MIGRATION, PUBLIC POLICY, and

LATINO COMMUNITIES

REVISED SCHEDULE• February 2: Drug Trafficking

– Talons, ch. 8

– DFC, chs. 2 and 9 (Mexico and Colombia)

• February 9: Migration

– Talons, ch. 8 [again]

– DFC, chs. 4-5 (Central America + Caribbean)

– CR #6 (ExMex)

• February 16: Mexico’s War on Drugs

– CR # 5 (DTOs in Mexico)

• February 23: War on Terror

– Talons, ch.10

– DFC, chs. 1, 3

• March 02: Opportunity for Latin America

– Talons, ch. 10-11

– DFC, chs. 6-8, 11

• March 09: Obama and Latin America

– Talons, chs. 11-12 + Conclusion

– CR #7 (Obama and the Americas)

I. PATTERNS OF MIGRATION

INTRODUCTION

THE NUMBERS GAME(S)• Flows• Stocks• Proportions• Costs and benefits• Rates of assimilation

READING

• Smith, Talons, ch. 8 [again]

• Dominguez and Fernandez de Castro, chapters 2, 4, 5 (Mexico, Central America, Caribbean)

• Jorge Castañeda, ExMex: From Migrants to Immigrants, ch. 8 (Course Reader # 6)

EMOTIONAL ISSUES AND POLITICAL DEBATES

•Ethnicity vs. melting pots•Diversity vs. tradition•Fairness vs. efficiency

NAFTA AND MEXICAN MIGRATION

•Claims and expectations•Preliminary realities•Hypotheses and prognostications

NUMERICAL DIMENSIONS

• ~12 million illegal immigrants in U.S.• 55-60% from Mexico• 25% of Mexico’s able-bodied male workforce now

in U.S.• U.S.-Mexican wage ratio ~ 8:1 or 10:1

2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000

10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 20 000 22 000 24 000 26 000 28 000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2003

Mill

ones

Mexican-Origin Population in United States, 1900-2003

Mx-born (9.9)

1 02 ° 9 8° 9 4°1 06 °1 10 ° 9 0° 8 6°1 14 °

3 0°

2 6°

2 2°

1 8°

E s t a d o s U n i d o s d e A m é r i c a

G o l f o d e M é x i c o

T ró p i c o d e C án ce r

B e l ic e

E sc a l a 1 :1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

O c é a n o P a c í fi c o G u a te m a la

1 02 ° 9 8° 9 4°1 06 °1 10 ° 9 0°1 14 °

3 0°

2 6°

2 2°

1 8°

Go l f o d e C a l i f o r n i a

(Ma r d e C o r t é s )

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 k m

Regional Origin of Mexican Migrants

Geographical Concentration of Mexican Migrants

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Años

Remittances to Mexico, 1990-2003

BORDER PATROL AGENTS

EFFECTS 0F BORDER ENFORCEMENT

• 1. Shifting routes (toward Arizona)

• 2. Increased use of polleros (smugglers)

• 3. Reduced “circularity” (more permanent stays)

• 4. More women and families

• 5. Increased loss of life

Deaths at the Border

2001 = 528

2002 = 470

2003 = 478

2004 = 460

2005 > 500

PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS

•Economic threat?•September 2000 = 38% agreed•March 2006 = 52%

•Cultural threat?

•Societal threat?

MIGRATION AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS

• Context: joblessness everywhere• New entries down (not due to border

enforcement, since 95% of migrants without papers get through)

• Return migration stable (despite concern in Mexico about major increase)

• Within USA, unemployment among Latino men > Anglo men

THE RANGE OF POLICY CHOICE: LEGAL MIGRATION

•Revise legal quotas•Revise criteria for entry

THE RANGE OF POLICY CHOICE: ILLEGAL MIGRATION

•Strategies for restriction:

Building fencesBlocking corridors (e.g., Operation Gatekeeper)Withdrawing incentives and benefits (e.g., Prop 187)Punishing employers

•Strategies for opening:

Augmenting quotasGuest-worker programsEliminating barriers

•Strategies for reduction:

Targeting economic developmentCirculating informationAdditional steps?

Initiatives on Migration:

Phase 1: The Whole Enchilada (January-September 11, 2001)

Phase 2: Focus on Security

Phase 3: The Second Term

•Temporary amnesty for those here and employed

•Guest-worker program

•Eventual path to citizenship

Phase 4: Barack Obama?

What Would You Do?