mike buggy –riskunderwriting f4g event19th november2014 · hermes group credit analysts, who...
TRANSCRIPT
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Department / author Department / author
Assessing your
customers credit
worthiness
Mike Buggy – Risk Underwriting
F4G event 19th November 2014
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Bad Debt and Insolvency Matters...
40%of a Company’s assets are
typically in the form of its
outstanding sales ledger
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Sector and Buyer risks: the importance of Information
There is much more than financial accounts and payment experience
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Buyer Risk
Supplier
Creditor
Pressure Unexpected
Change of
Management
Changes In Security
Performance
Against
Expectations
Ageing
Debtor
Profile
Acquisition/
Disposal
Introduction
Of Reporting
Accountants
Deteriorating
Financial
Performance
Profits
Warning Press
Reports
Change In
Ownership
Restructuring
Change In
Funding
Structure
Increase
Cost Of Debt
Breach Of
Covenants
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What do we measure? How do we measure it?
Economic risk
Political risk
Structural Business
Environment
MEDIUM-TERM RATING
Payment disruptions by a company in a given country
that are outside the control of companies
SHORT-TERM RATING
Commercial risk
Financing risk
AA1 D4COUNTRY
RATING
Macroeconomic imbalances: level of development,
structure of output and trade, long-term growth
Political risk indicators: mechanisms for orderly transfers
of power and succession process, concentration of
power, effective policymaking, independence of
institutions, social cohesion, international relations
Business climate indicators: regulatory and legal
framework, control of corruption and the relative ease of
doing business
Business cycle:
GDP + insolvencies + payments experience
Financial vulnerability:
Sensitivity to swings in capital flows and political capacity
to respond effectively
Country risk assessment
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Low risk: sound fundamentals ;
very favorable or fairly good
outlook.
Sensitive risk: structural
weaknesses; unfavorable
of fairly bad outlook.
Medium risk: signs of
weaknesses; possible
slowdown.
High risk: imminent or
recognised crisis.
72 countries covered72 countries coveredCountries
covered
Countries
covered
Sectors
covered
Sectors
covered17 sectors covered17 sectors covered
MethodologyMethodology - Quantitative and qualitative approach
- Use Euler Hermes internal data
- Hard data from secondary sources.
- 700 indicators are updated quarterly
- Quantitative and qualitative approach
- Use Euler Hermes internal data
- Hard data from secondary sources.
- 700 indicators are updated quarterly
4 levels of risk to assess the risk of non-
payment by a company in a given sector
in a given country.
Sector risk assessment
ContributorsContributors Microeconomic expertise of Euler
Hermes group credit analysts, who
closely monitor risk in companies in all
countries, and sector advisors, who
analyze industry trends globally.
Microeconomic expertise of Euler
Hermes group credit analysts, who
closely monitor risk in companies in all
countries, and sector advisors, who
analyze industry trends globally.
Sector risk grading: how does it work?
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Corporate Risk Assessment The EH Grading system
© Copyright Euler Hermes 19/11/2014
Exceptional Virtually no risk of loss
Very strong Minimal risk of loss
Strong Low risk of loss
Good Below average risk of loss
Average Average risk of loss
Watch Above average risk of loss
Weak Increased risk of loss
Distressed High risk of loss
Uninsurable Very high risk of loss
Failures
Good credit gradingof a company and/or sector
� low default probability
Bad credit gradingof a company and/or sector
� high default probability
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Grading Methodology
© Copyright Euler Hermes 19/11/2014
COMPONENTSCOMPONENTS
Ownership & StrategyOwnership & Strategy
Revenue & ProfitabilityRevenue & Profitability
Liquidity & Financial LeverageLiquidity & Financial Leverage
Cash Flow & CoverageCash Flow & Coverage
Adverse OverdueAdverse Overdue
Valid ClaimsValid Claims
Age of the companyAge of the company
Sole TraderSole Trader
High Customer ConcentrationHigh Customer Concentration
High Supplier DependencyHigh Supplier Dependency
Company’s Forecast OutlookCompany’s Forecast Outlook
Trade Sector / industry TrendsTrade Sector / industry Trends
Competitive PositionCompetitive Position
Economic & GeopoliticalEconomic & Geopolitical
Order Book StatusOrder Book Status
ADJUSTMENT FACTORSADJUSTMENT FACTORSLIMITING FACTORSLIMITING FACTORSSUB GRADESSUB GRADES
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Checklist for Advanced Credit Management
� Credit Management computerised and centralised where possible
� Always request written applications from potential customers before opening a credit account
� Establish Credit limits and review regularly
� Always quickly review credit limits if exceeded
� Financial analysis is key to credit management so grade your customers
� Terms and conditions should be clearly communicated to customers
� Strong follow up on invoices
� Deliveries are automatically put on stop if there is an overdue
� Authorities are defined for credit and sales personnel
� Only the credit department can overrule a credit limit
� Collection procedures defined whenever there is an overdue
� Establish a comprehensive written credit policy
11© Copyright Euler Hermes
19/11/2014
Credit Insurance
Solutionsfor companies
of all sizes
� World Program
- Customized solutions for international groups
� Excess of Loss (XoL)
- Customized policy for larger corporations with integrated
credit
- Management department; only large risks are
underwritten
� Policies for medium-sized to large companies
- Customized policies covering domestic and export
business
� Policies for SMEs
- A simple policy, easy to manage
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Thank you for your attention
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