mike tonkavitch, ohio
TRANSCRIPT
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Managing Ohios White-Managing Ohios White-
tailed Deertailed Deer
Michael J. Tonkovich, Ph.D.Deer Biologist
Athens
740-589-9922
mailto:[email protected] -
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White-tailed Deer Timeline
Overview of Ohio Deer ManagementProcess
Goal Setting, Seasons, Permits, Hunters,
Harvest
Management Challenges and Strategies
Topics for Discussion
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Deer were absent
Deer were found in 28 easternand southeastern counties
1st modern season 12 days, buck-only (4-inch horn)
1904-19
1937
1943
Deer program timeline
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1st either-sex season toaddress crop damage in NEOhio
Statewide either-sex season toprovide sustained huntingrecreation
Mandatory registration
Deer Management Policy W17
1956-64
1947
1962
1963
Deer program timeline
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Deer ManagementDeer Management
Policy W17, 1963Policy W17, 1963
to provide maximum sustained hunting recreation
within the context ofminimizing conflicts between
deer populations and agriculture, forestry, motorists,
and the general citizenry who prize the presence and
sight of deer
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White-tailed Deer Timeline
Overview of Ohio Deer ManagementProcess
Goal Setting, Seasons, Permits, Hunters,
Harvest
Topics for Discussion
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Farmer attitude surveys
Public open houses
Miscellaneous surveysOther
County Population Goalor Target
Deriving a DeerDeriving a Deer
Population Goal orPopulation Goal or
TargetTarget
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44%63%% ANTLERLESS
50%
0.7 MILLION
232,000
0.6 MILLION
380,000
OHIO
63%% YEARLINGBUCKS
1.8 MILLIONDEER POPULATION
477,000HARVEST
1.5 MILLIONDEER PERMITS
724,239HUNTERS
MICHIGAN
Hunters, Harvest, Permits, and
Herd Demographics
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Season Dates
Archery 27 Sep - 1 Feb
Gun
Regular 1 Dec - 7 Dec
Bonus 20 Dec - 21 DecYouth (17 and under) 22 Nov - 23 Nov
Muzzleloader 27 Dec - 30 Dec
Ohios Deer Seasons
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Deer Management ZonesDeer Management Zones
and Permitsand Permits
Deer Zone Bag Limit Valid PermitsZone A 1 deer $24 either-sex, $15 antlerless-onlyZone B 2 deer $24 either-sex, $15 antlerless-only
Zone C 3 deer $24 either-sex, $15 antlerless-only
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Timeline
Overview of Ohio Deer ManagementProcess
Goal Setting, Seasons, Permits, Hunters,
Harvest
Management Challenges and Strategies
Topics for Discussion
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Minimum Statewide DeerMinimum Statewide Deer
Population, 1990-2006Population, 1990-2006
700,000
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ChallengesChallenges
With room to grow!
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Licensed Ohio Hunters,Licensed Ohio Hunters,
1925-20061925-2006
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Licensed Deer Hunters,Licensed Deer Hunters,
2000-20072000-2007
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Licensed Hunters who DeerLicensed Hunters who Deer
Hunt, 1978-2007Hunt, 1978-2007
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Annual Ohio Deer HunterAnnual Ohio Deer Hunter
Participation RateParticipation Rate
2001 20072002 2003 2004 2005 2006
551,000 Hunters that Purchased at Least 1 Deer
Permit 2001-2007
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Annual Churn orAnnual Churn or
Turnover Among DeerTurnover Among Deer
HuntersHunters Nationally, 37% of This YearsNationally, 37% of This Years
Hunters will NOT Hunt Next Year!Hunters will NOT Hunt Next Year!
25% of Ohio and Michigan Hunters25% of Ohio and Michigan Hunterswill NOT Hunt Next Year!will NOT Hunt Next Year!
A Year Out is a Way OutA Year Out is a Way Out
How Can We Reduce AnnualHow Can We Reduce Annual
Turnover?Turnover?
Targeted Marketing?Targeted Marketing?
Hunter Surveys?Hunter Surveys?
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Reducing Annual Churn withReducing Annual Churn with
Targeted MarketingTargeted Marketing
The Strategic Plan forThe Strategic Plan forthe Ohio Division ofthe Ohio Division ofWildlife, 2001-2010, listsWildlife, 2001-2010, lists9 strategic issues9 strategic issues
including:including: Recruitment &Recruitment &Retention of Anglers,Retention of Anglers,Hunters & TrappersHunters & Trappers
Retention & RecruitmentRetention & RecruitmentProgram strategies toProgram strategies to
increase participation inincrease participation inhunting include:hunting include:
Fully utilizeFully utilizeinformation from ourinformation from ourPoint of Sale licensePoint of Sale licensesystemsystem
Employ both proven &Employ both proven &newly developednewly developed
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Identify hunters likely to lapse in theIdentify hunters likely to lapse in thecoming season (modeling approach)coming season (modeling approach)
20042004 - Test effectiveness of a full-- Test effectiveness of a full-color promotional brochure on deercolor promotional brochure on deer
hunting & a small incentive offer forhunting & a small incentive offer forincreasing license purchase ratesincreasing license purchase ratesamong targeted huntersamong targeted hunters
20052005 - Test effectiveness of multi-- Test effectiveness of multi-touch mailings (postcards) fortouch mailings (postcards) forincreasing license purchase ratesincreasing license purchase ratesamong targeted huntersamong targeted hunters
20062006 - Test effectiveness of Large- Test effectiveness of LargeIncentive for increasing licenseIncentive for increasing licensepurchase rates among targetedpurchase rates among targetedhuntershunters
Reducing Annual Churn with
Targeted Marketing
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Modeling License-buyingModeling License-buying
Behavior by Ohio HuntersBehavior by Ohio Hunters Ohio Hunters Likely to LapseOhio Hunters Likely to Lapse
Buy hunting license late in the year / close to deer gunBuy hunting license late in the year / close to deer gun
seasonseason
Buy few, if any, additional permits or only a single deerBuy few, if any, additional permits or only a single deer
permitpermit Have limited harvest success during deer seasonHave limited harvest success during deer season
Have low social support (few other hunters in theirHave low social support (few other hunters in their
household or neighborhood)household or neighborhood)
Available ResourcesAvailable Resources
Point-of-Sale license & permit purchase recordsPoint-of-Sale license & permit purchase records(includes purchase date) in a central data warehouse(includes purchase date) in a central data warehouse
since 1999since 1999
Model Parameters included:Model Parameters included: 4-year deer permit buying records4-year deer permit buying records
4-year hunting license buying records4-year hunting license buying records Timing of deer permit purchasesTiming of deer permit purchases
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2004 Ohio Hunting Guide2004 Ohio Hunting Guide
Promotional Brochure
Emphasized deerhunting opportunities(all seasons) TIME
Included maps of publichunting areas &Getting Permission to
Hunt on Private Lands ACCESS
Offered Tips forSuccess & Other
Hunting Opportunities VALUE
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Timing & Key Messages
Mid-October: emphasized
early deer huntingopportunities - TIME
Early November:highlighted other hunting
opportunities VALUE
Late November: trophydeer & last minutereminder linked to Ohio
State-Michigan rivalry QUALITY
2005 Multi-touch2005 Multi-touch
MailingsMailings
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2006 Large Incentive2006 Large Incentive
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SUMMARY of FINDINGSSUMMARY of FINDINGS
Electronic Licensing Sales systems can be minedElectronic Licensing Sales systems can be minedto model license-buying behavior & predict whichto model license-buying behavior & predict whichhunters are likely to lapsehunters are likely to lapse
Hunting InformationHunting Information && RemindersReminders showed limitedshowed limitedresults in terms of increasing license purchasesresults in terms of increasing license purchasesamong sporadic & occasional huntersamong sporadic & occasional hunters Both lacked urgency or significant call for actionBoth lacked urgency or significant call for action
Strategies that most effectively address whyStrategies that most effectively address whypeople hunt less may be more successful (i.e.,people hunt less may be more successful (i.e.,identify & overcome the barriers to participation)identify & overcome the barriers to participation)
Why do 25% of Hunters Churn each Year?Why do 25% of Hunters Churn each Year?
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NEXT STEPS?NEXT STEPS?
Develop cooperative research projectsDevelop cooperative research projects
with Human Dimensions researcherswith Human Dimensions researchers
at Ohio State Universityat Ohio State University Use focus groups from past efforts to understandUse focus groups from past efforts to understand
what worked, what didnt & how to betterwhat worked, what didnt & how to better
communicate or sell our messagecommunicate or sell our message
Concentrate on Avid Hunter GroupsConcentrate on Avid Hunter Groups Up-sell and Cross-sell products to goodUp-sell and Cross-sell products to good
customerscustomers
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Annual Churn orAnnual Churn or
Turnover Among DeerTurnover Among Deer
HuntersHunters Nationally, 37% of This YearsNationally, 37% of This Years
Hunters will NOT Hunt Next Year!Hunters will NOT Hunt Next Year!
25% of Ohio and Michigan Hunters25% of Ohio and Michigan Hunterswill NOT Hunt Next Year!will NOT Hunt Next Year!
A Year Out is a Way OutA Year Out is a Way Out
How Can We Reduce AnnualHow Can We Reduce Annual
Turnover?Turnover?
Targeted Marketing?Targeted Marketing?
Hunter Surveys?Hunter Surveys?
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2005 DEER HUNTER2005 DEER HUNTER
SURVEYSURVEY
MORE WEEK-END DAYS TO HUNT WITH A
FIREARM 46%
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Season Dates
Archery 27 Sep - 1 Feb
Gun
Regular 1 Dec - 7 Dec
Bonus 20 Dec - 21 Dec
Youth (17 and under) 22 Nov - 23 Nov
Muzzleloader 27 Dec - 30 Dec
Ohios Deer Seasons
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2005 DEER HUNTER2005 DEER HUNTER
SURVEYSURVEY
LICENSE FEES TOO HIGH 32%
d d ($ $2 )
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Reduced ($15 vs. $24)Reduced ($15 vs. $24)
Price Antlerless PermitPrice Antlerless Permit
-2007-2007 StrategyStrategy
Double Antlerless BagDouble Antlerless Bag
Limits 1Limits 1stst
8 weeks of8 weeks ofArcheryArchery
Permit Archers to usePermit Archers to useAntlerless PermitAntlerless Permit
Statewide 1Statewide 1stst
8 weeks of8 weeks ofArcheryArchery
ExpectationsExpectations Increase TOTAL antlerlessIncrease TOTAL antlerless
harvest, notharvest, not
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Evaluation of the $15Evaluation of the $15
Antlerless PermitAntlerless Permit
84,000 antlerless permits to 68,000 hunters84,000 antlerless permits to 68,000 hunters
Total permit sales up 8%!Total permit sales up 8%!
A slightly higher than average (18%) number ofA slightly higher than average (18%) number ofhunters (20%) bought more (rather than the same orhunters (20%) bought more (rather than the same orfewer) permitsfewer) permits
Many that bought more, bought significantly more!Many that bought more, bought significantly more!
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Evaluation of the $15Evaluation of the $15
Antlerless PermitAntlerless Permit
Proportion of Hunters Buying 1, 2, and 3 or moreDeer Permits, 2007 vs. 5-year Average
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Mean Number of Deer PermitsPurchased per Hunter, 2001-2007
Evaluation of the $15Antlerless Permit
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Number of Deer Permits in 2006
Evaluation of the $15Evaluation of the $15
Antlerless PermitAntlerless Permit
Percent of Hunters Buying More in 2007
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Greatest Response from the Smallest Group of Hunters and
Lowest Response from The Largest Group of Hunters
Percent of Hunters Buying1, 2, 3 or more Permits in
2006
Percent of Hunters by PermitGroup Buying MORE Permits in
2007
Evaluation of the $15
Antlerless Permit
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Annual Deer HuntingAnnual Deer Hunting
Participation RateParticipation Rate
2001 20072002 2003 2004 2005 2006
551,000 Hunters that Purchased at Least 1 Deer
Permit 2001-2007
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38%!
1%
Evaluation of the $15
Antlerless PermitChange in Antlered and Antlerless Harvest in 2007,Change in Antlered and Antlerless Harvest in 2007,
1st 8 weeks only1st 8 weeks only
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2006 2007
Antlered Antlerless
% Antlerless Deer in Harvest Starts Higher
Shift to Antlered Delayed by 1 Week
Even During the Rut, % Antlered Deer Never Reaches 2006 Levels!
Harvest shifts to back to antlerless deer 7-10 days ahead of EXPIRATION DATE!
Daily Composition of Hunter HarvestedDaily Composition of Hunter Harvested
Deer, Archery Opener to Gun SeasonDeer, Archery Opener to Gun Season
Opener, 2007 vs. 2006Opener, 2007 vs. 2006
C W I A l l
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Money Influenced the Purchase Decision, theMoney Influenced the Purchase Decision, theDeadline Influenced the Harvest Decision!Deadline Influenced the Harvest Decision!
Long Seasons May Lull Hunters Into BelievingLong Seasons May Lull Hunters Into BelievingThere is Lots of Time Left to Shoot my Doe!There is Lots of Time Left to Shoot my Doe!
Deferring Harvest Often Leads to MissedDeferring Harvest Often Leads to MissedOpportunities!Opportunities!
Additional Seasons May Simply RedistributeAdditional Seasons May Simply RedistributeHunter Harvest or Perhaps Reduce It ByHunter Harvest or Perhaps Reduce It ByDiluting Hunter EffortDiluting Hunter Effort
Can We Increase AntlerlessCan We Increase Antlerless
Harvest by LimitingHarvest by Limiting
Opportunities?Opportunities?
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Thank You!Thank You!
Michael J. Tonkovich, Ph.D.Deer Biologist
Athens
740 589 9922