milk at retail - midwest dairy foods research center at retail performance, case management &...

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2720 Dundee Road, #255, Northbrook, IL 60062 847.945.1155 www.primeconsulting.biz DOUG ADAMS, President Prime Consulting Group Milk Symposium at University of Minnesota July 20, 2017 2720 Dundee Rd #255, Northbrook, IL 60062•847.945.1155•www.primeconsulting.biz MILK AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES

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Page 1: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

2720 Dundee Road, #255, Northbrook, IL 60062 • 847.945.1155 • www.primeconsulting.biz

DOUG ADAMS, PresidentPrime Consulting Group

Milk Symposium at University of MinnesotaJuly 20, 2017

2720 Dundee Rd #255, Northbrook, IL 60062•847.945.1155•www.primeconsulting.biz

MILK AT RETAILPERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES

Page 2: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Objective & Agenda

OBJECTIVEMilk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

AGENDA• Introduction

• Overview of Where Milk Is Sold• Review Dairy Case Dynamics Performance Study• Observations and Challenges

Page 3: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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MAKING A MEASURABLE DIFFERENCE

CPG COMPANIESASSOCIATIONSCHECK-OFF PROGRAMSRETAILERSSERVICE PROVIDERSCl

ient

s In

clud

e

Build Capabilities

Optimize Marketplace Results

Measure Performance Outcomes

KEEPING VISION, STRATEGY & EXECUTION ALIGNED

Page 4: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Select Clients & References

Page 5: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Select Clients & References

Page 6: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Category Management/Development & Related Experience

• Practitioner, Consultant and Information Provider for 30+ Years

• Co-author of Industry Best Practices– Category Management Process - 1995– Category Management in DSD Environment – 1996– New Item Introductions - 1997

• Hands-on practical experience with numerous:– CPG manufacturers– Grocery, mass, conv. and drug channel retailers– Information and technology providers

• Adapted and applied process (partial or whole), in:– Consumer Packaged Goods for Frito-Lay, Sara Lee, Hostess Brands and numerous other

companies and Associations– Consumer electronics and appliances for Best Buy– Appliances for Maytag– Automotive for Quaker State Motor Oil and Aftermarket retailers– Foodservice and Schools for MilkPEP and School Nutrition Association– Energy for Propane Education & Research Council

Page 7: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Industry Studies/ Reports

Building Customer Satisfaction & Sales –Nat’l. Assoc. of Chain Drug Stores (NACDS) and American Greetings Research Council

Variety or Duplication – Food Marketing Institute

Solving Out-of-Stocks – Nat’l. Assoc. of Convenience Stores (NACS) and Convenience Store News

Examples of Industry Deliverables

Developing Industry Processes & Changing Relationships

Making In-Store Advertising a Measured Medium – POPAI

Scan Based Trading & Pay-on-Scan – Grocery Manufacturers of America (GMA) & Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association (AAIA)

Page 8: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Select Dairy Industry Clients

Page 9: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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• Continuous engagements over the past 18 years by many of the milk industry’s key associations and check-off marketing programs.

• Projects have included:– Dairy Case Dynamics performance analysis developed compelling category story.

Individual projects have led to sizeable space gains and assortment resets.– Topline Sales reporting and analysis of market trends using multiple data sources.

Quarterly Business Trends presentation for the Board.– All Channel Tracking: Innovative collection and analysis of confidential sales records from

majority of industry competitors to provide complete picture of sales across all channels. Published since 2008, with over 30 Processors participating.

– Large scale tests in Grocery, Convenience, Foodservice and Schools.– Economic and ROI analysis, including retail performance– Opportunity identification and market sizing

• Strategic, in-market and executional experience with:– Industry promotion and check-off programs.– Leading processors, manufacturers and retailers.– School foodservice operations.– Trade associations and advocacy groups.– Packaging and ingredient suppliers.

Dairy Industry Experience

Page 10: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Objective & Agenda

OBJECTIVEMilk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

AGENDA• Introduction

• Overview of Where Milk Is Sold• Review Dairy Case Dynamics Performance Study• Observations and Challenges

Page 11: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Recap of Milk Sales by Channel

2015 FULL YEAR5,779 MM Gallons*

-76 MM Gal. or -1.4% vs. 2014-380 MM Gal. or -6.2% vs. 2012

* USDA AMS converted to gallons by Prime** Includes Preschools, Daycare & Head Start programs

*** In prior years, yogurt drinks were Class 1. These products were reclassified by USDA.

TOTAL FOOD, MASS & DRUG

57.9%

FOODSERVICE15.1%

SCHOOLS**7.6%

OTHER RETAIL18.2%

SHRINK & EXCLUDED PRODUCTS/GEO***

1.2%-0.7 pts vs ‘12

Change in: 2014 vs 2012Share of Milk -0.2 pts -1.5 ptsGal. vs. YA -1.5% -8.4%

2014 vs 2012+0.4 pts +1.3 pts+1.6% +3.2%

2014 vs 2012+0.1 pts NC

NC -6.5%

2014 vs 2012+0.1 pts +0.9 pts

NC -1.2%

Page 12: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Milk Sales by Channel for 2015

5,779 MM Gallons*Share & Share Change

vs. 2012

* USDA AMS converted to gallons** Includes Preschools, Daycare & Head Start programs

*** In prior years, yogurt drinks were Class 1. These products were reclassified by USDA.

Ltd Service 5.5%, +0.6Full Service 1.8%, +0.1

Non-Restaurant 7.8%, +0.6

Mass (incl WMT) 15.3%, +0.2

Drug 1.9%, -0.2

Traditional Grocery 40.7%, -1.5Club 5.5%, +0.6

Convenience 5.8%, -0.8

Small Grocery & Dollar 5.4%, +1.2

Military 0.6%, -0.2

Nat’l Foods 0.3%, NC

Note: Individual segments may not add

to total or tie to prior page due to rounding.

TOTAL FOOD, MASS & DRUG

57.9%

FOODSERVICE15.1%

SCHOOLS**7.6%

OTHER RETAIL18.2%

SHRINK & EXCLUDED PRODUCTS/GEO***

1.2%-0.7 pts vs ‘12

NC

Other Gov’t/Comm 0.6%, +0.1

Page 13: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Price Driven

Benefit Driven

Pure, Clean, Simple

Amplified, Enhanced,

Supplemented

Traditional Private Label

Milk $7.6B -1.3%

Traditional Branded Milk $5.8B -1.3%

Premium * $64M +10%

Other Value-Added/HE

$164M +5%

Source: IRI MULO+C 2015 Dollar Sales and % Change vs. 2010

Milk Category (5 Yr. CAGR %)

A Different Look at MilkBenefit Driven has Been the Source of Growth

Organic Brands $1.6B +8%

Plant Bev $1.6B +13%

Lactose F/R $0.7B +5.6%

$16Billion

* “Premium” represents a list of brands sold in glass bottles or high end plastic.

Page 14: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Value-Added (VA) Has Replaced ~80% of Non-VA Dollar Sales Decline Since 2010

VA has grown $697 MM since 2010, while Non-VA has lost $884 MM.

Value Added Milk now makes up 15% of dollars sales and 8% of gallon volume.

Since 2010, category volume at retail has declined -3.1%/yr. (-656 MM gallons), while dollar sales have only declined -0.2%/yr.

Pricing changes have been larger for VA than Traditional milk products.

$7.18 $7.33 $7.58 $7.58 $7.79 $8.20 $8.25

$3.34 $3.72 $3.75 $3.82 $4.10

$3.76 $3.50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1

Price per Gallon

VA Non VA

PRICE/GALLON +2.4% +2.7%

14,31715,192 15,192

13,433

1,759

-884 +697

2,456

2010 2015

Traditional VA-1.3% +6.9%

85%

15%

89%

11%

$16,076 $15,889

DOLLARS (MM)

-0.2%/yr

CAGR

4,2863,820 3,820 3,575

245

-711

+55

300

2010 2015

Traditional VA-3.6% +4.1%

92%

8%

95%

5%4,531

3,875

GALLONS (MM)

-3.1%/yr

Source: IRI MULO+C 2015 Dollar Sales and % Change vs. 2010Value Added includes Organic, Lactose F/R, Health Enhanced and Premium Brands.

Page 15: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Milk 5 Year Sales Trends (Tracked Channels)

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) %

Gal $/Gal $

+4.1

+3.4 +7.6

Organic($1.6 B)

Gal $/Gal $

+5.1 +0.5 +5.6

Lactose F/R($0.7 B M)

Gal $/Gal $

+6.8+2.9 +10.0

Premium Brands($64 M)

Primarily in Glass Bottles

Gal $/Gal $

-1.8+6.6 +4.6

Health Enhanced($52 M)

(Non-Organic & Full Lactose)

“Value Added” segments have positive volume trends as well as positive pricing.

Source: IRI MULO+C

TOTAL MILK($15.9 B)

-3.1 +2.9 -0.2

Gal $/Gal $

+4.1

+2.4 +6.9

“VALUE ADDED”($2.59 B)

Gal $/Gal $

TRADITIONAL($13.4 B)

-3.6 +2.4-1.3

Gal $/Gal $

Gal. declined -3.1% /yr. while pricing ($/Gal) rose +2.9% for Dollar sales change of -0.2%/yr.

Gal. declined -3.6% /yr. while pricing ($/Gal) rose +2.4% for Dollar sales change of -1.3%/yr.

Gal. declined +4.1% /yr. while pricing ($/Gal) rose +2.4% for Dollar sales change of +6.9%/yr.

Page 16: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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% Change in Outlets

-10%

-8%

-5%

-3%

0%

3%

5%

8%

10%

-5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

Small Grocery

ClubLtd Svc Rest

Natural Foods

Grocery

Healthcare

Colleges/ Univ

Corrections Travel & Leisure

Vending/ OCS/ MM

Dollar

Convenience

Full Svc Rest

ALL CHANNELS

Military

B&I

Hospitals

Mass

Non-Rest

Drug

Fewer Outlets BUT Growing Volume per Outlet

Growth on Both Fronts Outlets & Volume/ Outlet5 Yr. CAGR

Losing on Both Fronts Outlets & Volume/ Outlet

Growing Outlets BUT Declining Volume/Outlet

% C

hang

e in

Gal

lons

per

Out

let

Full Svc. Rest. have fewer outlets, while retail adds. Retail store milk averages have declined.

Strongest growth on both fronts occurred in Dollar Stores

Channel Growth Dynamics: Outlets & Gallons per Outlet

Page 17: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Total Milk Volume Change by Type

Virtually the entire decline in milk volume over the past three years came from Reduced Fat Conventional White Milk sold through retail outlets tracked by IRI.

Whole Conventional White Milk and Organic have each grown 30-40 MM gallons during the past three years.

2012 2015

+31.8 Retail *+8.1 Food-

Service & Other Retail

5,779.0

6,158.6

-379.6

+39.9 +32.7

Conv White Whole

Conv 2%/ 1% & FF

Conv Flavored

Organic

* Retail includes IRI tracked in Food, Drug Mass, Military and some Club and Dollar chains.** Misc./Other relates to an undescribed category of products in USDA reporting.

-468.0

-0.6

Buttermilk Misc./ Other

**

+4.4 +12.0+16.1 Retail *+16.6 Food-

Service & Other Retail

-435.5 Retail *-32.5 Food-

Service & Other Retail

+8.2 Retail *-1.8 Food-

Service & Other Retail

-7.0 Schools

-1.5 Retail *+5.9 Food-

Service & Other Retail

Page 18: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Fat Free milk volume is now half what is was in 2010 (-10.3% per year).

Whole milk has grown for last 3 years as science/PR has turned positive toward dairy fat.

CAGR

Fat Free -10.6%

1% -3.3%

2% -3.8%

Whole +0.2%

TOTAL -3.5%

* Traditional white milk excludes organic white

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1,163 1,129 1,094 1,079 1,082 1,125 1,180

1,668 1,626 1,584 1,541 1,480 1,377 1,318

622 604 586 555 525 553 508

697 659 600 536 463 406 356Fat Free

1%

2%

Whole

Total Traditional White Milk in Gallons* (MM)Total U.S. MULO+C

4,150 4,018 3,864 3,710 3,550 3,460

Source: IRI MULO+C (Multi-Outlet and Convenience Stores)

Milk Shifts to Higher Fat Levels

3,363

Page 19: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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White & Flavored Milk by Channel: 2015

Sales mix is significantly different for white and flavored milk. Close to half of flavored milk is sold in schools.

* Includes K-12 schools and Preschool/Daycare.

Conventional & Organic Milk Share by Channel Group

Change vs. 2012White/Unflavored

TOTAL FOOD, MASS & DRUG

61.8%

FOODSERVICE14.7%

SCHOOLS*3.5%

OTHER RETAIL19.0%

SHRINK/OTHER1.0%

5,231.4 MM Gallons

+0.4 pts

+0.9 pts-0.8 pts

+0.3 pts

-0.8 pts

Flavored

TOTAL FOOD, MASS & DRUG

23.7%

FOODSERVICE14.8%

SCHOOLS47.5%

OTHER RETAIL12.6%

547.6 MM Gallons

+3.9 pts

+2.1 pts

-5.9 pts

+0.3 pts

SHRINK/OTHER1.4%

-0.4 pts

Page 20: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Flavored Milk Development by Channel

Flavored share of milk within channel, ranges from under 2% in Natural Foods and Drug stores to over 60% in Schools.

2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4%10% 10% 11%

15%

33%

40%

61%2015 Conventional Flavored Milk as a % of Total Milk

*

* 61% includes K-12 (66%) and Preschool/Daycare (~0%).

Page 21: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Flavored Milk Volume Change

Flavored milk volume declined 3.4 MM gallons over three years, driven by offsetting growth in Conventional Whole in Retail (+7.7 MM) and decline in Schools (-7.0 MM).

2012 2015

+7.7 Retail *-1.1 Food-

Service & Other Retail

551.0Conv 2%/ 1%

& FFOrganic

Schools+0.1 Retail *-2.9 Food-

Service & Other Retail

Conv Whole

-0.2+6.6 -2.8547.6 -3.4

-7.0

+0.5 Retail *-0.7 Food-

Service & Other Retail

* Retail includes IRI tracked Food, Drug Mass, Military and some Club and Dollar chains.

Page 22: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Objective & Agenda

OBJECTIVEMilk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

AGENDA• Introduction

• Overview of Where Milk Is Sold

• Review Dairy Case Dynamics Performance Study• Observations and Challenges

Page 23: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Dairy & Milk Performance

DAIRY AISLE One of the Largest & Most Productive Parts of the Store

MILK & CHEESEKey Anchor Categories, Each Over 27% of Sales

YOGURTRoughly 13% of Sales

EGGS & OTHER DAIRY PRODUCTSRepresent About 1/3rd of Sales

SALES EXCEED 11% OF THE STORE ($60 B/Year)

5.64.63.9

2.73.2

Mix of Sales in $’s

Cheese27.2

Milk27.7

Yogurt12.9

Eggs12.2

All OtherAlt Bevs

CulturedButter

Cream/Creamers

Source: IRI Multi-Outlet Service

Page 24: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Dairy Delivers 20% of Store Profit from Only 3% of Store Space

*Adjusted Gross Profit is defined as: (Sales less Cost of Goods) + Trade and Terms**True Profit = gross profit plus trade spending, less Activity Based Costs such as stocking, space, transportation.

Share of Sales Space & Profit

Note: Pharmacy not included.

Source: Willard Bishop 2015 Grocery SuperStudyTM

Linear Feet Sales

Adjusted Gross Profit*

True Profit**

Grocery 32% 27% 23% 23%Produce 4% 12% 16% 20%

DAIRY 3% 10% 11% 20%Frozen 7% 7% 7% 10%

Meat 2% 8% 6% 8%Liquor 3% 7% 4% 7%

GM 19% 10% 10% 6%Deli & Foodservice 2% 6% 9% 4%

Packaged Deli 1% 2% 2% 4%HBC 8% 5% 5% 3%

Seafood 0% 1% 1% -1%Floral 17% 1% 1% -2%

Bakery 2% 2% 4% -3%

Page 25: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Dairy is Super Efficient & Delivers One of the Best ROI's

3 Key Leading Measures

Source: Willard Bishop 2015 Grocery SuperStudyTM

% SKUs Selling <1 Unit/Store/Week

Avg Days of Supply on Shelf

Gross Margin Return on Inventory Investment

Produce 35% 6 $50.43Bakery 38% 9 $29.23

Deli & Foodservice 40% 14 $27.04DAIRY 6% 6 $25.86

Meal 39% 7 $17.52Floral 52% 21 $17.22

Packaged Deli 4% 10 $16.54Frozen 14% 19 $10.80

Seafood 45% 17 $9.51Grocery 22% 18 $8.02

GM 80% 52 $5.13Liquor 47% 21 $3.30

HBC 73% 57 $2.47

Gross Margin per$ of Inventory (GMROII)

Note: Annual Gross Margin (Profit) per dollar of inventory on the shelf

Page 26: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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GMROII Calculation

ROII = (Margin x Turns) ÷ (1 - Margin)

Example: Assume a product cost the retailer $1.00 and is retailed for $1.50:

Margin = $1.50 - $1.00= $.50

If the product turned 52 times annually:

ROII = ($.50 x 52) ÷ (1.50 - $1.00) = $26 ÷ $1 = $26

----------------------------

Conclusion:For every $1.00 of inventory,

the retailer realizes $26 of profit annually.

If the product turned 104 times each year GMROII = $52.

Page 27: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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GMROII: Gross Margin Return on Inventory Investment

Measure ties together key performance drivers.

Page 28: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Consumer Analytic “Tree” - Ways to Drive Volume Sales

Volume Sales

% of HH Buying“Penetration”

Volume per Buyer“Buying Rate”

Volume per Purchase Occasion

“Purchase Size”

Purchase Occasion per Buyer

“Purchase Frequency”

How much does the average household

buy over time?

Buy More on Existing Milk Trips

Milk is already bought by

95+% of HH’s

More Trips with Milk

2 Ways to Grow Milk

Page 29: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Baskets With Milk & Dairy are Larger & More Profitable

23%

64%

87%

10 or Less 11-20 Items 21+

• They are larger and more valuable.

• 87% of “big baskets” contain a Dairy Aisle item, 46% contain milk.

• While smaller baskets are less likely to contain dairy aisle products, they are more valuable when they do.

Small Basket: Average Size & Ring(10 Items or Less with/without Dairy)

% of Baskets Containing Any Dairy Aisle Product

Any Milk Item 10% 26% 46%

Average Penny Profit per Basket

With Milk $5.74 $14.60 $37.61

Without Milk 5.17 13.96 30.58

Difference 0.57 0.63 7.03

Note: Assumes average store adjusted gross margin of 31.9%

% of Baskets Basket Size Basket Ring

With Dairy 23% 5.1 $17.03

Without 77% 3.0 $14.65

Source: 2015 Willard Bishop, LLC shopper database representing 371 stores, 20 million households, 600MM transactions, across 21 states

Page 30: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Milk Leads Dairy Case in Space Productivity

Most category sales trail off as space grows; Milk is the exception.

Cheese, $16,757

Dairy Alt Bevs, $1,996

Fluid Milk, $16,616

Margarine Or Butter, $4,911

Yogurt, $11,553

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 103

109

115

121

127

133

139

145

151

157

163

169

175

181

187

193

199

205

Sales $ Productivity Curve (Weekly Sales $)

Cheese Cream or Creamer Cultured Dairy Alt Bevs Eggs Fluid Milk Margarine Or Butter Yogurt

Category Definitions:• Fluid Milk: Buttermilk, Conventional White, Eggnog, Flavored Milk, Organic White• Alterative Beverages: Almond, Soy, Rice, Coconut & A/O• Refrigerated Beverages: Juice, Drinks, Tea & Iced Coffee Beverages

Linear Feet

(from 97 Lin. Ft.) (from 205 Lin. Ft.)

Source: Willard Bishop 2015 Grocery SuperStudyTM

Page 31: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Milk & Eggs have the Lowest Days Supply & Deliver Highest ROII

Space decisions and strong sales performance leads to the lowest DOS in the store.

Dairy Department Days-of-Supply(Avg. DOS) Average AGMROII*

AGMROII is Average Gross MarginReturn on Inventory Investment

Dairy Case Avg AGMROII is $25.86

Source: Willard Bishop 2015 Grocery SuperStudyTM

10.4

10.1

7.3

6.1

6.0

5.8

4.9

2.6

2.3

Margarine/Butter

Cheese

Dairy Alt Bevs

Cream/Creamer

Cultured

Yogurt

Rfg Bevs

Fluid Milk

Eggs

Dairy Aisle Average DOS: 6

Avg AGMROII

Eggs $82.94

Fluid Milk $55.35

Cream/Creamer $34.38

Rfg Bevs $29.37

Cultured $28.64

Yogurt $24.86

Dairy Alt Bevs $24.25

Cheese $17.71

Margarine/Butter $16.66

Category Definitions:• Fluid Milk: Buttermilk, Conventional White, Eggnog, Flavored Milk, Organic White• Alterative Beverages: Almond, Soy, Rice, Coconut & A/O• Refrigerated Beverages: Juice, Drinks, Tea & Iced Coffee Beverages

Page 32: MILK AT RETAIL - Midwest Dairy Foods Research Center AT RETAIL PERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES 2 Objective & Agenda OBJECTIVE Milk at Retail: Performance, Management & Challenges

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Key Performance Indicators

Milk excels in the most important KPI’s, yet Days of Supply are dangerously low – requiring multiple re-stockings each weekend.

Within Milk Case Other Parts of Dairy Case

Milk Almond Soy Cheese Yogurt Rfg Baking Rfg Juice

Linear Feet 97 13 7 210 180 66 108

SKU’s in Avg Store* 86 26 12

Wkly Sales per Ft $171 $102 $59 $80 $64 $37 $70

Wkly Gross Profit per Ft $48 $31 $18 $24 $20 $11 $19

Days of Supply 1.5 Gal

5.9 7.8 10.2 5.8 13.2 4.92.3 HG

GMROII $55 $30 $21 $18 $25 $11 $29

Source: IRI Panel, Bishop 2015 Grocery SuperStudyTM, Prime Consulting, *IRI Grocery

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How Can We Optimize the Case Today?

REMEDY OUT OF STOCKS

INCREASE DAYS OF SUPPLY

MAKE SPACE FOR NEW PRODUCTS

1 2 3

LEVERAGE POWERFUL MERCHANDISING OPPORTUNITIESFROM BRANDS AND INDUSTRY PROGRAMS4

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Milk is a Trip Driver

Frequency of buying milk, also telegraphs the “in-stock” condition of the store. • Extremely low Days of Supply

risks out-of-stocks every Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

• Mid-day restocking is required, but not always realized … Leaving consumer perception of store at risk.

What does restocking cost and how much is lost in consumer loyalty/sales and store profitability from out-of-stocks?

Source: Chicago Suburb, Wednesday 5pm, January 2016

1

Source: IRI Panel, Bishop Shopper Database, Prime Consulting

Being Out-of-Stock Hurts Shopper Satisfaction

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Space Reduction + Out-of-Stocks: Weekly Battle Causing Lost Sales

Chicago Suburb, Thursday 9AM - Normal Fall Week Midwestern City Monday 4-8 pm

1

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Retailers Lose $ When Out-of-Stock

Roughly half of the milk category must be restocked every Fri., Sat. and Sun. The praise of high turns easily turns into the nightmare of upset shoppers.

More restocking is costly* and not the solution. Recent study by milk industry and leading consultants documented that retailers lose when under spacing milk (and over spacing other parts of Dairy). Milk loses sales faster then others gain.

Retailers lose $1,800 - $3,000 per shelf (annual per store) by converting that last Milk shelf to Alternatives. Time to “reset” case and balance inventory/DOS.

Source: FMI/GMA Study & Bishop SuperStudy values

* Costs $10-24/store/week Projected by Willard Bishop and Prime Consulting based on time studies, labor costs of $24.40/hr. 2015 sales rates, incremental work for extra stocking and range of days involved each week.

1

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What Makes Milk a Star?

Translates to:• Proper days (3-4) of supply for traditional milk (means 1-1.5 days on weekend)• 5-7 days for Value-Added due to variability of demand from week-to-week,

uniqueness of items (some do not have substitutes), often limited back stock and supply chain.

• Top quality products desired by consumers that sell quickly and profitably. That means inventory that turns.

• High inventory turns are your friend delivering more profits faster … until they get too high and then they become a nightmare … out-of-stocks and dissatisfied shoppers.

• The key is finding the ‘sweet spot’ in the middle:− Fast turns with good profits, while always available to

shoppers.

2

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Milk Outperforms Alternatives 2The ‘slowest’ selling two feet (aka “Last Two Feet”) of Milk delivery 3-4X that of Almond and 6X that of Soy.

Soy continues to decline, a weak performer whose space and variety needs reducing. Almond growth has slowed – space performance has declined as well.

$67.14

$20.35

$14.10

Adjusted Gross Profit for Last 2 Feet*Weekly Sales

$249.20 CONV WHITE MILK

$70.70 ALMOND

$41.98 SOY

* Performance of the Last (worst) two feet (1 shelf in 1 door)

Source: Willard Bishop 2015 Grocery SuperStudyTM & Prime Consulting

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Innovation in Many Sections 3

In recent years, Innovation has come to many sections of the Milk case. Over the past four years:

• Lactose F/R has risen +42% or $239 mm in sales

• Health Enhanced +73% or $170 mm

• Single Serve Flavors +30%, $171 mm (60% longer shelf life)

• Organic

Together, they representnearly $500 Million

in sales.

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High Impact Opportunities in Market 4

Nutrient Powerhouse

8 Grams of High Protein

Built with Chocolate Milk

The Great AmericanMilk Drive

Official Team USA Sponsorship

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Analysis conducted for a major Midwestern grocery chain. The goals were to:• Understand performance compared to recent national study.• Identify ways to improve/optimize milk case (find the ‘sweet spot’).• Optimize Space and Assortment using decision criteria set with you.

Funded by

Dairy Case Analysis Case Study

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• New store opened with these principles in the plan-o-gram. Milk went from 8 to 11 doors (Creamers, Cultured and Cheese each declined by a door).

• Initial wave of remodels are on-track.

Dairy Case Analysis Case Study

Analysis Results

Space reallocation delivers an incremental 4-5 points in sales (conservative) across retailer stores and incremental profit of roughly $17-18,000 per store.

Retailer Management Reaction

Upon seeing results, management said, “A new store opens in less than 6 weeks, can you put this in place in time … and how about the 4 remodels coming in Q1 and Q2?”

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• Definition of “Milk”?• Value Added Growing• Traditional PL Not Growing• Unique Segment Support• Space – Shelf & Mind

Observations & Challenges from a Local Town Store

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2720 Dundee Road, #255, Northbrook, IL 60062 • 847.945.1155 • www.primeconsulting.biz

THANK YOU!

Milk Symposium at University of MinnesotaJuly 20, 2017

2720 Dundee Rd #255, Northbrook, IL 60062•847.945.1155•www.primeconsulting.biz

MILK AT RETAILPERFORMANCE, CASE MANAGEMENT & CHALLENGES