 5.5 5.5 bills-T
r) r( Overvalued 9.9 9.8 USR
r) r( uedFairly val 10.5 10.5 Market
r) r( dUndervalue 12.1% 12.4% HT
r r
^
^
^
^
^
^
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Illustrating the Security Market Line
..Coll.
.HT
T-bills
.USR
SML
rM = 10.5
rRF = 5.5
-1 0 1 2
.
SML: ri = 5.5% + (5.0%) bi
ri (%)
Risk, bi
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An example:Equally-weighted two-stock portfolio
Create a portfolio with 50% invested in HT and 50% invested in Collections.
The beta of a portfolio is the weighted average of each of the stock’s betas.
bP = wHT bHT + wColl bColl
bP = 0.5 (1.32) + 0.5 (-0.87)
bP = 0.225
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Calculating portfolio required returns
The required return of a portfolio is the weighted average of each of the stock’s required returns.
rP = wHT rHT + wColl rColl
rP = 0.5 (12.10%) + 0.5 (1.15%)
rP = 6.63% Or, using the portfolio’s beta, CAPM can be used to
solve for expected return.
rP = rRF + (RPM) bP
rP = 5.5% + (5.0%) (0.225)
rP = 6.63%
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Factors that change the SML
What if investors raise inflation expectations by 3%, what would happen to the SML?
SML1
ri (%)SML2
0 0.5 1.0 1.5
13.510.5
8.5 5.5
D I = 3%
Risk, bi
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Factors that change the SML
What if investors’ risk aversion increased, causing the market risk premium to increase by 3%, what would happen to the SML?
SML1
ri (%) SML2
0 0.5 1.0 1.5
13.510.5
5.5
D RPM = 3%
Risk, bi
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Verifying the CAPM empirically
The CAPM has not been verified completely.
Statistical tests have problems that make verification almost impossible.
Some argue that there are additional risk factors, other than the market risk premium, that must be considered.
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More thoughts on the CAPM
Investors seem to be concerned with both market risk and total risk. Therefore, the SML may not produce a correct estimate of ri.
ri = rRF + (rM – rRF) bi + ???
CAPM/SML concepts are based upon expectations, but betas are calculated using historical data. A company’s historical data may not reflect investors’ expectations about future riskiness.
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