mining asteroids - wyoming mining association€¦ · asteroid mining take-homes • more real than...

Mining Asteroids:Promise, Prospects and Pitfalls

Ben W. McGee

WMA

June 16, 2016

6/30/2016 2

Overview

• Introduction

• Primer on asteroids

• Asteroid materials in history

• Why mine asteroids?

• Current players/tech

• Legal landscape

• Historical parallels - Epilogue

What? / Where?

Why?

How?

Who?

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Introduction

• A little about my background (academics):

– B.S. Geology, U. Wyo (Planetary Sci emphasis)

– M.S. Space Studies, UND (almost – end of 2016)

• Asteroid weathering – space geomorphology

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Introduction

• A little about my background (practical):

– Senior hydrogeologist w/ S. Nevada Water Authority

– Formerly space radiation passive/active shielding

specialist at Bigelow Aerospace (and other roles)

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Introduction

• A little about my background (practical):

– Currently Senior Scientist at Nevada National Security

Site, space science consultant w/ Astrowright

– Recurring TV host and science SME (outreach)

• Nat Geo, Weather Chan, Travel Chan, History Chan.

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Primer: What are Asteroids?

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What are Asteroids?

• Leftovers from the early Solar System

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What are Asteroids?

• Geochemically sourced from at least

80 differentiated proto-worlds(!).

[Images credit: Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History]

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What are Asteroids?

• Type 1: “Stony” asteroid

– (a.k.a. fragment of planetary crust; ~basalts)

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What are Asteroids?

• Type 2: “Stony-Iron” asteroid

– (a.k.a. fragment of core-mantle boundary)

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What are Asteroids?

• Type 3: “Iron” asteroid

– (a.k.a. fragment of planetary core)

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Primer: Where are Asteroids?

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Where are Asteroids?

• Key location:

Main Belt

– Roughly 5%

the mass of

Earth’s Moon

located here

– 3.6x1021 kg

(3,600 billion

billion kilos)

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Where are Asteroids?

• Key location:

Near Earth

– Near-Earth

Asteroids

(NEAs) possess

Earth-crossing

orbits; fewer, but

potential targets

for capture.

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Why care?

Historical Asteroid Material Value

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Why care?

• By mass, anything from space is the

rarest material on Earth…

– Current estimates avg 100 tons of

meteors/meteoritic dust fall to Earth per

day.

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Asteroid materials in history

• Divine material!

– Associated with meteorite finds

– Implies initially larger meteoroid

– Hailed by light, sound from above (“gods”)

• Mostly iron meteorites

– Other types broken apart on force of

reentry

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• Forged into many unique cultural items

– Crosses geography and eras

– Recently found as dagger in King Tut’s tomb!

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• Altered the course of history?

– Turns out, Iron meteorites are special.

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• Nickel-Iron alloy cannot be recreated.

– Interfingered kamacite and taenite requires

cooling rates > human timescales!

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• Nickel-Iron alloy cannot be recreated.

– “Widmanstätten pattern”:

– (Only by planet core cooling off in space)

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• Historical “magic” blades extraterrestrial?

– Meteoritic blades go through bronze ‘like butter

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• Modern Japanese artist replicated impulse:

– “The Sword of Heaven” (tentetsutou)

• Forged from solid slab of Gibeon iron meteorite…

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Why Mine Asteroids?

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Why Mine Asteroids?

• Space Ideology case:

– We should mine asteroids to support

humanity further expansion into space.

– Extremely inefficient, expensive to launch

material from Earth ($10k/lb), so market for

raw asteroid material is driven by launch

cost premiums.

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Why Mine Asteroids?

• Space Ideology case (colonization/future):

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Why Mine Asteroids?

• Environmental case:

– We should mine asteroids to reduce the

resource burden (Earth ecosystem disruption)

• Earth has limited surface area.

• Home to the only biosphere in known universe.

• Functions as humanity life support system.

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Why Mine Asteroids?

• Environmental case (conservation):

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Why Mine Asteroids?

• Survival case:

– We should mine asteroids to economically

develop technological know-how to deflect

asteroid threat.

• Regular impacts threaten civilization

• Chelyabinsk explosion in 2013 = 0.5MT blast,

Shoemaker-Levy 9 impact in ‘94 on Jupiter would

have destroyed all life on Earth.

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Why Mine Asteroids?

• Survival case:

6/30/2016 31

Why Mine Asteroids?

• Survival case (NASA Asteroid Redirect):

6/30/2016 32

Why Mine Asteroids?

• Waystation case (opportunity based):

– We should mine asteroids to take advantage

of raw material to fill physical needs in space.

• Acknowledged premium value of controlled

material in space (against launch premium)

• e.g., sell collected boulders for radiation shielding.

6/30/2016 33

Why Mine Asteroids?

• Waystation case (opportunity based):

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Why Mine Asteroids?

• Classic Mining case (profit based):

– We should mine asteroids to take advantage

of abundant available (unclaimed!) material

as mineral resources for profit.

• “Dumb” calculation suggests single asteroid

possesses >$100B worth of materials.

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Why Mine Asteroids?

• Classic Mining case (profit based):

$

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Why Mine Asteroids?

• Target minerals/elements include:

– Water (rocket fuel depot, life support)

– Hydrocarbons (rocket fuel depot)

– Structural metals (space manufacturing)

– Platinum group metals (back to Earth)

– Siliceous matrix minerals (rad shielding)

6/30/2016 37

Why Mine Asteroids?

Tantalizing figures according to one group

of industry analysts…

•A single asteroid just ~100 yards in

diameter could possess:

– $65B in recoverable water (for processing

into rocket fuel)

– $130B in nickel, iron, and platinum group

metals

6/30/2016 38

Why Mine Asteroids?

• Opposing viewpoint claims:

– True value is value of metals minus cost of

collecting them.

– $195B valuation includes launch premiums.

– True value unknowable until more tech

developed, but could be incredibly lucrative for

early entrants (as well as later ones!)

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Current Players/Technology

6/30/2016 40


• Planetary Resources

– Peter Diamandis, co-chairman/director

– Raised $21M in Series A funding

6/30/2016 41


• Deep Space Industries

– Rick Tumlinson, chairman

– Received 2 NASA grants in 2014

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• Luxembourg:

– Two weeks ago, announced a dedicated

national asteroid mining initiative(!).

– Last week Deputy Prime Minister and

Minster of Economy signed partnership

agreement w/ Planetary Resources…

– Legal and financial support for their

“…ambition to become a European hub for

the exploration and use of space resources”

6/30/2016 43


• Asteroid prospecting tech – TRL 9

– Telescopes used to identify composition

– NASA/academia-proven

– Planetary Resources and DSI deploying

smallsat observation satellite networks…

6/30/2016 44


• Asteroid interception tech – TRL 9-(ish?)

– NASA 2001 NEAR mission proved we could

orbit and control crash-land on an asteroid.

(433 Eros)

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– Japan 2010 Hayabusa mission proved

sample return possible. (25143 Itokawa)

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– ESA 2014 Rosetta mission proved controlled

landing possible. (Comet 67P Churyumov-Gerasimenko)

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• Asteroid mineral processing/extraction

tech – TRL 5-6-ish

– Field is wide open.

– Closest is simple gravity sorting

experiments in microgravity.

– Asteroid additive manufacturing?

(Planetary Resources)

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tech – TRL 5-6-ish

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tech – Current problems:

– Mineral distribution is atypical of Earth

– Traditional ore-enrichment techniques

therefore will not work…

– Concentrations for target minerals can be

very low… High volume required.

– In-situ market does not yet exist...

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Legal Landscape

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Legal Landscape

• Rapidly Evolving:

– Outer Space Treaty (1967) prohibits

sovereign appropriation of celestial bodies

– February 2015, FAA announce support for

private lunar ventures.

– November 2015, U.S. Commercial Space

Launch Competitiveness Act becomes law

• Specifically assigns resource rights to entities

who recover them from asteroids(!)

6/30/2016 52

Legal Landscape

• Rapidly Evolving:

– Luxembourg stance in parallel with U.S.

– “Fishermen do not own the sea, but they

can cast nets and own any fish they

recover.”

– International outcry, but U.S. Standing

behind law as being in compliance w/ Outer

Space Treaty obligations.

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Historical Parallels

6/30/2016 54


• All very expensive frontier work!

– (Understatement.)

• Can history suggest how asteroid

market entry might work?

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• Yes… Research on Yukon Gold Rush

suggests unexpected (altruistic?)

partnerships and info-sharing on frontier.

– “Plenty to go around.”

– “You scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours.”

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• Better example w/ the “New World” :

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• Entering “New World” – what was the market?

– We (accidentally) went there (W. Indies) looking

for spice.

– The resource

we knew

about going in.

6/30/2016 58


• “New World” economy – market evolved!

• We went back (Mexico, S. America) looking

for gold.

– The flashy

resource of high

intrinsic value

(unsustainable?)

6/30/2016 59


• “New World” economy – evolving still!

• We stayed permanently to raise/harvest

lucrative tobacco.

– The profitable

commodity that

evolved w/ or

because of

exploration.

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Suggests a pattern:

1. Known resource gets us there; some

losses at first (long game)

2. Discovered, easily accessible resource

keeps us going back

3. Evolved market develops that ensures

sustained presence (market force)

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Parting Thoughts

6/30/2016 62

Asteroid Mining take-homes

• More real than it has ever been, but not

there yet (close!)

• Real money being spent, real hardware

being bent.

• High risk, high reward potential.

• Legal landscape clearing***!

• Market should be expected to evolve…

6/30/2016 63


• Many sound reasons (ideological,

environmental, economic) to engage in

asteroid mining…

6/30/2016 64


• So, the future of mining is here?

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Questions?

www.benwmcgee.com

mining asteroids - wyoming mining association€¦ · asteroid mining take-homes • more real than...

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