migration in a world of global change · - current systems still focus on migration/asylum nexus -...
TRANSCRIPT
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Migration in a World of
Global Change
New Strategies & Policies
for New Realities
2
Physical
mobility
Realities of
present-day
migration
Vital linkPolicy
mobility
Policy
responses,
strategies, &
mechanisms
3
1. Changes in International Migration
1. Volumes: more people on the move
Source: UN Pop. Div. Total population
Migrants
Chart 1. Migrants vs. total population (millions)
3258 3,980 4,7206,300
7584
105
175
230
8,077
1965 1975 1985 2002 2050
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2. More types of migration
- Skilled: considerable increase
1. Volumes: more people on the move
Chart 2. Number of H-B1 visas issued by U.S. 1998-2003
Source: U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service
65,000
115,000 115,000 107,500
195,000 195,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1. Changes in International Migration
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2. More types of movement
- Skilled: considerable increase
- Tourism: high number of arrivals
1. Volumes: more people on the move
Source: World Tourism Organization
Chart 3. Numbers of worldwide arrivals (millions)
455.9550.4
687.3 684.1 702.6
1000
1,560
1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2010 2020
1. Changes in International Migration
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2. More types of movement
- Study and research
- Irregular outflows
- Family reunification
- Business
- Forced migration
1. Volumes: more people on the move
1. Changes in International Migration
- Skilled: considerable increase
- Tourism: high number of arrivals
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3. More destinations
- Past: a handful of “immigration” countries
- Present: almost all countries affected
Major movements 1960s
Major movements 1990s
1. Changes in International Migration
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D
4. More routes and travel strategies
- Short(er)-term
- Multi-stage
- Circular
3. More destinations
1. Changes in International Migration
2-5 years
CA B
A
B C
D
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2. Driving forces behind today’s mobile world
- Increase of world population: expected to continue until 2050
a. Demographic trends
Source: UN Pop. Div.
6.076.45
6.837.19
7.54 7.85 8.13 8.37 8.59 8.77 8.91
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Chart 4: World population to the year 2050 (billions)
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a. Demographic trends
- Ageing of developed world’s population
- Younger, more dynamic population in emerging economies
Source: UN Pop. Div.
Germany
11.1%
23.2%
Mexico
20.5%
6.9%
Japan
23.3%
12.7%
Vietnam
33.4%
4.8%
Population 15-25Population +60
- Seek opportunities abroad
- Increase of world population: expected to continue until 2050
2. Driving forces behind today’s mobile world
Chart 5. Age brackets as % of total population in selected countries
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- Increase of world population: expected to continue until 2050
a. Demographic trends
- Ageing of developed world’s population
- Younger, more dynamic population in emerging economies
- Migration increasingly seen as a
desirable life choice
2. Driving forces behind today’s mobile world
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2. Driving forces behind today’s mobile world
- Massive rural to urban migration
- Growth of cities
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- Today’s migrant is not a
male head of household –
more than 50% of migrants
are women
2. Driving forces behind today’s mobile world
48.5 48 48.5 51.7 52.4
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Chart 6: Women migrants as percentage of total migrants
- Feminization of migration
Source: Migration Policy Institute
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- Developed world: open societies
- Internal freedom of movement
- Liberal access for tourism, business, etc.
- Move towards more multi-ethnic societies
2. Driving forces behind today’s mobile world
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- Trans-national communities: considerable
growth in past four decades
- Will act as support structure and basis for further migration
(family reunification) regardless of economic cycles
2. Driving forces behind today’s mobile world
Austria Germany Spain Sweden Switzerland Canada U.S.
299
761
4174,363
4,845
7,296
226
398
895
390
456
477952
1,065
1,424
3,900
4,558
5,133
19,797
30,466
16,435
Chart 7: Numbers of foreign born in selected countries (Hundreds of thousands)
1985
1990
2001
Source: National Authorities and Council of Europe
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b. Economic factors
- Income disparities
2. Driving forces behind today’s mobile world
600 1,500 2,400
15,000
1,50012,000
20,000
35,000
2,500
25,000
40,000
120,000
Albania Phillipines Brazil U.S.
Chart 8. Average yearly incomes in selected countries
Source UNDP
Low-income
Medium income
High income
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b. Economic factors
- Income disparities
- Income growth
- Prosperity has two stage effect on
movement: outbound first, stabilization
second
- Typical migrant not in the lowest
income range. More towards highest.
- Move from well to better
2. Driving forces behind today’s mobile world
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b. Economic factors
- Income disparities
- Income growth
2. Driving forces behind today’s mobile world
36,000
28,000
14,000
4,000
24,000
18,000
7,000
2,000
1960 1970 1980 2000
Chart 9. Cost of air travel on selected routes: 1960 - 2000
New Dehli - New York
Nairobi - London- Cost of transportation
Dollars costs adjusted for 2000 buying power parity
Source: IATA
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- Integrated world economy
- Economies: pace of change
accelerating, requires varying-profile,
more mobile labour force to service
- Money, goods and services flow more freely
across borders. People inevitably follow.
2. Driving forces behind today’s mobile world
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c. Forced migration still a presence
- IDPs: largest form
of forced migration
- Persecution/conflict
- Environmental disaster
and degradation
2. Driving forces behind today’s mobile world
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3. Implications for policy makers
1. Migration: considerably more multi-faceted than
several decades ago. Requires multi-faceted policies.
2. Reflects world with faster pace of change
at all stages of the migration cycle
3. Implications at both
individual and societal level
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4. Considerable momentum behind migration
- Enforcement of restrictive migration policies expensive
- Economies deprived of labour of all skill levels
- Entails rolling back civil liberties
- Not irreversible but considerable cost to “opposing”
it for both origin & destination countries.
3. Implications for policy makers
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5. Choice to be made:
- Manage migration and
harness its positive potential
- Cede control to ‘market’
forces: irregular outflows,
trafficking/smuggling
Balance facilitation and control
3. Implications for policy makers
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- Current systems still focus on migration/asylum nexus
- At international level: transitional period in
managing migration
4. Migration management systems:
in step with realities?
7584
92105
136 142
175
230
4.36 3 0.911.8 17.2 18.3
11.7
1965 1975 1980 1985 1990 1992 2000 2050
Chart 10. Refugees vs. migrants 1965-2050 (millions)
Migrants
Refugees
Source: UNHCR, UN Pop.Div
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- Systems address minority percentage of movements
4. Migration management systems:
in step with realities?
- Current systems still focus on migration/asylum nexus
- At international level: transitional period in
managing migration
8.00%
92.00%
Migrants
Refugees
Chart 11. Migrants, refugees as average % of total movements
(1965-2000)
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- Not well adapted to reap positive outcomes of migration
4. Migration management systems:
in step with realities?
- Systems address minority percentage of movements
- Current systems still focus on migration/asylum nexus
- At international level: transitional period in
managing migration
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1. Link between migration and development
- Remittances: considerable potential
5. Policy challenges
Official Remittances
FDI Inflows
Private capital market
Official inflows
Chart 12. Remittances vs. other inflows in developing countries (billions)
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
22.6
17.7
21.3
41.2 72.3
170.3
-3.9
3.7
Source: IMF, World Bank
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- Skills transfer
- Investment flows by expatriates/immigrants
- Regular labour migration/exchange schemes
- Remittances: considerable potential
1. Link between migration and development
5. Policy challenges
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- Passage
2. Migration as a life-cycle
- Integration
- Long(er)-term
perspective- Immediate
post-arrival
- Pre-departure
5. Policy challenges
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Offers insights into:
- Challenges for governments
- Policy solutions
- Difficulties facing migrants
at each step of the way
- Passage
- Integration
- Long(er)-term
perspective- Immediate
post-arrival
- Pre-departure
5. Policy challenges
2. Migration as a life-cycle
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- Preparation for
migration (information)
- Recruitment
- Health screening
- Migrant rights
a. Pre-departure
- Cultural
orientation
- Language
training
5. Policy challenges
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- Protection
- Security
b. Passage
5. Policy challenges
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- Facilitated
entry
c. Post-arrival
- Reception
facilities
- First-stage practical
‘survival’ skills
5. Policy challenges
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- Integration
- Citizenship
- Harnessing potential of
immigrant communities
- Remittances, investment, business
development
- Skills transfer & return
d. Longer term
5. Policy challenges
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Migration &
Development
Facilitated
MigrationMigration
Control
Forced
Migration
Four pillars to a coherent migration policy
Deal effectively with major challenges
Reap benefits of migration
Address human aspects of migration
5. Policy challenges
3. Comprehensive approach
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Migration and
development
Facilitated
migration
Migration
Control
Forced
migration
Cross-cutting activities
Technical co-operation
Protection of rights
Information gathering and research
Policy debate and guidance
Regional and international co-operation
Advocacy, Public information and Education
Migration health
Return of Qualified Nationals
Exchange of expertise
Remittances
Relations with Diasporas
Micro-credit schemes
Targeted assistance
Brain drain and gains
Workers and Professionals
Family Reunification
Consular Services
Policy Harmonization
Recruitment
Documentation
Language Training
Cultural Orientation
Integration
Capacity-Building
Border Management
Policy Harmonization
Ass. Returns & Reintegration
Interdiction
Trafficking/smuggling
Stranded migrants
Asylum and refugees
Resettlement
Repatriation
Integration
Internally Displaced Persons
Post-Conflict Recovery
Demobilization
Claims and Compensations
Elections and Referenda
5. Policy challenges
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Geneva Migration Group
Global Commission
Berne Initiative
IOM Council
International Dialogue
on Migration
4. Discourse at global level
5. Policy challenges
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Regionalization – RCPs on every continent
Increased cooperation: exchange of data & information
More comprehensive discourse evolving
4. Discourse at global level
5. Policy challenges
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Governments at various levels
IO’s
NGOs
Employers
Recruitment agencies
5. Partnerships
5. Policy challenges
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7. Conclusion
1. Mobility - prevalent feature of modern life
2. Choice: managed or disruptive
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3. Policies need to balance:
7. Conclusion
- and on the individual
- and facilitation
- negative impacts
- control
- positive outcomes
- impact on societies
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IOM Vision
Orderly migration: beneficial for societies
Promotes individual and societal development
7. Conclusion
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Physical mobility
Should be met with
7. Conclusion
Policy mobility