miller - the critical role of materials in the pv industry

GW Solar Institute Symposium

The Critical Role of Materials

in the Solar PV Industry

Dave MillerPresident, DuPont Electronics & Communications

April 19, 2010

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DuPont Photovoltaic Solutions

© DuPont

Discussion Topics

• PV market background

• Materials role in helping reach grid parity

• Investment required in materials

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To be the world’s most dynamic science company,

creating sustainable solutions

essential to a better, safer, healthier life for people everywhere.

The Vision of DuPont

We are a market-driven science company.

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Cell metallization& process chemicals

Films for backsheets& frontsheets

Module encapsulation

Engineering resins & components

#1 Global PV materials manufacturer (ex-silicon)

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Return to historical PV growth rates

Stronger impact from stimulus programs

• ~50% installation growth from 2009 to 2010

• Significant growth in USA, China, & Italy

• US: ITC (30% subsidy), MTC ($2.3B)

• China: Golden Sun (50% subsidy, ~$3B)

• Germany: FIT cut 3Q10

Industry Status: Post Financial CrisisDemand Strong Again, but Pricing Weak

Continued focus on “bankable” technologies

Continued weak pricing

• Bank lending more conservative

• Bank lending for CIGS & Concentrator PV developing slowly

• 2009 module prices down 30-40% yr/yr

• Expect another 10-20% price decline in 2010

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Tremendous Reduction in Module Prices Accelerates the Drive to Grid Parity

Source: Deutsche Bank

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

1Q

07

2Q

07

3Q

07

4Q

07

1Q

08

2Q

08

3Q

08

4Q

08

1Q

09

2Q

09

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

Crystalline Si Module Selling Prices

ModulePrice($/W)

Fin

an

cia

l C

risis

2009 Module Prices:

Down ~38%

Projected

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Significant growth of PV installations expected to 2014, driven by expanding incentives and cost reduction

Total Market

2010: 12.7 GW

2014: 30.0 GW

CAGR:24%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

India

ROA

Czech

China

Spain

France

USA

Italy

Japan

Germany

GW

Annual Installations

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

on GW basis2010 Rank

2 (-1)

4 (-2)

5 (-2)

1 (+4)

7 (-2)

10 (-4)

3 (+4)

14 (-6)

12 (-3)

8 (+2)

2014Rank

2014

US57%

Germ.2% ROE

68%

Italy14%

Japan19%

Spain13%

ROA23%

China43%

Volume CAGRs 2010-2014

GrowthRate

GrowthRate

>50%>50%

30-50%30-50%

20-30%20-30%

<20%<20%

Fran21%

2010

Source: EPIA Policy Driven Scenario, March 2010

India50%

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U.S. Companies Maintain a Strong Leadership Position in Materials & Equipment for PV

SystemsBalance

OfSystem

ModulesMaterials

& EquipmentCells

37%

ROW

10%

ROW

6%

ROW

Source: DuPont

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Photovoltaics is an Excellent Creator of Jobs

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Tidal Wind Geothermal Biomass-

Dedicated

Steam

Solar PV

Job Creation Potential of Various Energy Generation Assets Number ofJobs perMW

Source: INEEL, BC Sustainable Energy Association, Lehman Brothers, Renewable Energy Policy Project

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PV Has Higher Materials Content Compared to Other Electronic Products

Source: Solar Buzz; Prismark

30%13%

23%

Materials

PVPV DisplaysDisplays SemiconSemicon

$249B$249B$134B$134B$35B$35B

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Materials Cost Impact on PV Cells & Modules

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

Crystalline Silicon Thin Film

SiliconMetal(43%)

Bill of Materials

Cost ofMaterials

in $/W

MetallizationPastes (13%)

Backsheet Film (10%)

Front Glass (7%)

Encap Film (7%)

Junction Box (6%)

Other Mat’ls (13%)

TCO FrontGlass (32%)

Module Frame (19%)

Backsheet Film (13%)

Gases & Targets (12%)

Encap Film (9%)

Junction Box (6%)

Reflector Paint (4%)

Conductive Ribbon (2%)

Other Materials (4%)

Source: DuPont

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Strong Pipeline of Materials Innovations will Improve System Efficiency, Cost and Lifetime

Lifetime

Cost

EfficiencyN-type silicon wafers

Improved cell metallizationHigher aspect ratio metallization

Improved anti-reflective coatings

Textured tabbing ribbons

Improved transparent conductive oxides

Better reflector films

Higher blue light transparent materials

More temperature resistant substrates

Thermally conductive substrates

Improved encapsulants

Improved anti-soiling/fouling coatings

More durable backsheetsBetter edge sealing

Higher reliability inverters


Microinverters

Flexible moisture barriers

Thinner Si wafers

Lower quality UMG (upgraded metallurgical grade) silicon

Faster lamination cycle time

Simpler mounting & racking systems

Lower moisture sensitivity encapsulants

Thinner encapsulant films

Thinner backsheet films

New backsheet constructions

Lighter weight materials

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Materials Innovation

High Efficiency Metallization

Pastes

Materials Innovations for Higher Cell Efficiency

Rela

tive E

ffic

iency • DuPont Solamet® metallization

pastes enable ~2%/yr efficiency improvement

• Double printing technology accelerates efficiency gains

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Solamet® MetallizationProduct Launches

Next Gen Solamet® for Double Printing

Cell efficiency improvements

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Efficiency LifetimeN-type silicon wafers














Microinverters


CostThinner Si wafers









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Materials Innovations for Lower Module Costs

• DuPont PV5300 ionomer encapsulant films introduced in 2009

• Unique properties are ideal for glass-glass PV modules

• Cost savings of $3/panel by elimination of edge sealing

Distance from Edge (cm)

Mois

ture

(%

)

IonomerEncapsulant

Films

Lower moisture ingress

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Efficiency

Cost

N-type silicon wafers









Thinner Si wafers









Lifetime






Microinverters


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Rela

tive

Ele

ctr

icit

y C

os

t o

f P

V S

ys

tem

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

10 15 20 25 30 35 40

48%48%

58%58%

System Life (Years)

Longer-Life Systems Deliver Lower-Cost Power

Reduction in cost vs. 10 year life system

Materials Choices Drive System Reliability & Cost

Source: Sunpower; DuPont

25 year warranties becoming standard

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Materials Innovations for Longer System Lifetime

AdhesionChange 93% 100%

16%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

All PET Single Layer

PVDF

Tedlar® TPT

0 hr

1000 hrs

Ad

hesio

n S

tren

gth

(N

/cm

) • Backsheets require 25+ year adhesion under operating conditions

• DuPont Tedlar® films have a 25+ year proven track record in the field


Polyvinyl Fluoride Films

Higher aged adhesion

PVF

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Strong PV Market Growth Will Put Demands on Materials Suppliers

100

6.8 6.1 9.4 12.4 15.920.4

37

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

15

20

20

PV Module Production Forecast

GW

Source: Applied Materials with extrapolation to 2020

22% CAGR

35% CAGR

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Large Capacity Expansions are Required to Keep Pace with PV Industry Growth

Systems

BalanceOf

SystemModulesMaterials Cells

Source: DuPont

2020 scenario(100GW/yr)

2020 scenario(100GW/yr)

80 - 100 50 - 100 40 - 60 10 - 20 n.m.CapEx to 2020 ($B)

Silicon Glass MetallizationPastes

Backsheet Encapsulant

+ $60B + $60B + $8B + $8B + $9B + $9B + $6B + $6B + $6B + $6B

1.0 - 1.2 1 - 2 3 - 5 5 - 10 n.m.Sales to

CapEx Ratio

CapEx

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Implications for PV Industry to 2020

� Materials are critical component of PV systems

� Materials are essential to PV industry’s future roadmap:

• Improved Efficiency

• Reduced Cost

• Longer Lifetime

� Materials companies serving the PV market need:

• Strong technology & fast-paced innovation capability

• Sufficient capital for capacity expansions

• Global footprint to serve customers’ growth

miller - the critical role of materials in the pv industry

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