minnesota schools and demographic change tom gillaspy, state demographer mn dept of administration...
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Minnesota Schools And Demographic Change
Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer
Mn Dept of Administration
January 2008
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Three Demographic Mega Trends
Aging
Suburbanization
Increased diversity
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The Next 15 Years Will See Changes In Growth In Key Age Groups
2.7%
1.5%
1.5%
1.3%
0.6%
1.3%
4.0%
0.5%
-0.5%
0.7%
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Long-Term Care (85+)
Retirement (60-64)
Prime Working Age (16-64)
Higher Education (18-24)
E-12 Education (5-17)
Average Annual Growth Rate
1990-2005 2005-2020
State Demographer projections revised 2007
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Minnesota Will See a 30 Percent Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 Beginning 2008
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
7/05 to7/06
7/06 to7/07
7/07 to7/08
7/08 to7/09
7/09 to7/10
7/10 to7/11
7/11 to7/12
Year Turning Age 62
Wo
rke
d W
ith
in P
as
t 5
ye
ars
2005 ACS
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Competition For The Future Workforce Will Increase
6.8%
4.5%
-1.6%-2.2%
13.0%
-1.2%
-3.5% -3.0%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
18-2
4 US
Mn
Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007
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Total Minnesota High School Graduates Will Peak In 2008-09
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
1990
-199
1
1991
-199
2
1992
-199
3
1993
-199
4
1994
-199
5
1995
-199
6
1996
-199
7
1997
-199
8
1998
-199
9
1999
-200
0
2000
-200
1
2001
-200
2
2002
-200
3
2003
-200
4
2004
-200
5
2005
-200
6
2006
-200
7
2007
-200
8
2008
-200
9
2009
-201
0
2010
-201
1
2011
-201
2
2012
-201
3
2013
-201
4
2014
-201
5
History Forecast
State Demographer projection
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Current Enrollment Is About 20% Larger In Grades 9-12 Than In Grades 1-4
40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000
KG123456789
101112
Grade
2006-07 Enrollment
Mn Dept of Education enrollment data
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The Boom Generation Starts Turning 65 in 2011
65+ Passes School Age Around 2020Budget Priorities May Change
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
18-24
65+
5-17
Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007
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Population Change
Loss
Gain Under 1,000
Gain 5,000 to 1,000
Gain More Than 5,000
Population Change 2000-04Census Bureau Estimate
The Metro Donut Is Growing Rapidly While Many Rural Areas See Loss
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Upper Midwest Becoming More Diverse But Still Less Than The Nation
4%
6%
6%
9%
9%
24%
9%
14%
9%
13%
14%
33%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Iowa
Minnesota
North Dakota
South Dakota
Wisconsin
United States
Percent Population of Color
2005
1990
Note: Population except white alone, not Hispanic, 2005 Census Bureau estimate
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Students Of Color Are Increasing While White Students Are Declining
4585,923
19,533 19,515
-59,202
-13,773
-70,000
-60,000
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Am Indian Asian Hispanic Black White Total
Ch
an
ge
En
roll
me
nt
20
00
-01
to
20
06
-07
Mn Dept of Education data
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Twin Cities Metro See Large Difference In Trends Between Central Cities And Rest
-687
-5,517
2,402
-5,255-7,201
-16,258
386
10,438 11,128
20,413
-26,499
15,866
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Am Indian Asian Hispanic Black White Total
Ch
an
ge
En
roll
me
nt
20
00
-01
to
20
06
-07
Mpls St Paul
Rest of Metro
Mn Dept of Education data
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Minnesota’s Children Are More Diverse Than Older People
20%
16%17%
12%
8%6%
5%3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Under 1
0
10 to
19
20 to
29
30 to
39
40 to
49
50 to
59
60 to
69
70+
Age Group
Pe
rce
nt
Min
ori
ty
2000 Census
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Students Speaking Non-English Language At Home: Much Of The Growth In ESL Enrollment Is Directly Related To Growth In
Local Employment
27.6%30.5%30.6%
31.6%32.8%
36.6%37.3%37.5%
43.4%18.7%
11.0%9.8%
3.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Westbrook-Walnut GroveSleepy Eye
MinneapolisColumbia Heights
Pelican RapidsBrooklyn Center
RichfieldWorthington
St. PaulNational 03State 06-07State 04-05State 93-94
Percent of Students in 2006-07
Source: Mn Dept of Education data, Districts of more than 100 enrollment.
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Education Is The Key To Productivity
Minnesota High School Graduation Ratio
57%
85%
60% 62%
89%85%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AmericanIndian
Asian Hispanic Black White Total
2 Y
r A
ve R
ate
2004-05 through 2005-06 graduates. Based on 10th grade enrollment three years earlier.