milk market situation - vlaanderen · exports new zealand (up to dec) eu-28 (up to dec) belarus (up...

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 20 February 2020

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

20 February 2020

Jan-Dec 2019+ 0.4%

-4.0% to -1.1%

-1.1% to -0.6%

-0.6% to -0.1%

-0.1% to 0.0%

0.0% to +1.5%

+1.5% to +2.0%

+2.0% to +2.6%

+2.6% to +7.0%

n/a+2.4

+1.5

-0.7

0

-0.1

+2.0

+5.3

+0.9+2.0

-0.2

-0.1

+6.1

+0.6

-0.6

+3.7

+2.1

+2.7

-0.7

-1.4

+1.9

-0.1

+1.2

-1.2

-0.4

-1.0

-2.0

+1.6

Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1

-3.9

DE, EL, HR, CY and SE figures based on MS notifications to DG AGRI - estimation for IT

The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever o n the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 20 February 2020

10 000

11 000

12 000

13 000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1000

Ton

nes

EU* - Cows' milk collected

2016

2017

2018

2019

Jan-Dec 2019/18 : +0.6%

Source : Estat - Newcronos

Jan-Dec 2019/18: + 0.4%

20 February 2020

35.4

36.1

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Jan 0

1

Jan 0

2

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

Jan 1

9

EUR/100 kgEU evolutive* Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to Dec 2019)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices)

Source : MS’ communications under Reg. (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a)

* : provisional figures

* EU evolutive: EU-15 (before 2004), EU-25 (2004 to 2006), EU-27 (2007 to 2013), EU-28 (2013 to 01/2020), EU-27 without UK (from 02/2020 onwards)

20 February 2020

58.5

52.4

39.0

38.9

38.7

37.3

36.8

36.5

36.4

36.1

35.6

35.6

35.4

35.3

34.4

34.3

34.2

34.0

33.3

33.1

33.0

32.8

32.6

31.8

31.3

30.8

30.6

30.1

33.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

CY MT FI GR IT AT FR IE° NL SE EU* LU BE DE HR CZ SI DK PL SK RO ES HU BG EE PT LT LV UK°

in E

UR

/1

00

kg

EU* MILK PRICES

Milk price 2018

Milk price 2019

Source : Member States (Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a))

( Dec 2019 vs Dec 2018 )

: estimated figures for Dec 2019*: without UK

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk,

others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

20 February 2020

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010

20 February 2020

100

150

200

250

300

350Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU SMP Prices

2017 2018 2019

2020 IP 2009 Avg 2007-2009

Latest price : 261 EUR/100kg

Evolution compared to same period last year : +39%

263 262 262 261 260 258

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

BE NL DE EU* Avg. CZ PL

in E

UR/1

00 kg

EU* S.M.P. Prices (up to 9.02.2020)

I.P. : 169.8

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

*: without UK

20 February 2020


20 February 2020

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU BUTTER Prices

2017 2018 2019 2020 IP 2009

Evolution compared to same period last year : -18%


520

371 364 362 359 358 357 349

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

SK FR EE EU* Avg. BE DE NL PL

EU

R/1

00 k

g

EU* BUTTER Prices (up to 9.02.2020)

Source : Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

*: without UK

I.P. = 221.75

20 February 2020

362

261

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20

in E

UR/100 k

g

.

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

Butter Intervention buying in price SMP Intervention buying in price

BUTTER prices SMP prices

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

20 February 2020

EU evolutive (without UK from 02/2020 onwards)

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan 0

3

Jan 0

4

Jan 0

5

Jan 0

6

Jan 0

7

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

9

Jan 1

0

Jan 1

1

Jan 1

2

Jan 1

3

Jan 1

4

Jan 1

5

Jan 1

6

Jan 1

7

Jan 1

8

Jan 1

9

Jan 2

0

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

EU evolutive* dairy Quotations

(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production)

BUTTER

SMP

WMP

CHEDDAR

Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7

20 February 2020

* EU evolutive: EU-15 (before 2004), EU-25 (2004 to 2006), EU-27 (2007 to 2013), EU-28 (2013 to 01/2020), EU-27 without UK (from 02/2020 onwards)


150

200

250

300

350

400

450Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WMP Prices

2017 2018 2019 2020



20 February 2020


200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices

2017 2018 2019 2020



200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/100 k

g

Weekly EU EDAM Prices

2017 2018 2019 2020



20 February 2020


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices

2017 2018 2019 2020 Series2

Evolution compared to same period last year : -1%


20 February 2020

20 February 2020

100 477

4 331 2 743 1 260 749 182 20 0 0

-150 000

-100 000

-50 000

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

Qu

anti

ty in

to

nn

es

Public SMP Intervention scheme (2018-2019)Buying-in quantity & stocks

Quantities In (2019) Quantities Out (2019) Quantity offered (2019)

Stocks level end of month (2019) Stocks level end of month (2018)

0

20 February 2020

EUR/USD1.0867

3 075

2 877

2 789

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000O

ct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Apr

19

Jul 19

Oct 1

9

Jan 2

0

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU*/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news

* EU evolutive

20 February 2020

20 February 2020

3 238

3 348

3 968

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Apr

19

Jul 19

Oct 1

9

Jan 2

0

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU*/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation


* EU evolutive

20 February 2020

4 238

3 9964 040

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000

7 500

8 000

8 500

Oct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Apr

19

Jul 19

Oct 1

9

Jan 2

0

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU*/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation


* EU evolutive

20 February 2020

4 088

3 515

4 238

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000O

ct 1

2

Jan 1

3

Apr

13

Jul 13

Oct 1

3

Jan 1

4

Apr

14

Jul 14

Oct 1

4

Jan 1

5

Apr

15

Jul 15

Oct 1

5

Jan 1

6

Apr

16

Jul 16

Oct 1

6

Jan 1

7

Apr

17

Jul 17

Oct 1

7

Jan 1

8

Apr

18

Jul 18

Oct 1

8

Jan 1

9

Apr

19

Jul 19

Oct 1

9

Jan 2

0

Prices in U

SD

/tonne

EU*/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation


* EU evolutive

453 461

162

218

675751

322715

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2018 2019

1000

ton

nes

Butter & ButteroilExports

New Zealand (up to Dec)

EU-28 (up to Dec)

Belarus (up to Oct)

United States (up to Dec)

Ukraine (up to Nov)

832

880

350 363322 335

172 160171198

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

2018 2019

1000

ton

nes

Cheese Exports

EU-28 (up to Dec)



Australia (up to Dec)

Belarus (up to Oct)

20 February 2020

816

962

715 704

358 374

155128

104

00

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2018 2019

1000

ton

nes

S.M.P. Exports

EU-28 (up to Dec)




Mexico (up to Nov)

1 369

1 539

334297

143 132118 8555 42

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2018 2019

1000

ton

nes

W.M.P. Exports


EU-28 (up to Dec)

Uruguay (up to Dec)

Argentina (up to Dec)


20 February 2020

EU-28 Exports (1/2)

Source : Eurostat (COMEXT)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

102 102

120

135

162

137128

180

1000 Tonnes

BUTTER exports

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes

Jan- Dec 2019 exports compared to 2018 : + 41%

BUTTER exports

2018

2019

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

520

407

648695

579

780816

962

1000 TonnesSMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


1000 tonnes


SMP exports

2018

2019

20 February 2020

EU-28 Exports (2/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

768 786721 719

799828 832

880

1000 Tonnes

CHEESE exports

0

100

200

300

400

500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

386 374390 401

382 393

334

297

1000 TonnesWMP exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


1000 tonnes


CHEESE exports

2018

2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

Jan- Dec 2019 exports compared to 2018 : - 11%

WMP exports

2018

2019

20 February 2020

286

303

227

249

176 181

124131

108115

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2 018 2 019

1000

ton

nes

Cheese Imports

Japan (up to Dec)

Russia (up to Nov)


South Korea (up to Dec)

China (up to Dec)113

86

77

101

57

67

40 39

3035

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2 018 2 019

10

00

to

nn

es

Butter & ButteroilImports

China (up to Dec)

Russia (up to Nov)



Philippines (up to Nov)

20 February 2020

521

671

150

n/a

104 9687 8568 61

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2 018 2 019

1000

ton

nes

W.M.P.Imports

China (up to Dec)

Algeria (no data 2019)

Hong Kong (up to Dec)

Sri Lanka (up to Dec)

Brazil (up to Dec)

331

246

280

344

145

166

142

171

105 104

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2 018 2 019

1000

ton

nes

S.M.P. Imports

Mexico (up to Nov)

China (up to Dec)

Philippines (up to Nov)

Indonesia (up to Nov)

Malaysia (up to Oct)

20 February 2020

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 1/2)

20 February 2020

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

48 52

80 7182

92113

86

1000 Tonnes

China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2019 compared to 2018 : - 24%

2018

2016

2019

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

68

136 139

96 105 9887

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


1000 tonnes

Jan-Nov 2019 compared to 2018 : + 32%

2018

2019

2019

Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 2/2)

20 February 2020

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

21 21 23 21 29 34 40 39

1000 Tonnes

Australia

0

25

50

75

100

125

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

18 14 2240 47 43

5767

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


1000 tonnes Jan-Dec 2019 compared to 2018 : - 3%

2018

2019


Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)

Notice: for confidentiality reasons, 2019 data for Mexico may be incomplete.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

236198 203

259 286331

360

1000 Tonnes

Mexico

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


1000 tonnes

2018

2019

2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

168

235 253

200 184

247 280 344

1000 Tonnes

China

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2019 compared to 2018 : + 23%

2018

2017


2019

Jan-Nov 2019 compared to 2018 : n/a

20 February 2020

Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

106 11395 101

185154 159

1000 Tonnes

Philippines

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnes

2018

2014


2016

2019

2019

0

5

10

15

20

25

1000 tonnes


2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

136155 146 145 159 147 160

1000 Tonnes

Indonesia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1000 tonnes


2018

2019

20 February 2020

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

406

619 671

347420 470 521

671

1000 Tonnes

China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200


1000 tonnes


2018

2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

188142

204 224 224262

150

1000 Tonnes

Algeria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


1000 tonnes

2018

2017 2019

20 February 2020

Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

71 59 60 72 85 85 87 85

1000 Tonnes

Sri Lanka

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

64 74 81 75 86 87 104 96

1000 Tonnes

Hong Kong

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20


1000 tonnes


20182019

0

5

10

15

20


1000 tonnesJan-Dec 2019 compared to 2018 : - 7%

2018

2013 2016


2019

20 February 2020

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

235 236 232 249 258 273 286 303

1000 Tonnes

Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


1000 tonnes

Jan-Dec 2019 compared to 2018: + 6%

2018

2016 2017

2019

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

316440

321

209 223 226 250

1000 Tonnes

Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45


1000 tonnes

Jan-Nov 2019 compared to 2018: + 10%

2018

2019

20 February 2020

Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

78 85 97 112 110 125 124 131

1000 Tonnes

South Korea

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

154 148 165200 205 183 176 181

1000 Tonnes

United States

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes


2018

2019

0

5

10

15

20

25


1000 tonnes


20182019

20 February 2020

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000

8 200

8 400

8 600

8 800Jan

Fe

b

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

U.S. milk production

2016

2017

2018

2019

Source:USDA

Jan-Dec 2019 compared to 2018 : + 0.3%

20 February 2020

Source: Dairy Australia

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

Jul-Dec 2019/20 compared to 2018/19 : - 4.3%

Australian milk production

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

20 February 2020

Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oc

t

No

v

Dec

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

in 1

000 t

on

ne

s

.

Jun-Dec 2019/20 compared to 2018/19 : - 0.4%

NZ milk production

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

20 February 2020

GDT Auction results

Average price (USD/MT, FAS)

Event 2534 February 2020

-4.7%

$3 226

Event 2534 February 2020

-4.7%

$3 226

Butter

+0.2%$ 4 258

Butter MilkPowder

-5.2%$ 2 886

Cheddar

+6.0%$ 4 302

Anhydrous Milk Fat

-4.5%$ 4 626

Butter

+0.2%$ 4 258

Butter MilkPowder

-5.2%$ 2 886

Cheddar

+6.0%$ 4 302

Lactose

+2.5%$ 830

Rennet Casein

+6.0%$ 9 956

Skim MilkPowder

-4.2%$ 2 907

Lactose

+2.5%$ 830

Rennet Casein

+6.0%$ 9 956

Skim MilkPowder

-4.2%$ 2 907

Whole MilkPowder

-6.2%$ 3 039

20 February 2020

milk market situation - vlaanderen · exports new zealand (up to dec) eu-28 (up to dec) belarus (up...

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