millenium study in malawi
DESCRIPTION
Etude de synthèse sur le MalawiTRANSCRIPT
MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE ACCOUNT ‐MALAWI
CA Summary
Context for MCCs EngagementWhat Constrains Economic Growth?
Geography
Human Capital
Infrastructure – Roads, energy and water
Finance
Macro and Micro risks
Market failures
Summary of Major Constraints
Challenges & Constraints
Poverty Reduction and Attainment of MDGs
Achievement of Sustainable Economic Growth and
Wealth Creation
Decrease Aid Dependency and attainment of Vision 2020
Priority In
terven
tion
s
Malawi Growth and Development Strategy
By SectorBy Aid
ModalityFavourable macroeconomic Conditions; inefficient High costs of doing business; Poor Infrastructure; Poor Public/private; Cooperation ; Weaknesses in Human Resource Base;HIV/AIDS Prevalence;High levels of corruption
Low and stagnant agricultural yields,
overdependence on rain fed farming and low uptake of improved
farming
Degradation of water resources; inadequate
promotion of hygiene and sanitation
Inadequate and unreliable energy supply
Priority Reforms • Control of Corruption
•Regulatory Quality•Public Sector Reforms•Fiscal Policy•etc.
Public In
vestmen
ts
• Agriculture and Food Security• Irrigation and Water Development•Transport Infrastructure Development•Energy Generation and Supply•Integrated Rural Development•Prevention and Management of Nutrition Disorders, HIV and AIDS
Donor Support=45% of National Budget
Long Term Medium Term Long Term
MPRSP, MEGS
Growth diagnosticsWhat constrains private investments?
Low returns to economic activity High cost of finance
Low social return Low appropriability Bad Intl. finance Bad local finance
Poor geography
Badinfrastructure
Low humancapital
Govt.failures
Marketfailures
Microrisks
Macrorisks
Self‐discovery
Coordinationexternalities
Fiscal rigidity
Low savings
Poor intermediation
Corruption, taxes,
property rights
Financial, monetary, fiscal
instability
CONSTRAINTS TO ECONOMIC GROWTH : GEOGRAPHY
Malawi Constraints Analysis
Geography• Weather has impacted maize output
– Contributes to low maize output
• Droughts are common (1992, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2005)
– Farmers cannot afford irrigation and feel full impact of weathervariability
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170
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3500
1989
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Mai
ze, T
hous
ands
tonn
es
Maize MMI (Rainfall index) Drought
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, World Bank
Geography• Major impediment to economic growth
– Rainfall is therefore a major driver of maize yields and subsequently of economic growth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Trend + Population growth Rainfall (MMI)
Residual GDP/capita growthSource: WDI, World Bank
GeographyEven controlling for MMI, GDP/capita growth volatility is high compared to other countries in the region
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
GhanaSwaziland
UgandaBeninKenya
TanzaniaSouth Africa
NamibiaBotswana
LesothoBurundiZambia
Rwanda (excl. 1994-95)Malawi (controlling for MMI)
MozambiqueMadagascar
Malawi
Standard Deviation of GDP/capita growth, 1989-2006
Source: WDI
GeographyLow maize output and land pressure
By African standards, Malawi is a densely populated country.One of the lowest urbanization levels in the world: 83% of population live in rural areas.
As result:Arable land per rural inhabitant has declined substantially. Issues of land distribution must be addressedLand is overused, which depresses yields further: soil fertility declining at a rate of 60kg of NPK per ha per year. (Source: GoM and WB “Malawi PVA”)
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
BurundiMalawiKenya
BotswanaSouth Africa
TanzaniaUgandaRwanda
MozambiqueZambia
Arable land, ha/rural inhabitant, 2005
Source: WDI, author’s calculations
GeographyMalawi landlocked ‐ so are many other countries!
Distance to nearest port <900km and transport costs should be around 20% according to the regression line
Distance explains only a third of high transport costs
Malawi
R² = 0.1850.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 1000 2000
Transport costs / exports
Distance to port (km)
All landlocked countries
Malawi
R² = 0.2770.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 1000 2000
Transport costs / exports
Distance to port (km)
Sub Saharan Africa
?
GeographyGeography only explains part of the story
Malawi is landlocked and rainfall is an important driver of growth
Land is scarce which and lends itself to overuse resulting in loss of soil fertility
But neither of these factors can explain the high variability ofGDP, nor does Malawi being a landlocked country explain the high cost of international transport
CONSTRAINTS TO ECONOMIC GROWTH : INFRASTRUCTURE
Malawi Constraints Analysis
Transport : RoadsDo bad or congested roads constrain growth?
No. Malawi’s road density is good by regional standards though still below that of a number of countries in the region
0 20 40 60
MozambiqueBotswanaTanzania
KenyaZambiaMalawi
ZimbabweSouth Africa
UgandaRwanda
Road density (km of road per 100 sq km of land area)
All roads Paved roads
0 50 100 150 200
MalawiZimbabwe
ZambiaRwanda
MozambiqueTanzaniaUganda
KenyaSouth Africa
Road usage
Vehicles/km of paved road
People/km of paved road
RoadsQuality of roads improving
... although over 30% of unpaved roads are still in poor condition hinders access for agricultural buyers, microfinance institutions, tourism, etc
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2006
2007
Paved roads
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2006
2007
All roads
Good Fair Poor
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2006
2007
Unpaved roads
Source: MEPD AER 2008
Access to ports & railwayDoes access to ports through the railway constrain economic growth?
Let’s look at the state of the infrastructure.
There has been a long delay in rehabilitating the 77 km stretch to Cuamba on the Mozambique side, severely impacting transit times.
No rail infrastructure to Beira ‐ currently accessible only by road –more expensive than needed.
Rail infrastructure in Malawi is poor – in need of major rehabilitation. “Delays in repairing the Blantyre‐Lilongwe rail line (was cut in 2003) compared badly to the swift repair of the road link.”
State of rail infrastructure is poor.
Transport CostsState of rail infrastructure reduces
transportation options and drives costs up:Shipping by rail through Nacala cheap, but unreliable
TERA (2005) estimates:Lilongwe‐Beira: 948 km. 3 days transit by road
Lilongwe‐Nacala: 989 km. 10 days transit by rail (77km to Cuamba @15km/h)
Large retail business: “If a delivery is time‐critical, I route it through Dar.”Cost and duration of import from India:Nacala: $4000 12 weeks
Beira: $4800 12 weeks
Dar‐es‐Salaam: $6000 6‐8 weeks
Govt. recognizes: “[...] logistical and capacity problems with the Nacala rail line” results in most gasoline being imported through other routes. (Source: MEPD AER 2008) Source: MEPD AER 2008
0
50
100
150
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250
300
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Fuel imports by route (million litres)
Nacala Beira Dar-es-Salaam Mbeya+Gweru
Transport costs
• As a result of high transport costs
Malawi not well‐integrated
into the world economy
– Large wedge between domestic
and international prices
– Inefficiencies in the logistics
chain
0% 20% 40% 60%
Swaziland
Lesotho
Zimbabwe
Botswana
Zambia
CAF
Burkina Faso
Niger
Burundi
Uganda
Mali
Chad
Rwanda
Malawi
Transport costs / value of exports
Transport costs
• Wedge between domestic and international prices can be explained by :– Few options for reliable international transport
– Imbalance in the value, timing and quantity, of imports and exports
• Tobacco, cotton, sugar, tea and coffee – low price per kg ‐ high shipping cost per value of kg
• Exports and imports occur at different times and sometimes result in empty back haulage (tobacco, fertiliser)
• Imports 2x the value of exports
Transport CostsOnly exports that are not time‐ and logistics‐critical survive
Tobacco, tea, sugar, cotton well‐adapted to survive
Flower exports a failure, due to poor logistics (air transportation)
Problems with transport logistics contribute to limited response to AGOA
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1750
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Thou
san
ds
Con
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t 2
00
0 U
S$
Exports of flowers and live trees
Malaiwi's export failures
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4
8
12
16
20
1994
1995
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1998
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2004
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2007
Mil
lion
con
stan
t 2
00
0 U
S$
Selected textiles exports
Cotton Fabrics Unknitted Apparel Knitted Apparel
Source: GoM National Accounts
Transport Costs
Import substitution dominates manufacturing sector
Non‐agriculture manufacturing dominated by import‐substituting industries that are insulated from international competition by high transportation costs:
Only 14% of manufactured output is exported (MEPD AER 2008)
Transport Costs
• Due to the state of transport infrastructure, options are limited and costs are high.
• Only exports that are not time and logistics critical survive
• As a result Malawi has a stagnant export basket
• Conclusion : Transport infrastructure is a constraint.
CONSTRAINTS TO ECONOMIC GROWTH : Impact of transport costs, land pressure and rainfall on food security and agricultural diversification
Malawi Constraints Analysis
Effects of geography and poor infrastructure on food security
• Yields are stagnant– Low penetration of hybrid varieties of maize
– Pressure on land reduces soil fertility
– Underuse of fertilizer, irrigation and other inputs including the hand‐held hoe translate into low yields
0 1 2 3 4
AfricaWorld
SwazilandZimbabwe
LesothoRwanda
MozambiqueBurundiMalawi
UgandaTanzania
KenyaZambia
NamibiaEthiopia
South Africa
Maize yield, tonnes/ha
2006 Average 2000-06
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
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1987
1989
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1995
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1999
2001
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2005
Maize yield kg/ha, 5-yr moving average
Malawi South Africa World
Source: FAOSTAT
Effects on Food SecurityFood security = low maize productivity +agricultural exports +high cost of trade
Forex receipts from tobacco fall when needed mostImports are expensive because of high cost of trade (ct)Little maize exports when the country has good harvest because of high cost of trade (ct) Results in large price swings which in turn creates a disincentive to diversifyLow maize productivity pushes farmers into corner solution during drought years
Good harvest
Maize
P W
P X < P W
P W
Drought
Maize
Other goo
ds
Consumption = Output
Subsistence
P M > P W
Welfare if ct=0
Output of traditional exportsaffected by droughts
Output
Consumption
Little maize exports with high ct
Maize exports if ct=0
Welfare if ct=0
Summary on food security and agricultural diversification• Due to the high cost of transportation combined with
geographical factors as well as little use of inputs the farmersfind themselves in a corner situation
• There is low demand during times of good harvests and there are large surges of demand in times of poor harvests leading to high price volatilities
• Small landholdings result in overuse and precipitates loss of soil fertility. Cash crop production is also limited
• Price volatility creates a disincentive to diversify‐ the farmer cannot guarantee household access to maize without a significant cash crop production
PowerDoes quality and quantity of supply constrain growth?
ESCOM loaded at full capacity
Reintroduction of Tedzani will remove immediate pressure, but not for long.
Peak demand reaching capacity = power outages
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
MW
Installed capacity Available capacity Peak DemandSource: MEPD AER 2006 & 2008
Installed capacity
Available capacity
Peak demand
Point where peak demandExceeds installed capacity
PowerPower outages and large scale projects
ESCOM couldn’t guarantee QoS to uranium mines Paladin imported diesel generators:
much more expensive energy increased diesel imports create additional pressure on international transport.
Heavy sands extraction never materialized because of the same inability to guarantee QoS BAT quoted power outages as one of the reason for their departure from Malawi:
Each power outage = 50,000 cigarettes thrown awayDairy industry can’t provide consistent quality of milk (outages preclude maintaining constant temperature)Plastics: power outage = expensive cleaning of equipment.
Power• Power shortages – outages = losses
– Median losses from power outages: 20% without a generator vs 5% with generator
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Low income
SSA
South Africa
Uganda
Zambia
Kenya
Madagascar
Tanzania
Malawi
Median sales losses due to power outages
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Low income
SSA
South Africa
Madagascar
Uganda
Zambia
Malawi
Tanzania
Kenya
% of firms with generator
Source: Malawi ICA 2006
Power
• State of power infrastructure poor, impacting returns to investment and constraining new investments in the country.
• It has prevented the country’s diversification into non‐traditional exports (e.g. Titanium and on farm processing)
• It has led to the shrinking of manufacturing output
• Yes, power is a constraint to growth.
WATER AND IRRIGATION
Malawi Constraints Analysis
Water and Irrigation
• Frequent Droughts and Floods– Droughts are endemic to Malawi and have had devastating
effects on crop and livestock production. Floods occur in the south, particularly in the lower shire areas of Lake Malawi, Lake Malombe and Lake Chilwa. Floods also occur in the lower reaches of the Songwe River in the Northern Region.
– The main problems of flooding are damage of agricultural lands and crop damage. Droughts, floods and rainfall variability also assert risk‐averse behaviour by farmers and other investors in agricultural industries and services, slowing the diversification of economic activities.
Water and Irrigation
• Degradation of upper catchments– De‐vegetation, erosion and sedimentation are Malawi’s most serious environmental threat, affecting energy generation and water supply to homes industries.
– The most significant dams are the hydropower dams on the Shire River, which are badly affected by sedimentation. Sedimentation is particularly acute in the Nkula pondage which supplies a power plant and Blantyre Water Board (BWB).
Water and irrigation
• Coverage of water supply and sanitation– Almost 50 percent of all illnesses in Malawi are water‐related,
such as cholera and typhoid, a problem exacerbated by the rapid spread of HIV/AIDS
– The chemical contamination of stream water in urban and peri –urban areas is becoming a common problem due to the improper disposal of industrial waste.
– Europhication of water bodies and the growth of the water weeds including water hyacinth threaten fish resources.
– Today 74.2% Malawians have access to improved water supply and the country is on course to attaining the water MDG
– As for urban areas of Lilongwe and Blantyre there is significantchallenge in maintaining the ageing water system as the urban population increases. Water shortages are very common especially in Blantyre and seriously affects business operations
Water and irrigation
• Despite abundance of water resources irrigation development has been limited
• Only 27% of the irrigation potential has been exploited
Conclusion:Water and irrigation are a constraint• Malawi is on course to attaining the water MDG by 2015• The country experiences serious droughts which results in
agricultural land and crop damage• Reinforce farmers’ aversion to risk‐taking including
diversification • Malawi suffers from degradation of upper catchments
thereby affecting other economic activities including power generation and Pumping capacity of Blantyre Water Board
• Lilongwe and Blantyre Water Boards have the problem of ageing water systems
• Malawi is not exploiting its irrigation potential
HUMAN CAPITAL
Malawi Constraints Analysis
Primary Education• Completion rates for the first four
years of primary school are 44.2% (lowest of comparator countries).
• Primary education is accompanied by higher cash‐crop income
Source: IHS 2005, authors calculations
Tobacco income against years of primary education
Tertiary Education• Tertiary enrollment is lowest of comparators (0.4%
gross enrollment)
• Annual expenditure for urban university graduates is 4x secondary school leavers
• Malawians make great efforts to study in overseas universities
High returns to tertiary education
Source: IHS 2005, authors calculations
Annual expenditure for each education level
Skills• ICA: shortage of skills is quoted
as 8th by businesses
• But absence of skills prevents existence of high‐skill businesses
• High number of foreign workers in key management/ technical posts in firms and NGOs
• High proportion of businesses owned or managed by foreigners in formal sector. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Environmental regulations
Labor Regulations
Legal framework / Conflict resolution
Business Licensing and Operating …
Customs and Trade Regulations
Telecommunications
Regulatory Policy Uncertainty
Political stability
Anti-competitive or informal practices
Other
Access to Land
Tax administration
Corruption
Skills and Education of Available …
Transportation
Crime, theft and disorder
Tax rates
Electricity
Cost of financing
Access to financing
Macroeconomic instability
Is Human Capital a constraint?• Yes:
– Low primary school completion rates
– Highly contracted tertiary education
– High returns to primary education in cash cropping
– High returns to tertiary education in urban employment
– Shortage of highly skilled workers
– There is a mismatch between school and tertiary institutions curricula and what is required by most businesses
– Technical training institutions not properly functioning
• Government/ donors are gradually improving primary and secondary education– School building
– New curriculum
– Expansion of Teacher Training colleges
• Transformation of education is crucial but slow and expensive
FinanceIs access to capital a constraint?
Yes:High interest rates
High spreads
High overheads (little pressure to cut costs)
Small financial depth (but 1980s‐90s reduction in private credit due to reduction in investment opportunities, not vice‐versa)
Banking highly profitable (ROA and ROE)
Access is an issue
Venture capital not available
All point to poor financial intermediationBut high overheads are at least partly explained by small market size
But things are gradually changing:Recent financial innovations: FMB’s Makwacha cards, increased ATM networks
Spreads decreasing (albeit not due to competition‐induced cost‐cutting)
At least one bank considers raising deposit rates
Macroeconomic risksSummary
Fiscal stance much improved, but credibility of recent advances has yet to be established.
Inflation is under control
Overvalued exchange rate hurts exporters and is maintained in a fashion that also penalizes importers
Source: ICA
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Environmental regulations
Labor Regulations
Legal framework / Conflict resolution
Business Licensing and Operating …
Customs and Trade Regulations
Telecommunications
Regulatory Policy Uncertainty
Political stability
Anti-competitive or informal practices
Other
Access to Land
Tax administration
Corruption
Skills and Education of Available …
Transportation
Crime, theft and disorder
Tax rates
Electricity
Cost of financing
Access to financing
Macroeconomic instability
Micro risks: conclusionOverall business climate has tremendously improved in recent years. Nevertheless Malawi doing less than its neighbors to provide a favorable business climate to investors
Given non‐administrative barriers to trade and coupled with the high administrative burden on exporters it is extremely unhelpful in promoting an export‐oriented economy
SELF‐DISCOVERY
Malawi Growth Diagnostics
Export sophisticationExport basket still highly concentrated
... although there is some improvement once tobacco is factored out
Hirschman‐Hirfindahl index of export concentration
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1990
1991
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
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2006
HHI Index HHI Index w/o tobacco0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Kenya
Uganda
Namibia
Ghana
Zambia
Rwanda
Mozambique
Malawi
Botswana
2006 2002 1997Source: UN Comtrade, author’s calculations
Export sophistication• Malawi’s placement
1000
2000
4000
8000
16000
32000
500 1000 2000 4000 8000 16000 32000 64000
EXP
Y 2
00
3, $
GDP/capita 2003, PPP$
Source: Hausmann & Rodrik (2005)
Exports v GDPA stagnant EXPY, stagnant GDPExport sophistication is stagnating although tobacco hides some recent progress
Zambia and Mozambique: rapid structural transformation, higher growth
0% 20% 40% 60%
Uganda
Kenya
Malawi
Zambia
Mozambique
EXPY and GDP/capita growth
GDP/capita growth, 2002 to 2006
EXPY growth, 2002 to 2006
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1990
1991
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Malawi's EXPY dynamics
EXPY EXPY excluding tobacco
Source: UN Comtrade database, authors calculations
Back to Food Security
• Addressing food security is key in unlocking Malawi’s potential to diversify and transform its productive and export base– A failed harvest removes the principal source of consumption for rural households
– Increased demand on the formal market during lean years greatly raises food prices making it harder to substitute lost subsistence production
– Capacity to replace lost production through imports is limited by forex earnings
Food SecurityThree components to food security three long term solutions + one short‐
term fix:
1. Increase and stabilize yields to the point where output doesn’t fall below subsistence levels even during bad years.
2. Increase and diversify Malawi’s exports.
3. Lower barriers to trade (transportation costs in particular).
4. Insure yourself against droughts on international financial markets (e.g. call option for maize).
Government focused on (1) at the expense of (2) and overlooking (3). (4) is a short‐term and expensive fix that does not address the root causes of the problem.
Food SecurityDifferent solutions, different tools1. Increase and stabilize food production:
Irrigation
Fertilizer
Feeder roads
Appreciated currency (to lower cost of fertilizer program)
Move into less volatile crops (cassava)
Subsidized rural credit
Avoiding creating market distortions
2. Increase and diversify Malawi’s export industries:Energy, urban water (Blantyre)
Depreciated currency (incentivize tradable sector)
Favorable business climate (severance pay)
3. Integrate Malawi into world economy:Increase throughput and reliability of Nacala and Beira corridors
Simplify import/export procedures
Export diversification will help automatically
Different solutions
Competing Priorities?Exchange rate: appreciated (1) vs. depreciated (2)
Infrastructure: irrigation (1) vs. energy (2)
Transportation: feeder roads (1) vs. international corridors (3)
What should Malawi prioritize from the point of view of long‐term growth?
In addressing these factors it is important to consider the following:
SolutionsMalawi still needs to take advantage of the current commodity boom, however for accelerated growth , agriculture offers little prospects after the boom; for instance
It is rare to see a rich and agricultural country
Long term growth ‐move into goods with higher value added or have high growth potential.
World maize yields increased 2.5 times in 40 years.
China’s GDP/capital quintupled in 20.
Vietnam only took 15 years to increase GDP/capita 2.5 times.
How? Structural transformation away from agriculture.
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30
35
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140019
8119
8319
8519
8719
8919
9119
9319
9519
9719
9920
0120
03
China
GDP/capita PPP$
Agriculture/GDP, % (right axis)
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Vietnam
GDP/capita PPP$
Agriculture/GDP, % (right axis)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
100 500 2500 12500 62500
Ag
ricu
ltu
re/G
DP
, %GDP/capita 2004, PPP$
MCA Constraints AnalysisMCA Constraints Analysis 5315 March 2009 53
ConclusionBinding constraints: Finance, International Corridors and Feeder Roads, Power, Human Capital, and distortions in agricultural value chains. Secondary constraints: overvalued exchange rate,
administrative barriers to trade, and regular changes to trade rules
Summary of Findings
Stakeholder Consultations
• Q&A Session
The Project CoordinatorMillennium Challenge Account – Malawi
Ministry of FinanceLILONGWE