mid-year population estimates 2020 2020 presentation.pdf · population whilst the black african...

Stats SA: MID-YEAR ESTIMATES 2020

Mid-year

population

estimates

2020

Risenga Maluleke

Statistician-General


Fertility Mortality Migration

Mid-year

population

estimates

uses the

latest

available

data on..

to estimate the size of the

population of South

Africa.


To project the full impact of COVID-19 without sufficient trend data will

create a far greater uncertain set of population estimates for current

planning and decision-making.

The impact of

COVID-19 on

conception and

subsequent fertility

will only be reflected

in the reported births

of 2021.

Fertility Mortality Migration

There has been 2657

reported COVID-related

deaths by mid-year

which is marginal in

comparison to overall

death count in a given

year. It is premature to

speculate on the annual

COVID-19 related deaths

for the cycle of the 2020

MYPE.

There is a reduction in

international migration

which is indicative of the

COVID-19 travel

restrictions over the past

3 months. Internal

mobility in this period has

mostly been temporary

whilst the MYPE requires

a more permanent act of

migration.


South Africa’s population, mid-2020 is

59,62 million


52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

Mil

lio

ns BIRTHS

NETMIGRATION DEATHS

+1,17M

+0,17M-0,52M

58,8M*59,6M

SA 2019 SA 2020

*data based on 2020 series,

Births are the main driver of population growth in SA

Impact of births, deaths and migration on population, 2019

For the period 2019–2020 the population is estimated to have grown by

around 0,8 Million


15,49 M

11,53 M

7,01 M 6,73 M5,85 M

4,68 M4,11 M

2,93 M

1,29 M

25,8%

GP

KZN

WC EC LP

MP

More than half of the population live in 3 provinces (GP,KZN and WC)

GP remains SA’s most populated province with approximately 15,5 million

people (26%) living in this province.

26,0% 19,3% 11,8% 11,3% 9,8% 7,8% 6,9% 4,9% 2,2%

NW FS

NC

57,1%

Mid-year population estimates for South Africa by province, 2020


Four provinces have seen increases in population of 8%

or more between 2015 and 2020 due largely to migration. EC has shown the lowest change in population

Percentage change in population, 2015 - 2020

0,8%

2,8%

4,1%

6,4%

6,5%

8,0%

8,9%

9,9%

13,4%

EC

FS

LP

NC

KZN

MP

NW

WC

GP


Population

Structure


0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

Age 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 72 75 77 79

Mill

ion

s

Children and youth amount to nearly 38M in SA

Children aged 0-14 and adults aged 15-34 make up more than 60% of the

population.

Children 0-14

17,0M Youth 15-34

20,7M

Adults 35-59

16,5M

Elderly 60+

5,4M

28,6% 34,7% 27,6%

9,1%

The median age in

SA is 27

Population age structure by single years, 2020


15,0M 17,1M

16,5M20,7M

11,3M

16,5M3,5M

5,4M

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2002 2020

Mill

ions

Elderly 60+

Adult

35-59

Youth

15-34

Children

0-14+2,1M

+4,2M

+5,2M

Youth 15 – 34 has increased by 4,2m between 2002 & 2020 Children age 0-14 and adults age 15-34 make up more than 60% of the

population.

Population growth by age groups over time, 2002–2020

2002 2020


24,5%

27,7%

28,6%

31,1%

31,5%

32,4%

35,2%

36,1%

36,6%

39,2%

8,5%

10,3%

9,1%

9,9%

9,0%

10,2%

8,1%

7,9%

11,4%

8,9%

GP

WC

SA

FS

NW

NC

KZN

MP

EC

LP

Children under 15 within

each province

Elderly (60+) within

each province

67,0%

62,0%

62,3%

59,0%

59,5%

57,4%

56,6%

56,0%

52,0%

51,8%

Youth and Adult

LP has the highest proportion of children under 15 whilst

Gauteng has the highest proportion of Youth and Adults (15-59)

Population by age category and province, 2020


LP8,95%0,52M

MP7,90%0,37M

KZN8,13%0,94M

EC11,45%0,77M

FS9,95%0,29M

NW8,98%0,37M

NC10,21%0,13M

WC10,31%0,72M

GP8,46%1,31M

Percentage of Elderly (60+) within each province

2020, Absolute number of Elderly(60+) in Millions

7,9-8,46%

8,47-8,98%

8,99-11,45%

The EC has the highest proportion of the elderly

The proportion of the

elderly in SA is on the

increase The rate of annual growth

among elderly (60 years and

older) rose from 1,1% in

2002/2003 to 3% in 2019/2020.


51,8

43,8

8,3

6,2

2002

2020

Child Dependency

Old AgeDependency

Burden of care in SA has declined over time. Child and old

age dependency ratios show a decrease since 2002

Child dependency is on the decline as the fertility rate declines and life expectancy rises.

Old Age and Child Dependency Ratio’s 2002 - 2020

per 100

per 100

per 100

per 100


FemaleMale(30,5M)(29,1M) 51,1%48,9%

59,62 million

Approximately 51,1% (30,5 million) of the population is

female.

South Africa’s population, mid-2020


00-0405-0910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+

2,91 M

2,90 M

2,82 M

2,40 M

2,43 M

2,74 M

2,86 M

2,40 M

1,84 M

1,55 M

1,18 M

0,97 M

0,76 M

0,57 M

0,39 M

0,23 M

0,19 M

2,83 M

2,82 M

2,77 M

2,37 M

2,40 M

2,68 M

2,78 M

2,39 M

1,90 M

1,62 M

1,39 M

1,24 M

1,04 M

0,84 M

0,62 M

0,40 M

0,39 M

There is a surplus of females to males at older ages, as

well as a significant youth bulge aged 25-39

SA age structure by 5 year groups, 2020

FemalesMales


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

EC GP

The population profile differs significantly by province. GP has a higher proportion of adults aged 25-39, when compared to EC

which has a higher proportion of children ages 0-14 and elderly within the

province

SA age structure by 5 year groups, 2020 for selected provinces

M F M F


COLOURED

BLACK AFRICAN

WHITE

INDIAN/ASIAN

(48,2 million)

(5,2 million)

(4,7 million)

(1,5 million)

*Due to rounding totals may not add up to 100%

81%

9%

8%

3%

Total by

Population

Groups

SA by population group, 2020

The black African population is in the majority and

constitutes approximately 81% of the total SA population


0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

Black African Coloured Indian/Asian

SA by population group, five year ages 2020

The population distribution varies according to

population group. The white population group presents that of an ageing

population whilst the Black African population presents a more youthful population structure.

Median age lies in shaded age group.

White


22

2625

2928

3535

43

2002 2020

SA by median age 2002- 2020

SA is ageing. The median age in SA has risen from 23 in

2002 to 27 in 2020. The white population group has a far higher median age

compared to all other population groups.

SA 23

SA 27

Black African

Coloured

Indian/Asian

White

Age

in y

ears


Fertility(Births)


Total Fertility Rate, 2002-2020

2,66

2,33

2,30

2,35

2,40

2,45

2,50

2,55

2,60

2,65

2,70

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

On average, a woman will give birth to 2,33 children in her lifetime*The total fertility rate peaked in 2008 at 2,66 and is declining, reaching 2,33

in 2020.

* Provided that current fertility behaviour prevails


Total Fertility Rate by Province

LP

EC

KZ

N

NW

NC

MP

FS

WC

GP

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

SA Average

Fertility Rate is 2,33

2,90 2,852,78 2,68 2,61

2,442,34

1,902,01

Fertility varies from province to province. Less urbanised provinces of LP

and EC indicate higher fertility rates whilst more urbanised provinces such as GP and

the WC indicate lower levels of fertility.


Mortality

Mortality(Deaths)


2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

All

Dea

ths

AIDS-Related Deaths

The proportion of AIDS-related deaths has declined by almost half,

from 30,6% to just over 15%. Deaths peak in 2006, thereafter decreasing to

the current value of 515 804 in 2020.

515 804

Total number of deaths estimated over time vs

AIDS-related deaths, 2002-2020

695 461


62,5

68,5

65,6

40,0

45,0

50,0

55,0

60,0

65,0

70,0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Life expectancy by sex over time, 2002-2020

Female

Male

Life expectancy (LE) at birth for 2020 is estimated at 62,5 years for

males and 68,5 years for females. Life expectancy (LE) has been increasing

since 2007.

The difference in LE between men and women declines

significantly during the era of high AIDS mortality but with

increased access to HIV treatment and care, the

difference between male and female LE increases

reverting to the more normative pattern of higher

female LE than males

Total


IMR and U5MR per 1000 live births over time, 2002-2020

55,5

23,6

75,3

34,1

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Infant Mortality Rate

U5 Mortality Rate

Infant (IMR) and under-five mortality(U5MR) rates in SA continue to

decline. The IMR has declined from an estimated 55,5 infant deaths per 1 000 live

births in 2002 to 23,6 in 2020. Similarly the U5MR declined from 75,3 child deaths per 1 000 live births to 34,1 between 2002 and 2020.


FS KZN NC NW EC MP LP SA GP WC

65,7

62,0

64,6 64,8 65,0

66,866,367,2

68,7

71,0

68,5

There is an average 6 year gap in life expectancy between males and

females in SA. Free State has a significantly lower life expectancy than the SA

average

Life Expectancy by province,2020

Female

Male

SA

8 year gap in female LE between FS and WC


2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Number of people living with HIV, 2002-2020 (millions)

Mill

ion

sThe total number of people living with HIV (PLWHIV) is estimated at

approximately 7,8 million in 2020. The estimated overall HIV prevalence rate is

approximately 13,0% among the South African population.

7,8million

3,8million


Migration


980 398

290 555

112 88161 034

11 554

-29 929

-88 163-189 112

-322 957

GPWCNWMPNC

FSKZNLPEC

-600 000

-400 000

-200 000

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

Estimated provincial migration streams, 2016–2021

For the period 2016-2021 GP will receive 3 times more

migrants than the WC

Net Migration from Outside SA

Net Migration Within SA


For the period 2016–2021, GP is estimated to experience

the largest inflow of migrants of approx. 1 553 162. The economic strength of Gauteng influences its attractiveness to

migrants

Net migration 2016-2021 GP as a destination province

province


Western Cape estimated to experience the second highest number of

in-migrants for period 2016 to 2021 of approx. 468 568. Opportunities of employment, study and quality of life play an important role

amongst the push-pull factors resulting in high flow of migrants to WC.

Net migration 2016-2021 WC as a destination province

province


Recap

15,5

million

Average

LE 65,67,8 million 59,62

million

GP has

highest

population

Life

Expectancy

People estimated to be living with HIV

Mid –year

population

2020

Gauteng comprises the

largest share of the

South African population,

with approximately 15,5

million people (26,0%)

living in this province.

Life expectancy at

birth for 2020 is

estimated at 62,5

years for males and

68,5 years for

females.

The estimated overall

HIV prevalence rate is

approximately 13,0%

among the South

African population.

For 2020, Statistics

South Africa

(Stats SA) estimates

the mid-year

population at 59,62

million.

GP


Ndzi hela kwala!

mid-year population estimates 2020 2020 presentation.pdf · population whilst the black african...

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