MiKlip Status seminar 1-3 March 2017

Harnack Haus, Berlin

AGENDA

Version 21 Feb 2017

© Max Planck Gesellschaft

http://www.harnackhaus-berlin.mpg.de/

MiKlip Status seminar 1-3 March 2017 – AGENDA – Version 21 Feb 2017

Talks are schedule to leave time for 5-10 Minutes of discussion. Poster format: A0 portrait, Poster Location: Goethe-Saal: SQ, EVA, Lobby: IMP, USE, PRO

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Wednesday 1 March

09:00 12:00 Module D (Humboldt Zim.), Module C (Mozart Zim.) Coffee break~ 10:15

12:00 13:30 Registration and lunch for all Planck-Lobby

13:30 15:15 Opening session Goethe-Saal

10 min Intro BMBF/Jochem/Freja

45 min Overview talk on MiKlip Jochem Marotzke – MPI-M

45 min Using seasonal re-forecast ensembles to assess the role of internal variability on decadal time scales

Franco Molteni - ECMWF (invited speaker)

Coffee break Planck-Lobby

15:45 17:15 Topic "Status quo" (SQ) (Posters Thursday) Goethe-Saal

30 min The pre-operational global decadal climate prediction system - Status and International Programs

Wolfgang Müller - MPI-M

30 min The MiKlip regional climate prediction system Hendrik Feldmann - KIT

30 min Discussion

18:30 - Dinner in Harnack Haus Restaurant

Thursday 2 March

09:00 10:30 Topic "User-interaction and user-relevant information" (USE) Goethe Saal

30 min The forecast webpage - the epic journey Freja Vamborg - MPI-M

60 min Discussion and posters on this topic Planck-Lobby

Coffee break

11:00 12:30 Topic "Improving the building blocks of the prediction system" (IMP)

30 min Ensemble generation and initialisation Johanna Baehr – Uni HH

60 min Discussion and posters on this topic Planck-Lobby

Lunch Restaurant

14:00 15:45 Topic "Evaluation and a posteriori adjustments" (EVA) Goethe Saal

30 min Bias adjustment: are complex methods worth it? Jens Grieger – FUB

15 min Intros to the three BGs All BG Leaders

60 min Discussion and posters on EVA and on SQ Goethe-Saal

Coffee break Planck-Lobby

16:00 18:00 Break-out group sessions (For rooms and descriptions see following pages)

19:00 - Dinner in Gaststätte Eierschale (see pages 8&9)

Friday 3 March

09:00 11:00 Topic "Processes on global and regional scales" (PRO) Goethe Saal

30 min The Sub Polar Gyre: Mechanisms and impacts on decadal-scale variations in the North Atlantic region

Johann Jungclaus – MPI-M

30 min Assessing and understanding the role of stratospheric changes on decadal climate prediction

Martin Dameris – DLR

1h Discussion and posters on this topic Planck-Lobby

Coffee break

11:30 13:15 BG discussion and final wrap-up Goethe Saal

90 min BG1, BG2, BG3 short summary (ca- 5-10 Min + ca. 20 min discussion)

15 min General discussion / wrap-up

Lunch Restaurant

14:30 17:30 Steering committee meeting (closed session) Room: TBC

MiKlip Status seminar 1-3 March 2017 – AGENDA – Version 21 Feb 2017

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Over-arching topics for the meeting

Talks, posters and break-out groups (BG) are organised according to the following five topics:

"Status quo" (SQ), "Evaluation and a posteriori adjustments" (EVA), "Improving the building blocks

of the prediction system" (IMP), "User-interaction and user-relevant information" (USE) and

"Processes on global and regional scales" (PRO).

With these topics we aim to break-up the module structures and find common themes between

the modules in order to stimulate discussion between work packages and across modules.

Topic descriptions

Topic "Status quo" (SQ)

What is the state of the global and regional decadal prediction systems and their performance,

current infrastructure and plans. But also: skill comparisons of previous systems (e.g. using the

standard evaluation from MURCSS)

For this topic there is no BG planned.

Topic "Evaluation and a posteriori adjustments" (EVA)

Evaluation methods, methods for a posteriori adjustments, …

BG: Towards a MiKlip standard for evaluation and a posteriori adjustments

Lead: Jens Grieger & Rita Glowienka-Hense Room: Lynen-Zimmer

• How do we extend the current standard evaluation (based on Goddard)? How to include e.g.

different skill measures, observational reference datasets, and cross validation?

• Is it possible to give general recommendations for a posteriori adjustment for different

variables, and different spatial and temporal aggregation?

• What is the time-line and what are the criteria to include developments in the next version

of the MiKlip forecast website? Other time-lines?

Topic "Improving the building blocks of the prediction system" (IMP)

Assimilation, initialisation, ensemble generation, model configuration

BG: How do we decide on a configuration for the next generation of the prediction system?

Lead: Andreas Hense & Yulia Polkova, Room: Humboldt-Zimmer

In order to provide more targeted recommendations for DS4, we would like to trigger a discussion

on how to efficiently prepare, evaluate and implement recommendations from different work-

packages (WPs) across MiKlip II. The BG will touch upon the subject of identifying a benchmark for

comparison of WP findings including model version (LR, HR, baselines, prototypes, etc.),

experimental setup (min number of start dates and ensemble members, initialization, etc.) and

evaluation (metrics, variables, mechanisms, a posteriori corrections, etc.) We would also like to raise

a discussion on the necessity to revise or expand our previous recommendation “practice”; e.g., to

complement recommendations, which are based on hindcast skill, with an assessment of

assimilation experiments. Or to rather focus evaluation on specific climate events, e.g., whether

MiKlip Status seminar 1-3 March 2017 – AGENDA – Version 21 Feb 2017

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prediction system is able to distinguish hiatus periods. Hence, as an outcome of this discussion group

we would like to sketch a how-to strategy for coming recommendations.

Topic "User-interaction and user-relevant information" (USE)

User-interactions, potentially user-relevant variables, MiKlip forecast web-site

BG: Taking the evaluation and presentation of MiKlip's decadal prediction website as a starting point:

Discussing further steps towards user-relevant information

Lead: Bente Tiedje & Andreas Paxian, Room: Mozart-Zimmer

MiKlip's decadal prediction website was designed to inform both decadal prediction experts as well

as interested users on the current results of the MiKlip system. The agreement on the evaluation

methods of the prediction skill as well as the type of plots is a cross-module effort. Considering these

agreements, we would like to discuss further steps and cooperation to create an comprehensive

overview of the prediction skill of further (or 5) user-relevant climate variables.

Variables

• What are the most important user-relevant variables? (Input from user projects)

• Are there WPs who have already looked at or are planning on looking at these variables

(avoid double work)

Evaluation (skill scores)

• Do we have the observational data to evaluate the prediction skill for all user-relevant

variables?

Plots

• Are the plots presented on the website meaningful for all user-relevant variables? E.g. Is the

global mean of summer days a relevant information?

MiKlip is an integrative project (all modules should work together): How can we realise the discussed

user project needs? Who does what, when, and how? Please keep in mind, that our aim is to think of

possibilities to create a meaningful and informative overview of the prediction skill of user-relevant

climate variables. The discussed overview is meant to support the user projects, but is not meant to

replace the co-development of user products. We are not discussing user-friendliness or an (end)

user product!

Topic "Processes on global and regional scales" (PRO)

Focus on results regarding processes relevant for decadal predictability on global and regional scales

For this topic there is no BG planned.

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Posters (Format: A0 portrait + Use MiKlip and BMBF logos)

Poster Location: Goethe-Saal: SQ, EVA, Planck-Lobby: IMP, USE, PRO

Poster abstracts can be downloaded from Redmine.

Author WP Title Assigned to Topic X

Holger Pohlmann, Kröger J., Greatbatch R. J., Müller W. A.

Module D - FLEXFORDEC, Module A ATMOS/MODINI

Initialization shock in decadal hindcasts due to errors in wind stress over the tropical Pacific

SQ

S.Brand, H.-J.Panitz, H.Feldmann, B.Früh

C3-WP3 Detection of potential forecast skill within the pre-operational regional decadal hindcast ensemble

SQ

Jingmin Li, Felix Pollinger, Mark Reyers, Julia Moemken, Joaquim G. Pinto, Heiko Paeth

C3-WP2 Comparison of ensemble spreads from various global and regional climate model data sets

SQ

Margit Pattantyús-Ábrahám, Wolfgang Steinbrecht

MOSQUITO Comparisons of upper-air radiosonde data with MiKlip results and reanalyses

SQ

S. Illing, C. Kadow, et al.

INTEGRATION From model data to forecast webpage SQ

Thomas Spangehl et al.

PROVESIMAC Evaluation of the MiKlip II pre-operational system by application of the COSP SSM/I & SSMIS satellite simulator.

SQ

Kameswarrao Modali, et al.

Module D - FLEXFORDEC

MiKlip Pre-operational Global Decadal Climate Prediction System - An Overview of the current status

SQ

Jingmin Li, Felix Pollinger, Hans-Juergen Panitz, Hendrik Feldmann, Heiko Paeth

C3-WP1 Bias correction for decadal prediction of temperature and precipitation in Europe from CCLM using cross-validated model output statistics

EVA

Hendrik Feldmann, Naveed Akhtar, Bodo Ahrens

C2-WP3 Centennial scale regional climate variability and decadal predictions in Europe

EVA

Rita Glowienka-Hense et al..

PROVESIMAC Correlation and Anova in Relation to Ensemble Spread Score and Relative Entropy

EVA

Jens Grieger et al. ECO Bias adjustment with different observational datasets

EVA

Frank Sienz, et al. DroughtClip Improved bias correction for decadal climate predictions

EVA

Alexander Pasternack, et al

CALIBRATION Calibration of decadal ensemble predictions EVA

Vanya Romanova, Andreas Hense

AODA-PENG Ensemble Generation with Bred Vectors. IMP

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Author WP Title Assigned to Topic X

Iuliia Polkova, Armin Kӧhl and Detlef Stammer

Module A, A-Coordination2

Climate-modes initialization for decadal predictions

IMP

Markus Breil C1-WP2 Stochastic soil and vegetation parameterizations in regional climate predictions

IMP

Gereon Gollan et al.. ATMOS/MODINI Benefits of alleviating the North Atlantic cold bias in a coupled climate model using FFC - and status of FFC in the MPI-ESM

IMP

C. Kadow , S. Illing , I. Kröner, U. Ulbrich, and U. Cubasch

INTEGRATION Can decadal predictions be improved by a ensemble dispersion filter?

IMP

Ion Matei et al. Module A, A-Coordination2

CESAM and its skill in simulating the Earth climate

IMP

Anika Obermann, et al.

C1-WP1 Initialization tests of regional predictions with coupled Mediterranean Sea

IMP

Nora Leps, et.al. C1-WP1 Lateral Boundary Conditions in COSMO-CLM - Idealized Test Cases

IMP

Klaus Pankatz et al.. Module D WP2- OPERATIONS

Preparation of the Phase II MPI-ESM-LR forecast suite – a different strategy

IMP

Tobias Stacke, Stefan Hagemann

PASTLAND-2 Assimilating top layer soil moisture data into the MPI-ESM

IMP

S. Brune, A. Düsterhus, H. Pohlmann, W. Müller, and J. Baehr

AODA-PENG2 Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts with MPI-ESM-LR

IMP

Jürgen Kröger, et al. Module D - FLEXFORDEC

Full-field versus anomaly initialization in the MiKlip decadal prediction system

IMP

Julia Mömken, Natalie Laube, Hendrik Feldmann, Sascha Brand, Benjamin Buldmann, Barbara Früh, Joaquim G. Pinto, Gerd Schädler

C2-WP2 Prediction of large climate anomalies in Europe

USE

Bente Tiedje, Andreas Hänsler, Claas Teichmann, Peer Seipold

Module D - IPRODUCTS

What do private sector users expect from (decadal) climate projections? From general needs to specific case studies

USE

Lars Tijssen, Pieter Groenemeijer

STEPCLIM (WPE-7)

Severe Thunderstorm Evaluation and Predictability in CLImate Models

USE

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Author WP Title Assigned to Topic X

Ines Höschel et al. STOC - MODUL E (WP4)

Multi-year variability of winter windstorm frequency and related pattern in sea surface temperature

USE

Andreas Paxian, et al.

SUPPORT Collection of user needs and development of user-oriented products for decadal predictions

USE

Felix Dietzsch, Marc Schröder, Axel Andersson, Markus Ziese, Andreas Becker

DAPAGLOCO Status und Results related to the DAPAGLOCO precipitation dataset

USE

Mark Reyers, Julia Moemken, Benjamin Buldmann, Natalie Laube, Joaquim G. Pinto

C2-WP1 Analysis of user-relevant variables for applications in the MiKlip ensemble

USE

D. Kreyling, I. Wohltmann, R. Lehmann, M. Rex

Fast-O3-II, Modul B,

SWIFT - Fast stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

PRO

Kerstin Prömmel B-Coordination Influence of the North Atlantic on European winter climate extremes

PRO

Claudia Timmreck ALARM-II Alert for large volcanic eruptions in medium term climate prediciton: First results form phase two

PRO

Nora Specht and Juergen Bader

MOVIECLIP Effect of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature biases on the simulated atmospheric response

PRO

Tobias Spiegl and Ulrike Langematz

STRATO-II The solar cycle related NAO signal in the latest versions of the MPI-ESM-LR and HR, and EMAC models, and observations.

PRO

Janice Scheffler et al. Fast-O3-II, Modul B,

Representation of transport in EMAC-SWIFT simulations

PRO

Titike Bahaga et al. PROMISA On the Non-Stationarity of SST-Forced Rainfall Variation over East Africa: Ways to the Development of Teleconnections Plugins

PRO

Hongmei Li, et al. PROCUP Predictability of the oceanic carbon sink: skills and challenges

PRO

Ralf Hand, et al. MOVIECLIP North Atlantic decadal climate variability in a very large ensemble of CGCM runs

PRO

Duy Cai, Martin Dameris

STRATO-II STRATO II: The role of the stratosphere for decadal climate prediction

PRO

Stavroula Biri, et al. VALOCEAN Towards defining a new North Atlantic sub-polar gyre climate index

PRO

Getting to the Harnack Haus

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Harnack-Haus The Conference Venue of the Max Planck Society Ihnestr. 16-20 - 14195 Berlin Phone:+49 30 8413-3800 Email: info@harnackhaus-berlin.mpg.de

Closest tube: U3 Freie Universität (Thielplatz) : Leave the underground station by walking to the

direction of travel and by using the left exit. The Harnack House is 100 meters away on the right side.

Start at airport Tegel (18 km) … use bus 109 towards Zoologischer Garten. Change at Jakob-Kaiser-Platz for underground line U7 towards Rudow to Fehrbelliner Platz. There change for underground line U3 towards Krumme Lanke to the station Freie Universität (Thielplatz). Start at airport Berlin Schoenefeld (25 km) … use bus 171 to underground station Rudow. There change for underground line U7 towards Rathaus Spandau to Fehrbelliner Platz. Then change for underground line U3 towards Krumme Lanke to the station Freie Universität (Thielplatz). Start at Berlin´s Central Station Hauptbahnhof (15 km) … use the S-Bahn city train S7 towards Potsdam Hauptbahnhof to Zoologischer Garten. There change for underground line U9 towards Rathaus Steglitz to Spichernstraße. Then change for underground line U3 towards Krumme Lanke to the station Freie Universität (Thielplatz). Start at train station Südkreuz (9 km) … use the S-Bahn city train S41 Ringbahn (only selected trains) to Heidelberger Platz. There change for underground line U3 towards Krumme Lanke to the station Freie Universität (Thielplatz).

Dinner on Thursday evening (2 March) - Gaststätte Eierschale – 19:00

Gaststätte Eierschale Podbielskiallee 50, 14195 Berlin Phone: +493083228387

Closest tube: U Podbielskiallee (two stops from the Harnack Haus)

Ca. 30 min on foot along the Brümmerstr. followed by the Archivstr.

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Eierschale Dahlem For dinner on Thursday evening the restaurant offers the following menu

Burger 55 Hamburger 7,50€ 56 Cheeseburger 8,00€ Salate 83 Rucolasalat „Toscana“ 7,50€ 85 Salat mit Schafskäse 9,50€ 87 Salat mit Hähnchenbrust 10,50€ Vegetarische Gerichte 101 Folienkartoffel 6,90€ 103 Gebackener Camembert 6,80€ Pasta 120 Lasagne al Forno 6,80€ 121 Spaghetti Bolognese 7,50€ 122 Spaghetti Caprese 7,90€ 124 Tortelloni al Spinaci 11,50€ Steinofen-Pizza 142 Pizza Funghi 7,50€ 144 Pizza Parma 10,50€ 145 Pizza del Vicolo 9,50€ 149 Pizza Ortolana 9,50€ Klassiker 163 Schnitzel Wiener Art 12,50€ 168 Geschnetzeltes 9,80€ Vom Grill 160 Hähnchenbrust vom Grill 11,50€ 162 Schweinefiletmedaillons vom Grill 12,50€ Fisch 184 Zanderfilet 17,50€ Dessert 191 Tiramisu 6,50€ 193 Heisser Apfelstrudel 6,50€