middle east and north africa region

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Middle East and North Africa Region Arab Climate Resilience Initiative Consultations Bahrain, October 6- 7, 2010 Chandrasekar Govindarajalu, World Bank

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Arab Climate Resilience Initiative Consultations Bahrain, October 6-7, 2010 Chandrasekar Govindarajalu , World Bank. Middle East and North Africa Region. Conclusions. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Middle East and North Africa Region

Middle East and North Africa Region

Arab Climate Resilience Initiative Consultations

Bahrain, October 6-7, 2010

Chandrasekar Govindarajalu, World Bank

Page 2: Middle East and North Africa Region

2

Conclusions

Need for greater regional integration to meet energy needs- build infrastructure and create conditions to facilitate exchange

Suitable polices and incentives to encourage efficient use of energy, including move towards cost reflective pricing

Scale-up renewable energy to balance the fuel mix and create manufacturing opportunities

Page 3: Middle East and North Africa Region

3

Climate Challenges in MENA

Impacts of Climate Change

Contributions to

Climate Change

Vulnerabilities to

Climate Change

…building resilience and reducing emissions…

Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank

Page 4: Middle East and North Africa Region

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Impacts of Climate Change

The IPCC predicts (95% certainty): 2 degree C increase by 2050 4 degree C increase by 2100 Changes in precipitation patterns Stronger winds (more sand storms)

Combined effects of temperature increase and precipitation variability will increase the occurrence of droughts Maghreb: Droughts have increased

from 1 event every 10 years in early 20th century to 5-6 events every 10

years today

Global models predict sea levels rising from: 0.1 to 0.3 meters by 2050 0.1 to 0.9 meters by 2100

1.0 meter sea level rise would affect: 3.2% of MENA’s population 1.5% of the regional GDP 3.3% of wetlands Egypt: A 1.0 meter sea level rise in

the Nile Delta would affect 10% of the population, and 13% of Egypt’s agriculture

Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank

Page 5: Middle East and North Africa Region

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Vulnerabilities to Climate Change

Water: Up to 100 million people could be water stressed by 2050: Water scarcity is the highest in the world with 75% of renewable water resources withdrawn annually

Agriculture: Agricultural output could decrease 20-40% by 2080 due to dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture

Urban: A 1-3% temperature rise could expose up to 25 million urban dwellers to flooding because of high concentration of population and economic activity in flood-prone urban coastal zones

Health: Climate change can cause a sharp increase in the prevalence of poverty-driven endemic diseases – malnutrition, water and vector born diseases

Gender: Women and girls are at increased risk. Traditional gender roles means that climate change impacts men and women differently

Conflict: In conflict-ridden areas, violence and political turmoil could escalate over resource scarcity ; e.g. water: Nile Delta, Tigris and Euphrates.

Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank

Page 6: Middle East and North Africa Region

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Contributions to Climate Change

Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

Share of global emissions (a)

Emissions per capita (b) Emissions per unit of income (b)

• GHG in MENA countries are high in per capita terms (60% higher than the average among developing countries)

• However, in absolute terms the region is a relatively small carbon emitter, accounting for some 5-6% of global emissions

Greenhouse Gas Emissions in MENA Region:

Page 7: Middle East and North Africa Region

Region Characterized by Increasing Energy Intensity

Energy intensity change 2005/1990

-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%

-10%0%

10%20%

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Page 8: Middle East and North Africa Region

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Reducing Emissions

Mitigating climate change by reducing emissions will require increased investments in renewable energy sources and a commitment to low-carbon growth.

•Energy•Urban Development•Transport•Agriculture /

ForestryReducing Emission

s

Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank

Page 9: Middle East and North Africa Region

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Reducing Emissions: Energy

Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank

Strategic ResponsePromote efficient and sustainable use of energy resources, e.g.:• Introduce price incentives, and develop appropriate finance mechanisms• Promote energy efficient equipment• Establish energy services companies• Reduce gas flaring, leakage and fugitive emissions

Develop renewable energy sources:• cost reflective energy pricing• Suitable policy and regulatory framework• Scale-up investments to achieve economies of scale and reduce manufacturing costs• Awareness raising

GHG Emission• 85% of regional GHG emissions come from energy production, transformation and use • Emissions are concentrated in the oil producing countries

Barriers• Predominance of oil in the fuel mix• High rates of energy subsidization distorts prices• Limited development of renewable sources• Inefficient pattern of energy use • Continued high and volatile fuel prices strain finances of net importing countries

Page 10: Middle East and North Africa Region

Favorable for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)Worth considering for CSP

Areas Suitable for Solar Energy Development

Page 11: Middle East and North Africa Region

CSP Scale-up in MENA: Global impacts

MENA and South Western USA/Mexico offer best physical resources and market access

Economies of scale best achieved there, driving cost reduction in the global CSP market

So major contribution to climate change mitigation

Major potential for concessional climate financing from UNFCCC/Copenhagen Accord

Page 12: Middle East and North Africa Region

Why solar energy is important for MENA?

Oil and gas producers: frees up oil and gas for higher value-added uses/exports

Oil and gas importers: energy securityIndustrial diversification and job creationEntry into global industry starting to take off High demand growth for electricity, including for

desalinationExport revenue from high-paying green

electricity markets in Europe

Page 13: Middle East and North Africa Region

MENA CSP Investment Plan

US$ 5.6 Billion MENA CSP Investment Plan endorsed by CTF December 2009

US$ 4 Billion for 1 GW generation, US$ 1.6 Billion for transmission

Financing from private and public funds, concessional and non-concessional

Modest CDM revenues expected (~ 1 US ¢ /kWh)CTF contribution US$ 750 MillionAdditional US$ 1.4 Billion of concessional

funding is required

Page 14: Middle East and North Africa Region

2

2 Jordanian Medring

1 Tunisia-Italy HVDC

1

Projects create transmission corridors for subregional exports (Maghreb, Mashreq, GCC)

Page 15: Middle East and North Africa Region

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THANK [email protected]