Mission Analysis BriefMPAT TE-5

CTF Khokh Chono

05 August 2003

Purpose

The purpose is to brief the Commander on the results of the staff’s mission analysis, propose a restated mission and Commander’s intent.

Obtain Commander’s guidance for COA development.

Agenda• CTF Area of Operations (AO)• Threat Situation• Facts / Assumptions / Limitations• Strategic/Operational Centers of Gravity• Tasks (Specified, Implied, Essential)• Force Structure Analysis• Risk Assessment• End states (Operational/Strategic)• Proposed CCTF Restated Mission and Intent Statements• Proposed CCIR• CCTF Feedback / Guidance

CTF OPERATIONAL AREA

•Describe CTF Operational area and insert images as appropriate.

AYLANDAYLAND

BELANDBELAND

MONGOLIAMONGOLIA

CHINACHINA

RUSSIARUSSIA

BEIJINGBEIJING

ULAANBAATARULAANBAATARCHOYBALSANCHOYBALSAN

NOVOSIBIRSKNOVOSIBIRSK

BUFFERBUFFERZONEZONE

BARUUN URTBARUUN URT

CTF AREA OF OPERATIONS

Mongolia

Beland

Ayland

• Area: 195,311 sq. km (75,410 sq. mi)• Terrain: mountainous (plateau in eastern portion) • Climate: extreme cold winters (-30 C). Short, warm

summers• Population: 726,000• Capital and major city: Choybalsan (pop. 125K)• Economic mainstay: agriculture, livestock breeding, mining

(copper, molybdenum)• Power: coal• Government: parliamentary democracy• Country formed in 1946, out of post WWII agreements

Republic of Ayland

• Area: 214,322 sq. km (82,750 sq. mi)• Terrain: desert steppe • Climate: extreme cold winters (-30 C). Short, warm

summers• Population: 831,000• Capital and major city: Barun-Urt (pop. 147K)• Economic mainstay: agriculture, livestock breeding, mining• Power: coal• Government: parliamentary democracy• Country formed in 1946, out of post WWII agreements

Republic of Beland

THREAT SITUATION

Conventional• Ayland and Beland ground forces continue to exchange fire,

citing “provocations” by the other side.• Air and ground forces from both sides aggressively patrol oil

reserve area - numerous clashes.

Terrorist• Terrorist activities continue in disputed area. Terrorist cells

operating out of Dislocated Civilian camps.• Beland blames “rogue” elements for the continued terrorist

activities.

Environmental• Thousands remain homeless and unprepared for harsh winter.• Multiple diseases present in DC camps.• Due to extreme summer drought, there is very high probability of

a “Dzud” starting in November

C2 Estimate

Ayland Forces. – Ayland forces around the disputed area are garrisoned

north of Tamnsagbulag outside of the disputed area, but still within the 30 Km Weapons Exclusion Zone.

– Ayland forces conduct daily patrols throughout their side of the buffer zone

– Total combat effectiveness estimated at 70% pre-conflict strength (from 10,000 to 7,000).

– Losses are primarily in infantry units– Air assets at 80 %. Losses are due to operational reasons

rather than combat.– Ayland forces stationed in western area of country are near

100% combat effective.

C2 Estimate

Beland Forces.

– Beland forces around the disputed area are garrisoned in Halha Horoo in the vicinity of Camp Urt, outside of the buffer area.

– Beland forces conduct daily patrols throughout their side of the buffer zone

– Total combat effectiveness estimated at 85% pre-conflict strength (from 20,000 to 17,000).

– Losses are primarily in infantry units– Air assets at 80 %. Losses are due to operational

reasons rather than combat.– Beland has suffered minor equipment losses– Beland forces stationed in western area of country are

near 100% combat effective

C2 Estimate

Terrorists.– TPFDL activity reported in Camp Asar in

Ayland, and Camps Dalai, Urt and Tuul in Beland

– TIP/TPFDL Leaders:• Milkitary Commander – Trebor Relsneh• Political officer – Norahs Elahcm• LNO to TIP – Etep Ecilefed

– Terrorist cells are most likely supported by black market arms suppliers and unknown elements of Beland forces

C2 Estimate

Local Population. – Both Ayland and Beland population suffer low

morale based on environmental conditions, infrastructure damage, terrorist activity, banditry, medical conditions, and a lack of basic needs.

– Population of Tamsagbulag is 60% ethnic Aylander, 40% ethnic Belander.

– Ethnic Belanders in Tamsagbulag resent the arbitrary nature of the new border and Ayland rule

HIGHER’S MISSION

GENERAL STAFF ARMED FORCES MONGOLIA (GSAFM) ASSUMES LEAD NATION RESPONSIBILITIES IN ESTABLISHING A COALITION TASK FORCE FOR THE PURPOSE OF CONDUCTING PEACE OPERATIONS IN THE DESIGNATED AREA OF OPERATIONS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ULAANBAATAR AGREEMENT AND UNSC RESOLUTION 1527 IN ORDER TO RESTORE PEACE AND SECURITY IN THE REGION.

Commander’s Intent(1) PURPOSE. ESTABLISH PEACE AND SECURITY IN AO TO

ENABLE THE DELIVERY OF HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE BY UN, IO, AND NGO COMMUNITY.

(2) METHOD. DIRECT, WHEN APPROPRIATE, THE COMMANDER CTF KHOKH CHONO TO CONDUCT PEACE KEEPING OPERATIONS IN ORDER TO SET THE CONDITIONS THAT SUPPORT THE RESTORATION OF PEACE AND STABILITY IN AYLAND AND BELAND. MAINTAIN SEPARATION OF FORCES, ESTABLISH A BUFFER ZONE ON THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, COMBAT TERRORISM AND ASSIST UN HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE OPERATIONS TO SUPPORT RAPID RESTORATION OF LAW AND ORDER AND HELP SET CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT BETWEEN AYLAND AND BELAND. YOU ARE AUTHORIZED TO USE ALL NECESSARY MEANS TO ACCOMPLISH YOUR MISSION.

(3) ENDSTATE. CTF KHOKH CHONO RESTORES SECURE AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT, ALLEVIATES IMMEDIATE DISASTER RELATED HEALTH ISSUES, SUBSTANTIALLY RESTORES INFRASTRUCTURE CRITICAL TO HA EFFORTS, BORDER REGIME AND BUFFER ZONE ARE OPERATIONAL, EFFECTIVE CT MEASURES ARE IN PLACE, CTF TASKS EFFECTIVELY TRANSITIONED TO AYLAND AND BELAND AUTHORITIES OR A FOLLOW-ON UN PKF. CTF REDEPLOYED.

FORCES AVAILABLEFOR PLANNING

Mongolia Gnd Forces HQ 1

  MR Regiment 7

  Special Bns 2

  Engr Regiment 1

  Comm Rgmt 1

  Chemical Rgmt 1

  Logistics Rgmt 1

  Gnd Trans Rgmt 1

  Field Hospital 5

  Fighter Wing 1

  Helo Sqdn 1

  Airlift Wing 1

FORCES AVAILABLEFOR PLANNING

Australia Inf Bn 1 Canada Logistics Unit 1

Engr Sqn 1 Inf Bn 1

Med Tm 1 C-130 4

ROWPU 1

Bangladesh MP Co 1 Brunei Provost Co 1

Med Tm 1

ROWPU

France Surgical Tm 1 Fiji Engr Co 1

C-130 3

FORCES AVAILABLEFOR PLANNING

Indonesia Inf Bn 1 Mauritius Eng Plt 1

Med Tm 1

C-130 1 Nepal Inf Bn 1

Japan Engr Tm 1

Surg Tm 1 New Zealand MP Co 1

ROWPU 1

C-130 2 Philippines Med Tm 1

Korea Inf Bn 1 Russia MR Regiment 1

Engr Co 1

C-130 2 Singapore Inf Co 1

Madagascar Civil Police Unit 1 Med Tm 1

C-130 1

Helo 4

FORCES AVAILABLEFOR PLANNING

Sri Lanka Engr Co 1 Tonga Inf Co 1

UK C-130 2

Thailand Inf Bn 1 C-17 2

SF Det 1 Helo 4

FORCES AVAILABLEFOR PLANNING

US USMC MEU 1 C4I Comms Pkge 1

Bn Landing Tm 1 C-130 4

Helo Sqd 1 C-135 5

Spt Gp 1 C5 2

Flt Surg Tm 1 C-17 2

COMPHIBRON 1 CA Bde (HHC) 1

LPD 1 CA Bn 1

LSD 2 PSYOP TF 1

USMC Comms Co 1 SF TF 1

FORCES AVAILABLEFOR PLANNING

US US Army Bde ( - ) 1 US Army Avn Bn ( - ) 1

HQ ( - ) 1 Medivac Plt 1

Inf Bn 1 Heavy Lift Co 1

Spt Bn ( - ) 1

FACTS

• Majority of Forces available for 6 months • Over-flight rights granted for Russia and China • Both parties have agreed to a UN cease-fire and buffer-

zone• UN Mandate and UB Agreement in place

• Terrorists continue hostile action in the disputed area and in some of the Dislocated Civilian (DC) camps

• Infrastructure damage– Railroads, roads, power, landmines, water and mines,

hospitals• TCC nations responsible for 5 days of sustainment

FACTS

• Rogue elements not abiding to agreements• Lead Nation is Mongolia• Epidemics in several DC camps• 14 total DC camps (10 in Ayland and 4 in Beland) -

125,000 (34,000 refugees)• Humanitarian Coordinator “leading” humanitarian effort

from the Humanitarian Operations Center (HOC) including setting relief priorities

• Donor pallets: 3,300 pallets (C-130)

• Epidemics (pulmonary and bronchial infections, Hep A and B, trachoma, SARS, and brucellosis) in several DC camps

• Bubonic plague transmitted via marmots in AUG-OCT• Preparations for harsh winters in DC camps is inadequate • USMC/USN assets available thru C+30• PACOM Contingency Communications Package (CCP) is

available for duration of CTF mission• Rapid deployment of CTF forces NLT 15 1200 NOV 2003• Operational Control/Tactical Control (OPCON/TACON) of

forces is in accordance with MOUs between participating nations

FACTS

ASSUMPTIONS

• Due to extreme summer draught, there is very high probability of a “Dzud” starting in October

• Terrorists (TPFDL) will attempt to disrupt MNF & UN / IO / NGO efforts

• Ayland and Beland continue to abide by Agreement• Beland and Ayland will provide law & order in Non-

occupied zone (less camps)• Primary APOD can support air operations• Surface to air threat• TPFDL is well armed and organized, and receives support

from significant elements of the population within the disputed area

ASSUMPTIONS

• Ayland/Beland Support as Host Nation extremely limited • Permissions for overland transit granted by Russia/China• IO/NGO will distribute HA to DC camps• Strategic lift available and may move IO/NGO HA material• APODs/SPODs/SLOC will remain open

– SPOD/APOD: Vlad (Rus)/ULN (Mon), Choybalsan (Ay), Sainshand NE (Be)

• APODs will not have sufficient POL and de-icing equipment• Certified Airlift/Airdrop will be required and possible

LIMITATIONS

• Constraints: required actions (must do)• Must abide by mandate, Intl Law & ROE • Deploy by 15 Nov• Coalition interoperability (Incl Comms & Intel)• Establish a BZ with dimensions IAW the UB

Agreement• Prepare for extreme cold weather operations

• Restraints: prohibited actions (must not do)• Use U.S. Navy & Marine forces for a period greater than

30 days

• Threat COGs / DPs:• Strategic

• Perceived legitimacy of TPFDL by supporters of TIP & by supporters outside the AO

• Operational• Command and control network and infrastructure

• Tactical• Local recruitment & support in DC Camps for TPFDL• Rogue elements of Ayland & Beland

• Decisive Points• Access to DC camps• Base of Operations• Capability to spread the TPFDL message

CENTERS OF GRAVITYAND DECISIVE POINTS

• Friendly COGs / DPs:• Strategic

• Coalition legitimacy & MNF political will• Public support for return of peace & stability

• Operational• Coalition cohesiveness & effectiveness

• Tactical• Local/Regional support for MNF• Ability to conduct MNF operations under Dzud conditions

• Decisive Points• C2 systems• Lines of Communication (Incl Support lines)• Ability to enforce the BZ

CENTERS OF GRAVITYAND DECISIVE POINTS

SPECIFIED TASKS • Deploy forces rapidly into the AO, quickly establishing command,

control and communications capabilities to facilitate timely arrival of MNF forces and logistical support.

• Establish strong coordination links with SRSG Mr. Bataar Dorj.

• Secure the borders and maintain buffer zone.

• Maintain separation of Ayland and Beland armed forces.

• Create conditions in Ayland to support restoration of law and order. – Be prepared to temporarily assure execution of security functions

(includes detaining, transporting and turning over of lawbreakers to proper authorities).

• Help develop and assist with the CT efforts– Once Ayland authorities fully assume active role, continue to support

CT efforts by providing information.

SPECIFIED TASKS

• In conjunction with governments of Ayland & Beland, develop a CT plan to eliminate the terrorist threat in Ayland & Beland, in particular in the disputed area & DC camps

• Facilitate HA/DR operations.

• Plan for extreme cold weather operations and effect on CTF forces. Also plan for effects this weather will have on Dislocated Civilians.

• Develop and implement Information Operations campaign in support of CTF under the UN mandate.

• Execute mission handoff to appropriate authorities.

• Redeploy forces.

IMPLIED TASKS

• Establish and secure APOD• BPT provide support to civilian agencies• Conduct Foreign Internal Defense (FID) with

Ayland & Beland CT forces

ESSENTIAL TASKS

– Secure the borders and maintain buffer zone– Facilitate HA/DR operations– Execute mission handoff to appropriate

authorities

INITIAL FORCESTRUCTURE ANALYSIS

• Engineers• Extreme cold weather capable aircraft• SOF air assets (insertion/extraction/logistic support)• CT capable SOF force (capable of recovery operations)• Vehicles

– Tracked vehicles/chained tire vehicles, snow removal equipment

– General transportation • Tactical PSYOP forces • Intelligence assets:

– UAV– Linguists, translators, and interpreters

RISK ASSESSMENT

• Mission Accomplishment Risks / Mitigation:• HA / DR efforts inadequate -

• Provide secure environment; respond to RFAs• Mission essential failures due to Extreme Cold Weather

• Identify mission essential equipment; prioritize winterization preparations; develop backup / recovery plans

• Preposition supplies• Disease

• Preventative & Operational Medical measures• Terrorist

• CT operations• High force-protection procedures• IO Campaign

• Mines -• Awareness training; de-mining operations

END STATE

• Strategic End State conditions• Peace & security established in Ayland & Beland

• Operational (military) End State conditions• Secure & stable environment• Alleviate immediate disaster related health

issues• Substantially restore infrastructure critical to HA

efforts• Border regime & BZ are operational & effective• Effective CT measures in place• Transition tasks to Ayland, Beland &/or PKF

PROPOSED CTF RESTATED MISSION

No later than 15 November, CTF KHOKH CHONO will secure the borders and maintain buffer zone, facilitate HA/DR operations in order to set the conditions to facilitate peace & security in Ayeland & Beland.

On order, execute mission handoff to appropriate authorities

• Purpose:

• Set the conditions to facilitate peace & security in Ayland & Beland

• Method:

• Secure the borders and maintain buffer zone

• Facilitate HA/DR operations

•End state:

• Secure a stable environment, alleviate immediate human suffering, mitigate the effects of the Dzud, substantially restore infrastructure critical to HA efforts, BZ is operational & effective, effective CT measure in place, MNF transitions to appropriate authorities & MNF redeployed

PROPOSED COMMANDER’SINTENT

COMMAND & CONTROL

PROPOSED INITIAL CCIRs• PIR

– Accurate predictions of Dzud conditions or extreme weather in AO– Locations, intentions & capabilities of TPFDL– Non-compliance by parties to UB Agreement

• FFIR– Accurate assessment of HA/DR requirements– Operational capabilities of all MNF units– Status of LLOCs into/out of AO– UN/NGO/IO capabilities to support HA/DR

• EEFI– Counter-terrorism capabilities and disposition– MNF scheme of maneuver & timing– Communication networks– QRF disposition

COMMANDER’S GUIDANCE

CPG-1 Guidance

• Under a CTF HQ:– Main Effort: Security & HA/DR in zone– Establish TF-A (in Ayland) & TF-B (in Beland)

• Examine organizing subordinate TF components by either function or mission; recommend procedures for coordination of air assets

– Supporting Effort: Establish TF-CT (MAF)• Mission: CT in AO

CTF

TF-A TF-B TF-CT

TF (Msn or Function) TF (Msn or Function)

CPG-2 Guidance

• Under a CTF HQ:– Organize CTF components by service (i.e.,

CARFOR, CAFFOR, CMARFOR, etc.)– Main effort: BZ maintenance, CT campaign &

security– Supporting effort: HA / DR, CMO

CTF

CARFOR CAFFOR CMARFOR CSOTF CCMOTF CPOTF

CPG-3 Guidance• CTF is established as a Coalition Civil Military Operations Task

Force (CCMOTF)– Main effort: Civil-military Operations– Supporting effort: security– Organization: IAW MNF SOP, Chapter C-7, Figure C-7-A-1, CCMOTF

Organizational Model

Potential CCMO TFUnits

CCTF / CDR CCMOTF

Deputy CDR CCMOTF Senior Enlisted Adv isor

Personal Staff Chief of Staff

Surgeon

Religious Adv isor

Public Affairs

Inspector General

Legal Officer

Funds Officer

Military Police

C1

C2

C3

C4

C5

C6

CMOC

Non Military Units

Engineer

Medical

Communications

Av iation

Military Police

Supply and Serv ice

Transportation

Maintenance

Special Ops Forces

• Under a CTF HQ:• AO divided into sectors (Main & Supporting Efforts determined by

Sector Commanders)• Organize CTF components by sector

• CTF Component CDRs are lead force in a sector• Several nations may be assigned to a sector• Nations are assigned responsibility for all missions (except CT) in sector

• MAF responsible for CT campaign

CPG-4 Guidance

CTF

Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3

Country A

TF-CT

Country B

Country C

Country D

Country E

Country F

Country X

Country Y

Country z

• The importance of adequate planning & preparations for extreme cold weather conditions cannot be over-stressed.

• All COAs must focus on the ability to operate effectively in extreme cold weather conditions at all levels of operations. Failure to do so, will result in unfeasible COAs & risk mission failure.

Commander’s Guidance