mid-term adequacy forecast 2017...updated and improved best estimate of future adequacy conditions...
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MID-TERM ADEQUACY FORECAST 2017
Simone Biondi, ENTSO-E
4 July 2017
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MAF 2017: Adequacy Assessment for Europe
Page 2
Supportstakeholdersinqualifieddecision-making
Developareliable,sustainableandconnectedEuropeanpowersystem
Market-basedprobabilisticassessment…
oftheEuropeaninterconnected
System…
forthenextdecade…
inhourlyresolution
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Methodology
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NetworkInfrastructureAvailableGeneration
DeterministicForecast:• ENTSOs’Scenarios
for2020&2025• PlannedOutages
StochasticUncertainty:• Windspeeds
• Solarradiation• Unplannedoutages
Load
DeterministicForecast:• ENTSOs’Scenarios
for2020&2025
StochasticUncertainty:• Temperature
Adequacy: Balance of generation and load in a network
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34yearsofinterdependentclimatedata(see‘PECD’)
N randomdrawsforunplannedoutages
34xNsampleyears
ENTSO-Eillustratio
nbasedonElia(2
016)
x
Construction of Sample Years
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How to read probabilistic results?ENS [MWh/y]EnergyNotServed:istheenergynot suppliedbygeneratingsystemdue tothedemandexceedingtheavailablegeneration andimport
LOLE [h/y]LossOfLoadExpectation:isthenumberofhours inayearinwhichtheavailablegenerationplusimportcannotcovertheloadinanregion.
Step1
Step2 Step3
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Main improvements compared to the MAF 2016
Consolidationandstandardizationofthedatabase,inlinewithENTSOs’scenarios
Extensionofclimatesampledatato34years,includinghydrointerdependencies
Mothballingà Additionalsensitivityscenario
Alignmentofsystemcostcomponents
RepresentationofDemand-SideResponse
Furthermore:Moremodels- betteraligned
Updatedandimprovedbestestimateoffutureadequacyconditions
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Main findings
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2020 Loss of load expectations (LOLE1) – base case
1 Loss Of Load Expectation (h/y) LOLE is the number of hours in a given period (year) in which the available generation plus import cannot cover the load in an area
Peripherymoreexposedtoadequacyrisk
0 hours0…10 hours10…20 hours20…30 hours30…40 hours40…>50 hours
SE1SE2SE3SE4SISKTRITLU
LEGENDScenario'2020_s3_LOLE'-value'P95'
0 hours0…10 hours10…20 hours20…30 hours30…40 hours40…>50 hours
SE1SE2SE3SE4SISKTRITLU
LEGENDScenario'2020_s3_LOLE'-value'average'
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2025 Loss of load expectations (LOLE1) – base case
Isolatedorsemi-isolatedcountriesmoreexposedtoadequacyrisk
0 hours0…10 hours10…20 hours20…30 hours30…40 hours40…>50 hours
SE1SE2SE3SE4SISKTRITLU
LEGENDScenario'2025_s3_LOLE'-value'average'
0 hours0…10 hours10…20 hours20…30 hours30…40 hours40…>50 hours
SE1SE2SE3SE4SISKTRITLU
LEGENDScenario'2025_s3_LOLE'-value'P95'
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old maintenance
plan
new maintenance
plan
Poland LOLE in 2020 [hours/year]
Revision and effect of maintenance schedules – the case of Poland
• Several Polish generators expected to schedule maintenance to fulfil new Best Available Technologies standards around 2020 à substantial PL generator unavailability conservatively assumed by Polish TSO
Previous assumptions (before May 2017)
• Preliminary results of the MAF identified extremely high levels of LOLE / ENS in 2020, also due to import constraints on synchronous profile
… entailed substantial adequacy issues in MAF 2017 calculations
• In May 2017, PSE coordinated bilateral meetings with Polish utilities• à Triggered a revision of maintenance schedules• à Coordinated assumptions allowed huge improvement of PL reliability
• NOTEfromPSE:ThisdoesNOTpreventgeneratorsfromconsideringeconomicdecommissioning, howeverPolandplans toimplementcapacitymarkettoeffectivelyincreasethesystemreliability
… and triggered an important revision of assumptions
MAFfacilitatestheexchangeandcoordinationofinformationandactivities
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Impact of climatic years: example of 19851985
ExtremeclimateconditionshavelargeimpactonresultsCommonstandardsneeded:data,models,metrics
Sou
rce:
Met
eo-F
ranc
e
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Mothballing sensitivity à large uncertainty…
Importance tohavereliablegenerationplanfromutility(min3-5years)Crucialtogetclearpicture
à 15% capacity reduction vs. base case
Mothballing in 45% of the countries significantly impact adequacy in 82% of the countries
01000200030004000500060007000
PL DE
FR HU AT BE ITs
HR
GR IE
DKe LT
ITcn BA FI BG RS
SK CY
ITn
ITsa
rLV
Mot
hbal
led
capa
city
[MW
]
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…with wide effect à strong interdependency
Significantimpactonadequacyinalargerregion
Coordinatedstudiesneeded
2025 - Average LOLE for base case and mothballingsensitivity
LOLE’s increase in country with mothballing
LOLE’s increase in country withoutmothballing
Bidding Zone with mothballing capacity, negligible LOLE
NO mothballing capacity, negligible LOLE
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Reliability standards throughout Europe
Largevariationinreliabilitystandardsandthresholds
Sou
rce:
AC
ER
/CE
ER
mon
itorin
g re
port
of IE
M (2
016)
Commonassumptionsneeded:isolatedorinterconnected?
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Interdependent measures to eliminate distortions
CleanEnergyPackage:“WheretheEuropeanresourceadequacyassessmentidentifiesaresourceadequacyconcernMemberStatesshallidentifyanyregulatorydistortions thatcausedorcontributed totheemergenceoftheconcern”
StrongPan-EuropeanandtechnologicalinterdependenciesNeedtocoordinateandalignactivities
Adequacy
Generation Capacity
Inter-connection
Flexibility
Demand-Side
Response
Energy Efficiency
Storage
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Probabilistic assessment of the residual load 𝑅𝐿 = 𝐿 −𝑊 − 𝑆 − 𝑚𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑛
Adequacy Forecast – need for flexibility
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𝑅𝐿 = 𝐿 −𝑊 − 𝑆 − 𝑚𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑢𝑛
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
DE TR GB FR ES ITn PL NL
NOs
SE3 AT BE CZ GR
ITcs PT FI
ITcn HU CH RO IE BG RS ITs
DKw SK SE4
ITsic
HR
DKe SI
NOm AL NI
SE2 LT BA
NOn LV EE MK
ITsar
CY SE1
LUg
ME
LUf IS MT
LUb
DKkf
DEkf
HourlyResidualLoadRa
mps[GW
]
Absolutevaluesofhourlyresidualloadramps(99.9thPercentile)
10.3 9.3 8.47.2
5.6 5.43.3 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4
-9.9
-5.9-8.6
-5.0 -4.7-3.6 -3.0
-1.5 -1.8 -1.3 -1.1 -1.5
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
DE TR GB FR ES ITn PL NL NOs SE3 AT BEHo
urlyResidualLoadRa
mps[GW
]
Absolutevaluesofhourlyresidualloadramps(99.9thPercentile)
Adequacy Forecast – need for flexibility
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Conclusions & next steps
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In conclusion - upcoming challengesMAF à Further improvements
Stakeholdersà Decisions and support
Data • Extension of PECD with hydrological information
• Enhance Market DB
• Transparency Platform for (de)commissioning (3-5 years ahead)
• Rating of (de)commissioning assumptions (e.g. AAA, BB-, …)?
Models • Flow-based method• Ramping constraints
• Definition and conformity assessment of models?
Metrics • Economic indicators• Quantification of system
interdependencies
• Definition of reliability standards
Goal: Enhanced usefulness for all stakeholders
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Adoptmeasurestoeliminatedistortions
DataCollection
EuropeanModelling&Analysis
StakeholderConsultation
Regional&NationalAnalysis
Embedding the MAF to unfold its full potential MAF2019
MAF2018
MAF2017…
DataCollection
…09/2017
11/2017
Reportanddataset,jointlywithENTSOs’scenarios