mindi faber-de anda & jay olberding: eia rolls out ethanol by rail data

EIA Rolls Out Ethanol By Rail Data

Mindi Farber-DeAnda

Team Lead

Biofuels & Emerging

Technologies Analysis

U.S. Energy Information

Administration

Kelly Davis

Director of Regulatory Affairs

Renewable Fuels Association

Jay Olberding

Consultant

PLG Consulting

www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

EIA’s forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data

For

National Ethanol Conference

February 17, 2016 | New Orleans, LA

By

Mindi Farber DeAnda, EIA Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis

Jay Olberding, PLG

EIA mission: independent statistics and analysis

3

• EIA was created by the U.S. Congress in 1977

• EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and

impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking,

efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its

interaction with the economy and the environment

• EIA is the Nation's premier source of energy information and,

by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of

approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S.

Government

• EIA does not propose or advocate any policy positions

Mindi Farber-DeAnda and Jay Olberding, EIA's forthcoming ethanol-by-rail data

New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016

EIA petroleum and biofuel data use Petroleum Administration

for Defense Districts (PADDs)

4



The Midwest (PADD 2) is where almost all ethanol is produced


New Orleans, LA, February 17, 2016 5

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

PADD5 PADD4 PADD3 PADD2 PADD1

Ethanol Production by PADD

Source: EIA

The East Coast (PADD 1) is where most ethanol is blended with

gasoline



0

200

400

600

800

1000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Ethanol Refiner and Blender Net Input by PADD

thousand b/d

Source: EIA

EIA summary statistics are split into supply and disposition

7



SUPPLY DISPOSITION

Production Stocks withdrawn

Adjustments Refinery/Blender Input

Imports Exports

Inter-PADD Receipts Inter-PADD Shipments

• By definition supply must equal disposition

• For ethanol the elements are

• Receipt and Shipment modes include pipeline, waterborne, and rail

• Net Receipts = Receipts - Shipments

2010 U.S. regional ethanol balances (thousand b/d)

8



Note: *Implied rail is calculated to make supply equal disposition

**Regional adjustments are calculated as a % of the U.S. adjustment

East Coast Midwest Gulf Coast

Rocky

Mountain West Coast

U.S.

SUPPLY PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5

Production + 20 806 18 14 10 867

Imports + 0 0 0 0 0 1

Net Inter-PADD receipts + 310 (566) 110 4 142

Pipeline 0 0 0 0 0

Tanker and Barge 4 17 13 0 0

Implied Rail 306 (583) 97 4 142

Adjustments + (21) (15) (8) (1) (10) (56)

DISPOSITION

Stocks withdrawn - (1) 2 2 0 0 4

Refinery/Blender Input - 302 216 108 16 141 783

Exports - 8 6 11 0 1 26

Source: EIA

2014 U.S. regional ethanol balances (thousand b/d)

9



Note: *Implied rail is calculated to make supply equal disposition

**Regional adjustments are calculated as a % of the U.S. adjustment

East Coast Midwest Gulf Coast

Rocky

Mountain West Coast

U.S.

SUPPLY PADD 1 PADD 2 PADD 3 PADD 4 PADD 5

Production + 24 855 22 14 18 934

Imports + 3 0 1 0 1 5

Net Inter-PADD receipts + 300 (594) 146 13 135

Pipeline 0 0 0 0 0

Tanker and Barge 6 (17) 11 0 0

Implied Rail 294 (577) 135 13 135

Adjustments + (3) (2) (1) 0 (1) (8)

DISPOSITION

Stocks withdrawn - 2 2 2 0 1 6

Refinery/Blender Input - 319 238 135 27 150 869

Exports - 4 19 30 0 2 55

Source: EIA

Ethanol net receipts by mode reveal that rail is the primary mode of

ethanol shipments out of Midwest (PADD 2)

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Net shipment

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600


Waterborne Implied Rail

thousand barrels per day 2014

Net receipt

2010

Source: EIA

EIA’s new data series on ethanol-by-rail movements



• Similar data has already been published for crude oil

– www.eia.gov/petroleum/transportation

• Developed from Surface Transportation Board (STB) administrative data

• Will be published in the coming months

• Credible and publicly-available information on ethanol-by-rail movements,

including historical monthly data back to 2010

• Inter- and intra-regional ethanol-by-rail movements improve EIA’s ethanol

balances by providing additional transparency on shipments and receipts

• EIA has also developed tools to aggregate and analyze weekly rail performance

data reported to STB

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/transportation

12



Estimated

monthly carloads

STB Carload

Waybill Sample

EIA products (aggregated statistics

in barrels)

• Inter/intra-PADD

movements

• Canada imports/exports

• Class I and short line

RRs that meet STB

carload threshold

• Sampled RR bills-of-

lading

• Highly detailed

1 2 3

• Apply expansion factors

• Apportion rail movement

by month, PADD

• All railroads

Estimate

balance of rail

movements

4

• U.S.-Canadian carloads

• Convert carloads to

barrels

• Regressions for near-

month estimates

EIA’s ethanol-by-rail data process integrates multiple data streams

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Source: STB through Annual Confidentiality Agreement

Update rate and lag time: Daily data provided monthly/quarterly

with a 2-month lag

Companies reporting: Both Class I and short-line companies

(Class II and III)

Data elements: company, date, carloads and tonnage by data type,

origination, termination, and interchange points



STB Carload Waybill Sample Data

Data issues with STB Carload Waybill Sample

14



• Accounting date vs waybill date

– EIA uses its own reporting period, which is the Waybill date plus estimated transit

time(s)

• Rule 11 moves around the Chicago area

– More waybills originate in Chicago than terminate in Chicago

• Changes to EIA’s existing ethanol balances

– Once rail data is introduced, adjustments will be calculated to balance supply and

disposition

• Impacts on EIA’s gasoline product supplied

– Ethanol adjustments will modify motor gasoline adjustments

Conversion of STB carload data to barrels

15



• Expanded carloads are converted to barrels by

– Carload weight * the density of ethanol

• The greater of the billed vs actual weight found in the Waybill is used

– Barrel per carload conversion factors are calculated quarterly

Estimating rail movements without STB data

16



• STB provides the Waybill sample quarterly while EIA requires

monthly data

– The quarterly waybill is provided up to 2 months after quarter end

• EIA estimates anywhere from 1 to 3 months of rail movements to

meet the Petroleum Supply Monthly production schedule

– A combination of time-series, regression models, and averages is used

for the estimates

With the addition of ethanol, the title of the page will change

and ethanol will be added as a drop down product



http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE_

RAILNA_A_EPC0_RAIL_MBBL_M.htm

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE_RAILNA_A_EPC0_RAIL_MBBL_M.htm





Ethanol plants are concentrated in the Midwest

Ethanol Plants -

million gallons per year (MGY)



Rail shipments originate near ethanol plants in the Midwest and

terminate on the coasts



Ethanol/gasoline blending terminals are spread throughout the country



2010 ethanol-by-rail map

10

350 700

Thousands of barrels

per day

Ethanol plant

Legend



2014 ethanol-by-rail map

10

350 700

Thousands of

barrels per day

Ethanol plant

Legend

Analyzing the STB rail service issues data (EP 724)



• In October 2014 the STB ordered the class I railroads to provide weekly data on 10

performance metrics

1. System average train speed by unit train type

2. System average terminal dwell

3. Cars online by car type

4. Average dwell time at origin by unit train type

5. Trains held greater than 6 hours by unit train type

6. Cars not moved in greater than 120 hours and 48 hours by unit train type

7. Grain cars loaded and billed

8. Grain cars: past due, average days late, new orders, orders filled/canceled

9. Grain trains: plan vs. performance

10.Coal trains: plan vs. performance

• Data is publicly available on the STB website and might be useful in informing the EIA rail

data

• EIA has an approach to scrape and analyze data for crude and ethanol unit trains

EIA rail service scraper tool –

select commodity and railroad data to view



EIA rail service scraper tool – average speed, dwell time, and

number of loaded cars



EIA rail service scraper tool – empty cars



EIA rail service scraper tool – BNSF loaded and empty cars



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For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

U.S. Movements of Crude Oil By Rail | www.eia.gov/petroleum/transportation



http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/steo

http://www.eia.gov/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/ieo

http://www.eia.gov/mer

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/transportation

mindi faber-de anda & jay olberding: eia rolls out ethanol by rail data

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