MANITOBANS’ VIEWS ON AN EARLY ELECTION CALLJUNE 2019

WINNIPEG FREE PRESS

MIKAELA MACKENZIE/WINNIPEG FREE PRESS

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

PROBE RESEARCH INC.211 – 10 Fort St.Winnipeg, MB R3C 1C4

www.probe-research.com

KEY FINDINGS

• Almost one-half of Manitobans say Premier Brian Pallister ought to have respected the fixed-date election legislation, a view that is particularly strong among Winnipeggers, older voters and university graduates. Even among PC supporters, nearly one-third say Premier Pallister should have held the election as planned in 2020. However, almost one-in-five say the premier can call an election whenever he sees fit, and one-third say the timing of the next provincial election is of no great concern to them.

• There has been considerable speculation about Premier Pallister’s reasons for going to the polls more than a year early. Nearly two-thirds of Manitobans believe fear of a public backlash over looming budget cuts is driving the premier’s decision.

• Nearly one-half of Manitobans agree with Premier Pallister and would prefer not to have next year’s Manitoba 150 celebrations marred by a provincial election campaign.

• Nearly six-in-ten Manitobans would prefer not to have a provincial campaign so close to a federal campaign. (The federal vote is scheduled six weeks after the provincial vote.)

• Despite these sentiments, the early election call is unlikely to drive significant numbers of voters away from the PCs. One-half of Manitobans say the early election date will have no impact on their support for the PCs, while one-in-five say it may make them less likely to vote for the party.

Mary Agnes WelchPrincipal

(204) 470-8862maryagnes@probe-research.com

ABOUT THEPROBE RESEARCH

OMNIBUS

SURVEY INSTRUMENTThe survey instrument was designed by Probe Research in close consultation with the Winnipeg Free Press.

For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

METHODOLOGY

Between June 4th and 17th, 2019, Probe Researchsurveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000adults residing in Manitoba.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percentcertainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage pointsof what they would have been if the entire adult populationof Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error ishigher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline andwireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had anequal opportunity to participate in this Probe Researchsurvey. A CATI-to-web approach was employed whereby alive-voice operator randomly recruited respondents bytelephone, inviting them to complete the survey via asecure online questionnaire. In addition, 258 randomlyrecruited Probe Research panel members were included inthis general population adult sampling.

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sampleto ensure that age and gender characteristics properlyreflect known attributes of the province’s population. Alldata analysis was performed using SPSS statisticalanalysis software.

The Premier should respect

the fixed election law and hold the

vote in 2020.48%

The Premier can call an early

election whenever he wants.

19%

It doesn't matter to me when the election is held.

34%

MANITOBANS SPLIT ON WHETHER PALLISTER SHOULD RESPECT FIXED ELECTION DATEQ1. “Premier Brian Pallister has said he will call a provincial election this year, even though the province’s fixed election law says the vote is to be held in October, 2020. Which of the following statements best reflects your views on this?”

Base: All respondents (N=1,000)

% who say Premier Pallister should respect the fixed election date

51%

42%

41%

47%

56%

41%

42%

57%

31%

61%

67%

61%

46%

Winnipeg

Non-Winnipeg

18-34

35-54

55+

High school or less

Some post-secondary

University grad

PC supporters

NDP supporters

Liberal supporters

Green supporters

Undecided

WINNIPEGGERS, OLDER VOTERS MOST LIKELY TO SAY FIXED ELECTION DATE OUGHT TO BE RESPECTED

Base: All respondents (N=1,000)

Q1. “Premier Brian Pallister has said he will call a provincial election this year, even though the province’s fixed election law says the vote is to be held in October, 2020. Which of the following statements best reflects your views on this?”

TWO-THIRDS SAY LOOMING BUDGET CUTS ARE DRIVING THE EARLY ELECTION CALL

Q2. “Now, please read the following statements and indicate whether you agree or disagree…”

31%

27%

19%

36%

32%

30%

19%

26%

29%

14%

14%

23%

Premier Brian Pallister istrying to hold an election

before the effects of recentbudget cuts can be felt.

There shouldn't be a provincialelection within a few weeks of

a federal election.

I would prefer not to have anelection campaign during the

celebrations planned forManitoba's 150th birthday.

StronglyAgree

ModeratelyAgree

ModeratelyDisagree

StronglyDisagree

Base: All respondents (N=1,000)

67% agree

59%agree

49%agree

ONE-HALF SAY AN EARLY ELECTION WON’T AFFECT THEIR SUPPORT FOR THE PC PARTY

Q3. “If Premier Pallister calls the election a year early, does this make you more or less likely to vote for his Progressive Conservative (PC) party, or does it make no difference?”

Base: All respondents (N=1,000)

2% 2%

49%

8%

13%

26%

A lot morelikely tovote PC

A little morelikely tovote PC

Makes nodifference

A little lesslikely tovote PC

A lot lesslikely tovote PC

Wouldn'thave votedPC anyway

More likely: 4% Less likely: 21%

PROVINCIAL VOTING INTENTIONSJUNE 2019

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

PROBE RESEARCH INC.211 – 10 Fort St.Winnipeg, MB R3C 1C4

www.probe-research.com

KEY FINDINGS

• On the eve of an early election campaign in Manitoba, Brian Pallister's governing Progressive Conservatives are holding onto a firm lead in public support over their NDP and Liberal competitors. PC support remains unchanged at 42 per cent province-wide, but the number of Manitobans intending to vote for the Wab Kinew-led NDP has fallen by four percentage points since March. Meanwhile, Manitoba's Green Party has seen its popularity double (to 14%) during the lead-up to last week's election call.

• Within battleground Winnipeg, competition between the Progressive Conservatives and New Democrats remains fierce - both parties are now tied at 32 per cent - while growth in Green Party support appears to be at the expense of the Manitoba Liberals.

• The PCs continue to hold a commanding lead outside of Winnipeg, although the surge in Green Party support also extends beyond Winnipeg’s Perimeter Highway.

• The PC party is popular across most socio-demographic subgroups, with the exception of women, Indigenous voters and less affluent Manitobans. These groups are all now more divided in terms of their provincial party preferences.

Scott MacKayPresident

(204) 926-6565scott@probe-research.com

ABOUT THEPROBE RESEARCH

OMNIBUS

SURVEY INSTRUMENTThe survey instrument was designed by Probe Research.

For more than two decades, Probe Research Inc. has undertaken quarterly omnibus surveys of random and representative samples of Manitoba adults. These scientific telephone surveys have provided strategic and proprietary insights to hundreds of public, private and not-for-profit clients on a range of social, cultural and public policy topics. The Probe Research Omnibus Survey is the province’s largest and most trusted general population survey.

METHODOLOGY

Between June 4th and 17th, 2019, Probe Researchsurveyed a random and representative sampling of 1,000adults residing in Manitoba.

With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percentcertainty that the results are within ± 3.1 percentage pointsof what they would have been if the entire adult populationof Manitoba had been surveyed. The margin of error ishigher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups.

Modified random digit dialing, including both landline andwireless numbers, ensured all Manitoba adults had anequal opportunity to participate in this Probe Researchsurvey. A CATI-to-web approach was employed whereby alive-voice operator randomly recruited respondents bytelephone, inviting them to complete the survey via asecure online questionnaire. In addition, 258 randomlyrecruited Probe Research panel members were included inthis general population adult sampling.

Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sampleto ensure that age and gender characteristics properlyreflect known attributes of the province’s population. Alldata analysis was performed using SPSS statisticalanalysis software.

PARTY SUPPORT IN MANITOBA

DECIDED AND LEANING VOTERS

Q1. “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?”

Base: All respondents (N=1,000)

PC, 42%

NDP, 26%

Liberal, 16%

Green, 14%

Manitoba Party,1%

Other, 2%

Undecided: 15%

PARTY SUPPORT IN MANITOBA

Q1. “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?”

TRACKING

Base: All respondents (N=1,000)

53%

46%48% 49%

43% 42%

36%

40%

44%42%

44% 44%42% 42%

26% 27%

20%

24%27%

30% 30%

26%28%

30%

25%27%

30%

26%

14%

18%

26%

19% 20% 20%

24% 25%

19%16%

20% 21%18%

16%

5%8%

5%8% 8% 7% 8% 8% 8%

11%8%

5%7%

14%

April2016

Election

June2016

Sept.2016

Dec.2016

March2017

June2017

Sept.2017

Dec.2017

March2018

June2018

Sept.2018

Dec.2018

March2019

June2019

PC NDP Liberal Green

Undecided: 15%

PARTY SUPPORT IN WINNIPEG

DECIDED AND LEANING VOTERS

Q1. “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?”

Base: Winnipeg adults (N=600)

PC, 32%

NDP, 32%

Liberal, 19%

Green, 14%

Other, 2%

Manitoba Party, 1%

Undecided: 17%

PARTY SUPPORT IN WINNIPEG

Q1. “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?”

TRACKING

Base: Winnipeg adults (N=600)

Undecided: 17%

43%41%

36%

31%

27%29%

33%32%

34%35%

32% 32%31%

25%

32%34% 33%

31%33%

34%32%

30%

36%

32%

17%

24% 23%

25%

29%

25%

21%

24%

27%

23%

19%

7%9%

8%9%

8%9% 9%

12%

7%5%

8%

14%

2016Election

Dec.2016

March2017

June2017

Sept.2017

Dec.2017

March2018

June2018

Sept.2018

Dec.2018

March2019

June2019

PC NDP Liberal Green

PARTY SUPPORT ACROSS WINNIPEG REGIONS

Q1. “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?”

Base: Winnipeg adults (N=600)

* Caution: Small base

NORTHWEST (n=105)• NDP: 34%• PC: 29%• Liberal: 20%• Green: 16%

CORE (n=98)*• NDP: 43%• PC: 25%• Green: 16%• Liberal: 12%

NORTHEAST (n=111)• PC: 38%• NDP: 36%• Liberal: 14%• Green: 8%

SOUTHWEST (n=171)• PC: 33%• NDP: 28%• Liberal: 18%• Green: 17%

SOUTHEAST (n=108)• PC: 35%• Liberal: 27%• NDP: 22%• Green: 15%

PARTY VOTE RETENTION: WHERE ARE 2016 VOTERS TODAY?

Base: All respondents (N=1,000)

2019 Vote Intention 2016 Voters

(Base)PC

(n=353)NDP

(n=194)Liberal(n=168)

PC 74% 3% 12%

NDP 5% 63% 14%

Liberal 4% 6% 43%

Green 4% 11% 15%

Undecided 11% 15% 15%

PROVINCIAL PARTY SUPPORT IN MANITOBA

Q1. “If a provincial election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?”

ACROSS SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC SUB-GROUPS

Valid responses only

DK/NS removed

*Caution: Small base

TotalGender Age

Men Women 18-34 35-54 55+

(Unweighted) (1,000) (514) (486) (234) (338) (428)

(Base) (1,000) (484) (516) (331) (374) (296)

PC 42% 49% 34% 35% 46% 44%

NDP 26% 21% 31% 26% 24% 27%

Liberal 16% 13% 18% 15% 17% 15%

Green 14% 13% 16% 20% 12% 11%

Education Region

HS or Less SomePost-Sec.

Post-Sec. Grad Winnipeg Rest of Manitoba

(Unweighted) (153) (411) (411) (600) (400)

(Base) (158) (410) (406) (600) (400)

PC 53% 46% 33% 32% 56%

NDP 16% 23% 31% 32% 16%

Liberal 14% 15% 17% 19% 10%

Green 12% 14% 16% 14% 14%

Income Indigenous

<$50K $50K-$99K $100K+ Yes No

(Unweighted) (191) (334) (315) (96)* (853)

(Base) (198) (329) (318) (103) (845)

PC 32% 40% 44% 29% 43%

NDP 28% 31% 23% 32% 25%

Liberal 21% 13% 17% 24% 15%Green 17% 15% 13% 13% 14%