migration to 4g - competitive carriers association · another hspa upgrade that will bring ......

Migration to 4GChallenges and Opportunities

Amit A PatelCTO, US Strategic Accounts

April 2009

2 | Migration to 4G | April 2009 All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2009

Migration to 4G: Challenges and Opportunities

Both LTE and WiMAX will offer a new suite of end user capabilities, and there is much hype around the evolution to 4G networks. Many rural carriers have spectrum assets - and want to take advantage of these new technologies to offer high speed mobile data. So, when will this be available in rural markets? This session will discuss the realities of 4G, including a technology overview, deployment status, business drivers, and market challenges.

- Amit A Patel, CTO - US Strategic Wireless Accounts, Alcatel-Lucent

AGENDA

� 4G “Hype” – the Buzz is EVERYWHERE!

� What is 4G ?

� 4G Business Drivers

� 4G Market and Technology Challenges

� 4G Deployment Status

� Rural Carrier Deployment Scenarios

http://s

hifthap

pens.wi

kispace

s.com/


4G Excitement – US Carriers Selecting LTE and WiMAX

How quickly will the US get to 100K LTE or WiMAX subscribers? 1M?

Verizon Opts for LTE Based Network Feb 18, 2009

Verizon said it would build its new superfast mobile broadband network on LTE (long term evolution) using technologies from Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent.

AT&T: HSPA+, Not LTE for NowApr 20, 2009

Before AT&T implements LTE, it plans another HSPA upgrade that will bring 3G capacity up to 7.2 Mb/s. Later this year, AT&T plans to start migrating its 3G networks to HSPA+, which would triple speeds.

Clearwire Puts Down LTEFeb 18, 2009

Clearwire continues to move full speed ahead with plans to introduce new mobile WiMAX markets, services and devices this year.

MetroPCS to Launch LTE in 2010Mar 4, 2009

MetroPCS plans to launch LTE technology in the second half of 2010.

Open Range to Launch WiMAXJan 9, 2009

Open Range to launch affordable high speed broadband internet and voice services to more than 6M citizens in 546 underserved and rural communities using WiMAX technology within five years.

Could Broadband Stimulus Package be a Coup for Wireless Broadband?Jan 20, 2009

Wireless included in Broadband Stimulus bill.


4G Market Forecast

•DELL'OROGROUP

Dell’Oro Group: Mobility ReportFive Year Forecast (Jan 2009)

� LTE+WiMAX: 99M subscribers by 2013

� LTE+WiMAX: 1.6% of total subs by 2013

� WCDMA: Continues to grow, 30%+ of total subs by 2013; 60%+ of total infrastructure revenue

� GSM: Stays steady, 60% of total subs in 2013

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mobile Subscriber Base (M)

GSM/GPRS/EDGE 2,699 3,263 3,563 3,663 3,713 3,728 3,723CDMA 410 486 505 500 487 462 430WCDMA 179 301 440 641 954 1,391 1,8943G LTE 0 1 7 19WiMAX 0 3 7 16 33 55 80PDC 18 9iDEN 25 20 17 14 11 8 5 Total 3,337 4,081 4,532 4,835 5,200 5,651 6,162


4G Excitement – Where Are We Today and Where Are We Going

My life in my handsetFixed broadband life

Within 5 years, millennials life style injected into their

adult lives & enterprises

The Millennialsgeneration born

and/or raised with Internet (11-25 years

old)

Rise of the millenialsGrowing # of mobiles

by 2011, roughly 4 billion mobile

phones !

Rich ecosystemNew applications

MediaPlayers

Portable GameConsoles

e-Car devices

Recordingdevices

Readers(e-Paper)Communicators

Booming demand for broadband data consumptionand rich devices for communication & entertainment


4G Excitement - How Much Data Is There ?

� consumes more bandwidth today than the entire Internet did in 2000

It took 200 years to fill the Library of Congress

� 57 million documents, 29 million books, 12 million photos

� Worldwide, an equal amount of digital info isgenerated almost 100 times per day

* University of California at Berkeley study** IDC – The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe

� 12 Exabytes = Sum of all human produced information (audio, video, text/books) through 1999 (of which 1.5 exabytes was created in 1999 alone) *

� Worldwide Information Tracker - http://www.emc.com/leadership/digital-universe/expanding-digital-universe.htm shows 467 Exabytes created andreplicated worldwide in 2008 **

� That’s 1.2 Exabytes a day (and growing) !!

1 quintillion bytes = 1,152,921,504,606,846,976 bytes (or 1B GB)One Exabyte =


4G Excitement - What’s New For 2009 ?


4G Excitement - A “Crazy Idea” For 201x ???

Navigation

Parking Cameras

Google Maps

Location Info

Heads Up Display

ONTO

Intelligent Windscreen


So, What is 4G?

Social Networking & Content

Sharing

Immediacy

Wireless/Wireline Convergence

Context Awareness &

Personalization

Bandwidth Hungry Applications

(Real-time, Interactive, High

Resolution)

Mobile Market Trends

Next Generation

Wireless

100 Mbps speed

Full mobility

Any network

Any terminal

All-IP

QoS control

High QoE

Next Generation

Wireless

100 Mbps speed

Full mobility

Any network

Any terminal

All-IP

QoS control

High QoE

Technology Requirements

� Higher data rates & spectral efficiency

� Improved OFDMA air-interface

� Reduced latency

� Flatter IP networks

� Seamless handover between various wireless technologies

� Support a range of cell deployment scenarios


Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access (OFDM), IP, Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) advanced antennas are vital components of any next-generation technology.

What is 4G? A High Level Standards View

Long Term Evolution (LTE)HSDPA enh. / HSUPA

IP Transport

CDMA2000 EV-DO Rev.A

IP Transport

Ultra Mobile Broadband(UMB – aka EVDO Rev C)

More Mobile

More Broadband

More Broadband

All-IP MIMO

WiMAX 802.16e-2005

All-IPOFDM MIMO

All-IPOFDM MIMO

OFDMIP Transport WiMAX Enhanced


What Is 4G? OFDMA

Send large amount of data by using numerouslow rate channels in parallel – perfect forhigh peak data rates

Saved bandwidth

FDM transmission with narrowband overlapping orthogonal (non interfering) carriers – used with new low cost, highly accurate narrowband frequency filters

No interference

Guard Band

10 MbpsData

100 Kbps channel 1

100 Kbps channel 2100 Kbps channel n

100 Kbps channel 99100 Kbps channel 100

OFDMA – Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access


What is 4G? MIMO and Beam Forming

Concentrated beam to each usercan lead to 50% capacity gains. This can be done dynamicallybased on the users in the cell range.

Higher throughput with multiple antennas (different data on each carrier) and/or greater coverage with multiple antennas (same data on each carrier).

Intelligent Antennaand Beam Forming

Multiple AntennasMIMO = Multiple Input Multiple Output

3 miles

5 miles

w/o multipleantennas x Mbps

Withmultipleantennas1.5x Mbps


What Is 4G? All IP

Greater Backhaul BW Need� Greater data speeds to mobiles means greater backhaul needs

IP/Ethernet Based Backhaul, IP/MPLS Core, and an IP Based Voice/Data “Core”

� IP/MPLS is more efficient due to shared bandwidth vs dedicated bandwidth with ATM/FR. Multiple users with bursty data needs requires a shared solution.

� Lower Latency – faster “session” setup

� IMS in the core to support VoIP and blended multi-media applications

1st GenerationAMPS

(voice only)

2nd Generation

GSM/CDMA(voice and low

speed data)3rd Generation

xEVDO, HSPA,HSPA+, WiMAX

(voice and highspeed data)

4th Generation

LTE or WiMAX Enhanced

(voice and

broadband data)

1-2 T1s

2-4 T1s

4-8 T1s40-80 T1s

IP/Ethernet Transport

LTE or WiMAXCore Network(IP based for

Data, Voice andMultimedia Apps)

LTE or WiMAXCore Network(IP based for

Data, Voice andMultimedia Apps)

ATM/FR Transport


What is 4G? What Download Data Rates Can You Expect?

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1.4 MHz/1.4MHz

3 MHz/3 MHz

5 MHz/5MHz

10 MHz/10 MHz

20 MHz/20 MHz

LTE Downlink Data Rates

25.812.86.63.91.6Likely

Average

150.873.436.722.18.8Theory(Peak)

LTE Advertises 100+ Mbps� Need a lot of contiguous spectrum to theoretically achieve 100+ Mbps (20 MHz up + 20 MHz down)

� Real world likely speeds will be much lower

Rural Carriers Typically Have 5 MHz up and 5 MHz down

� 100 Mbps is NOT possible with this much spectrum

� OFDMA (LTE/WiMAX) benefit is much less at lower bandwidths

2.96.66.04.23.73.63.753.0Likely

Average

58.036.736.728.821.014.49.37.2Theory(Peak)

3.1

61.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Mbps

EVDORev 0

EVDORev A

HSPA HSPA+ HSPA+2x2MIMO

LTE 2x2MIMO

LTE4x2MIMO

WiMAX2x2MIMO

WiMAX 4x2MIMO + BF

FDD 5 MHz Up / 5 MHz DownTDD 10 MHz


HLR

What is 4G? LTE and WiMAX Architectures

15 |

WiMAX

GGSNSGSN

RNC

GSM

UMTS

HSPASeparate Voice / IP Air Channels

Separate CS / PS Core Networks

WiMAXAccess

Controller

e

LTE

Common Packet (IP) Air Channel Common Enhanced (IP) Packet Core

PCRF

WiMAX BS

HSS

SubscriberMgmtPCRF


Business Drivers for 4G in Rural Markets

� Become a Wireless Provider or Enhance Current Wireless Offer

� Broadband Data Demand

� Mobile Broadband

� Fixed Broadband (DSL/fiber alternative)

� Roaming Possibilities with Tier 1/2s (but when will it start?)

� Attract/Maintain Subscribers Before Tier 1/2s Come Into Town

� Public Safety Mobile Data Solutions

� Leverage Broadband Stimulus $s from American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

� Could turn marginal or negative business cases into positive ones


American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009

Stimulus of ~$7B towards Broadband

� $4.35B for grants through the Department of Commerce’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) – pursuant to a new Broadband Technology Opportunities Program (BTOP)

� $2.5B for grants, loans, and loan guarantees for broadband infrastructure through the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Utilities Service (RUS)

� NTIA schedule: Three distinct grant periods

� April-June 2009, October-December 2009, April-June 2010.

� Funding may be roughly 1/3 of total funds in each round.

� RUS’s schedule: Three distinct grant periods

� First within 60-90 days; two more rounds each about 3-4 months later (similar to NTIA)

� Applicants can pursue funding from both RUS and NTIA, and for the same project, as long as both are not funding the same piece of equipment

� Strong indication from NTIA that projects must demonstrate that they would not be built absent funding

� Multiple small/medium awards vs fewer large awards

We’re All Waiting for the Stimulus Fund Application Process to be Rolled Out


4G Challenges: You Need Spectrum

LTE deployable in licensed bands

� FDD : 2.6 GHz, 2.3 GHz, 2.1 GHz,1900 MHz,1800 MHz,1700/2100 MHz, 1500 MHz, 900 MHz, 850 MHz, 700 MHz, 450 MHz…….

� TDD : 2.6 GHz, 2.3 GHz, 1.9/2.1 GHz………

North America

� 850 MHz (re-farm)

� 1.9 GHz (re-farm)Future

� AWS (1700/2100 MHz)

� 700 MHz 2009



Europe, Middle East, Africa


� 470-854 MHz (digital dividend)

Future

� 2.1 GHz

� 2.6 GHz2009

Asia Pacific


� 470-854 MHz (digital dividend)

Future

� 2.1 GHz (Japan)

� 2.3-2.4 GHz (China)2009+

� 1.5 GHz (Japan)

� 2.6 GHz (Japan)2009

Note: Represents estimated timeframe of when infrastructure willbecome available for LTE deployment – not necessarily devices

WiMAX deployable in licensed and un-licensed bands

� TDD : 2.5 GHz, 3.65 GHz, 700 MHz, 900 MHz, . . .


4G Challenges – You Need AFFORDABLE Devices

WiMAX Has Many Today (at 2.5/3.5) . . . LTE Has A Ways To Go

H1 H22009

H1 H22010

H1 H22011

H1 H22012

H1 H22013

H12014+

Field Trials Early LTE Launches LTE Adoption Increasing

LTE Ecosystem will be

established by mid 2011 or later

Vendor 5 1st Gen LTE

Vendor 5 2nd Gen LTE





Vendor 2 1st Gen LTEVendor 2 2nd Gen LTE

Vendor 1 1st Gen LTEVendor 1 2nd Gen LTE



Wide Scale LTE Adoption


4G (LTE) Challenges – You Need Devices For Your Spectrum

3GPP Device Band Plan – Ones Applicable to US

� Band 4 – AWS Bands [Driven By AT&T and MetroPCS)

� Band 13 – 700 MHz Upper C [Driven By Verizon]

� Band 12 – 700 MHz Lower A/B/C [No One Driving]

� Band 17 – 700 MHz Lower B/C [Driven By AT&T]

Rural Carriers have 850, 1900, AWS and 700 Lower A/B/C

� Initial data cards from established vendors is focused on Band 13, followed by Band 4 and 17; “high end” voice/data handsets will follow 6-12 months after data cards

� No known devices for Band 12 yet (due to interference issues of lower A)

� When do these devices become affordable?

� Will there be exclusivity issues with LTE devices? There are today with WiMAX and GSM/UMTS devices.

UMTS Data Cards Are $60-$100 today (7.2 Mbps)LTE Data Cards Could Be $300+ in 2H2010


4G (LTE) Challenges: Spectrum Migration

Existing UMTS or CDMAAdd New Band

Capacity DrivenNew spectrum application

Hot spots / femto cells

Existing GSM and UMTSRefarm Existing Band

Capacity DrivenNew spectrum application

Hot spots / femto cells

850 1900

Existing GSM and UMTS

AWS

Refarm band to add LTE

850 1900 AWS

Greenfield DeploymentRefarm Carrier

Smooth LTE IntroductionDeploy UMTS or CDMA and

refarm to later add LTE

700

Refarm carrierto add LTE

AWSOR

850

Existing GSM and UMTS

1900 850

Refarm carriers to grow UMTS/add LTE

1900Existing GSM and UMTS

Refarm Existing Carriers

Coverage Driven

Free GSM carriers to grow UMTS and later add LTE

Current Future Scenario

UMTS CDMA LTELegend GSM

850 1900

Existing UMTS or CDMA

AWS700 850 1900

Add new band for LTE

OR

Deploy UMTSor CDMA

700 AWSOR

NothingAvailable


4G Challenges: Voice Solutions

WiMAX

� VoIP Solutions are available for Residential Gateway devices

� Home phone can plug into device, or SIP client on PC can be used

� Prioritize voice packets over data packets

� Mobile handsets for voice/data not readily available

LTE

� 3GPP standards for voice support are based on VoIP via IMS

� The standards are not yet finalized for E911 support

� For greenfield LTE deployments, voice will be initially challenging. VZW and other current wireless carriers are focused on data over LTE and voice via existing infrastructure (e.g. CDMA or GSM/UMTS)

� Alternate solutions like Voice over LTE Generic Access (VoLGA) being discussed

� And, for VoIP/IMS, Circuit Switch Fall Back (CSFB) is needed for handoff/hand-in scenarios between 3G/LTE


4G: US Activity

WiMAX

� Clearwire rolling out in “NFL” cities (2.5 GHz)

� Open Range Communications pursuing rural cities (2.486 GHz)

� Several rural carriers at 700 MHz (lower A/B/C) or 3.865 GHz (with “closed” solutions)

LTE

� Verizon city roll-out begins in 2H2010 (700 MHz upper C)

� MetroPCS roll-out begins in 2H2010 (AWS)

� Cox Cable considering roll-out in late 2010 or 2011 (AWS, 700 MHz lower A/B)

� AT&T to deploy HSPA+ first, LTE roll-out in 2012 (?) (700 MHz lower B/C)

� Many rural carriers are interested want to deploy ASAP (700 MHz lower A/B/C or AWS)

� State/Local entities are requesting Public Safety solutions for 2H2010 (700 MHz upper D)


Potential Timeline for 700 MHz LTE ? (Patel View)

LTE Tech Trials

Initial LTE Deployments

First Customer

Trials

OFDM/MIMO Demos

Vendors are aggressively building solutions in anticipation of a quick roll-out.However, there is debate in the industry on when there will be sufficient end-userdemand for 4G data speeds, that can support the capital outlay necessary for LTE.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

LTE Mass Rollout

Interval from standards to massroll-out has taken 4-6 years for 2.5G and 3G solutions, thistimeline shows a 2.5 year intervalfor LTE (very aggressive)

1st LTEdevices (CI)(data cards)

1st LTE CommercialHandsets

StandardsComplete

AffordableData cards

AffordableHandsets


Rural Carrier Deployment Scenario

WiMAX

� Deploy if you have 2.5 GHz spectrum (licensed spectrum)

� Consider for 3.865 GHz (registered spectrum)

� Consider for 700 MHz (licensed spectrum, but only ‘closed’ solutions available)

� Consider 900 MHz or other unlicensed spectrum

LTE

� If you have 700 MHz, monitor LTE data card availability, deploy in 2H2010 or

early 2011 ?? (affordable devices may not be available until much later)

� For 850/1900/AWS – start with UMTS (7.2 and 14.4 Mbps) and evolve to HSPA+

(45 Mbps), and then go to LTE when affordable handsets are available


Greenfield Wireless Positioning Matrix – United States

WiMAX LTE CDMA/EV-D0 W-CDMA/HSPA

Standards IEEE802.16e 3GPP 3GPP2 3GPP

Market Perception 3.5G 3.9G or 4G 3G or 3.5G 3G or 3.5G

MobilityFixed, nomadic and

simple mobility

Full Mobility (to

350 km/h)

2G/3G HandOff

Mobile Mobile

Standards Complete 2005 2009

Initial Deployments 2007 2010

Mass Market 2009 2012 2000/2006

Spectrum 2.3, 2.5 GHz 700, AWS 850, 1900, AWS 850, 1900, AWS

Modulation S-OFDMADL: OFDMA

UL: SC-FDMACDMA CDMA

Duplex SchemeTDD, FDD (new

profile)FDD, TDD (2011) FDD FDD

MIMO SchemesDL: 2 X 2

UL: 1 X 2

DL: 2X2, 4X2

UL: 1X2, 2X2No Not Typical

Core/LatencyFlat

30ms

Very Flat

10msHeirarchical

Heirarchical

50msBit Rates

Mbps (5 Mhz)

DL:

UL:

DL: 32.0

UL: 14.7

DL: 9.3

UL: 5.4

DL: 10.1

UL: 6.0Voice Capacity

Erl (5 Mhz)160 80 50

Voice VoIP VoIP (2011) Circuit CircuitData Yes Yes Yes YesVideo Yes Yes Yes Yes

Voice Capacity for LTE/W-CDMA with AMR12.2, CDMA with EVRC

Bit Rates for LTE (2x2, 16QAM), HSPA (Rel 6, 1x2, 2008), EV-DO Rev A(1x2, 2006)

Capabilit

ies

TechnologyM

ark

et

Envir

onm

ent

Tech

nolo

gy B

lock

s


Conclusion

It’s been a long climb to get to

high end user data rates via

mobile broadband . . .

But just when we

think we’re

close, it turns

out we still have

a ways to go!

HSPA/EVDO andWiMAX (TDD)

LTE

WiMAX (FDD)

migration to 4g - competitive carriers association · another hspa upgrade that will bring ......

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