minneapolis-st. paul apartment market … states...uptown, downtown minneapolis and the north loop....

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Average Monthly Rent Vacancy

Source: MPF Research

MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL

www.colliers.com/msp

OVERVIEWLooking back at 2014, the Twin Cities apartment landscape wrapped up a historically strong year on all fronts, from new construction to sale activity to operations. With properties in all classes benefitting from low vacancy, and new construction experiencing solid absorption, investor demand greatly outstripped available investment property. This created an environment of aggressive bidding for both on- and off-market opportunities.

NEW CONSTRUCTIONDespite an influx of new deliveries in 2013 and 2014, the overall vacancy rate for the metro area has hovered at or below 3.0 percent. Over 4,000 units will be delivered by year-end, with another 5,000 - 6,000 expected to deliver in 2015. Our market’s trailing five-year average is just 2,000 units annually. So while new deliveries are in part making up for below-average deliveries coming out of the economic downturn, it would appear that we will hit demand barriers in the near future.

But for the time being, new project pre-leasing and stabilization projections are continually reported to exceed owner and lender expectations on the majority of new deliveries. With that, new build estimates appear to be sagging for future years as many developers and lenders cautiously await operational results from the new deliveries this year and next.

SPRING 2015 | APARTMENT

APARTMENT MARKET REPORT

MARKET INDICATORS

SPRING 2015

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MONTHLY EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

Robust 2014: Vacancy Stays Low While Construction and Sales Activity at Historic Highs

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL

MARKET REPORT | SPRING 2015 | APARTMENT | MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL

NEW CONSTRUCTION (CON’T.)We’ve seen this story play out in certain submarkets, such as the University of Minnesota student housing market. There, an influx of new projects was met with eager rental demand initially, but the latest round of deliveries opened to softer pre-leasing levels. Many of the newer assets are feeling the charge of supply this year, which has tempered expectations for the 2015 leasing season. With another 600 units scheduled to open in 2015, this market could be a bellweather for oversupply in the greater metro area.

Similarly, the Uptown submarket is experiencing a bump in vacancy with the glut of new projects that were delivered in 2013 and 2014. Vacancy rates for Class A in the 7-10 percent range will likely be the norm for 2015, and possibly 2016, as the influx of units takes time to absorb. This scenario may very well play out in the North Loop and Northeast submarkets in 2016. Nevertheless, the mid and long-term outlooks for absorption are rosy according to many analysts, lenders and developers as the Twin Cities market is typically cautious and quick to pull back once overbuilding concerns are voiced loudly enough.

OPERATIONSRent growth for the year stands at 2.3 percent, surprising many in the industry considering the number of new deliveries. Yet for Class B and C properties, particularly those in the suburbs, rent levels are typically low enough to escape any type of competition from new projects. Coupled with the historically conservative approach taken to rent increases in the local market, it is understandable that a strong economy and good rental market would allow for strong rent growth across the board.

With many operators favoring occupancy over rent growth, the gulf between new deliveries and aged B+ product continues to widen. This will likely abate in 2015 and 2016, assuming that new deliveries experience higher vacancy down the road and are forced to offer concessions on a market-wide level while Class B properties continue to drive rent growth based on extremely low vacancy rates.

Though there is a growing industry sentiment that we are entering a period of higher vacancies and greater concessions for Class A properties, this is likely to be a temporary market condition. Most of the areas saturated with new projects are also those experiencing high population growth and benefitting from demographic trends, namely Uptown, downtown Minneapolis and the North Loop.

TRANSACTION ACTIVITYSale activity for 2014 was very strong for all classes, approaching a total trade volume of $1 billion. Pre-sale activity, particularly in downtown Minneapolis, benefitted from record trade levels, urging developers who otherwise might not consider a pre-sale to test the market. The Vue sold to a relatively new market entrant, Weidner Apartment Homes, earlier this year for nearly $260,000 per unit. That set off a slew of pre-sale activity, culminating (to date) in the sale of Junction Flats to Greystar for $270,000 per unit. While the Vue was stabilized at closing, Junction Flats was not, suggesting that the sales of 222 Hennepin and the Nic on Fifth will report even higher per unit prices.

While Class A sales made most of the news, Class B and C properties were equally sought-after. Two large portfolios of brownstones and Class B and C suburban properties changed hands from long-held local families to a mix of local investors and out of town buyers. The brownstones fetched roughly $110,000 per unit, following pricing trends for other smaller, well-located buildings being snapped up for value-add plays.

Large suburban Class B assets also received strong interest from investors. While many local groups chased these deals, out-of-town investors won most of the bids on larger deals. The tilt in favor of national buyers reinforces the widely-held belief that the Twin Cities has become a secondary market of favor for many investment groups. With capital to deploy in this market and a lack of options, bidding on transactions above $10mm was extremely competitive. The Thomas Lake Pointe Apartments sale in Eagan is a case in point, with a handful of very competitive bids from a mix of local and out of state investors. Pricing exceeded initial expectations from market experts, but was met with little surprise, reinforcing the theme of 2014’s transaction activity: capital for apartments can’t find enough supply.

The VUE apartments in Minneapolis sold for nearly $260,000 per unit



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Source: MPF ResearchSource: MPF Research

APARTMENT CONSTRUCTION: COMPLETIONS BY DATE

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Source: MPF Research

UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTIONOn the private capital side, which is dominated by local players, demand followed suit. Cap rates on transactions below $10mm were typically 25-50 bps higher than larger deals for similarly situated properties. While smaller, well-located properties continued to trade at very low cap rates, investors searching for yield likely found the best opportunities in more suburban, typically garden-style apartments of the 1960s and 70s vintage. Many of these transactions had a light to medium value-add component and a lease-up plan to raise rents to meet competition in the area.

Of note is the changing face of apartment ownership in the Twin Cities. Historically a locally-owned and tightly held investment market, a slow shift is underway that may change the investment landscape for the future. Low unemployment, a stable base of Fortune 500 companies, and relatively stable rent growth provides a good story for national investors seeking yield. While cap rates continue to compress in the coastal markets and investor appetite shows no signs of waning, many groups are looking at markets like the Twin Cities as a favorable alternative to the low yields available elsewhere. As this trend plays out, the face of the local investment landscape will continue to change and will likely drive more long-term owners to consider a sale during the top of the investment cycle.

APARTMENT SALES

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Source: Real Capital Analytics

Edina Gateway, a 36 unit apartment building, sold for over $10 million, or $279,167 per unit

2014 SIGNIFICANT APARTMENT SALE ACTIVITY

BUILDING CITY SIZE (UNITS)

YEAR BUILT BUYER SELLER PRICE PRICE PER

UNITSALE DATE

The Nic on Fifth Minneapolis 253 2014 AEW Capital Mgmt Opus Undisclosed Nov-14

Southview GablesInver Grove Heights

424 1987 White Oak PartnersHenderson Global Investors JV Ml Casa IV LP

$58,000,000 136,792 Dec-14

Junction Flats Minneapolis 182 2014 Greystar RE PartnersTrammell Crow Co JV Carlyle Group

$49,000,000 269,231 Nov-14

Symphony Place Minneapolis 250 1983TIAA-CREF JV Henderson Global Investors

Waterton Associates $48,275,000 193,100 Dec-14

Stratford Wood Minnetonka 297 1975 Oak Residential Partners LLC Waterton Associates $33,125,000 111,532 Nov-14

Madison Atrium Burnsville 348 1986 Equus Capital Partners Henderson Global Investors $33,000,000 94,828 Mar-14

Lemay Lake Saint Paul 282 1986 Mandel Group Pinnacle Realty $32,200,000 114,184 Nov-14

Town Centre at Lexington Saint Paul 248 1987 Weidner Apt HomesLevin Realty Advisors JV Walton Street Capital JV CalPERS

$32,080,000 129,355 Nov-14

VUE Minneapolis 119 2013 Weidner Apt Homes Continental Property Group $30,750,000 258,403 May-14

Georgetown on the River Minneapolis 463 1969 Sterling Real Estate Trust Filister Properties $30,400,000 65,659 Dec-14

The Mist on Minnetonka Spring Park 116 2007 Weidner Apt Homes Prudential RE Investors $27,000,000 232,759 Nov-14

Raven Hill Burnsville 304 1971 Redwood Capital Group Condor Corporation $26,925,000 88,569 May-14

Greens at Edinburgh Minneapolis 198 1992 Weidner Apt HomesLevin Realty Advisors JV Walton Street Capital JV CalPERS

$25,540,000 128,990 Nov-14

Madison Trailway Burnsville 240 1988 Equus Capital Partners Henderson Global Investors $24,800,000 103,333 Mar-14

Plymouth Square at 37th Minneapolis 160 1986 Weidner Apt HomesLevin Realty Advisors JV Walton Street Capital JV CalPERS

$20,510,000 128,188 Nov-14

Grand Pre East Saint Paul 250 1972 Loboda Properties Ted Glasrud Associates $19,450,000 77,800 May-14

Yorktown Continental Minneapolis 263 1972Everwood Company JV Joseph Holmberg JV NDR Real Estate Holdings

Ellen Boroughf $17,190,000 65,361 Nov-14

Brighton Village Saint Paul 240 1971 Sterling Real Estate Trust Filister Properties $16,800,000 70,000 Dec-14

Maplewood Saint Paul 240 1971 Sterling Real Estate Trust Filister Properties $16,000,000 66,667 Dec-14

Gallery Flats (Phase II) Hopkins 90 2013 Sidal Realty Klodt Development $13,827,964 153,644 Oct-14

Lexington Hills Saint Paul 168 1987 Curtis Capital GroupWestfield Real Estate Investment

$13,500,000 80,357 Feb-14

Rosedale Estates North Saint Paul 180 1971 Sterling Real Estate Trust Filister Properties $12,850,000 71,389 Dec-14

Rosedale Estates Saint Paul 180 1969 Sterling Real Estate Trust Filister Properties $12,850,000 71,389 Dec-14

1325 West 27th Street Minneapolis 45 1916 Hornig Companies Maurice Filister $11,974,997 266,111 Dec-14

Westwood Gardens Minneapolis 152 1962 SELA Investments Sidal Realty $11,430,000 75,197 Jan-14

Gallery Flats (Phase I) Hopkins 73 2014 Sidal Realty Paul Klodt $11,352,117 155,508 Apr-14

Edina Gateway Minneapolis 36 2008Joel Shapiro JV 62NDS2 Gateway LLC

Sabal Financial Group $10,050,000 279,167 Aug-14

Grant Street Commons Minneapolis 84 1984 Scott WeberPortland House Limited Partnership

$8,484,000 101,000 Dec-14

Cedar Commons Minneapolis 105 1967 Girard Management Sidal Realty $8,100,000 77,143 Aug-14

Maryland Park Apart-ments

Saint Paul 172 1970 Dominium StuartCo $7,675,000 44,622 Jun-14

Carver Ridge Townhomes Chaska 92 1985 CAPREITWest Suburban Housing Partners LP

$7,650,000 83,152 Sep-14

Valley View Minneapolis 72 1967 Sterling Real Estate Trust Filister Properties $7,500,000 104,167 Dec-14

Robinwood Minneapolis 120 1970 Sterling Real Estate Trust Filister Properties $7,500,000 62,500 Dec-14

Cedar Valley Saint Paul 120 1973 Pine Ridge Capital Cedar Valley Holdings LLLP $7,300,000 60,833 Sep-14

Hillside East Saint Paul 108 1964 Steven Scott Development Sidal Realty $7,275,000 67,361 Jun-14








UNITSALE DATE

Whispering Oaks Burnsville 72 1982 Premier Properties Rebecca Foreman $7,000,000 97,222 Dec-14

125 Oak Grove Minneapolis 64 1912CPM Development JV FIDES Capital Partners

Warner Properties $6,966,345 108,849 Sep-14

Minnetonka Edgewater Spring Park 82 1967 MTK Properties Lois Velasco $6,850,000 83,537 Aug-14

Aspen Hudson 72 1991 Campbell Properties Triad Capital Partners $5,700,000 79,167 Oct-14

The Parkway Minneapolis 71 1919CPM Development JV FIDES Capital Partners


Pinewood Estates Zimmerman 64 2005 Campbell Property Mgmt Briggs Properties Inc $5,168,000 80,750 May-14

Emerson Court Minneapolis 43 1922CPM Development JV FIDES Capital Partners


2610 Fremont Avenue South

Minneapolis 58 1929 Hornig Companies Maurice Filister $5,025,000 86,638 Dec-14

Dupont Court Minneapolis 42 1922CPM Development JV FIDES Capital Partners


Wilson Ridge Saint Paul 102 1970 The Wall Companies Kleinman Realty $4,893,000 47,971 Jun-14

Fountain Terrace Saint Paul 72 1964 Interstate Partners Bethel University Foundation $4,300,000 59,722 Jul-14

Malcolm Shabazz Saint Paul 73 1970Twin Cities Housing Development Corp

BNV Limited Partnership $4,250,000 58,219 Jul-14

941 17th Avenue Southeast Minneapolis 24 1966 Shinji Wakura Rodney Billman $4,007,119 166,963 Sep-14

Lorraine Court Minneapolis 37 1922 Hornig CompaniesGirard Avenue Apartments LLC

$3,950,000 106,757 Dec-14

Cornerstone Estates Saint Paul 64 1969 Brent Molitor Mark Guidinger $3,910,000 61,094 Dec-14

Centennial & Heritage Farmington 68 1971 Scott WeberFarmington Holdings LLC/Farmington Holdings 2 LLC

$3,900,000 57,353 Jun-14

Stanley Court Minneapolis 44 1966 Simek Realty Charles Houts $3,710,000 84,318 Oct-14

Penn Village Minneapolis 30 1961CPM Development JV FIDES Capital Partners


Oak Crest Elk River 54 1987 Oakcrest LLC Scott Weber $3,405,000 63,056 Oct-14

Granada Minneapolis 27 1929CPM Development JV FIDES Capital Partners


Autumn Hills Forest Lake 48 1992 Campbell Property Mgmt Triad Capital Partners $3,200,000 66,667 Oct-14

El Capitan Minneapolis 25 1930CPM Development JV FIDES Capital Partners


2323 16th Avenue South Minneapolis 60 1968 Langolier Family Meeting LLC Twin Place LLC $3,121,000 52,017 Dec-14

615-625 East 18th Street Minneapolis 67 1964 Feddersen Properties Marguz Corporation $3,118,800 46,549 May-14

Yorkshire Minneapolis 28 1927CPM Development JV FIDES Capital Partners


Douglas Drive Terrace Minneapolis 46 1962 Scott WeberMartha & Demetrios Demetriou

$2,750,000 59,783 Apr-14

Charles Avenue Saint Paul 45 1919 Olympus PropertiesCharles Avenue Partners LLC

$2,725,000 60,556 Jun-14

1034 Suburban Avenue Saint Paul 31 1962 Verburgt Holdings LLC WFC Properties LLC $2,720,088 87,745 Jul-14

Fulton Terrace Minneapolis 26 1962CPM Development JV FIDES Capital Partners


Belvedere Minneapolis 26 1921CPM Development JV FIDES Capital Partners


Fairway Flats Anoka 36 1968 Scott Weber Eric Langerman $2,560,000 71,111 Feb-14

Parkwood Apartments Saint Paul 33 1989 Simek Realty Barbara J Curry Trust $2,510,000 76,061 Oct-14

Calhoun Apartments Cambridge 48 1977Birchwood Investment Properties LLC

Linn Slattengren $2,505,000 52,188 Nov-14






UNITSALE DATE

Martinique Minneapolis 25 1921CPM Development JV FIDES Capital Partners


New Hope Place Minneapolis 40 1969 Willow Plaza Properties LLC Duke Partnership II LP $2,320,000 58,000 Dec-14

St. Anthony Place Minneapolis 21 1912 Classic City Apartments Scott Weber $2,300,000 109,524 Aug-14

Southwind Apartments Minneapolis 33 1962 Bret Lillemoe Harold Teasdale $2,240,000 67,879 Dec-14

Pleasant Apartments Minneapolis 40 1960 QT Properties Persaud Properties $2,150,000 53,750 Jul-14

Washburn Apartments Edina 30 1958 Scott Weber Victorsens's Apartments $2,100,000 70,000 Dec-14

130 E George Street St. Paul 45 1967 SELA Investments Ray Getsug $2,020,000 44,889 Jul-14

1524 LaSalle Avenue Minneapolis 26 1916 Maven Real Estate Partners Irving Properties $2,002,000 77,000 Jul-14

Hazelton Apartments Edina 16 1962 Premier PropertiesGreat Lakes Manage-ment

$1,984,000 124,000 Jan-14

Eastview Manor St. Paul 36 1971 Metropolitan Investments LMN Properties $1,860,000 51,667 Apr-14

Ham Lake Apartments Ham Lake 48 1964 Kevin Eggerth Denny Hansen $1,775,000 36,979 Jun-14

Maple CommonsBlooming-ton

24 1965 Relay Properties Court Associates $1,762,312 73,430 Jan-14

Elmwood Apartments Minneapolis 24 1967 Craig Janssen Ken Hedberg $1,755,000 73,125 Apr-14

Colony Park W St. Paul 24 1965 Supportive Living Solutions DRS Investments $1,630,000 67,917 Dec-14

6807 Humboldt AveBrooklyn Center

36 1967 Gary Brummer RLSD Properties $1,620,000 45,000 Jan-14

Hampden Park Apart-ments

St. Paul 22 1964 Meridian Management Judy Janssen $1,537,000 69,864 Apr-14

3410 Girard Ave S Minneapolis 12 1967 Brady Miller Angie Star $1,530,000 127,500 Sep-14

231 Dayton Avenue St. Paul 20 1926 Mint Properties Mary Schlagel $1,525,000 76,250 Jun-14

451 Farview Ave N St. Paul 19 1925 Krishna Holdings Buckbear LLC $1,505,000 79,211 Jun-14

1015 York Avenue St. Paul 34 1961 Attilla Gabriella Gary Brummer $1,505,000 44,265 Jul-14

2401 Hampshire DriveSt Louis Park

16 1964 Nils Snyder Scott Weber $1,420,000 88,750 Dec-14

625 Cleveland Ave S St. Paul 21 1949 Pergola ManagementRidgeway Property Management

$1,350,000 64,286 Oct-14

601 17th Avenue North Hopkins 16 1967 Irving PropertiesLoney Family Partner-ship

$1,216,000 76,000 Dec-14

1168 Grand Avenue St. Paul 14 1922 Skip Thaler Roland Johnson $1,190,000 85,000 Dec-14

Ryan Lake Apartments Minneapolis 24 1963 Widell Family Trust HCP Properties $1,045,000 43,542 Feb-14

3112 Minnehaha Ave Minneapolis 18 1965 Innovative Properties Sela Group $1,017,000 56,500 Feb-14

3016 Grand Ave S Minneapolis 15 1968 Kanata Properties Larry Hempler $1,000,000 66,667 May-14

2715/2723 Hennepin Ave

Minneapolis 9 1909 10th Floor PropertiesKimberly Engle-Lock-hart

$990,000 110,000 Feb-14

36th Avenue Apart-ments

Crystal 16 1960 Pat Glorvick Sela Group $960,000 60,000 Jun-14

New Apartment Construction






UNITSALE DATE

Martinique Minneapolis 25 1921CPM Development JV FIDES Capital Partners


New Hope Place Minneapolis 40 1969 Willow Plaza Properties LLC Duke Partnership II LP $2,320,000 58,000 Dec-14

St. Anthony Place Minneapolis 21 1912 Classic City Apartments Scott Weber $2,300,000 109,524 Aug-14

Southwind Apartments Minneapolis 33 1962 Bret Lillemoe Harold Teasdale $2,240,000 67,879 Dec-14

Pleasant Apartments Minneapolis 40 1960 QT Properties Persaud Properties $2,150,000 53,750 Jul-14

Washburn Apartments Edina 30 1958 Scott Weber Victorsens's Apartments $2,100,000 70,000 Dec-14

130 E George Street St. Paul 45 1967 SELA Investments Ray Getsug $2,020,000 44,889 Jul-14

1524 LaSalle Avenue Minneapolis 26 1916 Maven Real Estate Partners Irving Properties $2,002,000 77,000 Jul-14

Hazelton Apartments Edina 16 1962 Premier PropertiesGreat Lakes Manage-ment

$1,984,000 124,000 Jan-14

Eastview Manor St. Paul 36 1971 Metropolitan Investments LMN Properties $1,860,000 51,667 Apr-14

Ham Lake Apartments Ham Lake 48 1964 Kevin Eggerth Denny Hansen $1,775,000 36,979 Jun-14

Maple CommonsBlooming-ton

24 1965 Relay Properties Court Associates $1,762,312 73,430 Jan-14

Elmwood Apartments Minneapolis 24 1967 Craig Janssen Ken Hedberg $1,755,000 73,125 Apr-14

Colony Park W St. Paul 24 1965 Supportive Living Solutions DRS Investments $1,630,000 67,917 Dec-14

6807 Humboldt AveBrooklyn Center

36 1967 Gary Brummer RLSD Properties $1,620,000 45,000 Jan-14

Hampden Park Apart-ments

St. Paul 22 1964 Meridian Management Judy Janssen $1,537,000 69,864 Apr-14

3410 Girard Ave S Minneapolis 12 1967 Brady Miller Angie Star $1,530,000 127,500 Sep-14

231 Dayton Avenue St. Paul 20 1926 Mint Properties Mary Schlagel $1,525,000 76,250 Jun-14

451 Farview Ave N St. Paul 19 1925 Krishna Holdings Buckbear LLC $1,505,000 79,211 Jun-14

1015 York Avenue St. Paul 34 1961 Attilla Gabriella Gary Brummer $1,505,000 44,265 Jul-14

2401 Hampshire DriveSt Louis Park

16 1964 Nils Snyder Scott Weber $1,420,000 88,750 Dec-14

625 Cleveland Ave S St. Paul 21 1949 Pergola ManagementRidgeway Property Management

$1,350,000 64,286 Oct-14

601 17th Avenue North Hopkins 16 1967 Irving PropertiesLoney Family Partner-ship

$1,216,000 76,000 Dec-14

1168 Grand Avenue St. Paul 14 1922 Skip Thaler Roland Johnson $1,190,000 85,000 Dec-14

Ryan Lake Apartments Minneapolis 24 1963 Widell Family Trust HCP Properties $1,045,000 43,542 Feb-14

3112 Minnehaha Ave Minneapolis 18 1965 Innovative Properties Sela Group $1,017,000 56,500 Feb-14

3016 Grand Ave S Minneapolis 15 1968 Kanata Properties Larry Hempler $1,000,000 66,667 May-14

2715/2723 Hennepin Ave

Minneapolis 9 1909 10th Floor PropertiesKimberly Engle-Lock-hart

$990,000 110,000 Feb-14

36th Avenue Apart-ments

Crystal 16 1960 Pat Glorvick Sela Group $960,000 60,000 Jun-14

Minneapolis-St. Paul 4350 Baker Road, Suite 400 Minnetonka, MN 55343DIRECT 952 897 7700www.colliers.com/msp

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* Square footage includes office, industrial and retail property under management. Residential property is excluded from this total. All statistics are for 2015.

minneapolis-st. paul apartment market … states...uptown, downtown minneapolis and the north loop....

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