ministry of economy and finance - ministero dell economia ...€¦ · revised downwards by 0.1 pp,...

MINISTRY OF ECONOMY AND FINANCE

DEPARTMENT OF GENERAL ACCOUNTS General Inspectorate for Social Expenditure

MID-LONG TERM TRENDS FOR THE PENSION, HEALTH AND LONG TERM CARE SYSTEMS

Summary and conclusions

The projections of the Department of General Accounts

updated to 2016

Report no. 17 – July 2016

This Report has been produced with the collaboration of

Sogei – Forecasting models and statistical analysis

MID LONG TERM TRENDS FOR THE PENSION, HEALTH AND LONG TERM CARE SYSTEMS – 2016 UPDATED

I

INDEX

Preface ................................................................................................................. 1

Summary and conclusions ........................................................................................... 3

Annex: assumptions and projection results – Tables .................................................... 23


II

TABLES

Table A: projection of total public expenditure on pensions, health care, LTC, education and unemployment benefits as a percentage of GDP - EPC-WGA baseline scenario ..................................................................................... 13

Table B: assumptions and projection results - National baseline scenario ........................ 14

Table C: assumptions and projection results – EPC-WGA baseline scenario..................... 15

Table D: replacement rates of the public pension system - National baseline scenario (in%) .................................................................................................. 16

Table E: sensitivity analysis of the demographic hypotheses - Changes in the expenditure/GDP ratio compared with the national baseline scenario (in %) ............................................................................................................... 17

Table F: sensitivity analysis of the macroeconomic hypotheses - Changes in the expenditure/GDP ratio compared with the national baseline scenario (in %) ............................................................................................................... 17

FIGURES

Figure A: public expenditure for pension, health care and LTC - National baseline scenario .............................................................................................. 17

Figure B: public health and LTC expenditure - National baseline scenario........................ 19

Figure C: national baseline scenario and EPC-WGA baseline scenario ............................. 20

Figure D: public expenditure for pension, health care and LTC ....................................... 21


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Preface

This Report illustrates and analyses the projection results on public expenditure for pensions, health care and long term care (LTC) in terms of GDP. These projections have been carried out using the models of the Department of General Accounts (Ragioneria Generale dello Stato - RGS) updated to 2015, on the basis of the forecasting scenarios defined both at national and European levels. The latter have been worked out by the Working Group on Ageing set up at the Economic Policy Committee of the Ecofin Council (EPC-WGA). The EPC-WGA scenario adopted in the current Report incorporates the structural assumptions agreed at European level in view of the 2015 round of projections (2015 – Ageing Report).

Beyond illustrating the results by expenditure item, the Report offers a thorough analysis of the driving forces behind the dynamics foreseen, and a description of the differences which come about due to the updating procedures. These procedures particularly concern the revision of the initial data of the projections, changes to the legal-institutional framework, and the definition of the demographic and macroeconomic assumptions underlying the forecasting scenarios.

The projections illustrated in the Report have been worked out in line with the schedule laid down by the European multilateral surveillance procedure (‘European Semester’), which has been incorporated in Law 39/2011, in order to update accordingly the previous public budget legislation (Law 196/2009). In coherence with the current legislation, public finance planning procedure starts with the presentation of the Economic and Financial Document (Documento di Economia e Finanza – DEF) by 10 April of each year, which reports the ‘Analyses and Trends of Public Finances’ (Analisi e tendenze della finanza pubblica) (Section II). The DEF also incorporates the Update of the Italian Stability Programme (Section I) and the National Reform Programme (Section III). Both documents are to be presented to the European Authorities by 30 April, after being examined by Parliament.

Following this schedule for public finance planning, the first step of the 2016 update of the RGS models was concluded in March, in view of the elaboration of the public finance documents mentioned above. Such documents include some of the results illustrated in the current Report.

In particular, the Update of Italy’s Stability Programme shows, in the chapter dedicated to an evaluation of the mid-long term sustainability of public finances, projections on pensions, health and LTC worked out on the basis of the EPC-WGA baseline scenario, and provides an in-depth analysis of the mid-long term effects brought about by reform interventions passed since 2004. Moreover the section in the DEF ‘Analyses and Trends of Public Finances’ illustrates, in a dedicated box, the mid-long term forecast of the pension system, on the assumptions of the national baseline scenario.

Forecasts are updated taking into consideration the legislation in force in March 2016. The value of the macroeconomic variables relating to the years 2015 and earlier are coherent with the results of national accounting as communicated by Istat (National Institute of Statistics) in March 2016.


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This Report is composed of 6 chapters and comprehensive appendices. Chapter 1 provides a description of the demographic and macroeconomic assumptions underlying the forecasting scenarios. Chapters 2-4 show, by topic, the projection results for the three age-related components of public expenditure that are analysed in the Report. Chapter 5 analyses the sensitivity of projection results to the demographic and macroeconomic parameters. Chapter 6 provides a detailed description of the replacement rates in the public and private pension systems, which have been calculated gross and net of contributions and tax charges. In addition, the chapters have been enhanced with appropriate boxes providing a more in-depth analysis of specific topics related to the subject concerned.

The appendices are three in number. The first (Appendix 1) contains an updated description of main features of the legal framework regulating pension and other social cash benefit expenditure items. An illustration of fiscal treatment of public and private-funded pensions is also provided.

The second (Appendix 2) gathers some statistics which provide additional information on the subjects under consideration. It includes: i) an analysis of the diverse pension expenditure definitions available both at national and European levels, ii) a comparison of social protection expenditure in European Union countries broken down by function, iii) a description of the monitoring and forecasting activity on public expenditure for social cash benefits and health care provisions carried out by the RGS for the preparation of public finance documents, iv) the updating of the results of the survey on social assistance services provided by municipalities, directly or in association, v) the pension calculation formula, and vi) mid-long term projections for public expenditure on pensions, health care, LTC, education, and unemployment benefits worked out for the 2015 Update of the Stability Programme.

The final appendix (Appendix 3) contains the tables of results which include: the mid-long term projections for pension, health and LTC expenditure, the sensitivity analysis of the demographic and macroeconomic assumptions, and the replacement rates of the public and private pension systems calculated for the whole forecasting period.


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Summary and conclusions

This Report contains the mid-long term projections for pension, health and Long Term Care (LTC) expenditure, carried out using the models of the Department of General Accounts (Dipartimento della Ragioneria Generale dello Stato - RGS) updated to 2016.

Compared to the previous Report, no relevant changes has been introduced to the structural components of scenario assumptions. Dealing with both national assumptions and those agreed upon at European level, the parameters underlying the demographic and macroeconomic framework have been kept substantially unchanged, with the exception of all the implications coming about from the usual updating procedures of the initial values and short-term growth estimates.

With particular reference to the demographic component, the initial values of the projection have been realigned to the Istat’s estimates of the resident population on the first of January 2015. Furthermore, the dynamics of life expectancy estimates updated to 2015 have been taken into account.

In the short term, however, both scenarios are fully in line with the macroeconomic assumptions underlying the Economic and Financial Document (Documento di Economia e Finanza – DEF) 2016, according to which the real GDP growth rate in 2016 has been revised downwards by 0.1 pp, compared to the estimate reported in the Update of the DEF 2015. On the basis of the new estimates, the real GDP growth rate averages on 1.2%, over the four year-period 2016-2019, against 1.3% of the previous update.

The projection results shown in this Report were worked out in March 2016 for the preparation of the DEF 2016. Therefore the value of the variables relating to the years 2015 and earlier, on which the projections are based, is coherent with the results of national accounts as communicated by Istat (National Institute of Statistics) in early March.

Projections are consistent with the legislative framework in force at the date of their elaboration. Besides the effects brought about by the measures already incorporated in the forecasts of the previous RGS Report no. 16, they take into account the effects brought about by the normative interventions approved thereafter, with particular reference to Law 208/2015 (Stability Law for 2016).

As for the pension system, the projections take into account the structural effects of Decree Law 65/2015, converted into Law 109/2015, which, in Article 1, lays down the regulation implementing the principles set out in the sentence of Constitutional Court no. 70/2015, as already done in the Updating Note of the 2015 RGS Report. Such effects are accounted for according to the principles set out by the statistical Authorities which foresee that arrears are not recorded in the expenditure for 2015. In fact, arrears are accounted for as capital expenditure instead of current expenditure on social cash benefits, which includes pensions. There has been no further legislative changes with appreciable financial effects, besides the interventions already considered in the previous RGS Report.

The pension system projections also take into account the effects brought about by the revision of the transformation coefficients, in line with the provisions of


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Law 335/1995, as amended by Law 247/2007 and Law 214/2011, as well as the updating of the eligibility requirements to changes in life expectancy as set out by Law 122/2010, fully implemented by subsequent reform interventions (Law 214/2011). In particular, as of 2013 both automatisms apply every three years (and every two years as of 2021), by way of a simplified procedure which falls entirely within the administrative sphere of competence. The revisions have been made according to the evolution of mortality and life expectancy parameters assumed in the reference demographic scenarios.

Concerning health care expenditure, the update of the legislative framework, compared to the previous RGS Report and the related Update, takes into account the effects of the interventions foreseen by Law 208/2015 (Stability Law for 2016). Such interventions foresee, for 2016, a cut in both the Financing Level of the National Health Care Service (Livello del Finanziamento del Servizio Sanitario Nazionale) and the health care expenditure as much as 1,783 million euro; for the subsequent years, a contribution of the health care sector to the overall manoeuvre changed on Regions by the budget law for 2016, which accounts for 3,500 million euro in 2017 and 5,000 million euro as of 2018, as laid down by the agreement between State, Regions and Autonomous Provinces (Intesa Stato-Regioni).

Furthermore, the forecasts are in line with the interventions foreseen by Law 208/2015 (Stability Law for 2016) concerning the discipline of labour contract renewal.

The Report includes specific, in-depth studies concerning the themes treated in each single chapter. In particular: i) the 2015 update of demographic projections (see Box 1.1), ii) the automatic adjustments of the pension system to changes in life expectancy, the financial effects of the pension reform process adopted in Italy over the last decade, the effects to pension expenditure due to the periodic revision of the transformation coefficients and the evolution of pension expenditure in the EU member states (Box 2.1-2.4), iii) the health and long-term care expenditure projections of EU countries carried out within EPC-WGA (Box 3.2 and Box 4.1), iv) health care consumption by age, sex, and typology of provision (Box 3.1) and v) the description of a new methodology for the implementation of death-related costs (Box 3.3).

For completeness of information, a summary table (Table A) with the results of the mid-long term age-related expenditure projections is also given. Such projections were carried out for the preparation of chapter IV of the 2016-update of the Stability Programme, as foreseen by the code of conduct for the analysis of the sustainability of public finances. They are updated to the legislation in force in March 2016 and take into account the methodologies and scenario assumptions agreed at European level, with the required modifications as described for the EPC-WGA baseline scenario. Public age-related expenditure components involved in the projecting exercise include the following: pension, health care, LTC, unemployment benefit, and education. With regard to the first three components, the projection results reported in the Table coincide with those of the EPC-WGA baseline scenario.

As far as the national baseline scenario is concerned, the demographic component incorporates the hypotheses underlying the population projection produced by Istat, with 2011 as the base year, apart from changes brought about by the updating procedures. In particular, the projection has been recalibrated to the population on the first of January 2015 estimated by Istat, which hence becomes the baseline of the projection. Analogously, the 2015 life expectancy update, as communicated by Istat with the 19 February 2016 release, has been taken into account, which shows, for this year, a life


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expectancy reduction of about 3 months compared to that in 2014. Hence, the probabilities of death underlying the national baseline scenario have been correspondingly redetermined. The other demographic parameters have been instead left unchanged.

Such hypotheses envisage i) fertility rate rising slightly from 1.4 in 2010 to 1.6 in 2060, with a broadly linear trend, ii) life expectancy in 2060 of 85.9 years for men and 90.8 years for women, with an increase of 5.8 and 6.1 years respectively as compared to 2015, and iii) a net migration flow passing from a mean value of 264,000 individuals in the period 2015-2020 to 200,000 in 2045, and thereafter decreasing to 180,000 at the end of the forecasting period.

Concerning the structural dynamics of the labour market, changes are minor and mainly due to an update of the data underlying the labour force module, which envisages the interaction between education enrolment rates, educational achievements, and activity rates.

At the end of the forecasting period the unemployment rate converges on 5.5%. At the same date, the activity rate in the age group 15-64 will be at 70.2%, with an increase of around 6.2 percentage points compared to the level of 2015. With reference to the age group 20-69, which better approximates the working-age population in the mid-long run, the activity rate reaches 74.6% in 2060, with an increase of 11.3 percentage points. For the same age group, the employment rate increases by about 14.6 percentage points, settling on 70.6% in 2060.

Productivity growth rates show a rising profile that gradually converge on an average annual level of 1.6% in the period 2040-2050, and then drop slightly to 1.5% in the final decade of the forecasting period. The changes seen in the central and final part of the forecasting period come about endogenously from the application of the production function, which, through the capital deepening component, links the growth rates of productivity to employment dynamics. Differently, the growth rate of total factor productivity is stable at 1%.

On the basis of the demographic and macroeconomic hypotheses illustrated above, the real growth rate of GDP settles, on average, at an annual figure of around 1.5% in the long term, showing an increasing trend over the first decade, a decline in the following twenty years, and a slight recovery in the last part of the forecasting period.

The dynamics of the ratio between pension expenditure and GDP in the national baseline scenario are shown in figure A1.

After an increase in the initial phase, wholly accounted for by the economic recession, from 2015 the ratio between pension expenditure and GDP gradually declines to 14.9% round 2029. In the following years, the ratio rises again until 2044, where it reaches the value of 15.5%. Thereafter, pension expenditure declines rapidly in terms of GDP to 15% in 2050 and 13.7% in 2060.

The initial decline in the pension expenditure to GDP ratio is largely explained by the increase in the eligibility requirements for retirement, and the pro-rata application of the Notional Defined Contribution method (NDC). The subsequent phase of growth seen in the middle of the forecasting period is mainly due to the increase in the ratio of pensions to employees brought about by demographic changes. This is only partly compensated for by the tightening of eligibility requirements. Such an increase exceeds the containing effects on the evolution of pension amounts which come about from the gradual introduction of the NDC method over the entire working lifespan. The rapid decrease in the ratio of pension expenditure to GDP in the final phase of the forecasting period is


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determined by full application of the NDC method, which runs in parallel with the stabilization and the subsequent decline in the ratio between pensions and employees. This last phenomenon arises both from the gradual disappearance of the baby boom generations, and the automatic adjustment of eligibility requirements to changes in life expectancy.

From the illustration of the mid-long term trends of pension expenditure to GDP ratio, it emerges that the process of Italian pension reforms has largely succeeded in counteracting the potential effects on public expenditure brought about by demographic transition over the next decades. In fact, as shown at international level, and in particular by the European Commission on the basis of the projection results carried out by the EPC-WGA (2015-Ageing Report), Italy presents a dynamic of pension expenditure to GDP ratio considerably more contained than that foreseen for most of the countries under consideration. In fact, although the ratio of pension expenditure to GDP in EU countries decreases on average by 0.2% in the period 2013-2060, Italy’s ratio decreases by 1.9%, signaling a limited risk for the sustainability of public finances that comes about from demographic ageing. Such an outcome brought about by pension reforms, contributes to ensuring in the mid-long term the return path of the Italian public debt (significantly higher than the EU average) within the European parameters, as outlined in chapter IV of the 2016-Update of the Stability Programme.

The assessment of the financial sustainability of the public pension system is flanked by an analysis of the distributive effects by scheme, gender and cohort. Concerning the first topic, the results show that the introduction of the NDC method determines, in the long term, a containing effect on the expenditure dynamic which is more accentuated for the self-employed than for employees, because of the lower contribution rate. Contextually, a relevant change in the composition of resources by gender can be seen, with an increase of the total quota attributed to women. This result arises from an increase in the number of female pensions originating from the higher employment rates foreseen in the first part of forecasting period.

The analysis by cohort shows a reduction of the average amount of newly awarded pensions due, above all, to the gradual introduction of the NDC system, though such an effect is significantly contained by the indexation of the eligibility requirements to changes in life expectancy. Moreover it shows the capacity of the mechanism of indexation to prices to compensate for the distributive effect in favour of the older pensions, which have benefited from more favorable calculation rules.

The illustration of the distributive effects of the pension system is completed by a microeconomic analysis of the theoretical replacement rates, which express the ratio between the first annual amount of pension and the last annual salary. The calculations are carried out for the entire forecasting period in line with the demographic and macroeconomic assumptions underlying the adopted forecasting scenarios. Coherently with the expenditure projections, the calculation of replacement rates considers the three-year revision of transformation coefficients (every two-years from 2021), and takes into account, in defining working careers, the periodic update of eligibility requirements for pension entitlements. The methodology agreed at European level and already utilized within the procedure of the Open Method of Coordination on Pensions has been followed. In this context, it was decided that replacement rates were to be calculated gross and net of contributions and tax revenues, as well as considering additional income that may come from the private funded system.


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For the analysis of replacement rates, the ‘base case’ definition assumes a retirement age fully aligned to the minimum requirement for an old age pension, indexed to changes in life expectancy, with the exception of dependent workers under the NDC regime. For the latter, the retirement age has been taken as equal to the minimum age required for early retirement, which is three years lower than that required for an old age pension.

The analysis of gross replacement rates (Table D.1) highlights the fact that the process of elevating the average retirement age exerts a relevant expansive effect on pension levels, thus contributing to improve pension adequacy under the NDC regime. Such an aspect is clear in the base case, where the contribution period is kept constant over time. It is even more marked assuming a contribution period linked to the minimum age requirement foreseen for old age pensions.

The analysis of net replacement rates (Table D.2) permits an assessment of changes in disposable income before and after retirement. In this regard, the results show a strong lessening of the effects on the adequacy of pension caused by the introduction of the NDC calculation, especially after the further increases in eligibility requirements and, in the case of the self-employed, the elevation of the contribution rate. In many cases the containment of disposable income guaranteed to employees by the public pension system does not materialize, or, where it does so, is adequately compensated for by the additional pension amount provided by the private pension system. For the self-employed, the containment effect in most cases remains, due to a lower contribution rate, although to a significantly lesser extent, due to the elevating process of the minimum eligibility requirements.

The projection of the ratio between public health care expenditure and GDP has been carried out on the basis of the methodological indications agreed within the EPC-WGA. The distribution of health care expenditure by typology of provision has been made in accordance with the indications derived from a dedicated survey on health care provisions (modello di rilevazione dei costi dei Livelli di Assistenza) in 2012.

As in the past, the update of the health care expenditure projection envisages a revision of the estimates of the consumption profile by age, sex and typology of provision, which takes into account the most recent data available. In particular, with regard to hospital health care expenditure, hospital discharging records (Schede di Dismissione Ospedaliera - SDO) of 2014 have been utilised. As for specialist and pharmaceutical provisions, estimates are based on data gathered by the electronic health card system (Sistema Tessera Sanitaria) in 2014.

The base assumption concerning health care consumption envisages that the consumption profile by age, sex and typology of provision is to be kept constant throughout the whole forecasting period, whilst standardised per capita consumption (Consumo Pro capite standardizzato – CPS), which expresses the variations in health care consumption that occur while maintaining unchanged the demographic structure, is to evolve in line with GDP per capita. Such a methodological approach is labelled as the ‘pure ageing scenario’, insofar as it makes changes in the ratio of health care expenditure to GDP depend exclusively on alterations in demographic structure.

However, considering the existence of drivers other than purely demographic ones, alternative assumptions on health care consumption have also been analysed which take into account: i) an improvement of health status related to the projected increase in life expectancy, ii) price index differences between health and non-health care products, also arising from diverse technological content, and iii) the driving force of labour compensation underlying health care costs. These different assumptions are first analysed


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individually, and then suitably combined with each other according to the indications agreed within the EPC-WGA.

The combination of alternative assumptions, which is labelled the ‘reference scenario’, envisages: i) the dynamic of health consumption profiles by age calculated through the application of the ‘death-related costs’ methodology to the hospital component of health care expenditure, and the ‘dynamic equilibrium’ methodology (50% of changes in life expectancy) to other health care provisions, ii) the elasticity of CPS to GDP per capita greater than 1, as far as the ‘acute’ component of health care expenditure is concerned, and iii) the linkage of CPS to productivity, as far as the LTC component of health care expenditure is concerned.

The definition of the reference scenario actually implemented within the EPC-WGA and used for the updating of the Stability Programme differs from that illustrated above insofar as it extends the application of the dynamic equilibrium methodology to the hospital component of health care expenditure.

The death-related costs methodology has been applied using a different approach which involves passing the traditional approach based on the constancy of the health care cost differential between survivors and deceased in each year, expressed as a function of age. Otherwise, the new methodology assumes that the aforesaid differential is constant in terms of life expectancy and, therefore, increasing at a given age according to improvement in survival prospects. Such an approach, proposed by the Italian delegation in the EPC-WGA, was adopted for the specific forecasting exercise in view of the 2015-round of EPC-WGA projections.

As a departure from the methodological indications given above, the projection of health care expenditure for the period 2016-2019 has been aligned to the short term forecast reported in the DEF 2016, by applying a coefficient matrix which relates costs to typologies of provision (matrice costi-prestazioni). This latter has been carried out separately for each single expenditure item, on the basis of the current legal framework and the available information from the monitoring of the public health care sector.

The projection of the ratio between public health care expenditure and GDP, based on the pure ageing scenario methodology, shows more or less regular growth from 2019, after an initial decline due to the containing policy measures taken into account in the short term forecasts (Figure A2). In the last decade of the forecasting period the growth rate does drop off slightly, as a result of the exit of the baby boom generation. In the whole forecasting period, the ratio increases by about 1 percentage points, passing from 6.9% in 2015 to 7.9% in 2060.

The projection arising from the reference scenario substantially confirms the dynamics of that based on the pure ageing scenario. This is due to the partial compensation of the containing effects brought about by the assumptions on dynamic profiles of health care consumption, and the expansive effects stemming from the hypotheses on CPS evolution (Figure B1). In this comparison, a slight deviation exists, increasing over time, reaching about 0.1 percentage points at the end of the forecasting period.

Public expenditure for care of people whose dependency is due to old age and disability, better known as public expenditure on LTC, includes three components: i) the health component, ii) the cost of attendance allowances (indennità di accompagnamento), and iii) expenditure on ‘other LTC provisions’. The overall expenditure, which accounts for


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1.9 percentage points of GDP in 2015, refers to all provisions, regardless of the age of recipients.

However, considering that the incidence of dependency is strongly linked to age, and that the part of the expenditure most exposed to ageing is the one directed at the elderly, the calculation of LTC expenditure is sometimes limited to recipients of 65 and over. In this case, such expenditure would be reduced by about one-third.

The health component of LTC expenditure is defined on the basis of the classification criteria provided by the SHA of the OECD. On the basis of these indications, reaffirmed on the occasion of subsequent updates of the EPC-WGA projections, the health care services of LTC constitute a set of provisions complementary to the acute component of health care provision, this excluding any possibility of an intermediate category existing in which to locate those items which cannot be univocally assigned.

The criteria for assigning health care provisions to the aggregate for LTC have been confirmed. They are the same criteria utilized, according to the SHA methodology, for the elaboration of the data provision for the years 2005-2008, transmitted to the international organizations in 2010. However, the 2012-update of the distribution of health care spending according to LA (Level of Assistance) classification, which replaces that of 2007, made it necessary to apply minor adjustments. In particular, the rule of ‘prevalence’ has been applied whenever minor percentages of assignment, for certain typologies of provisions, were no more justified because of the update of the LA database. All this, looking forward to the conclusion of the activity programme of the new Working Group on the SHA, formed in 2013 with the aim to prepare sources, procedures and methods for the production of the Italian statistics on health expenditure according to the SHA methodology. This in order to implement the provisions of Regulation (EC) No. 1338/2008, which provides, among other things, the development of criteria for the assignment of health care provisions to the SHA functions.

The other two components of LTC constitute social expenditure items to be added to the health care component, the forecast of which has been regularly made since 2005. In particular, attendance allowances are cash benefits provided to dependent people without means testing. Differently, ‘other LTC services’ include a heterogeneous group of benefits, largely in kind, mainly provided at a local level by municipalities, directly or in association. These are generally means-tested.

According to the pure ageing scenario, which have already been illustrated when referring to health care expenditure, the projection of public expenditure on LTC as a share of GDP remains substantially stable, in the period 2016-2019. This is essentially due to the current indexation mechanism for attendance allowances. Successively, the hypothesis that such benefits will conform to the nominal dynamics of GDP per capita, along with an accentuation of the ageing process, causes an almost regular growth of the ratio. In the whole forecasting period, the LTC expenditure to GPD ratio passes from 1.9% in 2015 to 3% in 2060 (Figure A3).

As is the case for the health care expenditure projections, an alternative scenario has also been constructed for LTC expenditure. In this case, the reference scenario assumes: i) the partial application of dynamic equilibrium methodology (50% of change in life expectancy), and ii) the linkage of CPS either to productivity or to GDP per capita, depending on whether benefits in kind or in cash are concerned. Compared to the pure ageing scenario, the adoption of the reference scenario produces visible lower dynamics in the LTC expenditure to GDP ratio, with a deviation of about 0.35 percentage points at the end of the forecasting period (Figure B2).


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The projection of total public expenditure on pensions, health care and LTC as a percentage of GDP is reported in figure D1 where, for the last two components, the assumptions of the reference scenario have been adopted. As shown in the graph, overall public expenditure counts the health component for LTC a single time, insofar as it is included both in total health care expenditure and in the total expenditure for LTC.

After the initial increase in the two years 2012-2014, exclusively due to the effects of the economic recession, the ratio between total expenditure and GDP decreases until 2019, when it reaches a level of 22.9%. In the following phase, the ratio grows to reach a maximum level of 24.6% in 2046. In the final ten-year period, the ratio takes on a decreasing trend that leads it to settle at 23.3% in 2060, about 0.5 percentage points less than the initial level in 2015.

The EPC-WGA baseline scenario assumes, in the mid-long term, the new set of demographic and macroeconomic assumptions agreed at the European level in view of the 2015-round of EPC-WGA projections. The main elements of diversity with respect to the national baseline scenario may be seen comparing the values reported in Tables B and C.

As for demographic parameters, the population forecast made by Eurostat, with 2013 as the base year, assumes: i) a fertility rate substantially equivalent to that of Istat, ii) lower life expectancy - by 0.4 years for male and 1.1 years for females - in 2060, and iii) net flows of immigrants significantly higher over the whole forecasting period. However, differences in the demographic parameters tend partly to compensate for each other in the calculation of dependency indicators.

The differences are a bit more relevant for the variables in the macroeconomic scenario. Notwithstanding the contribution of higher migration flows, at the end of the forecasting period, the level of GDP is slightly lower than in the national baseline scenario, showing a difference of 0.7%. This is mainly due to GDP growth which is somewhat more contained over the fifteen-year period 2020-2034, while in the remaining part of the forecasting period it partially recovers due to more favorable productivity dynamics.

The less favourable employment dynamic is largely explained by the structural differences in the employment rates. In fact, the EPC-WGA scenario assumes lower activity rates in the mid-long term, due to a reduction in male activity rates, in the central age bracket, not explained by retirement, and ignores the increasing trend of female activity rates. Furthermore, the unemployment rate converges to a level of about 1.5 percentage points higher compared to the national baseline scenario.

The results of the projections carried out within the ambit of the EPC-WGA are shown in figure C, together with those based on the adoption of the national baseline scenario. Compared with the latter, the EPC-WGA baseline scenario gives a ratio of pension expenditure to GDP substantially aligned up to 2021, and from 2046 on, whilst it is significantly higher in the interim period, with a deviation of about 0.8 percentage points around 2031 (Figure C1). Such differences depend prevalently on the diverse time profile of the dynamics of GDP, which produces immediate effects on the denominator of the ratio and delayed effects on the number and average amount of pensions in the second half of the forecasting period.

Differently, the ratio between health expenditure and GDP, foreseen on the basis of the EPC-WGA baseline scenario, is located at a slightly lower level than the national baseline scenario for the entire forecasting period, with a deviation gradually increasing over time (Figure C2).


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Finally, regarding the expenditure for LTC, figure C3 shows substantial overlapping of the two curves under comparison until 2045 followed by a slight deviation in the last part.

The projections illustrated above depend to a considerable extent on the demographic and macroeconomic framework. For this reason it was thought useful to carry out broad-based sensitivity analyses aimed at measuring the effect on the ratio of expenditure to GDP deriving from alternative hypotheses with regard to the single parameters describing demographic and macroeconomic scenarios. The same methodological approach undertaken in the previous RGS Report has been kept. Sensitivity simulations have been made taking the national baseline scenario as reference. With regard to public expenditure for health and LTC, the reference scenario assumptions have been adopted.

Concerning the hypotheses for the demographic parameters, four simulation exercises have been carried out. The first of these regards the adoption of the ‘high’ and ‘low’ Istat variants in place of the main variant, with the exception of mortality assumptions which have been revised according to the updating procedures (see Chapter 1).

Such scenarios foresee a modification of all demographic parameters, as of 2016, on the basis of the different degree of attention paid to welfare, which is higher in the former and lower in the latter.

The high variant scenario considers a fertility rate augmented by 0.2 in 2060, a further increase of life expectancy, in the same year, of 1.9 years for male and of 2.3 years for female, and a net flow of immigrants 40 thousand units higher on average, passing from 20 to 60 thousand during the whole forecasting period. The low variant scenario presupposes figures moving in the opposite direction, with substantially symmetrical deviations from the main variant scenario.

At the end of the forecasting period, the effects produced on pension, health care and LTC expenditures, taken together, appears negligible, with a difference in either direction of about 0.4 percentage points (Table E). Such a difference stems from the substantial compensation between the effects due to changes in life expectancy, on the one hand, and net migration flows and fertility rates, on the other. In 2040, deviations vary from 0.3-0.4 percentage points.

The other sensitivity exercises relating to demographic parameters concern, in turn, the fertility rate, life expectancy at birth, and the net flow of immigrants. In carrying out these exercises it was thought best to consider as alternative hypotheses for each of the above mentioned parameters the corresponding values assumed in the high and low variant scenarios. Such a choice meant that the alternatives taken into consideration were not always perfectly symmetrical. However, it allowed every single exercise to be interpreted as the contribution made to the overall result by each single demographic parameter, which originates from the application of the high and low variants, net of any interaction effect.

The effects brought about by changing single demographic parameters appear to be reasonably symmetrical, especially if assessed in relation to the magnitude of variations.

With regard to the sensitivity exercise concerning fertility rate, the ratio between overall expenditure and GDP shows deviations inversely correlated to those of the parameter. At the end of the forecasting period, the alternative hypotheses produce an oscillation of about 0.4-0.5 percentage points in the ratio of total expenditure to GDP,


12

almost equally split between the pension component, on the one hand, and the health and LTC component on the other.

Regarding the hypotheses on life expectancy, the changes brought about are opposed to those in the case of fertility and of slightly greater magnitude. In particular, the total expenditure to GDP ratio diverges by about 0.5-0.6 percentage points in 2060, where the contribution of the health and LTC component is higher than that of pensions. Around 2040, however, the overall effect is negligible insofar as the change in the pension component moves in the opposite direction to that at the end of the forecasting period, because of the indexation of eligibility requirements. This implies a substantial compensation for the effect foreseen for health and LTC components.

Finally, changing only the net flow of immigration produces, in 2060, an inversely correlated oscillation of about 0.5 percentage points in the ratio of total expenditure to GDP, more than two-thirds of which is attributable to the pension component. About half a percent of such an effect comes about by 2040.

The sensitivity analysis relating to the macroeconomic hypotheses concerns, in turn, a change in the productivity growth rate, in participation rates, and in unemployment rates (Table F).

An alteration of 0.25% in the rate of productivity growth, both positive and negative, produces a reduction or an increase in the ratio between pension expenditure and GDP of 0.5 percentage points at the end of the forecasting period. Such an effect is entirely in place by 2040.

The effect of a change in participation rates, gradually applied by cohort, is much smaller, however. In this case, the reduction of 2 percentage points in the average rate brings about an increase in the ratio between total expenditure and GDP equal to 0.3 percentage points at the end of the forecasting period, whilst the opposite hypothesis sees a symmetrical effect.

To come, finally, to the unemployment rate, the only hypothesis made regards an increase in the rate, as a corresponding change in the opposite direction is not considered realistic or economically significant. In particular, the simulated alternative assumes no variation in the unemployment rate at a level of 7.5% starting from 2030, which almost corresponds to the average unemployment rate in the five-year period 2003-2007. This results in an increase in the average unemployment rate, at the close of the forecasting period, of 2 percentage points, compared to the national baseline scenario. At the same date, the ratio between total expenditure and GDP shows an increase of 0.21 percentage points.

The sensitivity analysis shows, however, that the health and LTC component of public expenditure as a share of GDP is scarcely dependent on macroeconomic assumptions. The effects reported above are therefore almost entirely to be attributed to pension expenditure. This is due to the fact that the evolution of health and LTC consumption, independent from demographic changes (CPS), being correlated to GDP per capita and, to a lesser extent, to productivity, automatically produces changes in expenditure which counterbalance those brought about on GDP.


13

Table A: projection of total public(1)

expenditure on pensions, health care, LTC, education and unemployment benefits as a percentage of GDP - EPC-WGA baseline scenario

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Pensions (2) 14.8 15.8 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 15.9 15.6 15.0 14.3 13.9

Health care(2)(3) 7.0 6.9 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.6

- LTC component 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1

LTC - social assistance component(2)(3) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5

Education(4) 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6

Unemployment benefits (2) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

27.5 28.3 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.1

(1) For the period 2016-2019, expenditure values are in line with those underlying the short term, public finance forecasts. For

the following period, the structural assumptions of the EPC-WGA baseline scenario have been adopted and properly adjusted

to the short term values.

(2) Social cash benefit and health care expenditures refer to National Account data up to 2015. For the period 2016-2019, the

projected values are in line with the public finance forecasts (DEF 2016).

(3) The projection is made in accordance with the ‘reference scenario’ methodology.

(4) The aggregate includes the ISCED levels 1-6, according to the OECD classification. It does not include adult education (life-

long training) and pre-primary school expenditure.

(5) Rounding numbers to the closest decimal digit may cause inconsistency with the figures reported in the table.

Total(5)


14

Table B: assumptions and projection results - National baseline scenario

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Fertility rates 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6

Life expectancy

- male 79.3 80.9 82.5 83.8 85.0 85.9

- female 84.3 85.9 87.5 88.8 89.9 90.8

Annual net immigration (thousands) 200 251 220 206 194 182

Elderly dependency ratio(2) 31.1 35.6 43.0 55.3 60.3 59.7

Participation rates [15-64]

- male 73.1 72.2 74.9 77.5 77.9 77.7

- female 51.1 55.2 59.5 62.3 62.9 62.8

- tota l 62.0 63.7 67.1 69.9 70.4 70.2

Unemployment rates

- male 7.5 9.1 6.7 5.2 4.8 4.7

- female 9.6 10.3 8.3 7.0 6.6 6.5

- tota l 8.4 9.6 7.4 6.0 5.6 5.5

Employment rates [15-64]

- male 67.5 65.4 69.5 73.0 73.7 73.6

- female 46.1 49.4 54.2 57.5 58.3 58.2

- tota l 56.8 57.3 61.8 65.2 66.0 65.9

Employment(3)

- male 0.0 0.7 0.0 -0.4 0.0

- female 0.9 1.2 0.2 -0.3 0.0

- tota l 0.4 0.9 0.1 -0.3 0.0

Productivity(3) -0.1 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.5

Real GDP(3) 0.3 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.5

Pensions [a] 14.8 15.2 15.0 15.3 15.0 13.7

Health care(4) [b] 7.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 7.8 7.9

(LTC component)[c]

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1

LTC(4) [d] 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.7

Tota l [a ]+[b] -[c]+[d] 22.9 22.8 23.1 24.0 24.3 23.3

Ista

t dem

ogra

phic

ass

um

ptions

(1)

Mai

n v

aria

nt

Macr

oeco

nom

ic a

ssum

ptions

valu

es

in %

Pro

ject

ion r

esu

lts

Exp

enditure

in %

of

GD

P

(1) After 2015, the projection reflects the demographic hypotheses adopted by Istat (Istat, 2011 - “Il futuro

demografico del paese: previsioni regionali della popolazione residente al 2065”). Projections have been

recalibrated to the population data on the 1st January 2015, which represents the base year. In order to take into

account the 2015 life expectancy reduction, as estimated by Istat, the probabilities of death have been raised to

lower life expectancy of about 3 months.

(2) Population of 65 and over as a percentage of population 15-64. Values in %.

(3) Average annual percentage change in the preceding decade.

(4) The projections consider the hypotheses of the reference scenario. The dynamics of age cost profiles are

based on the application of the death-related costs methodology to the hospital component of health care

expenditure and the ‘partial’ application of the dynamic equilibrium methodology to the other health care

provisions.


15

Table C: assumptions and projection results – EPC-WGA baseline scenario

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Fertility rates 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6

Life expectancy

- male 79.3 80.8 82.1 83.3 84.4 85.5

- female 84.3 85.5 86.6 87.7 88.7 89.7

Annual net immigration (thousands) 200 348 382 336 215 196

Elderly dependency ratio(2) 31.1 34.9 40.8 49.9 52.9 53.1

Participation rates [15-64]

- male 73.1 74.0 73.3 72.3 72.0 71.8

- female 51.1 56.6 57.5 58.1 58.3 58.3

- tota l 62.0 65.3 65.5 65.3 65.2 65.2

Unemployment rates

- male 7.5 9.2 7.9 6.8 6.9 6.8

- female 9.6 10.1 8.5 7.4 7.4 7.3

- tota l 8.4 9.6 8.2 7.1 7.1 7.0

Employment rates [15-64]

- male 67.5 66.4 67.2 67.1 66.8 66.6

- female 46.1 50.3 52.4 53.6 53.7 53.8

- tota l 56.8 58.4 59.9 60.4 60.4 60.3

Employment(3)

- male 0.0 0.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.0

- female 0.9 0.8 0.0 -0.1 0.0

- tota l 0.4 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 0.0

Productivity(3) -0.1 0.7 1.6 1.7 1.6

Real GDP(3) 0.2 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6

Pensions [a] 14.8 15.3 15.7 15.9 15.0 13.9

Health care(4) [b] 7.0 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.6

(LTC component)[c]

0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1

LTC(4) [d] 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6

Tota l [a ]+[b] -[c]+[d] 22.9 22.9 23.7 24.4 23.9 23.0

Euro

stat

dem

ogra

phic

ass

um

ption

(1)

Macr

oeco

nom

ic a

ssum

ptions

valu

es

in %

Pro

ject

ion r

esu

lts

Exp

enditure

in %

of

GD

P

(1) Source: Economic Policy Committee - European Commission (2014), “The 2015 Ageing Report: Underlying

Assumptions and Projection Methodologies”. The population projection has been revised in its starting values

according to Istat’s estimates of resident population on the 1 st January 2015 and gradually aligned to Eurostat

main variant projection by 2020, following a cohort approach. In the transitional phase, differences induced by the

realigning process have been interpreted as a revision of net migratory flows.

(2) Population of 65 and over as a percentage of population 15-64. Values in %.

(3) Average annual percentage change in the preceding decade.

(4) The projections consider the hypotheses of the reference scenario. The dynamics of age cost profiles are

based on the application of the death-related costs methodology to the hospital component of health care

expenditure and the ‘partial’ application of the dynamic equilibrium methodology to the other health care

provisions.


16

Table D: replacement rates of the public pension system - National baseline scenario (in%)(1)

Tab. D.1: gros s replacement ra tes

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Bas e cas e (2)

Private employee 73.7 68.7 67.6 61.3 62.6 63.1

(age/contr. period) (65+4m/38) (3) (67/38) (68+2m/38) (66+2m/38) (67/38) (67+10m/38)

Se lf-employed 72.2 52.6 46.8 47.0 50.1 50.9


Old age retirement (4)


(age/contr. period) (65+4m/35+4m) (3) (67/37) (68+2m/38+2m) (69+2m/39+2m) (70/40) (70+10m/40+10m)

Se lf-employed 67.7 50.3 46.7 48.0 52.0 54.6


Tab. D.2: net replacement ra tes (5)

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Bas e cas e (2)



Se lf-employed 93.2 74.7 68.0 68.3 71.8 72.8


Old age retirement (4)



Se lf-employed 88.2 72.0 67.8 69.4 74.1 77.0


Contribution period: 38 years

Years of contribution and age requirement increas ing through time

Contribution period: 38 years

Years of contribution and age requirement increas ing through time

(1) Historical data for the dynamics of individual wages/earnings are hypothesized as equal to the growth rate of average gross wage per dependent worker, and those for the

forecasting period beginning in 2017 as equal to the growth rate of nominal GDP per worker. For 2016, GDP, inflation, and average gross wage per dependent worker, used as

a reference for earnings, have been taken from the macroeconomic scenario worked out for the 2016-Economic and Financial Document.

(2) For dependent workers, the retirement age is aligned to the minimum requirement for an old age pension when enrolled before 1/1/1996 (DB and mixed regimes), and to

the minimum requirement for early retirement (three years lower than the old age one), when enrolled thereafter (NDC regime). For the self-employed, the retirement age is

aligned to the minimum requirement for an old age pension in all three regimes (DB, mixed and NDC). The contribution period is 38 years for both classes of worker.

(3) The retirement age for women is 5 years lower.

(4) The retirement age is aligned to the minimum requirement for an old age pension; the contribution period is linked to the retirement age with the beginning of a working

career at the age of 30 and no breaks thereafter.

(5) The tax legislation currently in force has been applied.


17

Table E: sensitivity analysis of the demographic hypotheses(1)

- Changes in the expenditure/GDP ratio compared with the national baseline scenario (in %)

Table F: sensitivity analysis of the macroeconomic hypotheses - Changes in the expenditure/GDP ratio

compared with the national baseline scenario (in %)

2040 2060 2040 2060 2040 2060

Scenario

high variant -0.32 -0.44 0.02 0.00 -0.30 -0.45

low variant 0.37 0.41 0.00 0.02 0.37 0.43

Fertility rate changes in 2060

high variant +0.20 -0.03 -0.22 -0.06 -0.21 -0.09 -0.43

low variant -0.22 0.03 0.26 0.08 0.25 0.12 0.52

Life expectancy changes in 2060

high variant (m = +1.9) ; (f = +2.3) -0.10 0.10 0.15 0.35 0.05 0.45

low variant (m = -2.1) ; (f = -2.5) 0.13 -0.21 -0.14 -0.36 0.00 -0.57

Net flow of immigration(3)

high variant +40 thousand units -0.20 -0.33 -0.05 -0.13 -0.25 -0.46

low variant -40 thousand units 0.20 0.35 0.07 0.15 0.27 0.50

(1) Changes in the demographic parameters apply from 2016.

(2) The projections consider the hypotheses of the reference scenario.

(3) Average annual level. The deviation is gradually increasing and reaches 60 thousand units in 2060.

Pens ions Hea lth and LTC( 2 ) Tota lHypotheses

2040 2060 2040 2060 2040 2060

Productivity annual change

high variant +0.25% -0.52 -0.52 0.02 0.03 -0.50 -0.50

low variant -0.25% 0.54 0.56 -0.01 -0.02 0.53 0.54

Activity rates changes in 2040

high variant +2 p.p. -0.25 -0.24 -0.03 -0.04 -0.27 -0.28

low variant -2 p.p. 0.26 0.25 0.04 0.05 0.30 0.30

Unemployment rates changes in 2060

low variant +2 p.p. 0.16 0.18 0.02 0.03 0.18 0.21

Tota l


Pens ions Hea lth and LTC(1)

Hypotheses


18

Figure A: public expenditure for pension, health care and LTC - National baseline scenario

Expenditure to GDP ratio

Fig . A1: Publ ic pe ns ion e xpe ndi ture

Fig . A2: Publ ic he a l th c a re e xpe ndi ture(1)

Fig . A3: Publ ic LTC e xpe ndi ture(1)

(1) The projections consider the hypotheses of the pure ageing scenario.

7.9%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

13.7%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

3.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060


19

Figure B: public health and LTC expenditure - National baseline scenario


Fig . B1: Publ ic he a l th c a re e xpe ndi ture(1)

Fig . B2: Publ ic LTC e xpe ndi ture(1)

Fig . B3: Publ ic he a l th a nd LTC e xpe ndi ture

(1) Includes the LTC component of health care.

7.9%

7.9%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

3.0%

2.7%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

9.8%

9.5%

5.5%

6.5%

7.5%

8.5%

9.5%

10.5%

11.5%

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

Pure ageing scenario Reference scenario


20

Figure C: national baseline scenario and EPC-WGA baseline scenario


Fig . C1: Publ ic pe ns ion e xpe ndi ture

Fig . C2: Publ ic he a l th c a re e xpe ndi ture(1)

Fig . C3: Publ ic LTC e xpe ndi ture(1)


7.9%

7.6%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

13.7%

13.9%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2.7%2.6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

National baseline scenario EPC-WGA baseline scenario


21

Figure D: public expenditure for pension, health care and LTC(1)


Fig . D1: Na tiona l ba se l ine sc e na rio

Fig . D2: EPC-WGA ba se l ine sc e na rio


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

pension

Health Care

LTC

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

pension

LTC

HealthCare


23

Annex: assumptions and projection results – Tables

A1 - National baseline scenario: demographic assumptions.

A2 - National baseline scenario: macroeconomic assumptions.

A3 - National baseline scenario: pension expenditure.

A4 - National baseline scenario: health care expenditure.

A5 - National baseline scenario: LTC expenditure.

B1 - EPC-WGA baseline scenario: demographic assumptions.

B2 - EPC-WGA baseline scenario: macroeconomic assumptions.

B3 - EPC-WGA baseline scenario: pension expenditure.

B4 - EPC-WGA baseline scenario: health care expenditure.

B5 - EPC-WGA baseline scenario: LTC expenditure.

C.1.a - Demographic assumptions: high variant.

C.1.b - Demographic assumptions: low variant.

C.2.a - Fertility rate: +0.2 in 2060.

C.2.b - Fertility rate: -0.22 in 2060.

C.3.a - Life expectancy: +1.9 years for males, +2.3 years for females in 2060.

C.3.b - Life expectancy: -2.1 years for males, -2.5 years for females in 2060.

C.4.a - Net flow of immigrants: +40,000 annual average units.

C.4.b - Net flow of immigrants: -40,000 annual average units.

C.5.a - Participation rates: +2 percentage points in 2040.

C.5.b - Participation rates: -2 percentage points in 2040.

C.6.a - Productivity: +0.25% per year.

C.6.b - Productivity: -0.25% per year.

C.7.a - Unemployment rate: +2 percentage points in 2060.

D.1.1.1 - Gross replacement rates of the public pension system under the national baseline scenario: base case.

D.1.1.2 - Gross replacement rates of the public pension system under the national baseline scenario: base case with career growth reduced by 0.5%.

D.1.1.3 - Gross replacement rates of the public pension system under the national baseline scenario: base case with career growth increased by 0.5%.

D.1.2.1 - Net replacement rates of the public pension system under the national baseline scenario: base case.

D.1.2.2 - Net replacement rates of the public pension system under the national baseline scenario: base case with career growth reduced by 0.5%.

D.1.2.3 - Net replacement rates of the public pension system under the national baseline scenario: base case with career growth increased by 0.5%.


24

D.2.1.1 - Gross replacement rates of the public and private pension systems under the national baseline scenario: base case.

D.2.2.1 - Net replacement rates of the public and private pension systems under the national baseline scenario: base case.

E.1.1.1 - Gross replacement rates of the public pension system under the EPC-WGA baseline scenario: base case.

E.1.1.2 - Gross replacement rates of the public pension system under the EPC-WGA baseline scenario: base case with career growth reduced by 0.5%.

E.1.1.3 - Gross replacement rates of the public pension system under the EPC-WGA baseline scenario: base case with career growth increased by 0.5%.

E.1.2.1 - Net replacement rates of the public pension system under the EPC-WGA baseline scenario: base case.

E.1.2.2 - Net replacement rates of the public pension system under the EPC-WGA baseline scenario: base case with career growth reduced by 0.5%.

E.1.2.3 - Net replacement rates of the public pension system under the EPC-WGA baseline scenario: base case with career growth increased by 0.5%.

E.2.1.1 - Gross replacement rates of the public and private pension systems under the EPC-WGA baseline scenario: base case.

E.2.2.1 - Net replacement rates of the public and private pension systems under the EPC-WGA baseline scenario: base case.


25

A1 - Nat ional baseline scenario : demographic assumpt ions - I st at main variant ( a )

A1.1 - Demographic parameters

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

54.4 (b) 202.7 (b) 200.1 (b) 0.1 251.3 233.6 219.9 213.1 206.5 200.0 193.7 187.6 181.6

1.26 (c) 1.34 (c) 1.46 (c) 1.35 1.46 1.47 1.49 1.51 1.53 1.55 1.56 1.58 1.60

76.5 (d) 78.1 (d) 79.3 (d) 80.1 80.9 81.7 82.5 83.2 83.8 84.4 85.0 85.5 85.9

82.3 (d) 83.5 (d) 84.3 (d) 84.7 85.9 86.7 87.5 88.1 88.8 89.3 89.9 90.4 90.8

A1.2 - Population by s ex and age bracket (1 s t of January - thous ands )

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

4,181 4,219 4,339 4,313 4,236 4,092 4,028 4,012 4,034 4,052 4,037 3,992 3,947

[15-19] 1,569 1,465 1,515 1,480 1,519 1,553 1,468 1,429 1,401 1,400 1,409 1,420 1,415

[20-54] 14,323 14,345 14,354 14,332 13,890 13,291 12,755 12,368 12,191 12,047 11,883 11,767 11,632

3,256 3,407 3,581 3,699 4,140 4,604 4,734 4,460 3,983 3,677 3,630 3,603 3,586

3,503 3,765 3,953 4,262 4,398 4,709 5,141 5,744 6,156 6,093 5,666 5,227 5,013

4,234 4,706 5,125 5,677 6,061 6,521 7,206 7,990 8,654 9,000 9,010 8,868 8,688

731 941 1,172 1,415 1,664 1,812 2,064 2,246 2,498 2,907 3,345 3,641 3,675

27,563 28,142 28,916 29,502 29,847 30,061 30,191 30,259 30,263 30,177 29,970 29,650 29,268

3,964 3,991 4,086 4,070 3,994 3,856 3,790 3,773 3,792 3,808 3,793 3,748 3,704

1,499 1,388 1,426 1,384 1,431 1,463 1,385 1,343 1,315 1,313 1,321 1,330 1,324

14,316 14,311 14,454 14,348 13,911 13,312 12,759 12,355 12,153 11,984 11,806 11,675 11,517

3,505 3,622 3,799 3,950 4,414 4,876 5,004 4,726 4,237 3,918 3,845 3,793 3,769

4,576 4,706 4,772 4,980 5,100 5,444 5,900 6,526 6,948 6,862 6,384 5,879 5,598

6,076 6,612 7,027 7,542 7,923 8,425 9,186 10,067 10,848 11,310 11,423 11,349 11,167

1,500 1,906 2,255 2,562 2,822 2,981 3,286 3,542 3,900 4,448 5,039 5,469 5,569

29,361 29,923 30,792 31,294 31,673 31,932 32,124 32,264 32,345 32,333 32,187 31,894 31,481

8,145 8,210 8,425 8,383 8,230 7,948 7,818 7,784 7,826 7,861 7,830 7,740 7,651

3,069 2,853 2,941 2,864 2,950 3,016 2,853 2,771 2,716 2,713 2,730 2,750 2,739

28,639 28,656 28,809 28,680 27,801 26,602 25,514 24,723 24,343 24,032 23,689 23,441 23,149

6,761 7,028 7,380 7,649 8,554 9,481 9,738 9,186 8,221 7,595 7,475 7,396 7,355

8,079 8,470 8,725 9,242 9,498 10,153 11,041 12,269 13,104 12,955 12,050 11,106 10,610

10,310 11,318 12,153 13,219 13,984 14,946 16,392 18,057 19,502 20,310 20,433 20,217 19,855

2,231 2,847 3,427 3,977 4,486 4,793 5,351 5,788 6,397 7,355 8,384 9,110 9,245

56,924 58,065 59,707 60,796 61,519 61,992 62,315 62,523 62,608 62,510 62,157 61,544 60,749

A1.3 - Demographic indicators

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

29.1% 31.7% 33.6% 36.4% 38.5% 41.4% 46.5% 53.3% 59.9% 64.2% 65.6% 65.6% 65.1%

31.7% 31.0% 31.4% 31.0% 30.8% 30.4% 30.3% 31.1% 32.4% 33.4% 33.9% 34.0% 34.1%

60.8% 62.7% 65.0% 67.3% 69.2% 71.8% 76.8% 84.4% 92.3% 97.6% 99.4% 99.6% 99.2%

91.9% 102.3% 106.9% 117.5% 125.1% 136.3% 153.6% 171.1% 185.0% 192.1% 193.5% 192.7% 191.1%

Migratory flow (thousands)

Fertility rate (children per woman)

male

female

Life expectancy

(a) Source: Istat (2011), “Il futuro demografico del paese: previsioni regionali della popolazione residente al 2065”. Projections have been recalibrated to

the population data on the first January 2015, which represents the base year. In order to take into account the 2015 life expectancy reduction, as

estimated by Istat, the probabilities of death have been raised to lower life expectancy of about 3 months.

(b) Source: http://demo.istat.it. More specifically, for 2000 “Ricostruzione intercensuaria del bilancio demografico 1991-2001“. From 2001 to 2010,

“Ricostruzione intercensuaria del bilancio demografico 2001-2011”. From 2011, “Bilancio demografico e popolazione residente al 31 Dicembre”.

(c) Source: http://demo.istat.it, 'Indicatori demografici - anno 2016'.

(d) Source: Istat, 'Tavole di mortalità della popolazione italiana'.

(e) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(f) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(g) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(h) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].

Total dependency ratio(g)

Ageing index(h)

[0-14]

[65+]

[80+]

[15-19]

[20-54]

[65-79]

[55-64]

[65+]

[65+]

[80+]

[0-14]

[55-64]

[65-79]

Male

[55-64]

Elderly dependency ratio(e)

Youth dependency ratio(f )

[65-79]

[0-14]

[15-19]

Male and female

[80+]

total

total

total

[20-54]

Female


26

A2 - Nat ional baseline scenario : macroeconomic assumpt ions

A2.1 - Employment ( a ) , labour productivity and GDP

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

41.8% 41.2% 41.9% 42.1% 43.3% 44.4% 44.3% 43.9% 42.9% 42.7% 42.9% 43.5%

38.6% 37.7% 36.9% 38.0% 39.7% 41.1% 41.3% 41.3% 40.4% 40.3% 40.6% 41.1%

24,284 24,583 25,496 25,889 26,869 27,654 27,675 27,511 26,835 26,527 26,424 26,425

22,407 22,527 22,463 23,402 24,608 25,603 25,844 25,859 25,283 25,035 24,963 24,972

7.7% 8.4% 11.9% 9.6% 8.4% 7.4% 6.6% 6.0% 5.8% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5%

1,631 1,606 1,547 1,648 1,798 1,969 2,132 2,300 2,443 2,613 2,809 3,027

1,490 1,606 1,636 1,882 2,267 2,741 3,276 3,903 4,576 5,405 6,416 7,633

28,648 28,208 27,181 28,955 31,592 34,593 37,446 40,405 42,909 45,908 49,351 53,183

72,777 71,279 68,880 70,431 73,079 76,911 82,476 88,943 96,606 104,383 112,539 121,230

26,183 28,208 28,747 33,065 39,831 48,153 57,550 68,562 80,389 94,958 112,706 134,097

66,515 71,279 72,848 80,428 92,137 107,062 126,757 150,924 180,988 215,911 257,010 305,675

91.4 100.0 105.8 114.2 126.1 139.2 153.7 169.7 187.3 206.8 228.4 252.1

91.3 100.0 107.2 115.7 127.7 141.0 155.7 171.9 189.7 209.5 231.3 255.4

A2.2 - Partic ipation rates by s ex and age bracket(g)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

38.2% 32.8% 30.4% 28.5% 29.0% 31.8% 31.6% 31.4% 31.2% 31.1% 31.1% 31.3%

81.3% 80.7% 82.2% 80.3% 81.6% 83.3% 84.8% 86.5% 87.2% 87.4% 87.4% 87.4%

74.4% 73.1% 74.1% 72.2% 73.2% 74.9% 76.2% 77.5% 77.8% 77.9% 77.7% 77.7%

28.7% 23.1% 21.7% 20.9% 21.4% 23.0% 22.9% 22.7% 22.5% 22.4% 22.4% 22.5%

54.4% 56.0% 59.7% 61.1% 63.7% 66.0% 67.9% 69.5% 70.2% 70.5% 70.7% 70.6%

50.5% 51.1% 54.1% 55.2% 57.3% 59.5% 61.1% 62.3% 62.7% 62.9% 62.9% 62.8%

33.6% 28.1% 26.2% 24.8% 25.3% 27.5% 27.4% 27.2% 27.0% 26.9% 26.9% 27.0%

67.7% 68.2% 70.8% 70.6% 72.6% 74.6% 76.3% 77.9% 78.6% 78.9% 79.0% 79.0%

62.4% 62.0% 64.0% 63.7% 65.2% 67.1% 68.6% 69.9% 70.2% 70.4% 70.3% 70.2%

A2.3 - Employment ra tes by age bracket(g)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

25.5% 20.2% 15.6% 16.0% 17.1% 19.5% 20.2% 20.6% 20.7% 20.8% 20.9% 21.0%

63.4% 63.4% 63.6% 64.7% 67.3% 69.7% 71.7% 73.7% 74.5% 74.9% 75.0% 75.0%

57.5% 56.8% 56.3% 57.3% 59.4% 61.8% 63.7% 65.2% 65.8% 66.0% 66.0% 65.9%

[15-24]

(a) Labour market variables are consistent with the definition of the corrisponding aggregates in the Istat Labour force survey ('Rilevazione

Continua delle Forze di Lavoro').

(b) Labour force divided by the population on the 1 st January.

(c) Employment divided by the population on the 1 st January.

(d) GDP divided by the population on the 1 st January.

(e) GDP divided by the number of workers consistent with the labour force definition.

(f) Consumer Price Index for the family of the employed (white and blue collar) without tobacco.

(g) For the years 2005-2010, source: Istat, 'Rilevazione Continua delle Forze di Lavoro'.

GDP per worker (€ 2010)(e)

GDP per capita (€)(d)

GDP per worker (€)(e)

GDP deflator

Male

[15-24]

[25-64]

[15-64]

CPI deflator(f)

[25-64]

Male and female

[25-64]

[15-24]

[25-64]

[15-64]

[15-64]

[15-24]

GDP in real terms (billions € 2010)

Participation rate(b)

Unemployment rate

Labour force (thousands)

Employment (thousands)

Employment rate(c)

[15-64]

Female

GDP in nominal terms (billions €)

GDP per capita (€ 2010)(d)


27

A3 - Nat ional baseline scenario : pension expenditure

A3.1 - Tota l pens ion expenditure /GDP and its decompos ition

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

13.0% 13.4% 14.8% 15.8% 15.2% 15.2% 15.0% 15.3% 15.3% 15.5% 15.0% 14.3% 13.7%

15.1% 15.8% 17.3% 19.0% 19.3% 19.8% 19.7% 19.3% 18.7% 18.0% 17.2% 16.8% 16.6%

85.7% 84.4% 85.5% 83.3% 79.0% 76.5% 76.1% 78.9% 82.1% 86.3% 86.9% 85.3% 82.7%

A3.2 - Pens ion expenditure (2010 prices - mil l ions €)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

196,712 218,361 237,484 241,513 248,163 269,058 291,244 321,199 348,380 374,285 386,617 396,504 410,098

193,923 214,633 233,524 237,078 243,594 264,110 285,714 314,663 340,604 365,173 376,224 385,291 398,378

159,466 177,339 195,467 198,359 203,912 221,878 240,979 267,775 291,739 314,456 323,767 331,433 343,843

97,849 108,575 116,660 113,784 115,202 123,772 137,299 160,538 186,196 214,762 232,899 247,672 261,011

38,665 42,413 49,783 53,675 58,088 64,972 69,188 71,325 68,658 62,153 53,812 47,548 47,496

22,952 26,352 29,023 30,901 30,623 33,135 34,492 35,912 36,885 37,541 37,056 36,212 35,336

34,457 37,294 38,057 38,719 39,681 42,231 44,735 46,888 48,866 50,717 52,458 53,858 54,535

22,494 23,563 23,465 25,176 25,495 26,567 27,568 28,840 30,563 32,646 35,003 37,390 39,342

8,129 8,435 8,564 8,298 8,202 8,706 9,478 10,011 10,191 9,978 9,385 8,465 7,382

3,834 5,295 6,029 5,246 5,984 6,958 7,689 8,038 8,111 8,093 8,069 8,004 7,811

2,789 3,728 3,960 4,434 4,569 4,949 5,530 6,536 7,776 9,112 10,393 11,213 11,721

A3.3 - Number of pens ions ( thous ands )

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

18,511 18,921 19,250 18,705 18,477 18,819 19,480 20,397 21,240 21,827 21,759 21,303 20,646

17,802 18,131 18,412 17,824 17,558 17,920 18,541 19,358 20,090 20,560 20,422 19,979 19,381

13,178 13,394 13,697 13,188 12,843 13,136 13,761 14,611 15,373 15,851 15,718 15,321 14,850

7,842 7,680 7,598 7,119 6,799 7,012 7,625 8,533 9,523 10,395 10,784 10,857 10,670

1,828 1,895 2,113 2,231 2,333 2,507 2,621 2,645 2,533 2,299 2,006 1,791 1,753

3,507 3,820 3,986 3,839 3,711 3,617 3,515 3,432 3,316 3,157 2,927 2,673 2,427

4,624 4,737 4,715 4,636 4,715 4,784 4,780 4,747 4,717 4,710 4,704 4,658 4,531

3,034 3,037 2,940 2,798 2,766 2,760 2,734 2,745 2,801 2,890 2,983 3,048 3,050

565 622 641 652 667 689 704 699 676 636 582 520 454

1,026 1,079 1,134 1,185 1,282 1,335 1,343 1,303 1,240 1,183 1,138 1,091 1,027

709 790 838 881 919 899 939 1,038 1,149 1,267 1,337 1,324 1,265

A3.4 - Average pens ion (2010 prices )

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

10,627 11,540 12,337 12,912 13,431 14,297 14,951 15,748 16,402 17,148 17,769 18,612 19,864

10,893 11,838 12,683 13,301 13,874 14,738 15,410 16,255 16,954 17,761 18,423 19,284 20,555

12,101 13,240 14,271 15,040 15,877 16,890 17,511 18,327 18,977 19,839 20,598 21,632 23,154

12,477 14,138 15,354 15,984 16,944 17,652 18,007 18,813 19,552 20,660 21,596 22,813 24,461

21,153 22,385 23,556 24,056 24,899 25,914 26,394 26,961 27,102 27,040 26,819 26,542 27,089

6,544 6,899 7,282 8,050 8,251 9,160 9,812 10,463 11,122 11,892 12,658 13,547 14,562

7,451 7,872 8,071 8,353 8,416 8,828 9,359 9,877 10,359 10,769 11,152 11,562 12,037

7,414 7,759 7,980 8,998 9,216 9,627 10,085 10,508 10,912 11,295 11,733 12,269 12,899

14,397 13,570 13,354 12,718 12,299 12,629 13,468 14,312 15,066 15,688 16,115 16,290 16,258

3,737 4,908 5,318 4,425 4,669 5,211 5,727 6,169 6,540 6,839 7,092 7,336 7,607

3,933 4,718 4,725 5,033 4,972 5,507 5,889 6,294 6,766 7,193 7,775 8,470 9,269

A3.5 - Number of pens ioners(c) (thousands)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

15,594 15,720 15,251 14,998 15,226 15,836 16,717 17,479 18,006 17,937 17,549 17,011

11,530 11,952 12,725 12,970 13,426 14,253 15,389 16,432 17,101 17,120 16,784 16,302

7,182 7,261 7,135 7,047 7,156 7,415 7,818 8,162 8,371 8,258 7,999 7,699

5,082 5,318 5,811 5,993 6,255 6,643 7,176 7,666 7,943 7,872 7,634 7,358

8,412 8,459 8,115 7,952 8,071 8,420 8,898 9,317 9,635 9,679 9,550 9,313

6,449 6,635 6,914 6,977 7,170 7,610 8,213 8,766 9,158 9,248 9,149 8,944

Direct pensions

for public sector employees

Number of pensions

for self-employed

Public pensions

for self-employed

(a) Social pensions and old age allowances starting from 1996.

(b) Net of reimbursements of pensions (or part of their amount) unduly paid.

(c) Includes non-resident people.

Average pension (€)

Public pensions


for self-employed


Old age means-tested transfers (a) (b)

Total number of pensioners

- of which with 65+

- of which with 65+

Female

for private sector employees

Direct pensions

- of which with 65+

Number of pensions/workers

for self-employed

Survivors and child pensions

Average pension/GDP per worker


Total pension expenditure

Public pensions

Direct pensions


Total pension expenditure/GDP


Male




for self-employed






for self-employed



28

A4 - Nat ional baseline scenario : health care expenditure

A4.1 - Hea lth care expenditure /GDP by age bracket - Pure age ing s cenario(a)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

3.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0%

1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2%

1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8%

6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.6% 6.8% 7.0% 7.3% 7.5% 7.7% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%

3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%

1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0%

0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1%

5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.5% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7%

0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8%

0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2%

A4.2 - Hea lth care expenditure /GDP by age bracket - Reference s cenario(b)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

3.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%

1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1%

1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8%

6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.5% 7.7% 7.8% 7.9% 7.9%

3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%

1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0%

0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%

5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%

0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7%

0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1%

A4.3 - Hea lth care expenditure /GDP - Diffe rent hypothes es

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 7.4% 7.4% 7.3%

5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.7% 5.7% 5.7% 5.8% 6.0% 6.3% 6.4% 6.3% 6.2%

6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.8% 6.9% 7.1% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6%

5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.7% 5.9% 6.1% 6.3% 6.4% 6.5% 6.6% 6.6% 6.5%

6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9% 7.2% 7.4% 7.7% 7.9% 8.1% 8.2% 8.2%

5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.3% 6.5% 6.7% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 6.9%

A4.4 - Hea lth care expenditure /GDP - Hypothes es adopted by EPC-WGA(d)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%

5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7%

[65-79]

[80+]

total

Pure ageing scenario + dynamic health

care consumption profiles (c)

- of which acute care

Acute e Long Term Care

Acute Care

Long Term Care

[0-64]

[65-79]

[80+]

total

[0-64]

[65-79]

[80+]

total

[0-64]

[65-79]

[80+]

(a) Unit cost (CPS) linked to GDP per capita and constant age-related expenditure profiles.

(b) Unit cost (CPS) linked to GDP per capita for acute care, and to GDP per worker, for long term care; elasticity of CPS to GDP per capita above one;

application of death-related costs to the hospital care expenditure profile and partial dynamic equilibrium (50% of changes in life expectancy) to the other

health care provisions.

(c) Age-related expenditure profiles change according to the methodology of death-related costs, for the hospital care expenditure profile, and the

methodology of partial dynamic equilibrium, for the other health care provisions.

(d) Differs from the reference scenario insofar as the age-related expenditure profile evolves accordingly to the partial dynamic equilibrium methodology for

each health care provision.

Reference scenario + partial dynamic

equilibrium for every health care provision

(including hospital care)

Pure ageing scenario + unit cost linked to

GDP per worker


Pure ageing scenario + elasticity of unit

cost to GDP per capita above 1



total

Long Term Care

Acute Care


[0-64]

total

[0-64]

[65-79]

[80+]

total

[0-64]

[65-79]

[80+]


29

A5 - Nat ional baseline scenario : LTC expenditure

A5.1 - LTC expenditure /GDP by age bracket - Pure age ing s cenario(a)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0%

0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2%

0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4%

0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

37.9% 34.3% 33.0% 31.8% 29.9% 27.6% 25.0% 22.4% 20.1% 18.4% 17.1% 16.4%

22.8% 21.5% 20.5% 19.3% 19.5% 19.4% 20.1% 20.5% 19.3% 17.0% 14.7% 13.3%

39.2% 44.2% 46.5% 48.9% 50.6% 53.0% 55.0% 57.1% 60.5% 64.6% 68.1% 70.3%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

49.1% 47.2% 44.7% 43.2% 40.8% 38.0% 34.7% 31.8% 29.1% 26.9% 25.3% 24.5%

19.4% 18.3% 17.8% 16.9% 17.4% 17.8% 18.7% 19.4% 18.5% 16.5% 14.4% 13.2%

31.4% 34.5% 37.5% 39.9% 41.8% 44.3% 46.6% 48.8% 52.4% 56.6% 60.2% 62.3%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

24.6% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 21.2% 19.3% 17.3% 15.2% 13.4% 12.2% 11.2% 10.6%

26.7% 24.1% 22.7% 21.0% 20.9% 20.5% 20.9% 21.2% 19.7% 17.2% 14.7% 13.1%

48.7% 53.4% 54.8% 56.4% 57.9% 60.2% 61.7% 63.6% 66.9% 70.6% 74.1% 76.2%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

32.1% 29.6% 27.3% 25.3% 23.6% 21.5% 19.2% 17.1% 15.2% 13.9% 12.9% 12.3%

25.2% 23.5% 22.5% 21.1% 21.3% 21.0% 21.6% 22.0% 20.7% 18.2% 15.7% 14.1%

42.7% 46.8% 50.2% 53.6% 55.2% 57.6% 59.2% 60.9% 64.1% 67.9% 71.4% 73.6%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

A5.2 - LTC expenditure /GDP by age bracket - Reference s cenario(b)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7%

0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1%

0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3%

0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%

37.9% 34.3% 33.0% 31.8% 29.8% 27.3% 24.7% 22.2% 20.0% 18.3% 17.0% 16.1%

22.8% 21.5% 20.5% 19.2% 19.1% 18.8% 19.3% 19.6% 18.3% 15.9% 13.6% 12.1%

39.2% 44.2% 46.5% 49.0% 51.1% 53.9% 56.0% 58.2% 61.7% 65.8% 69.5% 71.7%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

49.1% 47.2% 44.7% 43.1% 40.6% 37.8% 34.5% 31.5% 28.7% 26.5% 24.8% 24.0%

19.4% 18.3% 17.8% 16.8% 17.2% 17.3% 18.1% 18.7% 17.7% 15.6% 13.5% 12.3%

31.4% 34.5% 37.5% 40.1% 42.2% 44.9% 47.4% 49.9% 53.5% 57.9% 61.7% 63.8%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

24.6% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 21.3% 19.6% 17.7% 15.6% 13.9% 12.6% 11.7% 11.0%

26.7% 24.1% 22.7% 21.0% 20.4% 19.7% 19.9% 19.9% 18.4% 15.8% 13.3% 11.7%

48.7% 53.4% 54.8% 56.4% 58.3% 60.8% 62.5% 64.5% 67.8% 71.5% 75.0% 77.2%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

32.1% 29.6% 27.3% 25.2% 23.4% 21.2% 19.0% 16.8% 14.9% 13.5% 12.5% 11.9%

25.2% 23.5% 22.5% 21.0% 20.9% 20.4% 20.9% 21.1% 19.7% 17.1% 14.6% 13.0%

42.7% 46.8% 50.2% 53.8% 55.7% 58.3% 60.1% 62.1% 65.4% 69.3% 72.9% 75.1%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

[80+]

total

Attendance allowances


(b) Unit cost (CPS) linked to GDP per capita for attendance allowances, and to GDP per worker, for health care component and 'other LTC

provisions'; application of partial dynamic equilibrium (50% of changes in life expectancy) to all LTC provisions.

[65-79]

[0-64]

[65-79]

[80+]

LTC expenditure/GDP

Health care component

Other LTC provisions

[0-64]

total


[65-79]


LTC expenditure/GDP

[0-64]

[65-79]

[80+]

total

total

[0-64]



[80+]

total



[65-79]

[65-79]

Total expenditure

[0-64]

Distribution by age bracket


[80+]

total


Total expenditure

total


[0-64]

[65-79]


[0-64]

[80+]

[0-64]

[65-79]

[80+]

total

[80+]


30

B1 - EPC-WGA baseline scenario : Eurost at demographic assumpt ions (a)

B1.1 - Demographic parameters

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

202.7 (b) 200.1 (b) 133.1 (b) 348.1 368.4 382.4 367.7 335.9 277.8 214.8 206.9 196.4

1.34 (c) 1.46 (c) 1.35 (c) 1.47 1.49 1.51 1.53 1.55 1.56 1.58 1.60 1.61

78.1 (d) 79.3 (d) 80.1 (d) 80.8 81.4 82.1 82.7 83.3 83.9 84.4 85.0 85.5

83.5 (d) 84.3 (d) 84.7 (d) 85.5 86.1 86.6 87.2 87.7 88.2 88.7 89.2 89.7

B1.2 - Population by s ex and age bracket (1 s t of January - thous ands )

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

4,219 4,339 4,313 4,386 4,338 4,346 4,431 4,556 4,658 4,689 4,648 4,590

[15-19] 1,465 1,515 1,480 1,528 1,589 1,574 1,546 1,547 1,571 1,603 1,630 1,635

[20-54] 14,345 14,354 14,332 14,153 13,813 13,589 13,564 13,677 13,708 13,586 13,466 13,323

3,407 3,581 3,699 4,095 4,567 4,733 4,527 4,142 3,961 4,043 4,074 4,076

3,765 3,953 4,262 4,369 4,682 5,111 5,714 6,153 6,156 5,838 5,551 5,508

4,706 5,125 5,677 5,980 6,431 7,102 7,876 8,555 8,952 9,063 9,085 9,119

941 1,172 1,415 1,611 1,749 1,991 2,162 2,402 2,796 3,225 3,534 3,612

28,142 28,916 29,502 30,142 30,738 31,343 31,944 32,476 32,850 32,983 32,904 32,744

3,991 4,086 4,070 4,189 4,148 4,155 4,239 4,354 4,444 4,464 4,417 4,357

1,388 1,426 1,384 1,467 1,537 1,532 1,503 1,505 1,526 1,551 1,570 1,569

14,311 14,454 14,348 13,978 13,509 13,194 13,110 13,193 13,241 13,169 13,086 12,951

3,622 3,799 3,950 4,346 4,771 4,881 4,619 4,172 3,912 3,916 3,920 3,944

4,706 4,772 4,980 5,082 5,420 5,848 6,430 6,813 6,720 6,275 5,838 5,654

6,612 7,027 7,542 7,840 8,307 9,010 9,814 10,512 10,906 10,976 10,901 10,778

1,906 2,255 2,562 2,758 2,887 3,162 3,384 3,700 4,185 4,700 5,063 5,124

29,923 30,792 31,294 31,819 32,273 32,772 33,284 33,736 34,029 34,076 33,895 33,600

8,210 8,425 8,383 8,575 8,486 8,501 8,670 8,910 9,102 9,153 9,066 8,947

2,853 2,941 2,864 2,994 3,126 3,106 3,049 3,051 3,098 3,154 3,201 3,205

28,656 28,809 28,680 28,131 27,322 26,782 26,674 26,870 26,948 26,755 26,553 26,275

7,028 7,380 7,649 8,441 9,338 9,615 9,145 8,314 7,873 7,959 7,994 8,021

8,470 8,725 9,242 9,451 10,101 10,959 12,144 12,966 12,876 12,113 11,389 11,162

11,318 12,153 13,219 13,820 14,738 16,112 17,690 19,067 19,858 20,039 19,986 19,897

2,847 3,427 3,977 4,369 4,637 5,153 5,546 6,101 6,982 7,926 8,597 8,736

58,065 59,707 60,796 61,961 63,011 64,115 65,228 66,212 66,879 67,059 66,799 66,345

B1.3 - Demographic indicators

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

31.7% 33.6% 36.4% 37.8% 40.2% 44.3% 49.4% 54.2% 57.0% 57.7% 57.9% 58.0%

31.0% 31.4% 31.0% 31.6% 31.7% 31.9% 32.7% 34.0% 35.0% 35.5% 35.5% 35.4%

62.7% 65.0% 67.3% 69.4% 71.9% 76.2% 82.1% 88.2% 92.1% 93.2% 93.4% 93.5%

102.3% 106.9% 117.5% 119.5% 126.9% 138.8% 150.9% 159.4% 162.8% 162.8% 162.9% 163.7%

total

[20-54]

[55-64]

[65-79]

[65+]

Female

[0-14]

[65-79]

[15-19]

[20-54]

[55-64]

[55-64]

[65-79]

[65+]

[80+]

total

[65+]

[80+]

[80+]

Male and female

[0-14]

total

[15-19]

(a) Source: Economic Policy Committee - European Commission (2014), "The 2015 Ageing Report: Underlying Assumptions and Projection

Methodologies”. The population projection has been revised in its starting values according to Istat’s estimates of resident population on the first

January 2015 and gradually aligned to Eurostat main variant projection by 2020, following a cohort approach. In the transitional phase, differences

induced by the realigning process , have been interpreted as a revision of net migratory flows

(b)Source: http://demo.istat.it. From 2005 to 2010, “Ricostruzione intercensuaria del bilancio demografico 2001-2011”. From 2011, “Bilancio

demografico e popolazione residente al 31 Dicembre”.

(c) Source: http://demo.istat.it. 'Indicatori demografici - anno 2016'.

(d) Source: Istat, 'Tavole di mortalità della popolazione italiana'.

(e) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(f) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(g) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(h) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].

Youth dependency ratio(f)

Total dependency ratio(g)

Ageing index(h)

Elderly dependency ratio(e)

Male

[0-14]

Migratory flow (thousands)

Male

Female

Fertility rate (children per woman)

Life expectancy


31

B2 - EPC-WGA baseline scenario : macroeconomic assumpt ions

B2.1 - Employment ( a ) , labour productivity and GDP

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

41.8% 41.2% 41.9% 41.7% 42.6% 42.6% 41.6% 40.4% 39.6% 39.3% 39.5% 39.7%

38.6% 37.7% 36.9% 37.7% 38.8% 39.1% 38.4% 37.6% 36.8% 36.5% 36.7% 36.9%

24,284 24,583 25,496 25,820 26,850 27,298 27,112 26,777 26,477 26,378 26,376 26,343

22,407 22,527 22,463 23,348 24,476 25,069 25,069 24,889 24,603 24,510 24,514 24,491

7.7% 8.4% 11.9% 9.6% 8.8% 8.2% 7.5% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.0%

1,631 1,606 1,547 1,645 1,760 1,890 2,040 2,205 2,372 2,568 2,784 3,006

1,490 1,606 1,636 1,879 2,219 2,631 3,135 3,741 4,444 5,313 6,358 7,579

28,648 28,208 25,450 26,549 27,932 29,481 31,277 33,297 35,471 38,301 41,678 45,305

72,777 71,279 68,880 70,455 71,908 75,397 81,380 88,581 96,421 104,794 113,571 122,729

26,183 28,208 26,916 30,317 35,217 41,037 48,069 56,500 66,454 79,225 95,181 114,235

66,515 71,279 72,848 80,455 90,660 104,954 125,073 150,309 180,641 216,762 259,368 309,454

91.4 100.0 105.8 114.2 126.1 139.2 153.7 169.7 187.3 206.8 228.4 252.1

91.3 100.0 107.2 115.7 127.7 141.0 155.7 171.9 189.7 209.5 231.3 255.4

B2.2 - Partic ipation rates by s ex and age bracket ( g )

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

38.2% 32.8% 30.4% 30.8% 30.7% 31.4% 31.4% 31.1% 30.8% 30.6% 30.6% 30.8%

81.3% 80.7% 82.2% 82.1% 82.4% 81.7% 80.9% 80.5% 80.5% 80.4% 80.5% 80.6%

74.4% 73.1% 74.1% 74.0% 74.0% 73.3% 72.7% 72.3% 72.1% 72.0% 71.9% 71.8%

28.7% 23.1% 21.7% 23.4% 23.3% 23.9% 24.0% 23.8% 23.5% 23.4% 23.3% 23.5%

54.4% 56.0% 59.7% 62.5% 63.4% 64.1% 64.6% 65.0% 65.3% 65.4% 65.6% 65.7%

50.5% 51.1% 54.1% 56.6% 57.1% 57.5% 57.9% 58.1% 58.3% 58.3% 58.3% 58.3%

33.6% 28.1% 26.2% 27.2% 27.1% 27.7% 27.8% 27.5% 27.2% 27.1% 27.0% 27.2%

67.7% 68.2% 70.8% 72.3% 72.9% 73.0% 72.8% 72.9% 73.0% 73.1% 73.2% 73.2%

62.4% 62.0% 64.0% 65.3% 65.6% 65.5% 65.4% 65.3% 65.3% 65.2% 65.2% 65.2%

B2.3 - Employment ra tes by age bracket ( g )

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

25.5% 20.2% 15.6% 17.6% 18.7% 19.8% 20.5% 20.8% 20.6% 20.4% 20.4% 20.5%

63.4% 63.4% 63.6% 65.8% 67.4% 67.8% 68.0% 68.3% 68.5% 68.5% 68.7% 68.7%

57.5% 56.8% 56.3% 58.4% 59.6% 59.9% 60.2% 60.4% 60.4% 60.4% 60.3% 60.3%

[25-64]

GDP per worker (€)(e)

GDP deflator

GDP per capita (€)(d)

(a) Labour market variables are consistent with the definition of the corrisponding aggregates in the Istat Labour force survey ('Rilevazione

Continua delle Forze di Lavoro').

(b) Labour force divided by the population on the 1 st January.

(c) Employment divided by the population on the 1 st January.

(d) GDP divided by the population on the 1 st January.

(e) GDP divided by the number of workers consistent with the labour force definition.

(f) Consumer Price Index for the family of the employed (white and blue collar) without tobacco.

(g) For the years 2005-2010, source: Istat, 'Rilevazione Continua delle Forze di Lavoro'.

[15-24]

[25-64]

[15-64]

Male and female

[15-24]

[25-64]

[15-64]

[15-64]

[25-64]

[15-64]

[15-24]

Female

Male

[15-24]

GDP per worker (€ 2010)(e)

Employment rate(c)

CPI deflator(f )

GDP in real terms (billions € 2010)

GDP in nominal terms (billions €)

GDP per capita (€ 2010)(d)

Participation rate(b)

Unemployment rate

Labour force (thousands)

Employment (thousands)


32

B3 - EPC-WGA baseline scenario : pension expenditure

B3.1 - Tota l pens ion expenditure /GDP and its decompos ition

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

13.4% 14.8% 15.8% 15.3% 15.5% 15.7% 15.9% 15.9% 15.6% 15.0% 14.3% 13.9%

15.8% 17.3% 19.0% 19.3% 20.1% 20.1% 19.4% 18.5% 17.6% 16.8% 16.3% 16.2%

84.4% 85.5% 83.3% 79.1% 77.3% 78.2% 81.9% 85.9% 88.8% 89.3% 87.8% 85.9%

B3.2 - Pens ion expenditure (2010 prices - mil l ions €)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

218,361 237,484 241,513 248,163 270,009 293,011 319,684 345,736 365,985 379,500 392,492 411,780

214,633 233,524 237,078 243,594 264,924 287,388 313,273 338,387 357,450 370,016 382,261 400,946

177,339 195,467 198,359 203,914 222,910 243,072 266,952 290,126 307,498 318,482 329,527 347,767

108,575 116,660 113,784 115,211 124,211 138,688 160,615 185,937 210,472 230,033 246,250 263,185

42,413 49,783 53,675 58,084 65,550 70,090 70,911 67,864 60,328 51,636 46,908 48,197

26,352 29,023 30,901 30,619 33,149 34,294 35,425 36,324 36,698 36,813 36,369 36,385

37,294 38,057 38,719 39,680 42,014 44,316 46,321 48,261 49,952 51,533 52,734 53,179

23,563 23,465 25,176 25,488 26,382 27,235 28,448 30,219 32,244 34,515 36,769 38,537

8,435 8,564 8,298 8,205 8,703 9,480 9,992 10,135 9,856 9,188 8,209 7,090

5,295 6,029 5,246 5,987 6,929 7,601 7,881 7,906 7,852 7,831 7,756 7,551

3,728 3,960 4,434 4,569 5,085 5,623 6,411 7,350 8,535 9,484 10,232 10,834

B3.3 - Number of pens ions ( thous ands )

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

18,921 19,250 18,705 18,477 18,925 19,613 20,532 21,382 21,857 21,884 21,517 21,032

18,131 18,412 17,824 17,558 17,969 18,598 19,434 20,195 20,562 20,560 20,206 19,756

13,394 13,697 13,188 12,837 13,196 13,841 14,716 15,494 15,858 15,845 15,524 15,197

7,680 7,598 7,119 6,793 7,041 7,687 8,650 9,665 10,464 10,928 11,009 10,894

1,895 2,113 2,231 2,333 2,526 2,642 2,642 2,530 2,272 1,990 1,828 1,826

3,820 3,986 3,839 3,711 3,629 3,512 3,424 3,298 3,121 2,927 2,687 2,476

4,737 4,715 4,636 4,721 4,773 4,757 4,718 4,701 4,704 4,715 4,682 4,559

3,037 2,940 2,798 2,773 2,752 2,719 2,732 2,806 2,910 3,017 3,091 3,095

622 641 652 667 689 702 697 673 631 577 515 451

1,079 1,134 1,185 1,282 1,333 1,336 1,289 1,222 1,163 1,121 1,077 1,013

790 838 881 919 956 1,015 1,098 1,188 1,295 1,324 1,311 1,276

B3.4 - Average pens ion (2010 prices )

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

11,540 12,337 12,912 13,431 14,268 14,940 15,570 16,169 16,745 17,341 18,241 19,579

11,838 12,683 13,301 13,874 14,743 15,453 16,120 16,756 17,384 17,997 18,918 20,295

13,240 14,271 15,040 15,885 16,892 17,561 18,141 18,726 19,391 20,099 21,227 22,884

14,138 15,354 15,984 16,961 17,642 18,042 18,569 19,238 20,113 21,049 22,369 24,158

22,385 23,556 24,056 24,898 25,945 26,526 26,838 26,821 26,551 25,954 25,664 26,390

6,899 7,282 8,050 8,250 9,135 9,765 10,346 11,014 11,758 12,576 13,534 14,696

7,872 8,071 8,353 8,405 8,802 9,317 9,818 10,265 10,619 10,930 11,263 11,664

7,759 7,980 8,998 9,193 9,587 10,018 10,412 10,769 11,081 11,439 11,896 12,452

13,570 13,354 12,718 12,304 12,636 13,497 14,337 15,061 15,619 15,937 15,954 15,710

4,908 5,318 4,425 4,671 5,199 5,691 6,115 6,470 6,749 6,986 7,204 7,455

4,718 4,725 5,033 4,972 5,321 5,541 5,839 6,189 6,591 7,163 7,801 8,493

B3.5 - Number of pens ioners ( c ) ( thous ands )

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

15,594 15,720 15,251 14,980 15,310 15,986 16,887 17,652 18,061 18,074 17,764 17,394

11,530 11,952 12,725 12,930 13,430 14,279 15,431 16,447 17,004 17,096 16,826 16,522

7,182 7,261 7,135 7,051 7,206 7,498 7,929 8,320 8,513 8,509 8,372 8,207

5,082 5,318 5,811 5,981 6,259 6,657 7,216 7,725 7,985 8,020 7,894 7,763

8,412 8,459 8,115 7,928 8,104 8,487 8,958 9,332 9,547 9,565 9,392 9,187

6,449 6,635 6,914 6,949 7,171 7,622 8,215 8,722 9,019 9,076 8,933 8,759



for self-employed



Public pensions

Direct pensions

for self-employed




Public pensions

Direct pensions



for self-employed

Number of pensions/workers



Number of pensions

Total pension expenditure

for self-employed


Average pension/GDP per worker

Total pension expenditure/GDP



Public pensions

Direct pensions


(a) Social pensions and old age allowances starting from 1996.

(b) Net of reimbursements of pensions (or part of their amount) unduly paid.

(c) Includes non-resident people.

Average pension (€)



for self-employed


Total number of pensioners

- of which with 65+

Male

- of which with 65+

Female

- of which with 65+

for self-employed


33

B4 - EPC-WGA baseline scenario : health care expenditure

B4.1 - Hea lth care expenditure /GDP by age bracket - Pure age ing s cenario (a)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

3.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%

1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1%

1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5%

6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.8% 6.9% 7.1% 7.3% 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 7.6%

3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%

1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%

0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8%

5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.7% 5.9% 6.1% 6.2% 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%

0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%

0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%

B4.2 - Hea lth care expenditure /GDP by age bracket - Reference s cenario ( b )

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

3.6% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%

1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1%

1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5%

6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.7% 6.9% 7.1% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6%

3.2% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%

1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9%

0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9%

5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.7% 6.0% 6.1% 6.3% 6.4% 6.5% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6%

0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%

0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%

B4.3 - Hea lth care expenditure /GDP - Diffe rent hypothes es

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.5% 6.7% 7.0% 7.3% 7.6% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%

5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.7% 5.7% 5.8% 6.1% 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7%

6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.7% 6.8% 7.0% 7.1% 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3%

5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 6.1% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3%

6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.7% 7.8% 7.8%

5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.7% 6.0% 6.1% 6.3% 6.5% 6.6% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7%

B4.4 - Hea lth care expenditure /GDP - Hypothes es adopted by EPC-WGA (d)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.7% 6.9% 7.1% 7.2% 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 7.6%

5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.7% 5.9% 6.1% 6.2% 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%

total


(b) Unit cost (CPS) linked to GDP per capita for acute care, and to GDP per worker, for long term care; elasticity of CPS to GDP per capita above

one; application of death-related costs to the hospital care expenditure profile and partial dynamic equilibrium (50% of changes in life

expectancy) to the other health care provisions.

(c) Age-related expenditure profiles change according to the methodology of death-related costs, for the hospital care expenditure profile, and the

methodology of partial dynamic equilibrium, for the other health care provisions.

(d) Differs from the reference scenario insofar as the age-related expenditure profile evolves accordingly to the partial dynamic equilibrium

methodology for each health care provision.

Reference scenario + partial dynamic

equilibrium for every health care

provision (including hospital care)


Acute Care

[0-64]

[80+]

total

Long Term Care

Pure ageing scenario + elasticity of

unit cost to GDP per capita above 1

total

[80+]

total


Acute e Long Term Care[0-64]

[65-79]

[80+]

Acute Care

[0-64]

[0-64]

[65-79]

[80+]

total

[65-79]

total

Long Term Care

[0-64]

[65-79]

[65-79]

[80+]

[0-64]

[65-79]

[80+]


Pure ageing scenario + unit cost

linked to GDP per worker


Pure ageing scenario + dynamic

health care consumption profiles (c)



34

B5 - EPC-WGA baseline scenario : LTC expenditure

B5.1 - LTC expenditure /GDP by age bracket - Pure age ing s cenario (a)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7%

0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%

0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3%

0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%

37.9% 34.3% 33.0% 32.2% 30.8% 29.0% 26.9% 24.7% 22.7% 21.1% 19.9% 19.2%

22.8% 21.5% 20.5% 19.6% 19.9% 19.8% 20.5% 21.0% 19.9% 17.7% 15.6% 14.5%

39.2% 44.2% 46.5% 48.2% 49.3% 51.2% 52.6% 54.3% 57.4% 61.1% 64.5% 66.3%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

49.1% 47.2% 44.7% 43.7% 41.8% 39.6% 37.0% 34.6% 32.3% 30.3% 28.8% 28.0%

19.4% 18.3% 17.8% 17.1% 17.7% 17.9% 18.8% 19.4% 18.6% 16.7% 14.9% 14.0%

31.4% 34.5% 37.5% 39.2% 40.5% 42.5% 44.3% 46.0% 49.1% 53.0% 56.3% 58.0%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

24.6% 22.5% 22.5% 22.8% 21.8% 20.4% 18.7% 16.9% 15.3% 14.1% 13.2% 12.7%

26.7% 24.1% 22.7% 21.4% 21.5% 21.2% 21.7% 22.0% 20.6% 18.2% 15.9% 14.7%

48.7% 53.4% 54.8% 55.8% 56.7% 58.5% 59.6% 61.1% 64.1% 67.6% 70.8% 72.7%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

32.1% 29.6% 27.3% 26.0% 24.6% 23.0% 21.1% 19.3% 17.6% 16.3% 15.4% 14.9%

25.2% 23.5% 22.5% 21.5% 21.7% 21.5% 22.2% 22.6% 21.4% 19.1% 16.9% 15.5%

42.7% 46.8% 50.2% 52.6% 53.6% 55.5% 56.7% 58.1% 61.0% 64.5% 67.7% 69.6%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

B5.2 - LTC expenditure /GDP by age bracket - Reference s cenario (b)

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6%

0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%

0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2%

0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%

37.9% 34.3% 33.0% 32.2% 30.7% 28.8% 26.8% 24.8% 22.8% 21.2% 19.9% 19.1%

22.8% 21.5% 20.5% 19.5% 19.6% 19.3% 19.8% 20.1% 18.9% 16.7% 14.5% 13.3%

39.2% 44.2% 46.5% 48.3% 49.7% 51.9% 53.4% 55.2% 58.3% 62.1% 65.6% 67.6%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

49.1% 47.2% 44.7% 43.6% 41.7% 39.4% 36.7% 34.3% 31.9% 29.8% 28.2% 27.3%

19.4% 18.3% 17.8% 17.0% 17.4% 17.6% 18.3% 18.8% 17.9% 15.9% 14.1% 13.1%

31.4% 34.5% 37.5% 39.3% 40.9% 43.0% 45.0% 46.9% 50.2% 54.2% 57.7% 59.6%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

24.6% 22.5% 22.5% 22.8% 21.9% 20.5% 18.9% 17.2% 15.6% 14.5% 13.6% 13.0%

26.7% 24.1% 22.7% 21.4% 21.1% 20.4% 20.8% 20.8% 19.4% 16.9% 14.6% 13.2%

48.7% 53.4% 54.8% 55.8% 57.0% 59.0% 60.3% 62.0% 64.9% 68.6% 71.9% 73.8%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

32.1% 29.6% 27.3% 25.9% 24.5% 22.7% 20.8% 19.0% 17.3% 16.0% 15.0% 14.3%

25.2% 23.5% 22.5% 21.3% 21.5% 21.1% 21.6% 21.9% 20.6% 18.2% 15.8% 14.5%

42.7% 46.8% 50.2% 52.8% 54.0% 56.2% 57.5% 59.1% 62.1% 65.9% 69.2% 71.2%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


(b) Unit cost (CPS) linked to GDP per capita for attendance allowances, and to GDP per worker, for health care component and 'other LTC

provisions'; application of partial dynamic equilibrium (50% of changes in life expectancy) to all LTC provisions.

LTC expenditure/GDP




[0-64]

LTC expenditure/GDP

[80+]

total

Total expenditure

total

[65-79]

[80+]

[0-64]

[65-79]




[0-64]

[65-79]

[80+]

[0-64]

[65-79]

[80+]

total

total


[65-79]

[80+]

Total expenditure

total


[0-64]

[65-79]





[0-64]

total

[80+]

[80+]

total


total


[65-79]

[0-64]

[80+]

[0-64]

[65-79]


35

C.1.a - Demographic assumpt ions: high variant ( a )

C.1.a .1 - Population by s ex and age bracket (1 s t of January - thous ands )

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Population [0-19] 11,063 11,366 11,247 11,321 11,294 11,238 11,398 11,587 11,832 12,056 12,257 12,460

Population [20-64] 35,684 36,189 36,329 36,472 36,343 35,671 34,495 33,440 32,844 32,768 32,860 32,977

Population [65+] 11,318 12,153 13,219 14,155 15,315 16,968 18,849 20,517 21,558 21,923 21,946 21,824

Population - Total 58,065 59,707 60,796 61,948 62,952 63,876 64,742 65,544 66,234 66,746 67,063 67,261

Elderly dependency ratio (b) 31.7 33.6 36.4 38.8 42.1 47.6 54.6 61.4 65.6 66.9 66.8 66.2

Youth dependency ratio (c) 31.0 31.4 31.0 31.0 31.1 31.5 33.0 34.7 36.0 36.8 37.3 37.8

Total dependency ratio (d) 62.7 65.0 67.3 69.9 73.2 79.1 87.7 96.0 101.7 103.7 104.1 104.0

Ageing index (e) 102.3 106.9 117.5 125.0 135.6 151.0 165.4 177.1 182.2 181.8 179.1 175.2

C.1.a .2 - Macroeconomic as s umptions

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

GDP in real terms (billions € 2010 ) 1,631 1,606 1,547 1,654 1,816 2,001 2,188 2,380 2,559 2,766 3,015 3,302

GDP per capita (€ 2010 ) 28,648 28,208 25,450 26,697 28,841 31,326 33,788 36,316 38,636 41,442 44,955 49,090

GDP per worker (€ 2010) 72,777 71,279 68,880 70,400 72,882 76,565 81,887 88,188 95,546 103,131 110,930 119,188

Participation rate [15-64] 62.4% 62.0% 63.9% 63.7% 65.3% 67.3% 68.6% 69.6% 69.9% 69.9% 69.8% 69.7%

Unemployment rate 7.7% 8.4% 11.9% 9.6% 8.4% 7.4% 6.6% 6.0% 5.8% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5%

Employment rate [15-64] 57.5% 56.8% 56.1% 57.3% 59.5% 61.9% 63.6% 64.9% 65.3% 65.5% 65.4% 65.3%

C.1.a .3 - Public pens ion expenditure

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Total pension expenditure/GDP 13.4% 14.8% 15.8% 15.2% 15.0% 14.8% 14.9% 15.0% 15.2% 14.8% 14.0% 13.3%

Average pension/GDP per worker 15.8% 17.3% 19.0% 19.3% 19.8% 19.8% 19.5% 19.0% 18.4% 17.8% 17.4% 17.3%

Number of pensions/numbers of workers 84.4% 85.5% 83.3% 78.8% 75.9% 74.7% 76.6% 79.1% 82.5% 82.8% 80.4% 76.6%

Total pension expenditure (billions € 2010 ) 218.4 237.5 241.5 248.2 269.8 291.7 322.4 352.9 384.0 402.9 416.2 432.8

Average pension (€ 2010 ) 11,540 12,337 12,912 13,415 14,273 14,934 15,766 16,540 17,386 18,134 19,060 20,385

Total number of pensioners (thousands) 15,594 15,720 15,259 15,033 15,324 15,923 16,828 17,664 18,381 18,518 18,210 17,730

- of which of 65+ 11,530 11,952 12,734 13,060 13,609 14,471 15,621 16,716 17,555 17,754 17,486 17,057

C.1.a .4 - Public expenditure for hea lth care and LTC

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Health care expenditure 6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 6.5% 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%

- of which of 65+ 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.7% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7%

Social component of LTC 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8%

LTC expenditure 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8%

Health care and LTC expenditure 7.3% 8.1% 7.9% 7.6% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 9.0% 9.3% 9.5% 9.5%

(a) Fertility rate: +0.20 in 2060; life expectancy: +1.9 years for males, +2.3 years for females in 2060; change in the net flow of immigrants: +40,000

annual avarage units, with an increasing profile from about +20,000 units in the first years of the forecasting period to +60,000 units in the last years.

All parameters variations start from 2015.

(b) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(c) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(d) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(e) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].


36

C.1.b - Demographic assumpt ions: low variant ( a )

C.1.b.1 - Population by s ex and age bracket (1 s t of January - thous ands )

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Population [0-19] 11,063 11,366 11,247 11,029 10,609 10,066 9,661 9,440 9,252 9,004 8,680 8,316

Population [20-64] 35,684 36,189 36,329 36,237 35,819 34,825 33,313 31,665 30,374 29,510 28,752 27,954

Population [65+] 11,318 12,153 13,219 13,801 14,551 15,776 17,211 18,415 18,974 18,844 18,379 17,791





Ageing index (e) 102.3 106.9 117.5 125.1 137.2 156.7 178.1 195.1 205.1 209.3 211.7 213.9

C.1.b.2 - Macroeconomic as s umptions

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


GDP per capita (€ 2010 ) 28,648 28,208 25,450 26,894 29,191 31,826 34,396 37,149 39,618 42,787 46,597 50,926

GDP per worker (€ 2010 ) 72,777 71,279 68,880 70,467 73,294 77,373 83,157 89,848 97,767 105,808 114,305 123,531



Employment rate [15-64] 57.5% 56.8% 56.1% 57.3% 59.3% 61.6% 63.7% 65.5% 66.2% 66.6% 66.6% 66.6%

C.1.b.3 - Public pens ion expenditure

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060





Average pension (€ 2010 ) 11,540 12,337 12,912 13,462 14,287 14,979 15,677 16,211 16,799 17,296 18,080 19,222


- of which of 65+ 11,530 11,952 12,716 12,885 13,281 14,050 15,144 16,109 16,625 16,477 15,968 15,438

C.1.b.4 - Public expenditure for hea lth care and LTC

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


- of which of 65+ 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.5% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%


LTC expenditure 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6%


(a) Fertility rate: -0.22 in 2060; life expectancy: -2.1 years for males, -2.5 years for females in 2060; change in the net flow of immigrants: -40,000

annual avarage units, with an increasing profile from about -20,000 units in the first years of the forecasting period to -60,000 units in the last years. All

parameters variations start from 2015.

(b) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(c) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(d) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(e) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].


37

C.2.a - Fert ilit y rat e: +0.2 in 2060 ( a )


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Population [0-19] 11,063 11,366 11,247 11,293 11,223 11,109 11,201 11,317 11,488 11,639 11,762 11,877

Population [20-64] 35,684 36,189 36,329 36,355 36,083 35,252 33,910 32,676 31,886 31,601 31,480 31,386

Population [65+] 11,318 12,153 13,219 13,984 14,946 16,392 18,057 19,502 20,310 20,433 20,217 19,855





Ageing index (e) 102.3 106.9 117.5 123.8 133.2 147.5 161.2 172.3 176.8 175.6 171.9 167.2


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


GDP per capita (€ 2010 ) 28,648 28,208 25,450 26,743 28,888 31,379 33,754 36,286 38,525 41,381 44,849 48,871

GDP per worker (€ 2010 ) 72,777 71,279 68,880 70,431 73,079 76,911 82,465 88,877 96,442 104,087 112,084 120,588



Employment rate [15-64] 57.5% 56.8% 56.3% 57.3% 59.4% 61.8% 63.5% 64.9% 65.4% 65.5% 65.5% 65.3%


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060





Average pension (€ 2010 ) 11,540 12,337 12,912 13,431 14,296 14,948 15,744 16,399 17,147 17,776 18,637 19,916


- of which of 65+ 11,530 11,952 12,725 12,970 13,426 14,253 15,389 16,432 17,101 17,117 16,779 16,294


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


- of which of 65+ 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7%


LTC expenditure 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.6% 2.7%


(a) Parameter variation starts from 2015.

(b) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(c) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(d) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(e) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].


38

C.2.b - Fert ilit y rat e: -0.22 in 2060 ( a )


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Population [0-19] 11,063 11,366 11,247 11,057 10,678 10,187 9,840 9,678 9,546 9,352 9,084 8,779

Population [20-64] 35,684 36,189 36,329 36,355 36,083 35,252 33,910 32,441 31,342 30,682 30,125 29,522

Population [65+] 11,318 12,153 13,219 13,984 14,946 16,392 18,057 19,502 20,310 20,433 20,217 19,855





Ageing index (e) 102.3 106.9 117.5 126.5 140.0 160.9 183.5 201.5 212.7 218.5 222.6 226.2


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


GDP per capita (€ 2010 ) 28,648 28,208 25,450 26,846 29,143 31,847 34,476 37,254 39,715 42,821 46,585 50,956

GDP per worker (€ 2010 ) 72,777 71,279 68,880 70,431 73,079 76,911 82,488 89,016 96,789 104,716 113,056 121,973



Employment rate [15-64] 57.5% 56.8% 56.3% 57.3% 59.4% 61.8% 63.9% 65.6% 66.2% 66.5% 66.6% 66.6%


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060





Average pension (€ 2010 ) 11,540 12,337 12,912 13,431 14,298 14,953 15,752 16,407 17,149 17,761 18,586 19,805


- of which of 65+ 11,530 11,952 12,725 12,970 13,426 14,253 15,389 16,432 17,102 17,122 16,789 16,312


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


- of which of 65+ 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.5% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 7.0% 7.0%


LTC expenditure 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8%



(b) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(c) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(d) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(e) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].


39

C.3.a - Life expectancy: +1.9 years for males, +2.3 years for females in 2060 ( a )


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Population [0-19] 11,063 11,366 11,247 11,182 10,968 10,678 10,564 10,552 10,583 10,570 10,502 10,403

Population [20-64] 35,684 36,189 36,329 36,381 36,133 35,319 33,985 32,643 31,709 31,251 30,928 30,598

Population [65+] 11,318 12,153 13,219 14,151 15,302 16,941 18,802 20,440 21,439 21,742 21,681 21,449





Ageing index (e) 102.3 106.9 117.5 126.5 139.5 158.7 178.0 193.7 202.6 205.7 206.5 206.2


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


GDP per capita (€ 2010 ) 28,648 28,208 25,450 26,738 28,960 31,553 34,134 36,761 39,152 42,031 45,650 49,934

GDP per worker (€ 2010 ) 72,777 71,279 68,880 70,412 72,952 76,700 82,113 88,568 96,146 103,994 112,076 120,640



Employment rate [15-64] 57.5% 56.8% 56.1% 57.3% 59.5% 61.9% 63.8% 65.2% 65.8% 66.0% 65.9% 65.8%


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060





Average pension (€ 2010 ) 11,540 12,337 12,912 13,414 14,270 14,927 15,750 16,509 17,331 18,049 18,932 20,193


- of which of 65+ 11,530 11,952 12,733 13,059 13,604 14,461 15,605 16,691 17,511 17,684 17,383 16,908


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


- of which of 65+ 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.5% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%


LTC expenditure 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%



(b) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(c) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(d) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(e) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].


40

C.3.b - Life expectancy: -2.1 years for males, -2.5 years for females in 2060 ( a )


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Population [0-19] 11,063 11,366 11,247 11,177 10,958 10,663 10,544 10,530 10,559 10,544 10,472 10,371

Population [20-64] 35,684 36,189 36,329 36,326 36,026 35,174 33,819 32,467 31,525 31,054 30,720 30,380

Population [65+] 11,318 12,153 13,219 13,805 14,564 15,802 17,257 18,490 19,090 19,017 18,631 18,144





Ageing index (e) 102.3 106.9 117.5 123.5 132.9 148.2 163.7 175.6 180.8 180.4 177.9 175.0


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


GDP per capita (€ 2010 ) 28,648 28,208 25,450 26,847 29,056 31,568 34,001 36,631 39,006 42,060 45,721 49,862

GDP per worker (€ 2010 ) 72,777 71,279 68,880 70,455 73,222 77,230 82,908 89,420 97,074 104,801 112,941 121,753



Employment rate [15-64] 57.5% 56.8% 56.1% 57.3% 59.3% 61.6% 63.5% 65.1% 65.7% 66.0% 66.0% 65.9%


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060





Average pension (€ 2010 ) 11,540 12,337 12,912 13,462 14,290 14,986 15,694 16,242 16,853 17,378 18,207 19,419


- of which of 65+ 11,530 11,952 12,717 12,887 13,287 14,060 15,163 16,139 16,677 16,556 16,082 15,611


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


- of which of 65+ 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7%


LTC expenditure 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5%



(b) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(c) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(d) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(e) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].


41

C.4.a - Net flow of immigrant s: +40,000 annual average unit s ( a )


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Population [0-19] 11,063 11,366 11,247 11,206 11,029 10,789 10,735 10,788 10,882 10,932 10,929 10,901

Population [20-64] 35,684 36,189 36,329 36,446 36,293 35,603 34,419 33,247 32,500 32,238 32,114 31,981

Population [65+] 11,318 12,153 13,219 13,988 14,958 16,417 18,103 19,576 20,426 20,608 20,473 20,217





Ageing index (e) 102.3 106.9 117.5 124.8 135.6 152.2 168.6 181.5 187.7 188.5 187.3 185.5


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


GDP per capita (€ 2010 ) 28,648 28,208 25,450 26,800 29,009 31,591 34,083 36,738 39,107 42,107 45,734 49,928

GDP per worker (€ 2010 ) 72,777 71,279 68,880 70,419 73,008 76,774 82,254 88,617 96,146 103,784 111,800 120,355



Employment rate [15-64] 57.5% 56.8% 56.3% 57.3% 59.4% 61.8% 63.7% 65.2% 65.8% 66.0% 66.0% 65.9%


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060





Average pension (€ 2010 ) 11,540 12,337 12,912 13,431 14,300 14,960 15,768 16,438 17,204 17,845 18,717 20,005


- of which of 65+ 11,530 11,952 12,725 12,972 13,430 14,262 15,405 16,458 17,147 17,193 16,896 16,470


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


- of which of 65+ 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7%


LTC expenditure 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.6% 2.7%


(a) The change in the net flow of immigrants presents an increasing profile from about +20,000 units in the first years of the forecasting period to

+60,000 units in the last years. Parameter variation starts from 2015.

(b) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(c) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(d) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(e) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].


42

C.4.b - Net flow of immigrant s: -40,000 annual average unit s ( a )


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Population [0-19] 11,063 11,366 11,247 11,155 10,899 10,554 10,377 10,298 10,265 10,188 10,053 9,881

Population [20-64] 35,684 36,189 36,329 36,266 35,875 34,903 33,403 31,884 30,757 30,095 29,567 29,036

Population [65+] 11,318 12,153 13,219 13,979 14,933 16,365 18,010 19,424 20,190 20,253 19,954 19,486





Ageing index (e) 102.3 106.9 117.5 125.3 137.0 155.1 173.6 188.6 196.7 198.8 198.5 197.2


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


GDP per capita (€ 2010 ) 28,648 28,208 25,450 26,784 29,008 31,609 34,103 36,736 39,041 41,977 45,560 49,747

GDP per worker (€ 2010 ) 72,777 71,279 68,880 70,443 73,150 77,051 82,704 89,281 97,089 105,016 113,324 122,171



Employment rate [15-64] 57.5% 56.8% 56.3% 57.3% 59.4% 61.8% 63.6% 65.2% 65.8% 66.0% 66.0% 65.9%


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060





Average pension (€ 2010 ) 11,540 12,337 12,912 13,431 14,294 14,941 15,728 16,367 17,092 17,694 18,509 19,724


- of which of 65+ 11,530 11,952 12,725 12,969 13,421 14,243 15,371 16,405 17,054 17,043 16,667 16,129


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


- of which of 65+ 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%


LTC expenditure 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8%


(a) The change in the net flow of immigrants presents an increasing profile from about -20,000 units in the first years of the forecasting period to -60,000

units in the last years. Parameter variation starts from 2015.

(b) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(c) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(d) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(e) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].


43

C.5.a - Part icipat ion rat es: +2 percentage point s in 2040


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Population [0-19] 11,063 11,366 11,247 11,180 10,964 10,671 10,556 10,543 10,573 10,560 10,490 10,390

Population [20-64] 35,684 36,189 36,329 36,355 36,083 35,252 33,910 32,564 31,627 31,164 30,838 30,504

Population [65+] 11,318 12,153 13,219 13,984 14,946 16,392 18,057 19,502 20,310 20,433 20,217 19,855


Elderly dependency ratio (a) 31.7 33.6 36.4 38.5 41.4 46.5 53.3 59.9 64.2 65.6 65.6 65.1

Youth dependency ratio (b) 31.0 31.4 31.0 30.8 30.4 30.3 31.1 32.4 33.4 33.9 34.0 34.1

Total dependency ratio (c) 62.7 65.0 67.3 69.2 71.8 76.8 84.4 92.3 97.6 99.4 99.6 99.2

Ageing index (d) 102.3 106.9 117.5 125.1 136.3 153.6 171.1 185.0 192.1 193.5 192.7 191.1


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


GDP per capita (€ 2010 ) 28,648 28,208 25,481 26,993 29,375 32,081 34,713 37,517 40,018 43,141 46,891 51,232

GDP per worker (€ 2010 ) 72,777 71,279 68,880 70,396 72,878 76,681 82,200 88,616 96,231 104,008 112,206 120,947



Employment rate [15-64] 57.5% 56.8% 56.3% 57.8% 60.4% 63.0% 65.2% 67.0% 67.7% 67.9% 67.9% 67.8%


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060





Average pension (€ 2010 ) 11,540 12,337 12,912 13,433 14,311 14,982 15,803 16,485 17,260 17,905 18,772 20,046


- of which of 65+ 11,530 11,952 12,725 12,970 13,425 14,252 15,384 16,423 17,087 17,101 16,770 16,296


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


- of which of 65+ 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%


LTC expenditure 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.7%


(a) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(b) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(c) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(d) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].


44

C.5.b - Part icipat ion rat es: -2 percentage point s in 2040


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Population [0-19] 11,063 11,366 11,247 11,180 10,964 10,671 10,556 10,543 10,573 10,560 10,490 10,390

Population [20-64] 35,684 36,189 36,329 36,355 36,083 35,252 33,910 32,564 31,627 31,164 30,838 30,504

Population [65+] 11,318 12,153 13,219 13,984 14,946 16,392 18,057 19,502 20,310 20,433 20,217 19,855





Ageing index (d) 102.3 106.9 117.5 125.1 136.3 153.6 171.1 185.0 192.1 193.5 192.7 191.1


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


GDP per capita (€ 2010 ) 28,648 28,208 25,418 26,591 28,643 31,119 33,474 35,959 38,133 40,948 44,406 48,441

GDP per worker (€ 2010 ) 72,777 71,279 68,880 70,466 73,287 77,151 82,766 89,290 97,010 104,788 112,905 121,547



Employment rate [15-64] 57.5% 56.8% 56.3% 56.9% 58.5% 60.6% 62.1% 63.4% 63.9% 64.1% 64.1% 64.0%


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060





Average pension (€ 2010 ) 11,540 12,337 12,912 13,429 14,283 14,919 15,692 16,320 17,037 17,634 18,455 19,685


- of which of 65+ 11,530 11,952 12,725 12,970 13,426 14,254 15,393 16,442 17,117 17,138 16,799 16,306


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


- of which of 65+ 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%


LTC expenditure 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8%


(a) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(b) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(c) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(d) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].


45

C.6.a - Product ivit y: +0.25% per year


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Population [0-19] 11,063 11,366 11,247 11,180 10,964 10,671 10,556 10,543 10,573 10,560 10,490 10,390

Population [20-64] 35,684 36,189 36,329 36,355 36,083 35,252 33,910 32,564 31,627 31,164 30,838 30,504

Population [65+] 11,318 12,153 13,219 13,984 14,946 16,392 18,057 19,502 20,310 20,433 20,217 19,855





Ageing index (d) 102.3 106.9 117.5 125.1 136.3 153.6 171.1 185.0 192.1 193.5 192.7 191.1


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


GDP per capita (€ 2010 ) 28,648 28,208 25,450 26,992 29,590 32,634 35,643 38,882 41,865 45,601 50,123 55,398

GDP per worker (€ 2010 ) 72,777 71,279 68,880 70,958 74,544 79,428 86,230 94,142 103,516 113,232 123,591 134,784



Employment rate [15-64] 57.5% 56.8% 56.3% 57.3% 59.4% 61.8% 63.7% 65.2% 65.8% 66.0% 66.0% 65.9%


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060





Average pension (€ 2010 ) 11,540 12,337 12,912 13,434 14,331 15,052 15,964 16,771 17,711 18,543 19,647 21,234


- of which of 65+ 11,530 11,952 12,725 12,970 13,426 14,253 15,389 16,434 17,104 17,122 16,787 16,306


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


- of which of 65+ 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.8% 6.9% 6.9% 6.8%


LTC expenditure 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7%


(a) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(b) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(c) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(d) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].


46

C.6.b - Product ivit y: -0.25% per year


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Population [0-19] 11,063 11,366 11,247 11,180 10,964 10,671 10,556 10,543 10,573 10,560 10,490 10,390

Population [20-64] 35,684 36,189 36,329 36,355 36,083 35,252 33,910 32,564 31,627 31,164 30,838 30,504

Population [65+] 11,318 12,153 13,219 13,984 14,946 16,392 18,057 19,502 20,310 20,433 20,217 19,855





Ageing index (d) 102.3 106.9 117.5 125.1 136.3 153.6 171.1 185.0 192.1 193.5 192.7 191.1


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


GDP per capita (€ 2010 ) 28,648 28,208 25,450 26,593 28,438 30,596 32,605 34,705 36,462 38,752 41,559 44,816

GDP per worker (€ 2010 ) 72,777 71,279 68,880 69,907 71,640 74,469 78,877 84,020 90,142 96,206 102,452 109,012



Employment rate [15-64] 57.5% 56.8% 56.3% 57.3% 59.4% 61.8% 63.7% 65.2% 65.8% 66.0% 66.0% 65.9%


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060





Average pension (€ 2010 ) 11,540 12,337 12,912 13,428 14,263 14,851 15,537 16,047 16,610 17,036 17,642 18,592


- of which of 65+ 11,530 11,952 12,725 12,970 13,426 14,253 15,388 16,431 17,099 17,117 16,781 16,299


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


- of which of 65+ 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%


LTC expenditure 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.7%


(a) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(b) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(c) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(d) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].


47

C.7.a - Unemployment rat e: +2 percentage point s in 2060


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Population [0-19] 11,063 11,366 11,247 11,180 10,964 10,671 10,556 10,543 10,573 10,560 10,490 10,390

Population [20-64] 35,684 36,189 36,329 36,355 36,083 35,252 33,910 32,564 31,627 31,164 30,838 30,504

Population [65+] 11,318 12,153 13,219 13,984 14,946 16,392 18,057 19,502 20,310 20,433 20,217 19,855





Ageing index (d) 102.3 106.9 117.5 125.1 136.3 153.6 171.1 185.0 192.1 193.5 192.7 191.1


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


GDP per capita (€ 2010 ) 28,648 28,208 25,450 26,791 29,008 31,580 33,863 36,300 38,510 41,349 44,823 48,881

GDP per worker (€ 2010 ) 72,777 71,279 68,880 70,432 73,080 76,933 82,707 89,316 97,002 104,781 112,918 121,576



Employment rate [15-64] 57.5% 56.8% 56.3% 57.3% 59.4% 61.7% 63.0% 64.1% 64.4% 64.5% 64.5% 64.3%


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060





Average pension (€ 2010 ) 11,540 12,337 12,912 13,431 14,297 14,950 15,739 16,375 17,093 17,688 18,505 19,730


- of which of 65+ 11,530 11,952 12,725 12,970 13,426 14,253 15,389 16,434 17,107 17,129 16,796 16,319


2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060


- of which of 65+ 5.7% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.8%


LTC expenditure 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8%


(a) pop.[65+]/pop.[20-64].

(b) pop.[0-19]/pop.[20-64].

(c) (pop.[0-19]+pop.[65+])/pop.[20-64].

(d) pop.[65+]/pop.[0-19].


48

D.1.1.1.a - Private employee

Age (2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 69.8 69.6 64.9 64.1 63.8 57.7 58.2 58.8 59.3 59.6 59.7

Base case+2 69.8 72.4 68.2 68.1 68.5 61.7 62.2 62.8 63.4 63.7 63.8

Base case 73.7 76.5 68.7 67.9 67.6 61.1 61.3 61.9 62.6 63.0 63.1

Base case+2 73.7 77.1 72.1 72.0 72.3 65.2 65.5 66.2 66.9 67.4 67.5

Base case 77.5 80.5 72.6 71.8 71.4 64.5 64.5 65.1 65.8 66.3 66.6

Base case+2 77.5 81.0 75.9 75.8 76.2 68.9 69.0 69.5 70.3 70.9 71.2

Base case 77.5 84.5 76.4 75.6 75.2 75.2 67.8 68.2 68.9 69.6 70.0

Base case+2 77.5 85.0 79.8 79.6 80.0 80.7 72.5 72.9 73.7 74.4 74.9

D.1.1.1.b - Se lf-employed

Age ( 3 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 68.5 55.1 48.8 45.7 43.0 43.5 44.9 46.4 47.7 48.1 48.1

Base case+2 68.5 56.9 51.0 48.4 46.2 46.9 48.4 50.1 51.4 51.9 52.0

Base case 72.2 74.0 52.6 49.4 46.8 45.7 47.0 48.5 50.1 50.8 50.9

Base case+2 72.2 74.3 54.7 52.1 50.0 49.3 50.7 52.4 54.0 54.8 55.0

Base case 76.0 77.9 56.4 53.1 50.5 48.0 49.2 50.7 52.3 53.4 53.7

Base case+2 76.0 78.3 58.5 55.8 53.7 51.8 53.0 54.6 56.4 57.6 58.0

Base case 75.9 81.9 60.2 56.9 54.3 51.8 51.4 52.8 54.4 55.9 56.5

Base case+2 75.9 82.3 62.3 59.5 57.4 55.5 55.4 56.9 58.7 60.3 61.0

contribution period: 38 years








D.1.1.1 - Gross replacement rat es of the public pension syst em under the nat ional baseline

scenario : base case (1 )

(2) In the base case, the retirement age is aligned to the minimum requirement for an old age pension for workers

enrolled before 1/1/1996 (DB and mixed regimes), and to the minimum requirement for early retirement (three years lower

than the old age one), for workers enrolled thereafter (NDC regime).(3) In the base case, the retirement age is aligned to the minimum requirement for old age pension in all three regimes

(DB, mixed and NDC).

(1) Historical data for the dynamics of individual wages/earnings are hypothesized as equal to the growth rate of average

gross wage per dependent worker, and those for the forecasting period beginning in 2017 as equal to the growth rate of

nominal GDP per worker. For 2016, GDP, inflation, and average gross wage per dependent worker, used as a reference for

earnings, have been taken from the macroeconomic scenario worked out for the 2016-Economic and Financial Document.


49


Age(2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 69.8 69.6 65.7 66.1 67.1 61.5 62.7 63.8 64.7 65.0 65.1

Base case+2 69.8 72.4 69.1 70.3 72.1 65.8 67.0 68.2 69.1 69.5 69.6

Base case 73.7 76.5 69.6 70.0 71.1 65.2 66.2 67.4 68.5 69.1 69.2

Base case+2 73.7 77.1 72.9 74.2 76.1 69.7 70.8 72.0 73.2 73.9 74.0

Base case 77.5 80.5 73.4 73.8 74.9 69.0 69.8 71.0 72.2 73.1 73.4

Base case+2 77.5 81.0 76.8 78.0 80.0 73.7 74.6 75.9 77.2 78.1 78.5

Base case 77.5 84.5 77.3 77.7 78.8 80.3 73.5 74.6 75.9 77.0 77.6

Base case+2 77.5 85.0 80.7 81.9 83.8 86.3 78.5 79.8 81.2 82.4 83.0


Age(3 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 68.5 55.1 49.5 47.2 45.2 46.3 48.3 50.4 52.0 52.5 52.5

Base case+2 68.5 56.9 51.6 49.9 48.5 49.9 52.1 54.3 56.0 56.6 56.7

Base case 72.2 74.0 53.3 51.0 49.2 48.7 50.7 52.8 54.8 55.7 55.9

Base case+2 72.2 74.3 55.4 53.7 52.5 52.5 54.6 56.9 59.1 60.1 60.3

Base case 76.0 77.9 57.1 54.7 53.0 51.3 53.1 55.2 57.4 58.8 59.2

Base case+2 76.0 78.3 59.3 57.5 56.3 55.3 57.2 59.5 61.9 63.5 63.9

Base case 75.9 81.9 60.9 58.5 56.8 55.3 55.6 57.6 59.9 61.8 62.6

Base case+2 75.9 82.3 63.1 61.3 60.1 59.3 59.9 62.2 64.6 66.7 67.6








scenario : base case (1 ) with career growth reduced by 0.5%












50


Age(2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 69.8 69.6 64.1 62.1 60.7 54.2 54.1 54.3 54.6 54.8 54.8

Base case+2 69.8 72.4 67.4 66.1 65.2 57.9 57.8 58.0 58.3 58.6 58.6

Base case 73.7 76.5 67.9 65.9 64.3 57.3 56.9 57.0 57.3 57.6 57.7

Base case+2 73.7 77.1 71.2 69.9 68.8 61.2 60.8 60.9 61.3 61.6 61.7

Base case 77.5 80.5 71.7 69.8 68.1 60.4 59.8 59.8 60.1 60.4 60.6

Base case+2 77.5 81.0 75.0 73.7 72.6 64.6 63.9 63.9 64.2 64.6 64.8

Base case 77.5 84.5 75.5 73.6 71.9 70.4 62.7 62.5 62.7 63.1 63.4

Base case+2 77.5 85.0 78.8 77.5 76.4 75.6 67.0 66.8 67.1 67.5 67.8


Age(3 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 68.5 55.1 48.2 44.3 41.0 40.9 41.8 42.9 43.9 44.2 44.3

Base case+2 68.5 56.9 50.3 46.9 44.0 44.1 45.1 46.3 47.3 47.7 47.8

Base case 72.2 74.0 51.9 48.0 44.6 42.9 43.7 44.8 45.9 46.5 46.6

Base case+2 72.2 74.3 54.1 50.5 47.6 46.3 47.1 48.3 49.5 50.1 50.3

Base case 76.0 77.9 55.7 51.6 48.2 45.1 45.6 46.6 47.8 48.6 48.9

Base case+2 76.0 78.3 57.8 54.2 51.3 48.6 49.2 50.3 51.6 52.5 52.8

Base case 75.9 81.9 59.4 55.2 51.9 48.6 47.6 48.5 49.6 50.7 51.2

Base case+2 75.9 82.3 61.5 57.8 54.9 52.1 51.3 52.3 53.5 54.7 55.3

(3) In the base case, the retirement age is aligned to the minimum requirement for old age pension in all three regimes




scenario : base case (1 ) with career growth increased by 0.5%








than the old age one), for workers enrolled thereafter (NDC regime).








51

D.1.2.1.a - Private employee - W ithout dependent s pous e

Age(2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 79.1 78.8 74.3 73.5 73.2 67.3 67.8 68.4 68.9 69.1 69.2

Base case+2 79.1 81.6 77.5 77.4 77.8 71.1 71.7 72.3 72.8 73.1 73.2

Base case 82.8 85.5 78.0 77.2 76.9 70.6 70.8 71.4 72.0 72.4 72.5

Base case+2 82.8 86.1 81.2 81.1 81.5 74.6 74.9 75.5 76.2 76.7 76.8

Base case 86.6 89.4 81.7 80.9 80.6 73.9 73.9 74.4 75.1 75.6 75.9

Base case+2 86.6 89.9 85.0 84.9 85.2 78.2 78.2 78.8 79.5 80.1 80.4

Base case 86.6 93.3 85.4 84.7 84.3 84.2 77.1 77.5 78.2 78.8 79.2

Base case+2 86.6 93.8 88.7 88.6 88.9 89.6 81.6 82.0 82.8 83.5 84.0

D.1.2.1.b - Se lf-employed - W ithout dependent s pous e

Age(3 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 89.0 76.5 70.3 66.7 63.6 64.1 65.8 67.6 69.0 69.5 69.5

Base case+2 89.0 78.5 72.8 69.8 67.3 68.0 69.9 71.8 73.3 73.9 74.0

Base case 93.2 98.0 74.7 71.0 68.0 66.7 68.3 70.0 71.8 72.6 72.8

Base case+2 93.2 98.4 77.2 74.1 71.7 70.9 72.5 74.4 76.3 77.3 77.5

Base case 97.3 102.5 79.1 75.3 72.3 69.4 70.7 72.5 74.4 75.6 76.0

Base case+2 97.3 103.0 81.6 78.4 76.0 73.8 75.2 77.1 79.1 80.5 81.0

Base case 97.2 107.1 83.5 79.7 76.6 73.7 73.3 74.9 76.8 78.5 79.2

Base case+2 97.2 107.5 86.0 82.7 80.3 78.1 78.0 79.7 81.8 83.6 84.5

D.1.2.1 - Net replacement rat es of the public pension syst em under the nat ional baseline



















52


Age(2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 79.1 78.8 75.8 76.2 77.1 71.9 73.0 74.0 74.8 75.2 75.2

Base case+2 79.1 81.6 79.0 80.2 81.9 75.9 77.1 78.2 79.1 79.5 79.5

Base case 82.8 85.5 79.5 79.9 80.9 75.4 76.4 77.5 78.5 79.0 79.2

Base case+2 82.8 86.1 82.7 83.9 85.7 79.6 80.7 81.8 82.9 83.6 83.7

Base case 86.6 89.4 83.2 83.6 84.6 79.0 79.8 80.9 82.1 82.8 83.1

Base case+2 86.6 89.9 86.4 87.6 89.4 83.5 84.3 85.5 86.8 87.6 88.0

Base case 86.6 93.3 86.9 87.3 88.3 89.8 83.3 84.4 85.6 86.6 87.1

Base case+2 86.6 93.8 90.1 91.2 93.1 95.4 88.0 89.2 90.5 91.7 92.3


Age(3 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 89.0 76.5 72.3 69.7 67.4 68.6 71.0 73.3 75.1 75.7 75.7

Base case+2 89.0 78.5 74.7 72.8 71.2 72.7 75.3 77.8 79.7 80.4 80.5

Base case 93.2 98.0 76.7 74.0 72.0 71.5 73.7 76.1 78.4 79.4 79.6

Base case+2 93.2 98.4 79.1 77.1 75.8 75.8 78.2 80.8 83.2 84.4 84.6

Base case 97.3 102.5 81.1 78.4 76.4 74.4 76.5 78.9 81.4 83.0 83.5

Base case+2 97.3 103.0 83.5 81.5 80.2 79.0 81.2 83.8 86.5 88.3 88.8

Base case 97.2 107.1 85.4 82.7 80.8 79.0 79.4 81.7 84.3 86.5 87.3

Base case+2 97.2 107.5 87.9 85.8 84.5 83.6 84.3 86.8 89.6 92.0 93.0




















53


Age(2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 79.1 78.8 74.7 72.8 71.3 64.7 64.6 64.8 65.1 65.3 65.4

Base case+2 79.1 81.6 78.1 76.7 75.9 68.5 68.4 68.6 68.9 69.2 69.2

Base case 82.8 85.5 78.7 76.7 75.0 67.9 67.5 67.6 68.0 68.3 68.4

Base case+2 82.8 86.1 82.0 80.7 79.6 71.9 71.5 71.6 72.0 72.3 72.4

Base case 86.6 89.4 82.6 80.6 78.9 71.2 70.5 70.5 70.8 71.1 71.3

Base case+2 86.6 89.9 86.0 84.6 83.6 75.4 74.7 74.7 75.0 75.4 75.6

Base case 86.6 93.3 86.6 84.6 82.9 81.4 73.6 73.4 73.6 74.0 74.3

Base case+2 86.6 93.8 89.7 88.5 87.5 86.7 78.0 77.7 78.0 78.4 78.8


Age(3 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 89.0 76.5 68.6 64.0 60.0 59.9 61.0 62.3 63.4 63.8 63.9

Base case+2 89.0 78.5 71.1 67.0 63.6 63.7 64.9 66.3 67.5 67.9 68.0

Base case 93.2 98.0 72.9 68.2 64.2 62.3 63.2 64.4 65.8 66.5 66.6

Base case+2 93.2 98.4 75.4 71.3 67.8 66.2 67.2 68.6 70.1 70.8 71.0

Base case 97.3 102.5 77.3 72.5 68.5 64.7 65.4 66.6 68.0 69.0 69.3

Base case+2 97.3 103.0 79.8 75.5 72.1 68.9 69.6 70.9 72.4 73.5 73.9

Base case 97.2 107.1 81.7 76.7 72.7 68.8 67.7 68.7 70.1 71.4 71.9

Base case+2 97.2 107.5 84.2 79.8 76.3 73.0 72.1 73.2 74.7 76.1 76.8












gross wage per dependent worker, and those for the forecasting period beginning in 2017as equal to the growth rate of








54


Age (2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 69.8 72.8 70.1 71.2 72.9 67.9 70.2 71.8 72.0 72.4 72.5

Base case+2 69.8 75.8 73.8 75.8 78.3 72.5 74.9 76.6 76.9 77.3 77.4

Base case 73.7 79.7 73.9 75.1 76.7 71.2 73.3 75.8 76.1 76.5 76.7

Base case+2 73.7 80.5 77.6 79.7 82.1 76.0 78.3 80.9 81.3 81.8 81.9

Base case 77.5 83.7 77.8 78.9 80.5 74.7 76.5 79.0 80.2 80.6 80.9

Base case+2 77.5 84.4 81.5 83.5 85.9 79.7 81.7 84.3 85.6 86.1 86.4

Base case 77.5 87.6 81.6 82.8 84.3 86.3 79.8 82.1 84.2 84.7 85.1

Base case+2 77.5 88.4 85.3 87.3 89.8 92.7 85.2 87.7 90.0 90.5 90.9


Age(3 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 68.5 58.3 54.1 52.9 52.1 54.6 58.1 60.7 61.7 62.1 62.2

Base case+2 68.5 60.3 56.6 56.1 56.0 58.8 62.5 65.4 66.4 66.9 67.1

Base case 72.2 77.1 57.8 56.6 55.9 56.9 60.2 63.8 65.0 65.7 65.8

Base case+2 72.2 77.7 60.3 59.8 59.8 61.2 64.8 68.7 70.0 70.8 71.0

Base case 76.0 81.1 61.6 60.3 59.6 59.2 62.3 65.9 68.1 69.1 69.5

Base case+2 76.0 81.7 64.1 63.5 63.5 63.7 67.1 71.0 73.4 74.5 74.9

Base case 75.9 85.1 65.4 64.0 63.4 62.9 64.5 68.0 71.2 72.5 73.1

Base case+2 75.9 85.7 67.9 67.2 67.2 67.5 69.5 73.3 76.7 78.1 78.8





The contribution rate to the private pension system is 6.91%. The real return rate from the private pension system, gross

of administrative expenses and tax, has been set at 3%. Administrative expenses are taken to account for 0.5

percentage points of the interest rate. The tax rate is 20% of the nominal rate of return, net of administrative expenses.

D.2.1.1 - Gross replacement rat es of the public and privat e pension syst ems under the

nat ional baseline scenario : base case (1 )















55

D.2.2.1.a - Priva te employee - W ithout dependent s pous e

Age(2)

2010( 3 ) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 79.1 82.8 80.9 82.7 85.2 80.9 84.1 86.1 86.3 86.6 86.7

Base case+2 79.1 85.9 84.6 87.3 90.7 85.6 89.0 91.1 91.3 91.7 91.8

Base case 82.8 89.5 84.6 86.5 88.9 84.2 87.1 90.4 90.6 91.0 91.1

Base case+2 82.8 90.3 88.3 91.0 94.3 89.1 92.2 95.7 95.9 96.4 96.5

Base case 86.6 93.4 88.3 90.2 92.6 87.5 90.2 93.5 94.9 95.3 95.5

Base case+2 86.6 94.2 92.0 94.8 98.1 92.7 95.5 99.0 100.5 101.0 101.3

Base case 86.6 97.2 92.1 93.9 96.3 99.2 93.4 96.5 99.2 99.6 99.9

Base case+2 86.6 98.1 95.8 98.5 101.8 105.6 98.9 102.3 105.2 105.6 106.0


Age( 4 )

2010( 3 ) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 96.5 88.2 85.2 84.7 84.9 89.3 94.9 99.0 100.0 100.7 100.8

Base case+2 96.5 90.8 88.5 88.9 90.0 94.9 101.0 105.4 106.6 107.3 107.4

Base case 101.0 111.6 89.9 89.4 89.7 92.1 97.6 103.4 104.7 105.6 105.8

Base case+2 101.0 112.4 93.3 93.6 94.8 98.0 103.9 110.2 111.6 112.6 112.9

Base case 105.5 116.5 94.7 94.1 94.3 95.1 100.3 106.1 109.3 110.5 110.9

Base case+2 105.5 117.4 98.0 98.3 99.5 101.2 106.8 113.1 116.5 117.8 118.3

Base case 105.3 121.5 99.5 98.8 99.0 99.8 103.1 108.8 113.8 115.2 116.0

Base case+2 105.3 122.3 102.8 103.0 104.2 105.9 109.8 116.0 121.4 123.0 123.8








The tax legislation currently in force has been applied. The contribution rate to the private pension system is 6.91%. The

real return rate from the private pension system, gross of administrative expenses and tax, has been set at 3%.

Administrative expenses are taken to account for 0.5 percentage points of the interest rate. The tax rate is 20% of the

nominal rate of return, net of administrative expenses.




(3) In 2010, the calculation of net replacement rates takes into account the deductibility of contributions paid to the

private pension system.

D.2.2.1 - Net replacement rat es of t he public and privat e pension syst ems under t he

nat ional base line scenario : base case( 1 )









56

E.1.1.1.a - Private employee

Age(2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 69.8 69.6 65.8 65.0 64.8 58.5 59.0 59.7 60.2 60.3 60.4

Base case+2 69.8 72.4 69.3 69.2 69.8 62.5 63.1 63.9 64.5 64.6 64.7

Base case 73.7 76.5 69.6 68.9 68.6 61.8 62.2 62.8 63.5 63.7 63.8

Base case+2 73.7 77.1 73.1 73.1 73.6 66.2 66.5 67.2 68.0 68.3 68.4

Base case 77.5 80.5 73.5 72.7 72.5 65.3 65.4 66.0 66.7 67.1 67.3

Base case+2 77.5 81.0 77.0 76.9 77.5 69.9 70.0 70.7 71.4 71.8 72.1

Base case 77.5 84.5 77.3 76.5 76.3 76.2 68.7 69.2 69.9 70.4 70.7

Base case+2 77.5 85.0 80.8 80.8 81.3 82.0 73.6 74.1 74.9 75.4 75.8

E.1.1.1.b - Se lf-employed

Age(3 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 68.5 55.1 49.4 46.3 43.8 44.1 45.7 47.3 48.5 48.8 48.8

Base case+2 68.5 56.9 51.7 49.1 47.1 47.6 49.3 51.1 52.5 52.8 52.8

Base case 72.2 74.0 53.2 50.0 47.5 46.4 47.8 49.4 51.0 51.5 51.6

Base case+2 72.2 74.3 55.4 52.8 50.9 50.1 51.6 53.4 55.1 55.7 55.9

Base case 76.0 77.9 57.0 53.7 51.2 48.8 50.0 51.5 53.2 54.2 54.4

Base case+2 76.0 78.3 59.2 56.5 54.6 52.6 54.0 55.7 57.5 58.6 58.9

Base case 75.9 81.9 60.7 57.5 55.0 52.5 52.2 53.7 55.4 56.7 57.2

Base case+2 75.9 82.3 63.0 60.2 58.3 56.4 56.4 58.0 59.8 61.3 61.9










E.1.1.1 - Gross replacement rat es of the public pension syst em under the EPC-WGA baseline










57


Age(2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 69.8 69.6 66.6 67.1 68.2 62.3 63.6 64.8 65.7 65.8 65.8

Base case+2 69.8 72.4 70.1 71.4 73.5 66.7 68.0 69.3 70.3 70.5 70.5

Base case 73.7 76.5 70.5 70.9 72.2 66.0 67.1 68.4 69.5 69.9 70.0

Base case+2 73.7 77.1 74.0 75.3 77.4 70.6 71.8 73.2 74.4 74.8 75.0

Base case 77.5 80.5 74.4 74.8 76.1 69.8 70.7 72.0 73.3 73.9 74.2

Base case+2 77.5 81.0 77.9 79.2 81.3 74.7 75.7 77.1 78.5 79.1 79.4

Base case 77.5 84.5 78.2 78.7 79.9 81.4 74.5 75.7 77.0 77.9 78.4

Base case+2 77.5 85.0 81.8 83.1 85.2 87.6 79.7 81.0 82.5 83.4 83.9


Age(3 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 68.5 55.1 50.0 47.8 46.0 47.0 49.1 51.3 52.9 53.2 53.3

Base case+2 68.5 56.9 52.3 50.7 49.4 50.7 53.0 55.4 57.2 57.6 57.6

Base case 72.2 74.0 53.9 51.6 49.9 49.5 51.5 53.7 55.7 56.5 56.6

Base case+2 72.2 74.3 56.1 54.4 53.4 53.4 55.6 58.0 60.3 61.1 61.2

Base case 76.0 77.9 57.7 55.4 53.7 52.0 53.9 56.2 58.4 59.6 60.0

Base case+2 76.0 78.3 59.9 58.2 57.2 56.2 58.2 60.7 63.1 64.5 64.9

Base case 75.9 81.9 61.5 59.2 57.5 56.0 56.4 58.6 60.9 62.7 63.4

Base case+2 75.9 82.3 63.8 62.0 61.0 60.1 61.0 63.3 65.8 67.8 68.6




















58


Age(2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 69.8 69.6 65.0 63.1 61.7 54.9 54.9 55.1 55.4 55.5 55.5

Base case+2 69.8 72.4 68.4 67.2 66.5 58.7 58.7 59.0 59.3 59.4 59.4

Base case 73.7 76.5 68.8 66.9 65.3 58.0 57.7 57.9 58.2 58.3 58.4

Base case+2 73.7 77.1 72.3 70.9 70.0 62.0 61.7 61.9 62.3 62.5 62.6

Base case 77.5 80.5 72.6 70.7 69.1 61.2 60.6 60.7 61.0 61.1 61.3

Base case+2 77.5 81.0 76.1 74.8 73.8 65.5 64.8 64.9 65.3 65.4 65.6

Base case 77.5 84.5 76.4 74.5 72.9 71.3 63.6 63.4 63.7 63.9 64.1

Base case+2 77.5 85.0 79.9 78.6 77.6 76.8 68.0 67.9 68.2 68.4 68.7


Age(3 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 68.5 55.1 48.8 44.9 41.7 41.5 42.5 43.7 44.7 44.9 44.9

Base case+2 68.5 56.9 51.0 47.6 44.8 44.8 45.9 47.2 48.3 48.5 48.6

Base case 72.2 74.0 52.5 48.6 45.3 43.6 44.4 45.6 46.7 47.2 47.2

Base case+2 72.2 74.3 54.7 51.2 48.4 47.1 48.0 49.2 50.5 51.0 51.1

Base case 76.0 77.9 56.2 52.2 48.9 45.7 46.4 47.4 48.7 49.3 49.6

Base case+2 76.0 78.3 58.5 54.9 52.1 49.4 50.1 51.3 52.6 53.4 53.6

Base case 75.9 81.9 60.0 55.8 52.5 49.2 48.4 49.3 50.5 51.4 51.9

Base case+2 75.9 82.3 62.2 58.5 55.7 52.9 52.2 53.3 54.6 55.6 56.1




















59

E.1.2.1.a - Private employee - W ithout dependent s pous e

Age(2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 79.1 78.8 75.1 74.4 74.2 68.0 68.6 69.2 69.8 69.9 69.9

Base case+2 79.1 81.6 78.5 78.5 79.1 72.0 72.6 73.3 73.9 74.0 74.0

Base case 82.8 85.5 78.9 78.1 77.9 71.3 71.7 72.3 72.9 73.2 73.2

Base case+2 82.8 86.1 82.3 82.2 82.7 75.5 75.9 76.6 77.3 77.5 77.6

Base case 86.6 89.4 82.6 81.8 81.6 74.7 74.8 75.4 76.1 76.4 76.6

Base case+2 86.6 89.9 86.0 85.9 86.5 79.1 79.2 79.9 80.6 81.0 81.2

Base case 86.6 93.3 86.3 85.6 85.3 85.2 78.0 78.5 79.1 79.6 80.0

Base case+2 86.6 93.8 89.7 89.7 90.2 90.8 82.7 83.2 83.9 84.4 84.8

E.1.2.1.b - Se lf-employed - W ithout dependent s pous e

Age(3 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 89.0 76.5 71.0 67.4 64.4 64.9 66.6 68.5 70.0 70.3 70.3

Base case+2 89.0 78.5 73.6 70.6 68.3 68.9 70.9 73.0 74.6 74.9 75.0

Base case 93.2 98.0 75.4 71.7 68.8 67.5 69.1 71.0 72.8 73.5 73.6

Base case+2 93.2 98.4 78.0 74.9 72.7 71.8 73.6 75.6 77.6 78.4 78.5

Base case 97.3 102.5 79.8 76.0 73.1 70.2 71.6 73.5 75.4 76.5 76.8

Base case+2 97.3 103.0 82.4 79.2 77.0 74.7 76.3 78.3 80.4 81.6 82.0

Base case 97.2 107.1 84.2 80.3 77.4 74.6 74.2 76.0 77.9 79.4 80.1

Base case+2 97.2 107.5 86.8 83.6 81.3 79.1 79.1 81.0 83.1 84.8 85.5

E.1.2.1 - Net replacement rat es of the public pension syst em under the EPC-WGA baseline



















60


Age(2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 79.1 78.8 76.7 77.1 78.2 72.6 73.8 74.9 75.8 75.9 76.0

Base case+2 79.1 81.6 80.0 81.3 83.2 76.7 78.0 79.3 80.2 80.4 80.4

Base case 82.8 85.5 80.4 80.8 82.0 76.2 77.2 78.4 79.4 79.8 79.9

Base case+2 82.8 86.1 83.7 85.0 87.0 80.5 81.7 83.0 84.1 84.5 84.6

Base case 86.6 89.4 84.1 84.5 85.7 79.8 80.7 81.9 83.1 83.6 83.9

Base case+2 86.6 89.9 87.4 88.6 90.7 84.4 85.3 86.7 88.0 88.6 88.9

Base case 86.6 93.3 87.8 88.2 89.4 90.8 84.2 85.4 86.6 87.4 87.9

Base case+2 86.6 93.8 91.1 92.3 94.4 96.6 89.1 90.4 91.8 92.6 93.2


Age(3 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 89.0 76.5 72.9 70.4 68.3 69.4 71.9 74.3 76.2 76.5 76.6

Base case+2 89.0 78.5 75.5 73.6 72.2 73.7 76.3 79.0 81.0 81.5 81.5

Base case 93.2 98.0 77.3 74.7 72.9 72.3 74.6 77.1 79.4 80.3 80.4

Base case+2 93.2 98.4 79.9 78.0 76.8 76.8 79.3 82.0 84.6 85.5 85.7

Base case 97.3 102.5 81.7 79.1 77.2 75.3 77.5 80.0 82.5 83.9 84.3

Base case+2 97.3 103.0 84.3 82.3 81.2 80.0 82.4 85.1 87.9 89.4 89.9

Base case 97.2 107.1 86.1 83.4 81.6 79.9 80.4 82.8 85.4 87.4 88.2

Base case+2 97.2 107.5 88.7 86.7 85.5 84.6 85.5 88.2 91.0 93.2 94.1

E.1.2.2 - Net replacement rat es of the public pension syst em under the nat ional baseline




















61


Age(2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 79.1 78.8 75.6 73.7 72.3 65.4 65.4 65.7 66.0 66.0 66.1

Base case+2 79.1 81.6 79.1 77.8 77.1 69.3 69.3 69.6 69.9 70.0 70.0

Base case 82.8 85.5 79.6 77.6 76.0 68.6 68.3 68.5 68.9 69.0 69.0

Base case+2 82.8 86.1 83.1 81.8 80.9 72.7 72.4 72.6 73.0 73.2 73.3

Base case 86.6 89.4 83.6 81.6 80.0 72.0 71.3 71.4 71.7 71.9 72.0

Base case+2 86.6 89.9 87.1 85.7 84.8 76.3 75.7 75.7 76.1 76.3 76.5

Base case 86.6 93.3 87.5 85.5 83.9 82.4 74.4 74.3 74.5 74.7 75.0

Base case+2 86.6 93.8 90.6 89.4 88.7 87.9 79.0 78.9 79.1 79.3 79.6


Age(3 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 89.0 76.5 69.3 64.7 60.8 60.6 61.8 63.2 64.4 64.6 64.6

Base case+2 89.0 78.5 71.9 67.9 64.6 64.5 65.9 67.4 68.7 68.9 69.0

Base case 93.2 98.0 73.6 68.9 65.0 63.0 64.0 65.4 66.8 67.3 67.4

Base case+2 93.2 98.4 76.2 72.1 68.8 67.1 68.2 69.7 71.2 71.8 71.9

Base case 97.3 102.5 78.0 73.2 69.3 65.5 66.3 67.5 69.0 69.8 70.1

Base case+2 97.3 103.0 80.6 76.3 73.0 69.8 70.7 72.1 73.7 74.6 74.9

Base case 97.2 107.1 82.4 77.4 73.5 69.6 68.6 69.7 71.1 72.2 72.7

Base case+2 97.2 107.5 85.0 80.6 77.3 73.9 73.2 74.4 75.9 77.2 77.8

E.1.2.3 - Net replacement rat es of the public pension syst em under the EPC-WGA baseline




















62


Age(2) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 69.8 72.8 71.1 72.3 74.1 68.7 71.0 72.7 73.0 73.1 73.1

Base case+2 69.8 75.9 75.0 77.1 79.7 73.4 75.9 77.7 78.1 78.2 78.2

Base case 73.7 79.7 75.0 76.1 77.9 72.1 74.2 76.7 77.1 77.2 77.3

Base case+2 73.7 80.5 78.8 80.9 83.5 77.0 79.3 82.1 82.4 82.6 82.7

Base case 77.5 83.7 78.8 80.0 81.7 75.6 77.4 79.9 81.2 81.3 81.5

Base case+2 77.5 84.5 82.7 84.7 87.3 80.8 82.8 85.5 86.8 87.0 87.3

Base case 77.5 87.7 82.6 83.8 85.5 87.4 80.8 83.1 85.3 85.4 85.8

Base case+2 77.5 88.5 86.5 88.6 91.2 94.0 86.3 88.9 91.2 91.4 91.8


Age(3 ) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 68.5 58.4 54.7 53.6 53.0 55.3 58.9 61.6 62.6 62.8 62.9

Base case+2 68.5 60.4 57.4 56.9 56.9 59.7 63.5 66.5 67.5 67.8 67.9

Base case 72.2 77.2 58.5 57.3 56.8 57.6 61.0 64.7 65.9 66.4 66.5

Base case+2 72.2 77.8 61.1 60.6 60.7 62.1 65.8 69.8 71.1 71.7 71.8

Base case 76.0 81.2 62.3 61.0 60.5 60.0 63.2 66.9 69.1 69.8 70.1

Base case+2 76.0 81.8 64.9 64.3 64.4 64.7 68.1 72.1 74.6 75.4 75.7

Base case 75.9 85.2 66.1 64.7 64.2 63.7 65.4 69.0 72.2 73.2 73.7

Base case+2 75.9 85.8 68.7 68.0 68.2 68.4 70.6 74.5 77.9 79.1 79.6







E.2.1.1 - Gross replacement rat es of the public and privat e pension syst ems under the EPC-

WGA baseline scenario : base case (1 )






The contribution rate to the private pension system is 6.91%. The real return rate from the private pension system, gross

of administrative expenses and tax, has been set at 3%. Administrative expenses are taken to account for 0.5

percentage points of the interest rate. The tax rate is 20% of the nominal rate of return, net of administrative expenses.








63


Age(2)

2010(3 ) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 79.1 82.9 81.9 83.8 86.4 81.7 84.9 87.0 87.2 87.3 87.3

Base case+2 79.1 85.9 85.8 88.6 92.1 86.5 90.0 92.2 92.4 92.6 92.6

Base case 82.8 89.6 85.6 87.5 90.0 85.0 88.0 91.3 91.5 91.6 91.7

Base case+2 82.8 90.4 89.5 92.3 95.7 90.1 93.3 96.8 97.0 97.2 97.3

Base case 86.6 93.4 89.3 91.2 93.8 88.4 91.1 94.4 95.8 95.9 96.1

Base case+2 86.6 94.3 93.2 96.0 99.5 93.7 96.6 100.1 101.7 101.8 102.0

Base case 86.6 97.3 93.1 94.9 97.5 100.3 94.4 97.5 100.2 100.3 100.6

Base case+2 86.6 98.1 97.0 99.7 103.2 106.9 100.1 103.5 106.3 106.4 106.8


Age(4 )

2010(3 ) 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Base case 96.5 88.3 86.1 85.7 86.0 90.2 96.0 100.1 101.2 101.5 101.6

Base case+2 96.5 90.9 89.6 90.0 91.3 96.1 102.3 106.8 108.0 108.4 108.5

Base case 101.0 111.7 90.9 90.3 90.7 93.1 98.7 104.6 105.9 106.5 106.6

Base case+2 101.0 112.5 94.3 94.7 96.1 99.2 105.2 111.7 113.1 113.8 113.9

Base case 105.5 116.7 95.6 95.0 95.4 96.1 101.4 107.3 110.5 111.3 111.7

Base case+2 105.5 117.5 99.1 99.4 100.8 102.4 108.2 114.6 118.0 119.0 119.4

Base case 105.3 121.6 100.4 99.7 100.1 100.8 104.2 110.1 115.0 116.1 116.7

Base case+2 105.3 122.4 103.9 104.1 105.5 107.1 111.2 117.5 122.9 124.1 124.8









The tax legislation currently in force has been applied. The contribution rate to the private pension system is 6.91%. The

real return rate from the private pension system, gross of administrative expenses and tax, has been set at 3%.

Administrative expenses are taken to account for 0.5 percentage points of the interest rate. The tax rate is 20% of the

nominal rate of return, net of administrative expenses.(2) In the base case, the retirement age is aligned to the minimum requirement for an old age pension for workers



(3) In 2010, the calculation of net replacement rates takes into account the deductibility of contributions paid to the

private pension system.

E.2.2.1 - Net replacement rat es of the public and privat e pension syst ems under the EPC-

WGA baseline scenario : base case (1 )







For further information:

Rocco Aprile – Chief General Inspector for Social Expenditure – [email protected] General Inspectorate for Social Expenditure – [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


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ministry of economy and finance - ministero dell economia ...€¦ · revised downwards by 0.1 pp,...

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